The Genealogy of Samples in Models with Selection

We introduce the genealogy of a random sample of genes taken from a large haploid population that evolves according to random reproduction with selection and mutation. Without selection, the genealogy is described by Kingman''s well-known coalescent process. In the selective case, the genealogy of the sample is embedded in a graph with a coalescing and branching structure. We describe this graph, called the ancestral selection graph, and point out differences and similarities with Kingman''s coalescent. We present simulations for a two-allele model with symmetric mutation in which one of the alleles has a selective advantage over the other. We find that when the allele frequencies in the population are already in equilibrium, then the genealogy does not differ much from the neutral case. This is supported by rigorous results. Furthermore, we describe the ancestral selection graph for other selective models with finitely many selection classes, such as the K-allele models, infinitely-many-alleles models, DNA sequence models, and infinitely-many-sites models, and briefly discuss the diploid case.     

Population dynamics of sex-determining alleles in honey bees and self-incompatibility alleles in plants

Mathematical theories of the population dynamics of sex-determining alleles in honey bees are developed. It is shown that in an infinitely large population the equilibrium frequency of a sex allele is 1/n, where n is the number of alleles in the population, and the asymptotic rate of approach to this equilibrium is 2/(3n) per generation. Formulae for the distribution of allele frequencies and the effective and actual numbers of alleles that can be maintained in a finite population are derived by taking into account the population size and mutation rate. It is shown that the allele frequencies in a finite population may deviate considerably from 1/n. Using these results, available data on the number of sex alleles in honey bee populations are discussed. It is also shown that the number of self-incompatibility alleles in plants can be studied in a much simpler way by the method used in this paper. A brief discussion about general overdominant selection is presented.     

Unequal allelic frequencies at the self‐incompatibility locus within local populations of Prunus avium L.: an effect of population structure?

In this paper, we investigated the genetic structure and distribution of allelic frequencies at the gametophytic self-incompatibility locus in three populations of Prunus avium L. In line with theoretical predictions under balancing selection, genetic structure at the self-incompatibility locus was almost three times lower than at seven unlinked microsatellites. Furthermore, we found that S-allele frequencies in wild cherry populations departed significantly from the expected isoplethic distribution towards which balancing selection is expected to drive allelic frequencies (i.e. identical frequency equal to the inverse of the number of alleles in the population). To assess whether this departure could be caused either by drift alone or by population structure, we used numerical simulations to compare our observations with allelic frequency distributions expected : (1) within a single deme from a subdivided population with various levels of differentiation; and (2) within a finite panmictic population with identical allelic diversity. We also investigated the effects of sample size and degree of population structure on tests of departure from isoplethic equilibrium. Overall, our results showed that the observed allele frequency distributions were consistent with a model of subdivided population with demes linked by moderate migration rate.     

Maintenance of Genetic Variability under the Joint Effect of Mutation, Selection and Random Drift

Formulae are developed for the distribution of allele frequencies (the frequency spectrum), the mean number of alleles in a sample, and the mean and variance of heterozygosity under mutation pressure and under either genic or recessive selection. Numerical computations are carried out by using these formulae and Watterson's (1977) formula for the distribution of allele frequencies under overdominant selection. The following properties are observed: (1) The effect of selection on the distribution of allele frequencies is slight when 4Ns 相似文献   

The divergence of a polygenic system subject to stabilizing selection, mutation and drift

Polygenic variation can be maintained by a balance between mutation and stabilizing selection. When the alleles responsible for variation are rare, many classes of equilibria may be stable. The rate at which drift causes shifts between equilibria is investigated by integrating the gene frequency distribution W2N II (pq)4N mu-1. This integral can be found exactly, by numerical integration, or can be approximated by assuming that the full distribution of allele frequencies is approximately Gaussian. These methods are checked against simulations. Over a wide range of population sizes, drift will keep the population near an equilibrium which minimizes the genetic variance and the deviation from the selective optimum. Shifts between equilibria in this class occur at an appreciable rate if the product of population size and selection on each locus is small (Ns alpha 2 less than 10). The Gaussian approximation is accurate even when the underlying distribution is strongly skewed. Reproductive isolation evolves as populations shift to new combinations of alleles: however, this process is slow, approaching the neutral rate (approximately mu) in small populations.     

Neofunctionalization of duplicated genes under the pressure of gene conversion

Neofunctionalization occurs when a neofunctionalized allele is fixed in one of duplicated genes. This is a simple fixation process if duplicated genes accumulate mutations independently. However, the process is very complicated when duplicated genes undergo concerted evolution by gene conversion. Our simulations demonstrate that the process could be described with three distinct stages. First, a newly arisen neofunctionalized allele increases in frequency by selection, but gene conversion prevents its complete fixation. These two factors (selection and gene conversion) that work in opposite directions create an equilibrium, and the time during which the frequency of the neofunctionalized allele drifts around the equilibrium value is called the temporal equilibrium stage. During this temporal equilibrium stage, it is possible that gene conversion is inactivated by mutations, which allow the complete fixation of the neofunctionalized allele. And then, permanent neofunctionalization is achieved. This article develops basic population genetics theories on the process to permanent neofunctionalization under the pressure of gene conversion. We obtain the probability and time that the frequency of a newly arisen neofunctionalized allele reaches the equilibrium value. It is also found that during the temporal equilibrium stage, selection exhibits strong signature in the divergence in the DNA sequences between the duplicated genes. The spatial distribution of the divergence likely has a peak around the site targeted by selection. We provide an analytical expression of the pattern of divergence and apply it to the human red- and green-opsin genes. The theoretical prediction well fits the data when we assume that selection is operating for the two amino acid differences in exon 5, which are believed to account for the major part of the functional difference between the red and green opsins.     

The effect of selection on genealogies

The coalescent process can describe the effects of selection at linked loci only if selection is so strong that genotype frequencies evolve deterministically. Here, we develop methods proposed by Kaplan, Darden, and Hudson to find the effects of weak selection. We show that the overall effect is given by an extension to Price's equation: the change in properties such as moments of coalescence times is equal to the covariance between those properties and the fitness of the sample of genes. The distribution of coalescence times differs substantially between allelic classes, even in the absence of selection. However, the average coalescence time between randomly chosen genes is insensitive to the current allele frequency and is affected significantly by purifying selection only if deleterious mutations are common and selection is strong (i.e., the product of population size and selection coefficient, Ns>3). Balancing selection increases mean coalescence times, but the effect becomes large only when mutation rates between allelic classes are low and when selection is extremely strong. Our analysis supports previous simulations that show that selection has surprisingly little effect on genealogies. Moreover, small fluctuations in allele frequency due to random drift can greatly reduce any such effects. This will make it difficult to detect the action of selection from neutral variation alone.     

The effect of intragenic recombination on the number of alleles in a finite population

A two-site infinite allele model is constructed to study the effect of intragenic recombination on the number of neutral alleles and the distribution of their frequencies in a finite population. The results of theory and Monte Carlo simulation of the two-site model demonstrate that intragenic recombination significantly increases the mean and variance of the number of alleles when the rates of mutation and recombination are as large as the reciprocal of the population size. Data from natural populations indicate that this may be a significant process in generating variation and determining its distribution.     

Mutation-Selection Balance under Genomic Imprinting at an Autosomal Locus

I model the effect of genomic imprinting on the equilibrium allele frequencies at an autosomal diallelic locus subject to viability selection and mutation. The population size is assumed to be very large; male and female mutation rates may be unequal. Different models examine cases of the inactivation of one gene (with both complete and partial penetrance) and of differential expression of genes according to the parent of origin. In the simplest cases the frequency of the deleterious allele is approximately twice that of a dominant nonimprinting mutant, but considerably less than that of a recessive nonimprinting mutant. Under imprinting, selection and unequal mutation rates interact: other things being equal, male-biased mutation leads to lower mutant frequencies under maternal imprinting and higher frequencies under paternal imprinting. I also model cases where just one allele is imprintable (and the other not). These models allow us to predict the frequency of a failure to imprint in a normally imprinting system, as well as the frequency of imprinting at a standard nonimprinting locus.     

Important role of genetic drift in rapid polygenic adaptation

We analyzed a model to determine the factors that facilitate or limit rapid polygenic adaptation. This model includes population genetic terms of mutation and both directional and stabilizing selection on a highly polygenic trait in a diploid population of finite size. First, we derived the equilibrium distribution of the allele frequencies of the multilocus model by diffusion approximation. This formula describing the equilibrium allele frequencies as a mutation‐selection‐drift balance was examined by computer simulation using parameter values inferred for human height, a well‐studied polygenic trait. Second, assuming that a sudden environmental shift of the fitness optimum occurs while the population is in equilibrium, we analyzed the adaptation of the trait to the new optimum. The speed at which the trait mean approaches the new optimum increases with the equilibrium genetic variance. Thus, large population size and/or large mutation rate may facilitate rapid adaptation. Third, the contribution of an individual locus i to polygenic adaptation depends on the compound parameter , where is the effect size, the equilibrium frequency of the trait‐increasing allele of this locus, and . Thus, only loci with large values of this parameter contribute coherently to polygenic adaptation. Given that mutation rates are relatively small, this is more likely in large populations, in which the effects of drift are limited.     

Polymorphism and divergence for island-model species

Estimates of the scaled selection coefficient, gamma of Sawyer and Hartl, are shown to be remarkably robust to population subdivision. Estimates of mutation parameters and divergence times, in contrast, are very sensitive to subdivision. These results follow from an analysis of natural selection and genetic drift in the island model of subdivision in the limit of a very large number of subpopulations, or demes. In particular, a diffusion process is shown to hold for the average allele frequency among demes in which the level of subdivision sets the timescale of drift and selection and determines the dynamic equilibrium of allele frequencies among demes. This provides a framework for inference about mutation, selection, divergence, and migration when data are available from a number of unlinked nucleotide sites. The effects of subdivision on parameter estimates depend on the distribution of samples among demes. If samples are taken singly from different demes, the only effect of subdivision is in the rescaling of mutation and divergence-time parameters. If multiple samples are taken from one or more demes, high levels of within-deme relatedness lead to low levels of intraspecies polymorphism and increase the number of fixed differences between samples from two species. If subdivision is ignored, mutation parameters are underestimated and the species divergence time is overestimated, sometimes quite drastically. Estimates of the strength of selection are much less strongly affected and always in a conservative direction.     

On the distribution of allele frequencies in a diffusion model

An expression is derived and values tabulated for the expected allele frequencies and their variances, arranged in decreasing order in a population, from the finite and infinite alleles diffusion model in Watterson (1976). The neutral model and also a model with heterozygote selection are considered. Some observed ABO blood group allele frequencies are compared with the tabulated expected frequencies in the neutral three allele model. This extends the results of Watterson and Guess (1977) who tabulate the expected value of the most common allele. One test of neutrality previously advocated is to consider the distribution of F, the population homozygosity, conditional on G, the product of allele frequencies. However it is shown here that for a large number of alleles, F and G are asymptotically independent, the test would not be a good one in this case. A limit theorem is derived for the distribution of allele frequencies in the neutral model when the mutation rate is large. In this case F is shown to be asymptotically normal. An inequality is derived for the probability that the oldest allele in a population is amongst the r most frequent types. An inequality is also found for the probability that a sample will only contain representatives of the r most frequent allele types in the population.     

A finite locus effect diffusion model for the evolution of a quantitative trait

A diffusion model is constructed for the joint distribution of absolute locus effect sizes and allele frequencies for loci contributing to an additive quantitative trait under selection in a haploid, panmictic population. The model is designed to approximate a discrete model exactly in the limit as both population size and the number of loci affecting the trait tend to infinity. For the case when all loci have the same absolute effect size, formal multiple-timescale asymptotics are used to predict the long-time response of the population trait mean to selection. For the case where loci can take on either of two distinct effect sizes, not necessarily with equal probability, numerical solutions of the system indicate that response to selection of a quantitative trait is insensitive to the variability of the distribution of effect sizes when mutation is negligible.     

Allele Frequencies at Microsatellite Loci: The Stepwise Mutation Model Revisited

We summarize available data on the frequencies of alleles at microsatellite loci in human populations and compare observed distributions of allele frequencies to those generated by a simulation of the stepwise mutation model. We show that observed frequency distributions at 108 loci are consistent with the results of the model under the assumption that mutations cause an increase or decrease in repeat number by one and under the condition that the product Nu, where N is the effective population size and u is the mutation rate, is larger than one. We show that the variance of the distribution of allele sizes is a useful estimator of Nu and performs much better than previously suggested estimators for the stepwise mutation model. In the data, there is no correlation between the mean and variance in allele size at a locus or between the number of alleles and mean allele size, which suggests that the mutation rate at these loci is independent of allele size.     

On the fixation process of a beneficial mutation in a variable environment

A population that adapts to gradual environmental change will typically experience temporal variation in its population size and the selection pressure. On the basis of the mathematical theory of inhomogeneous branching processes, we present a framework to describe the fixation process of a single beneficial allele under these conditions. The approach allows for arbitrary time-dependence of the selection coefficient s(t) and the population size N(t), as may result from an underlying ecological model. We derive compact analytical approximations for the fixation probability and the distribution of passage times for the beneficial allele to reach a given intermediate frequency. We apply the formalism to several biologically relevant scenarios, such as linear or cyclic changes in the selection coefficient, and logistic population growth. Comparison with computer simulations shows that the analytical results are accurate for a large parameter range, as long as selection is not very weak.     

Expected Shannon Entropy and Shannon Differentiation between Subpopulations for Neutral Genes under the Finite Island Model

Shannon entropy H and related measures are increasingly used in molecular ecology and population genetics because (1) unlike measures based on heterozygosity or allele number, these measures weigh alleles in proportion to their population fraction, thus capturing a previously-ignored aspect of allele frequency distributions that may be important in many applications; (2) these measures connect directly to the rich predictive mathematics of information theory; (3) Shannon entropy is completely additive and has an explicitly hierarchical nature; and (4) Shannon entropy-based differentiation measures obey strong monotonicity properties that heterozygosity-based measures lack. We derive simple new expressions for the expected values of the Shannon entropy of the equilibrium allele distribution at a neutral locus in a single isolated population under two models of mutation: the infinite allele model and the stepwise mutation model. Surprisingly, this complex stochastic system for each model has an entropy expressable as a simple combination of well-known mathematical functions. Moreover, entropy- and heterozygosity-based measures for each model are linked by simple relationships that are shown by simulations to be approximately valid even far from equilibrium. We also identify a bridge between the two models of mutation. We apply our approach to subdivided populations which follow the finite island model, obtaining the Shannon entropy of the equilibrium allele distributions of the subpopulations and of the total population. We also derive the expected mutual information and normalized mutual information (“Shannon differentiation”) between subpopulations at equilibrium, and identify the model parameters that determine them. We apply our measures to data from the common starling (Sturnus vulgaris) in Australia. Our measures provide a test for neutrality that is robust to violations of equilibrium assumptions, as verified on real world data from starlings.     

Exact moment calculations for genetic models with migration,mutation, and drift

Using properties of moment stationarity we develop exact expressions for the mean and covariance of allele frequencies at a single locus for a set of populations subject to drift, mutation, and migration. Some general results can be obtained even for arbitrary mutation and migration matrices, for example: (1) Under quite general conditions, the mean vector depends only on mutation rates, not on migration rates or the number of populations. (2) Allele frequencies covary among all pairs of populations connected by migration. As a result, the drift, mutation, migration process is not ergodic when any finite number of populations is exchanging genes. In addition, we provide closed-form expressions for the mean and covariance of allele frequencies in Wright's finite-island model of migration under several simple models of mutation, and we show that the correlation in allele frequencies among populations can be very large for realistic rates of mutation unless an enormous number of populations are exchanging genes. As a result, the traditional diffusion approximation provides a poor approximation of the stationary distribution of allele frequencies among populations. Finally, we discuss some implications of our results for measures of population structure based on Wright's F-statistics.     

Joint effects of self-fertilization and population structure on mutation load, inbreeding depression and heterosis

Both the spatial distribution of organisms and their mode of reproduction have important effects on the change in allele frequencies within populations. In this article, we study the combined effect of population structure and the rate of partial selfing of organisms on the efficiency of selection against recurrent deleterious mutations. Assuming an island model of population structure and weak selection, we express the mutation load, the within- and between-deme inbreeding depression, and heterosis as functions of the frequency of deleterious mutants in the metapopulation; we then use a diffusion model to calculate an expression for the equilibrium probability distribution of this frequency of deleterious mutants. This allows us to derive approximations for the average mutant frequency, mutation load, inbreeding depression, and heterosis, the simplest ones being Equations 35-39 in the text. We find that population structure can help to purge recessive deleterious mutations and reduce the load for some parameter values (in particular when the dominance coefficient of these mutations is <0.2-0.3), but that this effect is reversed when the selfing rate is above a given value. Conversely, within-deme inbreeding depression always decreases, while heterosis always increases, with the degree of population subdivision, for all selfing rates.     

Case-control studies of genetic markers: power and sample size approximations for Armitage's test for trend

The association of a candidate gene with disease can be efficiently evaluated by a case-control study in which allele frequencies are compared for diseased cases and unaffected controls. However, when the distribution of genotypes in the population deviates from Hardy-Weinberg proportions, the frequency of genotypes--rather than alleles--should be compared by the Armitage test for trend. We present formulas for power and sample size for studies that use Armitage's trend test. The formulas make no assumptions about Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, but do assume random ascertainment of cases and controls, all of whom are independent of one another. We demonstrate the accuracy of the formulas by simulations.     

Isoallele Frequencies in Very Large Populations

The frequencies of electrophoretically distinguishable allelic forms of enzymes may be very different from the corresponding frequencies of structurally distinct forms, because many sequence variants may have identical electrophoretic charge. In large populations such frequencies will be determined largely by the number of amino acid sites that are free to vary. The number of distinguishable electrophoretic variants will remain fairly small. Beyond some limiting size, no further effect of population size on allele frequencies is expected, so isolated large populations will have closely similar allele frequencies if polymorphism is due largely to mutation and drift. The most common electrophoretic alleles are expected to be flanked by the next most common, with the rarer alleles increasingly distal. Neither strong selection nor mutation/drift interpretations of enzyme polymorphism are yet disproven, nor is any point between these extremes.