Thermal controls of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and invasive fishes under climate change

We combine large observed data sets and dynamically downscaled climate data to explore historic and future (2050–2069) stream temperature changes over the topographically diverse Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (elevation range = 824–4017 m). We link future stream temperatures with fish growth models to investigate how changing thermal regimes could influence the future distribution and persistence of native Yellowstone cutthroat trout (YCT) and competing invasive species. We find that stream temperatures during the recent decade (2000–2009) surpass the anomalously warm period of the 1930s. Climate simulations indicate air temperatures will warm by 1 °C to >3 °C over the Greater Yellowstone by mid‐21st century, resulting in concomitant increases in 2050–2069 peak stream temperatures and protracted periods of warming from May to September (MJJAS). Projected changes in thermal regimes during the MJJAS growing season modify the trajectories of daily growth rates at all elevations with pronounced growth during early and late summer. For high‐elevation populations, we find considerable increases in fish body mass attributable both to warming of cold‐water temperatures and to extended growing seasons. During peak July to August warming, mid‐21st century temperatures will cause periods of increased thermal stress, rendering some low‐elevation streams less suitable for YCT. The majority (80%) of sites currently inhabited by YCT, however, display minimal loss (<10%) or positive changes in total body mass by midcentury; we attribute this response to the fact that many low‐elevation populations of YCT have already been extirpated by historical changes in land use and invasions of non‐native species. Our results further suggest that benefits to YCT populations due to warmer stream temperatures at currently cold sites could be offset by the interspecific effects of corresponding growth of sympatric, non‐native species, underscoring the importance of developing climate adaptation strategies that reduce limiting factors such as non‐native species and habitat degradation.     

The importance of marginal population hotspots of cold‐adapted species for research on climate change and conservation

Areas hosting hotspots of low‐latitude marginal populations of cold‐adapted plant species could be key areas for understanding geographical attributes that result in refugia during climatic shifts as well as the conservation of genetic diversity in the face of climate change. Low‐latitude populations of cold‐adapted plants are important because they may harbour the combination of alleles that foster persistence in a warmer climate. Consequently, identification of areas where arctic‐alpine, circumpolar and circumboreal species reach the low‐latitude ends of their distribution will present a unique opportunity to uncover processes that shaped current biogeographical patterns, as well as prepare for future scenarios. Here, we identify 35 main marginal population hotspots (19 and 16 areas in North America and Europe, respectively) of 183 plant taxa. These hotspots represent areas where southern marginal populations of cold‐adapted species co‐occur. The identification of hotspots was based on geographic overlap of southernmost locations of the target species, in a 50 × 50 km grid. With a threshold of two species in a single grid cell or in two contiguous cells, the analysis revealed that hotspots are in most cases located in the southern portion of major mountain chains. However, hotspots also occur in lowland areas at high latitudes (Fennoscandia, Alaska, Hudson Bay) which do not necessarily correspond to known cold‐ or warm‐stage refugia (e.g. Alps). Rockies and Sierra Nevada both in California and Spain, Apennines, and the southern Scandes, maintain their hotspot status even with more stringent cut‐off thresholds (>3 and >5 species per cell group). From a conservation point of view, our analysis reveals that only a small portion of the hotspots are currently included within protected areas. We discuss the importance of marginal population hotspots to future research on climate change and, finally, outline how conservation strategies can capitalize on the knowledge gained from studying climate change effects on cold‐adapted plants.     

Population status and ecology of the Salmo trutta complex in an Italian river basin under multiple anthropogenic pressures

Salmonids inhabiting Mediterranean rivers are of particular concern for biodiversity conservation, as they are threatened by various stressors, including habitat alterations, overfishing, climate change, and introgressive hybridization with alien species. In the Tiber River basin (Central Italy), genetic introgression phenomena of the native Salmo cettii with the non‐native Salmo trutta hinder the separate analysis of the two species, which are both included in the S. trutta complex. Little is known about the factors currently limiting the trout populations in this area, particularly with respect to climate change. With the intention of filling this gap, the aims of the current study were to (a) quantify changes in the climate and (b) analyze the distribution, status, and ecology of trout populations, in the context of changing abiotic conditions over the last decades. Fish stock assessments were carried out by electrofishing during three census periods (1998–2004, 2005–2011, and 2012–2018) at 129 sites. The trend over time of meteorological parameters provided evidence for increased air temperature and decreased rainfall. Multivariate analysis of trout densities and environmental data highlighted the close direct correlation of trout abundance with water quality, altitude, and current speed. Climate‐induced effects observed over time in the sites where trout were sampled have not yet led to local extinctions or distribution shifts, indicating a marked resilience of trout, probably due to the buffering effect of intrinsic population dynamics. Decreasing body conditions over time and unbalanced age structures support the hypothesis that variations in hydraulic regime and water temperature could overcome these compensatory effects, which may lead to a severe decline in trout populations in the near future. In a climate change context, habitat availability plays a key role in the distribution of cold‐water species, which often do not have the possibility to move upstream to reach their thermal optimum because of water scarcity in the upper river stretches.     

Forecasting the effects of global change scenarios on bioaccumulation patterns in great lakes species

Climate change will have substantial impacts on biodiversity, particularly for aquatic species. Warming temperatures and changing weather patterns will also remobilize and modify chemical partitioning. Holding millions of cubic yards of sediments contaminated with persistent legacy chemicals such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dioxins, the Laurentian Great Lakes are a laboratory for observing interactions between biological and chemical responses to climate change. They provide a wide range of habitat to a variety of species, from littoral forage fish to deep‐water predators. In this paper, we couple bioenergetic and bioaccumulation models to investigate the biological and chemical effects of climate change in the Great Lakes. We consider three species: round goby, a warm‐water invasive forage fish; mottled sculpin, a cool‐water native forage fish; and lake trout, a cold‐water native predator. Using our coupled models, we calculate the accumulation of a representative persistent chemical, PCB‐77, under four climate scenarios for Lake Erie and Lake Superior. Predator–prey (lake trout–round goby) interactions and food availability (high–low) are incorporated into our simulations. For cool‐ to cold‐water species (sculpin, lake trout) we find that warm temperatures limit growth. For warm‐water species (round goby) cold temperatures limit growth. The impact of climate warming on growth depends on the winter lows as well as the summer highs of the scenario, in combination with the species' critical upper and lower thermal limits. We find conditions for high growth and consumption rates generally lead to high bioaccumulation. However, this can be confounded by predator–prey dynamics, as mismatches in the temperature preferences of predator and prey can lead to mismatches in relative growth and uptake rates. As predator–prey dynamics are expected to undergo substantial shifts with changing climate, these relative thermal sensitivities will be key in determining the implications of climate change for bioaccumulation, particularly in top predator species.     

Persistence at distributional edges: Columbia spotted frog habitat in the arid Great Basin,USA

A common challenge in the conservation of broadly distributed, yet imperiled species is understanding which factors facilitate persistence at distributional edges, locations where populations are often vulnerable to extirpation due to changes in climate, land use, or distributions of other species. For Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) in the Great Basin (USA), a genetically distinct population segment of conservation concern, we approached this problem by examining (1) landscape‐scale habitat availability and distribution, (2) water body‐scale habitat associations, and (3) resource management‐identified threats to persistence. We found that areas with perennial aquatic habitat and suitable climate are extremely limited in the southern portion of the species’ range. Within these suitable areas, native and non‐native predators (trout and American bullfrogs [Lithobates catesbeianus]) are widespread and may further limit habitat availability in upper‐ and lower‐elevation areas, respectively. At the water body scale, spotted frog occupancy was associated with deeper sites containing abundant emergent vegetation and nontrout fish species. Streams with American beaver (Castor canadensis) frequently had these structural characteristics and were significantly more likely to be occupied than ponds, lakes, streams without beaver, or streams with inactive beaver ponds, highlighting the importance of active manipulation of stream environments by beaver. Native and non‐native trout reduced the likelihood of spotted frog occupancy, especially where emergent vegetation cover was sparse. Intensive livestock grazing, low aquatic connectivity, and ephemeral hydroperiods were also negatively associated with spotted frog occupancy. We conclude that persistence of this species at the arid end of its range has been largely facilitated by habitat stability (i.e., permanent hydroperiod), connectivity, predator‐free refugia, and a commensalistic interaction with an ecosystem engineer. Beaver‐induced changes to habitat quality, stability, and connectivity may increase spotted frog population resistance and resilience to seasonal drought, grazing, non‐native predators, and climate change, factors which threaten local or regional persistence.     

Fragmentation and thermal risks from climate change interact to affect persistence of native trout in the Colorado River basin

Impending changes in climate will interact with other stressors to threaten aquatic ecosystems and their biota. Native Colorado River cutthroat trout (CRCT; Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus) are now relegated to 309 isolated high‐elevation (>1700 m) headwater stream fragments in the Upper Colorado River Basin, owing to past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss. Predicted changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and resulting changes in stochastic physical disturbances (i.e., wildfire, debris flow, and channel drying and freezing) could further threaten the remaining CRCT populations. We developed an empirical model to predict stream temperatures at the fragment scale from downscaled climate projections along with geomorphic and landscape variables. We coupled these spatially explicit predictions of stream temperature with a Bayesian Network (BN) model that integrates stochastic risks from fragmentation to project persistence of CRCT populations across the upper Colorado River basin to 2040 and 2080. Overall, none of the populations are at risk from acute mortality resulting from high temperatures during the warmest summer period. In contrast, only 37% of populations have a ≥90% chance of persistence for 70 years (similar to the typical benchmark for conservation), primarily owing to fragmentation. Populations in short stream fragments <7 km long, and those at the lowest elevations, are at the highest risk of extirpation. Therefore, interactions of stochastic disturbances with fragmentation are projected to be greater threats than warming for CRCT populations. The reason for this paradox is that past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss have restricted most CRCT populations to high‐elevation stream fragments that are buffered from the potential consequences of warming, but at risk of extirpation from stochastic events. The greatest conservation need is for management to increase fragment lengths to forestall these risks.     

Legacy introductions and climatic variation explain spatiotemporal patterns of invasive hybridization in a native trout

Hybridization between invasive and native species, a significant threat to worldwide biodiversity, is predicted to increase due to climate‐induced expansions of invasive species. Long‐term research and monitoring are crucial for understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes that modulate the effects of invasive species. Using a large, multidecade genetics dataset (N = 582 sites, 12,878 individuals) with high‐resolution climate predictions and extensive stocking records, we evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of hybridization between native cutthroat trout and invasive rainbow trout, the world's most widely introduced invasive fish, across the Northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. Historical effects of stocking and contemporary patterns of climatic variation were strongly related to the spread of hybridization across space and time. The probability of occurrence, extent of, and temporal changes in hybridization increased at sites in close proximity to historical stocking locations with greater rainbow trout propagule pressure, warmer water temperatures, and lower spring precipitation. Although locations with warmer water temperatures were more prone to hybridization, cold sites were not protected from invasion; 58% of hybridized sites had cold mean summer water temperatures (<11°C). Despite cessation of stocking over 40 years ago, hybridization increased over time at half (50%) of the locations with long‐term data, the vast majority of which (74%) were initially nonhybridized, emphasizing the chronic, negative impacts of human‐mediated hybridization. These results show that effects of climate change on biodiversity must be analyzed in the context of historical human impacts that set ecological and evolutionary trajectories.     

Non‐native trout limit native brook trout access to space and thermal refugia in a restored large‐river system

We used direct observation via snorkeling surveys to quantify microhabitat use by native brook (Salvelinus fontinalis) and non‐native brown (Salmo trutta) and rainbow (Onchorynchus mykiss) trout occupying natural and restored pool habitats within a large, high‐elevation Appalachian river, United States. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) and subsequent two‐way analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicated a significant difference in microhabitat use by brook and non‐native trout within restored pools. We also detected a significant difference in microhabitat use by brook trout occupying pools in allopatry versus those occupying pools in sympatry with non‐native trout—a pattern that appears to be modulated by size. Smaller brook trout often occupied pools in the absence of non‐native species, where they used shallower and faster focal habitats. Larger brook trout occupied pools with, and utilized similar focal habitats (i.e. deeper, slower velocity) as, non‐native trout. Non‐native trout consistently occupied more thermally suitable microhabitats closer to cover as compared to brook trout, including the use of thermal refugia (i.e. ambient–focal temperature >2°C). These results suggest that non‐native trout influence brook trout use of restored habitats by: (1) displacing smaller brook trout from restored pools, and (2) displacing small and large brook trout from optimal microhabitats (cooler, deeper, and lower velocity). Consequently, benefits of habitat restoration in large rivers may only be fully realized by brook trout in the absence of non‐native species. Future research within this and other large river systems should characterize brook trout response to stream restoration following removal of non‐native species.     

Location of demographic sources affects the distributions of a vulnerable native fish in invaded river networks

1. Invasive predators negatively affect native prey to varying degrees across landscapes, and spatial configuration of invader‐free refugia may affect prey distributions across invaded river networks. In New Zealand, introduced trout (Salmo trutta and Oncorhynchus mykiss) create source‐sink dynamics in native Galaxias vulgaris populations, and their co‐occurrence with trout may be enhanced by immigration from trout‐free reaches. 2. We investigated how network configuration of trout‐free demographic sources affected the distribution of G. vulgaris across trout‐invaded riverscapes. Using quantitative biomass surveys and spatially extensive presence–absence surveys, the interaction between habitat variability and location relative to sources in limiting distributions of G. vulgaris in trout‐invaded reaches was assessed. 3. Galaxias vulgaris biomass at invaded sink sites decreased with increasing network distance to the nearest trout barrier. The maximum distance to barriers at which G. vulgaris occurred in the riverscape was limited, so that galaxiids were excluded from small and stable streams far from sources. 4. Large predatory trout (i.e. >150 mm fork length) occurred in high densities at stable sites all year round and were seasonally excluded from sites disturbed by flooding. Large streams probably provide increased refugia for galaxiids to avoid predation from trout, but narrowness and habitat stability may act synergistically to extirpate G. vulgaris from sites that are too far from sources to receive regular immigrants. 5. The interaction between immigration and habitat configuration in mediating effects of trout on G. vulgaris distributions indicates the spatial dependency of predator–prey interactions in river networks. 6. These results indicate creating new invader‐free source habitat should enhance co‐occurrence in nearby invader‐occupied reaches. Moreover, adding source habitat in sink streams far from existing sources, and ensuring barriers prevent future invasion, will also allow native fish dispersal between sources and sinks and will maximise the conservation gains from management across invaded riverscapes.     

Brown trout and food web interactions in a Minnesota stream

1. We examined indirect, community‐level interactions in a stream that contained non‐native brown trout (Salmo trutta Linnaeus), native brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis Mitchill) and native slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus Richardson). Our objectives were to examine benthic invertebrate composition and prey selection of fishes (measured by total invertebrate dry mass, dry mass of individual invertebrate taxa and relative proportion of invertebrate taxa in the benthos and diet) among treatments (no fish, juvenile brook trout alone, juvenile brown trout alone, sculpin with brook trout and sculpin with brown trout). 2. We assigned treatments to 1 m² enclosures/exclosures placed in riffles in Valley Creek, Minnesota, and conducted six experimental trials. We used three designs of fish densities (addition of trout to a constant number of sculpin with unequal numbers of trout and sculpin; addition of trout to a constant number of sculpin with equal numbers of trout and sculpin; and replacement of half the sculpin with an equal number of trout) to investigate the relative strength of interspecific versus intraspecific interactions. 3. Presence of fish (all three species, alone or in combined‐species treatments) was not associated with changes in total dry mass of benthic invertebrates or shifts in relative abundance of benthic invertebrate taxa, regardless of fish density design. 4. Brook trout and sculpin diets did not change when each species was alone compared with treatments of both species together. Likewise, we did not find evidence for shifts in brown trout or sculpin diets when each species was alone or together. 5. We suggest that native brook trout and non‐native brown trout fill similar niches in Valley Creek. We did not find evidence that either species had an effect on stream communities, potentially due to high invertebrate productivity in Valley Creek.     

Predicting fine‐scale distributions of peripheral aquatic species in headwater streams

Headwater species and peripheral populations that occupy habitat at the edge of a species range may hold an increased conservation value to managers due to their potential to maximize intraspecies diversity and species' adaptive capabilities in the context of rapid environmental change. The southern Appalachian Mountains are the southern extent of the geographic range of native Salvelinus fontinalis and naturalized Oncorhynchus mykiss and Salmo trutta in eastern North America. We predicted distributions of these peripheral, headwater wild trout populations at a fine scale to serve as a planning and management tool for resource managers to maximize resistance and resilience of these populations in the face of anthropogenic stressors. We developed correlative logistic regression models to predict occurrence of brook trout, rainbow trout, and brown trout for every interconfluence stream reach in the study area. A stream network was generated to capture a more consistent representation of headwater streams. Each of the final models had four significant metrics in common: stream order, fragmentation, precipitation, and land cover. Strahler stream order was found to be the most influential variable in two of the three final models and the second most influential variable in the other model. Greater than 70% presence accuracy was achieved for all three models. The underrepresentation of headwater streams in commonly used hydrography datasets is an important consideration that warrants close examination when forecasting headwater species distributions and range estimates. Additionally, it appears that a relative watershed position metric (e.g., stream order) is an important surrogate variable (even when elevation is included) for biotic interactions across the landscape in areas where headwater species distributions are influenced by topographical gradients.     

Mechanisms of thermal adaptation and evolutionary potential of conspecific populations to changing environments

Heterogeneous and ever‐changing thermal environments drive the evolution of populations and species, especially when extreme conditions increase selection pressure for traits influencing fitness. However, projections of biological diversity under scenarios of climate change rarely consider evolutionary adaptive potential of natural species. In this study, we tested for mechanistic evidence of evolutionary thermal adaptation among ecologically divergent redband trout populations (Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri) in cardiorespiratory function, cellular response and genomic variation. In a common garden environment, fish from an extreme desert climate had significantly higher critical thermal maximum (p < .05) and broader optimum thermal window for aerobic scope (>3°C) than fish from cooler montane climate. In addition, the desert population had the highest maximum heart rate during warming (20% greater than montane populations), indicating improved capacity to deliver oxygen to internal tissues. In response to acute heat stress, distinct sets of cardiac genes were induced among ecotypes, which helps to explain the differences in cardiorespiratory function. Candidate genomic markers and genes underlying these physiological adaptations were also pinpointed, such as genes involved in stress response and metabolic activity (hsp40, ldh‐b and camkk2). These markers were developed into a multivariate model that not only accurately predicted critical thermal maxima, but also evolutionary limit of thermal adaptation in these specific redband trout populations relative to the expected limit for the species. This study demonstrates mechanisms and limitations of an aquatic species to evolve under changing environments that can be incorporated into advanced models to predict ecological consequences of climate change for natural organisms.     

Effects of species invasion on population dynamics,vital rates and life histories of the native species

Invasions occurring in natural environments provide the opportunity to study how vital rates change and life histories evolve in the presence of a competing species. In this work, we estimate differences in reproductive traits, individual growth trajectories, survival, life histories and population dynamics between a native species living in allopatry and in sympatry with an invasive species of the same taxonomic Family. We used as a model system marble trout Salmo marmoratus (native species) and rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss (non-native) living in the Idrijca River (Slovenia). An impassable waterfall separates the stream into two sectors only a few 100 meters apart: a downstream sector in which marble trout live in sympatry with rainbow trout and an upstream sector in which marble trout live in allopatry. We used an overarching modelling approach that uses tag-recapture and genetic data (>2,500 unique marble and rainbow trout were sampled and genotyped) to reconstruct pedigrees, test for synchrony of population dynamics and model survival and growth, while accounting for individual heterogeneity. The population dynamics of the two marble trout populations and of rainbow trout were synchronous. We found higher prevalence of younger parents, higher mortality and lower population density in marble trout living in sympatry with rainbow trout than in marble trout living in allopatry. There were no differences in the average individual growth trajectories between the two marble trout populations. Faster life histories of marble trout living in sympatry with rainbow trout are consistent with predictions of life history theory.     

Co‐varying impacts of land use and non‐native brown trout on fish communities in small streams

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Context‐specific influence of water temperature on brook trout growth rates in the field

1. Modelling the effects of climate change on freshwater fishes requires robust field‐based estimates accounting for interactions among multiple factors. 2. We used data from an 8‐year individual‐based study of a wild brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) population to test the influence of water temperature on season‐specific growth in the context of variation in other environmental (i.e. season, stream flow) or biotic factors (local brook trout biomass density and fish age and size) in West Brook, a third‐order stream in western Massachusetts, U.S.A. 3. Changes in ambient temperature influenced individual growth rates. In general, higher temperatures were associated with higher growth rates in winter and spring and lower growth rates in summer and autumn. However, the effect of temperature on growth was strongly context‐dependent, differing in both magnitude and direction as a function of season, stream flow and fish biomass density. 4. We found that stream flow and temperature had strong and complex interactive effects on trout growth. At the coldest temperatures (in winter), high stream flows were associated with reduced trout growth rates. During spring and autumn and in typical summers (when water temperatures were close to growth optima), higher flows were associated with increased growth rates. In addition, the effect of flow at a given temperature (the flow‐temperature interaction) differed among seasons. 5. Trout density negatively affected growth rate and had strong interactions with temperature in two of four seasons (i.e. spring and summer) with greater negative effects at high temperatures. 6. Our study provided robust, integrative field‐based estimates of the effects of temperature on growth rates for a species which serves as a model organism for cold‐water adapted ectotherms facing the consequences of environmental change. Results of the study strongly suggest that failure to derive season‐specific estimates, or to explicitly consider interactions with flow regime and fish density, will seriously compromise our ability to predict the effects of climate change on stream fish growth rates. Further, the concordance we found between empirical observations and likely energetic mechanisms suggests that our general results should be relevant at broader spatial and temporal scales.     

Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability,adaptation action benefits,and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection

Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30‐day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species’ distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold‐water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid‐century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation actions. Our study demonstrates that even relatively small differences in the definitions of climate metrics can result in very different projections and reveal high uncertainty in predicted climate change effects.     

Predicting the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of an imperiled freshwater mussel,Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Margaritiferidae), in riverine systems

In the face of global climate change, organisms may respond to temperature increases by shifting their ranges poleward or to higher altitudes. However, the direction of range shifts in riverine systems is less clear. Because rivers are dendritic networks, there is only one dispersal route from any given location to another. Thus, range shifts are only possible if branches are connected by suitable habitat, and stream‐dwelling organisms can disperse through these branches. We used Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Unionoida: Margaritiferidae) as a model species to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity because a majority of contemporary populations are panmictic. We combined ecological niche models (ENMs) with population genetic simulations to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of C. monodonta. The ENMs were constructed using bioclimatic and landscape data to project shifts in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We then used forward‐time simulations to project potential changes in genetic diversity and population connectivity based on these range shifts. ENM results under current conditions indicated long stretches of highly suitable habitat in rivers where C. monodonta persists; populations in the upper Mississippi River remain connected by suitable habitat that does not impede gene flow. Future climate scenarios projected northward and headwater‐ward range contraction and drastic declines in habitat suitability for most extant populations throughout the Mississippi River Basin. Simulations indicated that climate change would greatly reduce genetic diversity and connectivity across populations. Results suggest that a single, large population of C. monodonta will become further fragmented into smaller populations, each of which will be isolated and begin to differentiate genetically. Because C. monodonta is a widely distributed species and purely aquatic, our results suggest that persistence and connectivity of stream‐dwelling organisms will be significantly altered in response to future climate change.     

Re‐building brown trout populations in dredged boreal forest streams: in‐stream restoration combined with stocking of young trout

1. Rivers in boreal forested areas were often dredged to facilitate the transport of timber resulting in channels with simplified bed structure and flow fields and reduced habitat suitability for stream organisms, especially lotic fishes. Currently, many streams are being restored to improve their physical habitat, by replacing boulders and gravel and removing constraining embankments. The most compelling justification behind stream restoration of former floatways has been the enhancement of native fish populations, specifically salmonids. 2. We examined the success of a stream management programme aimed at re‐building diminished brown trout (Salmo trutta) populations by monitoring densities of young‐of‐year and older trout in 18 managed and three reference streams during 2000–2005. Rehabilitation included in‐stream restoration combined with a 5‐year post‐restoration period of stocking young brown trout. Our space‐for‐time substitution design comprised four pre‐management, four under‐management, 10 post‐management and three reference streams. 3. Densities of young‐of‐year brown trout, indicating population establishment, were significantly higher in post‐ compared with pre‐management streams. However, density of young‐of‐year brown trout in post‐management streams was significantly lower compared with near‐pristine reference streams. Furthermore, success of managed brown trout population re‐building varied, indicating stream‐specific responses to management measures. Density of burbot (Lota lota), a native generalist predator, was associated with low recruitment of brown trout. 4. Stream‐specific responses imply that rehabilitation of brown trout populations cannot be precisely predicted thereby limiting application. Our findings support the importance of adaptive stream restoration and management, with focus on identifying factor(s) limiting the establishment of target fish populations.     

Stream channel restoration increases climate resiliency in a thermally vulnerable Appalachian river

We quantified stream temperature response to in‐stream habitat restoration designed to improve thermal suitability and resiliency of a high‐elevation Appalachian stream known to support a temperature‐limited brook trout population. Our specific objectives were to determine if: (1) construction of deep pools created channel unit‐scale thermal refugia and (2) reach scale stream channel reconfiguration reduced peak water temperatures along a longitudinal continuum known to be highly susceptible to summer‐time warming. Contrary to expectations, constructed pools did not significantly decrease channel unit‐scale summer water temperatures relative to paired control sites. This suggests that constructed pools did not successfully intercept a cool groundwater source. However, we did find a significant effect of stream channel restoration on reach‐scale thermal regimes. Both mean and maximum daily stream temperatures experienced significantly reduced warming trends in restored sections relative to control sections. Furthermore, we found that restoration efforts had the greatest effect on stream temperatures downstream of large tributaries. Restoration appears to have significantly altered thermal regimes within upper Shavers Fork, largely in response to changes in channel morphology that facilitated water movement below major cold‐water inputs. Decreased longitudinal warming will likely increase the thermal resiliency of the Shavers Fork main‐stem, sustaining the ability of these key large river habitats to continue supporting critical metapopulation processes (e.g. supplemental foraging and dispersal among tributary populations) in the face of climate change.     

Has past climate change affected cold‐specialized species differentially through space and time?

Quaternary climate change has been strongly linked to distributional shifts and recent species diversification. Montane species, in particular, have experienced enhanced isolation and rapid genetic divergence during glacial fluctuations, and these processes have resulted in a disproportionate number of neo‐endemic species forming in high‐elevation habitats. In temperate montane environments, a general model of alpine population history is well supported, where cold‐specialized species track favourable climate conditions downslope during glacial episodes and upslope during warmer interglacial periods, which leads to a climate‐driven population or species diversification pump. However, it remains unclear how geography mediates distributional changes and whether certain episodes of glacial history have differentially impacted rates of diversification. We address these questions by examining phylogenomic data in a North American clade of flightless, cold‐specialized insects, the ice crawlers (Insecta: Grylloblattodea: Grylloblattidae: Grylloblatta). These low‐vagility organisms have the potential to reveal highly localized refugia and patterns of spatial recolonization, as well as a longer history of in situ diversification. Using continuous phylogeographic analysis of species groups, we show that all species tend to retreat to nearby low‐elevation habitats across western North America during episodes of glaciation, but species at high latitude exhibit larger distributional shifts. Lineage diversification was examined over the course of the Neogene and Quaternary periods, with statistical analysis supporting a direct association between climate variation and diversification rate. Major increases in lineage diversification appear to be correlated with warm and dry periods, rather than with extreme glacial events. Finally, we identify substantial cryptic diversity among ice crawlers, leading to high endemism across their range. This diversity provides new insights into highly localized glacial refugia for cold‐specialized species across western North America.