The importance of identity-by-state information for the accuracy of genomic selection

Background

It is commonly assumed that prediction of genome-wide breeding values in genomic selection is achieved by capitalizing on linkage disequilibrium between markers and QTL but also on genetic relationships. Here, we investigated the reliability of predicting genome-wide breeding values based on population-wide linkage disequilibrium information, based on identity-by-descent relationships within the known pedigree, and to what extent linkage disequilibrium information improves predictions based on identity-by-descent genomic relationship information.

Methods

The study was performed on milk, fat, and protein yield, using genotype data on 35 706 SNP and deregressed proofs of 1086 Italian Brown Swiss bulls. Genome-wide breeding values were predicted using a genomic identity-by-state relationship matrix and a genomic identity-by-descent relationship matrix (averaged over all marker loci). The identity-by-descent matrix was calculated by linkage analysis using one to five generations of pedigree data.

Results

We showed that genome-wide breeding values prediction based only on identity-by-descent genomic relationships within the known pedigree was as or more reliable than that based on identity-by-state, which implicitly also accounts for genomic relationships that occurred before the known pedigree. Furthermore, combining the two matrices did not improve the prediction compared to using identity-by-descent alone. Including different numbers of generations in the pedigree showed that most of the information in genome-wide breeding values prediction comes from animals with known common ancestors less than four generations back in the pedigree.

Conclusions

Our results show that, in pedigreed breeding populations, the accuracy of genome-wide breeding values obtained by identity-by-descent relationships was not improved by identity-by-state information. Although, in principle, genomic selection based on identity-by-state does not require pedigree data, it does use the available pedigree structure. Our findings may explain why the prediction equations derived for one breed may not predict accurate genome-wide breeding values when applied to other breeds, since family structures differ among breeds.     

Impact of selective genotyping in the training population on accuracy and bias of genomic selection

Estimating marker effects based on routinely generated phenotypic data of breeding programs is a cost-effective strategy to implement genomic selection. Truncation selection in breeding populations, however, could have a strong impact on the accuracy to predict genomic breeding values. The main objective of our study was to investigate the influence of phenotypic selection on the accuracy and bias of genomic selection. We used experimental data of 788 testcross progenies from an elite maize breeding program. The testcross progenies were evaluated in unreplicated field trials in ten environments and fingerprinted with 857 SNP markers. Random regression best linear unbiased prediction method was used in combination with fivefold cross-validation based on genotypic sampling. We observed a substantial loss in the accuracy to predict genomic breeding values in unidirectional selected populations. In contrast, estimating marker effects based on bidirectional selected populations led to only a marginal decrease in the prediction accuracy of genomic breeding values. We concluded that bidirectional selection is a valuable approach to efficiently implement genomic selection in applied plant breeding programs.     

Predicted accuracy of and response to genomic selection for new traits in dairy cattle

Genomic selection relaxes the requirement of traditional selection tools to have phenotypic measurements on close relatives of all selection candidates. This opens up possibilities to select for traits that are difficult or expensive to measure. The objectives of this paper were to predict accuracy of and response to genomic selection for a new trait, considering that only a cow reference population of moderate size was available for the new trait, and that selection simultaneously targeted an index and this new trait. Accuracy for and response to selection were deterministically evaluated for three different breeding goals. Single trait selection for the new trait based only on a limited cow reference population of up to 10 000 cows, showed that maximum genetic responses of 0.20 and 0.28 genetic standard deviation (s.d.) per year can be achieved for traits with a heritability of 0.05 and 0.30, respectively. Adding information from the index based on a reference population of 5000 bulls, and assuming a genetic correlation of 0.5, increased genetic response for both heritability levels by up to 0.14 genetic s.d. per year. The scenario with simultaneous selection for the new trait and the index, yielded a substantially lower response for the new trait, especially when the genetic correlation with the index was negative. Despite the lower response for the index, whenever the new trait had considerable economic value, including the cow reference population considerably improved the genetic response for the new trait. For scenarios with a zero or negative genetic correlation with the index and equal economic value for the index and the new trait, a reference population of 2000 cows increased genetic response for the new trait with at least 0.10 and 0.20 genetic s.d. per year, for heritability levels of 0.05 and 0.30, respectively. We conclude that for new traits with a very small or positive genetic correlation with the index, and a high positive economic value, considerable genetic response can already be achieved based on a cow reference population with only 2000 records, even when the reliability of individual genomic breeding values is much lower than currently accepted in dairy cattle breeding programs. New traits may generally have a negative genetic correlation with the index and a small positive economic value. For such new traits, cow reference populations of at least 10 000 cows may be required to achieve acceptable levels of genetic response for the new trait and for the whole breeding goal.     

Multi-generational imputation of single nucleotide polymorphism marker genotypes and accuracy of genomic selection

Availability of high-density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping platforms provided unprecedented opportunities to enhance breeding programmes in livestock, poultry and plant species, and to better understand the genetic basis of complex traits. Using this genomic information, genomic breeding values (GEBVs), which are more accurate than conventional breeding values. The superiority of genomic selection is possible only when high-density SNP panels are used to track genes and QTLs affecting the trait. Unfortunately, even with the continuous decrease in genotyping costs, only a small fraction of the population has been genotyped with these high-density panels. It is often the case that a larger portion of the population is genotyped with low-density and low-cost SNP panels and then imputed to a higher density. Accuracy of SNP genotype imputation tends to be high when minimum requirements are met. Nevertheless, a certain rate of genotype imputation errors is unavoidable. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that the accuracy of GEBVs will be affected by imputation errors; especially, their cumulative effects over time. To evaluate the impact of multi-generational selection on the accuracy of SNP genotypes imputation and the reliability of resulting GEBVs, a simulation was carried out under varying updating of the reference population, distance between the reference and testing sets, and the approach used for the estimation of GEBVs. Using fixed reference populations, imputation accuracy decayed by about 0.5% per generation. In fact, after 25 generations, the accuracy was only 7% lower than the first generation. When the reference population was updated by either 1% or 5% of the top animals in the previous generations, decay of imputation accuracy was substantially reduced. These results indicate that low-density panels are useful, especially when the generational interval between reference and testing population is small. As the generational interval increases, the imputation accuracies decay, although not at an alarming rate. In absence of updating of the reference population, accuracy of GEBVs decays substantially in one or two generations at the rate of 20% to 25% per generation. When the reference population is updated by 1% or 5% every generation, the decay in accuracy was 8% to 11% after seven generations using true and imputed genotypes. These results indicate that imputed genotypes provide a viable alternative, even after several generations, as long the reference and training populations are appropriately updated to reflect the genetic change in the population.     

Experimental assessment of proton dose calculation accuracy in inhomogeneous media

PurposeProton therapy with Pencil Beam Scanning (PBS) has the potential to improve radiotherapy treatments. Unfortunately, its promises are jeopardized by the sensitivity of the dose distributions to uncertainties, including dose calculation accuracy in inhomogeneous media. Monte Carlo dose engines (MC) are expected to handle heterogeneities better than analytical algorithms like the pencil-beam convolution algorithm (PBA). In this study, an experimental phantom has been devised to maximize the effect of heterogeneities and to quantify the capability of several dose engines (MC and PBA) to handle these.MethodsAn inhomogeneous phantom made of water surrounding a long insert of bone tissue substitute (1 × 10 × 10 cm³) was irradiated with a mono-energetic PBS field (10 × 10 cm²). A 2D ion chamber array (MatriXX, IBA Dosimetry GmbH) lied right behind the bone. The beam energy was such that the expected range of the protons exceeded the detector position in water and did not attain it in bone. The measurement was compared to the following engines: Geant4.9.5, PENH, MCsquare, as well as the MC and PBA algorithms of RayStation (RaySearch Laboratories AB).ResultsFor a γ-index criteria of 2%/2 mm, the passing rates are 93.8% for Geant4.9.5, 97.4% for PENH, 93.4% for MCsquare, 95.9% for RayStation MC, and 44.7% for PBA. The differences in γ-index passing rates between MC and RayStation PBA calculations can exceed 50%.ConclusionThe performance of dose calculation algorithms in highly inhomogeneous media was evaluated in a dedicated experiment. MC dose engines performed overall satisfactorily while large deviations were observed with PBA as expected.     

The mass selection reservoir and sugarcane selection

Summary A method is proposed which extends the mass reservoir technique to the breeding of clonally propagated crops. The first phase produces a diverse array of clones by sexual recombination. Then the selection phase is conducted in one genotypically heterogeneous population. Such a population is termed a mass selection reservoir (MSR). In each generation of agricultural bulk planting, competitive ability is supplemented with a regime of artificial selection among propagules for fixing the rate at which each component genotype is advanced.A MSR programme has been initiated in sugarcane in Fiji. An analysis of the variation in selection characters demonstrated significant clonal effects at the single stalk (propagule) level. Sugar concentration was particularly repeatable on this basis. After two generations of selection, the MSR's performance at the population level at least equalled that of the best current commercial clone, Ragnar. It is therefore likely to include superior isolates of one or more clones.Two possible artificial selection methods are compared. These arise from either a linear (L) or multiplicative (M) combination of the two major selection criteria, sugar concentration and stalk weight. Although the M series differs genotypically from the L series, there is little difference to date in their respective population performances.     

Integration of genomic information into sport horse breeding programs for optimization of accuracy of selection

Reliable selection criteria are required for young riding horses to increase genetic gain by increasing accuracy of selection and decreasing generation intervals. In this study, selection strategies incorporating genomic breeding values (GEBVs) were evaluated. Relevant stages of selection in sport horse breeding programs were analyzed by applying selection index theory. Results in terms of accuracies of indices (r_TI) and relative selection response indicated that information on single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes considerably increases the accuracy of breeding values estimated for young horses without own or progeny performance. In a first scenario, the correlation between the breeding value estimated from the SNP genotype and the true breeding value (= accuracy of GEBV) was fixed to a relatively low value of r_mg = 0.5. For a low heritability trait (h² = 0.15), and an index for a young horse based only on information from both parents, additional genomic information doubles r_TI from 0.27 to 0.54. Including the conventional information source ‘own performance’ into the before mentioned index, additional SNP information increases r_TI by 40%. Thus, particularly with regard to traits of low heritability, genomic information can provide a tool for well-founded selection decisions early in life. In a further approach, different sources of breeding values (e.g. GEBV and estimated breeding values (EBVs) from different countries) were combined into an overall index when altering accuracies of EBVs and correlations between traits. In summary, we showed that genomic selection strategies have the potential to contribute to a substantial reduction in generation intervals in horse breeding programs.     

The accuracy of prediction of genomic selection in elite hybrid rye populations surpasses the accuracy of marker-assisted selection and is equally augmented by multiple field evaluation locations and test years

Background

Marker-assisted selection (MAS) and genomic selection (GS) based on genome-wide marker data provide powerful tools to predict the genotypic value of selection material in plant breeding. However, case-to-case optimization of these approaches is required to achieve maximum accuracy of prediction with reasonable input.

Results

Based on extended field evaluation data for grain yield, plant height, starch content and total pentosan content of elite hybrid rye derived from testcrosses involving two bi-parental populations that were genotyped with 1048 molecular markers, we compared the accuracy of prediction of MAS and GS in a cross-validation approach. MAS delivered generally lower and in addition potentially over-estimated accuracies of prediction than GS by ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP). The grade of relatedness of the plant material included in the estimation and test sets clearly affected the accuracy of prediction of GS. Within each of the two bi-parental populations, accuracies differed depending on the relatedness of the respective parental lines. Across populations, accuracy increased when both populations contributed to estimation and test set. In contrast, accuracy of prediction based on an estimation set from one population to a test set from the other population was low despite that the two bi-parental segregating populations under scrutiny shared one parental line. Limiting the number of locations or years in field testing reduced the accuracy of prediction of GS equally, supporting the view that to establish robust GS calibration models a sufficient number of test locations is of similar importance as extended testing for more than one year.

Conclusions

In hybrid rye, genomic selection is superior to marker-assisted selection. However, it achieves high accuracies of prediction only for selection candidates closely related to the plant material evaluated in field trials, resulting in a rather pessimistic prognosis for distantly related material. Both, the numbers of evaluation locations and testing years in trials contribute equally to prediction accuracy.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2164-15-556) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Accelerating the domestication of trees using genomic selection: accuracy of prediction models across ages and environments

? Genomic selection is increasingly considered vital to accelerate genetic improvement. However, it is unknown how accurate genomic selection prediction models remain when used across environments and ages. This knowledge is critical for breeders to apply this strategy in genetic improvement. ? Here, we evaluated the utility of genomic selection in a Pinus taeda population of c. 800 individuals clonally replicated and grown on four sites, and genotyped for 4825 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. Prediction models were estimated for diameter and height at multiple ages using genomic random regression best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP). ? Accuracies of prediction models ranged from 0.65 to 0.75 for diameter, and 0.63 to 0.74 for height. The selection efficiency per unit time was estimated as 53-112% higher using genomic selection compared with phenotypic selection, assuming a reduction of 50% in the breeding cycle. Accuracies remained high across environments as long as they were used within the same breeding zone. However, models generated at early ages did not perform well to predict phenotypes at age 6 yr. ? These results demonstrate the feasibility and remarkable gain that can be achieved by incorporating genomic selection in breeding programs, as long as models are used at the relevant selection age and within the breeding zone in which they were estimated.     

Performance of genomic selection in mice

Selection plans in plant and animal breeding are driven by genetic evaluation. Recent developments suggest using massive genetic marker information, known as "genomic selection." There is little evidence of its performance, though. We empirically compared three strategies for selection: (1) use of pedigree and phenotypic information, (2) use of genomewide markers and phenotypic information, and (3) the combination of both. We analyzed four traits from a heterogeneous mouse population (http://gscan.well.ox.ac.uk/), including 1884 individuals and 10,946 SNP markers. We used linear mixed models, using extensions of association analysis. Cross-validation techniques were used, providing assumption-free estimates of predictive ability. Sampling of validation and training data sets was carried out across and within families, which allows comparing across- and within-family information. Use of genomewide genetic markers increased predictive ability up to 0.22 across families and up to 0.03 within families. The latter is not statistically significant. These values are roughly comparable to increases of up to 0.57 (across family) and 0.14 (within family) in accuracy of prediction of genetic value. In this data set, within-family information was more accurate than across-family information, and populational linkage disequilibrium was not a completely accurate source of information for genetic evaluation. This fact questions some applications of genomic selection.     

Predicting genomic selection efficiency to optimize calibration set and to assess prediction accuracy in highly structured populations

Key message

We propose a criterion to predict genomic selection efficiency for structured populations. This criterion is useful to define optimal calibration set and to estimate prediction reliability for multiparental populations.

Abstract

Genomic selection refers to the use of genotypic information for predicting the performance of selection candidates. It has been shown that prediction accuracy depends on various parameters including the composition of the calibration set (CS). Assessing the level of accuracy of a given prediction scenario is of highest importance because it can be used to optimize CS sampling before collecting phenotypes, and once the breeding values are predicted it informs the breeders about the reliability of these predictions. Different criteria were proposed to optimize CS sampling in highly diverse panels, which can be useful to screen collections of genotypes. But plant breeders often work on structured material such as biparental or multiparental populations, for which these criteria are less adapted. We derived from the generalized coefficient of determination (CD) theory different criteria to optimize CS sampling and to assess the reliability associated to predictions in structured populations. These criteria were evaluated on two nested association mapping (NAM) populations and two highly diverse panels of maize. They were efficient to sample optimized CS in most situations. They could also estimate at least partly the reliability associated to predictions between NAM families, but they could not estimate differences in the reliability associated to the predictions of NAM families using the highly diverse panels as calibration sets. We illustrated that the CD criteria could be adapted to various prediction scenarios including inter and intra-family predictions, resulting in higher prediction accuracies.

     

Species-specific abundant retrotransposons elucidate the genomic composition of modern sugarcane cultivars

Chromosoma - Modern sugarcane cultivars are highly polyploid and derived from the hybridization of Saccharum officinarum and S. spontaneum, thus leading to singularly complex genomes. The complex...     

Dynamics of long-term genomic selection

Background

Simulation and empirical studies of genomic selection (GS) show accuracies sufficient to generate rapid gains in early selection cycles. Beyond those cycles, allele frequency changes, recombination, and inbreeding make analytical prediction of gain impossible. The impacts of GS on long-term gain should be studied prior to its implementation.

Methods

A simulation case-study of this issue was done for barley, an inbred crop. On the basis of marker data on 192 breeding lines from an elite six-row spring barley program, stochastic simulation was used to explore the effects of large or small initial training populations with heritabilities of 0.2 or 0.5, applying GS before or after phenotyping, and applying additional weight on low-frequency favorable marker alleles. Genomic predictions were from ridge regression or a Bayesian analysis.

Results

Assuming that applying GS prior to phenotyping shortened breeding cycle time by 50%, this practice strongly increased early selection gains but also caused the loss of many favorable QTL alleles, leading to loss of genetic variance, loss of GS accuracy, and a low selection plateau. Placing additional weight on low-frequency favorable marker alleles, however, allowed GS to increase their frequency earlier on, causing an initial increase in genetic variance. This dynamic led to higher long-term gain while mitigating losses in short-term gain. Weighted GS also increased the maintenance of marker polymorphism, ensuring that QTL-marker linkage disequilibrium was higher than in unweighted GS.

Conclusions

Losing favorable alleles that are in weak linkage disequilibrium with markers is perhaps inevitable when using GS. Placing additional weight on low-frequency favorable alleles, however, may reduce the rate of loss of such alleles to below that of phenotypic selection. Applying such weights at the beginning of GS implementation is important.     

Informative genomic microsatellite markers for efficient genotyping applications in sugarcane

Genomic microsatellite markers are capable of revealing high degree of polymorphism. Sugarcane (Saccharum sp.), having a complex polyploid genome requires more number of such informative markers for various applications in genetics and breeding. With the objective of generating a large set of microsatellite markers designated as Sugarcane Enriched Genomic MicroSatellite (SEGMS), 6,318 clones from genomic libraries of two hybrid sugarcane cultivars enriched with 18 different microsatellite repeat-motifs were sequenced to generate 4.16 Mb high-quality sequences. Microsatellites were identified in 1,261 of the 5,742 non-redundant clones that accounted for 22% enrichment of the libraries. Retro-transposon association was observed for 23.1% of the identified microsatellites. The utility of the microsatellite containing genomic sequences were demonstrated by higher primer designing potential (90%) and PCR amplification efficiency (87.4%). A total of 1,315 markers including 567 class I microsatellite markers were designed and placed in the public domain for unrestricted use. The level of polymorphism detected by these markers among sugarcane species, genera, and varieties was 88.6%, while cross-transferability rate was 93.2% within Saccharum complex and 25% to cereals. Cloning and sequencing of size variant amplicons revealed that the variation in the number of repeat-units was the main source of SEGMS fragment length polymorphism. High level of polymorphism and wide range of genetic diversity (0.16–0.82 with an average of 0.44) assayed with the SEGMS markers suggested their usefulness in various genotyping applications in sugarcane. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The impact of epistatic selection on the genomic traces of selection

The rapid accumulation of genomic data has led to an explosion of studies searching for signals of past selection left within DNA sequences. Yet the majority of theoretical studies investigating the traces of selection have assumed a simple form of selection, without interactions among selectively fixed sites. Fitness interactions—‘epistasis’—are commonplace, however, and take on a myriad of forms ( Whitlock et al. 1995 ; Segrèet al. 2005 ; Phillips 2008 ). It is thus important to determine how such epistasis would influence selective sweeps. On p. 5018 of this issue, Takahasi (2009) explores the effect of epistasis on genetic variation neighbouring two sites that interact in determining fitness, finding that such epistasis has a dramatic impact on the genetic variability in regions surrounding the interacting sites.     

Studies on in vitro selection of Fe-efficient lines in sugarcane

The objective of this research was to show how a mechanistic uptake model that accurately predicts phosphorus (P) uptake by maize (Zea mays L.) in a pot experiment may be used to evaluate the reasons for the differences in P availability observed when soil pH is varied. The model predicts P uptake by integrating soil P supply by mass flow and diffusion; size, shape and growth rate of roots; and P uptake kinetics of the root. The P supply parameters of the model that may be affected by soil pH are P_li, initial P concentration in the soil solution; b, the buffer power of P in the soil, P_si, for P_li, and D_e, effective diffusion coefficient. The effect of these changes on P uptake was predicted with the model by using measured values of the three soil supply parameters and of size, shape, and growth rate of roots and keeping the other parameters at values characteristic of maize. Values for three soil supply parameters can be calculated from measurements of P_li, P_si, and , volumetric water content. The predictions of the model closely agreed with observed uptake when form of P present at the higher pH's was accounted for. There was a significant positive correlation (r=0.94) between P_li and observed P uptake and a significant negative correlation (-0.93) between P_si and observed P uptake. The use of the model demonstrated the significance of P form and the importance of P_li in P uptake. It also showed importance of root growth rate.     

A fast genomic selection approach for large genomic data

Key message

We propose a novel computational method for genomic selection that combines identical-by-state (IBS)-based Haseman–Elston (HE) regression and best linear prediction (BLP), called HE-BLP.

Abstract

Genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) has been widely used in whole-genome prediction for breeding programs. To determine the total genetic variance of a training population, a linear mixed model (LMM) should be solved via restricted maximum likelihood (REML), whose computational complexity is the cube of the sample size. We proposed a novel computational method combining identical-by-state (IBS)-based Haseman–Elston (HE) regression and best linear prediction (BLP), called HE-BLP. With this method, the total genetic variance can be estimated by solving a simple HE linear regression, which has a computational complex of the sample size squared; therefore, it is suitable for large-scale genomic data, except those with which environmental effects need to be estimated simultaneously, because it does not allow for this estimation. In Monte Carlo simulation studies, the estimated heritability based on HE was identical to that based on REML, and the prediction accuracy via HE-BLP and traditional GBLUP was also quite similar when quantitative trait loci (QTLs) were randomly distributed along the genome and their effects followed a normal distribution. In addition, the kernel row number (KRN) trait in a maize IBM population was used to evaluate the performance of the two methods; the results showed similar prediction accuracy of breeding values despite slightly different estimated heritability via HE and REML, probably due to the underlying genetic architecture. HE-BLP can be a future genomic selection method choice for even larger sets of genomic data in certain special cases where environmental effects can be ignored. The software for HE regression and the simulation program is available online in the Genetic Analysis Repository (GEAR; https://github.com/gc5k/GEAR/wiki).

     

Correlational selection and the evolution of genomic architecture

We review and discuss the importance of correlational selection (selection for optimal character combinations) in natural populations. If two or more traits subject to multivariate selection are heritable, correlational selection builds favourable genetic correlations through the formation of linkage disequilibrium at underlying loci governing the traits. However, linkage disequilibria built up by correlational selection are expected to decay rapidly (ie, within a few generations), unless correlational selection is strong and chronic. We argue that frequency-dependent biotic interactions that have 'Red Queen dynamics' (eg, host-parasite interactions, predator-prey relationships or intraspecific arms races) often fuel chronic correlational selection, which is strong enough to maintain adaptive genetic correlations of the kind we describe. We illustrate these processes and phenomena using empirical examples from various plant and animal systems, including our own recent work on the evolutionary dynamics of a heritable throat colour polymorphism in the side-blotched lizard Uta stansburiana. In particular, male and female colour morphs of side-blotched lizards cycle on five- and two-generation (year) timescales under the force of strong frequency-dependent selection. Each morph refines the other morph in a Red Queen dynamic. Strong correlational selection gradients among life history, immunological and morphological traits shape the genetic correlations of the side-blotched lizard polymorphism. We discuss the broader evolutionary consequences of the buildup of co-adapted trait complexes within species, such as the implications for speciation processes.