An Estimate of the Variance of Estimators for Lead Time and Screening Benefit Time in Randomized Cancer Screening Trials

Variance estimators are derived for estimators of the average lead time and average benefit time due to screening in a randomized screening trial via influence functions. The influence functions demonstrate that these estimators are asymptotically equivalent to the mean difference, between the study and control case groups, in the appropriate survival times. For estimating benefit time, the survival time is measured since start of study; for estimating lead time, the survival time is measured since time of diagnosis. Asymptotic variances of these estimators can be calculated in a straightforward manner from the influence functions, and these variances can be estimated from actual trial data. The performance of the variance estimators is assessed via a simulated screening trial. The situation involving censored data is also discussed.     

Impact of Risk Factors on Different Interval Cancer Subtypes in a Population-Based Breast Cancer Screening Programme

Background

Interval cancers are primary breast cancers diagnosed in women after a negative screening test and before the next screening invitation. Our aim was to evaluate risk factors for interval cancer and their subtypes and to compare the risk factors identified with those associated with incident screen-detected cancers.

Methods

We analyzed data from 645,764 women participating in the Spanish breast cancer screening program from 2000–2006 and followed-up until 2009. A total of 5,309 screen-detected and 1,653 interval cancers were diagnosed. Among the latter, 1,012 could be classified on the basis of findings in screening and diagnostic mammograms, consisting of 489 true interval cancers (48.2%), 235 false-negatives (23.2%), 172 minimal-signs (17.2%) and 114 occult tumors (11.3%). Information on the screening protocol and women''s characteristics were obtained from the screening program registry. Cause-specific Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of risks factors for interval cancer and incident screen-detected cancer. A multinomial regression model, using screen-detected tumors as a reference group, was used to assess the effect of breast density and other factors on the occurrence of interval cancer subtypes.

Results

A previous false-positive was the main risk factor for interval cancer (HR = 2.71, 95%CI: 2.28–3.23); this risk was higher for false-negatives (HR = 8.79, 95%CI: 6.24–12.40) than for true interval cancer (HR = 2.26, 95%CI: 1.59–3.21). A family history of breast cancer was associated with true intervals (HR = 2.11, 95%CI: 1.60–2.78), previous benign biopsy with a false-negatives (HR = 1.83, 95%CI: 1.23–2.71). High breast density was mainly associated with occult tumors (RRR = 4.92, 95%CI: 2.58–9.38), followed by true intervals (RRR = 1.67, 95%CI: 1.18–2.36) and false-negatives (RRR = 1.58, 95%CI: 1.00–2.49).

Conclusion

The role of women''s characteristics differs among interval cancer subtypes. This information could be useful to improve effectiveness of breast cancer screening programmes and to better classify subgroups of women with different risks of developing cancer.     

Vitamin D Supplementation and Breast Cancer Prevention: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Clinical Trials

In recent years, the scientific evidence linking vitamin D status or supplementation to breast cancer has grown notably. To investigate the role of vitamin D supplementation on breast cancer incidence, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing vitamin D with placebo or no treatment. We used OVID to search MEDLINE (R), EMBASE and CENTRAL until April 2012. We screened the reference lists of included studies and used the “Related Article” feature in PubMed to identify additional articles. No language restrictions were applied. Two reviewers independently extracted data on methodological quality, participants, intervention, comparison and outcomes. Risk Ratios and 95% Confident Intervals for breast cancer were pooled using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I² test. In sensitivity analysis, we assessed the impact of vitamin D dosage and mode of administration on treatment effects. Only two randomized controlled trials fulfilled the pre-set inclusion criteria. The pooled analysis included 5372 postmenopausal women. Overall, Risk Ratios and 95% Confident Intervals were 1.11 and 0.74–1.68. We found no evidence of heterogeneity. Neither vitamin D dosage nor mode of administration significantly affected breast cancer risk. However, treatment efficacy was somewhat greater when vitamin D was administered at the highest dosage and in combination with calcium (Risk Ratio 0.58, 95% Confident Interval 0.23–1.47 and Risk Ratio 0.93, 95% Confident Interval 0.54–1.60, respectively). In conclusions, vitamin D use seems not to be associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer development in postmenopausal women. However, the available evidence is still limited and inadequate to draw firm conclusions. Study protocol code: FARM8L2B5L.     

Statin Use and Risk of Lung Cancer: a Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies and Randomized Controlled Trials

Clinical studies have shown that statin use may alter the risk of lung cancer. However, these studies yielded different results. To quantify the association between statin use and risk of lung cancer, we performed a detailed meta-analysis. A literature search was carried out using MEDLINE, EMBASE and COCHRANE database between January 1966 and November 2012. Before meta-analysis, between-study heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed using adequate statistical tests. Fixed-effect and random-effect models were used to calculate the pooled relative risks (RR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Subgroup analyses, sensitivity analysis and cumulative meta-analysis were also performed. A total of 20 (five randomized controlled trials, eight cohorts, and seven case–control) studies contributed to the analysis. Pooled results indicated a non-significant decrease of total lung cancer risk among all statin users (RR = 0.89, 95% CI [0.78, 1.02]). Further, long-term statin use did not significantly decrease the risk of total lung cancer (RR = 0.80, 95% CI [0.39 , 1.64]). In our subgroup analyses, the results were not substantially affected by study design, participant ethnicity, or confounder adjustment. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of results. The findings of this meta-analysis suggested that there was no significant association between statin use and risk of lung cancer. More studies, especially randomized controlled trials and high quality cohort studies are warranted to confirm this association.     

Use of Fibrates and Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 17 Long-Term Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trials

Background

Fibrates comprise a class of well-established antilipidemic agents that significantly reduce cardiovascular events. Given the concerns of cancer with fibrate therapy, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the effects of fibrates on cancer outcomes.

Methods

We systematically searched Medline, Scopus, SCI Expanded, and the Cochrane Library for studies published up to 2012. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated a fibrate therapy compared with placebo, had a minimum duration of two years, and reported data on the incidence of and/or deaths from cancer during the trial. Reviews of each study were performed and the relative data were abstracted. Pooled relative risk estimates (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the inverse variance weighted approach. Subgroup, sensitivity and meta-regression analyses were also conducted.

Results

Seventeen RCTs, involving 44,929 participants with an average follow-up of 5.2 years, contributed to the analysis. The degree of variability between trials was consistent with what would be expected to occur by chance alone. The quantitative synthesis of data retrieved from the RCTs was not indicative of a fibrate effect on cancer incidence (780 [fibrate] vs 814 [control]; RR = 1.02, 95% CI 0.92–1.12) or cancer death (385 [fibrate] vs 377 [control]; RR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.92–1.22). When the analysis was restricted to major RCTs, the results did not substantially change. Similarly, we found no evidence of differential effects by length of follow-up or type of fibrate. Insignificant results were also obtained for the role of fibrates in cancers of the respiratory tract, breast, colon, gastrointestinal tract, prostate, genitourinary tract, or in melanoma.

Conclusion

Our findings demonstrate that fibrates have a neutral effect on cancer outcomes. However, it is important to continue monitoring their long-term safety profiles.     

Effect of Flexible Sigmoidoscopy-Based Screening on Incidence and Mortality of Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Background

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have yielded varying estimates of the benefit of flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). Our objective was to more precisely estimate the effect of FS-based screening on the incidence and mortality of CRC by performing a meta-analysis of published RCTs.

Methods and Findings

Medline and Embase databases were searched for eligible articles published between 1966 and 28 May 2012. After screening 3,319 citations and 29 potentially relevant articles, two reviewers identified five RCTs evaluating the effect of FS screening on the incidence and mortality of CRC. The reviewers independently extracted relevant data; discrepancies were resolved by consensus. The quality of included studies was assessed using criteria set out by the Evidence-Based Gastroenterology Steering Group. Random effects meta-analysis was performed.The five RCTs meeting eligibility criteria were determined to be of high methodologic quality and enrolled 416,159 total subjects. Four European studies compared FS to no screening and one study from the United States compared FS to usual care. By intention to treat analysis, FS-based screening was associated with an 18% relative risk reduction in the incidence of CRC (0.82, 95% CI 0.73–0.91, p<0.001, number needed to screen [NNS] to prevent one case of CRC = 361), a 33% reduction in the incidence of left-sided CRC (RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.59–0.76, p<0.001, NNS = 332), and a 28% reduction in the mortality of CRC (relative risk [RR] 0.72, 95% CI 0.65–0.80, p<0.001, NNS = 850). The efficacy estimate, the amount of benefit for those who actually adhered to the recommended treatment, suggested that FS screening reduced CRC incidence by 32% (p<0.001), and CRC-related mortality by 50% (p<0.001).Limitations of this meta-analysis include heterogeneity in the design of the included trials, absence of studies from Africa, Asia, or South America, and lack of studies comparing FS with colonoscopy or stool-based testing.

Conclusions

This meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials demonstrates that FS-based screening significantly reduces the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in average-risk patients. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Clinical Efficacy of Including Capecitabine in Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Breast Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Background

Capecitabine has proven effective as a chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer. Though several Phase II/III studies of capecitabine as neoadjuvant chemotherapy have been conducted, the results still remain inconsistent. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to obtain more precise understanding of the role of capecitabine in neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer patients.

Methods

The electronic database PubMed and online abstracts from ASCO and SABCS were searched to identify randomized clinical trials comparing neoadjuvant chemotherapy with or without capecitabine in early/operable breast cancer patients without distant metastasis. Risk ratios were used to estimate the association between capecitabine in neoadjuvant chemotherapy and various efficacy outcomes. Fixed- or random-effect models were adopted to pool data in RevMan 5.1.

Results

Five studies were included in the meta-analysis. Neoadjuvant use of capecitabine with anthracycline and/or taxane based therapy was not associated with significant improvement in clinical outcomes including: pathologic complete response in breast (pCR; RR = 1.10, 95% CI 0.87–1.40, p = 0.43), pCR in breast tumor and nodes (tnpCR RR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.83–1.18, p = 0.90), overall response rate (ORR; RR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.94–1.07, p = 0.93), or breast-conserving surgery (BCS; RR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.93–1.04, p = 0.49).

Conclusions

Neoadjuvant treatment of breast cancer involving capecitabine did not significantly improve pCR, tnpCR, BCS or ORR. Thus adding capecitabine to neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimes is unlikely to improve outcomes in breast cancer patients without distant metastasis. Further research is required to establish the condition that capecitabine may be useful in breast cancer neoadjuvant chemotherapy.     

MicroRNA Related Polymorphisms and Breast Cancer Risk

Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR) 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–0.96), rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99), rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94–0.99), rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01–1.05) located in the 3′ UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects.     

Genetically Predicted Body Mass Index and Breast Cancer Risk: Mendelian Randomization Analyses of Data from 145,000 Women of European Descent

BackgroundObservational epidemiological studies have shown that high body mass index (BMI) is associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer in premenopausal women but an increased risk in postmenopausal women. It is unclear whether this association is mediated through shared genetic or environmental factors.MethodsWe applied Mendelian randomization to evaluate the association between BMI and risk of breast cancer occurrence using data from two large breast cancer consortia. We created a weighted BMI genetic score comprising 84 BMI-associated genetic variants to predicted BMI. We evaluated genetically predicted BMI in association with breast cancer risk using individual-level data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) (cases  =  46,325, controls  =  42,482). We further evaluated the association between genetically predicted BMI and breast cancer risk using summary statistics from 16,003 cases and 41,335 controls from the Discovery, Biology, and Risk of Inherited Variants in Breast Cancer (DRIVE) Project. Because most studies measured BMI after cancer diagnosis, we could not conduct a parallel analysis to adequately evaluate the association of measured BMI with breast cancer risk prospectively.ResultsIn the BCAC data, genetically predicted BMI was found to be inversely associated with breast cancer risk (odds ratio [OR]  =  0.65 per 5 kg/m² increase, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56–0.75, p = 3.32 × 10⁻¹⁰). The associations were similar for both premenopausal (OR   =   0.44, 95% CI:0.31–0.62, p  =  9.91 × 10⁻⁸) and postmenopausal breast cancer (OR  =  0.57, 95% CI: 0.46–0.71, p  =  1.88 × 10⁻⁸). This association was replicated in the data from the DRIVE consortium (OR  =  0.72, 95% CI: 0.60–0.84, p   =   1.64 × 10⁻⁷). Single marker analyses identified 17 of the 84 BMI-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in association with breast cancer risk at p < 0.05; for 16 of them, the allele associated with elevated BMI was associated with reduced breast cancer risk.ConclusionsBMI predicted by genome-wide association studies (GWAS)-identified variants is inversely associated with the risk of both pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer. The reduced risk of postmenopausal breast cancer associated with genetically predicted BMI observed in this study differs from the positive association reported from studies using measured adult BMI. Understanding the reasons for this discrepancy may reveal insights into the complex relationship of genetic determinants of body weight in the etiology of breast cancer.     

Mammographic Breast Density and Common Genetic Variants in Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

Introduction

Known prediction models for breast cancer can potentially by improved by the addition of mammographic density and common genetic variants identified in genome-wide associations studies known to be associated with risk of the disease. We evaluated the benefit of including mammographic density and the cumulative effect of genetic variants in breast cancer risk prediction among women in a Singapore population.

Methods

We estimated the risk of breast cancer using a prospective cohort of 24,161 women aged 50 to 64 from Singapore with available mammograms and known risk factors for breast cancer who were recruited between 1994 and 1997. We measured mammographic density using the medio-lateral oblique views of both breasts. Each woman’s genotype for 75 SNPs was simulated based on the genotype frequency obtained from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium data and the cumulative effect was summarized by a genetic risk score (GRS). Any improvement in the performance of our proposed prediction model versus one containing only variables from the Gail model was assessed by changes in receiver-operating characteristic and predictive values.

Results

During 17 years of follow-up, 680 breast cancer cases were diagnosed. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 1.60 (1.22–2.10), 2.20 (1.65–2.92), 2.33 (1.71–3.20), 2.12 (1.43–3.14), and 3.27 (2.24–4.76) for the corresponding mammographic density categories: 11-20cm², 21-30cm², 31-40cm², 41-50cm², 51-60cm², and 1.10 (1.03–1.16) for GRS. At the predicted absolute 10-year risk thresholds of 2.5% and 3.0%, a model with mammographic density and GRS could correctly identify 0.9% and 0.5% more women who would develop the disease compared to a model using only the Gail variables, respectively.

Conclusion

Mammographic density and common genetic variants can improve the discriminatory power of an established breast cancer risk prediction model among females in Singapore.     

Mediterranean Dietary Pattern and Risk of Breast Cancer

Background

A Mediterranean diet has a recognized beneficial effect on health and longevity, with a protective influence on several cancers. However, its association with breast cancer risk remains unclear.

Objective

We aimed to investigate whether adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern influences breast cancer risk.

Design

The Swedish Women’s Lifestyle and Health cohort study includes 49,258 women aged 30 to 49 years at recruitment in 1991–1992. Consumption of foods and beverages was measured at enrollment using a food frequency questionnaire. A Mediterranean diet score was constructed based on the consumption of alcohol, vegetables, fruits, legumes, cereals, fish, the ratio of unsaturated to saturated fat, and dairy and meat products. Relative risks (RR) for breast cancer and specific tumor characteristics (invasiveness, histological type, estrogen/progesterone receptor status, malignancy grade and stage) associated with this score were estimated using Cox regression controlling for potential confounders.

Results

1,278 incident breast cancers were diagnosed. Adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern was not statistically significantly associated with reduced risk of breast cancer overall, or with specific breast tumor characteristics. A RR (95% confidence interval) for breast cancer associated with a two-point increment in the Mediterranean diet score was 1.08 (1.00–1.15) in all women, and 1.10 (1.01–1.21) and 1.02 (0.91–1.15) in premenopausal and postmenopausal women, respectively. When alcohol was excluded from the Mediterranean diet score, results became not statistically significant.

Conclusions

Adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern did not decrease breast cancer risk in this cohort of relatively young women.     

Fas 相关死亡结构域蛋白在乳腺癌中表达的临床病理研究

目的:探讨Fas相关死亡结构域蛋白(Fas-associated death domain protein,FADD)在乳腺癌中表达的临床病理学意义。方法:收集乳腺癌病例及相应的临床资料包括随访资料,应用免疫组织化学技术检测乳腺良性病变,有/无淋巴结转移的乳腺癌及配对淋巴结转移灶中FADD的表达,观察分析FADD表达与乳腺癌患者年龄、肿块大小、临床分期、组织学类型和分级、雌孕激素受体水平等临床病理指标间的关系。结果:免疫组化检测结果显示良性乳腺病变组中FADD的阳性表达率(85.1%,40/47)与无淋巴结转移的乳腺癌组(45.8%,38/83),伴有淋巴结转移的乳腺癌组(67.3%72/107)和淋巴结转移灶(45.8%,49/107)组织中FADD阳性表率均有显著性差异(P值分别0.001,=0.022和0.001);此外,伴有淋巴结转移的乳腺癌组中FADD阳性表达率也均与其它三组中FADD阳性表达率之间具有显著性差异(P值分别为0.003,0.001和0.022)。FADD与患者的确诊年龄(P=0.049)和淋巴结转移有显著性相关(P=0.003),与肿瘤大小、临床分期、组织学类型、组织学分级、雌孕激素受体及cerb B-2的表达情况和月经史无明显相关性(P0.05)。生存分析显示FADD阳性表达的患者较FADD阴性患者的生存期更短。结论:FADD与乳腺癌淋巴结转移和预后有关。     

Mobile Unit for Screening for Cervical and Breast Cancer

In 12 months'' use of a mobile unit for cervical and breast cancer screening in Gloucestershire 3,211 women attended at an average of five sessions a week. Clinic sessions were organized and the running costs of the service met by a voluntary organization. The keeping of records, provision of laboratory facilities, and the follow-up of patients were carried out in close cooperation with the county health department.     

Korean Risk Assessment Model for Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

Purpose

We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk.

Methods

Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail''s equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort.

Results

The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p = 0.880; NCC, p = 0.878). The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the risk of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women.