Migratory waterfowls as indicators to assess the protection efficiency in Iran

There are high numbers of endangered birds in Iran. Birds also are indicators of biodiversity in different landscapes and using birds as indicator give us a complete overview about the ecological status of the landscape. In the present study migratory waterfowls were used to identify biodiversity hotspots in Iran. Iran is an interesting place for ornithologists because it is in fact a crossroads of flyways for migratory waterfowls coming from Europe, southern Asia, and Siberia. We predicted the habitat distributions for 27 bird species of Anseriformes in Iran using an ensemble forecasting framework to identify biodiversity hotspots. Moreover, we measured the percentage of overlap between hotspots and protected areas including Ramsar sites. The results showed that suitable habitats for different bird species greatly varied among different ecosystems and they showed dissimilar responses to environmental variables. However, for most species digital elevation model (DEM) was the most important variable in predicting suitable habitats. Our study also revealed that 36.02% of Iran can be considered as suitable habitats for the species and the highest suitability belongs to areas along Zagros and Alborz mountain ranges. Furthermore, the suitable habitats had 7.10% overlap with protected areas and 75% with Ramsar sites. The low overlap between hotspots and protected areas demonstrated the shortage of biodiversity protection in Iran. Therefore, it is essential to select new protected areas based on biodiversity hotspots, and to develop a network of protected areas within those hotspots in Iran.     

Vulnerability of Australian tropical savanna birds to climate change

Assessments of species vulnerability to climate change should increase the effectiveness of interventions in the current decline in biodiversity. Species vulnerability to climate change is a consequence of their sensitivity and adaptive capacity, in combination with their exposure to climate change. We apply a vulnerability assessment framework to 243 bird species inhabiting the tropical savannas of northern Australia. We build on previous vulnerability studies by including detailed data for variables relating to species sensitivity to change (relative abundance, clutch size, sensitivity to fire and distribution area), species adaptive capacity (movement behaviour and dietary breadth) and proportional changes predicted for their geographic range (i.e. exposure to climate change). These are integrated to provide a ranking of vulnerability. Our analysis found that birds of Australian tropical savannas cluster together with high sensitivity, with a few wide‐ranging increasing species with very low sensitivity. Australian tropical savanna birds have a range of adaptive capacities, and the impact of climate change on these species is predicted to be substantial. Two already endangered species are among the most vulnerable. Species largely restricted to Cape York Peninsula (a geographically distinct region) had the greatest overall vulnerability; these species were, in general, sensitive due to small distributions, sensitivity to fire frequency and had a lower capacity for dispersal. It will be important for the future of Australian tropical savanna birds to mitigate ecological threats and maintain extensive areas of suitable habitat to facilitate species dispersal.     

气候变化背景下野生动物脆弱性评估方法研究进展

脆弱性评估是研究气候变化影响野生动物的重要内容,识别野生动物脆弱性,是适应和减缓气候变化影响的关键和基础。开展气候变化背景下野生动物的脆弱性评估工作,目的是为了确定易受气候变化影响的物种和明确导致物种脆弱性的因素,其评估结果有助于人类认识气候变化对野生动物的影响,为野生动物适应气候变化保护对策的制定提供科学依据。对野生动物而言(物种),脆弱性是物种受气候变化影响的程度,包括暴露度、敏感性和适应能力三大要素。其中,暴露度是由气候变化引起的外在因素,如温度、降雨量、极值天气等;敏感性是受物种自身因素影响,如种间关系、耐受性等;适应能力是物种通过自身调整来减小气候变化带来的影响,如迁移或扩散到适宜生境的能力、塑性反应和进化反应等。对近期有关气候变化背景下野生动物脆弱性评估方法予以综述,比较每种评估方法所选取指标的差异,总结在脆弱性评估中遇到的不确定性指标的处理方法,以及脆弱性评估结果在野生动物适应气候变化对策中的应用。通过总结野生动物脆弱性评估方法,以期为气候变化背景下评估我国野生动物资源的脆弱性提供参考方法。     

Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds,Amphibians and Corals

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.     

Assessing the climate change effects on the distribution pattern of the Azerbaijan Mountain Newt (Neurergus crocatus)

Climate change is a grave danger for humans and a looming threat to Earth's biodiversity in the twenty-first century. Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change is critical for practical conservation efforts. Due to their limited dispersal ability, amphibians are one of the most vulnerable groups of vertebrates to climate change. Among them, the species that inhabit mountains suffer a tremendous amount of climate change-induced pressures. We, therefore, adopted the Azerbaijan Mountain Newt (Neurergus crocatus), which currently inhabits Northwest Iran, North Iraq, and Southeast Turkey, as a case study for assessing the effects of climate change on the distribution patterns of mountain amphibians. By applying the species distribution models (SDMs) in this study, we tried to hindcast the species distribution area in the past and illustrate the impacts of climate change on its distribution in the present and future (the 2050s and 2070s) climate conditions. Also, the patch metrics have been deployed for identifying habitat fragmentation. Our results indicate a more than 50% rise in the species’ current suitable habitats compared to its glacial refugia. The suitable habitat is expected to gradually decrease in RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Among the three countries in which the species occurs, its distribution overlaps with protected areas only in Iraq. The number of habitat patches will grow and reach approximately 20 to 60 patches by 2070 and the average area of the patches will decrease throughout this time. Aside from the numerous threats that endanger the species, climate change puts the long-term existence of Azerbaijan Newt in jeopardy. The results of this study stress the urgent need for taking extreme measures on the species management and conserving its remnant habitat patches.     

Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios

Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this "realistic" dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species' range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of vulnerable species.     

A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.     

气候变化对物种脆弱性影响的多组分评估——以中国山杏为例

气候变化威胁着全球生物多样性,评估物种脆弱性是研究气候变化对生物多样性影响的关键所在。目前多数研究主要通过物种适宜区面积变化来判断物种脆弱性,这单一维度会忽略其它因素的影响。采用多组分评估框架,将物种适宜区面积变化、生境破碎程度变化、受保护面积变化和人类干扰程度变化四个组分纳入物种总体脆弱性指数中,以中国具有较高经济和生态价值的山杏(Armeniaca sibirica)作为研究对象,评估未来(2061—2080年)三种共享社会经济路径(ssp)ssp126、ssp245、ssp585下山杏物种脆弱性。研究结果表明：未来山杏生境适宜区有向我国东北和西北方向扩张的趋势,扩张区面积明显大于消失区,这种差异化程度依赖于社会发展路径情景;未来适宜区内的保护区面积将由当前6.50×10⁴km²增加到1.10×10⁵km²(三种气候变化情景下的平均值),未来适宜生境破碎化程度将保持稳定,生境适宜区内的人类干扰强度将下降;各组分的比较中,受保护面积变化对山杏总体脆弱性的贡献将超过山杏适宜生境面积变化和其它组分的贡...     

Assessing the vulnerability of an assemblage of subtropical rainforest vertebrate species to climate change in south‐east Queensland

Global climate change is a threat to ecosystems that are rich in biodiversity and endemism, such as the World Heritage‐listed subtropical rainforests of central eastern Australia. Possible effects of climate change on the biota of tropical rainforests have been studied, but subtropical rainforests have received less attention. We analysed published data for an assemblage of 38 subtropical rainforest vertebrate species in four taxonomic groups to evaluate their relative vulnerability to climate change. Focusing on endemic and/or threatened species, we considered two aspects of vulnerability: (i) resistance, defined by indicators of rarity (geographical range, habitat specificity and local abundance); and (ii) resilience, defined by indicators of a species potential to recover (reproductive output, dispersal potential and climatic niche). Our analysis indicated that frogs are most vulnerable to climate change, followed by reptiles, birds, then mammals. Many species in our assemblage are regionally endemic montane rainforest specialists with high vulnerability. Monitoring of taxa in regenerating rainforest showed that many species with high resilience traits also persisted in disturbed habitat, suggesting that they have capacity to recolonize habitats after disturbance, that is climate change‐induced events. These results will allow us to prioritize adaptation strategies for species most at risk. We conclude that to safeguard the most vulnerable amphibian, reptile and bird species against climate change, climatically stable habitats (cool refugia) that are currently without protection status need to be identified, restored and incorporated in the current reserve system. Our study provides evidence that montane subtropical rainforest deserves highest protection status as habitat for vulnerable taxa.     

Using species distribution modeling to set management priorities for mammals in northern Thailand

Rapid deforestation has occurred in northern Thailand and is expected to continue. Thus, identification and protection of sufficient amounts of the highest quality habitat is urgent. Wildlife occurrence data were gathered along wildlife trails and patrolling routes in protected areas and forest patches outside of protected areas. Geographic Information Systems, bio-physical and anthropogenic variables were used to generate suitable habitats for 17 mammal species using maximum entropy theory (MAXENT). Suitable habitats for all species were aggregated, and used to set priorities for wildlife conservation in northern Thailand. In addition, predicted deforestation was overlaid on moderate and high priority areas to determine future wildlife threats and aid decision-making concerning which areas to protect. The results revealed that the total extent of suitable habitats for the studied species covers approximately 37% of the region. Nearly 70% of the total habitat for endangered and vulnerable species is predicted in large and contiguous protected areas. Threatened areas with high biodiversity encompass approximately 1.9% of the region, and 66% of this figure is predicted to occur in existing protected areas. Based on the model outcomes, we recommend reducing human pressures, enhancing the density of prey species and conservation outside protected areas, as well as increasing connectivity of suitable habitats among protected areas that are too small to maintain viable populations in isolation.     

A Global-Scale Evaluation of Primate Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Change

Human-induced climate change poses many potential threats to nonhuman primate species, many of which are already threatened by human activities such as deforestation, hunting, and the exotic pet trade. Here, we assessed the exposure and potential vulnerability of all nonhuman primate species to projected future temperature and precipitation changes. We found that overall, nonhuman primates will experience 10 % more warming than the global mean, with some primate species experiencing >1.5 °C for every °C of global warming. Precipitation changes are likely to be quite varied across primate ranges (from >7.5 % increases per °C of global warming to >7.5 % decreases). We also identified individual endangered species with existing vulnerabilities (owing to their small range areas, specialized diet, or restricted habitat use) that are expected to experience the largest climate changes. Finally, we defined hotspots of primate vulnerability to climate changes as areas with many primate species, high concentrations of endangered species, and large expected climate changes. Although all primate species will experience substantial changes from current climatic conditions, our hotspot analysis suggests that species in Central America, the Amazon, and southeastern Brazil, as well as portions of East and Southeast Asia, may be the most vulnerable to the anticipated impacts of global warming. It is essential that impacts of human-induced climate change be a priority for research and conservation planning in primatology, particularly for species that are already threatened by other human pressures. The vulnerable species and regional hotspots that we identify here represent critical priorities for conservation efforts, as existing challenges are expected to become increasingly compounded by the impacts of global warming.     

Are Mediterranean marine threatened species at high risk by climate change?

Rapid anthropogenic climate change is driving threatened biodiversity one step closer to extinction. Effects on native biodiversity are determined by an interplay between species' exposure to climate change and their specific ecological and life-history characteristics that render them even more susceptible. Impacts on biodiversity have already been reported, however, a systematic risk evaluation of threatened marine populations is lacking. Here, we employ a trait-based approach to assess the risk of 90 threatened marine Mediterranean species to climate change, combining species' exposure to increased sea temperature and intrinsic vulnerability. One-quarter of the threatened marine biodiversity of the Mediterranean Sea is predicted to be under elevated levels of climate risk, with various traits identified as key vulnerability traits. High-risk taxa including sea turtles, marine mammals, Anthozoa and Chondrichthyes are highlighted. Climate risk, vulnerability and exposure hotspots are distributed along the Western Mediterranean, Alboran, Aegean, and Adriatic Seas. At each Mediterranean marine ecoregion, 21%–31% of their threatened species have high climate risk. All Mediterranean marine protected areas host threatened species with high risk to climate change, with 90% having a minimum of 4 up to 19 species of high climate risk, making the objective of a climate-smart conservation strategy a crucial task for immediate planning and action. Our findings aspire to offer new insights for systematic, spatially strategic planning and prioritization of vulnerable marine life in the face of accelerating climate change.     

自然保护区生物标本资源共享子平台红外相机数据库建设进展

红外相机技术在野生动物调查研究中得到广泛应用, 其发展和普及为中国自然保护地生物多样性保护带来了诸多机会。为进一步推广该技术在我国自然保护地野生动物监测中的应用, 中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所在自然保护区生物标本资源共享子平台增设野生动物红外相机数据库专栏, 并通过门户网站“中国自然保护区生物标本资源共享平台” (http://www.papc.cn/)对外发布, 向公众开放, 可以随时查阅、下载信息。本文重点介绍了该平台的野生动物红外相机数据库建设进展, 包括所监测的自然保护区、监测方案、数据规范存储、标准化分析、成果介绍、工作计划等内容。2010-2019年间, 该平台使用红外相机调查技术在全国13个不同类型的保护地开展兽类和鸟类资源调查, 累计27.25万个有效工作日, 共拍摄到8.41万张独立图像, 经鉴定有80种野生兽类和200种野生鸟类, 并利用这些数据对野生动物行为、稀有物种探测、人为干扰, 以及气候变化影响等方面进行研究, 取得了重要的阶段性成果。下一步, 子平台牵头单位将筹建自然保护地红外相机数据共享平台, 制定红外相机调查设计、监测技术、数据格式等统一标准化方案, 逐步完善我国自然保护地野生动物红外相机监测网络。     

Spatial conservation planning under climate change: Using species distribution modeling to assess priority for adaptive management of Fagus crenata in Japan

Protected areas are the basis of modern conservation systems, but current climate change causes gaps between protected areas and the species distribution ranges. To mitigate the impact of climate change on species distribution ranges, revision of protected areas are necessary. Alternatively, active management such as excluding competitive species or transplanting target species would be effective. In this study, we assessed optimal actions (revision of protected areas or active management) in each geographical region to establish an effective spatial conservation plan in Japan. Gaps between the protected areas and future potential habitats were assessed using species distribution models and 20 future climate simulations. Fagus crenata, an endemic and dominant species in Japan, was used as a target species. Potential habitats within the protected areas were predicted to decrease from 22,122 km² at present to 12,309 km² under future climate conditions. Sustainable potential habitats (consistent potential habitats both at present and in future) without the protected areas extended to 13,208 km², and were mainly found in northeast Japan. These results suggest that, in northeast Japan, revisions to protected areas would be effective in preserving sustainable potential habitats under future climate change. However, the potential habitats of southwestern Japan, in which populations were genetically different from northeastern populations, were predicted to virtually disappear both within and outside of protected areas. Active management is thus necessary in southwestern Japan to ensure intraspecific genetic diversity under future climate change.     

An assessment of the efficiency of protection status through determinations of biodiversity hotspots based on endemic bird species,Taiwan

Evaluations of species richness patterns have been performed at diverse scales, and biodiversity hotspots, especially endemism hotspots, have received much attention in conservation biology. We estimated the distributions of endemic bird species based on a 12-yr avian inventory project in Taiwan, identified biodiversity hotspots of endemism on a regional scale based on predictions from the ensemble forecasting framework and frequency histogram approach, and assessed the efficiency of protected areas. The results indicated that the predicted endemism hotspots were mostly located in mid- and high-elevation areas along the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan. An observed endemism hotspot was defined as one in which at least five of Taiwan's 17 endemic bird species were present. This criterion was used because the 5% of the sampled grid squares that were the richest in endemic bird species all had 5 endemic bird species or more. Seventy to seventy-one percent of the observed biodiversity hotspots matched the predicted biodiversity hotspots. This outcome was obtained whether the richness biodiversity in a grid square was based on summed predicted probability or summed predicted richness. The majority of the protected areas for these Taiwanese endemic bird species were national parks, protecting 24.1% of the predicted hotspot areas, whereas nature reserves and wildlife refuges protected less than 7%. Most of the predicted endemism hotspots were not adequately protected. We conclude that the ensemble forecasting framework and the frequency histogram approach are useful for selecting critical habitats and biodiversity hotspots for endemic species and for appraising the efficiency of the protection status provided by governments.     

基于动物适宜栖息地的北京市自然保护地保护成效评估

栖息地是野生动物赖以生存的基础,明晰物种的适宜栖息地分布是切实加强野生动物保护、提高生物多样性保护成效的重要基础。北京市野生动植物资源丰富,也建立了一系列自然保护地以加强对野生动物的保护。当前亟需系统评估北京市现有自然保护地体系对野生动物适宜栖息地的保护成效,为未来北京市野生动物保护管理和自然保护地体系整合工作优化提供科学指导。研究选取了北京地区6个较为典型的野生动物为主要研究对象,包括黑鹳(Ciconia nigra)、褐马鸡(Crossoption mantchuricum)、大鸨(Otis tarda)、鸳鸯(Aix galericulata)、金雕(Aquila chrysaetos)和斑羚(Naemorhedus griseus),利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS的空间分析功能分析其适宜栖息地的分布;将自然保护地与适宜栖息地相叠加,识别其适宜栖息地的分布热点和保护空缺,进而评估了北京市现有自然保护地体系的保护成效。研究结果表明,6个研究物种在现有的自然保护地体系中均得到了不同程度的保护,其中褐马鸡的受保护率最高(92.82%),鸳鸯的受保护率最低(13.66%)。各类自然保...     

An integrated risk assessment for climate change: analysing the vulnerability of sharks and rays on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

An Integrated Risk Assessment for Climate Change (IRACC) is developed and applied to assess the vulnerability of sharks and rays on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) to climate change. The IRACC merges a traditional climate change vulnerability framework with approaches from fisheries ecological risk assessments. This semi‐quantitative assessment accommodates uncertainty and can be applied at different spatial and temporal scales to identify exposure factors, at‐risk species and their key biological and ecological attributes, critical habitats a`nd ecological processes, and major knowledge gaps. Consequently, the IRACC can provide a foundation upon which to develop climate change response strategies. Here, we describe the assessment process, demonstrate its application to GBR shark and ray species, and explore the issues affecting their vulnerability to climate change. The assessment indicates that for the GBR, freshwater/estuarine and reef associated sharks and rays are most vulnerable to climate change, and that vulnerability is driven by case‐specific interactions of multiple factors and species attributes. Changes in temperature, freshwater input and ocean circulation will have the most widespread effects on these species. Although relatively few GBR sharks and rays were assessed as highly vulnerable, their vulnerability increases when synergies with other factors are considered. This is especially true for freshwater/estuarine and coastal/inshore sharks and rays. Reducing the impacts of climate change on the GBR's sharks and rays requires a range of approaches including mitigating climate change and addressing habitat degradation and sustainability issues. Species‐specific conservation actions may be required for higher risk species (e.g. the freshwater whipray, porcupine ray, speartooth shark and sawfishes) including reducing mortality, preserving coastal catchments and estuarine habitats, and addressing fisheries sustainability. The assessment identified many knowledge gaps concerning GBR habitats and processes, and highlights the need for improved understanding of the biology and ecology of the sharks and rays of the GBR.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas

Bats are considered important bioindicators and deliver key ecosystem services to humans. However, it is not clear how the individual and combined effects of climate change and land-use change will affect their conservation in the future. We used a spatial conservation prioritization framework to determine future shifts in the priority areas for the conservation of 169 bat species under projected climate and land-use change scenarios across Africa. Specifically, we modelled species distribution models under four different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We used land-use change scenarios within the spatial conservation prioritization framework to assess habitat quality in areas where bats may shift their distributions. Overall, bats’ representation within already existing protected areas in Africa was low (∼5% of their suitable habitat in protected areas which cover ∼7% of Africa). Accounting for future land-use change resulted in the largest shift in spatial priority areas for conservation actions, and species representation within priority areas for conservation actions decreased by ∼9%. A large proportion of spatial conservation priorities will shift from forested areas with little disturbance under present conditions to agricultural areas in the future. Planning land use to reduce impacts on bats in priority areas outside protected areas where bats will be shifting their ranges in the future is crucial to enhance their conservation and maintain the important ecosystem services they provide to humans.     

Climate change‐induced distributional change of medicinal and aromatic plants in the Nepal Himalaya

Medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) contribute to human well‐being via health and economic benefits. Nepal has recorded 2331 species of MAPs, of which around 300 species are currently under trade. Wild harvested MAPs in Nepal are under increasing pressure from overexploitation for trade and the effects of climate change and development. Despite some localized studies to examine the impact of climate change on MAPs, a consolidated understanding is lacking on how the distribution of major traded species of MAPs will change with future climate change. This study identifies the potential distribution of 29 species of MAPs in Nepal under current and future climate using an ensemble modeling and hotspot approach. Future climate change will reduce climatically suitable areas of two‐third of the studied species and decrease climatically suitable hotspots across elevation, physiography, ecoregions, federal states, and protected areas in Nepal. Reduction in climatically suitable areas for MAPs might have serious consequences for the livelihood of people that depend on the collection and trade of MAPs as well as Nepal''s national economy. Therefore, it is imperative to consider the threats that future climate change may have on distribution of MAPs while designing protected areas and devising environmental conservation and climate adaptation policies.     

Expected impacts of climate change threaten the anuran diversity in the Brazilian hotspots

We performed Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to generate climatically suitable areas for anurans in the Brazilian hotspots, the Atlantic Forest (AF), and Cerrado (CER), considering the baseline and future climate change scenarios, to evaluate the differences in the alpha and beta diversity metrics across time. We surveyed anuran occurrence records and generated ENMs for 350 and 155 species in the AF and CER. The final predictive maps for the baseline, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios, based on an ensemble approach, were used to estimate the alpha (local species richness) and beta diversity metrics (local contribution to beta diversity index and its decomposition into replacement and nestedness components) in each ~50 × 50 km grid cell of the hotspots. Climate change is not expected to drastically change the distribution of the anuran richness gradients, but to negatively impact their whole extensions (i.e., cause species losses throughout the hotspots), except the northeastern CER that is expected to gain in species richness. Areas having high beta diversity are expected to decrease in northeastern CER, whereas an increase is expected in southeastern/southwestern CER under climate change. High beta diversity areas are expected to remain in the same AF locations as the prediction of the baseline climate, but the predominance of species loss under climate change is expected to increase the nestedness component in the hotspot. These results suggest that the lack of similar climatically suitable areas for most species will be the main challenge that species will face in the future. Finally, the application of the present framework to a wide range of taxa is an important step for the conservation of threatened biomes.