Population trends and spatial synchrony in peripheral populations of the endangered Lesser grey shrike in response to environmental change

Regional synchronization in species dynamics as well as particular ecological and demographic characteristics of peripheral populations poses special challenges for conservation purposes, particularly under the current scenario of global climate change. Here, we study the population trend and spatial synchrony of several peripheral populations of the endangered Lesser grey shrike Lanius minor at the western limit of its breeding range (southern France and northeast Spain). In an attempt to ascertain the effect of environmental change on the decline of the species we also look for evidence of climate changes in the breeding and wintering area of this shrike and related effects on vegetation by using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We found that the interannual fluctuations of the peripheral populations in France and Spain are strongly correlated, therefore suggesting that their decline can be under the influence of a common factor. We obtained clear evidence of climatic change (an increased thermal oscillation) in one peripheral population that could have resulted in a decrease of the NDVI index in the area. Our study finds correlational evidence that climatic variables in the breeding area may account for fluctuations in abundances of some populations and that environmental conditions experimented by some population could influence the fate of the neighboring populations. Our results indicate that the studied peripheral populations are spatially synchronized, so that conservation efforts should be applied at a large-scale encompassing all the isolated populations at the western border of the range of the species in the Mediterranean area.     

Warming effects in the western Antarctic Peninsula ecosystem: the role of population dynamic models for explaining and predicting penguin trends

The western Antarctica Peninsula and Scotia Sea ecosystems appear to be driven by complex links between climatic variables, primary productivity, krill and Avian predators. There are several studies reporting statistical relationships between climate, krill and Penguin population size. The Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), Chinstrap (P. antarctica) and Gentoo (P. papua) penguins appear to be influenced by interannual variability in sea-ice extent and krill biomass. In this paper we developed simple conceptual models to decipher the role of climate and krill fluctuations on the population dynamics of these three Pygoscelis penguin species inhabiting the Antarctic Peninsula region. Our results suggest that the relevant processes underlying the population dynamics of these penguin species at King George Island (South Shetland Islands) are intra-specific competition and the combined effects of krill abundance and sea-ice cover. Our results using population theoretical models appear to support that climate change, specifically regional warming on the western Antarctic Peninsula, represents a major driver. At our study site, penguins showed species-specific responses to climate change. While Chinstrap penguins were only influenced by krill abundance, the contrasting population trends of Adélie and Gentoo penguins appear to be better explained by the “sea-ice hypothesis”. We think that proper population dynamic modeling and theory are essential for deciphering and proposing the ecological mechanisms underlying dynamics of these penguin populations.     

Relative influence of fisheries and climate on the demography of four albatross species

Worldwide ecosystems are modified by human activities and climate change. To be able to predict future changes, it is necessary to understand their respective role on population dynamics. Among the most threatened species are top predators because of their position in the food web. Albatross populations are potentially affected by both human activities, especially longline fisheries, and climatic fluctuations. Based on long‐term data (1985–2006), we conducted through a comparative approach a demographic analysis (adult survival and breeding success) on four albatross species breeding on the Indian Ocean sub‐Antarctic Islands to assess the relative impact of climate and fisheries during and outside the breeding season. The study revealed that adult survival of almost all species was not affected by climate, and therefore probably canalized against climatic variations, but was negatively affected by tuna longlining effort in three species. Breeding success was affected by climate, with contrasted effects between species, with Southern Oscillation Index having an impact on all species but one. Differences in demographic responses depended on the foraging zone and season. In order to predict population trajectories of seabirds such as albatrosses, our results show the importance of assessing the relative influence of fishing and climate impacts on demography.     

Modelling population dynamics of seabirds: importance of the effects of climate fluctuations on breeding proportions

Environmental factors and their interactions are likely to have shaped specific breeding and survival strategies in top predators. Understanding how climatic factors affect populations requires detailed investigation of the demographic parameters and population modelling. Here, we focus on the modelling of a southern fulmar population over a 39 year period in Terre Adélie, Antarctica, using Leslie matrix models to understand from a prospective and retrospective point of view, how vital rates and their variations, affect the cyclic population dynamics. The elasticity of population growth rate to adult survival was very high (0.95), as predicted by a slow–fast continuum in avian life histories. However, adult survival varied little between years (mean±SD: 0.92±0.07), and could not explain the strong fluctuations observed in the number of breeders and chicks. The high temporal fluctuations of the proportion of breeders (0.57±0.22) and breeding success (0.70±0.14) had the strongest impact on population dynamics, despite their weak elasticities (0.05). Before the 1980s, population fluctuations were mainly explained by a direct impact of sea-ice extent (SIE) anomalies during summer (by a threshold effect) on the proportion of breeders. After 1980s, 3 years periodic population fluctuations were best predicted by 3 years cyclic variations in the proportion of breeders. SIE showed a marked change of periodicity during the 1980s, and SIE during winter fluctuated with a 3 years periodicity during 1980–1995. The marked change in population dynamics, through a change of the variations of the proportion of breeders, may be explained in the light of a regime shift that probably occurred around the 1980s, and which affected the sea ice environment, the availability of prey, and thus the demographic parameters and population dynamics of southern fulmars.     

Environmental response of upper trophic-level predators reveals a system change in an Antarctic marine ecosystem

Long-term changes in the physical environment in the Antarctic Peninsula region have significant potential for affecting populations of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), a keystone food web species. In order to investigate this, we analysed data on krill-eating predators at South Georgia from 1980 to 2000. Indices of population size and reproductive performance showed declines in all species and an increase in the frequency of years of low reproductive output. Changes in the population structure of krill and its relationship with reproductive performance suggested that the biomass of krill within the largest size class was sufficient to support predator demand in the 1980s but not in the 1990s. We suggest that the effects of underlying changes in the system on the krill population structure have been amplified by predator-induced mortality, resulting in breeding predators now regularly operating close to the limit of krill availability. Understanding how krill demography is affected by changes in physical environmental factors and by predator consumption and how, in turn, this influences predator performance and survival, is one of the keys to predicting future change in Antarctic marine ecosystems.     

Spatially Extensive Standardized Surveys Reveal Widespread,Multi-Decadal Increase in East Antarctic Adélie Penguin Populations

Seabirds are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because they integrate across changes in the lower trophic levels and the physical environment. Signals from this key group of species can indicate broad scale impacts or response to environmental change. Recent studies of penguin populations, the most commonly abundant Antarctic seabirds in the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea, have demonstrated that physical changes in Antarctic marine environments have profound effects on biota at high trophic levels. Large populations of the circumpolar-breeding Adélie penguin occur in East Antarctica, but direct, standardized population data across much of this vast coastline have been more limited than in other Antarctic regions. We combine extensive new population survey data, new population estimation methods, and re-interpreted historical survey data to assess decadal-scale change in East Antarctic Adélie penguin breeding populations. We show that, in contrast to the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea where breeding populations have decreased or shown variable trends over the last 30 years, East Antarctic regional populations have almost doubled in abundance since the 1980’s and have been increasing since the earliest counts in the 1960’s. The population changes are associated with five-year lagged changes in the physical environment, suggesting that the changing environment impacts primarily on the pre-breeding age classes. East Antarctic marine ecosystems have been subject to a number of changes over the last 50 years which may have influenced Adélie penguin population growth, including decadal-scale climate variation, an inferred mid-20th century sea-ice contraction, and early-to-mid 20^th century exploitation of fish and whale populations.     

锡林河流域羊草草原植物种群和功能群的长期变异性及其对群落稳定性的影响

 分析了内蒙古锡林河流域羊草(Leymus chinensis)草原群落植物种群、功能群和群落生物量的长期变异性,以及植物功能群间的补偿作用对群落稳定性的影响,结果表明：从种群水平到功能群和群落水平,地上生物量的年度间变异性逐渐降低,而稳定性则逐渐增加。植物功能群组成对群落稳定性具有更强烈的影响,在植物生活型功能群组成中多年生根茎禾草与多年生丛生禾草和多年生杂类草功能群,在生物量的年度变化上具有补偿作用,在生态类群组成中,旱生植物与中旱生植物也具有补偿作用。植物种群多度的长期变异性可能依赖于物种对环境波动的敏感性和种间相互作用对环境波动的放大效应,生物多样性使物种对环境波动响应的多样性增加,并通过不同响应类型(功能群)间的补偿作用使群落稳定性增加。     

Relationships between sea ice concentration, sea surface temperature and demographic traits of thin-billed prions

Understanding the effects of environmental variations on ecosystems is a major topic in ecology. In this study, we estimated demographic parameters of a seabird population, the thin-billed prion (Pachyptila belcheri) at Kerguelen Islands, and then tested for relationships with inter-annual variations of climatic indices, using long-term capture–recapture data. The annual adult survival probability was 0.825±0.009 and the breeding success was 0.519±0.090. Sea surface temperature anomalies were negatively related with breeding success. By contrast, winter sea ice concentration in the Antarctic seasonal ice zone seemed to negatively influence adult survival. This suggests a connection between sub-Antarctic and Antarctic ecosystems. The actual context of large climatic changes in the Austral Ocean seems to explain a large part of the decreasing trends observed for both the breeding success and the adult survival. Thus, a decrease of the population size of thin-billed prions at Kerguelen could be strongly suspected in the near future.     

Environmental variation and experience-related differences in the demography of the long-lived black-browed albatross

1. It has been largely demonstrated that demographic performances of animals increase with age or experience as a result of an improvement of foraging skills, an increasing reproductive effort or a selection process. However, little is known about the age or experience-related response of populations to environmental variations. Theoretical studies consider that age-related variations of the performances are greater under more restricting conditions, but this has rarely been tested. 2. We tested this hypothesis on a long-lived species, black browed albatross Thalassarche melanophrys Temminck, using a long-term capture-mark-recapture data set. We investigated the responses of a population to climate, by studying the effects of climatic factors and breeding experience on survival and breeding success. 3. First-time breeders appear to be poorer performers compared with experienced adults, with lower reproductive success and lower survival. In addition, interannual variations of demographic traits were partly explained by climatic indices, reflecting environmental variations. The survival probability of black-browed albatrosses varied with experience and climate, and differences being greater under harsh conditions. By contrast, the reproductive success of inexperienced individuals was affected by climatic fluctuations in the same way as the experienced ones. 4. First breeding event acts as a strong selective process on the highly heterogeneous class of inexperienced individuals, suggesting the increase in survival and breeding success with experience may mainly reflect a reduction in the heterogeneity among individual qualities.     

Comparing temporal patterns in body condition of ringed seals living within their core geographic range with those living at the edge

Ecological theory suggests that demographic responses by populations to environmental change vary depending on whether individuals inhabit central or peripheral regions within the species’ geographic range. Here, we tested this prediction by comparing a population of ringed seals Pusa hispida located at high latitudes as part of their core range (core) with a population located at the southern extremity of their range (peripheral). First, we compared the two regions’ environmental trends in timing of sea-ice breakup and freeze-up, open-water duration and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We found that the core region shifted to progressively warmer conditions in the early 1990s; whereas, in the peripheral region, the warming trend shifted in 1999 to one with no warming trend but high inter-annual variability. Next, we examined how body condition, inferred from blubber depth, responded to temporal changes in sea-ice and climatic variables – variables that have been shown to influence ringed seal demography. Core seals displayed minimal seasonal changes in body condition; whereas peripheral seals displayed a 20–60% amplitude seasonal change in body condition with a phase shift to earlier initiation of fat accumulation and loss. Finally, we tested for interannual differences and found that both core and peripheral seals responded similarly with decreased body condition following more positive NAO. Environmental variables influenced body condition in opposite directions between the two regions with core seals declining in body condition with later spring breakup and shorter open-water duration, whereas peripheral seals showed opposite relationships. Seals living at the core likely benefit from an evolved match between adaptation and environmental variation resulting in dampened seasonal and interannual fluctuations in body condition. Knowledge of how different populations respond to environmental change depending on geographic location within a species range can assist in anticipating population specific responses to climate warming.     

Climate change and breeding parameters of great and blue tits throughout the western Palaearctic

Increasing evidence suggests that climate change has consequences on avian breeding phenology. Here, variations in laying date and clutch size of great tit Parus major and blue tit Parus caeruleus within and between breeding populations through the western Palaearctic are examined in relation to climatic fluctuations, measured by the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Within and across breeding sites, laying date was related to winter‐NAO index such that great and blue tit females lay earlier after warmer, moister winters (positive values of winter NAO‐index). The present study shows that for most populations there is an advancement of laying date, but the rate of change with respect to NAO significantly differed geographically across the western Palaearctic and did not differ between species. However, clutch size of great and blue tits was not affected by climatic fluctuations, presumably because the whole season is being shifted, but not in relation to food supplies. These combined analyses for the two species controlled for potentially confounding variables such as latitude, longitude, elevation and habitat of each study site.     

Climate effects on offspring sex ratio in a viviparous lizard

1. Understanding individual and population responses to climate change is emerging as an important challenge. Because many phenotypic traits are sensitive to environmental conditions, directional climate change could significantly alter trait distribution within populations and may generate an evolutionary response. 2. In species with environment-dependent sex determination, climate change may lead to skewed sex ratios at hatching or birth. However, there are virtually no empirical data on the putative link between climatic parameters and sex ratios from natural populations. 3. We monitored a natural population of viviparous lizards with temperature-dependent sex determination (Niveoscincus ocellatus) over seven field seasons. Sex ratios at birth fluctuated significantly among years and closely tracked thermal conditions in the field, with the proportion of male offspring increasing in colder years. 4. This is the first study to demonstrate the effect of local climatic conditions (e.g. temperature) on offspring sex ratio fluctuations in a free-living population of a viviparous ectotherm. A succession of warmer-than-usual years (as predicted under many climate-change scenarios) likely would generate female-biased sex ratios at birth, while an increase in interannual variation (as also predicted under climate change scenarios) could lead to significant fluctuations in cohort sex ratios. If cohort sex ratio bias at birth leads to adult sex ratio bias, long-term directional changes in thermal conditions may have important effects on population dynamics in this species.     

Demographic responses of eastern bluebirds to climatic variability in northeastern Arkansas

As climate change continues to alter temperature and precipitation patterns, numerous species have declined. However, populations of some species that show responses to climate change, such as eastern bluebirds (Sialia sialis), have increased or remained stable nationwide. To understand how species are adapting to climate change, we estimated demographic parameters and their responses to climatic variability, using nesting and banding-recapture data between 2003 and 2018 in a northeastern Arkansas eastern bluebird population. Increasing variability in precipitation in the nonbreeding season negatively affected hatchability. Hatching success was negatively affected by increasing variability in maximum temperatures and the number of hot days during the breeding season, but positively affected by increasing winter snow depth. Adult survival was positively affected by increasing snow depth and variability in the number of hot days during the breeding season, but negatively affected by increasing variability in nonbreeding season temperatures. Our results demonstrate that for this study population, annual breeding parameters, though canalized against interannual environmental variation, were affected by seasonal climatic variability. Although climate change may benefit bluebird survival due to increasing variability in winter temperatures and the number of hot days, climatic variability negatively affected breeding parameters and is expected to increase. Because breeding parameters are typically the drivers of population growth rate in short-lived species, these results raise concern for the future of this population of eastern bluebirds.     

Cross-scale environmental influences on migratory stopover behaviour

Migratory species may be especially sensitive to climate change because their lifecycles are affected by dynamic ecological processes operating at global spatial scales. Insight into environmental effects upon en route decisions by migrants can therefore be a critical first step toward assessing their vulnerability to future climatic shifts. We extracted behaviour-related parameters from a recent formulation of multistate mark–recapture models, and used them to evaluate the importance of variation in local weather and broad-scale climate to decisions made by autumn passerine migrants at a coastal stopover site in Atlantic Canada. We found dramatic interannual fluctuations in the proportion of migrants that were transient (departing within a day of arrival), with annual average values ranging from 24% to 96% over the years 1996–2007. However, the relationships of stopover behaviour (transience and departure probability) to local weather (wind and precipitation) and to regional climatic fluctuations were similar across three distinct species groups and for birds of different fuel-loads, indicating the potential for both immediate (day-to-day) and long-term environmental influences (spanning several seasons). This cross-scale approach contributes valuable information toward the conservation of migrants in the face of a changing climate by (i) quantifying environmental influences on stopover behaviour in broad temporal and geographic contexts, and (ii) demonstrating largely parallel interannual variation in stopover site-use among birds with contrasting migratory timing and strategies.     

Regional climatic warming drives long-term community changes of British marine fish

Climatic change has been implicated as the cause of abundance fluctuations in marine fish populations worldwide, but the effects on whole communities are poorly understood. We examined the effects of regional climatic change on two fish assemblages using independent datasets from inshore marine (English Channel, 1913-2002) and estuarine environments (Bristol Channel, 1981-2001). Our results show that climatic change has had dramatic effects on community composition. Each assemblage contained a subset of dominant species whose abundances were strongly linked to annual mean sea-surface temperature. Species' latitudinal ranges were not good predictors of species-level responses, however, and the same species did not show congruent trends between sites. This suggests that within a region, populations of the same species may respond differently to climatic change, possibly owing to additional local environmental determinants, interspecific ecological interactions and dispersal capacity. This will make species-level responses difficult to predict within geographically differentiated communities.     

Impacts of predator-mediated interactions along a climatic gradient on the population dynamics of an alpine bird

According to classic theory, species'' population dynamics and distributions are less influenced by species interactions under harsh climatic conditions compared to under more benign climatic conditions. In alpine and boreal ecosystems in Fennoscandia, the cyclic dynamics of rodents strongly affect many other species, including ground-nesting birds such as ptarmigan. According to the ‘alternative prey hypothesis’ (APH), the densities of ground-nesting birds and rodents are positively associated due to predator–prey dynamics and prey-switching. However, it remains unclear how the strength of these predator-mediated interactions change along a climatic harshness gradient in comparison with the effects of climatic variation. We built a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the sensitivity of ptarmigan populations to interannual variation in climate and rodent occurrence across Norway during 2007–2017. Ptarmigan abundance was positively linked with rodent occurrence, consistent with the APH. Moreover, we found that the link between ptarmigan abundance and rodent dynamics was strongest in colder regions. Our study highlights how species interactions play an important role in population dynamics of species at high latitudes and suggests that they can become even more important in the most climatically harsh regions.     

Did glacial advances during the Pleistocene influence differently the demographic histories of benthic and pelagic Antarctic shelf fishes? – Inferences from intraspecific mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence diversity

Background  

Circum-Antarctic waters harbour a rare example of a marine species flock – the Notothenioid fish, most species of which are restricted to the continental shelf. It remains an open question as to how they survived Pleistocene climatic fluctuations characterised by repeated advances of continental glaciers as far as the shelf break that probably resulted in a loss of habitat for benthic organisms. Pelagic ecosystems, on the other hand, might have flourished during glacial maxima due to the northward expansion of Antarctic polar waters. In order to better understand the role of ecological traits in Quaternary climatic fluctuations, we performed demographic analyses of populations of four fish species from the tribe Trematominae, including both fully benthic and pelagic species using the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and an intron from the nuclear S7 gene.     

Long-term population trends in seven Antarctic seabirds at Pointe Géologie (Terre Adélie) Human impact compared with environmental change

Antarctic seabird populations have been much studied over the last decades as bioindicators of the nature of variability in the Southern Ocean marine ecosystem, and most attention has been focused on the role of food supply and the extent of sea ice. In addition, the rapid spread of tourism and the activities of researchers since the early 1960s have raised questions related to their real and potential impact on bird populations. Our data sets start in 1952 for several species of Antarctic seabirds and this study documents the trends over a 14-year period (1985–1999) in seven species breeding on Pointe Géologie archipelago (Terre Adélie, Antarctica). This is the first study where the direct impact of destruction of breeding sites (for building of an airstrip) is examined and where such long-term populations trends have been assessed in such a number of Antarctic species at one site. Trends from 1985 show that for the whole archipelago and when excluding islands destroyed, Adélie penguins and south polar skuas were the only species to show a significant increase (>3.5% annual change). The others species showed opposite trends, three increasing slightly (southern fulmars +0.4%, cape petrels +2.3%, snow petrels +0.9%) and two decreasing (emperor penguin −0.9%, southern giant petrel −3.9%). Three species particularly affected by the destruction of their breeding habitat (Adélie penguin, cape petrel, snow petrel) showed the capability to restore their populations. The availability of food and nesting sites is discussed in relation to environmental change. Species feeding on krill (Adélie penguins and cape petrels) increased more than other species; however, decrease of ice cover can increase availability of nesting sites. The importance of long-term studies is shown when assessing the role of human activities in Antarctica compared to larger-scale changes. Accepted: 18 September 2000     

Astronomically forced climate change in the Kenyan Rift Valley 2.7-2.55 Ma: implications for the evolution of early hominin ecosystems

Global climate change, linked to astronomical forcing factors, has been implicated in faunal evolutionary change in equatorial Africa, including the origin and diversification of hominin lineages. Empirical terrestrial data demonstrating that orbital forcing has a significant effect, or is detectable, at early hominin sites in equatorial continental interiors during the Pliocene, however, remain limited. Sedimentation patterns in the Baringo Basin within the Central Kenyan Rift Valley between ca. 2.7 and 2.55 Ma, controlled by climatic factors, provide a detailed paleoenvironmental record spanning 35 fossil vertebrate localities, including three hominin sites. The succession includes a sequence of diatomites that record rhythmic cycling of major freshwater lake systems consistent with approximately 23-kyr Milankovitch precessional periodicity. The temporal framework of shifting precipitation patterns, relative to Pliocene insolation curves, implicate African monsoonal climatic control and indicate that climatic fluctuations in Rift Valley ecosystems were paced by global climatic change documented in marine cores. These data provide direct evidence of orbitally mediated environmental change at Pliocene Rift Valley hominin fossil localities, providing a unique opportunity to assess the evolutionary effect of short-term climatic flux on late Pliocene East African terrestrial communities.     

Large-scale effect of climate change on breeding parameters of pied flycatchers in Western Europe

Variations in laying date and clutch size of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca across populations throughout western Europe are examined in relation to climatic fluctuations, measured by the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Across breeding sites, the winter-NAO index affected laying date such that females lay earlier after warmer and moister winters (positive values of winter NAO-index). Female pied flycatchers breed progressively earlier because presumably the whole breeding season is being shifted, as a direct result of the positive values of winter NAO-index. Moreover, clutch size of pied flycatchers across populations was negatively related to winter NAO-index during the last 50 yr. These analyses controlled for potentially confounding variables such as latitude, longitude, elevation and habitat of each study site. The present study conclude that pied flycatchers across western Europe are breeding earlier and laying smaller clutch sizes and that the most likely cause is a long-term increase in spring temperature. On the other hand, this study shows that climate change may not act uniformly between breeding populations in Western Europe. From those results, this study concludes that northern pied flycatcher populations are more sensitive to climate change than southern populations breeding in montane habitats.