Climate change in the Arctic: Testing the poleward expansion of ticks and tick-borne diseases

Climate change is most strongly felt in the polar regions of the world, with significant impacts on the species that live there. The arrival of parasites and pathogens from more temperate areas may become a significant problem for these populations, but current observations of parasite presence often lack a historical reference of prior absence. Observations in the high Arctic of the seabird tick Ixodes uriae suggested that this species expanded poleward in the last two decades in relation to climate change. As this tick can have a direct impact on the breeding success of its seabird hosts and vectors several pathogens, including Lyme disease spirochaetes, understanding its invasion dynamics is essential for predicting its impact on polar seabird populations. Here, we use population genetic data and host serology to test the hypothesis that I. uriae recently expanded into Svalbard. Both black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) and thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) were sampled for ticks and blood in Kongsfjorden, Spitsbergen. Ticks were genotyped using microsatellite markers and population genetic analyses were performed using data from 14 reference populations from across the tick's northern distribution. In contrast to predictions, the Spitsbergen population showed high genetic diversity and significant differentiation from reference populations, suggesting long-term isolation. Host serology also demonstrated a high exposure rate to Lyme disease spirochaetes (Bbsl). Targeted PCR and sequencing confirmed the presence of Borrelia garinii in a Spitsbergen tick, demonstrating the presence of Lyme disease bacteria in the high Arctic for the first time. Taken together, results contradict the notion that I. uriae has recently expanded into the high Arctic. Rather, this tick has likely been present for some time, maintaining relatively high population sizes and an endemic transmission cycle of Bbsl. Close future observations of population infestation/infection rates will now be necessary to relate epidemiological changes to ongoing climate modifications.     

Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top‐predator track ocean warming rates

Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long‐lived, wide‐ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black‐legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea‐surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large‐scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom‐up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large‐scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself.     

Are corticosterone levels a good indicator of food availability and reproductive performance in a kittiwake colony?

We evaluated the use of corticosterone to gauge forage availability and predict reproductive performance in black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) breeding in Alaska during 1999 and 2000. We modeled the relationship between baseline levels of corticosterone and a suite of individual and temporal characteristics of the sampled birds. We also provided supplemental food to a sample of pairs and compared their corticosterone levels with that of pairs that were not fed. Corticosterone levels were a good predictor of forage availability in some situations, although inconsistencies between corticosterone levels and reproductive performance of fed and unfed kittiwakes suggested that this was not always the case. In general, higher corticosterone levels were found in birds that lacked breeding experience and in birds sampled shortly after arriving from their wintering grounds. All parameters investigated, however, explained only a small proportion of the variance in corticosterone levels. We also investigated whether corticosterone, supplemental feeding, year of the study, breeding experience, body weight, and sex of a bird were able to predict laying, hatching, and fledging success in kittiwakes. Here, breeding experience, year of the study, and body weight were the best predictors of a bird's performance. Corticosterone level and supplemental feeding were good predictors of kittiwake reproductive performance in some cases. For example, corticosterone levels of birds sampled during the arrival stage reliably predicted laying success, but were less reliable at predicting hatching and fledging success. Counts of active nests with eggs or chicks may be more reliable estimates of the actual productivity of the colony. Supplemental feeding had strong effects on kittiwake productivity when natural forage was poor, but had little effect when natural forage was plentiful.     

Going through the motions: incorporating movement analyses into disease research

Though epidemiology dates back to the 1700s, most mathematical representations of epidemics still use transmission rates averaged at the population scale, especially for wildlife diseases. In simplifying the contact process, we ignore the heterogeneities in host movements that complicate the real world, and overlook their impact on spatiotemporal patterns of disease burden. Movement ecology offers a set of tools that help unpack the transmission process, letting researchers more accurately model how animals within a population interact and spread pathogens. Analytical techniques from this growing field can also help expose the reverse process: how infection impacts movement behaviours, and therefore other ecological processes like feeding, reproduction, and dispersal. Here, we synthesise the contributions of movement ecology in disease research, with a particular focus on studies that have successfully used movement‐based methods to quantify individual heterogeneity in exposure and transmission risk. Throughout, we highlight the rapid growth of both disease and movement ecology and comment on promising but unexplored avenues for research at their overlap. Ultimately, we suggest, including movement empowers ecologists to pose new questions, expanding our understanding of host–pathogen dynamics and improving our predictive capacity for wildlife and even human diseases.     

Manipulation of host-resource dynamics impacts transmission of trophic parasites

Many complex life cycle parasites rely on predator–prey interactions for transmission, whereby definitive hosts become infected via the consumption of an infected intermediate host. As such, these trophic parasites are embedded in the larger community food web. We postulated that exposure to infection and, hence, parasite transmission are inherently linked to host foraging ecology, and that perturbation of the host-resource dynamic will impact parasite transmission dynamics. We employed a field manipulation experiment in which natural populations of the eastern chipmunk (Tamias striatus) were provisioned with a readily available food resource in clumped or uniform spatial distributions. Using replicated longitudinal capture-mark-recapture techniques, replicated supplemented and unsupplemented control sites were monitored before and after treatment for changes in infection levels with three gastro-intestinal helminth parasites. We predicted that definitive hosts subject to food supplementation would experience lower rates of exposure to infective intermediate hosts, presumably because they shifted their diet away from the intermediate host towards the more readily available resource (sunflower seeds). As predicted, prevalence of infection by the trophically transmitted parasite decreased in response to supplemental food treatment, but no such change in infection prevalence was detected for the two directly transmitted parasites in the system. The fact that food supplementation only had an impact on the transmission of the trophically transmitted parasite, and not the directly transmitted parasites, supports our hypothesis that host foraging ecology directly affects exposure to parasites that rely on the ingestion of intermediate hosts for transmission. We concluded that the relative availability of different food resources has important consequences for the transmission of parasites and, more specifically, parasites that are embedded in the food web. The broader implications of these findings for food web dynamics and disease ecology are discussed.     

Environmental heterogeneity amplifies behavioural response to a temporal cycle

Resource acquisition is integral to maximise fitness, however in many ecosystems this requires adaptation to resource abundance and distributions that seldom stay constant. For predators, prey availability can vary at fine spatial and temporal scales as a result of changes in the physical environment, and therefore selection should favour individuals that can adapt their foraging behaviour accordingly. The tidal cycle is a short, yet predictable, temporal cycle, which can influence prey availability at temporal scales relevant to movement decisions. Here, we ask whether black‐legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla can adjust their foraging habitat selection according to the tidal cycle using GPS tracking studies at three sites of differing environmental heterogeneity. We used a hidden Markov model to classify kittiwake behaviour, and analysed habitat selection during foraging. As expected for a central‐place forager, we found that kittiwakes preferred to forage nearer to the breeding colony. However, we also show that habitat selection changed over the 12.4‐h tidal cycle, most likely because of changes in resource availability. Furthermore, we observed that environmental heterogeneity was associated with amplified changes in kittiwake habitat selection over the tidal cycle, potentially because environmental heterogeneity drives greater resource variation. Both predictable cycles and environmental heterogeneity are ubiquitous. Our results therefore suggest that, together, predictable cycles and environmental heterogeneity may shape predator behaviour across ecosystems.     

Within and between species competition in a seabird community: statistical exploration and modeling of time-series data

In a changing environment, the maintenance of communities is subject to many constraints (phenology, resources, climate, etc.). One such constraint is the relationship between conspecifics and competitors. In mixed colonies, seabirds may have to cope with interspecific and intraspecific competition for both space and food resources. We applied competitive interaction models to data on three seabird breeding populations: black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), common guillemot (Uria aalge) and Brünnich's guillemot (Uria lomvia) collected over 27-years at Kharlov Island in the Barents Sea. We found a competitive effect only for the kittiwake breeding population size on the common guillemot breeding population size when kittiwakes were abundant. The timing of kittiwake breeding negatively affected the number of breeding Brünnich's guillemots. The timing of breeding was negatively correlated to biomass of the main pelagic fish in the Barents Sea, the capelin (Mallotus villosus), which suggests an indirect action. The community matrix shows that the community was not stable. The kittiwake population did not decrease as seen in north Norwegian populations. Likewise, the common guillemot population, after a crash in 1985, was recovering at Kharlov while Norwegian populations were decreasing. Only the Brünnich's guillemot showed a decrease at Kharlov until 1999. We suggest that the stability of the kittiwake and common guillemot populations at Kharlov is due to better feeding conditions than in colonies of the Norwegian coast, linked to a possible eastward shift of the capelin population with the temperature increase of the Barents Sea.     

Natural attachment duration of nymphs of the tick Ixodes uriae (Acari: Ixodidae) on kittiwake Rissa tridactyla nestlings

Daily searches of the plumage of 62 kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) chicks were carried out for 3 weeks to determine the attachment duration of the tick Ixodes uriae. All ticks recorded were nymphs and their mean duration of attachment was 5.2±1.7 days (n=93). Seventy-four per cent of the ticks survived to engorgement and were assumed to have fed successfully. The mean duration of attachment of successful ticks was 5.8±1.0 days (n=69), significantly longer than that of unsuccessful ticks (3.3±2.1 days, n=24). There was no difference in survival rates to engorgement between ticks attached to feathered and unfeathered parts of the body (78.3 and 79.2%, respectively), but the duration of attachment of successful ticks was significantly longer on unfeathered compared to feathered areas. There were no significant differences in the survival to engorgement or duration of attachment between ticks found on young (c.11 days) and old (>11 days) kittiwake nestlings. The attachment duration was not related to the total number of ticks found on the host or the number of ticks present in the immediate vicinity of the site of attachment. This work provides important data on the parameter of attachment durations of nymphal I. uriae on free-living kittiwakes; the data can be used for incorporation into the application of population modelling.     

Comparative host-parasite population structures: disentangling prospecting and dispersal in the black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla

Although much insight is to be gained through the comparison of the population genetic structures of parasites and hosts, there are, at present, few studies that take advantage of the information on vertebrate life histories available through the consideration of their parasites. Here, we examined the genetic structure of a colonial seabird, the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) using seven polymorphic microsatellite markers to make inferences about population functioning and intercolony dispersal. We sampled kittiwakes from 22 colonies across the species' range and, at the same time, collected individuals of one of its common ectoparasites, the tick Ixodes uriae. Parasites were genotyped at eight microsatellite markers and the population genetic structure of host and parasite were compared. Kittiwake populations are only genetically structured at large spatial scales and show weak patterns of isolation by distance. This may be due to long-distance dispersal events that erase local patterns of population subdivision. However, important additional information is gained by comparing results with those of the parasite. In particular, tick populations are strongly structured at regional scales and show a stepping-stone pattern of gene flow. Due to the parasite's life history, its population structure is directly linked to the frequency and spatial extent of within-breeding season movements of kittiwakes. The comparison of host and parasite gene flow therefore helps us to disentangle the intercolony movements of birds from that of true dispersal events (movement followed by reproduction). In addition, such data can provide essential elements for predicting the outcome of local co-evolutionary interactions.     

A comparative analysis of the helminth fauna of kittiwake Rissa tridactyla (Linnaeus, 1758) and glaucous gull Larus hyperboreus Gunnerus, 1767 from different parts of the Barents Sea

The article is based on the results of helminthological observations made on kittiwake Rissa tridactyla and glaucous gull Larus hyperboreus in 1991-2001 in different areas of the Barents Sea (Eastern Murman coast, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya, Spitzbergen). 18 helminth species (2 trematodes, 11 cestodes, 4 nematodes, and 2 acanthocephalans) were recorded in the kittiwakes and 19 (3 trematodes, 9 cestodes, 5 nematodes and 2 acanthocephalans) species were recorded in the glaucous gulls. Trematodes were absent in the birds collected at the Franz Josef Land and the northern island of Novaya Zemlya. 3 trematode species, namely Gymnophallus sp. (somateria?), Microphallus sp. 1 (M. pseudopygmaeus), and Cryptocotyle lingua were found in the glaucous gulls of western Spitzbergen. It was supposed that the life cycles of these parasites can be completed there. On the other hand, coastal ecosystems of Arctic archipelagoes turn out to be favourable for the transmission of some cestodes. This is closely connected with the regional traits in the marine bird diet, namely the increase of the amphipod (intermediate hosts of hymenolepidids and some dilepidids) and polar cod (supposed second intermediate host for some tetrabothriids) portion in Arctic. As a result, cestodes are the base of the helminth fauna of kittiwakes and glaucous gulls of the Barents Sea, by their species richness, prevalence and abundance. Nematodes and acanthocephalans were represented by a few species with low infection intensity. The main ecological factors affected the regional difference in the species richness and abundance of the helminths parasitising kittiwakes and glaucous gulls in the Barents Sea are proposed. Those are regional climatic features and regional traits in the behaviour and food priorities of birds, and also the distribution of the helminths intermediate hosts, invertebrates and fishes. The phenomenon of host specificity lowering with respect to the definitive host was recorded in some cestode species (Microsomacanthus diorchis, M. microsoma, and Arctotaenia tetrabothrioides) on the border of their distribution ranges, the coastal ecosystems of Arctic.     

Peculiarities of protein hydrolysis on the digestive-transport surfaces of the intestine of the Kittiwake Rissa Tridactyla and Alcataenia Larina (Cestoda, Dilepididae) parasitizing it

Research of the activity of proteolytic enzymes functioning on the digestive-transport surfaces of the intestine of infected and noninfected kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla and cestodes Alcataenia larina (Cestoda, Dilepididae) parasitizing it was conducted. The protease activities depending on the pH values in the intestine of gulls and tapeworms were determined. The dynamics of desorption of enzymes of protein hydrolysis from the surface of the cestodes A. larina and the kittiwake intestine was studied. It was shown that the tapeworm invasion activates the processes of membrane and cavitary digestion of birds. It was determined that the degree of influence of the dilepidid infection on protease activity was defined mainly by the intensity of the invasion.     

Partitioning the influence of ecology across scales on parasite evolution

Vector‐borne parasites must succeed at three scales to persist: they must proliferate within a host, establish in vectors, and transmit back to hosts. Ecology outside the host undergoes dramatic seasonal and human‐induced changes, but predicting parasite evolutionary responses requires integrating their success across scales. We develop a novel, data‐driven model to titrate the evolutionary impact of ecology at multiple scales on human malaria parasites. We investigate how parasites invest in transmission versus proliferation, a life‐history trait that influences disease severity and spread. We find that transmission investment controls the pattern of host infectiousness over the course of infection: a trade‐off emerges between early and late infectiousness, and the optimal resolution of that trade‐off depends on ecology outside the host. An expanding epidemic favors rapid proliferation, and can overwhelm the evolutionary influence of host recovery rates and mosquito population dynamics. If transmission investment and recovery rate are positively correlated, then ecology outside the host imposes potent selection for aggressive parasite proliferation at the expense of transmission. Any association between transmission investment and recovery represents a key unknown, one that is likely to influence whether the evolutionary consequences of interventions are beneficial or costly for human health.     

Diversity and temporal stability of bacterial communities in a model passerine bird, the zebra finch

The composition and dynamics of the gastrointestinal bacterial communities in birds is determined by both host-specific and environmental exposure factors yet these are poorly understood. We selected the zebra finch, Taeniopygia guttata, as the host species to examine the diversity and temporal stability of the faecal microflora in a bird, owing to its importance as a model organism in avian ecology, neuroscience and evolution studies. The stability of the gut bacterial community of individual male and female zebra finches was assessed through repeat faecal sampling via culture and temperature gradient gel electrophoresis and partial sequencing of PCR-amplified eubacterial 16S rRNA gene products. Nineteen bacterial genera were detected across all samples (n = 99), with each bird carrying on average six operational taxonomic units. Using a novel statistical approach, we showed that bacterial assemblages and community richness varied between individual birds but remained stable over time within individuals. Neither the composition nor richness of bacterial communities differed significantly between the sexes. Our results show that zebra finches housed together under controlled conditions show consistent variation between individuals in their gut microflora that is not attributable to differences in host exposure to environmental microbial sources. Future studies could usefully explore the origin of this individual-specific variation and its consequences for host fitness and sexual selection.     

Viral control of phytoplankton populations--a review

Phytoplankton population dynamics are the result of imbalances between reproduction and losses. Losses include grazing, sinking, and natural mortality. As the importance of microbes in aquatic ecology has been recognized, so has the potential significance of viruses as mortality agents for phytoplankton. The field of algal virus ecology is steadily changing and advancing as new viruses are isolated and new methods are developed for quantifying the impact of viruses on phytoplankton dynamics and diversity. With this development, evidence is accumulating that viruses can control phytoplankton dynamics through reduction of host populations, or by preventing algal host populations from reaching high levels. The identification of highly specific host ranges of viruses is changing our understanding of population dynamics. Viral-mediated mortality may not only affect algal species succession, but may also affect intraspecies succession. Through cellular lysis, viruses indirectly affect the fluxes of energy, nutrients, and organic matter, especially during algal bloom events when biomass is high. Although the importance of viruses is presently recognized, it is apparent that many aspects of viral-mediated mortality of phytoplankton are still poorly understood. It is imperative that future research addresses the mechanisms that regulate virus infectivity, host resistance, genotype richness, abundance, and the fate of viruses over time and space.     

Host-dependent genetic structure of parasite populations: differential dispersal of seabird tick host races

Abstract Despite the fact that parasite dispersal is likely to be one of the most important processes influencing the dynamics and coevolution of host-parasite interactions, little information is available on the factors that affect it. In most cases, opportunities for parasite dispersal should be closely linked to host biology. Here we use microsatellite genetic markers to compare the population structure and dispersal of two host races of the seabird tick Ixodes uriae at the scale of the North Atlantic. Interestingly, tick populations showed high within-population genetic variation and relatively low population differentiation. However, gene flow at different spatial scales seemed to depend on the host species exploited. The black-legged kittiwake ( Rissa tridactyla ) had structured tick populations showing patterns of isolation by distance, whereas tick populations of the Atlantic puffin ( Fratercula arctica ) were only weakly structured at the largest scale considered. Host-dependent rates of tick dispersal between colonies will alter infestation probabilities and local dynamics and may thus modify the adaptation potential of ticks to local hosts. Moreover, as I. uriae is a vector of the Lyme disease agent Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in both hemispheres, the large-scale movements of birds and the subsequent dispersal of ticks will have important consequences for the dynamics and coevolutionary interactions of this microparasite with its different vertebrate and invertebrate hosts.     

Impact of bacterial genetics on the transmission of isoniazid-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Understanding the ecology of drug-resistant pathogens is essential for devising rational programs to preserve the effective lifespan of antimicrobial agents and to abrogate epidemics of drug-resistant organisms. Mathematical models predict that strain fitness is an important determinant of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission, but the effects of strain diversity have been largely overlooked. Here we compared the impact of resistance mutations on the transmission of isoniazid-resistant M. tuberculosis in San Francisco during a 9-y period. Strains with a KatG S315T or inhA promoter mutation were more likely to spread than strains with other mutations. The impact of these mutations on the transmission of isoniazid-resistant strains was comparable to the effect of other clinical determinants of transmission. Associations were apparent between specific drug resistance mutations and the main M. tuberculosis lineages. Our results show that in addition to host and environmental factors, strain genetic diversity can influence the transmission dynamics of drug-resistant bacteria.     

A hyperparasite affects the population dynamics of a wild plant pathogen

Assessing the impact of natural enemies of plant and animal pathogens on their host's population dynamics is needed to determine the role of hyperparasites in affecting disease dynamics, and their potential for use in efficient control strategies of pathogens. Here, we focus on the long‐term study describing metapopulation dynamics of an obligate pathogen, the powdery mildew (Podosphaera plantaginis) naturally infecting its wild host plant (Plantago lanceolata) in the fragmented landscape of the Åland archipelago (southwest Finland). Regionally, the pathogen persists through a balance of extinctions and colonizations, yet factors affecting extinction rates remain poorly understood. Mycoparasites of the genus Ampelomyces appear as good candidates for testing the role of a hyperparasite, i.e. a parasite of other parasites, in the regulation of their fungal hosts' population dynamics. For this purpose, we first designed a quantitative PCR assay for detection of Ampelomyces spp. in field‐collected samples. This newly developed molecular test was then applied to a large‐scale sampling within the Åland archipelago, revealing that Ampelomyces is a widespread hyperparasite in this system, with high variability in prevalence among populations. We found that the hyperparasite was more common on leaves where multiple powdery mildew strains coexist, a pattern that may be attributed to differential exposure. Moreover, the prevalence of Ampelomyces at the plant level negatively affected the overwinter survival of its fungal host. We conclude that this hyperparasite may likely impact on its host population dynamics and argue for increased focus on the role of hyperparasites in disease dynamics.     

The interaction between plant competition and disease

It is well documented that pathogens can affect the survival, reproduction, and growth of individual plants. Drawing together insights from diverse studies in ecology and agriculture, we evaluate the evidence for pathogens affecting competitive interactions between plants of both the same and different species. Our objective is to explore the potential ecological and evolutionary consequences of such interactions. First, we address how disease interacts with intraspecific competition and present a simple graphical model suggesting that diverse outcomes should be expected. We conclude that the presence of pathogens may have either large or minimal effects on population dynamics depending on many factors including the density-dependent compensatory ability of healthy plants and spatial patterns of infection. Second, we consider how disease can alter competitive abilities of genotypes, and thus may affect the genetic composition of populations. These genetic processes feed back on population dynamics given trade-offs between disease resistance and other fitness components. Third, we examine how the effect of disease on interspecific plant interactions may have potentially far-reaching effects on community composition. A host-specific pathogen, for example, may alter a competitive hierarchy that exists between host and non-host species. Generalist pathogens can also induce indirect competitive interactions between host species. We conclude by highlighting lacunae in our current understanding and suggest that future studies should (1) examine a broader taxonomic range of pathogens since work to date has largely focused on fungal pathogens; (2) increase the use of field competition studies; (3) follow interactions for multiple generations; (4) characterize density-dependent processes; and (5) quantify pathogen, as well as plant, population and community dynamics.     

Disease‐structured N‐mixture models: A practical guide to model disease dynamics using count data

Obtaining inferences on disease dynamics (e.g., host population size, pathogen prevalence, transmission rate, host survival probability) typically requires marking and tracking individuals over time. While multistate mark–recapture models can produce high‐quality inference, these techniques are difficult to employ at large spatial and long temporal scales or in small remnant host populations decimated by virulent pathogens, where low recapture rates may preclude the use of mark–recapture techniques. Recently developed N‐mixture models offer a statistical framework for estimating wildlife disease dynamics from count data. N‐mixture models are a type of state‐space model in which observation error is attributed to failing to detect some individuals when they are present (i.e., false negatives). The analysis approach uses repeated surveys of sites over a period of population closure to estimate detection probability. We review the challenges of modeling disease dynamics and describe how N‐mixture models can be used to estimate common metrics, including pathogen prevalence, transmission, and recovery rates while accounting for imperfect host and pathogen detection. We also offer a perspective on future research directions at the intersection of quantitative and disease ecology, including the estimation of false positives in pathogen presence, spatially explicit disease‐structured N‐mixture models, and the integration of other data types with count data to inform disease dynamics. Managers rely on accurate and precise estimates of disease dynamics to develop strategies to mitigate pathogen impacts on host populations. At a time when pathogens pose one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, statistical methods that lead to robust inferences on host populations are critically needed for rapid, rather than incremental, assessments of the impacts of emerging infectious diseases.     

Adaptive modeling of viral diseases in bats with a focus on rabies

Many emerging and reemerging viruses, such as rabies, SARS, Marburg, and Ebola have bat populations as disease reservoirs. Understanding the spillover from bats to humans and other animals, and the associated health risks requires an analysis of the disease dynamics in bat populations. Traditional compartmental epizootic models, which are relatively easy to implement and analyze, usually impose unrealistic aggregation assumptions about disease-related structure and depend on parameters that frequently are not measurable in field conditions. We propose a novel combination of computational and adaptive modeling approaches that address the maintenance of emerging diseases in bat colonies through individual (intra-host) models of the response of the host to a viral challenge. The dynamics of the individual models are used to define survival, susceptibility and transmission conditions relevant to epizootics as well as to develop and parametrize models of the disease evolution into uniform and diverse populations. Applications of the proposed approach to modeling the effects of immunological heterogeneity on the dynamics of bat rabies are presented.