Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest,USA

The effectiveness of a system of reserves may be compromised under climate change as species' habitat shifts to nonreserved areas, a problem that may be compounded when well‐studied vertebrate species are used as conservation umbrellas for other taxa. The Northwest Forest Plan was among the first efforts to integrate conservation of wide‐ranging focal species and localized endemics into regional conservation planning. We evaluated how effectively the plan's focal species, the Northern Spotted Owl, acts as an umbrella for localized species under current and projected future climates and how the regional system of reserves can be made more resilient to climate change. We used the program maxent to develop distribution models integrating climate data with vegetation variables for the owl and 130 localized species. We used the program zonation to identify a system of areas that efficiently captures habitat for both the owl and localized species and prioritizes refugial areas of climatic and topographic heterogeneity where current and future habitat for dispersal‐limited species is in proximity. We projected future species' distributions based on an ensemble of contrasting climate models, and incorporating uncertainty between alternate climate projections into the prioritization process. Reserve solutions based on the owl overlap areas of high localized‐species richness but poorly capture core areas of localized species' distribution. Congruence between priority areas across taxa increases when refugial areas are prioritized. Although core‐area selection strategies can potentially increase the conservation value and resilience of regional reserve systems, they accentuate contrasts in priority areas between species and over time and should be combined with a broadened taxonomic scope and increased attention to potential effects of climate change. Our results suggest that systems of fixed reserves designed for resilience can increase the likelihood of retaining the biological diversity of forest ecosystems under climate change.     

Towards systematic and evidence‐based conservation planning for western chimpanzees

As animal populations continue to decline, frequently driven by large‐scale land‐use change, there is a critical need for improved environmental planning. While data‐driven spatial planning is widely applied in conservation, as of yet it is rarely used for primates. The western chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes verus) declined by 80% within 24 years and was uplisted to Critically Endangered by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species in 2016. To support conservation planning for western chimpanzees, we systematically identified geographic areas important for this taxon. We based our analysis on a previously published data set of modeled density distribution and on several scenarios that accounted for different spatial scales and conservation targets. Across all scenarios, typically less than one‐third of areas we identified as important are currently designated as high‐level protected areas (i.e., national park or IUCN category I or II). For example, in the scenario for protecting 50% of all chimpanzees remaining in West Africa (i.e., approximately 26,500 chimpanzees), an area of approximately 60,000 km² was selected (i.e., approximately 12% of the geographic range), only 24% of which is currently designated as protected areas. The derived maps can be used to inform the geographic prioritization of conservation interventions, including protected area expansion, “no‐go‐zones” for industry and infrastructure, and conservation sites outside the protected area network. Environmental guidelines by major institutions funding infrastructure and resource extraction projects explicitly require corporations to minimize the negative impact on great apes. Therefore, our results can inform avoidance and mitigation measures during the planning phases of such projects. This study was designed to inform future stakeholder consultation processes that could ultimately integrate the conservation of western chimpanzees with national land‐use priorities. Our approach may help in promoting similar work for other primate taxa to inform systematic conservation planning in times of growing threats.     

Allowing for human socioeconomic impacts in the conservation of plants under climate change

Abstract

The impact of climate change on conservation planning is affected by the availability of data (especially in data-sparse countries) and socioeconomic impacts. We build models using MaxEnt for Egyptian medicinal plants as a model system, projecting them to different future times under two IPCC 4th assessment emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) assuming unlimited and no dispersal. We compare the effect of two indices of socioeconomic activity [Human Influence Index (HII) and human population density/km²] as cost layers in spatial prioritization for conservation using zonation. We assess the efficacy of Egypt's network of Protected Areas (PAs) by comparing the predicted conservation value inside and outside each PA under the various scenarios. The results show that there are many locations in Egypt (the main cities, agricultural land, coastal areas) that are highly ranked for conservation before human socioeconomic impacts are included. The HII had a stronger impact than using human population density. The PA value excess (inside–outside) varied significantly with the type of cost and dispersal, but not with climate-change scenario or Zonation settings. We conclude that human socioeconomic impacts add new scope and insights for future conservation; and conservation planning without consideration of such impacts cannot be complete.     

Using biogeographical history to inform conservation: the case of Preble's meadow jumping mouse

The last Pleistocene deglaciation shaped temperate and boreal communities in North America. Rapid northward expansion into high latitudes created distinctive spatial genetic patterns within species that include closely related groups of populations that are now widely spread across latitudes, while longitudinally adjacent populations, especially those near the southern periphery, often are distinctive due to long‐term disjunction. Across a spatial expanse that includes both recently colonized and long‐occupied regions, we analysed molecular variation in zapodid rodents to explore how past climate shifts influenced diversification in this group. By combining molecular analyses with species distribution modelling and tests of ecological interchangeability, we show that the lineage including the Preble's meadow jumping mouse (Zapus hudsonius preblei), a US federally listed taxon of conservation concern, is not restricted to the southern Rocky Mountains. Rather, populations along the Front Range are part of a single lineage that is ecologically indistinct and extends to the far north. Of the 21 lineages identified, this Northern lineage has the largest geographical range and low measures of intralineage genetic differentiation, consistent with recent northward expansion. Comprehensive sampling combined with coalescent‐based analyses and niche modelling leads to a radically different view of geographical structure within jumping mice and indicates the need to re‐evaluate their taxonomy and management. This analysis highlights a premise in conservation biology that biogeographical history should play a central role in establishing conservation priorities.     

Identifying mismatches between conservation area networks and vulnerable populations using spatial randomization

Grassland birds are among the most globally threatened bird groups due to substantial degradation of native grassland habitats. However, the current network of grassland conservation areas may not be adequate for halting population declines and biodiversity loss. Here, we evaluate a network of grassland conservation areas within Wisconsin, U.S.A., that includes both large Focal Landscapes and smaller targeted conservation areas (e.g., Grassland Bird Conservation Areas, GBCAs) established within them. To date, this conservation network has lacked baseline information to assess whether the current placement of these conservation areas aligns with population hot spots of grassland‐dependent taxa. To do so, we fitted data from thousands of avian point‐count surveys collected by citizen scientists as part of Wisconsin''s Breeding Bird Atlas II with multinomial N‐mixture models to estimate habitat–abundance relationships, develop spatially explicit predictions of abundance, and establish ecological baselines within priority conservation areas for a suite of obligate grassland songbirds. Next, we developed spatial randomization tests to evaluate the placement of this conservation network relative to randomly placed conservation networks. Overall, less than 20% of species statewide populations were found within the current grassland conservation network. Spatial tests demonstrated a high representation of this bird assemblage within the entire conservation network, but with a bias toward birds associated with moderately tallgrasses relative to those associated with shortgrasses or tallgrasses. We also found that GBCAs had higher representation at Focal Landscape rather than statewide scales. Here, we demonstrated how combining citizen science data with hierarchical modeling is a powerful tool for estimating ecological baselines and conducting large‐scale evaluations of an existing conservation network for multiple grassland birds. Our flexible spatial randomization approach offers the potential to be applied to other protected area networks and serves as a complementary tool for conservation planning efforts globally.     

Prioritizing conservation investments for mammal species globally

We need to set priorities for conservation because we cannot do everything, everywhere, at the same time. We determined priority areas for investment in threat abatement actions, in both a cost-effective and spatially and temporally explicit way, for the threatened mammals of the world. Our analysis presents the first fine-resolution prioritization analysis for mammals at a global scale that accounts for the risk of habitat loss, the actions required to abate this risk, the costs of these actions and the likelihood of investment success. We evaluated the likelihood of success of investments using information on the past frequency and duration of legislative effectiveness at a country scale. The establishment of new protected areas was the action receiving the greatest investment, while restoration was never chosen. The resolution of the analysis and the incorporation of likelihood of success made little difference to this result, but affected the spatial location of these investments.     

Prioritizing refugia for freshwater biodiversity conservation in highly seasonal ecosystems

Aim

Refugia play a key ecological role for the persistence of biodiversity in areas subject to natural or human disturbance. Temporary freshwater ecosystems regularly experience dry periods, which constrain the availability of suitable habitats. Current and future threats (e.g. water extraction and climate change) can exacerbate the negative effects of drying conditions. This could compromise the persistence of a large proportion of global freshwater biodiversity, so the identification and protection of refugia seems an urgent task.

Location

Northern Australia.

Methods

We demonstrate a new approach to identify and prioritize the selection of refugia and apply it to the conservation of freshwater fish biodiversity. We identified refugia using estimates of water residency time derived from satellite imagery and used a systematic approach to prioritize areas that provide all the fish species inhabiting the catchment with access to a minimum number of refugia while maximizing the length of stream potentially accessible for recolonization after the dry period. These priority refugia were locked into a broader systematic conservation plan with area‐based targets and direct connectivity. We accounted for current threats during the prioritization process to ensure degraded areas were avoided, thus maximizing the ecological role of priority refugia.

Results

Priority refugia were located in lowland reaches, where the incidence of threats was less prominent in our study area and headwaters in good condition. An additional set of 106 planning units (6500 km²) were required to represent 10% of each species' distribution in the broad conservation plan. A hierarchical management zoning scheme was applied to demonstrate how these key ecological features could be effectively protected from the major threats caused by aquatic invasive species and grazing.

Main conclusions

This new approach to identifying priority refugia and incorporating them into the conservation planning process in a systematic way would help enhance the resilience of freshwater biodiversity in temporary systems.

     

Governance factors in the identification of global conservation priorities for mammals

Global conservation priorities have often been identified based on the combination of species richness and threat information. With the development of the field of systematic conservation planning, more attention has been given to conservation costs. This leads to prioritizing developing countries, where costs are generally low and biodiversity is high. But many of these countries have poor governance, which may result in ineffective conservation or in larger costs than initially expected. We explore how the consideration of governance affects the selection of global conservation priorities for the world's mammals in a complementarity-based conservation prioritization. We use data on Control of Corruption (Worldwide Governance Indicators project) as an indicator of governance effectiveness, and gross domestic product per capita as an indicator of cost. We show that, while core areas with high levels of endemism are always selected as important regardless of governance and cost values, there are clear regional differences in selected sites when biodiversity, cost or governance are taken into account separately. Overall, the analysis supports the concentration of conservation efforts in most of the regions generally considered of high priority, but stresses the need for different conservation approaches in different continents owing to spatial patterns of governance and economic development.     

Downscaling patterns of complementarity to a finer resolution and its implications for conservation prioritization

Given species inventories of all sites in a planning area, integer programming or heuristic algorithms can prioritize sites in terms of the site's complementary value, that is, the ability of the site to complement (add unrepresented species to) other sites prioritized for conservation. The utility of these procedures is limited because distributions of species are typically available only as coarse atlases or range maps, whereas conservation planners need to prioritize relatively small sites. If such coarse‐resolution information can be used to identify small sites that efficiently represent species (i.e., downscaled), then such data can be useful for conservation planning. We develop and test a new type of surrogate for biodiversity, which we call downscaled complementarity. In this approach, complementarity values from large cells are downscaled to small cells, using statistical methods or simple map overlays. We illustrate our approach for birds in Spain by building models at coarse scale (50 × 50 km atlas of European birds, and global range maps of birds interpreted at the same 50 × 50 km grid size), using this model to predict complementary value for 10 × 10 km cells in Spain, and testing how well‐prioritized cells represented bird distributions in an independent bird atlas of those 10 × 10 km cells. Downscaled complementarity was about 63–77% as effective as having full knowledge of the 10‐km atlas data in its ability to improve on random selection of sites. Downscaled complementarity has relatively low data acquisition cost and meets representation goals well compared with other surrogates currently in use. Our study justifies additional tests to determine whether downscaled complementarity is an effective surrogate for other regions and taxa, and at spatial resolution finer than 10 × 10 km cells. Until such tests have been completed, we caution against assuming that any surrogate can reliably prioritize sites for species representation.     

Reintroduction of freshwater macroinvertebrates: challenges and opportunities

Species reintroductions – the translocation of individuals to areas in which a species has been extirpated with the aim of re‐establishing a self‐sustaining population – have become a widespread practice in conservation biology. Reintroduction projects have tended to focus on terrestrial vertebrates and, to a lesser extent, fishes. Much less effort has been devoted to the reintroduction of invertebrates into restored freshwater habitats. Yet, reintroductions may improve restoration outcomes in regions where impoverished regional species pools limit the self‐recolonisation of restored freshwaters. We review the available literature on macroinvertebrate reintroductions, focusing on identifying the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that determine their success or failure. Our study reveals that freshwater macroinvertebrate reintroductions remain rare, are often published in the grey literature and, of the attempts made, approximately one‐third fail. We identify life‐cycle complexity and remaining stressors as the two factors most likely to affect reintroduction success, illustrating the unique challenges of freshwater macroinvertebrate reintroductions. Consideration of these factors by managers during the planning process and proper documentation – even if a project fails – may increase the likelihood of successful outcomes in future reintroduction attempts of freshwater macroinvertebrates.     

基于随机森林模型的国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种优先保护区的识别

准确可靠地识别国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种的优先保护区,是生物多样性保护的热点问题之一。采用随机森林(random forests)模型,基于12个环境变量,对中国263种国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物建模,并预测各个物种在背景点的适生概率,迭加计算得到国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种的生境适宜性指数。此外,基于对生境适宜性指数的空间自相关分析,识别和确定国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种优先保护区,并对优先保护区目前的被保护情况进行分析。结果表明,国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种的优先保护区的面积为103.16万km~2,约占我国国土面积的10.90%。优先保护区主要分布在我国的西部地区,包括西南地区的秦岭-大巴山山区、云南省与印度及缅甸的交界地区、武陵山山区、喜马拉雅山-横断山脉山区、阿尔泰山脉山区、天山山脉山区、昆仑山山脉山区;东北的大、小兴安岭、东北-华南沿海地区及长江中下游地区有少量分布。优先保护区中被保护的面积为50.40万km~2,占优先保护区总面积的48.86%,保护率偏低,未被充分保护。利用系统聚类分析,将未被保护的优先保护区划分成3种优先保护顺序,以期为相关部门的决策提供科学依据,更好地保护生物多样性。     

Assessing the conservation of Miombo timber species through an integrated index of anthropogenic and climatic threats

AimAngolan Miombo woodlands, rich in timber species of the Leguminosae family, go through one of the highest rates of deforestation in sub‐Saharan Africa. This study presents, on the basis of updated information of the distribution of Leguminosae timber species native to Angola, an integrated index framing the main threats for trees, which aims to support new conservation measures.LocationSub‐Saharan Africa, Republic of Angola.MethodsThe current distribution areas of six Leguminosae timber species (i.e., Afzelia quanzensis, Brachystegia spiciformis, Guibourtia coleosperma, Isoberlinia angolensis, Julbernardia paniculata, and Pterocarpus angolensis) were predicted through ensemble modeling techniques. The level of threat to each species was analyzed, comparing the species potential distribution with a threat index map and with the protected areas. The threat index of anthropogenic and climatic factors encompasses the effects of population density, agriculture, proximity to roads, loss of tree cover, overexploitation, trends in wildfires, and predicted changes in temperature and precipitation.ResultsOur results revealed that about 0.5% of Angola''s area is classified as of “Very high” threat, 23.9% as “High” threat, and 66.5% as “Moderate” threat. Three of the studied species require special conservation efforts, namely B. spiciformis and I. angolensis, which have a large fraction of predicted distribution in areas of high threat, and G. coleosperma since it has a restricted distribution area and is one of the most valuable species in international markets. The priority areas for the conservation of Leguminosae timber species were found in Benguela and Huíla.Main conclusionsThis study provides updated data that should be applied to inform policymakers, contributing to national conservation planning and protection of native flora in Angola. Moreover, it presents a methodological approach for the predictions of species distribution and for the creation of a threat index map that can be applied in other poorly surveyed tropical regions.     

Australian land snails: a review of ecological research and conservation approaches

Land snails are an important yet often neglected component of Australia's biological diversity. Despite high levels of diversity within this group and the identification of many narrow range endemic species as being of conservation concern, there have been few detailed studies that document the ecology and conservation requirements of the group. A range of threats has been suggested, yet relatively few have been rigorously assessed. Whilst factors such as land clearing are readily apparent and have resulted in extinctions, other threats such as climate change are not well understood. This paper reviews studies conducted on terrestrial molluscs in Australia and highlights the need for further targeted ecological research, given the likely level of on-going threats. We urge researchers to apply rigorous approaches to data collection that will enable a deeper understanding of the factors governing distribution and abundance. Approaches used in other areas of conservation biology offer considerable scope for application to land snails and for the development of appropriate conservation strategies.