长江中游城市群城市生态承载力时空格局及其影响因素

长江中游城市群是我国的典型生态敏感区和重点开发区,科学评价其生态承载力具有重要的科学价值和现实意义。从城市生态系统的组成要素、结构特征出发,选择状态空间法从社会经济协调力、资源环境支撑力和生态弹性力3个维度构建了城市生态承载力综合评价指标体系,综合运用空间分析、多元回归、地理加权回归等方法深入分析了2006—2015年长江中游城市群城市生态承载力时空格局及其影响因素。结果表明:①2006—2015年长江中游城市群城市生态承载力指数总体呈波动上升的"W"型走势,社会经济协调力维度呈波动下降的趋势,而资源环境支撑力和生态弹性力维度整体呈波动上升的趋势;②从空间格局来看,2006—2015年长江中游城市群城市生态承载力表现出显著的空间关联性与异质性,环洞庭湖地区和环鄱阳湖城市群地区形成两大高值集聚区,而在武汉城市圈和环长株潭城市群核心区域形成两大低值集聚区;③社会发展水平、城镇居民收入水平、人口密度、经济发展效率、资源供给状况和环境污染治理水平等要素对长江中游城市群城市生态承载力空间分异格局的影响较为显著,影响强度具有空间异质性特征。     

重点生态功能区农户生计对环境资源的依赖性——以甘南高原为例

重点生态功能区承担着重要的生态系统服务供给功能,农户作为该区主要的经济活动主体,其对环境资源过度依赖会严重影响该区的生态环境质量,从而使生态系统服务功能受损。当前亟需深入探索重点生态功能区农户生计对环境资源的依赖性及其影响因素,为制定环境友好型区域发展政策提供借鉴。本研究以甘南高原为例,基于581份农户调查数据,分析了农户生计对环境资源的依赖度,并利用有序多分类Logistic回归模型识别了影响农户环境资源依赖度的因素。结果表明: 甘南高原农户生计对环境资源的依赖度较高,其主要体现在食物自给、生活用能、收入来源3个方面,依赖度分别为57.3%、56.9%和37.4%;不同类型农户生计对环境资源的依赖性存在显著差异,劳动力受教育水平较高及非农化水平较高的农户,对环境资源的依赖度较低,而抚养比系数较高的农户对环境资源的依赖度较高;家庭抚养比、劳动力受教育水平、家庭成员领导能力、外出打工人数占劳动力比重、生态政策、海拔等因素均对农户的环境资源依赖度有显著影响。其中,家庭抚养比、海拔对其具有正向影响,而外出打工人数占劳动力比重、劳动力受教育水平、家庭成员领导能力、生态政策等因素对其表现为负向影响。     

基于DPSIR模型的国家级生态文明先行示范区生态文明建设分析评价——以湘江源头为例

结合国家级生态文明先行示范区生态文明建设的基本要求,将欧洲环境局的DPSIR环境管理模型引入到其生态文明建设分析评价当中,阐述了其分析评价的四个核心要点,并据此从生态制度、生态经济、生态社会和生态环境4个方面选取40个指标建立了评价指标体系,以湘江源头国家级生态文明先行示范区为研究对象,运用粗糙集理论和方法,就其生态文明建设展开分析评价,验证了评价模型的合理性、可操作性。结果表明:一是DPSIR模型能够很好地体现生态文明建设各因素间的因果关系信息,模型显示,可通过增强"驱动力"、降低"压力"、优化"状态"、妥对"影响"、全面"响应"等途径来增强示范区生态文明建设效果。二是从指标权重和研究的结果来看,对生态文明建设有着正向影响且权重较大的指标,要重视其正向影响并积极推动其效应最大化,对一些制约或影响生态文明建设的负向指标,要严格做好控制工作并减少其影响效应。三是研究得出湘江源头国家级生态文明先行示范区宁远、江华和蓝山三县生态文明建设总体水平呈现稳步上升的趋势。生态社会、经济和制度的"驱动力"持续增强,生态资源和环境"状态"不断改善,生态社会和经济"影响"逐渐合妥,生态社会、经济和环境"响应"全面迅速,但经济转型、资源和环境"压力"仍然亟待降低。建议从生态文明先行示范区创建的要求着手,对照目标,弥补差距,推动示范区建设高质量发展。     

A decision tree approach to modelling nitrogen fertiliser use efficiency in New Zealand pastures

Quantifying nitrogen (N) fertiliser use efficiency (NFUE) in pastoral systems has important implications for fertiliser management from both economic and environmental points of view. The potential of a decision tree approach for modelling NFUE in New Zealand pastures was investigated. The decision tree model suggested that the time of applying N fertiliser was the most important factor influencing NFUE, with August or September (early spring in New Zealand) being the best time of application. The interaction of rainfall and temperature, rainfall, phosphorus (P) fertiliser history, soil Olsen P and slope were other important factors influencing NFUE. The model was validated for 11 of the 16 trials tested with a predictive accuracy of 69%. The mechanisms by which these factors influenced NFUE and the uncertainty associated with the model prediction were discussed. It was concluded that this type of modelling approach can be used to predict NFUE and thereby to assist decisions on when and where to apply N fertiliser in pastures for increasing productivity while reducing the environmental impact.     

Environmental Performance Analysis of Eco‐Industrial Parks in China: A Data Envelopment Analysis Approach

In pursuit of more sustainable development of industry, China has been actively developing eco‐industrial parks (EIPs) for more than a decade. However, the environmental value of these EIPs remains largely unverified. This study aimed to evaluate the environmental performance of national EIPs in China using data envelopment analysis. Eco‐efficiency and environmental performance indices were used to represent the static and dynamic environmental performance of EIPs, respectively. An environmental performance index was formed by combining measures of eco‐efficiency in a dynamic setting with the sequential Malmquist index approach. We obtained three main empirical findings. First, 34 national EIPs exhibited a cumulative environmental performance improvement of 89.4% from 2007 to 2010, which is primarily the result of eco‐efficiency change rather than environmental technical change. Second, compared with the trial EIPs, the demonstration EIPs had a higher average eco‐efficiency (0.611 vs. 0.446 in 2010) and experienced greater average environmental performance improvement (129% vs. 60%). Third, the EIPs retrofitted from high‐tech industrial development zones exhibited much higher average eco‐efficiency (0.798 vs. 0.440 in 2010) than those retrofitted from economic and technical development zones. The key measures supporting the performance improvement and policy implications for the development of EIPs are also discussed.     

上海城市热岛效应形成机制及空间格局

城市热岛效应的产生及演变与城市地表覆被变化、人类社会经济活动密切相关,是城市生态环境状况的综合概括与体现,目前对城市热岛形成、演变的驱动机制、热岛效应与地表覆被变化的定量关系研究大多还是从对某些影响因子的测定入手,缺乏对区域热环境系统全面、综合的评价与分析.近年来,在城市化过程中,人类社会、经济活动的加剧使城市地表热力景观呈现出高度的空间异质性,在利用Landsat 7 ETM+热波段数据反演上海地区地表温度的基础上,应用地统计学方法揭示了不同尺度下上海城市地表温度场空间变异特征及其不同的驱动因子.进而,采用决策树方法构造城市热环境系统的分类和预测模型,建立中心城区地表温度场空间分布及其驱动因素之间的定量关系,挖掘上海城市热岛效应的形成机制,揭示出多种影响因素综合作用下中心城区热环境空间格局差异.研究结果表明,城市热环境形成的驱动因子在空间上呈现出明显的分异性特征,各种影响因素在空间上不同的组合方式将决定城市热岛效应的时空演变趋势.运用决策树方法可以有效地确定在城市内部不同区域影响热环境形成的主导因素,揭示城市热岛形成与演变的成因机制及其空间差异,并可以进一步用来预测分析未来城市地表温度场动态变化的空间分布格局.     

东北地区生态资本效率时空差异与影响因素

生态资本是生态文明建设的重要支点,测度生态资本效率的时空分异和影响因素,有助于了解生态资本效率现状进而提升生态文明水平实现绿色发展.选取东北地区作为研究区域,运用超效率数据包络分析法(DEA)模型和Malmquist指数测度东北地区生态资本效率的时空变化并对影响因素进行分析.结果表明: 东北地区生态资本效率总体良好,呈现先升后降的趋势,黑龙江生态资本效率较高,呈“U”型发展,吉林、辽宁生态资本效率相对较低.Malmquist指数分析显示,技术进步是生态资本效率提升的主要推动力量.Tobit回归分析结果表明,环境的规模效应、人口结构效应变量对生态资本效率具有显著的正向影响,科技投资效率低导致环境技术效应变量与生态资本效率呈负相关.提高东北地区生态资本效率,一方面要加快产业结构调整,发展生态经济;另一方面要提升科技资金的投入效率,依托技术进步实现东北地区经济的绿色发展.     

旅游地生态效率测度的SBM-DEA模型及实证分析

旅游地是典型的人地关系相互作用的特殊区域,旅游地的生态效率研究是其制定与实施包容性、持续性发展政策与措施的基础。采用基于时间序列、包含非期望产出的SBM-DEA模型方法,构建旅游地生态效率测度模型及评价指标体系,以黄山风景区为例,利用1981—2014年的投入产出数据,测度旅游地复合系统的生态效率,分析其演化特征和阶段,并利用Tobit回归模型对其影响因素进行实证检验。结果表明:(1)34年来,黄山风景区旅游生态效率(综合效率)不断提升,且具较大发展潜力,在分解效率中,技术效率较高,规模效率次之,规模效率是决定综合效率的关键因素;(2)旅游生态效率的演化经历了初期低效、快速成长、成熟高效、下行风险四个阶段,不同阶段效率的特征不同,影响因素也存在差异;(3)旅游生态效率完成了由规模报酬递增向递减的过渡,资源要素的投入冗余已成为现阶段阻碍生态效率的进一步提高的关键因素;(4)旅游发展水平、产业结构和技术水平对生态效率产生显著的正向影响,投资水平产生显著的负向影响,以废弃物末端治理为表征的环保规制对生态效率的提升作用并不显著。文章最后提出,在山岳型风景区发展初期,应尽可能扩大资源要素投入规模,进入成熟阶段后,则转向逐渐控制投入规模,改善技术能力和资源配置能力,摒弃过度依靠资源消耗和环境污染的粗放式发展模式,走精细化、可持续的发展道路。     

Productivity-independent initial growth of individual leaves in sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.)

Growth rates of individual leaves attached to sunflower (Helianthus annuus) plants were measured experimentally under different levels of environmental productivity, modified by irradiance and nutrient conditions. The unfolding rate and final area of an individual leaf increased with increasing environmental productivity. The final area of an individual leaf also varied according to differences in leaf order. The declining pattern of relative leaf area growth rate (RLGR) varied with environmental productivity; leaves in a productive environment had a longer period of high sustained initial RLGR than leaves in a less productive environment. However, maximum RLGR was hardly influenced by leaf order or environmental factors such as irradiance and mineral nutrition. This article is dedicated to Prof. Emeritus Toshiro Saeki in recognition of his fruitful career in plant ecology.     

草原生态补助奖励政策牧民满意度及影响因素研究——基于甘肃青藏高原区与西部荒漠区的实证

草原生态补偿是我国建设生态文明的必由之路之一。牧民对草原生态补助奖励政策的满意度,一定程度上反映了补奖政策实施的绩效。甘肃省针对不同牧区特点,实施了差别化的补奖标准。选取甘肃青藏高原区和西部荒漠区两个不同草原牧区类型351户牧民为调研对象,结合入户深度访谈和调查问卷,构建满意度评价指标体系,测定了不同牧区牧民对草原生态补奖政策的满意度,借助Logistic模型分析不同牧区牧民政策满意度与影响因素。结果表明:(1)牧民对草原生态补奖政策总体满意度偏低,满意度综合指数为67.24%。(2)牧民生计多样化对政策评价具有重要影响。西部荒漠区牧民收入来源较青藏高原区多样化,畜牧业所占比重低于青藏高原区,政策实施对牧民收入影响较小,青藏高原区牧民满意度为62.43%,低于西部荒漠区的72.35%。(3)牧民对政策作用的认知、家庭规模以及对政策的了解,是影响两个区域牧民对政策满意度的共同因素,但两个区域呈现出较大差异性。因此,在后续政策实施中,实施"精准补偿"措施,多样化补偿标准和补偿方式,加强政策宣传和引导,示范引领安置牧民,延长畜牧业产业链,实现畜牧产业"三产"融合,逐步实现草原生态保护、牧业转型发展和牧民增收三方共赢。     

区域环境、家庭禀赋与秸秆处置行为——以甘肃省旱作农业区为例

研究农户秸秆利用方式及其影响因素对提高秸秆资源利用效率、缓解环境负外部效应具有重要意义。本研究基于生态理性构建了农户秸秆处置行为分析框架,以甘肃省旱作区424个农户的调查数据为基础,运用Logit模型对农户秸秆焚烧与饲料化利用意愿及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明: 农户秸秆处置行为是农户长期与周边客观环境长期适应、协同进化过程中所形成的决策认知下的行为结果。旱作区农户秸秆处置方式呈现出以饲料化利用和燃料为主的多元化特征,秸秆焚烧弃置依旧普遍。在影响农户秸秆焚烧处置行为的诸多因素中,户主年龄(P<0.1)、农户受教育程度(P<0.01)、牲畜饲养规模(P<0.05)、农业收入占比(P<0.1)和政府政策宣传(P<0.01)对农户秸秆焚烧行为具有显著的抑制作用。而户主性别(P<0.1)与农户秸秆焚烧认知(P<0.01)助推农户非亲环境行为选择,农户秸秆焚烧政策认知度低,环保意识淡薄。户主年龄(P<0.1)、农户受教育程度(P<0.05)、家庭成员是否担任村干部(P<0.05)、饲料加工技术指导(P<0.01)以及禁烧补助(P<0.1)等因素对农户秸秆的饲料化利用有正向影响,而地形(P<0.1)对农户秸秆饲料化利用有负向影响。最后,从构建“禁焚与补贴”结合机制、加强秸秆饲料化利用技术推广、加快完善秸秆收储运保障服务体系等方面提出促进秸秆资源化利用的政策建议。     

How to Deal with Resource Productivity

Resource productivity enhancement stands at the center of tackling issues on environmental pollution and resource scarcity. Identifying influential socioeconomic factors should be the first step in establishing and improving resource management policy. This study compares and analyzes data from multiple countries to construct a resource productivity simulation model. The socioeconomic factors and their characteristic patterns are discussed in detail. The results demonstrate that the major factors influencing resource productivity include income level, population density, economic structure, energy structure, and raw material trade. Among these factors, the three most important are income level, population density, and economic structure. The influencing patterns can be summarized as follows: (1) Resource productivity increases with increasing income levels. (2) Countries with high population density are inclined to demonstrate high resource productivity. (3) The economic structure shows a biphase influence on resource productivity, that is, during industrialization, decreased agricultural activity and increased industrial activity lead to higher resource productivity. On the other hand, after industrialization, decreasing industrial activity and an expanding service sector become the major impetus of resource productivity enhancement. (4) Raw material export demonstrates a negative effect on resource productivity. Countries that depend heavily on raw material export show a unique resource productivity evolution pattern. For these countries, relatively high resource productivity in low income phases and relatively low resource productivity in high income phases show only small increases in resource efficiency and economic growth. Finally, insights from the study are transformed into suggestions for sustainable resource management and resource productivity enhancement.     

Assessing the relative role of climate and human activities on vegetation cover changes in the up–down stream of Danjiangkou,China

气候与人类活动对丹江口上下游植被覆盖变化的影响 丹江口水库是南水北调中线工程的水源地,研究丹江口水库植被覆盖动态变化及其影响因素,对于了解南水北调中线工程的生态环境及制定保护措施具有重要意义。本研究采用归一化植被指数(NDVI)分析了1982–2018年丹江口大坝上下游植被的动态变化及其影响因素。研究结果表明,研究 时段内NDVI呈0.017year^-1的增加趋势(P < 0.05),显著增加的区域位于大坝上游河谷附近,显著减少的区 域主要分布在大坝下游流域和中心城区周围。气候变化和人类活动对NDVI变化的综合贡献率分别为92.03%和7.97%。大坝上游的人类活动主要体现在退耕还林等生态措施的实施,大坝下游的人类活动主要表现为城市扩张、建设用地占用耕地和林地等。     

生态系统价值在政策制度设计中的应用——以福州市为例

在探索生态系统价值可复制、可推广、可示范的核算模式的基础上,如何合理应用生态系统价值核算结果、形成生态系统价值政策制度应用体系、促进生态系统服务价值由“核算值”向“政策点”转化是目前亟待解决的问题。本研究以福州市经济生态生产总值(GEEP)和生态系统生产总值(GEP)核算为切入点,对GEEP进行指标筛选,并计算绿金指数和单位面积价值量,分析其在政策制度设计中的应用模式。结果表明: 污染物吸收量、物种保育更新能值、湿地重度威胁面积占比、空气负氧离子释放量、耕地占用率、海洋围填海面积占比、固碳量、释氧量、草地覆盖变化率、海岸防护面积、固体废弃物环境退化成本是显著影响福州市GEEP核算结果的指标;福州市2015和2018年绿金指数分别为1.59和1.23,均高于全国水平;福州市各生态系统单位面积价值量大小依次为湿地生态系统＞森林生态系统＞农田生态系统＞草地生态系统＞海洋生态系统。基于福州市GEEP影响因素和绿金指数、单位面积价值量,本研究构建了福州市生态系统价值核算结果“进决策、进规划、进考核、进监测”的管理制度和模式,为我国形成助推生态文明建设的长效机理机制提供了理论依据。     

Predator–prey encounter rates in freshwater piscivores: effects of prey density and water transparency

One of the most fundamental components of predator–prey models is encounter rate, modelled as the product of prey density and search efficiency. Encounter rates have, however, rarely been measured in empirical studies. In this study, we used a video system approach to estimate how encounter rates between piscivorous fish that use a sit-and-wait foraging strategy and their prey depend on prey density and environmental factors such as turbidity. We first manipulated prey density in a controlled pool and field enclosure experiments where environmental factors were held constant. In a correlative study of 15 freshwater lakes we then estimated encounter rates in natural habitats and related the results to both prey fish density and environmental factors. We found the expected positive dependence of individual encounter rates on prey density in our pool and enclosure experiments, whereas the relation between school encounter rate and prey density was less clear. In the field survey, encounter rates did not correlate with prey density but instead correlated positively with water transparency. Water transparency decreases with increasing prey density along the productivity gradient and will reduce prey detection distance and thus predator search efficiency. Therefore, visual predator–prey encounter rates do not increase, and may even decrease, with increasing productivity despite increasing prey densities.     

苹果绵蚜在中国适生区预测及发生影响因子

苹果绵蚜是苹果上一种重要的检疫性害虫,每年给苹果产区造成严重的经济损失.预测苹果绵蚜适生性区域和影响其定殖扩散的环境因子,能够开展苹果绵蚜分布区域测报、制定有效的检疫措施并为防治决策提供依据.本研究基于最大熵算法的生态位模型MaxEnt和地理信息系统软件ArcGIS对苹果绵蚜进行适生区分析及预测,用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)对预测模型和预测结果进行评估,并用Jackknife方法分析影响绵蚜发生的重要因子.结果表明,苹果绵蚜在我国适生范围很广,其中,辽宁、山东、河南、河北、安徽、江苏、陕西等省的适生性指数较高,对苹果绵蚜发生具有重要影响的是与温度相关的环境因子.     

乡镇遥感生态指数时空变化及影响因子研究——以天津市蓟州区为例

进行乡镇生态环境质量评价和其空间分异性的影响因子分析,探讨其自身发展及对环境影响的机理,有助于相关部门有针对性地进行政策调整,对实现乡村生产生活与生态环境协调发展,实现乡村振兴的生态文明建设目标有重要意义。本文以天津市蓟州区乡镇为评估单元,利用遥感数据、统计数据和社会调查数据相结合的方法,使用遥感生态指数(RSEI)对其2000—2020年的生态环境质量进行评价,并选取四大类型共九个影响因子,通过地理探测器对蓟州区2020年乡镇生态环境质量的空间分异性影响因素进行了分析。结果表明,蓟州区2000年到2020年乡镇生态环境质量整体有所提升,生态环境质量等级为差和极差的区域明显减少,生态环境质量等级为好的区域面积增加;其变化趋势可分为持续上升型、波动上升型和波动下降型,除礼明庄镇外,其他评估单元生态环境质量都在向好的方向发展。在单因子探测中,地形因子的影响力大于社会因子和经济因子,即蓟州区乡镇生态环境质量的空间分布受海拔影响要大于其他社会经济因素的影响;在交互作用探测中,任意两个影响因子交互之后的作用强度都要大于单一影响因子,其中干度指数与绿度指数的交互作用解释力最高;说明土地利用变化和城...     

生态补偿效率研究综述

作为一种处理环境问题的政策工具集,生态补偿的目的在于通过将生态系统外部价值转化为对参与者的财政激励而增加生态系统服务供给。因此,生态补偿项目能否实现预期目标就成为生态补偿理论研究者与实践者关注的焦点与热点。基于国际上生态补偿效率理论研究与实践进展,介绍了生态补偿效率分析框架,分析了生态补偿无效率状况,较为系统地总结了影响生态补偿效率的因素,提出应从建立准确的生态补偿基线、进行生态补偿对象空间定位、合理估算真实机会成本、降低交易成本等方面出发,提高生态补偿效率。提出了生态补偿效率研究中应进一步关注的问题。     

桃树冠层蒸腾动态的数学模拟

将气孔导度公式、Penman—Monteith公式和土壤水分限制模型相结合,可以模拟出不同环境因子对植物蒸腾进程的影响。通过对盆栽桃树（Prunus persica var．nectadna Maxim．）数值模拟发现：影响桃树蒸腾速率的主要气象因子是太阳辐射、大气温度和湿度。植物通过气孔导度的改变来响应气象因子的变化,蒸腾的日变化主要是由气象因子的日变化引起的。土壤的水分状况也对气孔导度有显著的影响,进而影响植物的蒸腾大小。通过数值模拟还发现植物的蒸腾量并不总是随叶面积的增大而增大,对于桃树而言叶面积指数为4左右时日蒸腾量达到最大值。通过对气孔导度和蒸腾速率的模拟值和实测值进行检验发现,两者基本吻合,说明利用数学模拟的方法可以求出不同环境条件和不同叶面积桃树冠层的蒸腾速率。     

Market Integration, Livelihood Transitions and Environmental Change in Areas of Low Agricultural Productivity: A Case Study from Morocco

Rural areas of the developing world have become increasingly integrated into the world economy through both production and consumption during the last decades. This growing integration shapes the development of communities and influences their relationship to the natural environment. Where livelihoods are constrained by resource limitations and the productivity of labor in farm activities is low, it may result in a shift to nonfarm activities, which may under some conditions improve wellbeing and relieve pressure on natural resources. The possibility of such a “win-win” development pathway has important implications for development and environmental policy. In this article we use original qualitative and quantitative data to examine environmental and social changes during the last half century in a rural area of Morocco, seeking evidence of such a pathway. While our case study supports the hypothesis that nonfarm diversification in a context of resource scarcity allowed people to improve their material living conditions, the effects of economic integration and nonfarm diversification on the environment were mixed.