Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050

Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator–prey overlap in 2050 under the “business‐as‐usual, worst‐case” climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black‐legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth‐averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator–prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator–prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator–prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade‐offs in decisions involving issues of large‐scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial fishing, and large‐scale marine renewable developments.     

Habitat heterogeneity and mammalian predator–prey interactions

• 1 In predator–prey theory, habitat heterogeneity can affect the relationship between kill rates and prey or predator density through its effect on the predator's ability to search for, encounter, kill and consume its prey. Many studies of predator–prey interactions include the effect of spatial heterogeneity, but these are mostly based on species with restricted mobility or conducted in experimental settings.
• 2 Here, we aim to identify the patterns through which spatial heterogeneity affects predator–prey dynamics and to review the literature on the effect of spatial heterogeneity on predator–prey interactions in terrestrial mammalian systems, i.e. in freely moving species with high mobility, in non‐experimental settings. We also review current methodologies that allow the study of the predation process within a spatial context.
• 3 When the functional response includes the effect of spatial heterogeneity, it usually takes the form of predator‐dependent or ratio‐dependent models and has wide applicability.
• 4 The analysis of the predation process through its different stages may further contribute towards identifying the spatial scale of interest and the specific spatial mechanism affecting predator–prey interactions.
• 5 Analyzing the predation process based on the functional response theory, but separating the stages of predation and applying a multiscale approach, is likely to increase our insight into how spatial heterogeneity affects predator–prey dynamics. This may increase our ability to forecast the consequences of landscape transformations on predator–prey dynamics.

     

Using a new framework of two-phase generalized additive models to incorporate prey abundance in spatial distribution models of juvenile slender lizardfish in Haizhou Bay,China

The predictive skill of species distribution models depends on the quality and quantity of input information. In addition to the physical environmental variables, prey availability is also one of the main drivers regulating spatial distribution of marine species. However, prey distribution data have rarely been considered in habitat models due to the lack of information on non-commercial prey species. This may lead to an incomplete view of species distributions and biased model predictions. In this study, we developed a new framework of two-phase generalized additive models (GAMs) based on the Tweedie distribution to incorporate the predicted prey abundance as covariates in habitat models, and applied this framework to juvenile slender lizardfish Saurida elongata in Haizhou Bay, China. This study demonstrated that the predictive skill of habitat models could be greatly improved through incorporating prey abundance as explanatory variables. The importance of prey distribution data in the habitat model confirms the essentiality of including prey data while modelling species distribution. Spatial overlap and GAM analysis demonstrated that not all dominant prey can be selected as potential explanatory variables and only those prey species showing high spatiotemporal occurrences with predators should be incorporated. The framework derived in this study could be extended to other marine organisms to improve the predictive skill of habitat models and enhance our understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying the distribution of marine species.     

Marine reserves indirectly affect fine‐scale habitat associations,but not overall densities,of small benthic fishes

Many large, fishery‐targeted predatory species have attained very high relative densities as a direct result of protection by no‐take marine reserves. Indirect effects, via interactions with targeted species, may also occur for species that are not themselves targeted by fishing. In some temperate rocky reef ecosystems, indirect effects have caused profound changes in community structure, notably the restoration of predator–urchin–macroalgae trophic cascades. Yet, indirect effects on small benthic reef fishes remain poorly understood, perhaps because of behavioral associations with complex, refuge‐providing habitats. Few, if any, studies have evaluated any potential effects of marine reserves on habitat associations in small benthic fishes. We surveyed densities of small benthic fishes, including some endemic species of triplefin (Tripterygiidae), along with fine‐scale habitat features in kelp forests on rocky reefs in and around multiple marine reserves in northern New Zealand over 3 years. Bayesian generalized linear mixed models were used to evaluate evidence for (1) main effects of marine reserve protection, (2) associations with habitat gradients, including complexity, and (3) differences in habitat associations inside versus outside reserves. No evidence of overall main effects of marine reserves on species richness or densities of fishes was found. Both richness and densities showed strong associations with gradients in habitat features, particularly habitat complexity. In addition, some species exhibited reserve‐by‐habitat interactions, having different associations with habitat gradients inside versus outside marine reserves. Two species (Ruanoho whero and Forsterygion flavonigrum) showed stronger positive associations with habitat complexity inside reserves. These results are consistent with the presence of a behavioral risk effect, whereby prey fishes are more strongly attracted to habitats that provide refuge from predation in areas where predators are more abundant. This work highlights the importance of habitat structure and the potential for fishing to affect behavioral interactions and the interspecific dynamic attributes of community structure beyond simple predator–prey consumption and archetypal trophic cascades.     

A spatial theory for emergent multiple predator–prey interactions in food webs

Predator–prey interaction is inherently spatial because animals move through landscapes to search for and consume food resources and to avoid being consumed by other species. The spatial nature of species interactions necessitates integrating spatial processes into food web theory and evaluating how predators combine to impact their prey. Here, we present a spatial modeling approach that examines emergent multiple predator effects on prey within landscapes. The modeling is inspired by the habitat domain concept derived from empirical synthesis of spatial movement and interactions studies. Because these principles are motivated by synthesis of short‐term experiments, it remains uncertain whether spatial contingency principles hold in dynamical systems. We address this uncertainty by formulating dynamical systems models, guided by core habitat domain principles, to examine long‐term multiple predator–prey spatial dynamics. To describe habitat domains, we use classical niche concepts describing resource utilization distributions, and assume species interactions emerge from the degree of overlap between species. The analytical results generally align with those from empirical synthesis and present a theoretical framework capable of demonstrating multiple predator effects that does not depend on the small spatial or temporal scales typical of mesocosm experiments, and help bridge between empirical experiments and long‐term dynamics in natural systems.     

Differences in predator composition alter the direction of structure‐mediated predation risk in macrophyte communities

Structural complexity strongly influences the outcome of predator–prey interactions in benthic marine communities affecting both prey concealment and predator hunting efficacy. How habitat structure interacts with species‐specific differences in predatory style and antipredatory strategies may therefore be critical in determining higher trophic functions. We examined the role of structural complexity in mediating predator–prey interactions across several macrophyte habitats along a gradient of structural complexity in three different bioregions: western Mediterranean Sea (WMS), eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) and northern Gulf of Mexico (NGM). Using sea urchins as model prey, we measured survival rates of small (juveniles) and medium (young adults) size classes in different habitat zones: within the macrophyte habitat, along the edge and in bare sandy spaces. At each site we also measured structural variables and predator abundance. Generalised linear models identified biomass and predatory fish abundance as the main determinants of predation intensity but the efficiency of predation was also influenced by urchin size class. Interestingly though, the direction of structure‐mediated effects on predation risk was markedly different between habitats and bioregions. In WMS and NGM, where predation by roving fish was relatively high, structure served as a critical prey refuge, particularly for juvenile urchins. In contrast, in EIO, where roving fish predation was low, predation was generally higher inside structurally complex environments where sea stars were responsible for much of the predation. Larger prey were generally less affected by predation in all habitats, probably due to the absence of large predators. Overall, our results indicate that, while the structural complexity of habitats is critical in mediating predator–prey interactions, the direction of this mediation is strongly influenced by differences in predator composition. Whether the regional pool of predators is dominated by visual roving species or chemotactic benthic predators may determine if structure dampens or enhances the influence of top–down control in marine macrophyte communities.     

Density‐dependent and ‐independent effects on the joint use of space by predators and prey in terrestrial arthropod food‐webs

The spatial distribution of predators and their prey is affected by their joint use of space. While the formation of such spatial patterns may be driven by density‐dependent and ‐independent factors our knowledge on the contribution of different land‐use activities on the formation of spatial patterns between predators and prey remains very limited. Agriculture is one of the most prevailing land‐use activities with strong effects on invertebrate densities and structural habitat conditions. Here, we used replicated conventionally and organically managed winter wheat fields to investigate the effects of agricultural land‐use on the spatial patterns of generalist predators and decomposer prey. We then identified the explanatory power of density‐dependent (prey and predator activity density) and density‐independent (vegetation structure) predictors for the observed spatial patterns. Generalist predators were regularly distributed only in conventionally managed fields and this pattern intensified with decreasing Collembola prey availability and increasing spider activity density. Segregation between carabid and spider predators was strongest in fields with lowest wheat plant height, suggesting more intense intraguild interactions in structurally less complex habitats. Collembola were aggregated independent of management and aggregation was strongest in fields with highest Collembola and carabid activity density. Spiders and Collembola prey were associated, but higher aphid densities under conventional management weakened or interrupted this spatial relationship. We conclude that active control of crop plant physiognomy by growth hormones and herbicides in conventionally managed fields promotes predator–predator segregation and that a high availability of aphid prey seems to decouple predator–Collembola prey associations. Our results emphasise the need for a more mechanistic understanding of the effects of land‐use on the formation of spatial patterns and species interactions, especially under scenarios of environmental change and an ongoing loss of biodiversity.     

Evaluating the effects of large marine predators on mobile prey behavior across subtropical reef ecosystems

The indirect effect of predators on prey behavior, recruitment, and spatial relationships continues to attract considerable attention. However, top predators like sharks or large, mobile teleosts, which can have substantial top–down effects in ecosystems, are often difficult to study due to their large size and mobility. This has created a knowledge gap in understanding how they affect their prey through nonconsumptive effects. Here, we investigated how different functional groups of predators affected potential prey fish populations across various habitats within Biscayne Bay, FL. Using baited remote underwater videos (BRUVs), we quantified predator abundance and activity as a rough proxy for predation risk and analyzed key prey behaviors across coral reef, sea fan, seagrass, and sandy habitats. Both predator abundance and prey arrival times to the bait were strongly influenced by habitat type, with open homogenous habitats receiving faster arrival times by prey. Other prey behaviors, such as residency and risk‐associated behaviors, were potentially driven by predator interaction. Our data suggest that small predators across functional groups do not have large controlling effects on prey behavior or stress responses over short temporal scales; however, habitats where predators are more unpredictable in their occurrence (i.e., open areas) may trigger risk‐associated behaviors such as avoidance and vigilance. Our data shed new light on the importance of habitat and context for understanding how marine predators may influence prey behaviors in marine ecosystems.     

Trait‐mediated indirect interactions in a marine intertidal system as quantified by functional responses

Studies of trait‐mediated indirect interactions (TMIIs) typically focus on effects higher predators have on per capita consumption by intermediate consumers of a third, basal prey resource. TMIIs are usually evidenced by changes in feeding rates of intermediate consumers and/or differences in densities of this third species. However, understanding and predicting effects of TMIIs on population stability of such basal species requires examination of the type and magnitude of the functional responses exhibited towards them. Here, in a marine intertidal system consisting of a higher‐order fish predator, the shanny Lipophrys pholis, an intermediate predator, the amphipod Echinogammarus marinus, and a basal prey resource, the isopod Jaera nordmanni, we detected TMIIs, demonstrating the importance of habitat complexity in such interactions, by deriving functional responses and exploring consequences for prey population stability. Echinogammarus marinus reacted to fish predator diet cues by reducing activity, a typical anti‐predator response, but did not alter habitat use. Basal prey, Jaera nordmanni, did not respond to fish diet cues with respect to activity, distribution or aggregation behaviour. Echinogammarus marinus exhibited type II functional responses towards J. nordmanni in simple habitat, but type III functional responses in complex habitat. However, while predator cue decreased the magnitude of the type II functional response in simple habitat, it increased the magnitude of the type III functional response in complex habitat. These findings indicate that, in simple habitats, TMIIs may drive down consumption rates within type II responses, however, this interaction may remain de‐stabilising for prey populations. Conversely, in complex habitats, TMIIs may strengthen regulatory influences of intermediate consumers on prey populations, whilst potentially maintaining prey population stability. We thus highlight that TMIIs can have unexpected and complex ramifications throughout communities, but can be unravelled by considering effects on intermediate predator functional response types and magnitudes. Synthesis Higher‐order predators and habitat complexity can influence behaviour of intermediate species, affecting their consumption of prey through trait‐mediated indirect interactions (TMIIs). However, it is not clear how these factors interact to determine prey population stability. Using functional responses (FRs), relating predator consumption to prey density, we detected TMIIs in a marine system. In simple habitats, TMIIs reduced consumption rates, but FRs remained de‐stabilising for prey populations. In complex habitats, TMIIs strengthened prey regulation with population stabilizing FRs. We thus demonstrate that FRs can assess interactions of environmental and biological cues that result in complex and unexpected outcomes for prey populations.     

The nest predator community of grassland birds responds to agroecosystem habitat at multiple scales

Nest predation is the leading cause of reproductive failure for grassland birds of conservation concern. Understanding variation in nest predation rates is complicated by the diverse assemblage of species known to prey on nests. As part of a long‐term study of grassland bird ecology, we monitored populations of predators known to prey on grassland bird nests. We used information theoretic approach to examine the predator community's association with habitat at multiple scales, including local vegetation structure of grassland patches, spatial attributes of grassland patches (size and shape), and landscape composition surrounding grassland patches (land cover within 400 and 1600 m). Our results confirmed that nest predators respond to habitat at multiple scales and different predator species respond to habitat in different ways. The most informative habitat models we selected included variability in local vegetation (CV in the density of forbs), local patch (area and edge‐to‐interior ratio), and landscape within a 1600 m buffer around grasslands (percent of land covered by human structures and development). As a separate question, we asked if models that incorporated information from multiple scales simultaneously might improve the ability to explain variation in the predator community. Multi‐ scale models were not consistently superior to models derived from variables focused at a single spatial scale. Our results suggest that minimizing human development on and surrounding conservation land and the management of the vegetation structure on grassland fragments both may benefit grassland birds by decreasing the risk of nest predation.     

Can we disentangle predator–prey interactions from species distributions at a macro‐scale? A case study with a raptor species

There is a debate on whether an influence of biotic interactions on species distributions can be reflected at macro‐scale levels. Whereas the influence of biotic interactions on spatial arrangements is beginning to be studied at local scales, similar studies at macro‐scale levels are scarce. There is no example disentangling, from other similarities with related species, the influence of predator–prey interactions on species distributions at macro‐scale levels. In this study we aimed to disentangle predator–prey interactions from species distribution data following an experimental approach including a factorial design. As a case of study we selected the short‐toed eagle because of its known specialization on certain prey reptiles. We used presence–absence data at a 100 km2 spatial resolution to extract the explanatory capacity of different environmental predictors (five abiotic and two biotic predictors) on the short‐toed eagle species distribution in peninsular Spain. Abiotic predictors were relevant climatic and topographic variables, and relevant biotic predictors were prey richness and forest density. In addition to the short‐toed eagle, we also obtained the predictor's explanatory capacities for 1) species of the same family Accipitridae (as a reference), 2) for other birds of different families (as controls) and 3) artificial species with randomly selected presences (as null models). We run 650 models to test for similarities of the short‐toed eagle, controls and null models with reference species, assessed by regressions of explanatory capacities. We found higher similarities between the short‐toed eagle and other species of the family Accipitridae than for the other two groups. Once corrected by the family effect, our analyses revealed a signal of predator–prey interaction embedded in species distribution data. This result was corroborated with additional analyses testing for differences in the concordance between the distributions of different bird categories and the distributions of either prey or non‐prey species of the short‐toed eagle. Our analyses were useful to disentangle a signal of predator–prey interactions from species distribution data at a macro‐scale. This study highlights the importance of disentangling specific features from the variation shared with a given taxonomic level.     

Inside‐container effects drive mosquito community structure in Brazilian Atlantic forest

Metacommunity theory is a convenient framework in which to investigate how local communities linked by dispersal influence patterns of species distribution and abundance across large spatial scales. For organisms with complex life cycles, such as mosquitoes, different pressures are expected to act on communities due to behavioral and ecological partitioning of life stages. Adult females select habitats for oviposition, and resulting offspring are confined to that habitat until reaching adult stages capable of flight; outside‐container effects (OCE) (i.e., spatial factors) are thus expected to act more strongly on species distributions as a function of adult dispersal capability, which should be limited by geographic distances between sites. However, larval community dynamics within a habitat are influenced by inside‐container effects (ICE), mainly interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics (e.g., through effects of competition and predation). We used a field experiment in a mainland‐island scenario to assess whether environmental, spatial, and temporal factors influence mosquito prey and predator distributions and abundances across spatial scales: within‐site, between‐site, and mainland‐island. We also evaluated whether predator abundances inside containers play a stronger role in shaping mosquito prey community structure than do OCE (e.g., spatial and environmental factors). Temporal influence was more important for predators than for prey mosquito community structure, and the changes in prey mosquito species composition over time appear to be driven by changes in predator abundances. There was a negligible effect of spatial and environmental factors on mosquito community structure, and temporal effects on mosquito abundances and distributions appear to be driven by changes in abundance of the dominant predator, perhaps because ICE are stronger than OCE due to larval habitat restriction, or because adult dispersal is not limited at the chosen spatial scales.     

Habitat-dependent foraging in a classic predator–prey system: a fable from snowshoe hares

Current research contrasting prey habitat use has documented, with virtual unanimity, habitat differences in predation risk. Relatively few studies have considered, either in theory or in practice, simultaneous patterns in prey density. Linear predator–prey models predict that prey habitat preferences should switch toward the safer habitat with increasing prey and predator densities. The density‐dependent preference can be revealed by regression of prey density in safe habitat versus that in the riskier one (the isodar). But at this scale, the predation risk can be revealed only with simultaneous estimates of the number of predators, or with their experimental removal. Theories of optimal foraging demonstrate that we can measure predation risk by giving‐up densities of resource in foraging patches. The foraging theory cannot yet predict the expected pattern as predator and prey populations covary. Both problems are solved by measuring isodars and giving‐up densities in the same predator–prey system. I applied the two approaches to the classic predator–prey dynamics of snowshoe hares in northwestern Ontario, Canada. Hares occupied regenerating cutovers and adjacent mature‐forest habitat equally, and in a manner consistent with density‐dependent habitat selection. Independent measures of predation risk based on experimental, as well as natural, giving‐up densities agreed generally with the equal preference between habitats revealed by the isodar. There was no apparent difference in predation risk between habitats despite obvious differences in physical structure. Complementary studies contrasting a pair of habitats with more extreme differences confirmed that hares do alter their giving‐up densities when one habitat is clearly superior to another. The results are thereby consistent with theories of adaptive behaviour. But the results also demonstrate, when evaluating differences in habitat, that it is crucial to let the organisms we study define their own habitat preference.     

Plankton blooms and patchiness generated by heterogeneous physical environments

Microscopic turbulent motions of water have been shown to influence the dynamics of microscopic species living in that habitat. The number, stability, and excitability of stationary states in a predator–prey model of plankton species can therefore change when the strength of turbulent motions varies. In a spatial system these microscopic turbulent motions are naturally of different strength and form a heterogeneous physical environment. Spatially neighboring plankton communities with different physical conditions can impact each other due to diffusive coupling. We show that local variations in the physical conditions can influence the global system in form of propagating pulses of high population densities. For this we consider three different local predator–prey models with different local responses to variations in the physical environment. The degree of spatial heterogeneity can, depending on the model, promote or reduce the number of propagating pulses, which can be interpreted as patchy plankton distributions and recurrent blooms.     

Adversarial interspecies relationships facilitate population suppression by gene drive in spatially explicit models

Suppression gene drives bias their inheritance to spread through a population, potentially eliminating it when they reach high frequency. CRISPR homing suppression drives have already seen success in the laboratory, but several models predict that success may be elusive in population with realistic spatial structure due to extinction-recolonization cycles. Here, we extend our continuous space framework to include two competing species or predator–prey pairs. We find that in both general and mosquito-specific models, competing species or predators can facilitate drive-based suppression, albeit at the cost of an increased rate of drive loss outcomes. These results are robust in mosquito models with seasonal fluctuations. Our study illustrates the difficulty of predicting outcomes in complex ecosystems. However, our results are promising for the prospects of less powerful suppression gene drives to successfully eliminate target mosquito and other pest populations.     

How population loss through habitat boundaries determines the dynamics of a predator–prey system

The increased persistence of predator–prey systems when interactions are distributed through the space has been acknowledged by both empirical and theoretical studies. One salient feature of predator–prey interactions in heterogeneous space, for example, is the existence of cycles with reduced amplitude when compared with a homogeneous landscape. Although the role of spatial interactions in shaping the dynamics of predator–prey systems has been extensively studied, still very few works have focused on the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on these systems. In this work, we study the population dynamics of a predator–prey system in a single finite habitat with flux at the boundaries. Species movement and growth are described through a reaction–diffusion model with Rosenzweig–MacArthur type local interactions. Conforming with the existing literature, we find that the reduction of habitat size, or increasing of species movement rates equivalently, has the potential to decrease the amplitude of oscillations and even bring the system to a steady coexistence equilibrium above a threshold. We observe, however, situations in which this trend is reversed. This occurs when species movement rates and response at patch boundaries interact to induce non-trivial patterns of species distributions. These distributions are characterized by anti-correlation between predator and prey, creating then spatial refugia for prey. Our results highlight the role of population loss through habitat boundaries in determining the dynamics of predator–prey interactions.     

High food quality of prey lowers its risk of extinction

The mineral and biochemical food quality of prey may limit predator production. This well‐studied direct bottom–up effect is especially prominent for herbivore–plant interactions. Low‐quality prey species, particularly when defended, are generally considered to be less prone to predator‐driven extinction. Undefended high‐quality prey species sustain high predator production thereby potentially increasing their own extinction risk. The food quality of primary producers is highly species‐specific. In communities of competing prey species, predators thus may supplement their diets of low‐quality prey with high‐quality prey, leading to indirect horizontal interactions between prey species of different food quality. We explore how these predator‐mediated indirect interactions affect species coexistence in a general predator–prey model that is parametrized for an experimental algae– rotifer system. To cover a broad range of three essential functional traits that shape many plant–herbivore interactions we consider differences in 1) the food quality of the prey species, 2) their competitive ability for nutrient uptake and 3) their defence against predation. As expected, low food quality of prey can, similarly to defence, provide protection against extinction by predation. Counterintuitively, our simulations demonstrate that being of high food quality also prevents extinction of that prey species and additionally promotes coexistence with a competing, low‐quality prey. The persistence of the high‐quality prey enables a high conversion efficiency and control of the low‐quality prey by the predator and allows for re‐allocation of nutrients to the high‐quality competitor. Our results show that high food quality is not necessarily detrimental for a prey species but instead can protect against extinction and promote species richness and functional biodiversity.     

Consumer versus resource control and the importance of habitat heterogeneity for estuarine bivalves

The relative influence of consumers (top down) and resources (bottom up) on the distribution and abundance of organisms remains a key question in ecology. We examined the relationships between consumer and resource variables along a productivity gradient for a dominant predator–prey interaction in a marine soft‐sediment system. We 1) quantified density and size of the clam Macoma balthica (prey species) in six replicate sites at each of four habitat types (shallow mud, deep mud, muddy sand and detrital mud) in the Rhode River, Chesapeake Bay. We selected one habitat type of high food availability and clam density (shallow mud) and another of low food availability and clam density (muddy sand) for manipulative experiments. Then, we 2) measured M. balthica survival and growth through transplants, 3) measured food availability as sedimentary organic carbon content, 4) quantified predator density, and 5) calculated predator foraging efficiency in the two habitat types. Clam density in the four habitat types differed and was related to sedimentary carbon availability and predator density. One of the habitats, detrital mud, appeared to be a population sink because it only held juvenile Macoma that never survived to reproductive age. Macoma size and growth, and predator (mainly blue crab Callinectes sapidus) densities were positively correlated with productivity and were higher in shallow mud than muddy sand. In contrast, Macoma mortality, local ‘interaction strength’, and predator foraging efficiency were lower in the productive habitat (shallow mud). Thus, predation intensity was inversely correlated with productivity (food availability); consumer and resource effects differed by habitat type; and, at a relatively small spatial scale, consumer and resource forces jointly determined population dynamics in this soft‐sediment marine system.     

Influence of predator‐specific defense adaptation on intraguild predation

The persistence of intraguild predation (IGP), the prey–predator interaction between competing species, is puzzling because simple IGP models readily predict species extinction. In this study, we explored a mathematical model incorporating predator‐specific defense adaptation of basal prey against intraguild prey and intraguild predator. The model explicitly described the dynamics of the defense effort against each predator under the assumption that anti‐predator defense was associated with reducing effort allocated to reproduction. The model predicted that defense adaptation (i.e. the ability to reallocate defense effort) would facilitate coexistence, particularly when system productivity is high; at low productivity, coexistence would be facilitated or inhibited depending on initial effort allocation prior to defense adaptation. In addition, we found that three‐species dynamics became more stable at higher adaptation rates. The results suggest that common behavioral changes, such as predator‐specific defense adaptation, have significant implications for the community structure and dynamics of IGP systems.     

Prey Patch Patterns Predict Habitat Use by Top Marine Predators with Diverse Foraging Strategies

Spatial coherence between predators and prey has rarely been observed in pelagic marine ecosystems. We used measures of the environment, prey abundance, prey quality, and prey distribution to explain the observed distributions of three co-occurring predator species breeding on islands in the southeastern Bering Sea: black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla), thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia), and northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus). Predictions of statistical models were tested using movement patterns obtained from satellite-tracked individual animals. With the most commonly used measures to quantify prey distributions - areal biomass, density, and numerical abundance - we were unable to find a spatial relationship between predators and their prey. We instead found that habitat use by all three predators was predicted most strongly by prey patch characteristics such as depth and local density within spatial aggregations. Additional prey patch characteristics and physical habitat also contributed significantly to characterizing predator patterns. Our results indicate that the small-scale prey patch characteristics are critical to how predators perceive the quality of their food supply and the mechanisms they use to exploit it, regardless of time of day, sampling year, or source colony. The three focal predator species had different constraints and employed different foraging strategies – a shallow diver that makes trips of moderate distance (kittiwakes), a deep diver that makes trip of short distances (murres), and a deep diver that makes extensive trips (fur seals). However, all three were similarly linked by patchiness of prey rather than by the distribution of overall biomass. This supports the hypothesis that patchiness may be critical for understanding predator-prey relationships in pelagic marine systems more generally.