Modeling epidemic spread with awareness and heterogeneous transmission rates in networks

During an epidemic outbreak in a human population, susceptibility to infection can be reduced by raising awareness of the disease. In this paper, we investigate the effects of three forms of awareness (i.e., contact, local, and global) on the spread of a disease in a random network. Connectivity-correlated transmission rates are assumed. By using the mean-field theory and numerical simulation, we show that both local and contact awareness can raise the epidemic thresholds while the global awareness cannot, which mirrors the recent results of Wu et al. The obtained results point out that individual behaviors in the presence of an infectious disease has a great influence on the epidemic dynamics. Our method enriches mean-field analysis in epidemic models.     

Spatial spread of an epidemic through public transportation systems with a hub

This article investigates an epidemic spreading among several locations through a transportation system, with a hub connecting these locations. Public transportation is not only a bridge through which infections travel from one location to another but also a place where infections occur since individuals are typically in close proximity to each other due to the limited space in these systems. A mathematical model is constructed to study the spread of an infectious disease through such systems. A variant of the next generation method is proposed and used to provide upper and lower bounds of the basic reproduction number for the model. Our investigation indicates that increasing transportation efficiency, and improving sanitation and ventilation of the public transportation system decrease the chance of an outbreak occurring. Moreover, discouraging unnecessary travel during an epidemic also decreases the chance of an outbreak. However, reducing travel by infectives while allowing susceptibles to travel may not be enough to avoid an outbreak.     

Host mating system and the spread of a disease-resistant allele in a population

The model presented here modifies a susceptible-infected (SI) host–pathogen model to determine the influence of mating system on the outcome of a host–pathogen interaction. Both deterministic and stochastic (individual-based) versions of the model were used. This model considers the potential consequences of varying mating systems on the rate of spread of both the pathogen and resistance alleles within the population. We assumed that a single allele for disease resistance was sufficient to confer complete resistance in an individual, and that both homozygote and heterozygote resistant individuals had the same mean birth and death rates. When disease invaded a population with only an initial small fraction of resistant genes, inbreeding (selfing) tended to increase the probability that the disease would soon be eliminated from a small population rather than become endemic, while outcrossing greatly increased the probability that the population would become extinct due to the disease.     

我国蜜蜂主要病原检测技术

蜜蜂是重要的经济昆虫。蜜蜂病害威胁蜜蜂产业的发展。蜜蜂病害检测及病原鉴定是病害防治的基础。文章详细介绍我国蜜蜂常见6种主要病害(美洲幼虫腐臭病,欧洲幼虫腐臭病,囊状幼虫病,慢性麻痹病,微孢子虫病,白垩病)的病原快速准确的检测方法。     

A geographical spread of vaccine-resistance in avian influenza epidemics

Vaccination can be a useful tool for control of avian influenza outbreaks in poultry, but its use is reconsidered in most of the countries worldwide because of its negative effects on the disease control. One of the most important negative effects is the potential for emergence of vaccine-resistant viruses. Actually, in the vaccination program in China and Mexico, several vaccine-resistant strains were confirmed. Vaccine-resistant strains usually cause a loss of the protection effectiveness of vaccination. Therefore, a vaccination program that engenders the emergence of the resistant strain might promote the spread of the resistant strain and undermine the control of the infectious disease, even if the vaccination protects against the transmission of a vaccine-sensitive strain. We designed and analyzed a deterministic patch-structured model in heterogeneous areas (with or without vaccination) illustrating transmission of vaccine-sensitive and vaccine-resistant strains during a vaccination program. We found that the vaccination program can eradicate the vaccine-sensitive strain but lead to a prevalence of vaccine-resistant strain. Further, interestingly, the replacement of viral strain could occur in another area without vaccination through a migration of non-infectious individuals due to an illegal trade of poultry. It is also a novel result that only a complete eradication of both strains in vaccination area can achieve the complete eradication in another areas. Thus we can obtain deeper understanding of an effect of vaccination for better development of vaccination strategies to control avian influenza spread.     

Reproductive numbers, epidemic spread and control in a community of households

Many of the studies on emerging epidemics (such as SARS and pandemic flu) use mass action models to estimate reproductive numbers and the needed control measures. In reality, transmission patterns are more complex due to the presence of various social networks. One level of complexity can be accommodated by considering a community of households. Our study of transmission dynamics in a community of households emphasizes five types of reproductive numbers for the epidemic spread: household-to-household reproductive number, leaky vaccine-associated reproductive numbers, perfect vaccine reproductive number, growth rate reproductive number, and the individual reproductive number. Each of those carries different information about the transmission dynamics and the required control measures, and often some of those can be estimated from the data while others cannot. Simulations have shown that under certain scenarios there is an ordering for those reproductive numbers. We have proven a number of ordering inequalities under general assumptions about the individual infectiousness profiles. Those inequalities allow, for instance, to estimate the needed vaccine coverage and other control measures without knowing the various transmission parameters in the models. Along the way, we have also shown that in choosing between increasing vaccine efficacy and increasing coverage levels by the same factor, preference should go to efficacy.     

Temporal and spatial spread of Lettuce mosaic virus in lettuce crops in central Spain: factors involved in Lettuce mosaic virus epidemics

Lettuce mosaic virus (LMV) is transmitted by aphid vectors in a nonpersistent manner as well as by seeds. The virus causes severe disease outbreaks in commercial lettuce crops in several regions of Spain. The temporal and spatial patterns of spread of LMV were studied in autumn 2002 in the central region of Spain. Symptomatic lettuce (var. Cazorla) plant samples were collected weekly, first at the seedling stage from the greenhouse nursery and later outdoors after transplantation. The exact position of symptomatic plants sampled in the field was recorded and then material was tested by enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay to assess virus infection. Cumulative spatial data for infected plants at different growth stages were analysed using spatial analysis by distance indices. For temporal analysis, the monomolecular, Gompertz, logistic and exponential models were evaluated for goodness of fit to the entire set of disease progress data obtained. The results indicated that the disease progress curve of LMV epidemics in the selected area is best described by a Gompertz model and that the epidemic follows a polycyclic disease progression. Our data suggest that secondary cycle of spread occurs when noncolonising aphid species land on the primary infected plants (probably coming from infected seed) and move to adjacent plants before leaving the crop. The role of weeds growing close to lettuce fields as potential inoculum sources of virus and the aphid species most likely involved in the transmission of LMV were also identified.     

中国海域海洋生物的营养级指数变化特征

利用联合国粮农组织(FAO)1950-2011年渔获物捕捞量资料, 分析了我国海域(包括大陆海域、台湾海域、香港海域和澳门海域)129种渔获物的营养级指数变化特征。研究表明, 1950-1974年我国海洋营养级指数在3.45左右波动, 1975-1978年下降至3.35左右, 1982-1987年急剧下降到3.25并维持到1996年, 1997-2011年平稳回升至3.34。与全球海洋营养级指数相比, 1984年之前我国高于全球水平, 而1984年之后则低于全球水平。就生物类群而言, 鱼类对我国海洋营养级指数的贡献最大, 达73.1-85.8%; 甲壳动物次之, 为9.2-15.5%; 软体动物较小, 为3.3-11.6%; 其他无脊椎动物的贡献最小, 不超过1.8%。过度捕捞使我国部分渔获物由原来的长寿命、高营养级的底层鱼类变为现在的短寿命、低营养级的无脊椎动物和中上层鱼类。渔业捕捞许可管理制度、禁渔期和禁渔区制度、海洋捕捞产量“零增长”和“负增长”计划、增殖放流、扩大海洋保护区面积等措施的实施可能是我国海洋营养级指数回升的主要原因。     

Marine range shifts and species introductions: comparative spread rates and community impacts

Aim Shifts in species ranges are a predicted and realized effect of global climate change; however, few studies have addressed the rates and consequence of such shifts, particularly in marine systems. Given ecological similarities between shifting and introduced species, we examined how our understanding of range shifts may be informed by the more established study of non‐native species introductions. Location Marine systems world‐wide. Methods Database and citation searches were used to identify 129 marine species experiencing range shifts and to determine spread rates and impacts on recipient communities. Analyses of spread rates were based on studies for which post‐establishment spread was reported in linear distance. The sizes of the effects of community impacts of shifting species were compared with those of functionally similar introduced species having ecologically similar impacts. Results Our review and meta‐analyses revealed that: (1) 75% of the range shifts found through the database search were in the poleward direction, consistent with climate change scenarios, (2) spread rates of range shifts were lower than those of introductions, (3) shifting species spread over an order of magnitude faster in marine than in terrestrial systems, and (4) directions of community effects were largely negative and magnitudes were often similar for shifters and introduced species; however, this comparison was limited by few data for range‐shifting species. Main conclusions Although marine range shifts are likely to proceed more slowly than marine introductions, the community‐level effects could be as great, and in the same direction, as those of introduced species. Because it is well‐established that introduced species are a primary threat to global biodiversity, it follows that, just like introductions, range shifts have the potential to seriously affect biological systems. In addition, given that ranges shift faster in marine than terrestrial environments, marine communities might be affected faster than terrestrial ones as species shift with climate change. Regardless of habitat, consideration of range shifts in the context of invasion biology can improve our understanding of what to expect from climate change‐driven shifts as well as provide tools for formal assessment of risks to community structure and function.     

Illustration of some limits of the Markov assumption for transition between groups in models of spread of an infectious pathogen in a structured herd

In epidemic models concerning a structured population, sojourn times in a group are usually described by an exponential distribution. For livestock populations, realistic distributions may be preferred for group changes (e.g. depending on sojourn time). We illustrated the effect on pathogen spread of the use of an exponential distribution, instead of the true distribution of the transition time, between groups for a population separated into two groups (youngstock, adults) when this true distribution is a triangular one. Concerning the epidemic process, two assumptions were defined: one type of excreting animal (SIR model), and two types of excreting animals (transiently or persistently infected animals). The study was conducted with two indirect-transmission levels between groups. Among the adults, the epidemic size and the last infection time were significantly different. For persistence, epidemic sizes (in the entire population and in youngstock) and first infection time, results varied according to models (excretion assumption, indirect-transmission level).     

植物病原物的群体遗传学

品种单一化、生产密集型和一年多茬的现代农业特点导致病原物呈现出进化速度加快、致病力增强及流行风险增大趋势。深入研究病原物群体遗传学对认识病害的流行、有效选育和使用抗性品种乃至控制病害具有重要意义。文章阐述了植物病原物群体遗传学的研究目标和内容、突变、基因迁移、基因重组、随机遗传漂变和自然选择5大遗传机制在植物病原物进化过程中的作用,以及目前植物病原物群体遗传学研究的现状。     

Improving marine disease surveillance through sea temperature monitoring,outlooks and projections

To forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host–pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 12°C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 12°C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats.     

Potential spread of the invasive plant Hydrilla verticillata in South Africa based on anthropogenic spread and climate suitability

Hydrilla verticillata (L.f.) Royle is a submerged aquatic plant native to Asia and Australia that is highly invasive in the USA and was first recorded in South Africa in 2006. It is only known from one locality, Pongolapoort Dam in KwaZulu-Natal Province, but there are fears that it might spread to other sites. The primary vector of spread in the USA is recreational boaters and anglers. A survey at a fishing competition on Pongolapoort Dam showed that anglers travel considerable distances around South Africa (73% of water bodies were >200 km, visited by 68% of the respondents). A Threat Index for freshwater bodies throughout South Africa visited by participants of the competition was calculated showing that dams in the vicinity of the infestation were more at risk from invasion. Further, the potential distribution of the weed based on climatic matching with the region of origin showed that most of the country was suitable for establishment, with the exception of the high-lying interior of the country. Recommendations for reducing the potential spread of hydrilla in South Africa are presented.     

植物病原物的群体遗传学

品种单一化、生产密集型和一年多茬的现代农业特点导致病原物呈现出进化速度加快、致病力增强及流行风险增大趋势。深入研究病原物群体遗传学对认识病害的流行、有效选育和使用抗性品种乃至控制病害具有重要意义。文章阐述了植物病原物群体遗传学的研究目标和内容、突变、基因迁移、基因重组、随机遗传漂变和自然选择5大遗传机制在植物病原物进化过程中的作用, 以及目前植物病原物群体遗传学研究的现状。     

Migrate or evolve: options for plant pathogens under climate change

Findings on climate change influence on plant pathogens are often inconsistent and context dependent. Knowledge of pathogens affecting agricultural crops and natural plant communities remains fragmented along disciplinary lines. By broadening the perspective beyond agriculture, this review integrates cross‐disciplinary knowledge to show that at scales relevant to climate change, accelerated evolution and changing geographic distribution will be the main implications for pathogens. New races may evolve rapidly under elevated temperature and CO₂, as evolutionary forces act on massive pathogen populations boosted by a combination of increased fecundity and infection cycles under favourable microclimate within enlarged canopy. Changing geographic distribution will bring together diverse lineages/genotypes that do not share common ecological niche, potentially increasing pathogen diversity. However, the uncertainty of model predictions and a lack of synthesis of fragmented knowledge remain as major deficiencies in knowledge. The review contends that the failure to consider scale and human intervention through new technology are major sources of uncertainty. Recognizing that improved biophysical models alone will not reduce uncertainty, it proposes a generic framework to increase focus and outlines ways to integrate biophysical elements and technology change with human intervention scenarios to minimize uncertainty. To synthesize knowledge of pathogen biology and life history, the review borrows the concept of ‘fitness’ from population biology as a comprehensive measure of pathogen strengths and vulnerabilities, and explores the implications of pathogen mode of nutrition to fitness and its interactions with plants suffering chronic abiotic stress under climate change. Current and future disease management options can then be judged for their ability to impair pathogenic and saprophytic fitness. The review pinpoints improving confidence in model prediction by minimizing uncertainty, developing management strategies to reduce overall pathogen fitness, and finding new sources of data to trawl for climate signatures on pathogens as important challenges for future research.     

贝类中致病微生物的检测技术及其组织分布

摘要:贝类是食源性致病微生物的重要传播载体之一,因食用贝类导致食源性疾病的发病率逐年升高。因此,贝类食用安全监测与控制成为食品安全研究的重点。近几年,笔者在贝类中主要致病微生物分子检测、累积分布和控制等方面开展了一系列研究。本文结合国内外的研究进展,对贝类中致病微生物的检测方法、组织分布、净化以及流行病学等方面展开论述。综合国内外研究结论发现,分子检测方法已成为贝类中致病微生物检测的主要手段。另外,贝类中致病微生物主要累积富集在鳃组织和消化腺(包括肠胃和消化盲囊)中,这为致病微生物的检测靶向性提供了理论指导。     

硝酸银对常见呼吸道病原体的抑制作用

目的证实硝酸银对常见呼吸道病原体具有抑制作用。方法采用血凝试验和鸡胚培养法观察硝酸银对副流感病毒的抑制作用;采用细胞培养法观察硝酸银对腺病毒的抑制作用;采用细菌培养法观察硝酸银对肺炎链球菌和乙型溶血型链球菌的抑制作用。结果硝酸银对副流感病毒和腺病毒有明显的抑制作用,对肺炎链球菌和乙型溶血型链球菌有极强的杀菌作用。结论硝酸银对常见呼吸道病原体有明显的抑制作用。     

非幽门螺杆菌：一类人兽共患病病原菌

过去的几十年,非幽门螺旋杆菌的研究迅速发展,他们不仅能感染和人类密切相关的动物,在人类的胃肠、肝胆及其他系统的疾病中也起着重要的作用,是一类人兽共患病病原菌。     

In vitro activity of glucosinolate-derived isothiocyanates against postharvest fruit pathogens*

The authors assayed the ability of some reaction products, essentially isothiocyanates, derived from the myrosinase-catalysed hydrolysis (neutral pH) of six natural glucosinolates to inhibit germination and mycelial growth of Botrytis cinerea, Rhizopus stolonifer, Monilinia laxa, Mucor piriformis and Penicillium expansum, the leading postharvest fungal pathogens of fruit and vegetable crops. All of the tested products showed antifungal activity, although they proved less effective against mycelial growth than in germination control. The isothiocyanates produced by enzymatic hydrolysis of glucoraphenin, sinalbin and sinigrin were particularly effective because they completely inhibited conidic germination of all five pathogens considered. The sinigrin-derived isothiocyanate exhibited a wide pathogen-control spectrum, either inhibiting conidia germination altogether or delaying by 3–6 days the onset of mycelial growth compared to the control.