Keeping pace with climate change: what can we learn from the spread of Lessepsian migrants?

Species need to move to keep pace with changing climates, but we do not know if species can move at the required speed. Spread rates of native species may underestimate how fast species can move, we therefore assessed how fast Lessepsian species (marine non‐native species that invaded the Mediterranean from the Red Sea through the Suez Canal) can spread to give a ‘best‐case’ assessment of the effects of climate change on marine biodiversity. We show that about 20% of Lessepsian species could not spread fast enough to keep pace with climate change in about 20% of the global seas and this suggests that climate change may lead to biodiversity loss. The velocity of climate change on the seabed is much lower than at the sea surface, and as a result of this the proportion of species that keep pace with climate change at the seabed was much larger than at the sea surface. This suggests that locations at depth could act as refuges for slow dispersing species. Our analysis compared different estimates of the spreading abilities of marine species and showed that the estimate of spread rates strongly affects the predicted effect of climate change on biodiversity. Providing more accurate estimates of the spreading ability of marine species should therefore have priority if we want to predict the effect of climate change on marine biodiversity. This study is a first approximation of the potential scale and distribution of global marine biodiversity loss and can provide benchmark estimates of the spread rates that species could achieve in colonizing suitable habitat. Assisted colonization may be required to maintain biodiversity in the most strongly affected areas.     

Human taxonomic diversity in the pleistocene: Does Homo erectus represent multiple hominid species?

Recently, nomina such as “Homo heidelbergensis” and “H. ergaster” have been resurrected to refer to fossil hominids that are perceived to be specifically distinct from Homo sapiens and Homo erectus. This results in a later human fossil record that is nearly as speciose as that documenting the earlier history of the family Hominidae. However, it is agreed that there remains only one extant hominid species: H. sapiens. Has human taxonomic diversity been significantly pruned over the last few hundred millennia, or have the number of taxa been seriously overestimated? To answer this question, the following null hypothesis is tested: polytypism was established relatively early and the species H. erectus can accommodate all spatio-temporal variation from ca. 1.7 to 0.5 Ma. A disproof of this hypothesis would suggest that modern human polytypism is a very recent phenomenon and that speciation throughout the course of human evolution was the norm and not the exception. Cranial variation in a taxonomically mixed sample of fossil hominids, and in a modern human sample, is analyzed with regard to the variation present in the fossils attributed to H. erectus. The data are examined using both univariate (coefficient of variation) and multivariate (determinant) analyses. Employing randomization methodology to offset the small size and non-normal distribution of the fossil samples, the CV and determinant results reveal a pattern and degree of variation in H. erectus that most closely approximates that of the single species H. sapiens. It is therefore concluded that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. © 1993 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Global Warming： Can Existing Reserves Really Preserve Current Levels of Biological Diversity？

Peleoecologlcel evidence end peleoclimatlc records indicate that there wee e plant polewerd migration in latitude and an upward shift In elevation with increased temperatures after the last glaciation. Recent studies have shown that global warming over the past 100 years has been having a noticeable effect on living systems. Current global warming Is causing a poleward and upward shift In the range of many plants and animals. Climate change, In connection with other global changes, is threatening the survival of a wide range of plant and animal species. This raises the question： can existing reserves really preserve current levels of biological diversity In the long term given the present rapid pace of climate change？ The present paper deals with this question In the context of the responses of plants and animals to global climate change, based on a literature review. Consequently, we recommend expanding reserves towards the poles and/or towards higher altitudes, to permit species to shift their ranges to keep pace with global warming.     

The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes,species dispersal and movement barriers

The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use‐driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species‐specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up‐ vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled “moderate” and “severe” climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller‐bodied fishes and to contract for larger‐bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller‐bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger‐bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller‐bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability.     

Climate change threatens protected areas of the Atlantic Forest

Only 7 % of the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot is currently protected, though it holds 18 % of all amphibian species in South America. How effective would the Atlantic Forest network of protected areas (PAs) be in a changing climate? Are there some intrinsic features of PAs that drive species loss or gain inside them? We addressed these questions by modeling the ecological niches of 430 amphibian species in the Atlantic Forest and projecting their distributions into three future climate change simulations. We then assessed changes in species richness inside PAs for different time frames and tested their significance via null model. The number of species should decline within Atlantic Forest network of PAs under changing climate conditions. Only altitude was a good predictor of species gains or lost inside PAs. Therefore, we suggest that new PAs established in highlands would be more effective to alleviate the effects of climate change on this imperiled fauna.     

Global warming may freeze the invasion of big-headed ants

Climate change and invasive species are two of the most serious threats of biodiversity. A general concern is that these threats interact, and that a globally warming climate could favour invasive species. In this study we investigate the invasive potential of one of the “100 of the world’s worst invasive species”, the big-headed ant Pheidole megacephala. Using ecological niche models, we estimated the species’ potential suitable habitat in 2020, 2050 and 2080. With an ensemble forecast obtained from five different modelling techniques, 3 Global Circulation Models and 2 CO₂ emission scenarios, we generated world maps with suitable climatic conditions and assessed changes, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Almost one-fifth (18.5 %) of the landmass currently presents suitable climatic conditions for P. megacephala. Surprisingly, our results also indicate that the invasion of big-headed ants is not only unlikely to benefit from climate change, but may even suffer from it. Our projections show a global decrease in the invasive potential of big-headed ants as early as 2020 and becoming even stronger by 2080 reaching a global loss of 19.4 % of area with favourable climate. The decrease is observable in all 6 broad regions, being greatest in the Oceania and lowest in Europe.     

Phenological advancement in arctic bird species: relative importance of snow melt and ecological factors

Previous studies have documented advancement in clutch initiation dates (CIDs) in response to climate change, most notably for temperate-breeding passerines. Despite accelerated climate change in the Arctic, few studies have examined nest phenology shifts in arctic breeding species. We investigated whether CIDs have advanced for the most abundant breeding shorebird and passerine species at a long-term monitoring site in arctic Alaska. We pooled data from three additional nearby sites to determine the explanatory power of snow melt and ecological variables (predator abundance, green-up) on changes in breeding phenology. As predicted, all species (semipalmated sandpiper, Calidris pusilla, pectoral sandpiper, Calidris melanotos, red-necked phalarope, Phalaropus lobatus, red phalarope, Phalaropus fulicarius, Lapland longspur, Calcarius lapponicus) exhibited advanced CIDs ranging from 0.40 to 0.80 days/year over 9 years. Timing of snow melt was the most important variable in explaining clutch initiation advancement (“climate/snow hypothesis”) for four of the five species, while green-up was a much less important explanatory factor. We found no evidence that high predator abundances led to earlier laying dates (“predator/re-nest hypothesis”). Our results support previous arctic studies in that climate change in the cryosphere will have a strong impact on nesting phenology although factors explaining changes in nest phenology are not necessarily uniform across the entire Arctic. Our results suggest some arctic-breeding shorebird and passerine species are altering their breeding phenology to initiate nesting earlier enabling them to, at least temporarily, avoid the negative consequences of a trophic mismatch.     

Clearing of invasive alien plants under different budget scenarios: using a simulation model to test efficiency

Clearing of invasive alien plants (IAPs) is a necessary but expensive exercise. Typically, insufficient resources are available to clear all areas simultaneously. Consequently areas need to be prioritized for clearing. The financial resources available determine the extent of the area which can be cleared, while the prioritization identifies the location of the areas to be cleared. We investigate the following questions: (1) How does a change in the budget impact on the efficiency of the clearing operations over time? (2) How does this differ for different sites? (3) Can we identify pattern which make it possible for managers to determine if their budget is sufficient to achieve a management goal (e.g. clearing 95% of the area of IAPs) in a given time? (4) Can we draw general rules about how the time needed of achieving a management goal is changing when increasing the budget? We use a spatio-temporal explicit simulation model (SpreadSim) to simulate the spread of major woody IAPs over time, using a random prioritization strategy as a null model. This strategy requires no understanding or assumptions about the factors influencing spread; it is thus a reasonable baseline prioritization strategy. Our results confirm that a reduction of the budget increases the time needed to reach a management goal of 95% non-invaded areas and simultaneously increases the overall budget needed to achieve this goal. In addition, for each site, we can identify three values. Firstly, a “lower critical limit” of the budget, below which the IAP spread is only slowed down and management does not result in a reduction of the area invaded by IAPs, which is independent of the management goal. Secondly, the “critical budget”, at which we have a chance of more than 50% of achieving our management goal in a given time. Thirdly, an “upper critical limit” for the budget, above which no substantial change in the time needed to reach the management goal can be observed. For all our three sites, the “upper critical limit” is located at approximately 1.7 times the “critical budget”. The variability of the temporal trajectories of the area covered by IAPs for different simulations for the same input parameter and highly non-linear change in IAP cover over time indicate that an identification of the “critical budget” based on few years of IAP management is nearly impossible and that the use of simulation models is imperative. Nevertheless, the general pattern observed can be generalized to other prioritization strategies and provide important guidance for budget allocations.     

Infinite Graphs in Systematic Biology, with an Application to the Species Problem

We argue that C. Darwin and more recently W. Hennig worked at times under the simplifying assumption of an eternal biosphere. So motivated, we explicitly consider the consequences which follow mathematically from this assumption, and the infinite graphs it leads to. This assumption admits certain clusters of organisms which have some ideal theoretical properties of species, shining some light onto the species problem. We prove a dualization of a law of T. A. Knight and C. Darwin, and sketch a decomposition result involving the internodons of D. Kornet, J. Metz and H. Schellinx. A further goal of this paper is to respond to B. Sturmfels’ question, “Can biology lead to new theorems?”     

Potential impact of climate change on fungal distributions: analysis of 2 years of contrasting weather in the UK

The impact of climate change on fungal growth and spore production is less well documented than for allergenic pollen grains, although similar implications for respiratory tract diseases in humans occur. Fungal spores are commonly described as either “dry” or “wet” according to the type of weather associated with their occurrence in the air. This study examined the distribution of selected fungal spores (Alternaria spp., Cladosporium spp., Didymella spp., Epicoccum spp., Leptosphaeria spp. and rusts) occurring in the West Midlands of UK during 2 years of contrasting weather. Spore specimens were collected using a 7-day volumetric air sampler and then analysed with the aid of light microscopy. Distributions of spores were then studied using normality tests and Mann–Whitney U test, while relationships with meteorological parameters were investigated using Spearman’s rank test and angular-linear correlation for wind direction analysis. Our results showed that so-called wet spores were more sensitive to the weather changes showing statistically significant differences between the 2 years of study, in contrast to “dry” spores. We predict that in following years we will observe accelerated levels in allergenic fungal spore production as well as changes in species diversity. This study could be a starting point to revise the grouping system of fungal spores as either “dry” or “wet” types and their response to climate change.     

So what is a species anyway? A primatological perspective

Since Darwin's time, the question “what a species” has provoked fierce disputes and a tremendous number of publications, from short opinion papers to thick volumes. 1 The debates covered fundamental philosophical questions, such as: Do species exist at all independently of a human observer or are they just a construct of the human mind to categorize nature's organismic diversity and serve as a semantic tool in human communication about biodiversity? 2 - 4 or: Are species natural kinds (classes) or individuals that are “born” by speciation, change in course of time, and finally “die” when they go extinct or diverge into new species? 5 - 8 Also included was the problem of species as taxa (taxonomic) versus species as products of the speciation process (evolutionary). 9 More pragmatic issues arose, such as: How can we reliably delineate and delimitate species? 10 , 11 The great interest in what a species is reflects the importance of “species” as fundamental units in most fields of biology, especially evolutionary biology, ecology, and conservation. 2 , 12 - 14     

The absolute dating of Upper Pleistocene subSaharan fossil hominids and their place in human evolution

In the evolution of anatomically modern man and his subspecies most specialists have concentrated on investigating geographical areas other than Africa as the possible area of origin.In this study 20 fossil hominids and associated faunal remains from South and East Africa were dated by microanalysis, radiocarbon, and amino-acid dating in order to see whether modern man appears later, was sympatric, or even predated Neandertal man.These dates indicate that anatomically modern man occurs sympatrically and possibly even predates the Rhodesian group of Neandertals in Africa. Modern man might also be contemporary to and possibly even predate the occurrence of Neandertal in Europe.This would indicate that modern man did not evolve from but possibly gave rise to the Neandertals as off-shoots.Two possibilities for the evolution of modern man are suggested. First, that Homo sapiens capensis evolved about 90,000 to 100,000 years ago from possibly Homo erectus by way of a “basic” Homo sapiens and later gave rise to Homo sapiens rhodesiensis, Homo sapiens afer, and possibly Homo sapiens palestinus around 50,000 years ago with Homo neanderthalensis and Homo sapiens capensis evolving separately from Homo erectus. In this case Homo neanderthalensis would be a different species from Homo sapiens which includes Homo sapiens capensis, Homo sapiens rhodesiensis, Homo sapiens afer, and possibly Homo sapiens palestinus.Secondly, Homo sapiens capensis evolved by way of a “basic” Homo sapiens with Homo sapiens rhodesiensis and Homo sapiens palestinus branching off from Homo sapiens capensis around 50,000 years ago. Before that, around 90,000 to 100,000 years ago Homo sapiens capensis evolved first and was then followed by Homo sapiens neanderthalensis from a “basic” Homo sapiens stock, but diverged. This means, all Neandertals, Homo sapiens capensis, Homo sapiens sapiens and Homo sapiens afer can be considered as subspecies of Homo sapiens.The author favors the first scheme since on relative dating grounds the existence of Neandertal man in Europe before the earliest date of Homo sapiens capensis and a “basic” Homo sapiens seems to be fairly well documented. Irrespective of either one of these possibilities, modern man evolved in Africa and seems to have migrated into Europe and other parts of the world.New absolute dating techniques are mentioned in detail like the new radiocarbon-collagen method and amino acid dating.     

Kinetochore fiber formation in animal somatic cells: dueling mechanisms come to a draw

The attachment to and movement of a chromosome on the mitotic spindle are mediated by the formation of a bundle of microtubules (MTs) that tethers the kinetochore on the chromosome to a spindle pole. The origin of these “kinetochore fibers” (K fibers) has been investigated for over 125 years. As noted in 1944 by Schrader [Mitosis, Columbia University Press, New York, 110 pp.], there are three possible ways to form a K fiber: (a) it grows from the pole until it contacts the kinetochore, (b) it grows directly from the kinetochore, or (c) it forms as a result of an interaction between the pole and the chromosome. Since Schrader's time, it has been firmly established that K fibers in centrosome-containing animal somatic cells form as kinetochores capture MTs growing from the spindle pole (route a). It is now similarly clear that in cells lacking centrosomes, including higher plants and many animal oocytes, K fibers “self-assemble” from MTs generated by the chromosomes (route b). Can animal somatic cells form K fibers in the absence of centrosomes by the “self-assembly” pathway? In 2000, the answer to this question was shown to be a resounding “yes.” With this result, the next question became whether the presence of a centrosome normally suppresses K fiber self-assembly or if this route works concurrently with centrosome-mediated K-fiber formation. This question, too, has recently been answered: observations on untreated live animal cells expressing green fluorescent protein-tagged tubulin clearly show that kinetochores can nucleate the formation of their associated MTs in a unique manner in the presence of functional centrosomes. The concurrent operation of these two “dueling” routes for forming K fibers in animal cells helps explain why the attachment of kinetochores and the maturation of K fibers occur as quickly as they do on all chromosomes within a cell.     

A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of thermal performance in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower

Evolutionary rescue can prevent populations from declining under climate change, and should be more likely at high-latitude, “leading” edges of species’ ranges due to greater temperature anomalies and gene flow from warm-adapted populations. Using a resurrection study with seeds collected before and after a 7-year period of record warming, we tested for thermal adaptation in the scarlet monkeyflower Mimulus cardinalis. We grew ancestors and descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge populations across eight temperatures. Despite recent climate anomalies, populations showed limited evolution of thermal performance curves. However, one southern population evolved a narrower thermal performance breadth by 1.31°C, which matches the direction and magnitude of the average decrease in seasonality experienced. Consistent with the climate variability hypothesis, thermal performance breadth increased with temperature seasonality across the species’ geographic range. Inconsistent with performance trade-offs between low and high temperatures across populations, we did not detect a positive relationship between thermal optimum and mean temperature. These findings fail to support the hypothesis that evolutionary response to climate change is greatest at the leading edge, and suggest that the evolution of thermal performance is unlikely to rescue most populations from the detrimental effects of rapidly changing climate.     

Modeling warming predicts a physiological threshold for the extinction of the living fossil frog Calyptocephalella gayi

Global climate change will have a greater impact on ectotherms in tropical and subtropical communities than at higher latitudes, because ambient temperatures are closer to the upper thermal limits of species. Amphibian species are highly dependent on external weather conditions, and the effect of global warming on these has been evaluated recently. The Great Chilean frog (Calyptocephalella gayi) is an endemic, monotypic species and genus whose conservation status is considered Vulnerable because of high extraction pressure for human consumption, lack of regulatory measures and comprehension by its consumers. Their populations have also declined due to the loss and destruction of their habitats. C. gayi has not been considered as an object of physiological study, so this large species is not known as one that can adapt to current environmental changes. In this study we analyze the thermoregulatory capacity and thermal efficiency of C. gayi to determine its potential for climatic adaptation. The results indicate that this species is strictly a thermal-conformer; its thermal efficiency and its ability to withstand high temperatures allow it to sustain itself under a climate change scenario, however, it has thermal constraints that do not allow it to withstand temperatures greater than 30 °C. By modeling its ontogenetic conditions mathematically, we project that the larvae are not in danger, although there is a group of around 4% which is very close to 30 °C, which is the highest temperature recorded for the species. However, about 40% of subadults and approximately 47% of adult frogs will not survive the change of ~7 °C projected for the following 85 years, which will affect future generations.     

Weather whiplash in agricultural regions drives deterioration of water quality

Excess nitrogen (N) impairs inland water quality and creates hypoxia in coastal ecosystems. Agriculture is the primary source of N; agricultural management and hydrology together control aquatic ecosystem N loading. Future N loading will be determined by how agriculture and hydrology intersect with climate change, yet the interactions between changing climate and water quality remain poorly understood. Here, we show that changing precipitation patterns, resulting from climate change, interact with agricultural land use to deteriorate water quality. We focus on the 2012–2013 Midwestern U.S. drought as a “natural experiment”. The transition from drought conditions in 2012 to a wet spring in 2013 was abrupt; the media dubbed this “weather whiplash”. We use recent (2010–2015) and historical data (1950–2015) to connect weather whiplash (drought-to-flood transitions) to increases in riverine N loads and concentrations. The drought likely created highly N-enriched soils; this excess N mobilized during heavy spring rains (2013), resulting in a 34% increase (10.5 vs. 7.8 mg N L^?1) in the flow-weighted mean annual nitrate concentration compared to recent years. Furthermore, we show that climate change will likely intensify weather whiplash. Increased weather whiplash will, in part, increase the frequency of riverine N exceeding E.P.A. drinking water standards. Thus, our observations suggest increased climatic variation will amplify negative trends in water quality in a region already grappling with severe impairments.     

Newly arrived or previously overlooked: is there evidence for climate-driven changes in the distribution of molluscs in the Barents Sea?

In recent years, there have been frequent reports of invertebrate species newly recorded from particular areas of the Northeastern Atlantic, and it has often been suggested that these are the result of changes in species ranges due to recent warming. These suggestions make three assumptions: (1) that we have a good knowledge of the fauna of these areas; (2) that new records of “southern” species are more frequent than new records of “northern” species; (3) that climate change is the only factor affecting species range. I tested these assumptions on published records of 30 benthic molluscan species which have been found alive for the first time in the Russian part of the Barents Sea since 2006. Some of the discussed species are warm-water species and may have extended their ranges northward in response to climate change. However, our baseline knowledge of the molluscan fauna of this area before 2006 is limited by the frequent lack of molluscan specialists to study the available material, by the frequent lack of detailed publication and by changes in sampling and processing methods. New records of “southern” species are in fact not significantly commoner than new records of “northern” species. Also reasons other than climate change for observed changes in species distribution should be considered.     

HSP70 heat shock proteins and environmental stress in Antarctic marine organisms: A mini-review

The ability to understand and predict the effects of environmental stress on biodiversity is becoming increasingly important in our changing environment. Antarctic marine species are some of the most stenothermal on the planet and many inhabit the waters off the Antarctic Peninsula which is one of the areas where there is rapid regional climate change. Therefore these animals are highly vulnerable to changing environmental temperatures and clearly we need to understand the complexities of their response, not just at the individual species level, but also the implications for the ecosystem as a whole. Heat shock proteins have a long history of use in studies of organism stress responses and have frequently been proposed as potential universal molecular biomarkers, especially for non-model species. In this mini-review, the heat shock response and heat shock proteins (specifically the HSP70 family) are examined in Antarctic marine species alongside their physiological capabilities and limits to answer a series of questions: do these animals have a heat shock response which includes the expression of HSP70 genes? What is the relationship between their heat shock response and physiological capabilities? Can HSP70 genes be used as molecular biomarkers for these species?     

Climate-driven,but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species’ distributions

Estimates of the percentage of species “committed to extinction” by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species’ range change. We created demographic range models that include climate vs. climate-plus-competition, evaluating their influence on the geographic distribution of Pinus edulis, a pine endemic to the semiarid southwestern U.S. Analyses of data on 23,426 trees in 1941 forest inventory plots support the inclusion of competition in range models. However, climate and competition together only partially explain this species’ distribution. Instead, the evidence suggests that climate affects other range-limiting processes, including landscape-scale, spatial processes such as disturbances and antagonistic biotic interactions. Complex effects of climate on species distributions—through indirect effects, interactions, and feedbacks—are likely to cause sudden changes in abundance and distribution that are not predictable from a climate-only perspective.     

Adaptation of a widespread epiphytic fern to simulated climate change conditions

The response of species to climate change is generally studied using ex situ manipulation of microclimate or by modeling species range shifts under simulated climate scenarios. In contrast, a reciprocal transplant experiment was used to investigate the in situ adaptive response of the elevationally widespread epiphytic fern Asplenium antiquum to simulated climate change conditions. Fern spores were collected at three elevations and germinated in a greenhouse. The sporelings (juvenile ferns) were reciprocally transplanted to each collection site. Growth and mortality rates were monitored for 2 years. Wild sporelings were monitored at two sites to assess possible transplant effects. Habitat suitability, indicated by overall growth and survival patterns, declined as elevation increased. Only the highland population showed significant adaptation to the “home” habitat, achieving the highest survival rates. Microclimate data suggest that the presumed genetic adaptation at the highland site occurred mainly in response to drought stress in winter. Based on our previous study on species distribution models, which projected an expansion in the range of A. antiquum under future climate change scenarios, the populations at the upper margins of the species’ elevational range may play an important role during this expansion, given their better adaptation to the shifting marginal conditions. Our study suggests that intraspecific variation should be considered when determining the potential impact of climate change on biodiversity.