IUCN受威胁物种红色名录进展及应用

IUCN受威胁物种红色名录已经成为世界上最全面的关于全球动物、真菌和植物物种灭绝风险状况的信息来源, 是生物多样性健康的关键指标, 是促进生物多样性保护和决策的有力工具。本文全面介绍IUCN受威胁物种红色名录(简称IUCN红色名录)的发展以及应用状况, 积极推动其在中国的物种评估和广泛应用。总结了IUCN红色名录从依赖于评估专家的主观意志决定物种濒危等级的濒危物种红皮书(Red Data Book)到IUCN受威胁物种等级和标准(3.1版)的客观量化和所有门类使用统一标准的过程。该等级体系可囊括全球所有物种, 其中“受威胁”的3个等级——极危(CR)、濒危(EN)或易危(VU)需使用5个标准进行量化评估, 对评估规范有非常严格的要求。该等级和标准体系不仅适用于全球层面, 同样也适用于地区层面物种评估, 只是在具体物种种群如果和周边其他地区(国家)存在种群交流情况时, 评估结果要进行调整。迄今为止, 全球层面使用该等级体系和标准评估了14万多种(其中在中国有分布的物种10,846种), 100多个国家和地方制定了地区/国家层面的红色名录, 中国红色名录评估了5.5万多种。IUCN红色名录已广泛应用于评估生物多样性变化速度; 为保护规划提供决策信息; 支持履行国际公约、修订国家/地区重点保护物种名录和自然保护地管理等; 指导资源有效合理分配和宣传教育等。广泛应用过程中, 讨论主要集中在获取数据的方法改进上; 另外, 一方面有专家认为标准存在缺陷需要完善, 另一方面有呼吁维持标准的长期相对稳定, 以便进行跨时间、跨区域、跨物种门类的比较。本文提出来了中国红色名录的持续机制和应用建议, 包括建立中国红色名录委员会、建立中国红色名录专业网站、发展评估专家队伍、建立中国红色名录评估更新机制, 以及加强国际协作、促进全球和中国红色名录的应用和发展。     

Least concern to endangered: Applying climate change projections profoundly influences the extinction risk assessment for wild Arabica coffee

Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. Published studies show that climate change is projected to have a substantial negative influence on the current suitable growing areas for indigenous Arabica in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Here we use all available future projections for the species based on multiple general circulation models (GCMs), emission scenarios, and migration scenarios, to predict changes in Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), and population numbers for wild Arabica coffee. Under climate change our results show that population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. EOO and AOO are projected to decline by around 30% in many cases. Furthermore, present‐day models compared to the near future (2038), show a reduction for EOO of over 40% (with a few cases over 50%), although EOO should be treated with caution due to its sensitivity to outlying occurrences. When applying these metrics to extinction risk, we show that the determination of generation length is critical. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (not threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteria.     

The Sampled Red List Index for Plants,phase II: ground-truthing specimen-based conservation assessments

The IUCN Sampled Red List Index (SRLI) is a policy response by biodiversity scientists to the need to estimate trends in extinction risk of the world''s diminishing biological diversity. Assessments of plant species for the SRLI project rely predominantly on herbarium specimen data from natural history collections, in the overwhelming absence of accurate population data or detailed distribution maps for the vast majority of plant species. This creates difficulties in re-assessing these species so as to measure genuine changes in conservation status, which must be observed under the same Red List criteria in order to be distinguished from an increase in the knowledge available for that species, and thus re-calculate the SRLI. However, the same specimen data identify precise localities where threatened species have previously been collected and can be used to model species ranges and to target fieldwork in order to test specimen-based range estimates and collect population data for SRLI plant species. Here, we outline a strategy for prioritizing fieldwork efforts in order to apply a wider range of IUCN Red List criteria to assessments of plant species, or any taxa with detailed locality or natural history specimen data, to produce a more robust estimation of the SRLI.     

生态系统红色名录——一种新的生物多样性保护工具

生物多样性为人类提供了生存所必需的一系列生态系统服务和功能。然而,由于人为活动的加剧,生物多样性不断丧失。传统的生物多样性保护主要关注物种多样性,存在着对生物多样性的代表性不足,不能及时反应生态系统多样性的变化等缺点。近年来,生态系统层次上的多样性保护成为研究热点,一些国家和组织相继开展了大尺度的生态系统评估工作。文章回顾了已有的生态系统评估方案,发现当前生态系统评估多采用IUCN物种红色名录的分级标准体系,主要评估生态系统的濒危程度,评估标准主要是分布范围和功能的变化,不同评估方案采用的指标和阈值有差异,需要建立统一的生态系统分类体系和评价方案。同时,结合国内生态系统评价的现状,提出了在我国开展生态系统红色名录研究的若干可行建议。     

Where are threatened ferns found? Global conservation priorities for pteridophytes

Recent efforts to improve the representation of plant species included on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species through the IUCN Sampled Red List Index (SRLI) for Plants have led to the assessment of almost 1000 additional species of pteridophytes and lycophytes under IUCN Red List criteria. Species were selected at random from all lineages of pteridophytes and lycophytes and are taxonomically as well as ecologically representative of pteridophyte and lycophyte diversity. 16% of pteridophyte and lycophyte species are globally threatened with extinction and 22% are of elevated conservation concern (threatened or Near Threatened); of species of pteridophytes and lycophytes previously included on the Red List, 54% were considered threatened. Over half of pteridophyte and lycophyte species assessed for the SRLI use estimates of range size; therefore the method used to measure range may affect the Red List category assigned. We evaluated this using two alternative metrics for estimating range, species distribution modelling (SDM) and ecologically suitable habitat (ESH), for 227 species endemic to the Neotropical biogeographic realm. Differences between range estimates were small when ranges were small but increased with increasing range size. For 58 (25.6%) species alternative modelling techniques result in the species meeting the threshold for a different IUCN Red List category from using extent of occurrence. Modelling threatened species distributions also highlights priority areas for conservation in tropical and subtropical montane forests that are the most species-rich habitat for small-range pteridophyte and lycophyte species, but which are now increasingly subject to rapid conversion to agriculture.     

Voluntary recording scheme reveals ongoing decline in the United Kingdom hazel dormouse Muscardinus avellanarius population

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Potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the Red List status of the Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa

Using spatial predictions of future threats to biodiversity, we assessed for the first time the relative potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the threat status of plant species. We thus estimated how many taxa could be affected by future threats that are usually not included in current IUCN Red List assessments. Here, we computed the Red List status including future threats of 227 Proteaceae taxa endemic to the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa, and compared this with their Red List status excluding future threats. We developed eight different land use and climate change scenarios for the year 2020, providing a range of best‐ to worst‐case scenarios. Four scenarios include only the effects of future land use change, while the other four also include the impacts of projected anthropogenic climate change (HadCM2 IS92a GGa), using niche‐based models. Up to a third of the 227 Proteaceae taxa are uplisted (become more threatened) by up to three threat categories if future threats as predicted for 2020 are included, and the proportion of threatened Proteaceae taxa rises on average by 9% (range 2–16%), depending on the scenario. With increasing severity of the scenarios, the proportion of Critically Endangered taxa increases from about 1% to 7% and almost 2% of the 227 Proteaceae taxa become Extinct because of climate change. Overall, climate change has the most severe effects on the Proteaceae, but land use change also severely affects some taxa. Most of the threatened taxa occur in low‐lying coastal areas, but the proportion of threatened taxa changes considerably in inland mountain areas if future threats are included. Our approach gives important insights into how, where and when future threats could affect species persistence and can in a sense be seen as a test of the value of planned interventions for conservation.     

关于IUCN红色名录类型和标准的应用

１９９４年底,ＩＵＣＮ（世界保护联盟）正式公布了“红色名录类型”,对物种受威胁的情况作了比较客观的分类,提出了许多具体的数量标准以便进行分析判断。本文概略介绍该分类系统及其划分标准的实际应用,供开展物种受威胁的评估工作参考     

A practical guide to the application of the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria

The newly developed IUCN Red List of Ecosystems is part of a growing toolbox for assessing risks to biodiversity, which addresses ecosystems and their functioning. The Red List of Ecosystems standard allows systematic assessment of all freshwater, marine, terrestrial and subterranean ecosystem types in terms of their global risk of collapse. In addition, the Red List of Ecosystems categories and criteria provide a technical base for assessments of ecosystem status at the regional, national, or subnational level. While the Red List of Ecosystems criteria were designed to be widely applicable by scientists and practitioners, guidelines are needed to ensure they are implemented in a standardized manner to reduce epistemic uncertainties and allow robust comparisons among ecosystems and over time. We review the intended application of the Red List of Ecosystems assessment process, summarize ‘best-practice’ methods for ecosystem assessments and outline approaches to ensure operational rigour of assessments. The Red List of Ecosystems will inform priority setting for ecosystem types worldwide, and strengthen capacity to report on progress towards the Aichi Targets of the Convention on Biological Diversity. When integrated with other IUCN knowledge products, such as the World Database of Protected Areas/Protected Planet, Key Biodiversity Areas and the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the Red List of Ecosystems will contribute to providing the most complete global measure of the status of biodiversity yet achieved.     

Climate change‐induced migration patterns and extinction risks of Theaceae species in China

Theaceae, an economically important angiosperm family, is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical forests in Asia. In China, Theaceae has particularly high abundances and endemism, comprising ~75% of the total genera and ~46% of the total species worldwide. Therefore, predicting the response of Theaceae species to climate change is vital. In this study, we collected distribution data for 200 wild Theaceae species in China, and predicted their distribution patterns under current and future climactic conditions by species distribution modeling (SDM). We revealed that Theaceae species richness is highest in southeastern China and on Hainan Island, reaching its highest value (137 species) in Fujian Province. According to the IUCN Red List criteria for assessing species threat levels under two dispersal assumptions (no dispersal and full dispersal), we evaluated the conservation status of all Theaceae species by calculating loss of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We predicted that nine additional species will become threatened due to climate change in the future; one species will be classified as critically endangered (CR), two as endangered (EN), and six as vulnerable (VU). Given their extinction risks associated with climate change, we recommended that these species be added to the Red List. Our investigation of migration patterns revealed regional differences in the number of emigrant, immigrant, and persistent species, indicating the need for targeted conservation strategies. Regions containing numerous emigrants are concentrated in Northern Taiwan and coastal regions of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, while regions containing numerous immigrants include central Sichuan Province, the southeastern Tibet Autonomous Region, southwest Yunnan Province, northwest Sichuan Province, and the junction of Guangxi and Hunan provinces. Lastly, regions containing persistent species are widely distributed in southern China. Importantly, regions with high species turnover are located on the northern border of the entire Theaceae species distribution ranges owing to upwards migration; these regions are considered most sensitive to climate change and conservation planning should therefore be prioritized here. This study will contribute valuable information for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on Theaceae species, which will ultimately improve biodiversity conservation efficiency.     

Response to De Silva et al. (2007): Endemic freshwater finfish of Asia: distribution and conservation status

De Silva et al . (2007) present an overview of the distribution and conservation status of the endemic freshwater fish of Asia. Within that review they use data from the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species™ (2006) to conduct an analysis of the conservation status of those endemic fish species. Their analysis is incorrect and provides a very misleading impression of the level of threat to Asian freshwater fish and to freshwater fish at the global scale. The errors stem from a misinterpretation of the data presented on the IUCN Red List. The sources of errors are discussed below and the opportunity is taken to clarify what the information on the IUCN Red List represents.     

Insular bats and research effort: a review of global patterns and priorities

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Assessing the Threatened Status of Bumble Bee Species (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in Hungary,Central Europe

Decline in the populations of bumble bees and other pollinators stress the need for more knowledge about their conservation status. Only one of the 25 bumble bee species present in Hungary is included in the Hungarian Red List. We estimated the endangerment of the Hungarian bumble bee (Bombus Latr.) species using the available occurrence data from the last 50 years of the 20th century. Four of the 25 species were data deficient or extinct from Hungary. About 60% of species were considered rare or moderately rare. Changes in distribution and occurrence frequency indicated that 10 of the 21 native species showed a declining trend, while only three species increased in frequency of occurrence. According to the IUCN Red List categories, seven species (33% of the native fauna) should be labelled as critically endangered (CR) and 3 (14%) as endangered (EN). Our results stress an urgent need of protection plans for bumble bees in Hungary, and further underlines the validity of concern over bumble bees all over Europe.     

Redlistr: tools for the IUCN Red Lists of ecosystems and threatened species in R

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of ecosystems and Red List of threatened species are global standards for assessing risks of ecosystem collapse and species extinction. However, misconceptions of the Red List assessment process, along with its technically demanding nature, can result in the misapplication of their criteria, leading to inconsistent and potentially unreliable assessments. To address this problem, we developed redlistr, an R package aiding in the production of consistent species and ecosystem Red List assessments. Redlistr's features include methods to calculate 1) area from spatial data, 2) range size metrics, 3) rates of change of distributions or populations, and 4) distribution or population at another time from these rates. A key feature of the package is the systematic approach used to eliminate geometric uncertainty when estimating area of occupancy. Here, we develop two case studies to demonstrate the functionalities of redlistr with typical workflows for both species and ecosystems. Redlistr was developed to be accessible to users with a broad range of experience in programming for spatial and temporal data analysis, and sufficiently flexible to allow users to parameterise functions and select equations to fit their purposes. The package specifically aims to assist researchers and conservation practitioners to conduct robust and transparent risk assessments of ecosystems and species under the IUCN Red List criteria but is also useful for other studies requiring analyses of range size, area change and calculations of rates of change.     

New distributional records and conservation implications for the threatened Sumatra endemic Nepenthes lavicola Wistuba & Rischer (Nepenthaceae)

Nepenthes lavicola Wistuba & Rischer (Nepenthaceae) is a pitcher plant endemic to the northern tip of Sumatra Island, Indonesia. Due to its narrow geographic distribution and threats from a volcanic eruption and illegal harvesting by pitcher plant hunters, N. lavicola was assessed as Critically Endangered (CR) under criteria B1 + 2c of the IUCN Red List in 2000. Here, we report two new additional locations of N. lavicola in Aceh Tengah Regency, along with the population data and habitat characteristics of the species in each location. Based on our findings, we propose Endangered (EN) B1ab(iii) + 2ab(iii),C2a(i) as the new conservation status of N. lavicola. The new proposed status has a lower category of threat than the current status of the species. Nevertheless, under the new category, N. lavicola is still considered to be facing a very high risk of extinction in the wild. Comprehensive and immediate conservation actions are required to halt the species from extinction.     

Trends in the captive breeding of threatened and endangered birds in British zoos, 1988–1997

The aim of this study was to assess trends in captive breeding of threatened and endangered bird species in British zoos. The measures we recorded were: 1) the total number of species held, 2) the percentage of species held that are listed in the IUCN Red List, 3) the percentage of endangered species breeding, and 4) the number of species in managed breeding programs. These data were gathered from the bird inventories of 10 representative British zoos for the years 1988 and 1997. The data for measures 1–3 were compared between the 2 years using a Wilcoxon matched‐pairs test. We found that the zoos maintained the same number of species (W=10.5; n=10; P=0.093; median=87.5 and 78 for 1988 and 1997, respectively). However, there was a significant increase in the number of birds held that fit each of the IUCN's conservation categories (Endangered: W=43.0; n=10; P<0.05, median=1.48 and 6.64 for 1988 and 1997, respectively; Vulnerable: W=53.0; n=10; P<0.05, median=3.33 and 10.05 for 1988 and 1997, respectively; and Rare: W=55.0; n=10; P<0.01, median=0.00 and 8.33 for 1988 and 1997, respectively). Overall, the percentage of threatened species kept in zoos increased from a median of 4.81 in 1988 to 25.02 in 1997. During this period there was an increase in the number of species in each category of the IUCN Red List. No difference was found in the number of threatened species breeding between 1988 and 1997. Zoo Biol 23:85–89, 2004. © 2004 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Integrating spatially explicit habitat projections into extinction risk assessments: a reassessment of Amazonian avifauna incorporating projected deforestation

Aim We aimed to complete the first systematic assessment of extinction risk based on projected population declines derived from spatially explicit habitat projections for any taxonomic group at a regional scale, to use the outputs to ascertain the efficacy of an existing protected area network in covering species of conservation concern, and identify gaps therein. Location This study focused on Amazonia; an area of exceptional biodiversity, currently experiencing the highest absolute rate of forest loss globally but where the proportion of species assessed as ‘threatened’ on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List in the region is below global averages. Methods For all forest‐dependent Amazonian bird species (814), we revised extinction risk estimates by combining data from a spatially explicit deforestation model with generation length estimates. By overlaying distribution maps for these revised threatened species, we identified crisis areas (areas of projected deforestation supporting the highest numbers of threatened species), refugia (areas projected to retain forest supporting the highest numbers of threatened species) and areas of high irreplaceability: short‐ and long‐term priorities for new protected areas (PAs). Results The number of species qualifying as threatened rose substantially from 24 (3%) to 64–92 (8–11%). Areas of particular concern are the crisis and highly irreplaceable areas within the ‘arc of deforestation’ in the southern Brazilian Amazon states of Rondônia, Mato Grosso and Pará. Main conclusions Through a novel application of the IUCN Red List criteria, we present a spatially accurate rendering of the extinction risks of Amazonian birds. Important areas in the Amazon are not secure. We identify priorities for expansion of the PAs network and key locations where protection should be enforced. We recommend a collaborative approach employing our methods to repeat this process for other taxonomic groups.     

The conservation status and population decline of the African penguin deconstructed in space and time

Understanding changes in abundance is crucial for conservation, but population growth rates often vary over space and time. We use 40 years of count data (1979–2019) and Bayesian state‐space models to assess the African penguin Spheniscus demersus population under IUCN Red List Criterion A. We deconstruct the overall decline in time and space to identify where urgent conservation action is needed. The global African penguin population met the threshold for Endangered with a high probability (97%), having declined by almost 65% since 1989. An historical low of ~17,700 pairs bred in 2019. Annual changes were faster in the South African population (?4.2%, highest posterior density interval, HPDI: ?7.8 to ?0.6%) than the Namibian one (?0.3%, HPDI: ?3.3 to +2.6%), and since 1999 were almost ?10% at South African colonies north of Cape Town. Over the 40‐year period, the Eastern Cape colonies went from holding ~25% of the total penguin population to ~40% as numbers decreased more rapidly elsewhere. These changes coincided with an altered abundance and availability of the main prey of African penguins. Our results underline the dynamic nature of population declines in space as well as time and highlight which penguin colonies require urgent conservation attention.     

A new method to estimate areas of occupancy using herbarium data

The World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is an important instrument to evaluate the conservation status of living organisms. However, Red List assessors have been limited by the lack of reliable methods to calculate the area of occupancy (AOO) of species, which is an important parameter for red list assessments. Here we present a new practical method to estimate AOO based on herbarium specimen data: the Cartographic method by Conglomerates (CMC). This method, which combines elements from the Areographic and Cartographic methods previously used to calculate AOO, was tested with ten cactus species from the Chihuahuan Desert Region. The results derived from this novel procedure produced in average AOO calculations 3.5 and 5.5 smaller than the Areographic and Cartographic methods, respectively. The CMC takes into account the existence of disjunctions in the distribution range of the species, producing comparatively more accurate AOO estimations. Another advantage of the CMC is that it generates results more harmonic with the current Red List criteria. In contrast, the overestimated results of the Areographic and Cartographic methods tend to artificially categorize the species, even extremely narrow endemics, in lower endangerment status.