Assessment of Competition between Fisheries and Steller Sea Lions in Alaska Based on Estimated Prey Biomass,Fisheries Removals and Predator Foraging Behaviour

A leading hypothesis to explain the dramatic decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in western Alaska during the latter part of the 20th century is a change in prey availability due to commercial fisheries. We tested this hypothesis by exploring the relationships between sea lion population trends, fishery catches, and the prey biomass accessible to sea lions around 33 rookeries between 2000 and 2008. We focused on three commercially important species that have dominated the sea lion diet during the population decline: walleye pollock, Pacific cod and Atka mackerel. We estimated available prey biomass by removing fishery catches from predicted prey biomass distributions in the Aleutian Islands, Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska; and modelled the likelihood of sea lions foraging at different distances from rookeries (accessibility) using satellite telemetry locations of tracked animals. We combined this accessibility model with the prey distributions to estimate the prey biomass accessible to sea lions by rookery. For each rookery, we compared sea lion population change to accessible prey biomass. Of 304 comparisons, we found 3 statistically significant relationships, all suggesting that sea lion populations increased with increasing prey accessibility. Given that the majority of comparisons showed no significant effect, it seems unlikely that the availability of pollock, cod or Atka mackerel was limiting sea lion populations in the 2000s.     

Characterization of eight microsatellite loci in Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus)

Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) are listed as an endangered species in western Alaska and have exhibited a significant population decline throughout their range. Eight microsatellite loci were isolated from genomic DNA libraries. In addition, all these markers were found to be variable in nine individuals of the California sea lion (Zalophus californicus). This panel of markers was developed to analyse population structure in Steller sea lions throughout their range.     

The population decline of the New Zealand sea lion Phocarctos hookeri: a review of possible causes

• 1 The New Zealand (NZ) sea lion Phocarctos hookeri is NZ's only endemic pinniped and is listed as ‘nationally critical’. The species breeds in the NZ sub‐Antarctic: 71% of the population at the Auckland Islands (2010 pup production: 1814 ± 39) and the remaining 29% on Campbell Island (726 pups in 2010).
• 2 Pup production at the Auckland Islands has declined by 40% since 1998 (1998: 3021 pups produced): only 1501 pups were born in 2009. This decline is directly linked to philopatric females not returning to breeding areas. While the Auckland Island population has declined, the Campbell Island population appears to be increasing slowly.
• 3 Potential reasons for the decline in the Auckland Island population, but not in the Campbell Island population, include non‐anthropogenic factors: (i) disease epizootics, (ii) predation, (iii) permanent dispersal or migration, (iv) environmental change; and anthropogenic impacts: (v) population ‘overshoot’, (vi) genetic effects, (vii) effects of contaminants, (viii) indirect effects of fisheries (i.e. resource competition) and (ix) direct effects of fisheries (i.e. by‐catch deaths). Of the nine potential reasons examined here, six can be discounted (ii–vii). Bacterial epizootics (i) occur in the NZ sea lion population, but their impact has predominantly increased pup mortality, which is unlikely to cause the severe decline observed, as pup mortality throughout the species is naturally high and variable.
• 4 The most plausible hypotheses, based on available evidence, are that the observed decline, in particular, the decreasing number of breeding females in the Auckland Island population, is caused by (viii) fisheries‐induced resource competition and (ix) fisheries‐related by‐catch. By‐catch is the main known anthropogenic cause of mortality in the species. Competition with fisheries resulting in resource competition, nutrient stress and decreased reproductive ability in NZ sea lions should be a priority area for future research.

     

Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus and nutritional stress: evidence from captive studies

• 1 Numbers of Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus in the North Pacific have declined. According to the nutritional stress hypothesis, this decline is due to reduced food availability. Data from studies conducted on pinnipeds in the laboratory are used here to test if the nutritional stress hypothesis can explain the decline of Steller sea lions.
• 2 Overall, there is strong evidence for biologically meaningful differences in the nutritional quality of major prey species. Steller sea lions can partly compensate for low‐quality prey by increasing their food consumption.
• 3 There appear to be no detrimental effects of low‐lipid prey on sea lion growth or body composition when sea lions can consume sufficient quantities of prey. However, the ability to increase consumption is physiologically limited, particularly in young animals. Overall, it is more difficult to maintain energy intake on a diet of low‐quality prey than on a normal diet.
• 4 Under conditions of inadequate food intake (either due to decreased prey availability or quality, or increased energy requirements) the overall impacts of nutritional stress are complex, and are dependent upon season, prey quality, age and the duration and intensity of the nutritional stress event.
• 5 Studies on pinnipeds in the laboratory have been instrumental in identifying the conditions under which changes in sea lion prey can result in nutritional stress and the nature of the physiological impacts of nutritional stress events.

     

A CRITICAL REVIEW OF THE REGIME SHIFT-"JUNK FOOD"-NUTRITIONAL STRESS HYPOTHESIS FOR THE DECLINE OF THE WESTERN STOCK OF STELLER SEA LION

Steller sea lions ( Eumetopias jubatus ) in the central and western Gulf of Alaska, Aleutian Islands, and Bering Sea have declined by 80% in the last 30 yr. One hypothesis for the decline in this western Steller sea lion population is that a climate regime shift in 1976–1977 changed the species composition of the fish community and reduced the nutritional quality (energy density) of the sea lion prey field. This in turn led to nutritional stress and reduced individual fitness, survival, and reproduction of sea lions. Implications of this regime shift-"junk food" hypothesis are that (1) the recruitment and abundance of supposed high quality species ( e.g. , Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi ) decreased while those of supposed low quality ( e.g. , species in the family Gadidae) increased following the regime shift, (2) Steller sea lion diets shifted in response to this change in fish community structure, and (3) a diet composed principally of gadids ( e.g. , walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma ) is detrimental to sea lion fitness and survival. We examine data relating to each of these implications and find little support for the hypothesis that increases in the availability and consumption of gadids following the regime shift are primarily responsible for the decline of the western population of Steller sea lion.     

Mercury Concentrations in Hair from Neonatal and Juvenile Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus): Implications Based on Age and Region in this Northern Pacific Marine Sentinel Piscivore

Mercury is a global contaminant of concern for the fetus and the neonate of piscivores. Methylmercury, produced within marine ecosystems, is of particular concern as a readily absorbed neurotoxicant transported across the blood brain barrier and transplacentally. In the North Pacific Ocean, Steller sea lions are broadly distributed apex predators and, as such, integrate complex food webs and the associated exposure and possible adverse effects of toxic and infectious agents. Hair, including lanugo, was examined using regional and age groupings to assess mercury concentrations in young Alaskan Steller sea lions. The highest concentrations of mercury occurred in the youngest animals, likely via in utero exposure. Based on the adverse developmental outcomes of methylmercury toxicity this specific cohort is of concern. Regionally, higher concentrations of mercury were observed in the endangered western population of Steller sea lions and mirrored patterns observed in human biomonitoring studies of Alaskan coastal communities. These data have broader implications with respect to human and ecosystem health as Steller sea lions rely on similar prey species and foraging areas as those targeted by commercial fisheries and subsistence users and are therefore valuable sentinels of marine ecosystem health.     

Impact of changing diet regimes on Steller sea lion body condition

A leading theory for the cause of the decline of Steller sea lions is nutritional stress, which led to chronic high juvenile mortality and possibly episodic adult mortality. Nutritional stress may have resulted from either poor quality or low abundance of prey. The objective of this study was to determine whether we could predict shifts in body condition (i.e., body mass or body fat content) over different seasons associated with a change in diet (i.e., toward lower quality prey). Captive Steller sea lions (n= 3) were fed three different diet regimes, where Diet 1 approximated the diet in the Kodiak area in the 1970s prior to the documented decline in that area, Diet 2 approximated the species composition in the Kodiak area after the decline had begun, and Diet 3 approximated the diet in southeast Alaska where the Steller sea lion population has been increasing for over 25 yr. All the animals used in this study were still growing and gained mass regardless of diet. Body fat (%) varied between 13% and 28%, but was not consistently high or low for any diet regime or season. Mean intake (in kg) of Diet 2 was significantly greater for all sea lions during all seasons. All animals did, however, tend to gain less body mass on Diets 2 and 3, as well as during the breeding and postbreeding seasons. They also tended to gain more mass during the winter and on Diet 1, though these differences were not statistically significant. Thus, changing seasonal physiology of Steller sea lions appears to have more impact on body condition than quality of prey, provided sufficient quantity of prey is available. Steller sea lions are opportunistic predators and are evidently able to thrive on a variety of prey. Our results indicate that Steller sea lions are capable of compensating for prey of low quality.     

No Evidence of Metabolic Depression in Western Alaskan Juvenile Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus)

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) populations have undergone precipitous declines through their western Alaskan range over the last four decades with the leading hypothesis to explain this decline centering around changing prey quality, quantity, or availability for this species (i.e., nutritional stress hypothesis). Under chronic conditions of reduced food intake sea lions would conserve energy by limiting energy expenditures through lowering of metabolic rate known as metabolic depression. To examine the potential for nutritional stress, resting metabolic rate (RMR) and body composition were measured in free-ranging juvenile Steller sea lions (N = 91) at three distinct geographical locations (Southeast Alaska, Prince William Sound, Central Aleutian Islands) using open-flow respirometry and deuterium isotope dilution, respectively. Average sea lion RMR ranged from 6.7 to 36.2 MJ d⁻¹ and was influenced by body mass, total body lipid, and to a lesser extent, ambient air temperature and age. Sea lion pups captured in the Aleutian Islands (region of decline) had significantly greater body mass and total body lipid stores when compared to pups from Prince William Sound (region of decline) and Southeast Alaska (stable region). Along with evidence of robust body condition in Aleutian Island pups, no definitive differences were detected in RMR between sea lions sampled between eastern and western populations that could not be accounted for by higher percent total body lipid content, suggesting that that at the time of this study, Steller sea lions were not experiencing metabolic depression in the locations studied.     

Infectious disease and the decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska, USA: insights from serologic data

Serologic data were examined to determine whether infectious disease may have played a role in the decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands, USA. Available published data, unpublished data, and recent collections (1997-2000) were compared and reviewed. Data were stratified by geography to compare the declining western Alaskan population in the Aleutian Islands through eastern Prince William Sound to the increasing population in southeastern Alaska. Prevalences of antibodies from the 1970s to the early 1990s were noted for Leptospira interrogans, Chlamydophila psittaci, Brucella spp., phocid herpesvirus-1, and calciviruses. Serum samples collected from 1997-2000 were tested for antibodies to these agents as well as to marine mammal morbilliviruses, canine parvovirus, and canine adenovirus-1 and -2. Conclusions could not be drawn about changes in antibody prevalence to these agents during the decline of Steller sea lions, however, because data were incomplete or not comparable as a result of inconsistencies in testing techniques. Despite these shortcomings, results provided no convincing evidence of significant exposure of Steller sea lions to morbilliviruses, Brucella spp., canine parvovirus, or L. interrogans. Steller sea lions have been exposed to phocid herpesviruses, caliciviruses, canine adenovirus, and C. psittaci or to cross-reactive organisms in regions of both increasing and decreasing sea lion abundance. Based on similar antibody prevalence estimates from the increasing and decreasing populations, these agents are unlikely to have been the primary cause of the population decline. They may have contributed to the decline or impeded population recovery, however, because of undetected mortality and morbidity or reductions of fecundity and body condition in animals under other stresses. Systematic monitoring for disease agents and their effects is needed to determine whether infectious disease currently plays a role in the decline and lack of recovery of Steller sea lions.     

STELLER SEA LION STATUS AND TREND IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA: 1979–1997

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers in the United States declined by about 75% over the past 20+ yr. They are classified, under the U. S. Endangered Species Act, as “threatened” in the eastern portion of their range and as “endangered” in the western portion. We analyzed trends in numbers of pup and non-pup Steller sea lions counted in Southeast Alaska between 1979 and 1997. Sea lion numbers, based on counts of pups on rookeries, increased by an average of 5.9% per year between 1979 and 1997. However, numbers of pups increased at a much slower rate (+ 1.7% per year) between 1989 and 1997. For counts of non-pup Steller sea lions we used models that controlled for the effects of date, time, and tide at the time of the survey to analyze trends. This technique reduced bias and increased precision of the resulting trend estimates. Numbers of sea lions were stable (+0.5%) between 1989 and 1996, based on counts of non-pups. We estimated the Southeast Alaska breeding population of Steller sea lions at about 19,000 animals of all ages in 1997, a level that is probably near the highest in recorded history.     

Steller sea lion spatial‐use patterns derived from a Bayesian model of opportunistic observations

Despite acquisition of a substantial catalog of telemetry data from Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) over the past two decades, scientists still lack comprehensive regionally explicit knowledge about Steller sea lion habitat use. The Platforms of Opportunity data contain records of Steller sea lion sightings throughout the species’ entire range and have potential to fill gaps in knowledge about their spatial use; however, the data have not previously been used because effort (e.g., time spent surveying or area sampled) was not recorded when sightings were obtained. For this study a novel approach was used to overcome the lack of effort data through development of an effort index and a Bayesian negative binomial model. The model quantified Steller sea lion encounter rates and associated uncertainty within 15 × 15 km² grid cells across the species’ entire range. Year‐round, as well as breeding and nonbreeding season encounter rates were estimated. The results of this analysis identify several previously undocumented areas of high use by Steller sea lions, indicate that only 37% of Steller sea lion high‐use areas fall within designated critical habitat, and demonstrate that use of depth and distance from shore as indicators of Steller sea lion habitat is contraindicated.     

Population viability analysis of New Zealand sea lions, Auckland Islands, New Zealand’s sub-Antarctics: assessing relative impacts and uncertainty

A common issue faced in wildlife management is how to assess the uncertainty of potential impacts on the viability of a species or population. The pup production of New Zealand (NZ) sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri) has declined 50% in the last 12?years at their main breeding area, the Auckland Islands. The two major known atypical impacts on NZ sea lions are as follows: (1) the direct mortality as bycatch of trawling and (2) bacterial epizootics, which can affect reproduction and mortality. Both of these impacts include high levels of uncertainty, with fisheries data being variable due to percentage observer coverage and the effect of sea lion exclusion devises, while the timing and severity of bacterial epizootics are not predictable. In this paper, an age-structured model of the NZ sea lion population at the Auckland Islands was built to examine the predicted effects of fisheries mortality and catastrophes (bacterial epizootics), both separately and then combined, on population viability over a 100-year period using the VORTEX population viability analysis programme. These models are then compared against 15?years of empirical field data to determine the actual level of impacts being observed. Model results indicate that although naturally occurring epizootics reduce the growth rate of the population, it does not cause a decline in the Auckland Island population. However, sustained fisheries bycatch at current estimated levels, particularly considering its potential impact on adult female survival, could result in a population decline and possible functional extinction over the modelled time period.     

The role of Steller sea lions in a large population decline of harbor seals

We provide the first direct evidence that Steller sea lions will prey on harbor seals. Direct observations of predation on marine mammals at sea are rare, but when observed rates of predation are extrapolated, predation mortality may be found to be significant. From 1992 to 2002, harbor seals in Glacier Bay declined steeply, from 6,200 to 2,500 (∼65%). After documenting that Steller sea lions were preying on seals in Glacier Bay, we investigated increased predation by sea lions as a potential explanation for the large decline. In five independent data sets spanning 21–25 yr and including 14,308 d of observations, 13 predation events were recorded. We conducted a fine-scale analysis for an intensively studied haul-out (Spider Island) and a broader analysis of all of Glacier Bay. At Spider Island, estimated predation by sea lions increased and could account for the entirety of annual pup production in 5 of 8 yr since 1995. The predation rate, however, was not proportional to the number of predators. Predation by Steller sea lions is a new source of mortality that contributed to the seal declines; however, life history modeling indicates that it is unlikely that sea lion predation is the sole factor responsible for the large declines.     

The decline of Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus in Alaska: a review of the nutritional stress hypothesis

1. The decline of Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus in the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands between the late 1970s and 1990s may have been related to reduced availability of suitable prey. Many studies have shown that pinnipeds and other mammals suffering from nutritional stress typically exhibit reduced body size, reduced productivity, high mortality of pups and juveniles, altered blood chemistry and specific behavioural modifications. 2. Morphometric measurements of Steller sea lions through the 1970s and 1980s in Alaska indicate reduced body size. Reduced numbers of pups born and an apparent increase in juvenile mortality rates also appear to be nutritionally based. Blood chemistry analyses have further shown that Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands area exhibited signs of an acute phase reaction, or immune reaction, in response to unidentified physical and/or environmental stress. Behavioural studies during the 1990s have not noted any changes that are indicative of an overall shortage in the quantity of prey available to lactating female sea lions. 3. The data collected in Alaska are consistent with the hypothesis that Steller sea lions in the declining regions were nutritionally compromised because of the relative quality of prey available to them (chronic nutritional stress), rather than because of the overall quantity of fish per se (acute nutritional stress). This is further supported by captive studies that indicate the overall quality of prey that has been available to Steller sea lions in the declining population could compromise the health of Steller sea lions and hinder their recovery.     

Population growth and colonization of Steller sea lions in the Glacier Bay region of southeastern Alaska: 1970s–2009

We estimated trends in numbers of Steller sea lions in the Glacier Bay region of the eastern population from the 1970s to 2009. We documented the colonization of several new haul‐outs and the transition of one haul‐out (Graves Rocks) to a rookery, assessed seasonal patterns in distribution, and compared counts from different observation platforms. Sea lions increased in the region by 8.2%/yr (95%CI = 6.4%–10.0%), with the most growth at South Marble Island in Glacier Bay (16.6%/yr, 1991–2009) and rapid growth in Cross Sound. Seasonal patterns in the distribution of sea lions were likely influenced by new breeding opportunities and the seasonal availability of prey. Factors that likely contributed to the exceptional growth include availability of new habitat following deglaciation, immigration, redistribution, decreases in mortality, and ecosystem‐level changes. The rapid increase in sea lion numbers in this region is of particular interest in light of dramatic declines in the western population and evidence that Steller sea lions from both the eastern and western populations colonized the Graves Rocks rookery. The colonization and rookery development in this dynamic area may signal the reversal of the reproductive isolation of the two populations.     

Serum Chemistry Reference Ranges for Steller Sea Lion (Eumetopias jubatus) Pups from Alaska: Stock Differentiation and Comparisons Within a North Pacific Sentinel Species

Blood chemistry and hematologic reference ranges are useful for population health assessment and establishing a baseline for future comparisons in the event of ecosystem changes due to natural or anthropogenic factors. The objectives of this study were to determine if there was any population spatial structure for blood variables of Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus), an established sentinel species, and to report reference ranges for appropriate populations using standardized analyses. In addition to comparing reference ranges between populations with contrasting abundance trends, data were examined for evidence of disease or nutritional stress. From 1998 to 2011, blood samples were collected from 1,231 pups captured on 37 rookeries across their Alaskan range. Reference ranges are reported separately for the western and eastern distinct population segments (DPS) of Steller sea lion after cluster analysis and discriminant function analysis (DFA) supported underlying stock structure. Variables with greater loading scores for the DFA (creatinine, total protein, calcium, albumin, cholesterol, and alkaline phosphatase) also were greater for sea lions from the endangered western DPS, supporting previous studies that indicated pup condition in the west was not compromised during the first month postpartum. Differences between population segments were likely a result of ecological, physiological, or age related differences.     

Interactions between killer whales (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Orcinus orca</Emphasis>) and Steller sea lions (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Eumetopias jubatus</Emphasis>) in the vicinity of Brat Chirpoev Island,Kuril Islands

The behaviors of breeding Steller sea lions in response to encounters with killer whales near the shore were observed on Brat Chirpoev Island, Kuril Islands between May and July 2002–2007. Approaches by killer whales and sea lion behavior was observed visually and recorded. Killer whales approached the rookery 104 times during the entire period of observations (289 days). In most cases (n = 95), beached sea lions did not show any apparent reactions to the presence of killer whales, and there were no observed interactions. Sea lions showed agitation during nine of the approaches; five of these events were considered to be predation attempts. The killer whales attacked the sea lions three times, however all the attacks were unsuccessful. We recorded two different types of responses towards the killer whales: (1) beaching on the shore (three times) and (2) mass exodus from the rookery with subsequent formation of a tight, actively swimming and vocalizing group (six times). The latter is the first recorded observation of this behavior for Steller sea lions. The observation suggests a low degree of interactions between these two species near the studied rookery. Despite the numerous observations of killer whales near the rookery, there were no observations of direct predation on sea lions. It is likely the killer whale predation has little or no direct impact on the Steller sea lion population on Brat Chirpoev Islands during the breeding period.     

Linking seasonal distribution patterns with prey availability in a central-place forager, the Steller sea lion

Aim We used a novel approach to infer foraging areas of a central‐place forager, the Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus), by assessing changes in the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of sea lions at terrestrial sites. Specifically, our objectives were (1) to classify seasonal distribution patterns of Steller sea lions and (2) to determine to what extent the seasonal distribution of Steller sea lions is explained by seasonal concentrations of prey. Location Southeast Alaska, USA. Methods Steller sea lions of all age classes were counted monthly (2001–04) by aerial surveys at 28 terrestrial sites. Hierarchical cluster analysis and principal components analysis were used to classify seasonal distribution patterns of Steller sea lions at these terrestrial sites. We estimated the proportion of sea lions in the study area that were associated with each seasonal distribution pattern. Results Multivariate ordination techniques revealed four distinct seasonal distributional patterns. During December, 55% of the sea lions in the study area were found at Type 1 sites, located near over‐wintering herring aggregations. During May, 56% of sea lions were found at Type 2 sites, near aggregations of spring‐spawning forage fish. In July, 78% of sea lions were found at Type 3 sites, near summer migratory corridors of salmon. During September, 44% of sea lions were found at Type 4 sites, near autumn migratory corridors of salmon. Main conclusions Seasonal attendance patterns of sea lions were commonly associated with the seasonal availability of prey species near terrestrial sites and reflected seasonal foraging patterns of Steller sea lions in Southeast Alaska. A reasonable annual foraging strategy for Steller sea lions is to forage on herring (Clupea pallasii) aggregations in winter, spawning aggregations of forage fish in spring, salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in summer and autumn, and pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) throughout the year. The seasonal use of haulouts by sea lions and ultimately haulout‐specific foraging patterns of Steller sea lions depend in part upon seasonally available prey species in each region.     

Predation on an upper trophic marine predator, the Steller sea lion: evaluating high juvenile mortality in a density dependent conceptual framework

The endangered western stock of the Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus)--the largest of the eared seals--has declined by 80% from population levels encountered four decades ago. Current overall trends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Aleutian Islands appear neutral with strong regional heterogeneities. A published inferential model has been used to hypothesize a continuous decline in natality and depressed juvenile survival during the height of the decline in the mid-late 1980's, followed by the recent recovery of juvenile survival to pre-decline rates. However, these hypotheses have not been tested by direct means, and causes underlying past and present population trajectories remain unresolved and controversial. We determined post-weaning juvenile survival and causes of mortality using data received post-mortem via satellite from telemetry transmitters implanted into 36 juvenile Steller sea lions from 2005 through 2011. Data show high post-weaning mortality by predation in the eastern Gulf of Alaska region. To evaluate the impact of such high levels of predation, we developed a conceptual framework to integrate density dependent with density independent effects on vital rates and population trajectories. Our data and model do not support the hypothesized recent recovery of juvenile survival rates and reduced natality. Instead, our data demonstrate continued low juvenile survival in the Prince William Sound and Kenai Fjords region of the Gulf of Alaska. Our results on contemporary predation rates combined with the density dependent conceptual framework suggest predation on juvenile sea lions as the largest impediment to recovery of the species in the eastern Gulf of Alaska region. The framework also highlights the necessity for demographic models based on age-structured census data to incorporate the differential impact of predation on multiple vital rates.     

RISK OF EXTIRPATION OF STELLER SEA LIONS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: A POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS BASED ON ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES FOR WHY SEA LIONS DECLINED IN WESTERN ALASKA

We estimated the risk that the Steller sea lion will be extirpated in western Alaska using a population viability analysis (PVA) that combined simulations with statistically fitted models of historical population dynamics. Our analysis considered the roles that density‐dependent and density‐independent factors may have played in the past, and how they might influence future population dynamics. It also established functional relationships between population size, population growth rate and the risk of extinction under alternative hypotheses about population regulation and environmental variability. These functional relationships can be used to develop recovery criteria and guide research and management decisions. Life table parameters (e.g., birth and survival rates) operating during the population decline (1978–2002) were estimated by fitting simple age‐structured models to time‐series of pup and non‐pup counts from 33 rookeries (subpopulations). The PVA was carried out by projecting all 33 subpopulations into the future using these estimated site‐specific life tables (with associated uncertainties) and different assumptions about carrying capacities and the presence or absence of density‐dependent population regulation. Results suggest that the overall predicted risk of extirpation of Steller sea lions as a species in western Alaska was low in the next 100 yr under all scenarios explored. However, most subpopulations of Steller sea lions had high probabilities of going extinct within the next 100 yr if trends observed during the 1990s were to continue. Two clusters of contiguous subpopulations occurring in the Unimak Pass area in the western Gulf of Alaska/eastern Aleutian Islands and the Seguam–Adak region in the central Aleutian Islands had relatively lower risks of extinction. Risks of extinction for a number of subpopulations in the Gulf of Alaska were reduced if the increases observed since the late 1990s continue into the future. The risks of subpopulations going extinct were small when density‐dependent compensation in birth and survival rates was assumed, even when random stochasticity in these vital rates was introduced.