Combining hydrology and mosquito population models to identify the drivers of rift valley Fever emergence in semi-arid regions of west Africa

Background

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne viral zoonosis of increasing global importance. RVF virus (RVFV) is transmitted either through exposure to infected animals or through bites from different species of infected mosquitoes, mainly of Aedes and Culex genera. These mosquitoes are very sensitive to environmental conditions, which may determine their presence, biology, and abundance. In East Africa, RVF outbreaks are known to be closely associated with heavy rainfall events, unlike in the semi-arid regions of West Africa where the drivers of RVF emergence remain poorly understood. The assumed importance of temporary ponds and rainfall temporal distribution therefore needs to be investigated.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A hydrological model is combined with a mosquito population model to predict the abundance of the two main mosquito species (Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes) involved in RVFV transmission in Senegal. The study area is an agropastoral zone located in the Ferlo Valley, characterized by a dense network of temporary water ponds which constitute mosquito breeding sites.The hydrological model uses daily rainfall as input to simulate variations of pond surface areas. The mosquito population model is mechanistic, considers both aquatic and adult stages and is driven by pond dynamics. Once validated using hydrological and entomological field data, the model was used to simulate the abundance dynamics of the two mosquito species over a 43-year period (1961–2003). We analysed the predicted dynamics of mosquito populations with regards to the years of main outbreaks. The results showed that the main RVF outbreaks occurred during years with simultaneous high abundances of both species.

Conclusion/Significance

Our study provides for the first time a mechanistic insight on RVFV transmission in West Africa. It highlights the complementary roles of Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes mosquitoes in virus transmission, and recommends the identification of rainfall patterns favourable for RVFV amplification.     

Ecology and migration patterns of solitary red locusts,Nomadacris septemfasciata (Serville) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in southwestern Madagascar

Red locusts frequently cause crop damage in Madagascar. This problem has worsened in recent years, likely due to the intensive deforestation that is under way. Little is known about this locust In Madagascar, contrary to continental Africa. Several studies have been carried out in southwestern Madagascar, where locust damage is regularly reported, with the aim of determining the cause of recent outbreaks and improving control strategies—they included surveys of rural inhabitants and an analysis of over 25 years of archival data at the Centre national antiacridien (Malagasy locust control centre). The results revealed several zones between which the red locust—a single-generation species that undergoes imaginal diapause in the dry season—seasonally migrates on a northeast to southwest track, and vice versa, depending on rainfall and wind patterns. The migration dynamics and interannual variations associated with rainfall irregularity certainly partially account for the recurrence of red locust outbreaks in Madagascar.     

Non-target grasshoppers as indicators of the side-effects of chemical locust control in the Karoo, South Africa

In most locust or grasshopper control programmes, the proximate aim is to suppress grasshopper numbers. However, in the semi-arid Karoo, South Africa, only the brown locust (Locustana pardalina) has significant pest status. Non-target grasshoppers form a conspicuous and important part of the Karoo ecosystem, many being endemic. Grasshopper diversity was monitored in treated and untreated plots (0.25 ha) to establish the impact of spraying. Grasshopper abundance was significantly reduced one day after treatment. Vagile species recovered by immigration from the surrounding areas following the breakdown of chemical residues. Endemic apterous bushhoppers with low vagility recovered the following season after rainfall triggered hatching. Grasshopper numbers hatching in treated plots were significantly lower than in untreated plots the following summer season because of a reduction in the number of individuals in the preceding generation. However, species composition was similar to untreated plots and this reduction is unlikely to have significant, long-term biological effects in such small treated areas (0.25 ha being usual for hopper band control). The rate of recovery of grasshoppers, particularly bushhoppers, was linked to rainfall indicating that the timing of control relative to rainfall is important. Grasshopper assemblages are potentially useful indicators of the effect of chemical locust control in the Karoo.     

Climate-based models for West Nile <Emphasis Type="Italic">Culex</Emphasis> mosquito vectors in the Northeastern US

Climate-based models simulating Culex mosquito population abundance in the Northeastern US were developed. Two West Nile vector species, Culex pipiens and Culex restuans, were included in model simulations. The model was optimized by a parameter-space search within biological bounds. Mosquito population dynamics were driven by major environmental factors including temperature, rainfall, evaporation rate and photoperiod. The results show a strong correlation between the timing of early population increases (as early warning of West Nile virus risk) and decreases in late summer. Simulated abundance was highly correlated with actual mosquito capture in New Jersey light traps and validated with field data. This climate-based model simulates the population dynamics of both the adult and immature mosquito life stage of Culex arbovirus vectors in the Northeastern US. It is expected to have direct and practical application for mosquito control and West Nile prevention programs.     

Landscape structure and locust swarming: a satellite's eye view

Desert locust Schistocerca gregaria outbreaks consistently start in the same places, suggesting that certain landscapes are particularly favourable for outbreaking. Outbreaks are generated by multiplication, concentration and gregarisation of locust populations. Previous research has shown how small-scale vegetation patterns in desert ecosystems influence locust gregarisation; the present study examines the effects of large-scale landscape structure on locust multiplication and concentration. NOAA/AVHRR satellite imagery was used to relate abundance and spatial distribution of resources at the landscape scale to the historical record of locust outbreaks. Threshold NDVI values were investigated to define what constitutes 'resource' for locusts. The first part of the study showed that abundance and spatial distribution of resource were not sufficient to distinguish between outbreak and non-outbreak areas in the western part of the locust distribution area. Thus, outbreak danger zones cannot be identified by landscape structure at this spatial resolution. The second analysis investigated spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation growth in two locust breeding areas with very different landscape structure; in both cases, the patterns differed significantly between outbreaking and non-outbreaking years. In Mauritania, a flat homogeneous desert landscape, both resource abundance and fragmentation were higher in outbreaking years. On the Red Sea coast, a fragmented landscape, resource spatial distribution was consistent between years, and abundance alone was a significant predictor of outbreaking. High resource abundance promotes locust multiplication, and contraction of resource into small patches increases locust concentration; these two mechanisms explain how landscape structure influences locust outbreaking.     

Distribution of twelve moist forest canopy tree species in Liberia and Côte d'Ivoire: response curves to a climatic gradient

Abstract. The occurrence and abundance of 12 canopy tree species from the moist tropical forests of West Africa have been studied in relation to a climatic gradient. We focused on environmental factors related to water availability: annual amount of rainfall, the length of the dry season, and cumulative water deficit. Species occurrence and abundance data are used for 39 forest sites in Liberia and southwest Côte d'Ivoire. Species responses are modelled using a set of five increasingly complex models, ranging from a no-trend model to a skewed bell-shaped response curve. The study species show different distribution patterns. Most of them suggest a close relationship to climatic conditions. Fitting of species occurrence data to each of the three climatic factors results in most cases in simple models. In only one out of 36 cases a bell-shaped response curve is needed to describe the data. Four of the 12 species show no response to the climatic factors when only occurrence is evaluated. When abundance data are used, in 33 of the 36 cases significant response models are found. In general these are much more complex than in the cases of species occurrence data: in 10 of the 36 cases a bell-shaped response model is found to describe the data best. This is in contrast with the widespread belief that species response curves are bell-shaped: within the forest zone in the area studied this is not generally the case. The importance of the three climatic factors for the distribution of the species is evaluated: for four species mean annual rainfall is the most important variable, for four species the length of the dry period, and for one species cumulative water deficit. Consequently, the assumption that mean annual rainfall is the most important factor determining tree species distribution in West African forests is not correct. Species response models to climatic factors show where species have their geographical optima. Implications for forest management are briefly discussed.     

蝗虫的发生与防控

蝗虫暴发引起的灾害是全球重要的生物灾害,可影响到全世界十分之一的人口。自2019年,东部非洲、西亚、南亚多个国家遭遇严重的沙漠蝗虫灾害,这场蝗灾不但对该区域的粮食安全构成严重威胁,而且还有可能引发严重的人道主义危机。为了制定合理的防治方案,实施有效防控,避免大规模蝗灾的发生,需要掌握蝗虫的生物学、生态学、暴发和为害规律、防治策略和技术特点及其进展等。本文介绍了世界各地包括沙漠蝗、飞蝗、澳大利亚疫蝗在内的11种可以引起灾害的重要种类的主要分布、为害和特性,并对国内外蝗虫防治策略、技术进展进行了重点综述。最后,针对目前蝗虫防治存在的问题提出了相应建议。     

Population dynamics in a cyclic environment: consequences of cyclic food abundance on tawny owl reproduction and survival

1. Understanding which factors regulate population dynamics may help us to understand how a population would respond to environmental change, and why some populations are declining.
2. In southern Finland, vole abundance shows a three-phased cycle of low, increase and decrease phases, but these have been fading out in recent years. During five such cycles (1981–1995), all tawny owls Strix aluco were censused in a 250-km² study area, and their reproduction and survival were monitored.
3. Males and females showed similar dynamics, but experienced breeders recruited more offspring and had higher survival than first breeders. Offspring recruitment, but not survival of breeding individuals varied in accordance with vole abundance.
4. The population's numerical response to prey abundance was primarily due to first-breeding individuals entering the population in the increase phase when immigration was the highest. First-breeding birds were younger, but experienced breeders were older in more favourable vole years.
5. A stage-specific matrix population model integrating survival and fecundity showed that, despite obvious variation in fecundity between vole cycle phases, this variation had limited importance for overall tawny owl population dynamics, but that the survival of experienced breeders during the low phase is most important for population growth.
6. Model and data agreed that the vole cycle drives the dynamics of this avian predator by limiting the recruitment of new breeders during the low phase. Population dynamics hence differ not only from the classic example of the species in a more temperate region in the UK where the number of territories is stable across years, but also from the dynamics of other avian vole predators in Fennoscandia where the recurring crash in vole abundance drastically lowers adult survival thereby creating vacancies.     

Population structure, speciation, and introgression in the Anopheles gambiae complex

We review here what is known about the population structure and evolutionary dynamics of members of the Anopheles gambiae complex with emphasis on the situation in West Africa. First, the importance of the 2nd chromosome inversion polymorphism is demonstrated especially in adaptation to levels of aridity, a major environmental variable in Africa. This affects the distribution of karyotypes on both a macro- and micro-geographic scale as well as temporally. Such differentiation leads to karyotypes being differentially effective transmitters of malaria and differentially susceptible to indoor residual spraying of insecticides. Second, we review the evidence that cryptic taxa, especially in An. gambiae s.s., exist. This observation stems from both karyotype studies and molecular studies. It is abundantly clear that West African populations of An. gambiae s.s. are often not panmictic units, with premating factors evidently acting to maintain distinct genetic forms. Third, we review phylogenetic studies that have revealed the presence of introgression between the two most important vectors, An. gambiae and An. arabiensis. This is most evident for the 2nd chromosome inversions. This interpretation of phylogenetic data is consistent with a direct laboratory study indicating inversions in this chromosome are stably maintained in back-crossed populations. All of this information has led to the view that members of the An. gambiae complex are highly variable with an abundance of adaptive genetic variation. This presents a significant challenge to vector control programs designed to reduce malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Community structure in temporary freshwater pools: disentangling the effects of habitat size and hydroregime

1. Hydroregime (duration, frequency and predictability of the aquatic phase) is a key feature of temporary aquatic habitats that not only moulds community structure and diversity (species sorting) but also life history characteristics of the inhabitants (natural selection). However, since hydroregime is a complex multidimensional entity that cannot be estimated from short term observations, morphometric variables are commonly used as proxies for hydroregime, making it impossible to separate effects of habitat size and hydroregime on biota.
2. We have used a simple hydrological model, validated with recent (average r ² = 96%) and historic water level observations (average r ² = 81%), to accurately reconstruct hydroregime based on historical rainfall and evaporation data in a cluster of 36 temporary rock pools in central South Africa.
3. Using the model output, we demonstrated that both hydroregime and habitat size had unique and shared effects on temporary pool biota and that these effects depended on the dispersal modes of the taxa. Model-generated hydrological data explained more variation in community patterns than short-term observations of hydroperiod. Hydroregime was more important for passive dispersers than for active dispersers that can migrate when pools dry up. Basin morphometry was a relatively poor predictor of pool hydroregime. We concluded that simple modelling may greatly improve the resolution of studies linking hydroregime to biological variables.
4. An accurate account of hydrological variation provides a firm foundation to understand community and population structure and dynamics in temporary aquatic habitats. Since many of these habitats have been destroyed or degraded in recent decades, our findings and tools may contribute to the development of reliable conservation guidelines.     

Distribution and Prevalence of Parasitic Nematodes of Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) in Burkina Faso

A comprehensive survey of the plant parasitic nematodes associated with cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) production fields was carried out in the three primary agro-climatic zones of Burkina Faso in West Africa. Across the three zones, a total of 109 samples were collected from the farms of 32 villages to provide a representative coverage of the cowpea production areas. Samples of rhizosphere soil and samples of roots from actively growing cowpea plants were collected during mid- to late-season. Twelve plant-parasitic nematode genera were identified, of which six appeared to have significant parasitic potential on cowpea based on their frequency and abundance. These included Helicotylenchus, Meloidogyne, Pratylenchus, Scutellonema, Telotylenchus, and Tylenchorhynchus. Criconemella and Rotylenchulus also had significant levels of abundance and frequency, respectively. Of the primary genera, Meloidogyne, Pratylenchus, and Scutellonema contained species which are known or suspected to cause losses of cowpea yield in other parts of the world. According to the prevalence and distribution of these genera in Burkina Faso, their potential for damage to cowpea increased from the dry Sahelian semi-desert zone in the north (annual rainfall < 600 mm/year), through the north-central Soudanian zone (annual rainfall of 600-800 mm/year), to the wet Soudanian zone (annual rainfall ≥ 1000 mm) in the more humid south-western region of the country. This distribution trend was particularly apparent for the endoparasitic nematode Meloidogyne and the migratory endoparasite Pratylenchus.     

From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact

General circulation models (GCM) are increasingly capable of making relevant predictions of seasonal and long-term climate variability, thus improving prospects of predicting impact on crop yields. This is particularly important for semi-arid West Africa where climate variability and drought threaten food security. Translating GCM outputs into attainable crop yields is difficult because GCM grid boxes are of larger scale than the processes governing yield, involving partitioning of rain among runoff, evaporation, transpiration, drainage and storage at plot scale. This study analyses the bias introduced to crop simulation when climatic data is aggregated spatially or in time, resulting in loss of relevant variation. A detailed case study was conducted using historical weather data for Senegal, applied to the crop model SARRA-H (version for millet). The study was then extended to a 10 degrees N-17 degrees N climatic gradient and a 31 year climate sequence to evaluate yield sensitivity to the variability of solar radiation and rainfall. Finally, a down-scaling model called LGO (Lebel-Guillot-Onibon), generating local rain patterns from grid cell means, was used to restore the variability lost by aggregation. Results indicate that forcing the crop model with spatially aggregated rainfall causes yield overestimations of 10-50% in dry latitudes, but nearly none in humid zones, due to a biased fraction of rainfall available for crop transpiration. Aggregation of solar radiation data caused significant bias in wetter zones where radiation was limiting yield. Where climatic gradients are steep, these two situations can occur within the same GCM grid cell. Disaggregation of grid cell means into a pattern of virtual synoptic stations having high-resolution rainfall distribution removed much of the bias caused by aggregation and gave realistic simulations of yield. It is concluded that coupling of GCM outputs with plot level crop models can cause large systematic errors due to scale incompatibility. These errors can be avoided by transforming GCM outputs, especially rainfall, to simulate the variability found at plot level.     

Climate, food, density and wildlife population growth rate

1. The aim of this study was to derive and evaluate a priori models of the relationship between annual instantaneous population growth rate (r) and climate. These were derived from the numerical response of annual r and food, and the effect of climate on a parameter in the numerical response. The goodness of fit of a range of such deductive models to data on annual r of Soay sheep and red deer were evaluated using information-theoretic (AICc-based) analyses. 2. The analysis for sheep annual r showed negative effects of abundance and negative effects of the interaction of abundance and climate, measured as March rainfall (and winter NAO) in the best fitting models. The analysis for deer annual r showed a negative effect of deer abundance and a positive effect of climate measured as March rainfall (but a negative effect of winter NAO), but no interaction of abundance and climate in the best fitting models. 3. There was most support in the analysis of sheep dynamics for the ratio numerical response and the assumption that parameter J (equilibrium food per animal) was influenced by climate. In the analysis of deer dynamics there was most support for the numerical responses assuming effects of food and density (Ivlev and density, food and density, and additive responses) and slightly less support for the ratio numerical response. The evaluation of such models would be aided by the collection of and incorporation of food data into the analyses.     

Short‐term assessment of dung beetle response to carbosulfan treatment against desert locust in Sudan

The beneficial role of dung beetles (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) is well known. Potential risks to these beetles from the widespread use of insecticides against the desert locust, a significant plant pest in Africa, the Near East and South West Asia, have not been studied previously. Short‐term responses of dung beetles to carbamate carbosulfan (Marshal®, ultra low‐volume formulation, 100 g active ingredient ha^?1) were assessed during desert locust control operations at five sites within two major biotopes: Acacia tortilis shrubland and cultivated wetland; on the Red Sea Coast of Sudan. The study took place during January–February 2004. At each site, fresh dung from Zebu cows was placed in areas targeted for desert locust control. Dung pats were placed in plots in two areas and left for 24 h, before and after insecticide application. Beetles were extracted by floatation. There was a significant decrease in abundance between the pre‐ and post‐spray period in treated areas for the Scarabaeinae species Onthophagus margaritifer (a dark colour morph). In contrast, it was found that Aphodius lucidus and beetles at the subfamily level of Aphodiinae increased in numbers after insecticide treatment. Mortality and sublethal impacts as well as a repellent effect of the insecticide may explain the decrease in Onthophagus margaritifer, while the increase in Aphodiinae beetles could be an indirect response to lower numbers of Scarabaeinae beetles in competing for the same resource. These organisms and the applied methodology may be useful for environmental monitoring of desert locust control, thus further studies are suggested. The assessment also revealed a marked difference between the two biotopes with high abundance and species richness of dung beetles in A. tortilis shrubland, while these measures were low in the cultivated wetland. Five new species of dung beetles for Sudan were found in this study.     

On the origin of the desert locust Schistocerca gregaria (Forskål) (Orthoptera: Acrididae: Cyrtacanthacridinae)

The locust genus Schistocerca (Stål) has a transatlantic disjunction, which has been controversial for more than a century. Among 50 species within the genus, only one species, the desert locust (S. gregaria Forskål), occurs in the Old World, and the rest occur in the New World. Earlier taxonomists suggested that the desert locust is a migrant from America, but this view was strongly challenged when a large swarm of the desert locust successfully crossed the Atlantic Ocean from West Africa to the West Indies in 1988. The currently accepted view, supported by this incident, is that the New World species are descendants of a gregaria-like ancestor, and the desert locust would be ancestral to the rest of the genus. However, there is surprisingly little evidence to support this view other than the 1988 swarm. I present the most comprehensive phylogenetic study that suggests that the desert locust originated from the New World, contrary to the accepted view. I also present a hypothesis about how the ancestral Schistocerca might have colonized the New World in the first place in light of phylogenetic relationships with other cyrtacanthacridine genera.     

Oscillations in large mammal populations: are they related to predation or rainfall?

Cyclic population dynamics is relatively common among populations of small mammals in high latitudes but is not yet established among African savanna ungulates. However, oscillations may be expected in large mammal populations subject to quasi‐periodic oscillations in regional rainfall. We evaluated evidence for environmentally entrained oscillations in a large‐mammal predator–prey system in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, where rainfall exhibits quasi‐periodic oscillations. The evaluation is based on analysis of comparative changes in the abundance of twelve ungulate species throughout South Africa's KNP using population counts over the period 1965–1996. We present evidence suggesting that (i) twelve ungulate populations display cyclic variability with half‐periods ranging between 10 and 18 years, (ii) this variability was associated with lagged rainfall between 3 and 10 years back in the past for different ungulate species, and (iii) the ungulate species respond in contrasting ways to rainfall, with some reaching highest abundance during periods of low rainfall and others under conditions of high rainfall. These findings are not consistent with the response pattern we would expect if the population oscillations were driven directly by the rainfall influence on food availability. Instead they seem to be an outcome of predator–prey interactions, which are entrained by the effect of rainfall on habitat conditions affecting the relative susceptibility of the different ungulate species to predation.     

Are dams hotspots for Didymosphenia geminata blooms?

1. The diatom Didymosphenia geminata has emerged in recent years as a globally invasive species. Although considered native to North America, reports of nuisance blooms have increased over the last decade.
2. Previously, we determined that D. geminata was ubiquitous in two major headwaters of the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB), Alberta, Canada, but found it only bloomed at certain sites, including those immediately downstream from dam outfalls. To evaluate the role of dams in the abundance and blooming of D. geminata , we compared sites just below dams to unregulated upstream reference sites in six dammed rivers of the SSRB.
3. There was a high degree of seasonal variability in D. geminata abundance among sites, but statistical analyses showed a significant propensity for the diatom to have higher cell densities and an increased frequency of blooms at dam sites.
4. Important predictor variables of D. geminata abundance included dam presence, water clarity and total phosphorus concentration. When data from dam sites were analysed, a multiple regression model using mean discharge and pH as independent predictors explained 73% of the variation in D. geminata cell density.
5. Analysis of 3 years of data from one study river (Red Deer River) revealed consistently higher D. geminata cell densities at the dam site compared to the upstream reference. This analysis also showed that average cell density fluctuated by orders of magnitude from year-to-year.
6. Due to the ecological and aesthetic concerns regarding the global spread and blooming of D. geminata , we recommend that dams be viewed as key candidates for mitigating blooms in flow regulated systems.     

Mapping the ranges and relative abundance of the two principal African malaria vectors,Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and An. arabiensis,using climate data.

Members of the Anopheles gambiae complex are major malaria vectors in Africa. We tested the hypothesis that the range and relative abundance of the two major vectors in the complex, An. gambiae sensu stricto and An. arabiensis, could be defined by climate. Climate was characterized at mosquito survey sites by extracting data for each location from climate surfaces using a Geographical Information System. Annual precipitation, together with annual and wet season temperature, defined the ranges of both vectors and were used to map suitable climate zones. Using data from West Africa, we found that where the species were sympatric, An. gambiae s.s. predominated in saturated environments, and An. arabiensis was more common in sites subject to desiccation (r2 = 0.875, p < 0.001). We used the nonlinear equation that best described this relationship to map habitat suitability across Africa. This simple model predicted accurately the relative abundance of both vectors in Tanzania (rs = 0.745, p = 0.002), where species composition is highly variable. The combined maps of species'' range and relative abundance showed very good agreement with published maps. This technique represents a new approach to mapping the distribution of malaria vectors over large areas and may facilitate species-specific vector control activities.     

Response of African humid tropical forests to recent rainfall anomalies

During the last decade, strong negative rainfall anomalies resulting from increased sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic have caused extensive droughts in rainforests of western Amazonia, exerting persistent effects on the forest canopy. In contrast, there have been no significant impacts on rainforests of West and Central Africa during the same period, despite large-scale droughts and rainfall anomalies during the same period. Using a combination of rainfall observations from meteorological stations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU; 1950–2009) and satellite observations of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM; 1998–2010), we show that West and Central Africa experienced strong negative water deficit (WD) anomalies over the last decade, particularly in 2005, 2006 and 2007. These anomalies were a continuation of an increasing drying trend in the region that started in the 1970s. We monitored the response of forests to extreme rainfall anomalies of the past decade by analysing the microwave scatterometer data from QuickSCAT (1999–2009) sensitive to variations in canopy water content and structure. Unlike in Amazonia, we found no significant impacts of extreme WD events on forests of Central Africa, suggesting potential adaptability of these forests to short-term severe droughts. Only forests near the savanna boundary in West Africa and in fragmented landscapes of the northern Congo Basin responded to extreme droughts with widespread canopy disturbance that lasted only during the period of WD. Time-series analyses of CRU and TRMM data show most regions in Central and West Africa experience seasonal or decadal extreme WDs (less than −600 mm). We hypothesize that the long-term historical extreme WDs with gradual drying trends in the 1970s have increased the adaptability of humid tropical forests in Africa to droughts.     

Does a ruderal strategy dominate the endemic flora of the West African forests?

Aim  To understand the distribution pattern of endemic plant species in West African rain forests, one of the global priority areas for biodiversity conservation.
Location  Upper Guinean forests, West Africa (Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo).
Methods  We used herbarium collections from the whole Upper Guinean region ( sensu White 1981) to analyse the distribution patterns of 216 vascular plant species (approximately one-third of the endemic flora ranging from herbs to trees) that are restricted to these rain forests. We related species distribution ranges and species commonness to the main environmental variables and species life-history traits.
Results  We found that most endemic species of West African forests have large distribution ranges and ruderal strategies. Among all plant life-forms, species with small ranges were restricted to very moist places whereas more widespread species were less dependent on the availability of water. These more common species seem able to tolerate drier conditions, indicated by the minimum rainfall conditions where they are found and the positive correlation with local habitat openness. Light-demanding endemics were more common and widespread than shade-tolerant species, and there was a trend towards wind-dispersed species having a higher proportion of records in open places. This suggests that how widespread and common an endemic species is depends on being able to tolerate open and drier conditions.
Main conclusions  A ruderal strategy seems to be key for understanding the success of endemics in the Upper Guinean forests, and indicates the important role of disturbances in shaping the composition of these tropical forests. Our results have large implications for predicting the potential effect of increasing drought on rare endemic plant species of West African forests.