Climate‐growth analysis for a Mexican dry forest tree shows strong impact of sea surface temperatures and predicts future growth declines

Tropical forests will experience relatively large changes in temperature and rainfall towards the end of this century. Little is known about how tropical trees will respond to these changes. We used tree rings to establish climate‐growth relations of a pioneer tree, Mimosa acantholoba, occurring in tropical dry secondary forests in southern Mexico. The role of large‐scale climatic drivers in determining interannual growth variation was studied by correlating growth to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, including the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Annual growth varied eightfold over 1970–2007, and was correlated with wet season rainfall (r=0.75). Temperature, cloud cover and solar variation did not affect growth, although these climate variables correlated with growth due to their relations with rainfall. Strong positive correlations between growth and SSTA occurred in the North tropical Atlantic during the first half of the year, and in the Pacific during the second half of the year. The Pacific influence corresponded closely to ENSO‐like influences with negative effects of high SSTA in the eastern Pacific Niño3.4 region on growth due to decreases in rainfall. During El Niño years growth was reduced by 37%. We estimated how growth would be affected by the predicted trend of decreasing rainfall in Central America towards the end of this century. Using rainfall predictions of two sets of climate models, we estimated that growth at the end of this century will be reduced by 12% under a medium (A1B) and 21% under a high (A2) emission scenario. These results suggest that climate change may have repercussions for the carbon sequestration capacity of tropical dry forests in the region.     

Butterfly,seedling, sapling and tree diversity and composition in a fire‐affected Bornean rainforest

Abstract: Fire‐affected forests are becoming an increasingly important component of tropical landscapes. The impact of wildfires on rainforest communities is, however, poorly understood. In this study the density, species richness and community composition of seedlings, saplings, trees and butterflies were assessed in unburned and burned forest following the 1997/98 El Niño Southern Oscillation burn event in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. More than half a year after the fires, sapling and tree densities in the burned forest were only 2.5% and 38.8%, respectively, of those in adjacent unburned forest. Rarefied species richness and Shannon's H’ were higher in unburned forest than burned forest for all groups but only significantly so for seedlings. There were no significant differences in evenness between unburned and burned forest. Matrix regression and Akaike's information criterion (AIC) revealed that the best explanatory models of similarity included both burning and the distance between sample plots indicating that both deterministic processes (related to burning) and dispersal driven stochastic processes structure post‐disturbance rainforest assemblages. Burning though explained substantially more variation in seedling assemblage structure whereas distance was a more important explanatory variable for trees and butterflies. The results indicate that butterfly assemblages in burned forest were primarily derived from adjacent unburned rainforest, exceptions being species of grass‐feeders such as Orsotriaena medus that are normally found in open, disturbed areas, whereas burned forest seedling assemblages were dominated by typical pioneer genera, such as various Macaranga species that were absent or rare in unburned forest. Tree assemblages in the burned forest were represented by a subset of fire‐resistant species, such as Eusideroxylon zwageri and remnant dominant species from the unburned forest.     

Teleconnection between tree growth in the Amazonian floodplains and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation effect

There is a limited knowledge about the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on the Amazon basin, the world's largest tropical rain forest and a major factor in the global carbon cycle. Seasonal precipitation in the Andean watershed annually causes a several month‐long inundation of the floodplains along the Amazon River that induces the formation of annual rings in trees of the flooded forests. Radial growth of trees is mainly restricted to the nonflooded period and thus the ring width corresponds to its duration. This allows the construction of a tree‐ring chronology of the long‐living hardwood species Piranhea trifoliata Baill. (Euphorbiaceae). El Niño causes anomalously low precipitation in the catchment that results in a significantly lower water discharge of the Amazon River and consequently in an extension of the vegetation period. In those years tree rings are significantly wider. Thus the tree‐ring record can be considered as a robust indicator reflecting the mean climate conditions of the whole Western Amazon basin. We present a more than 200‐year long chronology, which is the first ENSO‐sensitive dendroclimatic proxy of the Amazon basin and permits the dating of preinstrumental El Niño events. Time series analyses of our data indicate that during the last two centuries the severity of El Niño increased significantly.     

El Niño events,the lean versus fat scenario,and long‐term guild dynamics of vertebrate predators in a South American semiarid ecosystem

Abstract Predator assemblages are complex systems in which asynchrony in the dynamics of resources and consumers, and the idiosyncratic perception of environmental conditions by the predators may obscure the detection of expected patterns. We disentangle the specific effects of these variables on the guild structure of a vertebrate predatory assemblage in a semiarid ecosystem of western South America. Over 16 years, this system faced dramatic fluctuations in prey availability associated with four El Niño events. After controlling for other sources of variation, we tested if increased resource availability is associated with higher niche overlaps, as expected from the lean/fat scenario. We determined the existence of two trophic guilds of predators (specialized mammal‐eaters and omnivorous species with emphasis on arthropods) and found that they responded to increased productivity both at the guild and whole assemblage levels. However, the population response of arthropod prey (almost simultaneous) and of different small mammal prey (delayed by 1 or 2 years) to productivity imposed a degree of asynchrony in prey availability and in the response of predators. This resulted in the between‐guilds exchange of predator species depending on mammal prey scarcity or abundance. As a consequence, the observed pattern was an apparent lack of response at the assemblage level. Despite differences in the perception of prey levels by predators, we conclude that each one of them responded accordingly to theoretical predictions following a simple rule: if prey resources are not limiting, predators behave opportunistically converging over the most abundant resources, thus increasing niche overlap; if prey shortages occur, predators specialize on those prey resources that they gather most efficiently, thus lowering niche overlap; if resources become even scarcer, all predators converge again upon the few prey resources still available, thus increasing overlap – out of necessity.     

Preliminary Evidence of the Importance of ENSO in Modifying Food Availability for White‐tailed Deer in a Mexican Tropical Dry Forest1

The influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall and its possible effect on availability of food for white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in a tropical dry forest in the Pacific coast of Mexico was studied. From 1977 to 2003 there were three significant El Niño and La Niña events. During El Niño years rainfall decreased during the wet season ( June to October) and increased during the dry season (November to May), with the opposite effect during La Niña years. Plant diversity was monitored in permanent plots during the wet and dry seasons of 1989–1993. The results provide evidence that ENSO events affect deer food availability, particularly in the dry season.     

Modification of Vegetative Phenology in a Tropical Semi‐deciduous Forest by Abnormal Drought and Rain1

The control of vegetative phenology in tropical trees is not well understood. In dry forest trees, leaf abscission may be enhanced by advanced leaf age, increasing water stress, or declining photoperiod. Normally, it is impossible to dissect the effects of each of these variables because most leaves are shed during the early dry season when day length is near its minimum and leaves are relatively old. The 1997 El‐Niño Southern Oscillation caused a ten‐week long, severe abnormal drought from June to August in the semi‐deciduous forests of Guanacaste, Costa Rica. We monitored the effect of this drought on phenology and water status of trees with young leaves and compared modifications of phenology in trees of different functional types with the pattern observed during the regular dry season. Although deciduous trees at dry sites were severely water stressed (Ψstem < ‐7MPa) and their mesic leaves remained wilted for more than two months, these and all other trees retained all leaves during the abnormal drought. Many trees exchanged leaves three to four months earlier than normal during the wet period after the abnormal drought and shed leaves again during the regular dry season. Irrigation and an exceptional 70 mm rainfall during the mid‐dry season 1998/1999 caused bud break and flushing in all leafless trees except dormant stem succulents. The complex interactions between leaf age and water stress, the principal determinants of leaf abscission, were found to vary widely among trees of different functional types.     

Resprouting of saplings following a tropical rainforest fire in north‐east Queensland,Australia

Abstract In 2002, fire burnt areas of Mesophyll‐ and Notophyll Vine Forest in the Smithfield Conservation Park near Cairns, Australia. We assessed the ability of rainforest plant species to persist through fire via resprouting. Natural rates of mortality and resprouting in unburnt areas were assessed for all saplings (stems < 2 m) via 13, 2 × 50 m belt transects, and compared to estimates of mortality and resprouting in 26 transects in burnt areas. We also tested the resprouting ability per‐individual stem of each species against all other stems with which it co‐occurred. Totals of 1242 stems (138 species) were sampled in burnt transects and 503 stems (95 species) in unburnt transects (total number of unique species = 169). There was no difference in the number of stems existing prior to the fire in burnt and unburnt areas when expressed on a per‐sample area basis. Resprouting from basal shoots and root suckers was significantly greater in burnt than in unburnt areas, but rates of stem sprouting were not different. In burnt areas 72 species were tested for resprouting ability and most (65/72) resprouted at similar rates. All species analysed contained individuals that resprouted. The resprouting response of five species was significantly lower, and in two species was significantly higher. For these species especially, fire may act as a mechanism altering relative abundances. The fire coincided with an extreme El Niño event. Current predictions indicate El Niño conditions may become increasingly common, suggesting fire events within rainforest could become more frequent. Resprouting as a general phenomenon of rainforest species, and differential resprouting ability between species should therefore be an important consideration in assessing the potential path of vegetation change in rainforests after fire.     

Responses of an Australian freshwater turtle to drought‐flood cycles along a natural to urban gradient

Urban areas provide habitat for numerous native species, but life in towns and cities presents many challenges. The effect of climate on the ecology and the behaviour of non‐volant vertebrates inhabiting urban habitats have received little attention. In this study, we investigated demography, growth rates, movements and reproduction of a semi‐aquatic freshwater turtle, Chelodina longicollis, along a natural to urban gradient during a period of relatively high rainfall (2011–2014) and compared this to a previous study in the same system during drought (2006–2007). In addition to changes in rainfall, urbanization increased considerably over the same time period and a pest‐exclusion fence was constructed to mitigate against urban hazards encroaching on the adjacent reserve. Turtles grew at similar rates, had similar abundances and sex ratios and had similar reproductive output across the gradient from urban to non‐urban sites during the wet period. Despite increasing urbanization, recruitment occurred at all sites and survivorship estimates were similar among sites. Turtles moved among wetlands at high rates and over long distances (6 km), underscoring the importance of movements in urban landscapes. Our results contrast with those for the same system during drought, when turtles were less abundant and grew slower in the nature reserve compared with the urban environment. Our results underscore the strong influence climate can have on population dynamics and resilience of species to changes brought about by urbanization. Further monitoring is required to understand the long‐term population responses of long‐lived species to drought cycles.     

Climate as a driver of population variability in breeding Gentoo Penguins Pygoscelis papua at the Falkland Islands

Detecting and predicting how populations respond to environmental variability are eminent challenges in conservation research and management. This is particularly true for wildlife populations at high latitudes, many of which demonstrate changes in population dynamics associated with global warming. The Falkland Islands (Southwest Atlantic) hold one of the largest Gentoo Penguin Pygoscelis papua populations in the world, representing c. 34% of the global population. The numbers of breeding Gentoo Penguins at the Falkland Islands have shown a high degree of inter‐annual variability since monitoring commenced in 1990. However, proximate causes of annual variability in breeding numbers have not been explored. Here we examine 21 years of Gentoo Penguin breeding surveys from the Falkland Islands and assess whether inter‐annual variability in the number of breeding pairs were correlated with proxies of environmental variability. There was a positive correlation between the number of breeding pairs and a broad‐scale climatic variation index, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). In turn, the SOI was significantly correlated with spring sea surface temperature anomalies, indicating a more immediate atmospherically forced response to El Niño Southern Oscillation variability in the Southwest Atlantic than previously reported. However, we also describe a non‐linear response to environmental variability that may highlight foraging plasticity and/or the complexity of regional ecosystem interactions that operate across a range of different scales.     

Annual growth rings, rainfall-dependent growth and long-term growth patterns of tropical trees from the Caparo Forest Reserve in Venezuela

1 Tree-ring analyses and dendrometer measurements were carried out on 37 tree species in a semi-deciduous forest of the Reserva Forestal de Caparo, Venezuela, where the mean annual rainfall is about 1700 mm and there is a dry season from December to March. The main purposes of the investigation were to show the seasonality of cambial growth, and the connection between precipitation patterns and tree-ring curves. Long-term rates of wood increment were also estimated.
2 Cambial markings in consecutive years showed that annual rings were formed by many species.
3 The distinctiveness of growth zones was usually greater in deciduous species than in evergreen species, although not all deciduous species had distinct rings.
4 Dendrometer measurements showed that the annual growth rhythm was related to precipitation patterns. Evergreen species tended to show only a short interruption of wood growth (during the later part of the dry season), whereas deciduous species stopped growth completely at the end of the rainy season.
5 For deciduous species, regression analyses showed close relations between tree-ring width and the sum of precipitation outside the rainy seasons (i.e. November to April). Evergreen species reacted to the total annual amount of precipitation.
6 Variation in longest available ring chronology (for Terminalia guianensis ) showed little correlation with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation effect.
7 On average trees from natural forests showed relatively constant growth over the entire life span. Plantation trees grew fast up to an age of 15–20 years, but annual increments then decreased to values seen in natural forest trees.     

El Niño Southern Oscillation influences the abundance and movements of a marine top predator in coastal waters

Large‐scale climate modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence population dynamics in many species, including marine top predators. However, few quantitative studies have investigated the influence of large‐scale variability on resident marine top predator populations. We examined the effect of climate variability on the abundance and temporary emigration of a resident bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population off Bunbury, Western Australia (WA). This population has been studied intensively over six consecutive years (2007–2013), yielding a robust dataset that captures seasonal variations in both abundance and movement patterns. In WA, ENSO affects the strength of the Leeuwin Current (LC), the dominant oceanographic feature in the region. The strength and variability of the LC affects marine ecosystems and distribution of top predator prey. We investigated the relationship between dolphin abundance and ENSO, Southern Annular Mode, austral season, rainfall, sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature (SST). Linear models indicated that dolphin abundance was significantly affected by ENSO, and that the magnitude of the effect was dependent upon season. Dolphin abundance was lowest during winter 2009, when dolphins had high temporary emigration rates out of the study area. This coincided with the single El Niño event that occurred throughout the study period. Coupled with this event, there was a negative anomaly in SST and an above average rainfall. These conditions may have affected the distribution of dolphin prey, resulting in the temporary emigration of dolphins out of the study area in search of adequate prey. This study demonstrated the local effects of large‐scale climatic variations on the short‐term response of a resident, coastal delphinid species. With a projected global increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, resident marine top predators may not only have to contend with increasing coastal anthropogenic activities, but also have to adapt to large‐scale climatic changes.     

Climate–growth relationships of tropical tree species in West Africa and their potential for climate reconstruction

Most tropical regions are facing historical difficulties of generating biologically reconstructed long‐term climate records. Dendrochronology (tree‐ring studies) is a powerful tool to develop high‐resolution and exactly dated proxies for climate reconstruction. Owing to the seasonal variation in rainfall we expected the formation of annual tree rings in the wood of tropical West African tree species. In the central‐western part of Benin (upper Ouémé catchment, UOC) and in northeastern Ivory Coast (Comoé National Park, CNP) we investigated the relationship between climate (precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST)) and tree rings and show their potential for climate reconstruction. Wood samples of almost 200 trees belonging to six species in the UOC and CNP served to develop climate‐sensitive ring‐width chronologies using standard dendrochronological techniques. The relationship between local precipitation, monthly SST anomalies in the Gulf of Guinea, El Niño‐ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ring‐width indices was performed by simple regression analyses, two sample tests and cross‐spectral analysis. A low‐pass filter was used to highlight the decadal variability in rainfall of the UOC site. All tree species showed significant relationships with annual precipitation proving the existence of annual tree rings. ENSO signals could not be detected in the ring‐width patterns. For legume tree species at the UOC site significant relationships could be found between SST anomalies in the Gulf of Guinea indicating correlations at periods of 5.1–4.1 and 2.3 years. Our findings accurately show the relationship between tree growth, local precipitation and SST anomalies in the Gulf of Guinea possibly associated with worldwide SST patterns. A master chronology enabled the reconstruction of the annual precipitation in the UOC to the year 1840. Time series analysis suggest increasing arid conditions during the last 160 years which may have large impacts on the hydrological cycles and consequently on the ecosystem dynamics and the development of socio‐economic cultures and sectors in the Guinea‐Congolian/Sudanian region.     

Detecting long‐term growth trends using tree rings: a critical evaluation of methods

Tree‐ring analysis is often used to assess long‐term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth‐trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long‐term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here, we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: conservative detrending (CD) applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring widths with age; basal area correction (BAC) transforms diameter into basal area growth; regional curve standardization (RCS) detrends individual tree‐ring series using average age/size trends; and size class isolation (SCI) calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree‐ring data set of Melia azedarach, a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results – a growth decline over time – but the widely used CD method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth‐trend detection), reliability (100% minus probability of detecting false trends) and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (?6% and +6% change per decade) and weak trends (?2%, +2%). All methods except CD, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no‐trend scenarios. BAC showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth‐trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability analysis. Finally, we recommend SCI and RCS, as these methods showed highest reliability to detect long‐term growth trends.     

Seedling Mortality Due to Drought and Fire Associated with the 2002 El Niño Event in a Tropical Rain Forest in North‐East Queensland,Australia1

We monitored survival of seedlings in 216 1‐m² quadrats in lowland rain forest in tropical north Queensland between December 2001 and December 2002. During this time, the region experienced severe drought associated with an El Nińo Southern Oscillation event. The 2001 census recorded 124 species and 2912 individuals. In late November 2002 (2 wk prior to the second census), a low intensity fire passed through approximately half of the study site removing all evidence of seedlings from 110 plots. Only 482 (17%) individuals and 64 (52%) species recorded in 2001 survived the 12‐mo period. In 96 quadrats not affected by fire, mortality was high, but considerably variable between species. Six of the 20 most abundant species in 2001 experienced mortality rates higher than the community average and two of the most abundant species showed rates lower than average. Overall, conditions experienced during 2002 caused significant changes in the rank abundances of species between censuses. Mortality due to fire was less severe and mortality more uniform across species, resulting in significant concordance between pre and postfire rankings, once the effects of drought had been considered. Our results provide the first indication of how differences in survival after a perturbation predicted to become more frequent in future global climates may alter the size and species composition of the seedling bank in Australian tropical rain forests.     

Long‐term change within a Neotropical forest: assessing differential functional and floristic responses to disturbance and drought

Disentangling the relative roles of biotic and abiotic forces influencing forest structure, function, and local community composition continues to be an important goal in ecology. Here, utilizing two forest surveys 20‐year apart from a Central American dry tropical forest, we assess the relative role of past disturbance and local climatic change in the form of increased drought in driving forest dynamics. We observe: (i) a net decrease in the number of trees; (ii) a decrease in total forest biomass by 7.7 Mg ha^?1 but when calculated on subquadrat basis the biomass per unit area did not change indicating scale sensitivity of forest biomass measures; (iii) that the decrease in the number of stems occurred mainly in the smallest sizes, and in more moist and evergreen habitats; (iv) that there has been an increase in the proportion of trees that are deciduous, compound leaved and are canopy species, and a concomitant reduction in trees that are evergreen, simple‐leaved, and understory species. These changes are opposite to predictions based on recovery from disturbance, and have resulted in (v) a uniform multivariate shift from a more mesic to a more xeric forest. Together, our results show that over relatively short time scales, community composition and the functional dominance may be more responsive to climate change than recovery to past disturbances. Our findings point to the importance of assessing proportional changes in forest composition and not just changes in absolute numbers. Our findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that tropical tree species exhibit differential sensitivity to changes in precipitation. Predicted future decreases in rainfall may result in quick differential shifts in forest function, physiognomy, and species composition. Quantifying proportional functional composition offers a basis for a predictive framework for how the structure, and diversity of tropical forests will respond to global change.     

Linking El Niño,local rainfall,and migration timing in a tropical migratory species

Current climate models project changes in both temperature and precipitation patterns across the globe in the coming years. Migratory species, which move to take advantage of seasonal climate patterns, are likely to be affected by these changes, and indeed, a number of studies have shown a relationship between changing climate and the migration timing of various species. However, these studies have almost exclusively focused on the effects of temperature change on species that inhabit temperate zones. Here, we explore the relationship between rainfall and migration timing in a tropical species, Gecarcoidea natalis (Christmas Island red crab). We find that the timing of the annual crab breeding migration is closely related to the amount of rain that falls during a ‘migration window’ period prior to potential egg release dates, which is in turn related to the Southern Oscillation Index, an atmospheric El Niño‐ Southern Oscillation Index. As reproduction in this species is conditional on successful migration, major changes in migration patterns could have detrimental consequences for the survival of the species. This study serves to broaden our understanding of the effects of climate change on migratory species and will hopefully inspire future work on rainfall and tropical migrations.     

The Relationship between Red Cod, Pseudophycis Bachus, Recruitment and Environmental Variables in New Zealand

This paper examines the relationship between red cod, Pseudophycis bachus, recruitment and selected environmental variables. Commercial catch data of red cod were used as indices of relative recruitment strength for New Zealand fish stocks (east coast South Island, RCO 3; west coast South Island, RCO 7). Analysis of catch per unit effort (CPUE) supports the assumption that fluctuations in commercial catches reflect changes in abundance resulting from variable recruitment. Catch was assessed against 34 environmental variables that included the Southern Oscillation index, sea surface temperature, weather types, wind speed and direction, and river flows. Lagged correlations were calculated between annual commercial catch and averaged environmental data. Variables most strongly correlated with commercial catch were included in regression analyses. Regression models were calculated using all available data in its raw form, and after application of a logarithmic transformation. Robustness, and forecast skill was tested using a repeated leave-one-out procedure. The strongest correlations between commercial catch and explanatory variables for both RCO 3 and RCO 7 were consistently with sea surface temperature over a wide range of time lags followed by frequencies of southwest and northeast flow patterns. The correlations generally operated in the sense that colder is better: negative correlations (–0.75) with sea surface temperature, positive with the occurrence of cool southwest weather types, negative with the occurrence of warm northeast weather types. The maximum magnitude of the correlation occurs at 14-month lag for both fisheries, corresponding to the late spring/summer of the year prior to the catch year. There were often secondary maxima in the magnitude of the correlations two or three years prior to the catch year. The commercial fishery is made up largely of two and three-year-old fish, implying that juvenile fish (age one year) are most sensitive to environmental conditions, but egg, embryo and larva periods may also be affected. Regression analyses suggest that two-predictor regressions were unstable, with often large decreases in explained variance when applied to the independent years, however, at the lags when relationships are strongest (around 14 months), the explained variance on the left-out years remains high. Fluctuations in red cod landings are dependent on sea surface temperature, controlled largely by climatic variability, including El Niño and La Niña events. For short-lived species such as red cod, fluctuations in annual landings are commonplace and analyses of environmental data may be useful in predicting catches in subsequent years.     

Multi‐century tree‐ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment

Climate‐related environmental and humanitarian crisis are important challenges in the Great Horn of Africa (GHA). In the absence of long‐term past climate records in the region, tree‐rings are valuable climate proxies, reflecting past climate variations and complementing climate records prior to the instrumental era. We established annually resolved multi‐century tree‐ring chronology from Juniperus procera trees in northern Ethiopia, the longest series yet for the GHA. The chronology correlates significantly with wet‐season (r = .64, p < .01) and annual (r = .68, p < .01) regional rainfall. Reconstructed rainfall since A.D. 1811 revealed significant interannual variations between 2.2 and 3.8 year periodicity, with significant decadal and multidecadal variations during 1855–1900 and 1960–1990. The duration of negative and positive rainfall anomalies varied between 1–7 years and 1–8 years. Approximately 78.4% (95%) of reconstructed dry (extreme dry) and 85.4% (95%) of wet (extreme wet) events lasted for 1 year only and corresponded to historical records of famine and flooding, suggesting that future climate change studies should be both trend and extreme event focused. The average return periods for dry (extreme dry) and wet (extreme wet) events were 4.1 (8.8) years and 4.1 (9.5) years. Extreme‐dry conditions during the 19th century were concurrent with drought episodes in equatorial eastern Africa that occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age. El Niño and La Niña events matched with 38.5% and 50% of extreme‐dry and extreme‐wet events. Equivalent matches for positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events were weaker, reaching 23.1 and 25%, respectively. Spatial correlations revealed that reconstructed rainfall represents wet‐season rainfall variations over northern Ethiopia and large parts of the Sahel belt. The data presented are useful for backcasting climate and hydrological models and for developing regional strategic plans to manage scarce and contested water resources. Historical perspectives on long‐term regional rainfall variability improve the interpretation of recent climate trends.     

Evidence for climate‐driven synchrony of marine and terrestrial ecosystems in northwest Australia

The effects of climate change are difficult to predict for many marine species because little is known of their response to climate variations in the past. However, long‐term chronologies of growth, a variable that integrates multiple physical and biological factors, are now available for several marine taxa. These allow us to search for climate‐driven synchrony in growth across multiple taxa and ecosystems, identifying the key processes driving biological responses at very large spatial scales. We hypothesized that in northwest (NW) Australia, a region that is predicted to be strongly influenced by climate change, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon would be an important factor influencing the growth patterns of organisms in both marine and terrestrial environments. To test this idea, we analyzed existing growth chronologies of the marine fish Lutjanus argentimaculatus, the coral Porites spp. and the tree Callitris columellaris and developed a new chronology for another marine fish, Lethrinus nebulosus. Principal components analysis and linear model selection showed evidence of ENSO‐driven synchrony in growth among all four taxa at interannual time scales, the first such result for the Southern Hemisphere. Rainfall, sea surface temperatures, and sea surface salinities, which are linked to the ENSO system, influenced the annual growth of fishes, trees, and corals. All four taxa had negative relationships with the Niño‐4 index (a measure of ENSO status), with positive growth patterns occurring during strong La Niña years. This finding implies that future changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are likely to have major consequences for both marine and terrestrial taxa. Strong similarities in the growth patterns of fish and trees offer the possibility of using tree‐ring chronologies, which span longer time periods than those of fish, to aid understanding of both historical and future responses of fish populations to climate variation.