Modeling Corn Ethanol and Climate

New fuel regulations based on life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have focused renewed attention on life cycle models of biofuels. The BESS model estimates 25% lower life cycle GHG emissions for corn ethanol than does the well-known GREET model, which raises questions about which model is more accurate. I develop a life cycle metamodel to compare the GREET and BESS models in detail and to explain why the results from these models diverge. I find two main reasons for the divergence: (1) BESS models a more efficient biorefinery than is modeled in the cases to which its results have been compared, and (2) in several instances BESS fails to properly count upstream emissions. Adjustments to BESS to account for these differences raise the estimated global warming intensity (not including land use change) of the corn ethanol pathway considered in that model from 45 to 61 g CO₂e MJ⁻¹. Adjusting GREET to use BESS's biorefinery performance and coproduct credit assumptions reduces the GREET estimate from 64 to 61 g CO₂e MJ⁻¹. Although this analysis explains the gap between the two models, both models would be improved with better data on corn production practices and by better treatment of agricultural inputs.     

Gross Direct and Embodied Carbon Sinks for Urban Inventories

Cities and urban regions are undertaking efforts to quantify greenhouse (GHG) emissions from their jurisdictional boundaries. Although inventorying methodologies are beginning to standardize for GHG sources, carbon sequestration is generally not quantified. This article describes the methodology and quantification of gross urban carbon sinks. Sinks are categorized into direct and embodied sinks. Direct sinks generally incorporate natural process, such as humification in soils and photosynthetic biomass growth (in urban trees, perennial crops, and regional forests). Embodied sinks include activities associated with consumptive behavior that result in the import and/or storage of carbon, such as landfilling of waste, concrete construction, and utilization of durable wood products. Using methodologies based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2006 guidelines (for direct sinks) and peer‐reviewed literature (for embodied sinks), carbon sequestration for 2005 is calculated for the Greater Toronto Area. Direct sinks are found to be 317 kilotons of carbon (kt C), and are dominated by regional forest biomass. Embodied sinks are calculated to be 234 kt C based on one year's consumption, though a complete life cycle accounting of emissions would likely transform this sum from a carbon sink to a source. There is considerable uncertainty associated with the methodologies used, which could be addressed with city‐specific stock‐change measurements. Further options for enhancing carbon sink capacity within urban environments are explored, such as urban biomass growth and carbon capture and storage.     

Corporate Carbon Performance Indicators

The dependency on carbon‐based materials and energy sources and the emission of greenhouse gases have been recognized as major problems of the 21st century. Companies are central to the effort to grapple with these issues due to the large material flows they process and their capabilities for technological innovation. It is important, on the one hand, to determine the individual stake companies have in these issues and, on the other, to measure companies' performance. Since the results of studies thus far have been ambiguous, we define four comprehensive and systematic corporate carbon performance indicators: (1) Carbon intensity is physically oriented and represents a company's carbon use in relation to a business metric. (2) Carbon dependency illustrates the change in physical carbon performance within a given time period. (3) Carbon exposure reveals the financial implications of using and emitting carbon. (4) Carbon risk estimates the change in financial implications of carbon usage within a given time period. On the basis of these general definitions, we specify the indicators for a standardized application that can support two important stakeholders in their decision making: policy makers, who can include such information when evaluating current climate policies and formulating future ones, and investors and financial institutions, which can compare companies with respect to their carbon performance and corresponding financial effects.     

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process‐based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO₂ fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO₂ fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post‐fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.     

Impact of Power Generation Mix on Life Cycle Assessment and Carbon Footprint Greenhouse Gas Results

The mix of electricity consumed in any stage in the life cycle of a product, process, or industrial sector has a significant effect on the associated inventory of emissions and environmental impacts because of large differences in the power generation method used. Fossil‐fuel‐fired or nuclear‐centralized steam generators; large‐scale and small‐scale hydroelectric power; and renewable options, such as geothermal, wind, and solar power, each have a unique set of issues that can change the results of a life cycle assessment. This article shows greenhouse gas emissions estimates for electricity purchase for different scenarios using U.S. average electricity mix, state mixes, state mixes including imports, and a sector‐specific mix to show how different these results can be. We find that greenhouse gases for certain sectors and scenarios can change by more than 100%. Knowing this, practitioners should exercise caution or at least account for the uncertainty associated with mix choice.     

Effect of Change of Forest Carbon Storage on Net Carbon Dioxide Balance of Wood Use for Energy in Japan

This study analyzed the net carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reductions between 2005 and 2050 by using wood for energy under various scenarios of forest management and energy conversion technology in Japan, considering both CO₂ emission reductions from replacement of fossil fuels and changes in carbon storage in forests. According to our model, wood production for energy results in a significant reduction of carbon storage levels in forests (by 46% to 77% in 2050 from the 2005 level). Thus, the net CO₂ emission reduction when wood is used for energy becomes drastically smaller. Conventional tree production for energy increases net CO₂ emissions relative to preserving forests, but fast‐growing tree production may reduce net CO₂ emissions more than preserving forests does. When wood from fast‐growing trees is used to generate electricity with gas turbines, displacing natural gas, the net CO₂ emission reduction from the combination of fast‐growing trees and electricity generation with gas turbines is about 58% of the CO₂ emission reduction from electricity generation from gas turbines alone in 2050, and an energy conversion efficiency of around 20% or more is required to obtain net reductions over the entire period until 2050. When wood is used to produce bioethanol, displacing gasoline, net reductions are realized after 2030, provided that heat energy is recovered from residues from ethanol production. These results show the importance of considering the change in carbon storage when estimating the net CO₂ emission reduction effect of the wood use for energy.     

Interannual variation and climatic regulation of the CO2 emission from large boreal lakes

We studied the interannual variation of surface water partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) and the CO₂ emissions from the 37 large Finnish lakes linking them to the water quality, catchment and climate attributes in 1996–2001. The lake water CO₂ was measured three times a year in the study lakes in 1998 and 1999 and for the rest of the years the CO₂ was modeled by measured alkalinity. The median annual CO₂ emission to the atmosphere ranged between 1.49 and 2.29 mol m^?2 a^?1. The annual CO₂ emission followed closely the annual precipitation pattern with the highest emission during the years when the precipitation was highest (r²=0.81–0.97, P<0.05). There was a strong negative correlation (r²=0.50–0.82, P<0.001) between O₂ and CO₂ saturation in the lake water during stratification suggesting effective decomposition of organic matter in the lakes. Furthermore, total phosphorus and the proportion of agricultural land in the catchment had significant positive correlations with CO₂ saturation.     

Carbon Footprint Assessment of a Paperback Book

This study presents the carbon footprint of a paperback book for which the cover and inside papers were produced in the United States and printed in Canada. The choice of paper mills for both cover and page papers was based on criteria such as percentage of recycled content in the pulp mix, transport distances (pulp mill to paper mill, paper mill to print), and technologies. The cradle‐to‐gate assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions follows recognized guidelines for carbon footprint assessment. The results show that the production of 400,000 books, mainly distributed in North America, would generate 1,084 tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂‐eq), or 2.71 kilograms (kg) CO₂‐eq per book. The impact of using deinked market pulp (DMP) is shown here to be detrimental, accounting for 54% of total GHG emissions and being 32% higher than reference virgin Kraft pulp. This supports findings that DMP mill GHG emissions strongly correlate with the carbon intensity of the power grid supplying the pulp mill and that virgin Kraft mills that reuse wood residue and black liquor to produce heat and electricity can achieve lower GHG emissions per tonne of pulp produced. Although contrary to common thinking, this is consistent with the Paper Task Force 2002 conclusion for office paper (the closest paper grade to writing paper or fine paper) (EDF 2002a). To get a cradle‐to‐grave perspective, three different end‐of‐life (EOL) scenarios were analyzed, all of which included a harvested wood product (HWP) carbon storage benefit for 25 years. The GHG offset concept within the context of the book editor's “carbon‐neutral” paper claims is also discussed.     

Carbon fluxes from a tropical peat swamp forest floor

A tropical ombrotrophic peatland ecosystem is one of the largest terrestrial carbon stores. Flux rates of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) were studied at various peat water table depths in a mixed‐type peat swamp forest floor in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Temporary gas fluxes on microtopographically differing hummock and hollow peat surfaces were combined with peat water table data to produce annual cumulative flux estimates. Hummocks formed mainly from living and dead tree roots and decaying debris maintained a relatively steady CO₂ emission rate regardless of the water table position in peat. In nearly vegetation‐free hollows, CO₂ emission rates were progressively smaller as the water table rose towards the peat surface. Methane emissions from the peat surface remained small and were detected only in water‐saturated peat. By applying long‐term peat water table data, annual gas emissions from the peat swamp forest floor were estimated to be 3493±316 g CO₂ m^?2 and less than 1.36±0.57 g CH₄ m^?2. On the basis of the carbon emitted, CO₂ is clearly a more important greenhouse gas than CH₄. CO₂ emissions from peat are the highest during the dry season, when the oxic peat layer is at its thickest because of water table lowering.     

Response to Wiedmann

This commentary is prompted by Thomas Wiedmann's “Defining (Urban) Producer and Consumer Sinks” published in this issue. In his article, Wiedmann presents a new framework for categorizing carbon sinks by borrowing practices from carbon emissions accounting and, essentially, proposing a “carbon sink footprint” model for urban inventories. While this is a valuable new concept, we argue that it is difficult to apply accurately given current knowledge and practices in urban life cycle assessment. Instead, a direct versus embodied classification based on where the sequestration service exists, not where the sink is located, is more useful from the perspective of municipal control and influence over creating and managing carbon sinks. This is ultimately important for the development of urban climate change mitigation measures.