Fertility intentions and subsequent fertility behaviour in Matlab: do fertility intentions matter?

This study examines the extent of the interrelationship between future fertility intention and subsequent fertility behaviour in rural Bangladesh using longitudinal data. It confirms that fertility intention is an important predictor of subsequent fertility behaviour for rural Bangladeshi women. Women wanting no more children are over three times less likely to have a child during a 5-year follow-up than those wanting more children. A multivariate model using logistic regression shows that fertility intention is a useful indicator for fertility behaviour, when background and life-cycle variables are controlled. The different patterns of fertility intentions by socioeconomic and demographic subgroups suggest that different programme strategies should be designed for specific target groups.     

The domestic context of production and reproduction in a Guatemalan community

This paper investigates the relationship between fertility and domestic adjustments that people have made to changing conditions of production and consumption in a rural community in western Guatemala. Present and past systems of production and the domestic factors affecting the timing of family formation and the incidence of sexual activity within unions are described. Analyses of variance for demographic variables among three productive sectors reveals that the greatest changes in fertility over time have occurred in the families of labor-intensive garlic producers and in those of poor basketmaking specialists. The results are discussed as direct and indirect outcomes of earlier family formation due to recurrent labor crises and chronic subsistence stress.     

A causal approach to the study of fertility and familism

This paper tests, within the framework of LISREL, the causal structures of fertility using data from the 1973-74 Growth of Alberta Family Study (GAFS) of women aged 18-44 who are currently married or living common-law. Differential fertility among two groups of women classified by nativity also are examined. The women's background characteristics (e.g., age, religiosity, and education) are viewed as exogenous variables. The endogenous variables are familism and expected family size; familism is designated as an intermediate variable in the model, linking demographic and socioeconomic (including cultural) factors to fertility, The results indicate that familism acts as an important variable explaining fertility, particularly, among foreign-born women. The study confirms and extends earlier research findings that religiosity and education influence couples' fertility, the former positively and the latter negatively.     

The effects of type of female circumcision on infertility and fertility in Sudan

This study explores the association between type of female circumcision and infertility and fertility in Sudan using the 1989-90 Demographic and Health Survey. It is hypothesized that women with either Pharaonic or Intermediate circumcision would have higher infertility and lower fertility compared with women with Sunna circumcision, and that uncircumcised women would have the lowest infertility and highest fertility of the three groups. This hypothesis, a widely held assumption, proved to be largely incorrect. Though women with Pharaonic or Intermediate circumcision did have a higher prevalence of primary infertility than uncircumcised women, women with Sunna circumcision had even lower rates of primary infertility compared with uncircumcised women. This pattern prevailed in multivariate models controlling for confounding variables, where women with Pharaonic or Intermediate circumcision had significantly higher primary infertility. Moreover, though women with Pharaonic or Intermediate circumcision also had the highest prevalence of secondary infertility, once confounding covariates were controlled in multivariate models, there was no significant difference among the three groups of women. With respect to fertility, the total fertility rate was 7.6 for women with Pharaonic or Intermediate circumcision, 8.1 for women with Sunna circumcision and 8.3 for uncircumcised women. Differences in fertility were found to be insignificant when covariates were controlled. The multivariate models were estimated using logistic regression. In conclusion, Pharaonic or Intermediate circumcision may be associated with higher primary infertility while there was no evidence suggesting that either secondary infertility or fertility was associated with a woman's circumcision status.     

Demographic, social, and economic effects on Mexican causes of death in 1990

This study examined spatial geographic patterns of cause of death and 28 demographic and socioeconomic influences on causes of death for 31 Mexican states plus the Federal District for 1990. Mortality data were obtained from the state death registration system and are age standardized. The 28 socioeconomic variables were obtained from Census records. Analysis included 2 submodels: one with all 28 socioeconomic variables in a stepwise regression, and one with each of the 4 groups of factors. The conceptual model is based on epidemiological transition theory and empirical findings. There are 4 stages in mortality decline. Effects are grouped as demographic, sociocultural, economic prosperity, and housing, health, and crime factors. Findings indicate that cancer and cardiovascular disease were strongly correlated and consistently high in border areas as well as the Federal District and Jalisco. Respiratory mortality had higher values in the Federal District, Puebla, and surrounding states, as well as Jalisco. The standardized total mortality rate was only in simple correlations associated inversely with underemployment. All cause specific mortality was associated with individual factors. Respiratory mortality was linked with manufacturing work force. Cardiovascular and cancer mortality were associated with socioeconomic factors. In submodel I, cause specific mortality was predicted by crowding, housing characteristics, marriage and divorce, and manufacturing work force. In submodel II, economic group factors had the strongest model fits explaining 33-60% of the "r" square. Hypothesized effects were only partially validated.     

Testing and clarifying a macro model of socioeconomic change and fertility

This study examines human reproduction and its causal links to the socioeconomic conditions of society within the framework of the demographic transition. A theoretical fertility model for 100 countries -- 28 more developed countries (MDCs) and 72 less developed countries (LDCs) -- is subjected to path analysis. Findings for the 100 countries were mainly a function of the LDCs. Stronger support was found in the LDCs for the indirect fertility-inhibiting effect of economic development than for its fertility-promoting effect. This indirect effect was by far the most important cause of fertility decline, although there were smaller positive direct effects of economic development and government attitudes towards family planning. When education/literacy was controlled, economic development became a negative, but insignificant, influence on fertility, and the effect of government attitudes toward family planning exhibited no effect on fertility. These findings suggest strongly that improvement of education and literacy may be an answer to fertility control. Changes in health service and infant mortality seem natural results of the betterment of education and literacy. This study reconciles the 2 distinct views as to whether fertility increases or remains stable and high while mortality declines during early demographic transition. Both offer valid explanations for the transition in LDCs. Results for the LDCs are compared with those for the MDCs, and policy implications are discussed.     

The coevolution of human fertility and wealth inheritance strategies.

Life history theory concerns the scheduling of births and the level of parental investment in each offspring. In most human societies the inheritance of wealth is an important part of parental investment. Patterns of wealth inheritance and other reproductive decisions, such as family size, would be expected to influence each other. Here I present an adaptive model of human reproductive decision-making, using a state-dependent dynamic model. Two decisions made by parents are considered: when to have another baby, and thus the pattern of reproduction through life; and how to allocate resources between children at the end of the parents'' life. Optimal decision rules are those that maximize the number of grandchildren. Decisions are assumed to depend on the state of the parent, which is described at any time by two variables: number of living sons, and wealth. The dynamics of the model are based on a traditional African pastoralist system, but it is general enough to approximate to any means of subsistence where an increase in the amount of wealth owned increases the capacity for future production of resources. The model is used to show that, in the unpredictable environment of a traditional pastoralist society, high fertility and a biasing of wealth inheritance to a small number of children are frequently optimal. Most such societies are now undergoing a transition to lower fertility, known as the demographic transition. The effects on fertility and wealth inheritance strategies of reducing mortality risks, reducing the unpredictability of the environment and increasing the costs of raising children are explored. Reducing mortality has little effect on completed family sizes of living children or on the wealth they inherit. Increasing the costs of raising children decreases optimal fertility and increases the inheritance left to each child at each level of wealth, and has the potential to reduce fertility to very low levels. The results offer an explanation for why wealthy families are frequently also those with the smallest number of children in heterogeneous, post-transition societies.     

What Determines Habitat Quality for a Declining Woodland Bird in a Fragmented Environment: The Grey-Crowned Babbler Pomatostomus temporalis in South-Eastern Australia?

Understanding what constitutes high quality habitat is crucial for the conservation of species, especially those threatened with extinction. Habitat quality frequently is inferred by comparing the attributes of sites where a species is present with those where it is absent. However, species presence may not always indicate high quality habitat. Demographic parameters are likely to provide a more biologically relevant measure of quality, including a species’ ability to successfully reproduce. We examined factors believed to influence territory quality for the grey-crowned babbler (Pomatostomus temporalis), a cooperatively breeding woodland bird that has experienced major range contraction and population decline in south-eastern Australia. Across three broad regions, we identified active territories and determined the presence of fledglings and the size of family groups, as surrogates of territory quality. These measures were modelled in relation to habitat attributes within territories, the extent of surrounding wooded vegetation, isolation from neighbouring groups, and the size of the neighbourhood population. Fledgling presence was strongly positively associated with group size, indicating that helpers enhance breeding success. Surprisingly, no other territory or landscape-scale variables predicted territory quality, as inferred from either breeding success or group size. Relationships between group size and environmental variables may be obscured by longer-term dynamics in group size. Variation in biotic interactions, notably competition from the noisy miner (Manorina melanocephala), also may contribute. Conservation actions that enhance the number and size of family groups will contribute towards reversing declines of this species. Despite associated challenges, demographic studies have potential to identify mechanistic processes that underpin population performance; critical knowledge for effective conservation management.     

Parental investment and the optimization of human family size

Human reproductive behaviour is marked by exceptional variation at the population and individual level. Human behavioural ecologists propose adaptive hypotheses to explain this variation as shifting phenotypic optima in relation to local socioecological niches. Here we review evidence that variation in fertility (offspring number), in both traditional and modern industrialized populations, represents optimization of the life-history trade-off between reproductive rate and parental investment. While a reliance on correlational methods suggests the true costs of sibling resource competition are often poorly estimated, a range of anthropological and demographic studies confirm that parents balance family size against offspring success. Evidence of optimization is less forthcoming. Declines in fertility associated with modernization are particularly difficult to reconcile with adaptive models, because fertility limitation fails to enhance offspring reproductive success. Yet, considering alternative measures, we show that modern low fertility confers many advantages on offspring, which are probably transmitted to future generations. Evidence from populations that have undergone or initiated demographic transition indicate that these rewards to fertility limitation fall selectively on relatively wealthy individuals. The adaptive significance of modern reproductive behaviour remains difficult to evaluate, but may be best understood in response to rising investment costs of rearing socially and economically competitive offspring.     

Clinical implications of genetic susceptibility to diabetes mellitus

Abstract

Relatively little attention has been given to the interpretation of age‐at‐marriage differences in fertility. This paper discusses possible demographic and sociological sources of this differential. The argument is made that sociological interpretations deserve increased attention since most of the observed differential persists after control for likely demographic components (premarital pregnancy, unwanted fertility, and subfecundity) and for correlated social and background variables (education of self and parents, religion, farm background, number of siblings, whether respondent's parental family was intact, and husband's age at marriage). Multiple‐classification analysis is employed. The analysis concludes by noting that age at first birth has an even stronger relationship with fertility than age at marriage and that the sociological dimensions of age relevant to age at marriage are even more appropriate to age at entrance into motherhood.     

THE EFFECT OF FLOWER PRODUCTION ON MALE REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS IN WILD RADISH POPULATIONS

Flower production is the major determinant of pollen yield and an important component in pollinator attraction. Consequently differences among plants in flower production are expected to have a substantial impact on their relative success at fathering seed. We examined this prediction using one natural and three structured populations of wild radish. We found that a plant's relative success at fathering seed on another plant in the population (male fertility) increased with flower production. Nonetheless, the increase in fertility exhibited a diminishing marginal gain, with the relationship varying among populations. The relationship between the estimates of total number of seeds sired and flower production varied substantially among the populations examined, ranging from a weakly linear to strongly negative quadratic. Not surprisingly, the spatial structure of the population with respect to seed yield had a powerful effect on the total number of seeds sired because male fertility decreased exponentially with intermate distance. This exponential relationship occurred in all populations examined. Other covariates important to male fertility were flower color, time, the specific identity of the male parent, and male by female interaction. The identity of the male parent consistently accounted for a large portion of the variation in male fertility, indicating that other unmeasured features of the plant influenced its success.     

Stall in fertility decline in Eastern African countries: regional analysis of patterns,determinants and implications

We use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys to examine the patterns of stall in fertility decline in four Eastern African countries. Contrary to patterns of fertility transition in Africa that cut across various socio-economic and geographical groups within countries, we find strong selectivity of fertility stall across different groups and regions in all four countries. In both Kenya and Tanzania where fertility decline has stalled at the national level, it continued to decline among the most educated women and in some regions. While fertility has remained at pre-transition level in Uganda over the past 20 years, there are signs of decline with specific groups of women (especially the most educated, urban and those in the Eastern region) taking the lead. For Zimbabwe, although fertility has continued to decline at the national level, stall is observed among women with less than secondary education and those in some of the regions. We link these intra-country variations to differential changes in socio-economic variables, family planning programme environment and reproductive behaviour models. The results suggest that declines in contraceptive use, increases in unmet need for family planning, increasing preferences for larger families, and increases in adolescent fertility were consistently associated with stalls in subgroup fertility across all four countries. These results are consistent with models that emphasize the role of declines in national and international commitments to family planning programmes in the premature stall in sub-Saharan fertility transition.     

Prevalence and risk factors of malaria in Ethiopia

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: More than 75% of the total area of Ethiopia is malarious, making malaria the leading public health problem in Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence rate and the associated socio-economic, geographic and demographic factors of malaria based on the rapid diagnosis test (RDT) survey results. METHODS: From December 2006 to January 2007, a baseline malaria indicator survey in Amhara, Oromiya and Southern Nation Nationalities and People (SNNP) regions of Ethiopia was conducted by The Carter Center. This study uses this data. The method of generalized linear model was used to analyse the data and the response variable was the presence or absence of malaria using the rapid diagnosis test (RDT). RESULTS: The analyses show that the RDT result was significantly associated with age and gender. Other significant covariates confounding variables are source of water, trip to obtain water, toilet facility, total number of rooms, material used for walls, and material used for roofing. The prevalence of malaria for households with clean water found to be less. Malaria rapid diagnosis found to be higher for thatch and stick/mud roof and earth/local dung plaster floor. Moreover, spraying anti-malaria to the house was found to be one means of reducing the risk of malaria. Furthermore, the housing condition, source of water and its distance, gender, and ages in the households were identified in order to have two-way interaction effects. CONCLUSION: Individuals with poor socio-economic conditions are positively associated with malaria infection. Improving the housing condition of the household is one of the means of reducing the risk of malaria. Children and female household members are the most vulnerable to the risk of malaria. Such information is essential to design improved strategic intervention for the reduction of malaria epidemic in Ethiopia.     

Intergenerational transmission of fertility in Spain among cohorts born during the first half of twentieth century

It is known that historically fertility is correlated between generations of the same family. These links tend to be explained either in terms of the biogenetic determinants of reproduction or by the transmission of intra-familial values associated with reproduction and family life. Less is known about the micro-determinants of these links or about the extent to which the progressive modernization of reproductive outcomes over the past century has affected behavior. In this paper, we will address these issues for Spain with data from the Socio-Demographic Survey (SDS) carried out in 1991 and including data on cohorts born between 1900 and 1946. These data enable us to explore the micro determinants of fertility at different points of time during this period. Our results point to the existence of a significant correlation between intergenerational reproductive outcomes that persists and strengthens throughout this period of demographic change. Results confirm the importance of birth order in large family groups where firstborn offspring are more likely to have larger families than subsequent siblings. There is also evidence that the strength of these intergenerational ties increases with the onset of more modern demographic behavior characterized by sharply declining fertility. The results presented here promise to condition future debates on the subject.     

Armadillo meat intake was not associated with leprosy in a case control study, Curitiba (Brazil)

Leprosy's progression and its maintained endemic status, despite the availability of effective treatments, are not fully understood and recent studies have highlighted the possibility of involved Mycobacterium leprae ambient reservoirs. Wild armadillos can carry leprosy and, because their meat is eaten by humans, development of the disease among armadillo meat consumers has been investigated. This study evaluated the frequency of armadillo meat intake among leprosy patients as well as age and gender matched controls with other skin diseases from a dermatological unit. Armadillo meat consumption among both groups was adjusted by demographic and socioeconomic covariates based on a conditional multiple logistic regression model. One hundred twenty-one cases and 242 controls were evaluated; they differed in socioeconomic variables such as family income, hometown population and access to treated water. The multivariate analysis did not show an association between the intake of armadillo meat and leprosy (odds ratio = 1.07; CI 95% 0.56-2.04), even when only cases with no known contacts were analyzed. We conclude that leprosy is not associated with the intake of armadillo meat in these patients.     

Polygyny and fertility differentials among the Yoruba of western Nigeria

Data are analysed from the 1973 surveys of the Nigerian segment of the Changing African Family (CAFN) Project, which covered Yoruba women and men in Ibadan and the Western State of Nigeria. Of the 5874 women who were in union during the CAFN 1 survey, 54% reported that their husband had only 1 wife and 46% that their husband had more than 1 wife. Of the 1234 women in unions in the CAFN 2 survey, 49% reported monogamous husbands and 51% polygynous husbands. Differentials in fertility levels between women in monogamous unions and those in polygynous ones are investigated using mean number of children ever born as the measure of fertility. Factors examined include proportion of childless and infertile women, frequency of intercourse, age, educational level, religion, marital mobility (divorce) rank of wife and sexual abstinence. The CAFN 1 survey shows that wives of polygynists tend to be older than those of monogamists. Because of this the reported mean number of children ever born was higher for the wives of polygynists than for the wives of monogamists. When the data are standardized for the difference in age, the fertility levels of the women in the 2 types of unions were much closer to each other. When religion, education, abstinence, and occupation are also taken into account, it is observed that the 2 groups of women have similar levels of fertility. A multiple classification analysis was performed using number of wives of husband, educational level, religion and father's occupation as variables and occupation of spouse, place of birth, length of abstinence, contraceptive practice and age as covariates. The result also shows that the number of wives of the husband does not significantly affect the fertility level of women when other factors are taken into account. A high proportion of the Yoruba women are in polygynous unions and most of those in monogamous unions are potential wives of polygynists. Because of this, and particularly because most women try to have as many children as they can, the women in the 2 types of unions experience similar levels of fertility.     

Female Employment Reduces Fertility in Rural Senegal

Economic growth and modernization of society are generally associated with fertility rate decreases but which forces trigger this is unclear. In this paper we assess how fertility changes with increased labor market participation of women in rural Senegal. Evidence from high-income countries suggests that higher female employment rates lead to reduced fertility rates but evidence from developing countries at an early stage of demographic transition is largely absent. We concentrate on a rural area in northern Senegal where a recent boom in horticultural exports has been associated with a sudden increase in female off-farm employment. Using survey data we show that employed women have a significantly higher age at marriage and at first childbirth, and significantly fewer children. As causal identification strategy we use instrumental variable and difference-in-differences estimations, combined with propensity score matching. We find that female employment reduces the number of children per woman by 25%, and that this fertility-reducing effect is as large for poor as for non-poor women and larger for illiterate than for literate women. Results imply that female employment is a strong instrument for empowering rural women, reducing fertility rates and accelerating the demographic transition in poor countries. The effectiveness of family planning programs can increase if targeted to areas where female employment is increasing or to female employees directly because of a higher likelihood to reach women with low-fertility preferences. Our results show that changes in fertility preferences not necessarily result from a cultural evolution but can also be driven by sudden and individual changes in economic opportunities.     

Household extension and reproductive behaviour in Taiwan

The inflence of household type on reproductive behavior is examined for a national probability sample of Taiwanese women. Data were derived from a 1980 national household survey of the labor force in Taiwan, focusing on 10,624 couples. Reproductive variables include measures of current and prospective fertility as well as cumulative fertility. In spite of remarkable social and economic development over the past 3 decades, extended families are still widely found in Taiwan. Women in extended households have only slightly higher fertility preferences and current fertility than women in nuclear families once marital duration is controlled. Although women in extended households marry earlier and receive more family help with child care than women in nuclear families, such factors are no longer considered sufficient to produce major differentials in reproductive behavior. Residence and husband's class of work are the strongest correlates of whether a household is currently extended or nuclear. In general, the husband's characteristics are more strongly related to family type than the wife's. Findings suggest that preferences for smaller families and low fertility need not await a transformation to a nuclear family structue.     

Model-free conditional screening for ultrahigh-dimensional survival data via conditional distance correlation

How to select the active variables that have significant impact on the event of interest is a very important and meaningful problem in the statistical analysis of ultrahigh-dimensional data. In many applications, researchers often know that a certain set of covariates are active variables from some previous investigations and experiences. With the knowledge of the important prior knowledge of active variables, we propose a model-free conditional screening procedure for ultrahigh dimensional survival data based on conditional distance correlation. The proposed procedure can effectively detect the hidden active variables that are jointly important but are weakly correlated with the response. Moreover, it performs well when covariates are strongly correlated with each other. We establish the sure screening property and the ranking consistency of the proposed method and conduct extensive simulation studies, which suggests that the proposed procedure works well for practical situations. Then, we illustrate the new approach through a real dataset from the diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma study S1 .     

Determinants of Low Birth Weight in Malawi: Bayesian Geo-Additive Modelling

Studies on factors of low birth weight in Malawi have neglected the flexible approach of using smooth functions for some covariates in models. Such flexible approach reveals detailed relationship of covariates with the response. The study aimed at investigating risk factors of low birth weight in Malawi by assuming a flexible approach for continuous covariates and geographical random effect. A Bayesian geo-additive model for birth weight in kilograms and size of the child at birth (less than average or average and higher) with district as a spatial effect using the 2010 Malawi demographic and health survey data was adopted. A Gaussian model for birth weight in kilograms and a binary logistic model for the binary outcome (size of child at birth) were fitted. Continuous covariates were modelled by the penalized (p) splines and spatial effects were smoothed by the two dimensional p-spline. The study found that child birth order, mother weight and height are significant predictors of birth weight. Secondary education for mother, birth order categories 2-3 and 4-5, wealth index of richer family and mother height were significant predictors of child size at birth. The area associated with low birth weight was Chitipa and areas with increased risk to less than average size at birth were Chitipa and Mchinji. The study found support for the flexible modelling of some covariates that clearly have nonlinear influences. Nevertheless there is no strong support for inclusion of geographical spatial analysis. The spatial patterns though point to the influence of omitted variables with some spatial structure or possibly epidemiological processes that account for this spatial structure and the maps generated could be used for targeting development efforts at a glance.