Salamander morph frequencies do not evolve as predicted in response to 40 years of climate change

The global climate is changing rapidly, yet biotic responses remain uncertain. Most studies focus on changes in species ranges or plastic responses like phenology, but adaptive evolution could be equally important. Studying evolutionary responses is challenging given limited historical data and a poor understanding of genetically variable traits under selection. We take advantage of a historical dataset to test for an adaptive response to climate change in a widespread, polymorphic amphibian, the eastern red‐backed salamander Plethodon cinereus. We resurveyed color morph frequencies across New England to test for an adaptive shift in response to climate change. We modeled historical and present‐day morph proportions as a function of climate and tested the accuracy of predictions both within and across different time periods. Our models showed moderate accuracy when predicting morph frequencies within time periods, but poor accuracy across time periods. Despite substantial changes in climate and significant relationships between morph frequency and climate variables within periods, we found no evidence for the predicted shift in morph frequencies across New England. The relationship between climate and color morph frequencies is likely more complex than originally suggested, potentially involving the interplay of additional factors such as microclimate variation, land use changes, and frequency‐dependent selection. Model extrapolation and changes in the correlation structure of climate variables also likely contributed to poor predictive ability. Evolution could provide a means to moderate the effects of climate change on many species. However, we often do not understand the direct links between climate variation, traits, and fitness. Therefore, forecasting climate‐mediated evolution remains an ongoing and important challenge for understanding climate change threats to species.     

Do genetic structure and landscape heterogeneity impact color morph frequency in a polymorphic salamander?

Landscape heterogeneity plays an important role in population structure and divergence, particularly for species with limited vagility. Here, we used a landscape genetic approach to identify how landscape and environmental variables affect genetic structure and color morph frequency in a polymorphic salamander. The eastern red‐backed salamander, Plethodon cinereus, is widely distributed in northeastern North America and contains two common color morphs, striped and unstriped, that are divergent in ecology, behavior, and physiology. To quantify population structure, rates of gene flow, and genetic drift, we amplified 10 microsatellite loci from 648 individuals across 28 sampling localities. This study was conducted in northern Ohio, where populations of P. cinereus exhibit an unusually wide range of morph frequency variation. To test whether genetic distance was more correlated with morph frequency, elevation, canopy cover, waterways, ecological niche or geographic distance, we used resistance distance and least cost path analyses. We then examined whether landscape and environmental variables, genetic distance or geographic distance were correlated with variation in morph frequency. Tests for population structure revealed three genetic clusters across our sampling range, with one cluster monomorphic for the striped morph. Rates of gene flow and genetic drift were low to moderate across sites. Genetic distance was most correlated with ecological niche, elevation and a combination of landscape and environmental variables. In contrast, morph frequency variation was correlated with waterways and geographic distance. Thus, our results suggest that selection is also an important evolutionary force across our sites, and a balance between gene flow, genetic drift and selection interact to maintain the two color morphs.     

Geographic Variation in Genetic Dominance of the Color Morphs of the Red-Backed Salamander, PLETHODON CINEREUS

Female parent-offspring phenotypic data on color morph frequencies in the red-backed salamander, Plethodon cinereus, were obtained from two Virginia localities (164 broods from Greene County and 97 broods from Giles County). The color morph data indicate that the striped morph is genetically dominant in Giles County and recessive in Greene County. It is suggested that epistatic interaction of two or more loci is responsible for the difference between the localities.     

Male mate preference as an agent of fecundity selection in a polymorphic salamander

Color polymorphisms are associated with variation in other traits which may affect individual fitness, and these color‐trait associations are expected to contribute to nonrandom mating in polymorphic species. The red‐backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) exhibits a polymorphism in dorsal pattern: striped and unstriped, and previous studies have suggested that they may mate nonrandomly. However, the mechanism(s) contributing to this behavior remain unclear. Here we consider the role that male preference may have in driving mating behavior in P. cinereus. We limit our focus to striped individuals because this morph is most likely to be choosy given their dominant, aggressive behavioral profiles relative to unstriped males. Specifically, we evaluated (a) whether striped males preferentially associate with females with respect to her dorsum color, size, and body condition and (b) if so, whether female traits are evaluated via visual or chemical cues. We also considered whether the frequency of another male social behavior, nose taps, was associated with mate preferences. We found that striped male P. cinereus nose tapped more often to preferred females. However, males only assessed potential mates via chemical cues, preferring larger females overall. Reproductive phenology data on a sample of gravid females drawn from the same population indicated that the color morphs do not differ in reproductive traits, but larger females have greater fecundity. Given our findings, we conclude that female P. cinereus are under fecundity selection, mediated by male preference. In this manner, male mating behavior contributes to observations of nonrandom mate associations in this population of P. cinereus.     

Questioning the use of an amphibian colour morph as an indicator of climate change

The effects of recent climate changes on earth ecosystems are likely among the most important ecological concerns in human history. Good bioindicators are essential to properly assess the magnitude of these changes. In the last decades, studies have suggested that the morph proportion of the eastern red‐backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus), one of the most widely distributed and abundant vertebrate species in forests of eastern North America, could be used as a proxy for monitoring climate changes. Based on new discoveries in the northern areas of the species' range and on one of the largest compilation ever made for a vertebrate in North America (236 109 observations compiled from 1880 to 2013 in 1148 localities), we demonstrate however that climatic and geographic variables do not influence the colour morph proportions in P. cinereus populations. Consequently, we show that the use of colour morph proportions of this species do not perform as an indicator of climate change. Our findings indicate that bioindicator paradigms can be significantly challenged by new ecological research and more representative databases.     

Evaluating within‐population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal‐limited species to climate change

Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal‐limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus, a dispersal‐limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5‐year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size‐specific fecundity, potentially reducing population‐level persistence. To better understand within‐population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph‐specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.     

Climate change and range restriction of common salamanders in eastern Canada and the United States

The sensitivity of amphibian species to shifts in environmental conditions has been exhibited through long-term population studies and the projection of ecological niche models under expected conditions. Species in biodiversity hotspots have been the focus of ample predictive modeling studies, while, despite their significant ecological value, wide-ranging and common taxa have received less attention. We focused on predicting range restriction of the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum), blue-spotted salamander (A. laterale), four-toed salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum), and red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) under future climate scenarios. Using bias-corrected future climate data and biodiversity database records, we developed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models under current conditions and for climate change projections in 2050 and 2070. We calculated positivity rates of species localities to represent proportions of habitat expected to remain climatically suitable with continued climate change. Models projected under future conditions predicted average positivity rates of 91% (89–93%) for the blue-spotted salamander, 23% (2–41%) for the spotted salamander, 4% (0.7–9%) for the four-toed salamander, and 61% (42–76%) for the red-backed salamander. Range restriction increased with time and greenhouse gas concentration for the spotted salamander, four-toed salamander, and red-backed salamander. Common, widespread taxa that often receive less conservation resources than other species are at risk of experiencing significant losses to their climatic ranges as climate change continues. Efforts to maintain populations of species should be focused on regions expected to experience fewer climatic shifts such as the interior and northern zones of species' distributions.     

Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe

How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071–2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5‐EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4‐GEM2‐ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change.     

Genetic variation in Plethodon cinereus and Plethodon hubrichti from in and around a contact zone

Climate change poses several challenges to biological communities including changes in the frequency of encounters between closely related congeners as a result of range shifts. When climate change leads to increased hybridization, hybrid dysfunction or genetic swamping may increase extinction risk—particularly in range‐restricted species with low vagility. The Peaks of Otter Salamander, Plethodon hubrichti, is a fully terrestrial woodland salamander that is restricted to ~18 km of ridgeline in the mountains of southwestern Virginia, and its range is surrounded by the abundant and widespread Eastern Red‐backed Salamander, Plethodon cinereus. In order to determine whether these two species are hybridizing and how their range limits may be shifting, we assessed variation at eight microsatellite loci and a 1,008 bp region of Cytochrome B in both species at allopatric reference sites and within a contact zone. Our results show that hybridization between P. hubrichti and P. cinereus either does not occur or is very rare. However, we find that diversity and differentiation are substantially higher in the mountaintop endemic P. hubrichti than in the widespread P. cinereus, despite similar movement ability for the two species as assessed by a homing experiment. Furthermore, estimation of divergence times between reference and contact zone populations via approximate Bayesian computation is consistent with the idea that P. cinereus has expanded into the range of P. hubrichti. Given the apparent recent colonization of the contact zone by P. cinereus, future monitoring of P. cinereus range limits should be a priority for the management of P. hubrichti populations.     

Both novelty and conspicuousness influence selection by mammalian predators on the colour pattern of Plethodon cinereus (Urodela: Plethodontidae)

Predators influence the evolution of colour pattern in prey species, yet how these selective forces might differ among predators is rarely considered. In particular, prey colour patterns that indicate unpalatability to some predator species may not carry the same signal for other predators. We test several hypotheses of selection on patterning between mammal predators and the polymorphic salamander Plethodon cinereus, which, under an avian visual system appears as a mimic of the toxic newt Notophthalmus viridescens. We fit each hypothesis against field observations of mammalian attacks on salamander clay replicas. We then develop a novel analytical procedure that enables the combination of multiple non‐exclusive models in a likelihood framework. We find that mammals do not follow any single hypothesis proposed, including the hypothesis of mimicry. Instead, mammals in this system use visual cues while foraging to avoid unfamiliar, novel prey and attack conspicuous prey. We propose that mammals may help to maintain colour pattern polymorphism within populations of P. cinereus by avoiding novel, unfamiliar colour morphs. Additionally, selective pressures from multiple predators and variation in predator communities among sites may contribute to the maintenance of colour polymorphism within and among localities in this salamander species.     

Is geographic variation within species related to macroevolutionary patterns between species?

The relationship between microevolution and macroevolution is a central topic in evolutionary biology. An aspect of this relationship that remains very poorly studied in modern evolutionary biology is the relationship between within‐species geographic variation and among‐species patterns of trait variation. Here, we tested the relationship between climate and morphology among and within species in the salamander genus Plethodon. We focus on a discrete colour polymorphism (presence and absence of a red dorsal stripe) that appears to be related to climatic distributions in a common, wide‐ranging species (Plethodon cinereus). We find that this trait has been variable among (and possibly within) species for >40 million years. Furthermore, we find a strong relationship among species between climatic variation and within‐species morph frequencies. These between‐species patterns are similar (but not identical) to those in the broadly distributed Plethodon cinereus. Surprisingly, there are no significant climate–morphology relationships within most other polymorphic species, despite the strong between‐species patterns. Overall, our study provides an initial exploration of how within‐species geographic variation and large‐scale macroevolutionary patterns of trait variation may be related.     

Dispatches from the neighborhood watch: Using citizen science and field survey data to document color morph frequency in space and time

Heritable color polymorphisms have a long history of study in evolutionary biology, though they are less frequently examined today than in the past. These systems, where multiple discrete, visually identifiable color phenotypes co‐occur in the same population, are valuable for tracking evolutionary change and ascertaining the relative importance of different evolutionary mechanisms. Here, we use a combination of citizen science data and field surveys in the Great Lakes region of North America to identify patterns of color morph frequencies in the eastern gray squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis). Using over 68,000 individual squirrel records from both large and small spatial scales, we identify the following patterns: (a) the melanistic (black) phenotype is often localized but nonetheless widespread throughout the Great Lakes region, occurring in all states and provinces sampled. (b) In Ohio, where intensive surveys were performed, there is a weak but significantly positive association between color morph frequency and geographic proximity of populations. Nonetheless, even nearby populations often had radically different frequencies of the melanistic morph, which ranged from 0% to 96%. These patterns were mosaic rather than clinal. (c) In the Wooster, Ohio population, which had over eight years of continuous data on color morph frequency representing nearly 40,000 records, we found that the frequency of the melanistic morph increased gradually over time on some survey routes but decreased or did not change over time on others. These differences were statistically significant and occurred at very small spatial scales (on the order of hundreds of meters). Together, these patterns are suggestive of genetic drift as an important mechanism of evolutionary change in this system. We argue that studies of color polymorphism are still quite valuable in advancing our understanding of fundamental evolutionary processes, especially when coupled with the growing availability of data from citizen science efforts.     

Pollinator‐mediated selection in a specialized hummingbird–Heliconia system in the Eastern Caribbean

Phenotypic matches between plants and their pollinators often are interpreted as examples of reciprocal selection and adaptation. For the two co‐occurring plant species, Heliconia bihai and H. caribaea in the Eastern Caribbean, we evaluated for five populations over 2 years the strength and direction of natural selection on corolla length and number of bracts per inflorescence. These plant traits correspond closely to the bill lengths and body masses of their primary pollinators, female or male purple‐throated carib hummingbirds (Eulampis jugularis). In H. bihai, directional selection for longer corollas was always significant with the exception of one population in 1 year, whereas selection on bract numbers was rare and found only in one population in 1 year. In contrast, significant directional selection for more bracts per inflorescence occurred in all three populations of the yellow morph and in two populations of the red morph of H. caribaea, whereas significant directional selection on corolla length occurred in only one population of the red morph and one population of the yellow morph. Selection for longer corollas in H. bihai may result from better mechanical fit, and hence pollination, by the long bills of female E. jugularis, their sole pollinator. In contrast, competition between males of E. jugularis for territories may drive selection for more bracts in H. caribaea. Competitive exclusion of female E. jugularis by territorial males also implicates pollinator competition as a possible ecological mechanism for trait diversification in these plants.     

SELECTION ON THE COLOR POLYMORPHISM IN HAWAIIAN HAPPY-FACE SPIDERS: EVIDENCE FROM GENETIC STRUCTURE AND TEMPORAL FLUCTUATIONS

Throughout this century genetic polymorphisms for color have been widely used as a research tool to allow insights into key evolutionary processes. Although color variants can often be diverse within populations, frequencies of different morphs may be similar across populations, either as a result of balancing selection or gene flow. Under these circumstances selection can be extremely difficult to demonstrate. Here we test for balancing selection on the naturally occurring color forms of the Hawaiian happy-face spider, Theridion grallator with two approaches. First, allozyme loci are used to generate a null model against which to test selection. Frequencies of alleles involved in the color polymorphism of T. grallator are used to generate another estimate for comparison. The results suggest that statistically similar frequencies of color morphs among populations of T. grallator may be maintained by some form of balancing selection. Second, we make use of an unusual event in which the normally stable frequencies of unpatterned and patterned morphs within a population were found to have shifted toward an excess of unpatterned morphs. We scored offspring of all fertilized, unpatterned (bottom-recessive) females found during this period of skewed morph frequencies and also in a year when morph frequencies were normal to deduce paternal color phenotypes. Mating was found to be random in the normal year, but in the perturbed year females had mated with rare (patterned) males twice as frequently as expected on the basis of the frequency of this morph type in the population. Both of these results are consistent with selection operating on the color polymorphism, and we speculate that apostatic selection, perhaps mediated by bird predators, may provide the mechanism.     

Evidence of genomic adaptation to climate in Eucalyptus microcarpa: Implications for adaptive potential to projected climate change

Understanding whether populations can adapt in situ or whether interventions are required is of key importance for biodiversity management under climate change. Landscape genomics is becoming an increasingly important and powerful tool for rapid assessments of climate adaptation, especially in long‐lived species such as trees. We investigated climate adaptation in Eucalyptus microcarpa using the DArTseq genomic approach. A combination of F_ST outlier and environmental association analyses were performed using >4200 genomewide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 26 populations spanning climate gradients in southeastern Australia. Eighty‐one SNPs were identified as putatively adaptive, based on significance in F_ST outlier tests and significant associations with one or more climate variables related to temperature (70/81), aridity (37/81) or precipitation (35/81). Adaptive SNPs were located on all 11 chromosomes, with no particular region associated with individual climate variables. Climate adaptation appeared to be characterized by subtle shifts in allele frequencies, with no consistent fixed differences identified. Based on these associations, we predict adaptation under projected changes in climate will include a suite of shifts in allele frequencies. Whether this can occur sufficiently rapidly through natural selection within populations, or would benefit from assisted gene migration, requires further evaluation. In some populations, the absence or predicted increases to near fixation of particular adaptive alleles hint at potential limits to adaptive capacity. Together, these results reinforce the importance of standing genetic variation at the geographic level for maintaining species’ evolutionary potential.     

Change and stability in a steep morph‐frequency cline in the snail Cepaea nemoralis (L.) over 43 years

Populations of the polymorphic land snail Cepaea nemoralis (L.) from Deepdale, Derbyshire, UK, sampled in 1965–67, showed a pattern of area effects, with steep clines among groups of populations differing in shell colour and banding morph frequencies. In 2010, most of these populations were resampled. In particular, a continuous transect made in 1967 of 42 quadrats (18.34 × 18.34 m) across a steep cline in several morph frequencies was completely resampled. In the dale as a whole, yellow shells had increased in frequency. In the transect, the frequencies of banding morphs showed no significant changes, although colour morphs showed some changes. Pink shells had increased in frequency in a section in which scrub had developed, and brown shells had increased in frequency in the area in which they had originally been at the highest frequency. In each case, the selection coefficients were of the order of 4%. Yellow had increased elsewhere. Nevertheless, both in the dale as a whole and in the transect, the pattern of geographical change in morph frequencies had remained essentially the same. Estimates of migration based on previous studies of marked snails and on modelling of the effect of drift and migration suggest that, regardless of whether the cline is a product of differential selection or of the gradual merging of previously separate founding populations, it has been in existence for a long time, and that migration occurs over greater distances than estimated from direct observation on marked snails. Although we can demonstrate that selection has occurred, the origin and maintenance of the cline and others similar to it remain in doubt; the development and maintenance of polymorphism in this species may require consideration of several processes operating on different time scales. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London     

Risk of genetic maladaptation due to climate change in three major European tree species

Tree populations usually show adaptations to their local environments as a result of natural selection. As climates change, populations can become locally maladapted and decline in fitness. Evaluating the expected degree of genetic maladaptation due to climate change will allow forest managers to assess forest vulnerability, and develop strategies to preserve forest health and productivity. We studied potential genetic maladaptation to future climates in three major European tree species, Norway spruce (Picea abies), silver fir (Abies alba), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica). A common garden experiment was conducted to evaluate the quantitative genetic variation in growth and phenology of seedlings from 77 to 92 native populations of each species from across Switzerland. We used multivariate genecological models to associate population variation with past seed source climates, and to estimate relative risk of maladaptation to current and future climates based on key phenotypic traits and three regional climate projections within the A1B scenario. Current risks from climate change were similar to average risks from current seed transfer practices. For all three climate models, future risks increased in spruce and beech until the end of the century, but remained low in fir. Largest average risks associated with climate projections for the period 2061–2090 were found for spruce seedling height (0.64), and for beech bud break and leaf senescence (0.52 and 0.46). Future risks for spruce were high across Switzerland. However, areas of high risk were also found in drought‐prone regions for beech and in the southern Alps for fir. Genetic maladaptation to future climates is likely to become a problem for spruce and beech by the end of this century, but probably not for fir. Consequently, forest management strategies should be adjusted in the study area for spruce and beech to maintain productive and healthy forests in the future.     

The Influence of Parental Color Morph on Mate Choice in the Cichlid Fish Cichlasoma nigrofasciatum

Cichlasoma nigrofasciatum of two different color morphs (striped or white), each of which had been taken care of from spawning up to 7 weeks of age by foster parents of the other color morph, were put together in a “free choice situation” and tested for their preference to spawn with a mate of the striped or of the white morph. The number of pairs of the same color (striped × striped, white × white) and of different color (“mixed” pairs, striped × white) was recorded and compared with the results of control fish. The latter had been taken care of from spawning up to 7 weeks of age by foster parents of the same color morph and were also tested in a free choice situation. The influence of parental color morph on mate choice was analysed in the first mate choice of naive animals (breeding for the first time). The stability over time of the preferences observed in the naive animals was then studied in the 18 months following the first mate choice experiment. Our results show that if young Cichlasoma nigrofasciatum had been taken care of by foster parents of the other color morph, but had grown up with siblings of their own color morph, approximately 9 % of the matings involved partners which had a different color (mixed pairs). In contrast, young which had been taken care of by foster parents of their own color morph and had grown up with siblings of their own color were completely segregated according to color during breeding (striped pairs or white pairs) and never formed mixed pairs. The importance of the influence of parental and sibling color morph on the preference to mate with a particular morph and, consequently, on speciation in cichlids in general are discussed.     

Ecological separation in a polymorphic terrestrial salamander

1. When studying speciation, researchers commonly examine reproductive isolation in recently diverged populations. Polymorphic species provide an opportunity to examine the role of reproductive isolation in populations that may be in the process of divergence. 2. We examined a polymorphic population of Plethodon cinereus (red-backed salamanders) for evidence of sympatric ecological separation by colour morphology. Recent studies have correlated temperature and climate with colour morphology in this species, but no studies have looked at differences in diet or mate choice between colour morphs. We used artificial cover objects to assess salamander diet, mating preference and surface activity over a 2-year period at a field site in north-eastern Ohio. 3. We detected differences in diet between two colour morphs, striped and unstriped. The diets of striped individuals were significantly more diverse and were made up of more profitable prey than the diets of unstriped salamanders. 4. Opposite sex pairs were made up of individuals of the same colour morph and striped males were found more often with larger females than were unstriped males. 5. We corroborate findings of earlier studies suggesting that the unstriped form is adapted to warmer conditions. Unstriped individuals were the first to withdraw from the forest floor as temperatures fell in the late fall. We found no evidence that the colour morphs responded differently to abiotic factors such as soil moisture and relative humidity, and responses to surface temperatures were also equivocal. 6. We conclude that the two colour morphs exhibit some degree of ecological separation and tend to mate assortatively, but are unlikely to be undergoing divergence given the observed frequency of intermorph pairings.     

Clinal variation in the morph ratio of Black Sparrowhawks Accipiter melanoleucus in South Africa and its correlation with environmental variables

The morph ratio distribution in polymorphic species often varies clinally, with a gradual change in morph ratios across the distributional range of the species. In polymorphic bird populations, clinal variation is rarely quantified. We describe a cline in the morph ratios of Black Sparrowhawks across South Africa, which is principally driven by a higher ratio of dark morph birds in the newly colonized southwest of the country. Across the 1400 km of our cline, the probability of a bird being a dark morph declined from over 80% close to the Cape Peninsula to under 20% in the northeast. Higher frequencies of dark morphs were associated with a higher proportion of rainfall falling during the winter breeding months. Further investigation revealed relationships between the proportion of dark morphs and altitude, amount of rainfall during the breeding months, and an interaction between this variable and temperature. These results provide some support for the suggestion that the higher frequency of dark morphs in the southwest is an adaptive response, rather than the result of a founder effect or genetic drift. These findings also suggest that, in theory, polymorphic species may be better adapted to cope with the challenges of climate change or may be able to expand their ranges more quickly into novel climatic areas, since selection pressure can act on a pre‐existing trait that may be beneficial in new conditions.