Is there evidence for a shift in fish growth and recruitment success linked to climate change?

This study investigated whether a putative shift in climate regime in the North Atlantic in the 1990s coincided with changes in the growth and recruitment of roach Rutilus rutilus in the north-east of England. The relationships between R. rutilus growth and recruitment and the environment were significantly different before and after the putative shift in climate regime. Water temperature, river discharge, growth, recruitment success and the Gulf Stream Index co-varied until the late 1990s, indicating a gradual progression between periods of warm-and-dry and cold-and-wet summers. Since the late 1990s, there has been an increased prevalence of warm-and-wet summers, and recruitment success has oscillated between extremes on an almost annual basis. The north wall (northern boundary) of the Gulf Stream has been undergoing a displacement south since the late 1990s, and the speed and amplitude of the change appears to support the hypothesis that there was a regime shift in the climate of the North Atlantic Ocean. It is possible that a continued displacement south of the north wall of the Gulf Stream will lead to further increases in river discharge, reductions in water temperature and reduced fish growth and recruitment success in the long term.     

Are comparative studies of extinction risk useful for conservation?

Large-scale, comparative studies of species extinction risk have become common in conservation science, but their influence on conservation practice appears limited. The link between such studies and the practice of conservation breaks down in two key places. First, results of comparative studies are often ambiguous, inconsistent and difficult to translate into policy. Second, conservation as currently practiced emphasizes the rescue and protection of currently threatened biodiversity, whereas comparative studies are often better suited to a proactive approach that anticipates and prevents future species declines. Scientists should make their research more accessible by addressing the first issue. Policymakers and managers, in turn, could make better use of comparative studies by moving towards more preventative approaches to conservation planning.     

Climate change and plant invasions: restoration opportunities ahead?

Rather than simply enhancing invasion risk, climate change may also reduce invasive plant competitiveness if conditions become climatically unsuitable. Using bioclimatic envelope modeling, we show that climate change could result in both range expansion and contraction for five widespread and dominant invasive plants in the western United States. Yellow starthistle ( Centaurea solstitialis ) and tamarisk ( Tamarix spp.) are likely to expand with climate change. Cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) and spotted knapweed ( Centaurea biebersteinii ) are likely to shift in range, leading to both expansion and contraction. Leafy spurge ( Euphorbia esula ) is likely to contract. The retreat of once-intractable invasive species could create restoration opportunities across millions of hectares. Identifying and establishing native or novel species in places where invasive species contract will pose a considerable challenge for ecologists and land managers. This challenge must be addressed before other undesirable species invade and eliminate restoration opportunities.     

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups.     

Climate change – Bad news for montane forest herb layer species?

Global warming presents a threat to plant species distributed at montane or alpine altitudes if the topography does not allow upward shifts in distribution ranges. Nevertheless, the species might also benefit from increasing temperatures and secondary effects on dominant species (e.g. bark beetle outbreaks or summer drought affecting the canopy species). As a consequence, disturbance frequency in montane forests might increase and light availability for herb layer species will increase. We addressed these interactions in a common garden experiment in Central Germany at different altitudes, representing cold and moist vs. warm and dry conditions. We investigated three montane species with different life forms, including a herb (Trientalis europaea), a grass (Calamagrostis villosa) and a dwarf shrub (Vaccinium myrtillus) under three shading treatments (3%, 28% and 86% of full sunlight). We hypothesized that montane species are at a disadvantage in the lowland, with the dwarf shrub suffering more than the grass. Furthermore, we hypothesized an antagonistic interaction of increased temperature and increased light conditions. While T. europaea and V. myrtillus showed only slightly responses to low altitude conditions, C. villosa displayed a nearly fifteen fold increase in biomass production, despite higher observed herbivory levels in the lowland. We failed to show an antagonistic effect of increased temperature and increased light availability, as all study species suffered from deep shade conditions and grew best under full light conditions at both sites. In conclusion, both improved temperature and light conditions might be principally beneficial for the investigated boreal species, in particular for the grass species C. villosa.     

Persistence and extinction of population in reaction–diffusion–advection model with strong Allee effect growth

Journal of Mathematical Biology - A reaction–diffusion–advection equation with strong Allee effect growth rate is proposed to model a single species stream population in a...     

Climate change and coral reefs: Trojan horse or false prophecy?

Maynard et al. (Coral Reefs 27:745–749, 2008a) claim that much of the concern about the impacts of climate change on coral reefs has been “based on essentially untested assumptions regarding reefs and their capacity to cope with future climate change”. If correct, this claim has important implications for whether or not climate change represents the largest long-term threat to the sustainability of coral reefs, especially given their ad hominem argument that many coral reef scientists are guilty of “popularising worst-case scenarios” at the expense of truth. This article looks critically at the claims made by Maynard et al. (Coral Reefs 27:745–749, 2008a) and comes to a very different conclusion, with the thrust and veracity of their argument being called into question. Contrary to the fears of Grigg (Coral Reefs 11:183–186, 1992), who originally made reference to the Cassandra syndrome due to his concern about the sensationalisation of science, the proposition that coral reefs face enormous challenges from climate change and ocean acidification has and is being established through “careful experimentation, long-term monitoring and objective interpretation”. While this is reassuring, coral reef ecosystems continue to face major challenges from ocean warming and acidification. Given this, it is an imperative that scientists continue to maintain the rigour of their research and to communicate their conclusions as widely and clearly as possible. Given the shortage of time and the magnitude of the problem, there is little time to spare.     

What Are Punishment and Reputation for?

Why did punishment and the use of reputation evolve in humans? According to one family of theories, they evolved to support the maintenance of cooperative group norms; according to another, they evolved to enhance personal gains from cooperation. Current behavioral data are consistent with both hypotheses (and both selection pressures could have shaped human cooperative psychology). However, these hypotheses lead to sharply divergent behavioral predictions in circumstances that have not yet been tested. Here we report results testing these rival predictions. In every test where social exchange theory and group norm maintenance theory made different predictions, subject behavior violated the predictions of group norm maintenance theory and matched those of social exchange theory. Subjects do not direct punishment toward those with reputations for norm violation per se; instead, they use reputation self-beneficially, as a cue to lower the risk that they personally will experience losses from defection. More tellingly, subjects direct their cooperative efforts preferentially towards defectors they have punished and away from those they haven’t punished; they avoid expending punitive effort on reforming defectors who only pose a risk to others. These results are not consistent with the hypothesis that the psychology of punishment evolved to uphold group norms. The circumstances in which punishment is deployed and withheld–its circuit logic–support the hypothesis that it is generated by psychological mechanisms that evolved to benefit the punisher, by allowing him to bargain for better treatment.     

Is the future female for turtles? Climate change and wetland configuration predict sex ratios of a freshwater species

Climate change and land-use change are leading drivers of biodiversity decline, affecting demographic parameters that are important for population persistence. For example, scientists have speculated for decades that climate change may skew adult sex ratios in taxa that express temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), but limited evidence exists that this phenomenon is occurring in natural settings. For species that are vulnerable to anthropogenic land-use practices, differential mortality among sexes may also skew sex ratios. We sampled the spotted turtle (Clemmys guttata), a freshwater species with TSD, across a large portion of its geographic range (Florida to Maine), to assess the environmental factors influencing adult sex ratios. We present evidence that suggests recent climate change has potentially skewed the adult sex ratio of spotted turtles, with samples following a pattern of increased proportions of females concomitant with warming trends, but only within the warmer areas sampled. At intermediate temperatures, there was no relationship with climate, while in the cooler areas we found the opposite pattern, with samples becoming more male biased with increasing temperatures. These patterns might be explained in part by variation in relative adaptive capacity via phenotypic plasticity in nest site selection. Our findings also suggest that spotted turtles have a context-dependent and multi-scale relationship with land use. We observed a negative relationship between male proportion and the amount of crop cover (within 300 m) when wetlands were less spatially aggregated. However, when wetlands were aggregated, sex ratios remained consistent. This pattern may reflect sex-specific patterns in movement that render males more vulnerable to mortality from agricultural machinery and other threats. Our findings highlight the complexity of species' responses to both climate change and land use, and emphasize the role that landscape structure can play in shaping wildlife population demographics.     

Are brood sex ratios adaptive?—The effect of experimentally altered brood sex ratio on nestling growth,mortality and recruitment

Brood sex ratios (BSRs) have often been found to be nonrandom in respect of parental and environmental quality, and many hypotheses suggest that nonrandom sex ratios can be adaptive. To specifically test the adaptive value of biased BSRs, it is crucial to disentangle the consequences of BSR and maternal effects. In multiparous species, this requires cross-fostering experiments where foster parents rear offspring originating from multiple broods, and where the interactive effect of original and manipulated BSR on fitness components is tested. To our knowledge, our study on collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) is the first that meets these requirements. In this species, where BSRs had previously been shown to be related to parental characteristics, we altered the original BSR of the parents shortly after hatching by cross-fostering nestlings among trios of broods and examined the effects on growth, mortality and recruitment of the nestlings. We found that original and experimental BSR, as well as the interaction of the two, were unrelated to the fitness components considered. Nestling growth was related only to background variables, namely brood size and hatching rank. Nestling mortality was related only to hatching asynchrony. Our results therefore do not support that the observed BSRs are adaptive in our study population. However, we cannot exclude the possibility of direct effects of experimentally altered BSRs on parental fitness, which should be evaluated in the future. In addition, studies similar to ours are required on various species to get a clearer picture of the adaptive value of nonrandom BSRs.     

Are certain life histories particularly prone to local extinction?

Using stochastic simulations and elasticity analysis, we show that there are inherent differences in the risk of extinction between life histories with different demographies. Which life history is the most vulnerable depends on which vital rate varies. When juvenile survival varies semelparous organisms with delayed reproduction are the most vulnerable ones, while a varying developmental rate puts a greater threat to semelparous organisms with rapid development. Iteroparous organisms are the most vulnerable ones when adult survival varies. Generally, we do not expect to observe organisms in nature having variation in vital rates that produce a high risk of extinction. Given the results here we therefore predict that iteroparous organisms should show low variation in adult survival. Moreover, we predict that semelparous organisms should show low variation in juvenile survival and low variation in developmental rate. The effect of temporal correlation on extinction risk is most pronounced in organisms with semelparous life histories.     

Prolonged clonal growth: escape route or route to extinction?

Many plant species have the capability to reproduce sexually as well as clonally. The balance between clonal reproduction and sexual reproduction varies between different species. It was estimated that 66.5% of all central European flora may form independent but genetically identical daughter plants. Also within species there is great variation in the ratio clonal/sexual reproduction. Clonal reproduction can be considered as an alternative life cycle loop that allows persistence of a species in the absence of the ability to complete the normal life cycle (i.e. seed production, germination and recruitment). Plant populations exhibiting prolonged clonal growth have been referred to as 'remnant populations'. A remnant population in general is defined as "a population capable of persistence during extended time periods despite a negative population growth rate (λ<1) due to longlived life stages and life cycles, including loops, that allow population persistence without completion of the whole life cycle". Here we argue that prolonged and nearly exclusive clonal growth through environmental suppression of sexual reproduction can ultimately lead to local sexual extinction and to monoclonal populations of a species, and that this may imply significant consequences for population viability. Especially obligate or mainly outcrossing clonal plant species may be vulnerable for sexual extinction. We argue that the consequences of reduced sexual recruitment in clonally propagating plants may be understudied and underestimated and that a re-evaluation of current ideas on clonality may be necessary.     

Statistical indicators and state–space population models predict extinction in a population of bobwhite quail

Early warning systems of extinction thresholds have been developed for and tested in microcosm experiments, but have not been applied to populations of wild animals. We used state–space population models and a statistical indicator to detect a transcritical bifurcation extinction threshold in a population of bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus) located in an agricultural region experiencing habitat deterioration and loss. The extinction threshold was detectible using two independent data sets. We compared predictions from state–space population models to predictions from a statistical indicator and found that predictions were corroborated. Using state–space population models, we estimated that our study population crossed the extinction threshold in 2010 (2002–2036; 95 % confidence intervals [CI]) using the whistle count (WC) data set and in 2008 (1999–2064; 95 % CI) using the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. With the statistical indicator, we estimated that the extinction threshold will be crossed in 2018 (2004–2031; 95 % CI) using the WC data and will be crossed in 2012 (2006–2018; 95 % CI) using the BBS data. We expect extinction in our study population soon after crossing the extinction threshold, but the time to extinction and potential reversibility of the threshold are unknown. Our results suggest that neither small nor decreasing population size will warn of the transcritical bifurcation extinction threshold. We suggest that managers of wildlife populations in regions experiencing land use change should try to predict extinction thresholds and make management decisions to ensure the persistence of the species.     

Climate change: is the dark Soay sheep endangered?

It was recently reported that the proportion of dark-coloured Soay sheep (Ovis aries) in the Hebrides has decreased, despite the fact that dark sheep tend to be larger than lighter sheep, and there exists a selective advantage to large body size. It was concluded that an apparent genetic linkage between loci for the coat colour polymorphism and loci with antagonistic effects on body size explained the decrease. Those results explain why the proportion of dark animals is not increasing, but not why it is decreasing. Between 1985 and 2005 there was a significant increase in mean ambient temperature near the islands. We suggest that, while in the past a dark coat has offset the metabolic costs of thermoregulation by absorbing solar radiation, the selective advantage of a dark coat may be waning as the climate warms in the North Atlantic. In parallel, Bergman''s rule may be operating, reducing the selective advantage of large body size in the cold. Either or both of these mechanisms can explain the decrease in the proportion of dark-coloured larger sheep in this population in which smaller (and light-coloured) sheep should be favoured by their lower gross energy demand. If environmental effects are the cause of the decline, then we can expect the proportion of dark-coloured Soay sheep to decrease further.