Changes in Prices After an Excise Tax to Sweetened Sugar Beverages Was Implemented in Mexico: Evidence from Urban Areas

In 2014 an excise tax to non-alcoholic sweetened beverages (SSB) was implemented in Mexico. The objective of this paper is to study whether and to what degree these taxes passed-through onto SSB prices in urban areas overall and by region, type of beverage and package size. Prices were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography from 2011 to 2014. We applied a pre-post quasi-experimental approach using fixed effects models. In sensitivity analysis we applied other model specifications to test the robustness of the findings and we also present weighted estimations based on household purchases. The dependent variables are real prices of a specific beverage category; the main independent variables are dummies for each month of 2014, and the models adjust for time trends and seasonality. Results suggest that the SSB tax passed along to consumers for all SSBs and we found overshifting for the carbonated SSBs. A greater effect is seen among the small package sizes, and we see heterogeneous effects by region. Estimating the effect of the tax on prices is important to understand the potential effect on consumption.     

First-Year Evaluation of Mexico’s Tax on Nonessential Energy-Dense Foods: An Observational Study

BackgroundIn an effort to prevent continued increases in obesity and diabetes, in January 2014, the Mexican government implemented an 8% tax on nonessential foods with energy density ≥275 kcal/100 g and a peso-per-liter tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Limited rigorous evaluations of food taxes exist worldwide. The objective of this study was to examine changes in volume of taxed and untaxed packaged food purchases in response to these taxes in the entire sample and stratified by socioeconomic status (SES).ConclusionsHousehold purchases of nonessential energy-dense foods declined in the first year after the implementation of Mexico’s SSB and nonessential foods taxes. Future studies should evaluate the impact of the taxes on overall energy intake, dietary quality, and food purchase patterns (see S1 Abstract in Spanish).     

Measuring weight outcomes for obesity intervention strategies: The case of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax

Taxing unhealthy foods has been proposed as a means to improve diet and health by reducing calorie intake and raising funds to combat obesity, particularly sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). A growing number of studies have examined the effects of such food taxes, but few have estimated the weight-loss effects. Typically, a static model of 3500 calories for one pound of body weight is used, and the main objective of the study is to demonstrate its bias. To accomplish the objective, we estimate income-segmented beverage demand systems to examine the potential effects of a SSB tax. Elasticity estimates and a hypothetical 20 percent effective tax rate (or about 0.5 cent per ounce) are applied to beverage intake data from a nationally representative survey, and we find an average daily reduction of 34–47 calories among adults and 40–51 calories among children. The tax-induced energy reductions are translated into weight loss using both static and dynamic calorie-to-weight models. Results demonstrate that the static model significantly overestimates the weight loss from reduced energy intake by 63 percent in year one, 346 percent in year five, and 764 percent in year 10, which leads to unrealistic expectations for obesity intervention strategies. The tax is estimated to generate $5.8 billion a year in revenue and is found to be regressive, although it represents about 1 percent of household food and beverage spending.     

Can Children Discriminate Sugar-Sweetened from Non-Nutritively Sweetened Beverages and How Do They Like Them?

Background

Replacement of sugar-sweetened by non-nutritively sweetened beverages or water may reduce excess weight gain in children. However, it is unclear whether children like non-nutritively sweetened beverages as much as sugar-sweetened beverages. We examined whether children could taste a difference between non-nutritively sweetened beverages and matching sugar-sweetened beverages, and which of the two types of beverage they liked best.

Methods

89 children aged 5 to 12 tasted seven non-nutritively sweetened beverages and matching sugar-sweetened beverages, for a total of 14 beverages. We used Triangle tests to check their ability to discriminate between the matched versions, and a 5-point scale to measure how much the children liked each individual beverage.

Results

Overall, 24% of children appeared to be genuinely capable of distinguishing between non-nutritively sweetened and sugar-sweetened beverages. The mean ± SD score for how much the children liked the non-nutritively sweetened beverages was 3.39±0.7 and that for the sugar-sweetened beverages 3.39±0.6 (P = 0.9) on a scale running from 1 (disgusting) to 5 (delicious). The children preferred some beverages to others irrespective of whether they were sugar-sweetened or non-nutritively sweetened (P = 0.000). Children who correctly identified which of three drinks contained the same sweetener and which one was different also showed no preference for either type.

Conclusion

We found that about one in four children were able to discriminate between non-nutritively sweetened and sugar-sweetened beverages but children liked both varieties equally. Non-nutritively sweetened beverages may therefore be an acceptable alternative to sugar-sweetened beverages although water remains the healthiest beverage for children.     

COUNTERPOINT: Artificial Sweeteners for Obesity—Better than Sugary Alternatives; Potentially a Solution

ObjectiveNonnutritive (NNSs) are used in place of sugars to reduce caloric and glycemic intake while providing desired sweetness, commonly replacing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) with “diet” (zero-calorie) alternatives. Concern has developed due to observational data associating NNSs with obesity and adiposity-based chronic disease. This counterpoint argues that, in general, NNSs used in place of added or excess sugars in the diet are likely beneficial.MethodsA literature review was conducted on interventional trials investigating NNSs and obesity or type 2 diabetes mellitus. Key words used in the search included artificial sweeteners, nonnutritive sweeteners, saccharin, sucralose, aspartame, stevia/steviol, acesulfame potassium, meal replacements, type 2 diabetes mellitus, obesity, and weight.ResultsInterventional data and indirect interventional data consistently showed beneficial effects on weight and cardiometabolic health, including glycemia, when SSBs or other energy-dense foods were replaced by artificially sweetened beverages or artificially sweetened meal replacements.ConclusionAlthough NNSs correlate with obesity and adiposity-based chronic disease, those data are fraught with confounding and error. Plausibility has been suggested on the basis of preclinical research on neuroendocrine control of appetite, satiety, and cravings plus the gut microbiome. However, interventional data reveal that replacing caloric/glycemic energy intake via NNSs creates an energy deficit resulting in weight loss and improvement in disease—especially dysglycemic disease. Intensive dietary intervention using artificially sweetened meal replacements shows a marked clinical benefit without detriment from their NNSs. Furthermore, beverages sweetened with NNSs rather than SSBs have been noted to be a critical component for those succeeding in maintaining weight loss. Although individual responses to the effects of NNSs are always warranted just like in any clinical situation, patients should not be advised to avoid NNSs in the context of dietary intervention to improve quality and energy deficit.     

Self-reported sugar-sweetened beverage intake among college students

Objective: To characterize sugar‐sweetened beverage intake of college students. Research Methods and Procedures: Undergraduates in an urban southern community campus were surveyed anonymously about sugared beverage consumption (soda, fruit drinks, energy drinks, sports drinks, sweet ice tea) in the past month. Results: Two hundred sixty‐five undergraduates responded (66% women, 46% minority, 100% of volunteers solicited). Most students (95%) reported sugared beverage intake in the past month, and 65% reported daily intake. Men were more likely than women to report daily intake (74% vs. 61%, p = 0.035). Soda was the most common sugar‐sweetened beverage. Black undergraduates reported higher sugared beverage intake than whites (p = 0.02), with 91% of blacks reporting sugar‐sweetened fruit drink intake in the past month and 50% reporting daily consumption. Mean estimated caloric intake from combined types of sugar‐sweetened beverages was significantly higher among black students than whites, 796 ± 941 vs. 397 ± 396 kcal/d (p = 0.0003); the primary source of sugar‐sweetened beverage calories among blacks was sugared fruit drinks (556 ± 918 kcal/d). Younger undergraduates reported significantly higher intake than older students (p = 0.025). Discussion: Self‐reported sugar‐sweetened beverage consumption among undergraduates is substantial and likely contributes considerable non‐nutritive calories, which may contribute to weight gain. Black undergraduates may be particularly vulnerable due to higher sugared beverage intake. Obesity prevention interventions targeting reductions in sugar‐sweetened beverages in this population merit consideration.     

Shifts in patterns and consumption of beverages between 1965 and 2002

Background: Beverage patterning may play a role in partially explaining the rising rates of obesity in the United States, yet little work on overall trends and patterns exits. Our objective was to examine trends and patterns of beverage consumption among U.S. adults. Methods: We used data from the nationally representative Nationwide Food Consumption Surveys (1965, 1977 to 1978) and the National Health and Nutrition Surveys (1988 to 1994, 1999 to 2002). To examine trends we determined percent consuming and per capita and per consumer caloric intake from all beverages. We used cluster analysis to determine year‐specific beverage patterns in 1977 and 2002. Results: The percentage of calories from beverages significantly increased between 1965 (11.8%), 1977 (14.2%), 1988 (18.5%), and 2002 (21.0%); this represents an overall increase of 222 calories per person per day from beverages, resulting largely from increased intake of calorically sweetened beverages. Beverage patterns in 2002 were more complex than in 1977 and were dominated by a greater number of beverages, reflecting the increase in alcohol, soda, and diet beverages. Conclusion: Calories from beverages increased substantially from 1965 to 2002, providing a considerable source of daily calories. Given the upward trends in calorically sweetened, nutrient‐deficient beverages and the shifts in overall beverage patterns, addressing beverage intake is a salient issue for adults.     

Sweetened beverage consumption and risk of liver cancer by diabetes status: A pooled analysis

BackgroundConsumption of sweetened beverages has been linked to several risk factors for liver cancer including diabetes. Studies investigating the role of sweetened beverage consumption and liver cancer, however, are limited. As persons with diabetes are advised against consumption of sugar, the objective of this study was to examine the role of sweetened beverage consumption and liver cancer risk by diabetes status.MethodsData from two U.S. cohorts: the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial were harmonized and pooled. Hazard ratios and 95%CI were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models stratified by median follow-up time.ResultsAmong persons without diabetes, there were no statistical evidence of associations between liver cancer and consumption of sweetened beverages overall, sugar sweetened beverages (SSB), or artificially sweetened beverages (ASB). Sugar sweetened (SS) soda consumption, however, was associated with liver cancer in the first follow-up interval (HR:1.18. 95%CI: 1.03, 1.35). In contrast, among persons with diabetes, there were significant associations between liver cancer and consumption of sweetened beverages overall (HR: 1.12, 95%CI 1.01, 1.24), ASBs (HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.25), soda overall (HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.26) and artificially sweetened (AS) soda (HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.27) in the first follow-up interval.ConclusionsIncreased soda consumption may be associated with risk of liver cancer. The results suggest that decreasing consumption of SS soda by persons without diabetes, and AS soda by persons with diabetes, could be associated with reduced liver cancer risk.     

Estimating consumer preferences for different beverages using the BLP approach

The overconsumption of sugar is a significant problem in many jurisdictions, and one possible method to remedy this problem is the taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). To be able to implement an optimal tax, it is important to know the preferences and price sensitivity of consumers. This article therefore estimates the price elasticity of demand for different beverages in Quebec, using the Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (BLP) random parameter logistic demand model, combined with Nielsen data from 2010 to 2016 and the 2016 Canadian Census. The results suggest that the average consumer prefers high-calorie beverages containing fruits and vegetables, and the estimated price elasticities are between −4.40 (energy drinks) and −1.59 (regular soft drinks). As a result, consumers of energy drinks appear to reduce their consumption the most in the face of rising prices, whereas consumers of soft drinks will decrease their consumption the least. However, at a general level, the implementation of a tax on SSBs in Quebec should generate a significant reduction in consumption.     

Taxed and untaxed beverage intake by South African young adults after a national sugar-sweetened beverage tax: A before-and-after study

BackgroundIn an effort to prevent and reduce the prevalence rate of people with obesity and diabetes, South Africa implemented a sugar-content-based tax called the Health Promotion Levy in April 2018, one of the first sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes to be based on each gram of sugar (beyond 4 g/100 ml). This before-and-after study estimated changes in taxed and untaxed beverage intake 1 year after the tax, examining separately, to our knowledge for the first time, the role of reformulation distinct from behavioral changes in SSB intake.Methods and findingsWe collected single-day 24-hour dietary recalls from repeat cross-sectional surveys of adults aged 18–39 years in Langa, South Africa. Participants were recruited in February–March 2018 (pre-tax, n = 2,459) and February–March 2019 (post-tax, n = 2,489) using door-to-door sampling. We developed time-specific food composition tables (FCTs) for South African beverages before and after the tax, linked with the diet recalls. By linking pre-tax FCTs only to dietary intake data collected in the pre-tax and post-tax periods, we calculated changes in beverage intake due to behavioral change, assuming no reformulation. Next, we repeated the analysis using an updated FCT in the post-tax period to capture the marginal effect of reformulation. We estimated beverage intake using a 2-part model that takes into consideration the biases in using ordinary least squares or other continuous variable approaches with many individuals with zero intake. First, a probit model was used to estimate the probability of consuming the specific beverage category. Then, conditional on a positive outcome, a generalized linear model with a log-link was used to estimate the continuous amount of beverage consumed. Among taxed beverages, sugar intake decreased significantly (p < 0.0001) from 28.8 g/capita/day (95% CI 27.3–30.4) pre-tax to 19.8 (95% CI 18.5–21.1) post-tax. Energy intake decreased (p < 0.0001) from 121 kcal/capita/day (95% CI 114–127) pre-tax to 82 (95% CI 76–87) post-tax. Volume intake decreased (p < 0.0001) from 315 ml/capita/day (95% CI 297–332) pre-tax to 198 (95% CI 185–211) post-tax. Among untaxed beverages, sugar intake increased (p < 0.0001) by 5.3 g/capita/day (95% CI 3.7 to 6.9), and energy intake increased (p < 0.0001) by 29 kcal/capita/day (95% CI 19 to 39). Among total beverages, sugar intake decreased significantly (p = 0.004) by 3.7 (95% CI −6.2 to −1.2) g/capita/day. Behavioral change accounted for reductions of 24% in energy, 22% in sugar, and 23% in volume, while reformulation accounted for additional reductions of 8% in energy, 9% in sugar, and 14% in volume from taxed beverages. The key limitations of this study are an inability to make causal claims due to repeat cross-sectional data collection, and that the magnitude of reduction in taxed beverage intake may not be generalizable to higher income populations.ConclusionsUsing a large sample of a high-consuming, low-income population, we found large reductions in taxed beverage intake, separating the components of behavioral change from reformulation. This reduction was partially compensated by an increase in sugar and energy from untaxed beverages. Because policies such as taxes can incentivize reformulation, our use of an up-to-date FCT that reflects a rapidly changing food supply is novel and important for evaluating policy effects on intake.

Rina Swart and co-authors use real world data to demonstrate that sugar-sweetened beverage tax was associated with reduced sugary drink intake in a low-income population within a middle-income country.     

Sweetened beverages and risk of frailty among older women in the Nurses’ Health Study: A cohort study

BackgroundConsumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been consistently associated with a higher risk of obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and premature mortality, whereas evidence for artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs) and fruit juices on health is less solid. The aim of this study was to evaluate the consumption of SSBs, ASBs, and fruit juices in association with frailty risk among older women.Methods and findingsWe analyzed data from 71,935 women aged ≥60 (average baseline age was 63) participating in the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), an ongoing cohort study initiated in 1976 among female registered nurses in the United States. Consumption of beverages was derived from 6 repeated food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) administered between 1990 and 2010. Frailty was defined as having at least 3 of the following 5 criteria from the FRAIL scale: fatigue, poor strength, reduced aerobic capacity, having ≥5 chronic illnesses, and weight loss ≥5%. The occurrence of frailty was assessed every 4 years from 1992 to 2014. During 22 years of follow-up, we identified 11,559 incident cases of frailty. Consumption of SSBs was associated with higher risk of frailty after adjustment for diet quality, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, and medication use, specifically, the relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for ≥2 serving/day versus no SSB consumption was 1.32 (1.10, 1.57); p-value <0.001. ASBs were also associated with frailty [RR ≥2 serving/day versus no consumption: 1.28 (1.17, 1.39); p-value <0.001]. Orange juice was associated with lower risk of frailty [RR ≥1 serving/day versus no consumption: 0.82 (0.76, 0.87); p-value <0.001], whereas other juices were associated with a slightly higher risk [RR ≥1 serving/day versus no consumption: 1.15 (1.03, 1.28); p-value <0.001]. A limitation of this study is that, due to self-reporting of diet and frailty, certain misclassification bias cannot be ruled out; also, some residual confounding may persist.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that consumption of SSBs and ASBs was associated with a higher risk of frailty. However, orange juice intake showed an inverse association with frailty. These results need to be confirmed in further studies using other frailty definitions.

Ellen Struijk and colleagues investigate the association between sweetened beverage consumption and risk of frailty later in life.     

The Potential Impact of a 20% Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Obesity in South African Adults: A Mathematical Model

Background/Objectives

The prevalence of obesity in South Africa has risen sharply, as has the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Research shows that consumption of SSBs leads to weight gain in both adults and children, and reducing SSBs will significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and its related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% tax on SSBs on the prevalence of and obesity among adults in South Africa.

Methods

A mathematical simulation model was constructed to estimate the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the prevalence of obesity. We used consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and a previous meta-analysis of studies on own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs to estimate the shift in daily energy consumption expected of increased prices of SSBs, and energy balance equations to estimate shifts in body mass index. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the SA National Income Dynamics Survey 2012 to the lognormal distribution and shifting the mean values. Uncertainty was assessed with Monte Carlo simulations.

Results

A 20% tax is predicted to reduce energy intake by about 36kJ per day (95% CI: 9-68kJ). Obesity is projected to reduce by 3.8% (95% CI: 0.6%–7.1%) in men and 2.4% (95% CI: 0.4%–4.4%) in women. The number of obese adults would decrease by over 220 000 (95% CI: 24 197–411 759).

Conclusions

Taxing SSBs could impact the burden of obesity in South Africa particularly in young adults, as one component of a multi-faceted effort to prevent obesity.     

Decreasing the Burden of Type 2 Diabetes in South Africa: The Impact of Taxing Sugar-Sweetened Beverages

Introduction

Type 2 diabetes poses an increasing public health burden in South Africa (SA) with obesity as the main driver of the epidemic. Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) is linked to weight gain and reducing SSB consumption may significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the burden of diabetes in SA.

Methods and Findings

We constructed a life table-based model in Microsoft Excel (2010). Consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations were used to estimate changes in daily energy intake and its projected impact on BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Diabetes relative risk and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on diabetes burden. Diabetes cost estimates were obtained from the South African Council for Medical Schemes. Over 20 years, a 20% SSB tax could reduce diabetes incident cases by 106 000 in women (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 70 000–142 000) and by 54 000 in men (95% UI: 33 000–80 000); and prevalence in all adults by 4.0% (95% UI: 2.7%-5.3%). Cumulatively over twenty years, approximately 21 000 (95% UI: 14 000–29 000) adult T2DM-related deaths, 374 000 DALYs attributed to T2DM (95% UI: 299 000–463 000) and over ZAR10 billion T2DM healthcare costs (95% UI: ZAR6.8–14.0 billion) equivalent to USD860 million (95% UI: USD570 million–USD1.2 billion) may be averted.

Conclusion

Fiscal policy on SSBs has the potential to mitigate the diabetes epidemic in South Africa and contribute to the National Department of Health goals stated in the National NCD strategic plan.     

Obesity and Sugar‐sweetened Beverages in African‐American Preschool Children: A Longitudinal Study

A representative sample of 365 low‐income African‐American preschool children aged 3–5 years was studied to determine the association between sugar‐sweetened beverage consumption (soda, fruit drinks, and both combined) and overweight and obesity. Children were examined at a dental clinic in 2002–2003 and again after 2 years. Dietary information was collected using the Block Kids Food Frequency Questionnaire. A BMI score was computed from recorded height and weight. Overweight and obesity were defined by national reference age‐sex specific BMI: those with an age‐sex specific BMI ≥85th, but <95th percentile as overweight and those with BMI ≥95th age‐sex specific percentile as obese. The prevalence of overweight was 12.9% in baseline, and increased to 18.7% after 2 years. The prevalence of obesity increased from 10.3 to 20.4% during the same period. Baseline intake of soda and all sugar‐sweetened beverages were positively associated with baseline BMI z‐scores. After adjusting for covariates, additional intake of fruit drinks and all sugar‐sweetened beverages at baseline showed significantly higher odds of incidence of overweight over 2 years. Among a longitudinal cohort of African‐American preschool children, high consumption of sugar‐sweetened beverages was significantly associated with an increased risk for obesity.     

Replacing sweetened caloric beverages with drinking water is associated with lower energy intake

Objective: Reduced intake of sweetened caloric beverages (SCBs) is recommended to lower total energy intake. Replacing SCBs with non‐caloric diet beverages does not automatically lower energy intake, however. Compensatory increases in other food or beverages reportedly negate benefits of diet beverages. The purpose of this study was to evaluate drinking water as an alternative to SCBs. Research Methods and Procedures: Secondary analysis of data from the Stanford A TO Z intervention evaluated change in beverage pattern and total energy intake in 118 overweight women (25 to 50 years) who regularly consumed SCBs (>12 ounces/d) at baseline. At baseline and 2, 6, and 12 months, mean daily beverage intake (SCBs, drinking water, non‐caloric diet beverages, and nutritious caloric beverages), food composition (macronutrient, water, and fiber content), and total energy intake were estimated using three 24‐hour diet recalls. Beverage intake was expressed in relative terms (percentage of beverages). Results: In fixed effects models that controlled for total beverage intake, non‐caloric and nutritious caloric beverage intake (percentage of beverages), food composition, and energy expenditure [metabolic equivalent (MET)], replacing SCBs with drinking water was associated with significant decreases in total energy intake that were sustained over time. The caloric deficit attributable to replacing SCBs with water was not negated by compensatory increases in other food or beverages. Replacing all SCBs with drinking water was associated with a predicted mean decrease in total energy of 200 kcal/d over 12 months. Discussion: The results suggest that replacing SCBs with drinking water can help lower total energy intake in overweight consumers of SCBs motivated to diet.     

Challenges of non-communicable diseases and sustainable development of China and India

In light of the global Sustainable Development Goals initiated in 2016, the present paper analyses different aspects of addressing Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes - the major causes of global deaths and disability; discusses the burden of NCDs in China and India - the two most populous countries of the world; reviews their progress and shortfalls in addressing NCDs; and identifies the way forward to tackle successfully the problem of NCDs for sustainable development. The study is based on secondary sources of data available from the World Health Organisation (WHO), World Bank (WB), United Nations and other published sources.Increased public health expenditure, measured as a proportion of the total health expenditure while implementing Universal Health Coverage, has produced repercussive positive advantages in China. Both China and India have implemented initiatives towards the prevention and control of NCDs in light of WHO Global targets. However, the progress monitoring indicators reveal that, on many fronts, either the commitments are partially achieved, or not yet achieved. This needs increased support to the public sector healthcare system, with a parallel policy and legislation driven approach.     

Loneliness,Social Integration and Consumption of Sugar-Containing Beverages: Testing the Social Baseline Theory

Objective

Social Baseline Theory (SBT) proposes that close relationships aid in metabolic resource management and that individuals without significant relationships may experience more demands on their own neural metabolic resources on a daily basis when solving problems, remaining vigilant against potential threats and regulating emotional responses. This study tests a hypothesised consequence derived from SBT: relative social isolation leads to increased levels of sugar intake.

Methods

Based on cross-sectional, self-reported data from the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (N = 90 084), information on social integration and the consumption of both sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened sodas and juices was obtained from a large number of women in early pregnancy. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to assess whether loneliness, marital status, relationship satisfaction, advice from others than partner, and cohesion at work is associated with consumption of sodas and juices.

Results

Perceived loneliness was associated with elevated intake of all sugary beverages, while relationship satisfaction was negatively associated with all sugary beverages. Being married or cohabitating, having supportive friends, and having a sense of togetherness at work were associated with lower intake of two out of three sugar-containing beverages. These associations were significant, even after controlling for factors such as body mass index, weight related self-image, depression, physical activity, educational level, age and income. In comparison, a statistically significant relationship emerged between relationship satisfaction and artificially sweetened cola. No other predictor variables were significantly associated with any type of artificially sweetened beverage.

Conclusions

This study indicates that loneliness and social integration influence the level of consumption of sugary beverages. The results support the hypothesis derived from the Social Baseline Theory that relative social isolation leads to increased levels of sugar intake.     

Averting Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes in India through Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxation: An Economic-Epidemiologic Modeling Study

Background

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been proposed in high-income countries to reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes. We sought to estimate the potential health effects of such a fiscal strategy in the middle-income country of India, where there is heterogeneity in SSB consumption, patterns of substitution between SSBs and other beverages after tax increases, and vast differences in chronic disease risk within the population.

Methods and Findings

Using consumption and price variations data from a nationally representative survey of 100,855 Indian households, we first calculated how changes in SSB price alter per capita consumption of SSBs and substitution with other beverages. We then incorporated SSB sales trends, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes incidence data stratified by age, sex, income, and urban/rural residence into a validated microsimulation of caloric consumption, glycemic load, overweight/obesity prevalence, and type 2 diabetes incidence among Indian subpopulations facing a 20% SSB excise tax. The 20% SSB tax was anticipated to reduce overweight and obesity prevalence by 3.0% (95% CI 1.6%–5.9%) and type 2 diabetes incidence by 1.6% (95% CI 1.2%–1.9%) among various Indian subpopulations over the period 2014–2023, if SSB consumption continued to increase linearly in accordance with secular trends. However, acceleration in SSB consumption trends consistent with industry marketing models would be expected to increase the impact efficacy of taxation, averting 4.2% of prevalent overweight/obesity (95% CI 2.5–10.0%) and 2.5% (95% CI 1.0–2.8%) of incident type 2 diabetes from 2014–2023. Given current consumption and BMI distributions, our results suggest the largest relative effect would be expected among young rural men, refuting our a priori hypothesis that urban populations would be isolated beneficiaries of SSB taxation. Key limitations of this estimation approach include the assumption that consumer expenditure behavior from prior years, captured in price elasticities, will reflect future behavior among consumers, and potential underreporting of consumption in dietary recall data used to inform our calculations.

Conclusion

Sustained SSB taxation at a high tax rate could mitigate rising obesity and type 2 diabetes in India among both urban and rural subpopulations. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Sugar Sweetened Beverages and Weight Gain over 4 Years in a Thai National Cohort – A Prospective Analysis

Introduction

Sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) are implicated in the rising prevalence of obesity and diet-related chronic diseases worldwide. However, little is known about their contribution to weight gain in Asian populations. This study aimed to investigate weight change associated with SSB consumption between 2005 and 2009 in a large national cohort of Thai university students.

Methods

Questionnaire data were collected from a large Thai cohort (the Thai Health-Risk Transition: a National Cohort Study). The analysis was based on responses from 59 283 of the 60 569 (98%) cohort members who had valid SSB consumption and weight variables in 2005 and 2009. The relationship between SSB consumption in 2005 and self-reported weight change was analysed using multiple linear regression models controlled for socio-demographic, activity and (non-validated) dietary factors shown to influence weight.

Results

Higher frequency of SSB consumption in 2005 was significantly associated with greater weight gain between 2005 and 2009 in all age groups and in both sexes (p<0.0001); persons who consumed SSBs at least once a day in 2005 gained 0.5 kg more than those who consumed SSBs less than once a month. The estimated weight gain for the average person in the sample was 1.9 kg (95% C I 1.95–1.96). The difference in weight gain between those who increased their consumption frequency (<once a month to > once per day) between 2005 and 2009 compared to those who maintained it was 0.3 kgs, while persons who reduced their consumption frequency (once a day to > once a month) gained 0.2 kgs less than those whose consumption remained unchanged.

Conclusion

SSB consumption is independently associated with weight gain in the Thai population. Research and health promotion in Thailand and other economically transitioning countries should focus on reducing their contribution to population weight gain and to diet-related chronic diseases.