Mobility restrictions and alcohol use during lockdown: “A still and dry pandemic for the many”?

Unexpected mobility disruptions during lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 became ’tipping points’ with the potential to alter pre-pandemic routines sensitive to socialisation. This paper investigates the impact of lockdown exposure on alcohol consumption. We document two findings using information from the Google Mobility Report and longitudinal data from the Understanding Society survey (UKHLS) in the United Kingdom. First, we find a sharp reduction in both actual mobility and alcohol use (consistent with a ”still and dry pandemic for the many” hypothesis). However, we document an increase in alcohol use among heavy drinkers, implying a split behavioural response to COVID-19 mobility restrictions based on alcohol use prior to the pandemic. Second, using the predictions of the prevalence-response elasticity theory, we find that the pandemic’s reduction in social contacts is responsible for a 2.8 percentage point reduction in drinking among men.     

A single centered study reveals association between liver injury and COVID-19 infection

Background and aimDespite the fact that it has been over a year with the pandemic COVID-19 infection, ongoing research and analysis reveal many complications and comorbidities associated with COVID-19. In this study, we aimed at investigating the clinical and laboratory assessments in COVID-19 patients with and without liver injury.MethodsSymptomatic 541 COVID-19 positive patients, who were admitted to Al Kuwait Hospital, Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), were recruited in this study. Their data was collected retrospectively, including demographic data, blood tests, symptoms, radiographical assessments, and clinical outcomes of COVID-19.ResultsAround 19% of the recruited COVID-19 patients displayed signs of acute liver injury. Also, there was an increase in the percentage of critical, ICU-admitted and mortality rates in COVID-19 cases with liver injury, as well as a higher percentage of septic shock and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). COVID-19 patients with liver injury had more pronounced bilateral consolidation, lymphopenia and neutrophilia. Additionally, these patients had higher levels of CRP, LDH, procalcitonin, ferritin and D dimer levels. Finally, there was a higher percentage of patients taking various COVID-19 therapies in the COVID-19 patients with liver injury group.ConclusionCOVID-19 patients with acute liver injury are at a higher risk for serious outcomes including death.     

Diabetes and coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2): Molecular mechanism of Metformin intervention and the scientific basis of drug repurposing

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by a new strain of coronavirus called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was declared a pandemic by WHO on March 11, 2020. Soon after its emergence in late December 2019, it was noticed that diabetic individuals were at an increased risk of COVID-19–associated complications, ICU admissions, and mortality. Maintaining proper blood glucose levels using insulin and/or other oral antidiabetic drugs (such as Metformin) reduced the detrimental effects of COVID-19. Interestingly, in diabetic COVID-19 patients, while insulin administration was associated with adverse outcomes, Metformin treatment was correlated with a significant reduction in disease severity and mortality rates among affected individuals. Metformin was extensively studied for its antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, immunomodulatory, and antiviral capabilities that would explain its ability to confer cardiopulmonary and vascular protection in COVID-19. Here, we describe the various possible molecular mechanisms that contribute to Metformin therapy’s beneficial effects and lay out the scientific basis of repurposing Metformin for use in COVID-19 patients.     

Incidence and impact of cardiac arrhythmias in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): A systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundStudies have shown that cardiac arrhythmias may occur in up to 44% of patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and has been associated with an increased risk of death. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the incidence of cardiac arrhythmias in patients with COVID-19 and their implications on patient prognosis.MethodsWe performed a systematic literature search from PubMed, SCOPUS, Europe PMC, Cochrane Central Databases, and Google Scholar + Preprint Servers. The primary endpoint of the study was poor outcomes including mortality, severe COVID-19, and the need for ICU care.ResultsA total of 4 studies including 784 patients were analyzed. The incidence of arrhythmia in patients with COVID-19 was 19% (9–28%; I²: 91.45). Arrhythmia occurred in 48% (38–57%; I²: 48.08) of patients with poor outcome and 6% (1–12%; I²: 85.33%) of patients without poor outcome. Patients with COVID-19 experiencing arrhythmia had an increased risk of poor outcome (RR 7.96 [3.77, 16.81], p < 0.001; I²: 71.1%). The funnel-plot analysis showed an asymmetrical funnel plot with most of the studies on the right side of the effect estimate. The regression-based Egger’s test showed indication of small-study effects (p = 0.001).ConclusionCardiac arrhythmias were significantly associated with an increased risk of poor outcome in COVID-19. Arrhythmias were observed in 19% of patients with COVID-19 and in 48% of patients with COVID-19 and poor outcomes.     

Unequal excess mortality during the Spanish Flu pandemic in the Netherlands

A century after the Spanish Flu, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought renewed attention to socioeconomic and occupational differences in mortality in the earlier pandemic. The magnitude of these differences and the pathways between occupation and increased mortality remain unclear, however. In this paper, we explore the relation between occupational characteristics and excess mortality among men during the Spanish Flu pandemic in the Netherlands. By creating a new occupational coding for exposure to disease at work, we separate social status and occupational conditions for viral transmission. We use a new data set based on men’s death certificates to calculate excess mortality rates by region, age group, and occupational group. Using OLS regression models, we estimate whether social position, regular interaction in the workplace, and working in an enclosed space affected excess mortality among men in the Netherlands in the autumn of 1918. We find some evidence that men with occupations that featured high levels of social contact had higher mortality in this period. Above all, however, we find a strong socioeconomic gradient to excess mortality among men during the Spanish Flu pandemic, even after accounting for exposure in the workplace.     

Important Management Considerations In Patients With Pituitary Disorders During The Time Of The Covid-19 Pandemic

Objective: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that resulted in a global pandemic with substantial morbidity and mortality. Currently, there is no specific treatment or approved vaccine against COVID-19. The underlying associated comorbidity and diminished immune function of some pituitary patients (whether caused by the disease and its sequelae or treatment with excess glucocorticoids) increases their risk of contracting and developing complications from COVID-19 infection.Methods: A review of studies in PubMed and Google Scholar published between January 2020 to the time of writing (May 1, 2020) was conducted using the search terms ‘pituitary,’ ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19’, ‘2019-nCoV’, ‘diabetes mellitus’, ‘obesity’, ‘adrenal,’ and ‘endocrine.’Results: Older age and pre-existing obesity, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus increase the risk of hospitalization and death in COVID-19 patients. Men tend to be more severely affected than women; fortunately, most men, particularly of younger age, survive the infection. In addition to general comorbidities that may apply to many pituitary patients, they are also susceptible due to the following pituitary disorder–specific features: hypercortisolemia and adrenal suppression with Cushing disease, adrenal insufficiency and diabetes insipidus with hypopituitarism, and sleep-apnea syndrome and chest wall deformity with acromegaly.Conclusion: This review aims to focus on the impact of COVID-19 in patients with pituitary disorders. As most countries are implementing mobility restrictions, we also discuss how this pandemic has affected patient attitudes and impacted our decision-making on management recommendations for these patients.Abbreviations: ACE = angiotensin-converting enzyme; AI = adrenal insufficiency; ARB = angiotensin receptor blocker; ARDS = acute respiratory disease syndrome; COVID-19 = coronavirus disease 2019; CPAP = continuous positive airway pressure; DI = diabetes insipidus; DM = diabetes mellitus; SARS-CoV-2 = severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2     

Epidemiological,socio-demographic and clinical features of the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ecuador

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread rapidly around the globe. Nevertheless, there is limited information describing the characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients in Latin America. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 9,468 confirmed COVID-19 cases reported in Ecuador. We calculated overall incidence, mortality, case fatality rates, disability adjusted life years, attack and crude mortality rates, as well as relative risk and relative odds of death, adjusted for age, sex and presence of comorbidities. A total of 9,468 positive COVID-19 cases and 474 deaths were included in the analysis. Men accounted for 55.4% (n = 5, 247) of cases and women for 44.6% (n = 4, 221). We found the presence of comorbidities, being male and older than 65 years were important determinants of mortality. Coastal regions were most affected by COVID-19, with higher mortality rates than the highlands. Fatigue was reported in 53.2% of the patients, followed by headache (43%), dry cough (41.7%), ageusia (37.1%) and anosmia (36.1%). We present an analysis of the burden of COVID-19 in Ecuador. Our findings show that men are at higher risk of dying from COVID-19 than women, and risk increases with age and the presence of comorbidities. We also found that blue-collar workers and the unemployed are at greater risk of dying. These early observations offer clinical insights for the medical community to help improve patient care and for public health officials to strengthen Ecuador’s response to the outbreak.     

An investigation of spatial-temporal patterns and predictions of the coronavirus 2019 pandemic in Colombia, 2020–2021

Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 at the national and regional levels in Colombia. We utilize the case incidence and mortality data to estimate the transmission potential and generate short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the public health policies using previously validated mathematical models. The analysis is augmented by the examination of geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 at the departmental level along with the investigation of mobility and social media trends. Overall, the national and regional reproduction numbers show sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pandemic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Whereas the most recent estimates of reproduction number indicate disease containment, with R_t<1.0 as of October 31, 2021. On the forecasting front, the sub-epidemic model performs best at capturing the 30-day ahead COVID-19 trajectory compared to the Richards and generalized logistic growth model. Nevertheless, the spatial variability in the incidence rate patterns across different departments can be grouped into four distinct clusters. As the case incidence surged in July 2020, an increase in mobility patterns was also observed. On the contrary, a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued, indicating the pandemic fatigue in the country.     

Age and Location in Severity of COVID-19 Pathology: Do Lactoferrin and Pneumococcal Vaccination Explain Low Infant Mortality and Regional Differences?

Two conundrums puzzle COVID-19 investigators: 1) morbidity and mortality is rare among infants and young children and 2) rates of morbidity and mortality exhibit large variances across nations, locales, and even within cities. It is found that the higher the rate of pneumococcal vaccination in a nation (or city) the lower the COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Vaccination rates with Bacillus Calmette–Guerin, poliovirus, and other vaccines do not correlate with COVID-19 risks, nor do COVID-19 case or death rates correlate with number of people in the population with diabetes, obesity, or adults over 65. Infant protection may be due to maternal antibodies and antiviral proteins in milk such as lactoferrin that are known to protect against coronavirus infections. Subsequent protection might then be conferred (and correlate with) rates of Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib) (universal in infants) and pneumococcal vaccination, the latter varying widely by geography among infants, at-risk adults, and the elderly. Also see the video abstract here https://youtu.be/GODBYRbPL00 .     

COVID-19, media coverage of bats and related Web searches: a turning point for bat conservation?

1. SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic, is genomically similar to a SARS-like beta-coronavirus found in Asian rhinolophid bats. This evolutionary relationship impressed the global media, which then emphasised bats as key actors in the spillover that resulted in the pandemic. In this study, we highlight changes in the traditional and new media coverage of bats and in Internet search volumes that occurred since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
2. We analysed Google and Wikipedia searches for bats and coronaviruses in 21 countries and eight languages, as well as television broadcasts in the USA, some of which have global coverage, between January 2016 and December 2020. In January 2020, the amount of television news about bats boomed, and news associated with the term ‘bat’ shifted to COVID-19-related topics. A nearly identical pattern was observed in Google searches during 2020 at the global scale. The daily time series of television coverage and Internet search volumes on bats and coronavirus in the USA covaried in the first quarter of 2020, in line with the existence of a media bubble. Time-series analysis revealed that both the Google Trends index and visits to Wikipedia pages about bats boomed in early 2020, despite the fact that this time of year is usually characterised by low search volumes.
3. Media coverage emphasised, correctly or not, the role of bats in the COVID-19 pandemic and amplified public interest in bats worldwide. The public image of these mammals, in many cases threatened and important ecosystem service providers, was seriously compromised. We therefore recommend that policymakers and journalists prioritise scientifically accurate communication campaigns about bats, which would help counteract the surge in bat persecution, and leverage interest towards positive human–bat interactions.

     

Euthyroid Sick Syndrome as a Prognostic Indicator of COVID-19 Pulmonary Involvement,Associated With Poorer Disease Prognosis and Increased Mortality

ObjectiveThe prevalence of euthyroid sick syndrome (ESS) and its association with the prognosis of COVID-19 and mortality in patients with lung involvement in COVID-19 have not yet been elucidated.MethodsClinical and laboratory data of patients with COVID-19 with or without ESS were collected retrospectively and analyzed on admission. All subjects were admitted to the Department of Internal Diseases and Clinical Pharmacology at Bieganski Hospital between December 2020 and April 2021.ResultsIn total, 310 medical records of patients with COVID-19 were analyzed retrospectively. Among 215 enrolled patients, 82 cases of ESS were diagnosed. The patients with ESS had higher pro-inflammatory factor levels, longer hospitalizations, and a higher risk of requiring high-flow nasal oxygen therapy or intubation than the patients without ESS. The Kaplan-Meier curve indicated that the patients with ESS had a lower probability of survival when computed tomography showed ≤50% parenchymal involvement compared with that in patients without ESS. However, no differences in mortality were noted in those with more than 50% parenchymal involvement. The survival curve showed that ESS was associated with a higher risk of mortality during hospitalization.ConclusionESS is closely associated with a poor prognosis, including longer hospitalizations, more frequent intubation, transfer to the intensive care unit, and a higher mortality rate in patients with COVID-19. ESS is a potential prognostic predictor of survival, regardless of lung involvement in COVID-19.     

Physical mobility under stay-at-home orders: A comparative analysis of movement restrictions between the U.S. and Europe

During the COVID-19 pandemic, both the U.S. and Europe have issued movement restrictions with the exception of visits to essential services, including groceries and pharmacies. Using Google's data on community mobility, I employ an event-study design to compare the effects of movement restrictions on physical mobility in the U.S. and Europe. I find that compared to Europe, the U.S. has higher levels of mobility related to visits to groceries and pharmacies and lower levels of the residential presence relative to baseline values, and the differences are not only statistically significant but also of large magnitudes. Such differences in post-restriction mobility are still significant between Europe and the U.S.’ early epicenters of COVID-19. The main results of this paper are robust to changes in samples and specifications. These findings suggest that movement restrictions appear to be less effective in the U.S., which have useful implications for health policy evaluation, pandemic forecasting, and economic recovery.     

COVID-19 and excess mortality in the United States: A county-level analysis

BackgroundCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) excess deaths refer to increases in mortality over what would normally have been expected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Several prior studies have calculated excess deaths in the United States but were limited to the national or state level, precluding an examination of area-level variation in excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19. In this study, we take advantage of county-level variation in COVID-19 mortality to estimate excess deaths associated with the pandemic and examine how the extent of excess mortality not assigned to COVID-19 varies across subsets of counties defined by sociodemographic and health characteristics.Methods and findingsIn this ecological, cross-sectional study, we made use of provisional National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data on direct COVID-19 and all-cause mortality occurring in US counties from January 1 to December 31, 2020 and reported before March 12, 2021. We used data with a 10-week time lag between the final day that deaths occurred and the last day that deaths could be reported to improve the completeness of data. Our sample included 2,096 counties with 20 or more COVID-19 deaths. The total number of residents living in these counties was 319.1 million. On average, the counties were 18.7% Hispanic, 12.7% non-Hispanic Black, and 59.6% non-Hispanic White. A total of 15.9% of the population was older than 65 years. We first modeled the relationship between 2020 all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality across all counties and then produced fully stratified models to explore differences in this relationship among strata of sociodemographic and health factors. Overall, we found that for every 100 deaths assigned to COVID-19, 120 all-cause deaths occurred (95% CI, 116 to 124), implying that 17% (95% CI, 14% to 19%) of excess deaths were ascribed to causes of death other than COVID-19 itself. Our stratified models revealed that the percentage of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 was substantially higher among counties with lower median household incomes and less formal education, counties with poorer health and more diabetes, and counties in the South and West. Counties with more non-Hispanic Black residents, who were already at high risk of COVID-19 death based on direct counts, also reported higher percentages of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19. Study limitations include the use of provisional data that may be incomplete and the lack of disaggregated data on county-level mortality by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and sociodemographic and health characteristics.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that direct COVID-19 death counts in the US in 2020 substantially underestimated total excess mortality attributable to COVID-19. Racial and socioeconomic inequities in COVID-19 mortality also increased when excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 were considered. Our results highlight the importance of considering health equity in the policy response to the pandemic.

Andrew Stokes and co-workers report a county-level analysis of excess deaths owing to COVID-19 in the United States.     

Covid-19 in end-stage renal disease patients with renal replacement therapies: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundThe novel coronavirus (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, showed various prevalence and case-fatality rates (CFR) among patients with different pre-existing chronic conditions. End-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients with renal replacement therapy (RRT) might have a higher prevalence and CFR due to reduced immune function from uremia and kidney tropism of SARS-CoV-2, but there was a lack of systematic study on the infection and mortality of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in ESRD patients with various RRT.Methodology/Principal findingsWe searched five electronic databases and performed a systematic review and meta-analysis up to June 30, 2020, to evaluate the prevalence and case fatality rate (CFR) of the COVID-19 infection among ESRD patients with RRT. The global COVID-19 data were retrieved from the international database on June 30, 2020, for estimating the prevalence and CFR of the general population as referencing points. Of 3,272 potential studies, 34 were eligible studies consisted of 1,944 COVID-19 confirmed cases in 21,873 ESRD patients with RRT from 12 countries in four WHO regions. The overall pooled prevalence in ESRD patients with RRT was 3.10% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25–5.72] which was higher than referencing 0.14% global average prevalence. The overall estimated CFR of COVID-19 in ESRD patients with RRT was 18.06% (95% CI 14.09–22.32) which was higher than the global average at 4.98%.ConclusionsThis meta-analysis suggested high COVID-19 prevalence and CFR in ESRD patients with RRT. ESRD patients with RRT should have their specific protocol of COVID-19 prevention and treatment to mitigate excess cases and deaths.     

Clinical characteristics,risk factors,and rate of severity of a nationwide COVID-19 Saudi cohort

ObjectiveTo evaluate COVID19 patients’ clinical characteristics, risk factors, and COVID-19 severity at baseline and over one month following hospitalization.Design, setting, and participantsThis prospective cohort study of 598 Saudi COVID19 patients recruited from 4 major medical institutions nationwide between June 01, 2020, and February 28, 2021. Patients were stratified into different demographic characteristics and COVID-19 severity scale.ResultsOf the 598 hospitalized adult COVID19 patients (mean [range] age, 57 [46 to 65] years; 59% male), 300 (50.16%) had severe clinical COVID-19. Comorbidity was high among hospitalized patients (73.5 %), with diabetes mellitus (n=; 46%) and hypertension (n=; 41%) being the most common prevalent. In a multivariate logistic regression model, patient demographics and clinical factors such as age (odds ratio [OR], 1.014 per year; 95% CI, 1.003–1.025), male sex (OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.02–2.62), diabetes mellitus (OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.06–2.49), obesity (OR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.26–2.94), oxygen saturation<92% (OR, 4.83; 95% CI, 2.96–7.86), and high neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (OR, 3.74 per unit; 95% CI, 1.96–7.14) were independently associated with higher COVID-19 severity. Moreover, more than 60% of male patients and middle-aged patients (40–60 years) were associated with the use of COVID-19 medications, including favipiravir and dexamethasone, during their hospital stay. Additionally, the rate of invasive mechanical ventilation was the highest in female patients (61.5%) and in middle-aged patients (46.2%). However, the death rate was slightly higher in males (56%) than in female patients and in elderly patients (52%). In Cox proportional analysis, age associated with increased risk of 60-days mortality (Hazard ratio; HR, 1.05 per year; 95% CI, 1.018–1.098). Additionally, the Riyadh region associated with more COVID-19 cases required invasive respiratory support (57.7%) and Jeddah was associated with more deceased COVID-19 cases (44%).ConclusionsThe data shows that comorbidity is associated with hospitalization among COVID-19 patients, which indicates the level of severity. Infection during the winter season (November), male gender, elderly, and those with pre-existing diabetes mellitus or obesity were associated with higher COVID-19 clinical severity.     

Seroprevalence of COVID-19 in Riyadh city during the early increase of COVID-19 infections in Saudi Arabia,June 2020

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in December 2019 and caused a global pandemic of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). More than 170 million cases have been reported worldwide with mortality rate of 1–3%. The detection of SARS-CoV-2 by molecular testing is limited to acute infections, therefore serological studies provide a better estimation of the virus spread in a population. This study aims to evaluate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the major city of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia during the sharp increase of the pandemic, in June 2020. Serum samples from non-COVID patients (n = 432), patients visiting hospitals for other complications and confirmed negative for COVID-19, and healthy blood donors (n = 350) were collected and evaluated using an in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The overall percentage of positive samples was 7.80% in the combined two populations (n = 782). The seroprevalence was lower in the blood donors (6%) than non-COVID-19 patients (9.25%), p = 0.0004. This seroprevalence rate is higher than the documented cases, indicating asymptomatic or mild unreported COVID-19 infections in these two populations. This warrants further national sero-surveys and highlights the importance of real-time serological surveillance during pandemics.     

Factores de riesgo asociados a fallecimiento por la variante ómicron de COVID-19: análisis retrospectivo con personas mayores de Canarias

Background and aimsSince the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the elderly population has had the highest rates of complications and mortality. This study aimed to determine the influence of different risk factors on deaths due to the Omicron variant in the Canary Islands.Materials and methodsA retrospective observational study of 16,998 cases of COVID-19 over 40 years of age was conducted in the Canary Islands between August 1, 2022, and January 31, 2023. We extracted sociodemographic data (age and sex) and clinical data (death, vaccination history, hospital admission, previous diseases, and treatments).ResultsAmong the deaths, there was a higher proportion of males aged over 70 years, with diabetes, cardiovascular, renal, respiratory, and systemic diseases, and nursing home residents. Significant differences were observed in the number of doses of the vaccine. The multiple regression model showed that male sex (OR [95% CI] = 1.92 [1.42–2.58]), age (70–79 years, 9.11 [4.27–19.43]; 80–89 years, 21.72 [10.40–45.36]; 90–99 years, 66.24 [31.03–141.38]; 100 years or older, 69.22 [12.97–369.33]), being unvaccinated (6.96, [4.01–12.08]), or having the last dose administered at least 12 months before the diagnosis (2.38, [1.48–3.81]) were significantly associated with mortality.ConclusionsMultiple factors may increase the risk of mortality due to COVID-19 in the elderly population. In our study, we found that only three predictors can effectively explain the variability: older age, male sex, and not being vaccinated or last vaccination date prior to one year.     

The potential role of Th17 immune responses in coronavirus immunopathology and vaccine-induced immune enhancement

Increasing evidence points to host Th17 inflammatory responses as contributing to the severe lung pathology and mortality of lower respiratory tract infections from coronaviruses. This includes host inflammatory and cytokine responses to COVID-19 caused by the SARS-2 coronavirus (SARS CoV2). From studies conducted in laboratory animals, there are additional concerns about immune enhancement and the role of potential host immunopathology resulting from experimental human COVID-19 vaccines. Here we summarize evidence suggesting there may be partial overlap between the underlying immunopathologic processes linked to both coronavirus infection and vaccination, and a role for Th17 in immune enhancement and eosinophilic pulmonary immunopathology. Such findings help explain the link between viral-vectored coronavirus vaccines and immune enhancement and its reduction through alum adjuvants. Additional research may also clarify links between COVID-19 pulmonary immunopathology and heart disease.     

Long-term predictions of current confirmed and dead cases of COVID-19 in China by the non-autonomous delayed epidemic models

In this paper, we make long-term predictions based on numbers of current confirmed cases, accumulative dead cases of COVID-19 in different regions in China by modeling approach. Firstly, we use the SIRD epidemic model (S-Susceptible, I-Infected, R-Recovered, D-Dead) which is a non-autonomous dynamic system with incubation time delay to study the evolution of the COVID-19 in Wuhan City, Hubei Province and China Mainland. According to the data in the early stage issued by the National Health Commission of China, we can accurately estimate the parameters of the model, and then accurately predict the evolution of the COVID-19 there. From the analysis of the issued data, we find that the cure rates in Wuhan City, Hubei Province and China Mainland are the approximately linear increasing functions of time t and their death rates are the piecewisely decreasing functions. These can be estimated by finite difference method. Secondly, we use the delayed SIRD epidemic model to study the evolution of the COVID-19 in the Hubei Province outside Wuhan City. We find that its cure rate is an approximately linear increasing function and its death rate is nearly a constant. Thirdly, we use the delayed SIR epidemic model (S-Susceptible, I-Infected, R-Removed) to predict those of Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Anhui Provinces. We find that their cure rates are the approximately linear increasing functions and their death rates are the small constants. The results indicate that it is possible to make accurate long-term predictions for numbers of current confirmed, accumulative dead cases of COVID-19 by modeling. In this paper the results indicate we can accurately obtain and predict the turning points, the end time and the maximum numbers of the current infected and dead cases of the COVID-19 in China. In spite of our simple method and small data, it is rather effective in the long-term prediction of the COVID-19.     

MicroRNA-425-5p modulates osteoporosis by targeting annexin A2

The disease (COVID-19) novel coronavirus pandemic has so far infected millions resulting in the death of over a million people as of Oct 2020. More than 90% of those infected with COVID-19 show mild or no symptoms but the rest of the infected cases show severe symptoms resulting in significant mortality. Age has emerged as a major factor to predict the severity of the disease and mortality rates are significantly higher in elderly patients. Besides, patients with underlying conditions like Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, and cancer have an increased risk of severe disease and death due to COVID-19 infection. Obesity has emerged as a novel risk factor for hospitalization and death due to COVID-19. Several independent studies have observed that people with obesity are at a greater risk of severe disease and death due to COVID-19. Here we review the published data related to obesity and overweight to assess the possible risk and outcome in Covid-19 patients based on their body weight. Besides, we explore how the obese host provides a unique microenvironment for disease pathogenesis, resulting in increased severity of the disease and poor outcome.