Combining system dynamic model and CLUE-S model to improve land use scenario analyses at regional scale: A case study of Sangong watershed in Xinjiang,China

Uses of models of land use change are primary tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of land use changes, assessing the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and supporting land use planning and policy. However, no single model is able to capture all of key processes essential to explore land use change at different scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and impacts. Based on the multi-scale characteristics of land use change, combination and integration of currently existed models of land use change could be a feasible solution. Taken Sangong watershed as a case study, this paper describes an integrated methodology in which the conversion of land use and its effect model (CLUE), a spatially explicit land use change model, has been combined with a system dynamic model (SD) to analyze land use dynamics at different scales. A SD model is used to calculate area changes in demand for land types as a whole while a CLUE model is used to transfer these demands to land use patterns. Without the spatial consideration, the SD model ensures an appropriate treatment of macro-economic, demographic and technology developments, and changes in economic policies influencing the demand and supply for land use in a specific region. With CLUE model the land use change has been simulated at a high spatial resolution with the spatial consideration of land use suitability, spatial policies and restrictions to satisfy the balance between land use demand and supply. The application of the combination of SD and CLUE model in Sangong watershed suggests that this methodology have the ability to reflect the complex behaviors of land use system at different scales to some extent and be a useful tool for analysis of complex land use driving factors such as land use policies and assessment of its impacts on land use change. The established SD model was fitted or calibrated with the 1987–1998 data and validated with the 1998–2004 data; combining SD model with CLUE-S model, future land use scenarios were analyzed during 2004–2030. This work could be used for better understanding of the possible impacts of land use change on terrestrial ecosystem and provide scientific support for land use planning and managements of the watershed.     

Use of objects as hammers to open nuts by capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella)

The use of stones as hammers to break open nuts was studied in a captive group of 7 Cebus apella. Only the single adult female and an infant showed no tool use. Tool use significantly reduced the time required to break open the nuts and obtain the kernel and led to fewer nuts being abandoned. Individual differences and social processes surrounding tool use are described. The development of tool use in a juvenile female is documented, along with the same female's novel use of a previously neglected object as a tool and the subsequent use of this object by the other members of the group.     

Cancer patterns in Canada.

Data from a cross-sectional survey of the health of Ontario children carried out in 1983 were used to provide estimates of the prevalence, patterns and sociodemographic correlates of the use of tobacco, alcohol and illicit drugs (substance use) among adolescents aged 12 to 16 years. Ninety-one percent of selected households participated. The prevalence rates of all categories of substance use, except use of inhalants, increased with increasing age. Among children aged 14 to 16 years the rates for girls were higher than those for boys for all categories of substance use except use of other, nondefined drugs. The prevalence rates of substance use tended to be higher in small urban areas except for use of marijuana (more prevalent in large urban areas) and use of inhalants (more prevalent in rural areas). The strongest evidence of clustering of substance use within families was found for smoking. Children who used less prevalent drugs (e.g., "hard" drugs) also tended to use the more prevalent ones (e.g., marijuana, tobacco and alcohol). Associations between substance use and low socioeconomic status suggested a positive relation with smoking and a negative relation with use of alcohol. The findings highlight the need for preventive programs aimed at specific subgroups in the adolescent population.     

Diagnostic Criteria for Problematic Internet Use among U.S. University Students: A Mixed-Methods Evaluation

Empirical studies have identified increasing rates of problematic Internet use worldwide and a host of related negative consequences. However, researchers disagree as to whether problematic Internet use is a subtype of behavioral addiction. Thus, there are not yet widely accepted and validated diagnostic criteria for problematic Internet use. To address this gap, we used mixed-methods to examine the extent to which signs and symptoms of problematic Internet use mirror DSM-5 diagnostic criteria for substance use disorder, gambling disorder, and Internet gaming disorder. A total of 27 university students, who self-identified as intensive Internet users and who reported Internet-use-associated health and/or psychosocial problems were recruited. Students completed two measures that assess problematic Internet use (Young’s Diagnostic Questionnaire and the Compulsive Internet Use Scale) and participated in focus groups exploring their experiences with problematic Internet use. Results of standardized measures and focus group discussions indicated substantial overlap between students’ experiences of problematic Internet use and the signs and symptoms reflected in the DSM-5 criteria for substance use disorder, gambling disorder, and Internet gaming disorder. These signs and symptoms included: a) use Internet longer than intended, b) preoccupation with the Internet, c) withdrawal symptoms when unable to access the Internet, d) unsuccessful attempts to stop or reduce Internet use, e) craving, f) loss of interest in hobbies or activities other than the Internet, g) excessive Internet use despite the knowledge of related problems, g) use of the Internet to escape or relieve a negative mood, and h) lying about Internet use. Tolerance, withdrawal symptoms, and recurrent Internet use in hazardous situations were uniquely manifested in the context of problematic Internet use. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

Sectorial Water Use Trends in the Urbanizing Pearl River Delta,China

Assessing and managing water use is crucial for supporting sustainable river basin management and regional development. The first consistent and comprehensive assessment of sectorial water use in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) is presented by analysing homogenized annual water use data from 2000 to 2010 in relation to socio economic statistics for the same period. An abstraction of water use, using the concept of water use intensity, and based on equations inspired by those used in global water resource models, is developed to explore the driving forces underlying water use changes in domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors. We do this at both the level of the region as a whole, as well as for the nine cities that constitute the PRD separately. We find that, despite strong population and economic growth, the PRD managed to stabilize its absolute water use by significant improvements in industrial water use intensities, and early stabilisation of domestic water use intensities. Results reveal large internal differentiation of sectorial water use among the cities in this region, with industrial water use intensity varying from -80 to +95% and domestic water use intensity by +/- 30% compared to the PRD average. In general, per capita water use is highest in the cities that industrialised first. Yet, all cities except Guangzhou are expected to approach a saturation value of per capita water use much below what is suggested in recent global studies. Therefore, existing global assessments probably have overestimated future domestic water use in developing countries. Although scarce and uncertain input data and model limitations lead to a high level of uncertainty, the presented conceptualization of water use is useful in exploring the underlying driving forces of water use trends.     

Functional responses in polar bear habitat selection

Habitat selection may occur in situations in which animals experience a trade-off, e.g. between the use of habitats with abundant forage and the use of safer retreat habitats with little forage. Such trade-offs may yield relative habitat use conditional on the relative availability of the different habitat types, as proportional use of foraging habitat may exceed proportional availability when foraging habitat is scarce, but be less than availability when foraging habitat is abundant. Hence, trade-offs in habitat use may result in functional responses in habitat use (i.e. change in relative use with changing availability). We used logistic and log-linear models to model functional responses in female polar bear habitat use based on satellite telemetry data from two contiguous populations; one near shore inhabiting sea ice within fjords, and one inhabiting pelagic drift ice. Open ice, near the ice edge, is a highly dynamic habitat hypothesised to be important polar bear habitat due to high prey availability. In open ice-polar bears may experience a high energetic cost of movements and risk drifting away from the main ice field (i.e. trade off between feeding and energy saving or safety). If polar bears were constrained by ice dynamics we therefore predicted use of retreat habitats with greater ice coverage relative to habitats used for hunting. The polar bears demonstrated season and population specific functional responses in habitat use, likely reflecting seasonal and regional variation in use of retreat and foraging habitats. We suggest that in seasons with functional responses in habitat use, polar bear space use and population distribution may not be a mere reflection of prey availability but rather reflect the alternate allocation of time in hunting and retreat habitats.     

Relative importance of abiotic and land use factors in explaining variation in woody vegetation in a French rural landscape

Abstract. In a rural landscape, scale vegetation patterns of woody species are controlled by both abiotic and land use factors. The woody species composition in 126 sample plots was analysed and land use factors and some abiotic parameters were quantified using land register data. The relative importance of land use and abiotic factors was differentiated using a partial Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA); the influence of land use in neighbouring areas was explored by changing the scale of land use sampling. The woody species composition appears to be controlled equally by land use and abiotic factors. The fraction of floristic variation in tree species composition explained by land use variables was 33.2 % in 1980 and 30.8 % in 1992, while abiotic variables accounted for 31.2 %. Part of the 17 % of the floristic variance explained is related to the surrounding land use. Thus, when the land use of the sampled plots and the surrounding land use are considered simultaneously, up to 36.9 % of the species variation may be explained. Partial CCA enabled us to quantify the respective proportion of floristic variance which could be explained by land use (36.9 %), abiotic variables alone (20.2 %), shared variance (12.0 %) and unexplained variance (31.2 %). Our results indicated that a delayed effect of variation in land use on plant populations may exist. This delay may result either from population characteristics or from inadequate land use assessment. This study indicates the need for simultaneously examining land use and abiotic patterns in ecological studies, as many Mediterranean-type ecosystems have been shaped by these patterns.     

The impact of forest management on litter-dwelling invertebrates: a subtropical–temperate contrast

Land use intensification in forests is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. Although historical state of land use differs between subtropical and temperate zones, gradients of land-use intensities similarly range from unmanaged to very intensively managed forests. Irrespective of similar land use forces in both climate zones, comparative studies on land use effects are still rare. Such studies are, however, promising in discovering more general impacts and geographical specifics of land use intensification. We studied litter-dwelling invertebrates along a gradient of increasing land use intensity in subtropical forests in Southern Brazil and temperate forests in Central Europe using similar sampling designs. Effects of land use intensity on the entire community were analyzed on the level of orders and feeding guilds. In both climate zones a similar number of individuals were caught when standardizes to 100 pitfall trap days, but taxa richness was higher in the subtropics. Moreover, community composition differed between both climate zones. In both regions, land use intensity did not affect taxa richness, but invertebrate abundance was affected in opposite ways; while increasing land use intensity resulted in a decrease of invertebrate abundance in the subtropics, an increase was observed in the temperate zone and this was mostly consistent regarding different feeding guilds. Management practices should take into account that the effect of land use intensity on biodiversity can differ drastically among climatic regions.     

北京市土地利用生态分类方法

本文从国内外土地利用分类体系的现状分析入手,分析了当前土地利用分类体系与生态保护存在的矛盾,提出进行土地利用生态分类。首先,将北京市的土地利用现状类型分析归并为9个一级类15个二级类,确定各土地利用类型基准生态服务价值,然后提出各土地利用类型生态系统服务价值的区位修正方法,在对各种土地利用类型生态系统服务价值进行区位修正的基础上,划分出6个一级生态用地类型。其次,对北京市进行生态适宜性评价,生成生态适宜性分布图,将已生成的土地利用生态一级分类图与生态适宜性分布图进行叠加,对一级生态用地类型进行了二级划分,得到6个大类、18个亚类的北京市土地利用生态用地类型。最后,以北京市2007年的土地利用现状图为例,对北京市的土地利用生态分类方法进行应用,得到了2007年北京市土地利用生态分类图并分析了各土地利用生态用地类型的分布状况。     

Evolutionary rates in the adaptive radiation of beetles on plants

Herbivorous insects and other small consumers are often specialized both in use of particular host taxa and in use of particular host tissues. Such consumers also often seem to show consistent differences in the rates of evolution of these two dimensions of host use, implying common processes, but this has been little studied. Here we quantify these rates of change in host use evolution in a major radiation of herbivorous insects, the Chrysomeloidea, whose diversity has been attributed to their use of flowering plants. We find a significant difference in the rates of evolutionary change in these two dimensions of host use, with host taxon associations most labile. There are apparently similar differences in rates of host use evolution in other parasite groups, suggesting the generality of this pattern. Divergences in parasite form associated with use of different host tissues may facilitate resource partitioning among successive adaptive radiations on particular host taxa.     

基于改进TOPSIS方法的三峡库区生态敏感区土地利用系统健康评价

土地利用系统健康评价研究能够有效引导土地合理利用,协调城市发展与自然生态保护之间的矛盾。构建基于PSR模型的土地利用系统健康评价指标体系,并采用改进TOPSIS方法对三峡库区生态敏感区的典型区域—重庆市进行实证分析。结果表明:1)研究区土地利用系统健康综合分值整体呈现T型带状分布格局,可分为四个健康等级,即健康、临界健康、不健康、病态。2)渝东北、渝东南和重庆市西南片区部分地区因其土地生态系统脆弱敏感,土地利用风险性大和生态系统稳定性差,土地生态系统呈现病态和不健康状态,属于高风险-高压力区域;重庆市主城区环线区域因其属于城市核心拓展区和人类活动频繁区域,人口压力指数和土地利用压力指数较大,土地利用风险性较小,健康度较为良好,是低风险-中度压力区域。3)PSR模型能够较好地改变现有研究主要关注自然资源环境的状况,更准确地反映土地利用系统健康的各要素之间的关系和影响土地生态系统健康的关键因素,为三峡库区生态敏感区土地利用系统健康状态起到一定的预警作用。4)以改进TOPsis方法计算土地利用系统健康指数,消除了不同指标量纲的影响,并能充分利用原始数据的信息,能充分反映各方案之间的差距,客观真实的反映实际情况。5)为保障三峡库区生态敏感区土地利用系统的健康发展,应加强土地利用规划与调整,控制人类过度开发,维持生态系统正常功能。     

CLUENaban—A land use change model combining social factors with physical landscape factors for a mountainous area in Southwest China

Land use modelling has used rural areas as object for a long time. Modellers start in general with physical landscape factors to determine the spatial distribution of land use, especially agricultural crops. An important factor defining rural areas is the dominance of livelihoods/economies based on agriculture combined with a strong relationship to tradition, high value of family ties, scales of social aggregation, and a framework given by nature. The inter-linkages among economic, social and environmental components determine both the complexity and dynamics of rural development. Both modellers and social scientists seek a better understanding of these complex rural systems in terms of their development paths, the underlying forces and the interactions between physical land use and rural society. In this paper, we use a combination of a land use change model and information about social relationship by referring both to the common spatial unit of villages for a rural region in south west China. We want to show how such a common unit can help to include social science information into a physically oriented land use model. The inclusion of social data results in a substantial improvement of the modelling results. In the model run we could show that land use patterns in the study area were closely related to socio-economic characteristics and governmental rules. In China, collective land and state land are distinguished. This land designation turned out to be the most important factor for the land use types rainfed, irrigated land, and rubber. All land use types were influenced by the ethnicity of village inhabitants because they had different land use traditions.     

Use of automobile seat restraints by children in two Canadian cities.

A telephone survey was conducted in Montreal and Calgary to determine the extent to which parents use safety restraints for their children in cars, the types of restraints used and the factors associated with such use. Of the combined sample 39% reported that their child regularly used a restraint, and 47% of the children in Montreal and 55% of those in Calgary wore an age-appropriate safety device. Birth order and the child''s and the respondent''s ages were significantly related to the use of restraints. However, the respondent''s use of seatbelts was the factor most likely to affect the rate of use of restraints for children. Although a large proportion of the parents with younger children owned a carseat, one in four did not use it regularly. Parents who did not use carseats believed they were useless or dangerous; many preferred to hold the child in their laps or arms. The seatbelt law in Quebec and the existence of a carseat rental program in Calgary appear to have had some influence on the rate of the use of restraints for children.     

基于CLUE-S模型的不同情景下区域土地利用布局优化

土地利用规划要求把土地资源最终配置在空间上,而现有文献更多是对土地利用结构的优化,很少对全局土地利用布局优化,鉴于此,为减轻土地利用规划的多目标冲突,同时为提高资源配置效率,释放空间效应,对不同情景下的土地利用布局优化进行研究。用非线性优化模型中的理想点法求取了不同情景下最优土地利用结构,用Logistic回归提取了不同用地的优化布局规则,以不同情景下的土地优化结构为数量约束,借助CLUE-S模型的全局配置能力对各情景下的用地布局作优化,并以扬州市为实例进行阐述。结果表明:(1)优先发展经济情景下,2025年扬州土地利用经济产值是10.4×10~7万元,优先保护生态情景下,目标年生态服务价值是9.7×10~5万元,保障公众福利情景下,公众福利大小是351271 hm~2;(2)经济增长目标对土地利用结构的情景变化最为敏感,而公众福利目标的敏感性最小;(3)与基期年比,发展经济与保育生态情景下的土地优化布局变化最大,前者主要是市区城镇工矿用地向东部及西北扩张,后者则是在西南丘陵及南部长江岸边配置了大量园地、林地。提出的不同情景下土地利用布局的优化方法可为土地利用规划及生态规划提供有力技术支持。     

Electronic Cigarette Use among Irish Youth: A Cross Sectional Study of Prevalence and Associated Factors

PurposeTo examine prevalence of, and factors associated with, e-cigarette use among young people aged 16-17 in Ireland.MethodsIn 2014, a representative sample of 821 young people aged 16-17 recruited from secondary schools completed a pen and paper survey on e-cigarette use, tobacco use, and socio-demographic items.FindingsA total of 23.8% of respondents had used e-cigarettes at least once. Dual trial of tobacco and e-cigarettes was common with 69.5% of regular smokers and 30.4% of ‘ever’ smokers having tried e-cigarettes and 10.6% of current smokers using e-cigarettes regularly. 4.2% of never smokers have tried e-cigarettes. Overall, current e-cigarette use (once a month or more) was low (3.2%). Binary logistic regression conducted through generalized estimating equations (GEE) determined that controlling for other variables, current tobacco use and ‘ever’ tobacco use predicted ever e-cigarette use. Gender and school-level socioeconomic status were also independent predictors of ever e-cigarette use. Gender stood as the only predictor of on-going e-cigarette use, with males being more likely to regularly use e-cigarettes at least once a month.ConclusionsE-cigarette use among 16-17 year olds in Ireland is of note, with nearly a quarter of students having tried them. Concurrent or experimental use of e-cigarettes and tobacco is more common than sole use, while a small number have tried e-cigarettes without having tried tobacco.     

Impulsivity as a determinant and consequence of drug use: a review of underlying processes

Impulsive behaviors are closely linked to drug use and abuse, both as contributors to use and as consequences of use. Trait impulsivity is an important determinant of drug use during development, and in adults momentary 'state' increases in impulsive behavior may increase the likelihood of drug use, especially in individuals attempting to abstain. Conversely, acute and chronic effects of drug use may increase impulsive behaviors, which may in turn facilitate further drug use. However, these effects depend on the behavioral measure used to assess impulsivity. This article reviews data from controlled studies investigating different measures of impulsive behaviors, including delay discounting, behavioral inhibition and a newly proposed measure of inattention. Our findings support the hypothesis that drugs of abuse alter performance across independent behavioral measures of impulsivity. The findings lay the groundwork for studying the cognitive and neurobiological substrates of impulsivity, and for future studies on the role of impulsive behavior as both facilitator and a result of drug use.     

中国东部南北样带森林优势植物叶片的水分利用效率和氮素利用效率

通过测定中国东部南北样带主要森林生态系统中10种优势植物(兴安落叶松、蒙古栎、水曲柳、紫椴、色木槭、红松、杉木、木荷、马尾松、锥栗)叶片的碳氮含量(Cmass、Nmass)、同位素丰度(δ13C、δ15N)以及光合响应曲线,分析了不同优势植物叶片的水分利用效率和氮素利用效率之间的差异及其相互关系.结果表明： 不同生活型植物叶片的Nmass和δ15N差异显著,表现为阔叶植物>针叶植物,落叶植物>常绿植物;最大光合速率(Pn max)表现为针叶植物>阔叶植物,落叶植物>常绿植物;植物叶片的瞬时水分利用效率(WUEi)和长期水分利用效率(WUE)均表现为阔叶植物>针叶植物,常绿植物>落叶植物;植物叶片的瞬时氮素利用效率(NUEi)和长期氮素利用效率(NUE)则表现出相反的规律,且常绿植物和落叶植物叶片的NUE差异显著;WUEi和WUE之间相关性不显著,而NUEi和NUE之间呈显著正相关.植物叶片的水分利用效率与氮素利用效率显著负相关.两种资源利用效率均受植物生活型的影响,并且存在一定的制约关系.