Symmetric Bernoulli Distributions and Generalized Binomial Distributions

The generalized binomial distribution is defined as the distribution of a sum of symmetrically distributed Bernoulli random variates. Several two-parameter families of generalized binomial distributions have received attention in the literature, including the Polya urn model, the correlated binomial model and the latent variable model. Some properties and limitations of the three distributions are described. An algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation for two-parameter generalized binomial distributions is proposed. The Polya urn model and the latent variable model were found to provide good fits to sub-binomial data given by Parkes. An extension of the latent variable model to incorporate heterogeneous response probabilities is discussed.     

污染分布的可识别条件与判别分析

讨论污染参数模型可识别条件及判别，对污染指数分布使用通常的似然判别，建立了条件错判概率的大样本性质及小样本模拟结果．     

Evaluation of the spatial distribution of Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in South Korea combining climate and host plant distribution

Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), a global forest pest, has a potential to damage forests in South Korea, requiring an effective tool for evaluating its potential distribution. This study aimed to evaluate the spatial distribution of A. glabripennis in South Korea by simultaneously considering climate and host plants. Climatic suitability was firstly evaluated using a CLIMEX model; then, it was combined with the areal distribution of host plants using a simple mathematical formulation. We finally projected the spatial distribution of A. glabripennis onto the map of administrative districts to identify hazardous areas to watch. As a result, the developed model predicted that over 40% of areas in South Korea could be exposed to A. glabripennis damage, and most of them were located in mountainous areas with abundant host plants. In addition, climatic suitability was higher in coastal areas, which was different than a previous record of A. glabripennis occurrence, while the prediction by a comprehensive model was consistent with the record. In conclusion, the model including both climate and host plant occurrence was more reliable than the model which only included climate, and could provide useful data for determining areas for monitoring and control.     

北京市三个功能区空气微生物中值直径及粒径分布特征

空气中微生物对人类健康的危害除了与微生物的种类和浓度有关外,还与微生物粒子的大小密切相关,并且不同粒径的空气微生物对人们健康影响的作用机理不同。通过定点试验调查,运用国产安德森生物粒子取样器着重研究北京市3个功能区(文教区-中国科学院生态环境研究中心所在区域、交通干线-西直门和公园绿地-北京植物园)空气微生物的中值直径和粒径分布。结果表明,不同功能区空气微生物的粒径分布相同,空气细菌,真菌与放线菌的粒径分布各不相同。空气细菌粒径呈偏态分布,空气真菌呈对数正态分布,空气放线菌的分布特征与空气真菌相反,主要分布在>8.2μm和<2.0μm级中。不同属真菌的粒径分布也不相同,枝孢属、青霉属和曲霉属呈对数正态分布,链格孢属和无孢菌为偏态分布。空气细菌的中值直径明显大于空气真菌和放线菌。交通干线和公园绿地空气细菌和真菌粒子中值直径明显大于文教区,放线菌粒子中值直径交通干线明显高于文教区和公园绿地。空气微生物中值直径在一年各月中没有明显的变化规律。     

Comments on "Improving estimates of the basic reproductive ratio: using both the mean and the dispersal of transition times"

Comments on Heffernan, J. M., Wahl, L. M. (2006). Improving estimates of the basic reproductive ratio: Using both the mean and the dispersal of transition times. Theoretical Population Biology, 70, 135-145.     

Studies on the distribution of Na and CI in two species of lupin (Lupinus luteus and Lupinus angustifolius) differing in salt tolerance

The distribution of K, Na and CI in various tissues was studied in two species of lupin, Lupinus luteus L. (ex. Portugal) and L. angustifolius L. (cv. Kubesa) under conditions of NaCl-induced salinity stress. L. luteus appeared more tolerant to salt and less effective in excluding Na and Cl from its above-ground parts than L. angustifolius . Electron probe X-ray microanalysis of vacuolar contents of individual root cells of salt-treated L. luteus showed a decreasing gradient of Na and CI contents from the epidermis inwards, but in the inner cortical cells adjacent to the pericycle/endodermis, Na levels were again high while Cl remained low. L. luteus may be inefficient in restricting entry of Na into the shoot because of a limited capacity for Na storage in the vacuoles of root cells. In addition, this species appears to exclude Cl from the vacuoles of inner cortical root cells but not from its symplastic pathway. In the leaves of L. luteus , Cl levels were particularly high towards the lower surface (abaxial side), while Na accumulated in the adaxial side of the leaf. Likewise, different cells of the petiole appeared to place unequal demands on Na and Cl for osmotic adjustment. It is suggested that excess Na in the adaxial side of the leaf and the generally high levels of Na and CI in the foliage may explain the 50% fresh weight stimulation which was observed in L. luteus but not in L. angustifolius at 50 m M NaCl. However, the halophytic response of L. luteus is limited to moderate concentrations of NaCl since 100 m M NaCl caused severe necrosis and leaf abscission.     

林间花斑花绒寄甲幼虫种群动态及空间分布格局

花绒寄甲Dastarcus helophoroides Fairmaire以幼虫寄生松褐天牛Monochamus alternatus等天牛类害虫,掌握其幼虫时空动态和空间分布格局,有助于制定花绒寄甲的生物防治利用策略。通过对江西马尾松林花绒寄甲幼虫种群数量的调查,应用聚集度指标和回归分析等,对林间花绒寄甲幼虫种群动态、水平分布和垂直分布进行了研究。结果表明,林间花绒寄甲幼虫种群动态呈现极明显的波动性,全年数量动态有2个高峰期,其中主高峰期是4月份,占全年幼虫总数量的30%左右,是幼虫的主要寄生期,次高峰期是8月份。花绒寄甲幼虫水平空间分布为聚集分布,分布的基本成分是个体群,聚集的原因可能是花绒寄甲自身习性或与寄主天牛、环境因素共同作用所致。不同时间段,花绒寄甲幼虫的垂直分布情况不同,3-7月,花绒寄甲幼虫主要分布在枯死木的中上部,其中上段幼虫数占总数的50%以上,而在8-12月,花绒寄甲幼虫主要分布在枯死木的中段,占总数的50%左右。另外,调查显示,花绒寄甲幼虫寄生数量在释放过该天敌的松林要远高于未释放过的松林,特别是在马尾松纯林,其幼虫种群数量更高,这说明通过人工释放（江西在3月释放成虫）,能增加林间天敌花绒寄甲种群数量、降低松褐天牛种群数量,有助于松材线虫病的控制。花绒寄甲幼虫种群时空、水平、垂直三维空间分布结果可为该天敌的保护、人工释放和有效利用提供科学依据。     

Comparison and Evaluation of Three Methods of Estimation of the Johnson Sb Distribution

Thre methods of estimating the parameters of the Johnson S₆ distribution were tested by simulation. The maximum likelihood method, the method based on percentiles of a sample and the method based on moments of a transformed random variable were taken into consideration. Many sets of samples were generated differing in sizes and in the actual values of parameters, whereupon the parameters were estimated by the three methods. It was proved that if the sample is small or the skewness of the distribution is considerable, the maximum likelihood estimates can assume preposterous values. The method based on moments is recommended due to its simplicity and to the fact that the estimates, though usually biased, never assume absurd values.     

Cell growth and division: a deterministic/probabilistic model of the cell cycle

A model of the cell cycle, incorporating a deterministic cell-size monitor and a probabilistic component, is investigated. Steady-state distributions for cell size and generation time are calculated and shown to be globally asymptotically stable. These distributions are used to calculate various statistical quantities, which are then compared to known experimental data. Finally, the results are compared to distributions calculated from a Monte-Carlo simulation of the model.     

A generalizing,analytic model for 2-way cross-classifications. extensions and ramifications. part 1

A generalizing, analytic model is developed for 2-way cross-classifications with fixed class sizes The model is expressed in closed form as a simple operator formula, and is readily extended to n-way cross-classifications, and to such cases where one or more cells are vacuous or fixed. The model permits easy derivation, by means of simple differential operators, of the exact power moments, product moments, and factorial moments of the cell frequencies. From this, the moments of the exact sampling distribution of the conventional x₂-statistic can be computed, which, in turn, leads to a reappraisal of the Chi-square approximation for sparse and isotropic contingency tables. Here, the Gamma distribution is considered, and numerical results are presented that would suggest preference of the Gamma approximation over the Chi-square in such cases.     

子午岭油松林灌木层主要树种的空间分布格局和种间关联性研究

对子午岭油松林的主要物种进行实地调查,并根据林下灌木层各物种的重要值确定主要树种,然后用聚集强度指数、x2值和关联度指数对林下灌木层主要树种的空间分布格局和种间关联性进行分析.结果显示:(1)13个主要树种中除辽东栎的K值和CA值小于0外,其余种群皆表现为K>0,C>1,CA>0,I>0,m*/m>0;(2)x2检验显示,大多数树种种间关联性不显著;(3)种间关联度分析显示,树种呈正联结的共计36对,呈负联结的也有36对,有6对是关联强度低的种对.结果表明,在子午岭油松林中辽东栎与其它树种相比,具有广泛均匀分布的倾向,与其它树种之间存在强烈的竞争关系,辽东栎树种具有一定的种间竞争扩张优势.