个体运动的病毒传播行为模拟

提出了一个基于二维规则网格的SIS(Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible)动态疾病传播模型,并用元胞自动机方法进行计算机模拟,考查该模型中感染概率、治愈概率、人群密度及人群的流动对疾病传播的影响,结果表明,系统的稳态感染比例随感染概率和人群密度的增加而增大,随治愈概率的增加而减小,同等条件下流动人群比静止人群更容易传播疾病,根据这些研究结论最后给出了对应的疾病预防和控制措施。     

Modeling epidemic spread with awareness and heterogeneous transmission rates in networks

During an epidemic outbreak in a human population, susceptibility to infection can be reduced by raising awareness of the disease. In this paper, we investigate the effects of three forms of awareness (i.e., contact, local, and global) on the spread of a disease in a random network. Connectivity-correlated transmission rates are assumed. By using the mean-field theory and numerical simulation, we show that both local and contact awareness can raise the epidemic thresholds while the global awareness cannot, which mirrors the recent results of Wu et al. The obtained results point out that individual behaviors in the presence of an infectious disease has a great influence on the epidemic dynamics. Our method enriches mean-field analysis in epidemic models.     

Spatial spread of an epidemic through public transportation systems with a hub

This article investigates an epidemic spreading among several locations through a transportation system, with a hub connecting these locations. Public transportation is not only a bridge through which infections travel from one location to another but also a place where infections occur since individuals are typically in close proximity to each other due to the limited space in these systems. A mathematical model is constructed to study the spread of an infectious disease through such systems. A variant of the next generation method is proposed and used to provide upper and lower bounds of the basic reproduction number for the model. Our investigation indicates that increasing transportation efficiency, and improving sanitation and ventilation of the public transportation system decrease the chance of an outbreak occurring. Moreover, discouraging unnecessary travel during an epidemic also decreases the chance of an outbreak. However, reducing travel by infectives while allowing susceptibles to travel may not be enough to avoid an outbreak.     

Host mating system and the spread of a disease-resistant allele in a population

The model presented here modifies a susceptible-infected (SI) host–pathogen model to determine the influence of mating system on the outcome of a host–pathogen interaction. Both deterministic and stochastic (individual-based) versions of the model were used. This model considers the potential consequences of varying mating systems on the rate of spread of both the pathogen and resistance alleles within the population. We assumed that a single allele for disease resistance was sufficient to confer complete resistance in an individual, and that both homozygote and heterozygote resistant individuals had the same mean birth and death rates. When disease invaded a population with only an initial small fraction of resistant genes, inbreeding (selfing) tended to increase the probability that the disease would soon be eliminated from a small population rather than become endemic, while outcrossing greatly increased the probability that the population would become extinct due to the disease.     

Effect of systemic diseases on clonal integration: modelling approach

Systemic disease spread has been suggested as a possible disadvantage of clonal plant integration. As connected ramets have higher risk of being infected, disease should cause a selective pressure against clonality. Since experimental tests of this hypothesis are not easy to perform, we chose a modelling approach, by which we could easily separate different factors influencing the process. We used a spatially explicit model of clonal growth with disease spread implemented and we tested the hypothesis that systemic disease decreases the competitive ability of highly integrated clonal plants when compared to less integrated plants with the same parameters. In contrast to our expectations, the integrator was competitively stronger than the splitter in most cases and it lost only when the disease severity and infection rates were very high. We think that the larger the integrated network is, the better the plant utilises its translocation ability. Even a very small amount of resource sharing greatly increased the relative success of the integrator and larger integrators were competitively stronger than the smaller ones. Our results also indicate that although the same infection rate caused more systemic disease in the integrator than in the splitter population, the disease has only a limited potential to select for the splitter strategy. This is caused not only by the advantages of the clonal integration but also by the fact that there is only a small range of infection rates at which there is sufficient difference in disease impact between the strategies.     

Comparative studies of eleven isolates of the fungal entomopathogen Tolypocladium cylindrosporum and two isolates of Tolypocladium extinguens

The virulence of 11 isolates of Tolypocladium cylindrosporum and 2 isolates of Tolypocladium extinguens was evaluated against mosquito larvae. Second-instar Aedes aegypti larvae were more susceptible to infection by blastospores than were second-instar Anopheles stephensi larvae. Only the T. extinguens isolates were not infectious for A. aegypti or A. stephensi. Nine of the remaining strains killed 100% of larvae at the highest dose tested (10⁶ blastospores/ml). In vitro sporulation and conidiospore size were also studied. Significant differences were observed for both characteristics. Characterization of strains according to in vitro sporulation and virulence made it possible to select the most promising strains for future laboratory and field tests against mosquitoes.     

Population models for diseases with no recovery

An S I epidemic model with a general shape of density-dependent mortality and incidence rate is studied. The asymptotic behaviour is global convergence to an endemic equilibrium, above a threshold, and to a disease-free equilibrium, below the threshold. The effect of vaccination is then examined.     

Growth rate and basic reproduction number for population models with a simple periodic factor

For continuous-time population models with a periodic factor which is sinusoidal, both the growth rate and the basic reproduction number are shown to be the largest roots of simple equations involving continued fractions. As an example, we reconsider an SEIS model with a fixed latent period, an exponentially distributed infectious period and a sinusoidal contact rate studied in Williams and Dye [B.G. Williams, C. Dye, Infectious disease persistence when transmission varies seasonally, Math. Biosci. 145 (1997) 77]. We show that apart from a few exceptional parameter values, the epidemic threshold depends not only on the mean contact rate, but also on the amplitude of fluctuations.     

流行病免疫规律的随机模型研究

本文提出了流行病免疫规律的随机过程模型,给出了一定条件下个体从不具有免疫力向具有免疫力转移或相反方向转移的转移概率表达式,并给出了各年龄组人群中获得抗性的个体比例．以广州市正常人群甲型病毒性肝炎为例研究模型的具体应用．     

Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data

We propose a mathematical model to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. The model consists of six subpopulations, namely susceptible, exposed, quarantined, suspect, probable and removed, as China started to report SARS cases as suspect and probable separately from April 27 and cases transferred from suspect class to probable class from May 2. By simplifying the model to a two-compartment suspect-probable model and a single-compartment probable model and using limited data, we are able to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. We estimate that the reproduction number varies from 1.0698 to 3.2524 and obtain certain important epidemiological parameters.     

我国蜜蜂主要病原检测技术

蜜蜂是重要的经济昆虫。蜜蜂病害威胁蜜蜂产业的发展。蜜蜂病害检测及病原鉴定是病害防治的基础。文章详细介绍我国蜜蜂常见6种主要病害(美洲幼虫腐臭病,欧洲幼虫腐臭病,囊状幼虫病,慢性麻痹病,微孢子虫病,白垩病)的病原快速准确的检测方法。     

A geographical spread of vaccine-resistance in avian influenza epidemics

Vaccination can be a useful tool for control of avian influenza outbreaks in poultry, but its use is reconsidered in most of the countries worldwide because of its negative effects on the disease control. One of the most important negative effects is the potential for emergence of vaccine-resistant viruses. Actually, in the vaccination program in China and Mexico, several vaccine-resistant strains were confirmed. Vaccine-resistant strains usually cause a loss of the protection effectiveness of vaccination. Therefore, a vaccination program that engenders the emergence of the resistant strain might promote the spread of the resistant strain and undermine the control of the infectious disease, even if the vaccination protects against the transmission of a vaccine-sensitive strain. We designed and analyzed a deterministic patch-structured model in heterogeneous areas (with or without vaccination) illustrating transmission of vaccine-sensitive and vaccine-resistant strains during a vaccination program. We found that the vaccination program can eradicate the vaccine-sensitive strain but lead to a prevalence of vaccine-resistant strain. Further, interestingly, the replacement of viral strain could occur in another area without vaccination through a migration of non-infectious individuals due to an illegal trade of poultry. It is also a novel result that only a complete eradication of both strains in vaccination area can achieve the complete eradication in another areas. Thus we can obtain deeper understanding of an effect of vaccination for better development of vaccination strategies to control avian influenza spread.     

2007年重庆市流脑流行季节前健康人群抗体水平和带菌率调查

为了解重庆市流脑流行季节前健康人群免疫水平和带菌状况,预测发病趋势,提出新的免疫策略,提供有效的预防措施。按照全国流脑监测方案并结合重庆市2006年流脑疫情情况,选择重庆市北碚区、长寿区和万盛区为2007年流脑监测点,采集0~、5~、10~、15~、25~、35~及45岁以上共7个年龄组人群的静脉血和咽拭子,分别进行抗体水平和带菌率检测。结果显示,重庆市健康人群A群流脑IgG抗体的阳性率为76.02%(485/638),C群流脑IgG抗体的阳性率为47.65%(304/638),健康人群脑膜炎奈瑟菌(简称Nm)带菌率为0.47%(3/638)。重庆市健康人群A群流脑IgG抗体阳性率维持在较高水平,而C群流脑IgG抗体的阳性率较低,提示该市大部分人群对A群流脑有免疫作用,但C群抗体水平较低,有引起局部流脑爆发的风险。     

胶东半岛苹果绵蚜的扩散为害及防治研究

研究结果表明：胶东半岛苹果绵蚜的扩散原因,主要是部分果园管理粗放,其次是气候适宜,寄主种类多,天敌不能有效控害,传播途径多。经测定苹果绵蚜为害苹果的产量损失率为4．10—38．81％。防治苹果绵蚜主要采用刮除树干、枝粗翘皮,铲除根蘖,药波喷树干、枝和蓓根,药泥堵树洞,高倍内吸药液涂刷树干、枝等。     

Illustration of some limits of the Markov assumption for transition between groups in models of spread of an infectious pathogen in a structured herd

In epidemic models concerning a structured population, sojourn times in a group are usually described by an exponential distribution. For livestock populations, realistic distributions may be preferred for group changes (e.g. depending on sojourn time). We illustrated the effect on pathogen spread of the use of an exponential distribution, instead of the true distribution of the transition time, between groups for a population separated into two groups (youngstock, adults) when this true distribution is a triangular one. Concerning the epidemic process, two assumptions were defined: one type of excreting animal (SIR model), and two types of excreting animals (transiently or persistently infected animals). The study was conducted with two indirect-transmission levels between groups. Among the adults, the epidemic size and the last infection time were significantly different. For persistence, epidemic sizes (in the entire population and in youngstock) and first infection time, results varied according to models (excretion assumption, indirect-transmission level).