The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over Europe

We present an integrated modeling study designed to investigate changes in ecosystem level phenology over Europe associated with changes in climate pattern, by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We derived onset dates from processed NDVI data sets and used growing degree day (GDD) summations from the NCEP re‐analysis to calibrate and validate a phenology model to predict the onset of the growing season over Europe. In a cross‐validation hindcast, the model (PHENOM) is able to explain 63% of the variance in onset date for grid cells containing at least 50% mixed and boreal forest. Using a model developed from previous work we performed climate change scenarios, generating synthetic temperature and GDD distributions under a hypothetically increasing NAO. These new distributions were used to drive PHENOM and project changes in the timing of onset for forested cells over Europe. Results from the climate change scenarios indicate that, if the current trend in the NAO continues, there is the potential for a continued advance to the start of the growing season by as much as 13 days in some areas.     

'SSW to NNE'– North Atlantic Oscillation affects the progress of seasons across Europe

Three European plant phenological network datasets were analysed for latitudinal and longitudinal gradients of nine phenological ‘seasons’ spanning the entire year. The networks were: (1) the historical first European Phenological Network (1882–1941) by Hoffmann & Ihne, (2) the network of the International Phenological Gardens in Europe (1959–1998), founded by Schnelle & Volkert in 1957 and based on cloned plants, and (3) a dataset (1951–1998) that was recently collated during the EU Fifth Framework project POSITIVE, which included network data of seven Central and Eastern European countries. Our study is most likely the first, for over a century, to analyse average onset and year‐to‐year variability of the progress of seasons across a continent. For early, mid, and late spring seasons we found a marked progress of the seasonal onset from SW to NE throughout Europe, more precisely from WSW to ENE in early spring, then from SW to NE and finally from SSW to NNE in late spring, as exhibited by the relationship between latitudinal and longitudinal gradients. The movement of summer was more south to north directed, as the longitudinal gradient (west–east component) strongly declined or was even of opposite sign. Autumn, as shown by leaf colouring dates, arrived from NE to SW. Possible reasons for the differences among the three datasets are discussed. The annual variability of latitudinal and longitudinal gradients of the seasons across Europe was closely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index; in years with high NAO in both winter and spring, the west–east component of progress was more pronounced; in summer and autumn, the pattern of the seasons may be more uniform.     

The biogeographical division of the Arctic and North Atlantic by the mysid (Crustacea: Mysidacea) fauna

The biogeographical analysis of Arctic and North Atlantic waters north of 30°N is based upon the distribution of 150 Mysidacea (Crustacea) species. The reasons for biogeographical divisions conducted independently by faunae of pelagic and benthopelagic mysids are adduced. The original schemes of the Arctic and North Atlantic division are proposed. Using the fauna of pelagic mysids, one biogeographical realm, one province and one transitional zone are designated in cold and temperate waters. Using the fauna of benthopelagic mysids, one biogeographical realm and four provinces are designated in those waters.     

Reassessing the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the sub-Saharan vegetation productivity

The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been shown to have a significant impact on the terrestrial ecosystem in the Sahelian region of Africa during the 1980s, and it has been strongly suggested that NAO may be a reliable predictor for the response of the Sahelian ecosystem to global climate variability. Using data from an extended period, we provide a reassessment for the impact of NAO on the Sahelian climate and ecosystem, and show that there is no consistent relationship between NAO and the ecosystem over Sahel. Statistical analysis on the NAO, vegetation, and precipitation data indicates that NAO influences the Sahelian vegetation productivity exclusively through its impact on precipitation. However, the relationship between the NAO index and Sahelian precipitation varies substantially with time. The correlation coefficient fluctuates between positive and negative values, and does not pass the 5% significance test during most of the twentieth century. The NAO system, although documented to govern the ecosystem dynamics over many other regions, does not have a consistent impact on the ecosystem over the Sahel. Therefore, the NAO index cannot produce a useful prediction on the ecosystem variability and changes in this region. This study provides an example that correlations based on short climate and ecological records (less than 20 years in this case) can be spurious and potentially misleading.     

Lagged effects of North Atlantic Oscillation on spittlebug Philaenus spumarius (Homoptera) abundance and survival

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a large‐scale pattern of climate variability that has been shown to have important ecological effects on a wide spectrum of taxa. Studies on terrestrial invertebrates are, however, lacking. We studied climate‐connected causes of changes in population sizes in island populations of the spittlebug Philaenus spumarius (L.) (Homoptera). Three populations living in meadows on small Baltic Sea islands were investigated during the years 1970–2005 in Tvärminne archipelago, southern Finland. A separate analysis was done on the effects of NAO and local climate variables on spittlebug survival in 1969–1978, for which survival data existed for two islands. We studied survival at two stages of the life cycle: growth rate from females to next year's instars (probably mostly related to overwintering egg survival), and survival from third instar stage to adult. The latter is connected to mortality caused by desiccation of plants and spittle masses. Higher winter NAO values were consistently associated with smaller population sizes on all three islands. Local climate variables entering the most parsimonious autoregressive models of population abundance were April and May mean temperature, May precipitation, an index of May humidity, and mean temperature of the coldest month of the previous winter. High winter NAO values had a clear negative effect on late instar survival in 1969–1978. Even May–June humidity and mean temperature of the coldest month were associated with late instar survival. The climate variables studied (including NAO) had no effect on the growth rate from females to next year's instars. NAO probably affected the populations primarily in late spring. Cold and snowy winters contribute to later snow melt and greater spring humidity in the meadows. We show that winter NAO has a considerable lagged effect on April and May temperature; even this second lagged effect contributes to differences in humidity. The lagged effect of the winter NAO to spring temperatures covers a large area in northern Europe and has been relatively stationary for 100 years at least in the Baltic area.     

Winter North Atlantic Oscillation, temperature and ischaemic heart disease mortality in three English counties

As cold weather is an ischaemic heart disease (IHD) risk factor, year-to-year variations of the level of IHD mortality may be partly determined by inter-annual variations in winter climate. This paper investigates whether there is any association between the level of IHD mortality for three English counties and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exerts a fundamental control on the nature of the winter climate over Western Europe. Correlation and regression analysis was used to explore the nature of the association between IHD mortality and a climate index (CI) that represents the interaction between the NAO and temperature across England for the winters 1974–1975 to 1989–1999. Statistically significant inverse associations between the CI and the level of IHD mortality were found. Generally, high levels of winter IHD mortality are associated with a negative CI, which represents winters with a strong negative phase of the NAO and anomalously low temperatures across England. Moreover, the nature of the CI in the early stages of winter appears to exert a fundamental control on the general level of winter IHD mortality. Because winter climate is able to explain a good proportion of the inter-annual variability of winter mortality, long-lead forecasting of winter IHD mortality appears to be a possibility. The integration of climate-based health forecasts into decision support tools for advanced general winter emergency service and capacity planning could form the basis of an effective adaptive strategy for coping with the health effects of harsh winters.     

A link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and measles dynamics during the vaccination period in England and Wales

Ecologists have become aware of the role played by interannual climatic variability on the temporal dynamics of infectious diseases. In this report, I present evidence from data on measles cases in England and Wales showing that during the post-vaccination period, the interannual variability of winter weather (represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) influences the annual dynamics of the disease. Using annual measles data from seven cities and simple logistic models, this study reveals how, after vaccination, NAO increases its effects on measles fluctuations. In addition, this study shows that vaccination may be represented as a simple vertical and lateral perturbation effect (Royama's classification), by reducing the maximum per capita growth rate and the equilibrium number of infected individuals . The results suggest that vaccination will not lead to outbreaks of measles from regular cyclic to irregular chaotic dynamics. In contrast, because of the reduction in per capita growth rates, the disease dynamics appear to be more stable than during the pre-vaccination period. The analysis of annual data on infectious diseases may be useful for detecting long-term effects of climate and complements the classical analyses and modeling based on monthly or seasonal time-step data.     

Influences of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on avian productivity in forests of the Pacific Northwest of North America

To model the effects of global climate phenomena on avian population dynamics, we must identify and quantify the spatial and temporal relationships between climate, weather and bird populations. Previous studies show that in Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences winter and spring weather that in turn affects resident and migratory landbird species. Similarly, in North America, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of the Pacific Ocean reportedly drives weather patterns that affect prey availability and population dynamics of landbird species which winter in the Caribbean. Here we show that ENSO‐ and NAO‐induced seasonal weather conditions differentially affect neotropical‐ and temperate‐wintering landbird species that breed in Pacific North‐west forests of North America. For neotropical species wintering in western Mexico, El Niño conditions correlate with cooler, wetter conditions prior to spring migration, and with high reproductive success the following summer. For temperate wintering species, springtime NAO indices correlate strongly with levels of forest defoliation by the larvae of two moth species and also with annual reproductive success, especially among species known to prey upon those larvae. Generalized linear models incorporating NAO indices and ENSO precipitation indices explain 50–90% of the annual variation in productivity reported for 10 landbird species. These results represent an important step towards spatially explicit modelling of avian population dynamics at regional scales.     

The North Atlantic Oscillation and plankton dynamics in two European lakes –- two variations on a general theme

Long‐term data on water temperature, phytoplankton biovolume, Bosmina and Daphnia abundance and the timing of the clear‐water phase were compared and analysed with respect to the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in two strongly contrasting lakes in central Europe. In small, shallow, hypertrophic Müggelsee, spring water temperatures and Daphnia abundance both increased more rapidly than in large, deep, meso/oligotrophic Lake Constance. Because of this, the clear‐water phase commenced approximately three weeks earlier in Müggelsee than in Lake Constance. In Müggelsee, the phytoplankton biovolume during late winter/early spring was related to the NAO index. In Lake Constance, where phytoplankton growth was inhibited by intense downward mixing during all years studied, this was not the case. However, in both lakes, interannual variability in water temperature, in Daphnia spring population dynamics and in the timing of the clear‐water phase, were all related to the interannual variability of the NAO index. The Daphnia spring population dynamics and the timing of the clear‐water phase appear to be synchronized by the NAO despite large differences between the lakes in morphometry, trophic status and flushing and mixis regimes, and despite the great distance between the lakes (～700 km). This suggests that a great variety of lakes in central Europe may possibly have exhibited similar interannual variability during the last 20 years.     

The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling U.K. butterfly population size and phenology

1. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts considerable control on U.K. weather. This study investigates the impact of the NAO on butterfly abundance and phenology using 34 years of data from the U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS).2. The study uses a multi-species indicator to show that the NAO does not affect overall U.K. butterfly population size. However, the abundance of bivoltine butterfly species, which have longer flight seasons, were found to be more likely to respond positively to the NAO compared with univoltine species, which show little or a negative response.3. A positive winter NAO index is associated with warmer weather and earlier flight dates for Anthocharis cardamines (Lepidoptera: Pieridae), Melanargia galathea (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Aphantopus hyperantus (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Pyronia tithonus (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Lasiommata megera (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) and Polyommatus icarus (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae). In bivoltine species, the NAO affects the phenology of the first generation, the timing of which indirectly controls the timing of the second generation.4. The NAO influences the timing of U.K. butterfly flight seasons more strongly than it influences population size.     

Regime shifts in the breeding of an Atlantic puffin population

Timing of breeding is a key factor determining the reproductive success in bird populations and known to be affected by climate fluctuations. We investigated the long‐term (1978–2002) relationship between climate and hatching date within a population of Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica at Røst in the Norwegian Sea. The timing of puffin breeding was found to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAO). We isolated two temporal regimes, one where NAO had a significant effect on hatching date (1978–1986 and 1995–2002) and one where these variables were independent (1987–1994). Hatching date could be modelled using, in addition to NAO, hatching date and food abundance in the preceding breeding season (possibly proxies of parental effort). The models remained significant for regime 1 but not for regime 2. NAO differed between the two regimes suggesting that the shifts were induced by climate change, possibly via its effect on the availability of prey in the preceding year. The novelty of our study is the identification of temporal regimes in the effects of climate within one population.     

Trans‐Pacific and trans‐Arctic pathways of the intertidal macroalga Fucus distichus L. reveal multiple glacial refugia and colonizations from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic

Aim We examined the phylogeography of the cold‐temperate macroalgal species Fucus distichus L., a key foundation species in rocky intertidal shores and the only Fucus species to occur naturally in both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. Location North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans (42° to 77° N). Methods We genotyped individuals from 23 populations for a mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) intergenic spacer (IGS) (n = 608) and the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) region (n = 276), as well as for six nuclear microsatellite loci (n = 592). Phylogeographic structure and connectivity were assessed using population genetic and phylogenetic network analyses. Results IGS mtDNA haplotype diversity was highest in the North Pacific, and divergence between Pacific haplotypes was much older than that of the single cluster of Atlantic haplotypes. Two ancestral Pacific IGS/COI clusters led to a widespread Atlantic cluster. High mtDNA and microsatellite diversities were observed in Prince William Sound, Alaska, 11 years after severe disturbance by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Main conclusions At least two colonizations occurred from the older North Pacific populations to the North Atlantic between the opening of the Bering Strait and the onset of the Last Glacial Maximum. One colonization event was from the Japanese Archipelago/eastern Aleutians, and a second was from the Alaskan mainland around the Gulf of Alaska. Japanese populations probably arose from a single recolonization event from the eastern Aleutian Islands before the North Pacific–North Atlantic colonization. In the North Atlantic, the Last Glacial Maximum forced the species into at least two known glacial refugia: the Nova Scotia/Newfoundland (Canada) region and Andøya (northern Norway). The presence of two private haplotypes in the central Atlantic suggests the possibility of colonization from other refugia that are now too warm to support F. distichus. With the continuing decline in Arctic ice cover as a result of global climate change, renewed contact between North Pacific and North Atlantic populations of Fucus species is expected.     

The contribution of single and colonial cells of Phaeocystis pouchetii to spring and summer blooms in the north-eastern North Atlantic

Studies of the phytoplankton ecology in different localities in north-Norwegian fjords, the White Sea and the Barents Sea were carried out in spring and early summer to investigate the contribution of single and colonial stages of Phaeocystis pouchetii to phytoplankton abundance. Three different types of flagellated and four colonial cells were observed in all localities. P. pouchetii was rare under the ice of the Barents and White Seas, but their abundance increased rapidly during ice retreat. Single cell C dominated over colonial cell C, often by 50 times or more. The highest share of colonial cells was encountered in April in northern Norwegian fjords, in May in the Barents Sea and in May–June in the White Sea. At times the single cell dominated the total P. pouchetii biomass in Balsfjord (April 1999, 2001) with hardly any colonies present. In the White Sea colonies of P. pouchetii were less abundant than in the other regions. Cell carbon of P. pouchetii colonies appears never to be as dominating in the north-eastern North Atlantic as P. globosa blooms in coastal regions such as the southern North Sea. However, the lobal matrix of P. pouchetii colonies appears to be less solid than that of P. globosa and partly dissolution of the colony matrix during handling and storage of fixes samples induces uncertainty about the absolute numbers of P. pouchetii colonial cell counts. Despite of that, single cells of P. pouchetii seem to dominate significantly over colonial cell biomass at most sites and during some years and in some regions colonial cells seem rare. We speculate that top-down regulation of Phaeocystis spp. blooms possibly determines the ratio between single and colonial cells.     

Areas of shallow water in the North Atlantic

We report here estimates of the areas of water that are between 1 and 100 m and between 1 and 200 m deep in the North Atlantic, including the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, Hudson Bay and the North Sea, but excluding estuaries. The total areas within these depths, from the equator to 70° N, are 3.91 × 10⁶ km² and 5.66 × 10⁶ km², respectively. We also report the respective areas by selected geographic regions.     

Common Buzzards wintering strategies as an effect of weather conditions and geographic barriers

AimMigration is a constantly changing adaptation due to the climate condition evolution. The struggle for surviving during harsh winter season is different across Europe, being more complex toward the inner parts of the continent. The current approach explores the Common Buzzard number variation during the cold season and the climatic predictors of birds of prey wintering movements in relation to the possible influences of the Carpathian Mountains, which may act as a geographical barrier providing shelter from cold air outbreak from north and northeast of the continent.LocationRomania (45°N25°E).TaxonBirds of Prey.MethodsWe applied a GLMM to investigate the relation between continental and local climatic factors with the number of Common Buzzard observations in two regions. The first region is located inside the Carpathian Arch and the other one outside, east of this large mountains chain.ResultsThe Common Buzzard numbers wintering Eastern from the Carpathian Mountains are highly influenced by AO (Z = 2.87, p < .05%), while those wintering western are influenced by NAO (Z = 2.17, p < .05%). This is the first proof of separating influences for biodiversity of AO and NAO at continental scale, outlining the influence limit placed over the Eastern Carpathian Mountains.Main conclusionsThe Carpathian Mountains act like a geographic barrier, separating the wintering Common Buzzard populations from both sides of the mountain range. While the high number of individuals in Moldova is related to their eastern and northeastern Europe origins, in Transylvania the large number of individuals observed is related to the more sheltered characteristics of the region attracting individuals from central Europe. Also, since Transylvania region is well sheltered during cold air outbreak, it represents a more favorable region for wintering. From this point of view, we can consider that the Carpathian Mountains are a geographic barrier for wintering birds of prey.     

Distribution of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Boroecia borealis</Emphasis> (Ostracoda: Halocyprididae) in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent waters of the Atlantic

The geographical and vertical distribution of Boroecia borealis was studied based on literature data and materials collected by Soviet and Russian expeditions in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent waters of the Atlantic during the period from 1929 to 1993. In the region of study, this species occurs at a temperature from 0.5 to 17.7°C. In the Arctic basin, B. borealis is predominantly found in the warm deep Atlantic layer. The central Arctic region is not a zone of exclusion of this species, but is a part of the species’ range, where its apparently dependent populations occur. In the northern Atlantic, B. borealis can reach into the low latitudes as far as 30°N.     

Effect of Sub-Polar Gyre, North Atlantic Oscillation and ambient temperature on size and abundance in the Icelandic Arctic fox

Animals are exposed to environmental factors that influence their life history and body size. Here we used the Arctic fox ( Vulpes lagopus ) as an indicator of the complex links between largescale environmental variables that influence both marine and tundra trophic dynamics to demonstrate how they affect the fox's body size and abundance. The Arctic fox inhabits throughout Iceland, where it preys mainly on birds. We studied the effects of the Sub-Polar Gyre (SPG), winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), mean annual winter and summer temperature, and geographic sector (eastern and western Iceland, which differ in their ecology) on variations in mandible size (6345 specimens) and body mass (2732 specimens) as well as abundance on the Arctic fox in Iceland. We found that (a) SPG index negatively affected male mandible length as well as body mass of both sexes. SPG was also negatively related to fox abundance. (b) Summer NAO had a negative effect on Arctic foxes, that is, cold summers were correlated with shorter mandibles and lower body mass. (c) Winter NAO had a significant negative effect (although weaker than that of summer NAO) on female mandible length, but not on body mass. (d) Summer temperature had a positive effect on female mandible length, but no effect on body mass. However, winter temperature had no effect on either the mandible or body mass. (e) Foxes in the eastern sector had shorter mandibles and were of lighter mass than those in the western sector. We suggest that climate conditions during the growth period of the young affected their final size both directly, by influencing energy metabolism for maintenance, but mainly through their effects on food availability. As far as we are aware, this is the first report that the SPG has an effect on vertebrates, let alone terrestrial ones.     

The global distributional patterns of toxic, bloom dinoflagellates recorded from the Eurasian Arctic

The global distributional patterns are presented for 14 toxic and potentially toxic dinoflagellate species (PSP, DSP, yessotoxin, azaspiracid and their analogues, ichthyotoxic and haemolytic compound producers) recorded from the Eurasian Arctic and which have caused harmful blooms elsewhere. The distributional patterns are based on materials collected during 28 expeditions to the Eurasian Arctic during the period from 1976 to 1999 (1810 samples from 539 stations) and about 500 literary sources. All Russian literature on the occurrences of dinoflagellates in the Eurasian Arctic was analyzed and relevant references are given.