Observed and projected impacts of climate on radial growth of three endangered conifers in northern Mexico indicate high vulnerability of drought-sensitive species from mesic habitats

A decline in productivity and radial growth in conifer forests from mesic areas has been associated with increased drought stress induced by climate warming. Nevertheless, studies showing how vulnerable tree species will be in response to forecasted warming conditions are scarce in such mesic habitats. Here we address this issue by analyzing how growth responds to drought and to observed and projected climate conditions in a conifer forest from northern Mexico, which is a hotspot of conifer diversity. We quantify the trends in radial growth (quantified as basal area increment, BAI) of three species (Abies durangensis, Picea chihuahuana, Cupressus lusitanica) using dendrochronology and a process-based model of tree growth. Growth decreased in A. durangensis and P. chihuahuana from the late 1980s onwards in response to warmer and drier conditions, whereas C. lusitanica growth showed very low sensitivity to precipitation and increased as temperature did. Winter-spring dry conditions adversely affected the growth of A. durangensis and P. chihuahuana. Our modeling approach anticipates growth reductions and an increase in the vulnerability of A. durangensis and the endangered P. chihuahuana against the warmer and more arid conditions predicted after the 2050s. Future warmer and drier climatic conditions could reduce the productivity and lead to growth decline of these mesic conifer forests triggering dieback episodes in highly drought-sensitive species as A. durangensis and P. chihuahuana.     

Biodiversity assessment: a case study in predicting richness from the potential distributions of plant species in the forests of south-western Australia

Distributions were predicted for 1430 native plant species as part of a biodiversity assessment in the forests of south‐west Western Australia. From these predicted distributions, an index of plant species richness was generated for the forest area. The most common predictors for distribution were found to be climatic surfaces incorporating some aspect of seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Although coarse, the index confirmed existing knowledge of areas of high biodiversity within the study area and introduced a new area, the Blackwood Plateau, for consideration as a conservation reserve with high species richness. An additional survey was conducted to sample actual species richness in 11 test sites. When actual richness was regressed against predicted richness, a significant correlation was obtained if both annuals and geophytes were excluded from the analysis. With refinement of the model and further data collection targeted at areas of low effort, the species richness index is proposed as a useful tool for conservation planning.     

气候变化对黄土高原及邻近地区稀有种枯蝉分布的潜在影响(英文)

【目的】未来数十年的气候变化预计会是造成很多物种生境丧失的一个重要因素。对适应能力相对脆弱的地方性物种,预测气候变化对其生境的影响将对生物多样性保护具有重要意义。【方法】本文基于最大熵模型,对珍稀蝉科中国特有种枯蝉Subpsaltria yangi在当前和未来气候条件下的生境适宜度进行了评估。【结果】结果表明,枯蝉主要局限分布于黄土高原及邻近地区。预计至2050年,即使在温和的气候变化情景下,枯蝉的生境面积也会明显减少。影响枯蝉栖息地分布的关键因素为年平均气温、最冷月的最低气温、最冷季的平均气温和最潮湿月份的降水量。枯蝉现存种群栖息地应当受到保护,甘肃天水和陕西延安地区应作为枯蝉分布的核心区予以保护,以应对气候变化对其生境带来的影响。【结论】本研究获得的枯蝉适宜生境分布图可以为该稀有物种的新种群发现、现生种群分布地土地规划管理以及有效的自然保护区设立提供重要信息。     

Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland

Aim Climate change has the potential to have significant impacts on the distribution of species and on the composition of habitats. This paper identifies the potential changes in the future distribution of species under the UKCIP98 climate change scenarios, in order that such changes can be taken into account in conservation management. Location The model was applied to Britain and Ireland. Methods A model based on an artificial neural network was used to predict the changing bioclimate envelopes of species in Britain and Ireland. Fifty‐four species representing 15 habitats were modelled. Results The modelled species could be placed into three categories: those losing suitable climate space, those gaining it, and those showing little or no change. When the species were associated with habitats it was found that Arctic–Alpine/montane heath communities were the most sensitive to climate change, followed by pine woodland and beech woodland in southern England. In lowland heath, wet heath, cereal field margins, coastal grazing marsh, drought‐prone acid grassland and calcareous grassland, the species either showed little change or an increase in suitable climate space. The other eight habitats showed a mixed response. Conclusions The species show a variety of responses to climate change and thus their current habitat associations may alter. The uncertain future of some species and habitats is highlighted. Conservation policy and practice will need to be revised in the face of climate change.     

Parapatric species and the implications for climate change studies: a case study on hares in Europe

Parapatry is a biogeographical term used to refer to organisms whose ranges do not overlap, but are immediately adjacent to each other; they only co‐occur – if at all – in a narrow contact zone. Often there are no environmental barriers in the contact zones, hence competitive interaction is usually advocated as the factor that modulates species distribution ranges. Even though the effects of climate change on species distribution have been widely studied, few studies have explored these effects on the biogeographical relationships between closely related, parapatric, species. We modelled environmental favourability for three parapatric hare species in Europe – Lepus granatensis, L. europaeus and L. timidus – using ecogeographical variables and projected the models into the future according to the IPCC A2 emissions scenario. Favourabilities for present and future scenarios were combined using fuzzy logic with the following aims: (i) to determine the biogeographical relationships between hare species in parapatry, that is L. granatensis/L. europaeus and L. europaeus/L. timidus and (ii) to assess the effects of climate change on each species as well as on their interspecific interactions. In their contact area L. granatensis achieved higher favourability values than L. europaeus, suggesting that if both species have a similar population status, the former species may have some advantages over the latter if competitive relationships are established. Climate change had the most striking effect on the distribution of L. timidus, especially when interspecific interactions with L. europaeus were taken into account, which may compromise the co‐existence of L. timidus. The results of this study are relevant not only for understanding the distribution patterns of the hares studied and the effects of climate change on these patterns, but also for improving the general application of species distribution models to the prediction of the effects of climate change on biodiversity.     

A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps

Climate and land‐use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent‐based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine‐grained land‐use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land‐use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio‐economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land‐use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land‐use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land‐use changes because alternative future socio‐economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land‐use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land‐use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi‐natural habitat. We conclude that agent‐based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.     

气候变化背景下入侵植物曼陀罗在西藏的潜在风险区预测

生物安全与外来物种入侵是国门生物安全的重大生态学问题,生物入侵造成了巨大的经济损失与生物多样性快速丧失,还影响着人类的身体健康。西藏是我国重要的生态安全屏障,生态类型复杂且丰富多样,明确西藏区域尺度上外来入侵植物的潜在分布格局及其对气候变化的响应对入侵植物的预防和控制具有重要意义。为了探究入侵植物曼陀罗(Datura stramonium L.)对西藏生态安全的影响风险,基于野外实地调查数据,采用最大熵(Maxent) 模型,应用R语言和SPSS软件对模型参数和数据进行优化筛选,探讨影响其地理分布的主要环境因子,并模拟预测了当代及2种气候变化情景(RCP 45、RCP 85)下2050年和2070年, 其在西藏的潜在入侵风险区分布情况。结果表明:下层土壤酸碱度、年平均气温、最暖月最高温度与土壤有效含水量是影响曼陀罗分布的主导环境因子,海拔和人类活动影响强度也有重要作用;朗县、加查县、乃东区、城关区、八宿县、贡嘎县、巴宜区、波密县、察隅县、芒康县等地为入侵高风险地区;两种气候背景下曼陀罗的各级风险区面积和总风险区面积均呈持续增加的变化趋势,且在最高碳排放情景(RCP 85情景)下响应更为敏感;主要沿着低海拔河谷区域东南向西北方向入侵扩散的趋势,分布中心由当前的墨脱县域向工布江达县域转移。综合来说,曼陀罗在西藏分布受土壤环境、温度和降水影响较大,气候变化和人类活动影响强度将使其向西藏西部、北部扩散。研究结果可为西藏地区综合防控曼陀罗的入侵危害与动态监测提供生态学基础理论依据。     

Modeling density dependence and climatic disturbances in caribou: a case study from the Bathurst Island complex, Canadian High Arctic

Peary caribou Rangifer tarandus pearyi is the northernmost subspecies of Rangifer in North America and endemic to the Canadian High Arctic. Because of severe population declines following years of unfavorable winter weather with ice coating on the ground or thicker snow cover, it is believed that density-independent disturbance events are the primary driver for Peary caribou population dynamics. However, it is unclear to what extent density dependence may affect population dynamics of this species. Here, we test for different levels of density dependence in a stochastic, single-stage population model, based on available empirical information for the Bathurst Island complex (BIC) population in the Canadian High Arctic. We compare predicted densities with observed densities during 1961–2001 under various assumptions of the strength of density dependence. On the basis of our model, we found that scenarios with no or very low density dependence led to population densities far above observed densities. For average observed disturbance regimes, a carrying capacity of 0.1 caribou km⁻² generated an average caribou density similar to that estimated for the BIC population over the past four decades. With our model we also tested the potential effects of climate change-related increases in the probability and severity of disturbance years, that is unusually poor winter conditions. On the basis of our simulation results, we found that, in particular, potential increases in disturbance severity (as opposed to disturbance frequency) may pose a considerable threat to the persistence of this species.     

A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling

Background and Aims A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia.Methods Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM).Key Results A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction.Conclusions Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had contracted at the LGM. This signature of contraction from lower rainfall areas is consistent with current observations of decline on the semi-arid margin of the range, and indicates low capacity to tolerate forecast climatic change. Identification of a paleo-historical context for current tree decline enables conservation interventions to focus on maintaining genetic diversity, which provides the evolutionary potential for adaptation to climate change.     

气候变化对物种分布影响模拟中的不确定性组分分割与制图——以油松为例

物种分布模型是预测评估气候变化对物种分布影响的主要工具。为了降低物种分布模型在预测过程中的不确定性,近期有学者提出了采用组合预测的新方法,即采用多套建模数据、模型技术,模型参数,以及环境情景数据对物种分布进行预测,构成物种分布预测集合。但是,组合预测中各组分对变异的贡献还知之甚少,因此有必要把变异组分来源进行分割,以更有效地利用组合预测方法来降低模型预测中的不确定性。以油松为例,采用8个生态位模型,9套模型训练数据,3个GCM模型和一个SRES(A2)排放情景,模型分析了油松当前(1961-1990年)和未来气候条件下3个时间段(2010-2039年,2040-2069年,2070-2099年)的潜在分布。共计得到当前分布预测数据72套,未来每个时间段分布数据216套。采用开发的ClimateChina软件进行当前和未来气候数据的降尺度处理。采用Kappa、真实技巧统计方法(TSS)和接收机工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC)对模型预测能力进行评估。结果表明,随机森林(RF)、广义线性模型(GLM),广义加法模型(GAM)、多元自适应样条函数(MARS)以及助推法(GBM)预测效果较好,几乎不受建模数据之间差异的影响。混合判别分析模型(MDA)对建模数据之间的差异非常敏感,甚至出现建模失败现象。采用三因素方差分析方法对组合预测中的不确定性来源进行变异分割,结果表明,模型之间的差异对模拟预测结果不确定性的贡献最大且所占比例极高,而建模数据之间的差异贡献最小,GCM贡献居中。研究将有助于加深对物种分布模拟预测中不确定性的认识。     

Hierarchical models facilitate spatial analysis of large data sets: a case study on invasive plant species in the northeastern United States

Many critical ecological issues require the analysis of large spatial point data sets – for example, modelling species distributions, abundance and spread from survey data. But modelling spatial relationships, especially in large point data sets, presents major computational challenges. We use a novel Bayesian hierarchical statistical approach, 'spatial predictive process' modelling, to predict the distribution of a major invasive plant species, Celastrus orbiculatus , in the northeastern USA. The model runs orders of magnitude faster than traditional geostatistical models on a large data set of c . 4000 points, and performs better than generalized linear models, generalized additive models and geographically weighted regression in cross-validation. We also use this approach to model simultaneously the distributions of a set of four major invasive species in a spatially explicit multivariate model. This multispecies analysis demonstrates that some pairs of species exhibit negative residual spatial covariation, suggesting potential competitive interaction or divergent responses to unmeasured factors.     

Impact of landscape predictors on climate change modelling of species distributions: a case study with Eucalyptus fastigata in southern New South Wales,Australia

Aim We consider three questions. (1) How different are the predicted distribution maps when climate‐only and climate‐plus‐terrain models are developed from high‐resolution data? (2) What are the implications of differences between the models when predicting future distributions under climate change scenarios, particularly for climate‐only models at coarse resolution? (3) Does the use of high‐resolution data and climate‐plus‐terrain models predict an increase in the number of local refugia? Location South‐eastern New South Wales, Australia. Methods We developed two species distribution models for Eucalyptus fastigata under current climate conditions using generalized additive modelling. One used only climate variables as predictors (mean annual temperature, mean annual rainfall, mean summer rainfall); the other used both climate and landscape (June daily radiation, topographic position, lithology, nutrients) variables as predictors. Predictions of the distribution under current climate and climate change were then made for both models at a pixel resolution of 100 m. Results The model using climate and landscape variables as predictors explained a significantly greater proportion of the deviance than the climate‐only model. Inclusion of landscape variables resulted in the prediction of much larger areas of existing optimal habitat. An overlay of predicted future climate on the current climate space indicated that extrapolation of the statistical models was not occurring and models were therefore more robust. Under climate change, landscape‐defined refugia persisted in areas where the climate‐only model predicted major declines. In areas where expansion was predicted, the increase in optimal habitat was always greater with landscape predictors. Recognition of extensive optimal habitat conditions and potential refugia was dependent on the use of high‐resolution landscape data. Main conclusions Using only climate variables as predictors for assessing species responses to climate change ignores the accepted conceptual model of plant species distribution. Explicit statements justifying the selection of predictors based on ecological principles are needed. Models using only climate variables overestimate range reduction under climate change and fail to predict potential refugia. Fine‐scale‐resolution data are required to capture important climate/landscape interactions. Extrapolation of statistical models to regions in climate space outside the region where they were fitted is risky.     

Past and future demographic dynamics of alpine species: limited genetic consequences despite dramatic range contraction in a plant from the Spanish Sierra Nevada

Anthropogenic global climate change is expected to cause severe range contractions among alpine plants. Alpine areas in the Mediterranean region are of special concern because of the high abundance of endemic species with narrow ranges. This study combined species distribution models, population structure analyses and Bayesian skyline plots to trace the past and future distribution and diversity of Linaria glacialis, an endangered narrow endemic species that inhabits summits of Sierra Nevada (Spain). The results showed that: (i) the habitat of this alpine‐Mediterranean species in Sierra Nevada suffered little changes during glacial and interglacial stages of late Quaternary; (ii) climatic oscillations in the last millennium (Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age) moderately affected the demographic trends of L. glacialis; (iii) future warming conditions will cause severe range contractions; and (iv) genetic diversity will not diminish at the same pace as the distribution range. As a consequence of the low population structure of this species, genetic impoverishment in the alpine zones of Sierra Nevada should be limited during range contraction. We conclude that maintenance of large effective population sizes via high mutation rates and high levels of gene flow may promote the resilience of alpine plant species when confronted with global warming.     

基于Logistic回归模型的黄河三角洲淡水恢复湿地大型底栖生物种群分布模拟

掌握大型底栖生物种群分布的时空变化对正确把握湿地生态修复效率、揭示湿地生态演替过程具有重要理论与实践意义。选择黄河三角洲地区一千二自然保护区的淡水恢复湿地为研究区,在2014—2015年大型底栖生物野外采样和优势物种的基础上,选择了琥珀刺沙蚕、中华蜾蠃蜚、摇蚊幼虫作为典型优势物种,构建了基于Logistic回归的淡水恢复湿地大型底栖生物种群分布模拟模型。其中,琥珀刺沙蚕和摇蚊幼虫的模拟结果较好,模拟准确率分别为84.9%和77.9%,而中华蜾蠃蜚的模拟结果不甚理想。对比生态补水前后大型底栖生物的模拟分布结果发现,琥珀刺沙蚕主要集中在潮间带区域,且在春、秋两季的生存概率分布差异不显著;而淡水恢复湿地中摇蚊幼虫的分布概率显著提高,其中高于分割值0.5的栖息面积增长了9.9—10.8倍,表明退化湿地生境正处于向淡水湿地演替进程中。     

Vegetation mapping and multivariate approach to indicator species of a forest ecosystem: A case study from the Thandiani sub Forests Division (TsFD) in the Western Himalayas

QuestionsDoes the plant species composition of Thandiani sub Forests Division (TsFD) correlate with edaphic, topographic and climatic variables? Is it possible to identify different plant communities in relation to environmental gradients with special emphasis on indicator species? Can this approach to vegetation classification support conservation planning?LocationThandiani sub Forests Division, Western Himalayas.MethodsQuantitative and qualitative characteristics of species along with environmental variables were measured using a randomly stratified design to identify the major plant communities and indicator species of the Thandiani sub Forests Division. Species composition was recorded in 10 × 2.5 × 2 and 0.5 × 0.5 m square plots for trees, shrubs and herbs, respectively. GPS, edaphic and topographic data were also recorded for each sample plot. A total of 1500 quadrats were established in 50 sampling stations along eight altitudinal transects encompassing eastern, western, northern and southern aspects (slopes). The altitudinal range of the study area was 1290 m to 2626 m above sea level using. The relationships between species composition and environmental variables were analyzed using Two Way Cluster Analysis (TWCA) and Indicator Species Analysis (ISA) via PCORD version 5.ResultsA total of 252 plant species belonging to 97 families were identified. TWCA and ISA recognized five plant communities. ISA additionally revealed that mountain slope aspect, soil pH and soil electrical conductivity were the strongest environmental factors (p ≤ 0.05) determining plant community composition and indicator species in each habitat. The results also show the strength of the environment-species relationship using Monte Carlo procedures.ConclusionsAn analysis of vegetation along an environmental gradient in the Thandiani sub Forests Division using the Braun-Blanquet approach confirmed by robust tools of multivariate statistics identified indicators of each sort of microclimatic zones/vegetation communities which could further be used in conservation planning and management not only in the area studied but in the adjacent regions exhibit similar sort of environmental conditions.     

Contrasting responses to Pleistocene climate changes: a case study of two sister species Allium cyathophorum and A. spicata (Amaryllidaceae) distributed in the eastern and western Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

It has been hypothesized that species occurring in the eastern and the western Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) responded differently to climate changes during the Pleistocene. Here, we test this hypothesis by phylogeographic analysis of two sister species, Allium cyathophorum and A. spicata. We sequenced two chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) fragments (accD‐psaI and the rpl16 intron) of 150 individuals, and the nuclear (ITS) region of 114 individuals, from 19 populations throughout the distributional ranges of these species. The divergence between the two species was dated at 779 ‐ 714 thousand years before the present and was likely initiated by the most major glaciation in the QTP. Analysis of chlorotype diversity showed that A. spicata, the species occurring in the western QTP, contains much lower genetic diversity (0.25) than A. cyathophorum (0.93), which is distributed in the eastern QTP. Moreover, multiple independent tests suggested that the A. spicata population had expanded recently, while no such expansion was detected in A. cyathophorum, indicating a contrasting pattern of responses to Pleistocene climate changes. These findings highlight the importance of geographical topography in determining how species responded to the climate changes that took place in the QTP during the Pleistocene.