On the global limits of bioenergy and land use for climate change mitigation

Across energy, agricultural and forestry landscapes, the production of biomass for energy has emerged as a controversial driver of land‐use change. We present a novel, simple methodology, to probe the potential global sustainability limits of bioenergy over time for energy provision and climate change mitigation using a complex‐systems approach for assessing land‐use dynamics. Primary biomass that could provide between 70 EJ year^?1 and 360 EJ year^?1, globally, by 2050 was simulated in the context of different land‐use futures, food diet patterns and climate change mitigation efforts. Our simulations also show ranges of potential greenhouse gas emissions for agriculture, forestry and other land uses by 2050, including not only above‐ground biomass‐related emissions, but also from changes in soil carbon, from as high as 24 GtCO₂eq year^?1 to as low as minus 21 GtCO₂eq year^?1, which would represent a significant source of negative emissions. Based on the modelling simulations, the discussions offer novel insights about bioenergy as part of a broader integrated system. Whilst there are sustainability limits to the scale of bioenergy provision, they are dynamic over time, being responsive to land management options deployed worldwide.     

Competing uses of biomass for energy and chemicals: implications for long‐term global CO2 mitigation potential

Biomass is considered a low carbon source for various energy or chemical options. This paper assesses it's different possible uses, the competition between these uses, and the implications for long‐term global energy demand and energy system emissions. A scenario analysis is performed using the TIMER energy system model. Under baseline conditions, 170 EJ yr^?1 of secondary bioenergy is consumed in 2100 (approximately 18% of total secondary energy demand), used primarily in the transport, buildings and nonenergy (chemical production) sectors. This leads to a reduction of 9% of CO₂ emissions compared to a counterfactual scenario where no bioenergy is used. Bioenergy can contribute up to 40% reduction in emissions at carbon taxes greater than 500/tC. As higher CO₂ taxes are applied, bioenergy is increasingly diverted towards electricity generation. Results are more sensitive to assumptions about resource availability than technological parameters. To estimate the effectiveness of bioenergy in specific sectors, experiments are performed in which bioenergy is only allowed in one sector at a time. The results show that cross‐sectoral leakage and emissions from biomass conversion limit the total emission reduction possible in each sector. In terms of reducing emissions per unit of bioenergy use, we show that the use of bioelectricity is the most effective, especially when used with carbon capture and storage. However, this technology only penetrates at a high carbon price (>100/tC) and competition with transport fuels may limit its adoption.     

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) offers sustainable bioenergy production and resilience to climate change

Biomass production on low‐grade land is needed to meet future energy demands and minimize resource conflicts. This, however, requires improvements in plant water‐use efficiency (WUE) that are beyond conventional C3 and C4 dedicated bioenergy crops. Here we present the first global‐scale geographic information system (GIS)‐based productivity model of two highly water‐efficient crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) candidates: Agave tequilana and Opuntia ficus‐indica. Features of these plants that translate to WUE advantages over C3 and C4 bioenergy crops include nocturnal stomatal opening, rapid rectifier‐like root hydraulic conductivity responses to fluctuating soil water potential and the capacity to buffer against periods of drought. Yield simulations for the year 2070 were performed under the four representative concentration pathway (RCPs) scenarios presented in the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report. Simulations on low‐grade land suggest that O. ficus‐indica alone has the capacity to meet ‘extreme’ bioenergy demand scenarios (>600 EJ yr^?1) and is highly resilient to climate change (?1%). Agave tequilana is moderately impacted (?11%). These results are significant because bioenergy demand scenarios >600 EJ yr^?1 could be met without significantly increasing conflicts with food production and contributing to deforestation. Both CAM candidates outperformed the C4 bioenergy crop, Panicum virgatum L. (switchgrass) in arid zones in the latitudinal range 30°S–30°N.     

An evaluation of the global potential of bioenergy production on degraded lands

In this article the global potential of energy crop production on degraded lands was estimated using detailed, spatially explicit data about the area, type and extent of degradation derived from the Global Assessment of Land Degradation Dataset, and by combining this dataset with various spatially explicit data sets. Next, an estimate was made of the possible yield of perennial energy crops on the degraded areas as a function of the type and degree of degradation. Lightly degraded areas were not included, as these areas might be suitable for conventional food production. The total global potential energy production on degraded lands was assessed to be slightly above 150 and 190 EJ yr^?1, for grassy and woody energy crops, respectively. Most of this potential, however, is on areas currently classified as forest, cropland or pastoral land, leaving a potential of around 25 and 32 EJ yr^?1 on other land cover categories. Most of the potential energy crop production on degraded land is located in developing regions. China has a total potential of 30 EJ yr^?1, of which 4 EJ yr^?1 from areas classified as other land. Also USA, Brazil, West Africa, East Africa, Russia and India have substantial potentials of 12–18 EJ yr^?1, with up to 30% of the potential from areas classified as other land.     

Trade‐offs between land and water requirements for large‐scale bioenergy production

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the future energy mix as it can substitute fossil fuels and contribute to climate change mitigation. However, large‐scale bioenergy cultivation may put substantial pressure on land and water resources. While irrigated bioenergy production can reduce the pressure on land due to higher yields, associated irrigation water requirements may lead to degradation of freshwater ecosystems and to conflicts with other potential users. In this article, we investigate the trade‐offs between land and water requirements of large‐scale bioenergy production. To this end, we adopt an exogenous demand trajectory for bioenergy from dedicated energy crops, targeted at limiting greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector to 1100 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent until 2095. We then use the spatially explicit global land‐ and water‐use allocation model MAgPIE to project the implications of this bioenergy target for global land and water resources. We find that producing 300 EJ yr^?1 of bioenergy in 2095 from dedicated bioenergy crops is likely to double agricultural water withdrawals if no explicit water protection policies are implemented. Since current human water withdrawals are dominated by agriculture and already lead to ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss, such a doubling will pose a severe threat to freshwater ecosystems. If irrigated bioenergy production is prohibited to prevent negative impacts of bioenergy cultivation on water resources, bioenergy land requirements for meeting a 300 EJ yr^?1 bioenergy target increase substantially (+ 41%) – mainly at the expense of pasture areas and tropical forests. Thus, avoiding negative environmental impacts of large‐scale bioenergy production will require policies that balance associated water and land requirements.     

Energy crops: current status and future prospects

Energy crops currently contribute a relatively small proportion to the total energy produced from biomass each year, but the proportion is set to grow over the next few decades. This paper reviews the current status of energy crops and their conversion technologies, assesses their potential to contribute to global energy demand and climate mitigation over the next few decades, and examines the future prospects. Previous estimates have suggested a technical potential for energy crops of～400 EJ yr^?1 by 2050. In a new analysis based on energy crop areas for each of the IPCC SRES scenarios in 2025 (as projected by the IMAGE 2.2 integrated assessment model), more conservative dry matter and energy yield estimates and an assessment of the impact on non‐CO₂ greenhouse gases were used to estimate the realistically achievable potential for energy crops by 2025 to be between 2 and 22 EJ yr^?1, which will offset～100–2070 Mt CO₂‐eq. yr^?1. These results suggest that additional production of energy crops alone is not sufficient to reduce emissions to meet a 550 μmol mol^?1 atmospheric CO₂ stabilization trajectory, but is sufficient to form an important component in a portfolio of climate mitigation measures, as well as to provide a significant sustainable energy resource to displace fossil fuel resources. Realizing the potential of energy crops will necessitate optimizing the dry matter and energy yield of these crops per area of land through the latest biotechnological routes, with or without the need for genetic modification. In future, the co‐benefits of bioenergy production will need to be optimized and methods will need to be developed to extract and refine high‐value products from the feedstock before it is used for energy production.     

Plant roots and GHG mitigation in native perennial bioenergy cropping systems

Native perennial bioenergy crops can mitigate greenhouse gases (GHG) by displacing fossil fuels with renewable energy and sequestering atmospheric carbon (C) in soil and roots. The relative contribution of root C to net GHG mitigation potential has not been compared in perennial bioenergy crops ranging in species diversity and N fertility. We measured root biomass, C, nitrogen (N), and soil organic carbon (SOC) in the upper 90 cm of soil for five native perennial bioenergy crops managed with and without N fertilizer. Bioenergy crops ranged in species composition and were annually harvested for 6 (one location) and 7 years (three locations) following the seeding year. Total root biomass was 84% greater in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and a four‐species grass polyculture compared to high‐diversity polycultures; the difference was driven by more biomass at shallow soil depth (0–30 cm). Total root C (0–90 cm) ranged from 3.7 Mg C ha^?1 for a 12‐species mixture to 7.6 Mg C ha^?1 for switchgrass. On average, standing root C accounted for 41% of net GHG mitigation potential. After accounting for farm and ethanol production emissions, net GHG mitigation potential from fossil fuel offsets and root C was greatest for switchgrass (?8.4 Mg CO2e ha^?1 yr^?1) and lowest for high‐diversity mixtures (?4.5 Mg CO2e ha^?1 yr^?1). Nitrogen fertilizer did not affect net GHG mitigation potential or the contribution of roots to GHG mitigation for any bioenergy crop. SOC did not change and therefore did not contribute to GHG mitigation potential. However, associations among SOC, root biomass, and root C : N ratio suggest greater long‐term C storage in diverse polycultures vs. switchgrass. Carbon pools in roots have a greater effect on net GHG mitigation than SOC in the short‐term, yet variation in root characteristics may alter patterns in long‐term C storage among bioenergy crops.     

Bioenergy production potential of global biomass plantations under environmental and agricultural constraints

We estimate the global bioenergy potential from dedicated biomass plantations in the 21st century under a range of sustainability requirements to safeguard food production, biodiversity and terrestrial carbon storage. We use a process‐based model of the land biosphere to simulate rainfed and irrigated biomass yields driven by data from different climate models and combine these simulations with a scenario‐based assessment of future land availability for energy crops. The resulting spatial patterns of large‐scale lignocellulosic energy crop cultivation are then investigated with regard to their impacts on land and water resources. Calculated bioenergy potentials are in the lower range of previous assessments but the combination of all biomass sources may still provide between 130 and 270 EJ yr^?1 in 2050, equivalent to 15–25% of the World's future energy demand. Energy crops account for 20–60% of the total potential depending on land availability and share of irrigated area. However, a full exploitation of these potentials will further increase the pressure on natural ecosystems with a doubling of current land use change and irrigation water demand. Despite the consideration of sustainability constraints on future agricultural expansion the large‐scale cultivation of energy crops is a threat to many areas that have already been fragmented and degraded, are rich in biodiversity and provide habitat for many endangered and endemic species.     

Projections of the availability and cost of residues from agriculture and forestry

By‐products of agricultural and forestry processes, known as residues, may act as a primary source of renewable energy. Studies assessing the availability of this resource offer little insight on the drivers and constraints of the available potential as well as the associated costs and how these may vary across scenarios. This study projects long‐term global supply curves of the available potential using consistent scenarios of agriculture and forestry production, livestock production and fuel use from the spatially explicit integrated assessment model IMAGE. In the projections, residue production is related to agricultural and forestry production and intensification, and the limiting effect of ecological and alternative uses of residues are accounted for. Depending on the scenario, theoretical potential is projected to increase from approximately 120 EJ yr^?1 today to 140–170 EJ yr^?1 by 2100, coming mostly from agricultural production. To maintain ecological functions approximately 40% is required to remain in the field, and a further 20–30% is diverted towards alternative uses. Of the remaining potential (approximately 50 EJ yr^?1 in 2100), more than 90% is available at costs <10By‐products of agricultural and forestry processes, known as residues, may act as a primary source of renewable energy. Studies assessing the availability of this resource offer little insight on the drivers and constraints of the available potential as well as the associated costs and how these may vary across scenarios. This study projects long‐term global supply curves of the available potential using consistent scenarios of agriculture and forestry production, livestock production and fuel use from the spatially explicit integrated assessment model IMAGE. In the projections, residue production is related to agricultural and forestry production and intensification, and the limiting effect of ecological and alternative uses of residues are accounted for. Depending on the scenario, theoretical potential is projected to increase from approximately 120 EJ yr^?1 today to 140–170 EJ yr^?1 by 2100, coming mostly from agricultural production. To maintain ecological functions approximately 40% is required to remain in the field, and a further 20–30% is diverted towards alternative uses. Of the remaining potential (approximately 50 EJ yr^?1 in 2100), more than 90% is available at costs <10$₂₀₀₅ GJ^?1. Crop yield improvements increase residue productivity, albeit at a lower rate. The consequent decrease in agricultural land results in a lower requirement of residues for erosion control. The theoretical potential is most sensitive to baseline projections of agriculture and forestry demand; however, this does not necessarily affect the available potential which is relatively constant across scenarios. The most important limiting factors are the alternative uses. Asia and North America account for two‐thirds of the available potential due to the production of crops with high residue yields and socioeconomic conditions which limit alternative uses.     

Using CO2 to enhance carbon capture and biomass applications of freshwater macroalgae

A major limiting factor in the development of algae as a feedstock for the bioenergy industry is the consistent production and supply of biomass. This study is the first to access the suitability of the freshwater macroalgal genus Oedogonium to supply biomass for bioenergy applications. Specifically, we quantified the effect of CO₂ supplementation on the rate of biomass production, carbon capture, and feedstock quality of Oedogonium when cultured in large‐scale outdoor tanks. Oedogonium cultures maintained at a pH of 7.5 through the addition of CO₂ resulted in biomass productivities of 8.33 (±0.51) g DW m^?2 day^?1, which was 2.5 times higher than controls which had an average productivity of 3.37 (±0.75) g DW m^?2 day^?1. Under these productivities, Oedogonium had a carbon content of 41–45% and a higher heating value of 18.5 MJ kg^?1, making it an ideal biomass energy feedstock. The rate of carbon fixation was 1380 g C m^?2 yr^?1 and 1073.1 g C m^?2 yr^?1 for cultures maintained at a pH of 7.5 and 8.5, and 481 g C m^?2 yr^?1 for cultures not supplemented with CO₂. This study highlights the potential of integrating the large‐scale culture of freshwater macroalgae with existing carbon waste streams, for example coal‐fired power stations, both as a tool for carbon sequestration and as an enhanced and sustainable source of bioenergy.     

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land‐use and energy experts, land‐use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life‐cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state‐of‐the‐art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end‐use efficiency, improved land carbon‐stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small‐scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100 EJ: high agreement; 100–300 EJ: medium agreement; above 300 EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245 EJ yr^?1 to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large‐scale deployment (>200 EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2° degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land‐intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.     

Comparing annual and perennial crops for bioenergy production – influence on nitrate leaching and energy balance

Production of energy crops is promoted as a means to mitigate global warming by decreasing dependency on fossil energy. However, agricultural production of bioenergy can have various environmental effects depending on the crop and production system. In a field trial initiated in 2008, nitrate concentration in soil water was measured below winter wheat, grass‐clover and willow during three growing seasons. Crop water balances were modelled to estimate the amount of nitrate leached per hectare. In addition, dry matter yields and nitrogen (N) yields were measured, and N balances and energy balances were calculated. In willow, nitrate concentrations were up to approximately 20 mg l^?1 nitrate‐N during the establishment year, but declined subsequently to <5 mg l^?1 nitrate‐N, resulting in an annual N leaching loss of 18, 3 and 0.3 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 N in the first 3 years after planting. A similar trend was observed in grass‐clover where concentrations stabilized at 2–4 mg l^?1 nitrate‐N from the beginning of the second growing season, corresponding to leaching of approximately 5 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 N. In winter wheat, an annual N leaching loss of 36–68 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 was observed. For comparison, nitrate leaching was also measured in an old willow crop established in 1996 from which N leaching ranged from 6 to 27 kg ha^?1 yr^?1. Dry matter yields ranged between 5.9 and 14.8 Mg yr^?1 with lowest yield in the newly established willow and the highest yield harvested in grass‐clover. Grass‐clover gave the highest net energy yield of 244 GJ ha^?1 yr^?1, whereas old willow, winter wheat and first rotation willow gave net energy yields of 235, 180 and 105 GJ ha^?1 yr^?1. The study showed that perennial crops can provide high energy yields and significantly reduce N losses compared to annual crops.     

Environmental implications of the use of agro‐industrial residues for biorefineries: application of a deterministic model for indirect land‐use changes

Biorefining agro‐industrial biomass residues for bioenergy production represents an opportunity for both sustainable energy supply and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation. Yet, is bioenergy the most sustainable use for these residues? To assess the importance of the alternative use of these residues, a consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) of 32 energy‐focused biorefinery scenarios was performed based on eight selected agro‐industrial residues and four conversion pathways (two involving bioethanol and two biogas). To specifically address indirect land‐use changes (iLUC) induced by the competing feed/food sector, a deterministic iLUC model, addressing global impacts, was developed. A dedicated biochemical model was developed to establish detailed mass, energy, and substance balances for each biomass conversion pathway, as input to the LCA. The results demonstrated that, even for residual biomass, environmental savings from fossil fuel displacement can be completely outbalanced by iLUC, depending on the feed value of the biomass residue. This was the case of industrial residues (e.g. whey and beet molasses) in most of the scenarios assessed. Overall, the GHGs from iLUC impacts were quantified to 4.1 t CO₂‐eq.ha^?1_demanded yr^?1 corresponding to 1.2–1.4 t CO₂‐eq. t^?1 dry biomass diverted from feed to energy market. Only, bioenergy from straw and wild grass was shown to perform better than the alternative use, as no competition with the feed sector was involved. Biogas for heat and power production was the best performing pathway, in a short‐term context. Focusing on transport fuels, bioethanol was generally preferable to biomethane considering conventional biogas upgrading technologies. Based on the results, agro‐industrial residues cannot be considered burden‐free simply because they are a residual biomass and careful accounting of alternative utilization is a prerequisite to assess the sustainability of a given use. In this endeavor, the iLUC factors and biochemical model proposed herein can be used as templates and directly applied to any bioenergy consequential study involving demand for arable land.     

Environmental costs and benefits of growing Miscanthus for bioenergy in the UK

Planting the perennial biomass crop Miscanthus in the UK could offset 2–13 Mt oil eq. yr^?1, contributing up to 10% of current energy use. Policymakers need assurance that upscaling Miscanthus production can be performed sustainably without negatively impacting essential food production or the wider environment. This study reviews a large body of Miscanthus relevant literature into concise summary statements. Perennial Miscanthus has energy output/input ratios 10 times higher (47.3 ± 2.2) than annual crops used for energy (4.7 ± 0.2 to 5.5 ± 0.2), and the total carbon cost of energy production (1.12 g CO₂‐C eq. MJ^?1) is 20–30 times lower than fossil fuels. Planting on former arable land generally increases soil organic carbon (SOC) with Miscanthus sequestering 0.7–2.2 Mg C4‐C ha^?1 yr^?1. Cultivation on grassland can cause a disturbance loss of SOC which is likely to be recovered during the lifetime of the crop and is potentially mitigated by fossil fuel offset. N₂O emissions can be five times lower under unfertilized Miscanthus than annual crops and up to 100 times lower than intensive pasture. Nitrogen fertilizer is generally unnecessary except in low fertility soils. Herbicide is essential during the establishment years after which natural weed suppression by shading is sufficient. Pesticides are unnecessary. Water‐use efficiency is high (e.g. 5.5–9.2 g aerial DM (kg H₂O)^?1, but high biomass productivity means increased water demand compared to cereal crops. The perennial nature and belowground biomass improves soil structure, increases water‐holding capacity (up by 100–150 mm), and reduces run‐off and erosion. Overwinter ripening increases landscape structural resources for wildlife. Reduced management intensity promotes earthworm diversity and abundance although poor litter palatability may reduce individual biomass. Chemical leaching into field boundaries is lower than comparable agriculture, improving soil and water habitat quality.     

Productivity and water use efficiency of Agave americana in the first field trial as bioenergy feedstock on arid lands

Agave species are high‐yielding crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants, some of which are grown commercially and recognized as potential bioenergy species for dry regions of the world. This study is the first field trial of Agave species for bioenergy in the United States, and was established to compare the production of Agave americana with the production of Agave tequilana and Agave fourcroydes, which are produced commercially in Mexico for tequila and fiber. The field trial included four experimental irrigation levels to test the response of biomass production to water inputs. After 3 years, annual production of healthy A. americana plants reached 9.3 Mg dry mass ha^?1 yr^?1 (including pup mass) with 530 mm of annual water inputs, including both rainfall and irrigation. Yields in the most arid conditions tested (300 mm yr^?1 water input) were 2.0–4.0 Mg dry mass ha^?1 yr^?1. Agave tequilana and Agave fourcroydes were severely damaged by cold in the first winter, and produced maximum yields of only 0.04 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 and 0.26 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively. The agave snout weevil (Scyphophorus acupunctatus) emerged as an important challenge for A. americana cropping, killing a greater number of plants in the higher irrigation treatments. Physiological differences in A. americana plants across irrigation treatments were most evident in the warmest season, with gas exchange beginning up to 3 h earlier and water use efficiency declining in treatments with the greatest water input (780 mm yr^?1 water input). Yields were lower than previous projections for Agave species, but results from this study suggest that A. americana has potential as a bioenergy crop and would have substantially reduced irrigation requirements relative to conventional crops in the southwestern USA. Challenges for pest management and harvesting must still be addressed before an efficient production system that uses Agave can be realized.     

Miscanthus biomass productivity within US croplands and its potential impact on soil organic carbon

Interest in bioenergy crops is increasing due to their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. We combined process‐based and geospatial models to estimate the potential biomass productivity of miscanthus and its potential impact on soil carbon stocks in the croplands of the continental United States. The optimum (climatic potential) rainfed productivity for field‐dried miscanthus biomass ranged from 1 to 23 Mg biomass ha^?1 yr^?1, with a spatial average of 13 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 and a coefficient of variation of 30%. This variation resulted primarily from the spatial heterogeneity of effective rainfall, growing degree days, temperature, and solar radiation interception. Cultivating miscanthus would result in a soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration at the rate of 0.16–0.82 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 across the croplands due to cessation of tillage and increased biomass carbon input into the soil system. We identified about 81 million ha of cropland, primarily in the eastern United States, that could sustain economically viable (>10 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) production without supplemental irrigation, of which about 14 million ha would reach optimal miscanthus growth. To meet targets of the US Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 using miscanthus as feedstock, 19 million ha of cropland would be needed (spatial average 13 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) or about 16% less than is currently dedicated to US corn‐based ethanol production.     

Simulating switchgrass biomass production across ecoregions using the DAYCENT model

The production potential of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has not been estimated in a Mediterranean climate on a regional basis and its economic and environmental contribution as a biofuel crop remains unknown. The objectives of the study were to calibrate and validate a biogeochemical model, DAYCENT, and to predict the biomass yield potential of switchgrass across the Central Valley of California. Six common cultivars were calibrated using published data across the US and validated with data generated from four field trials in California (2007–2009). After calibration, the modeled range of yields across the cultivars and various management practices in the US (excluding California) was 2.4–41.2 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1, generally compatible with the observed yield range of 1.3–33.7 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1. Overall, the model was successfully validated in California; the model explained 66–90% of observed yield variation in 2007–2009. The range of modeled yields was 2.0–41.4 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1, which corresponded to the observed range of 1.3–41.1 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1. The response to N fertilizer and harvest frequency on yields were also reasonably validated. The model estimated that Alamo (21–23 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) and Kanlow (22–24 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) had greatest yield potential during the years after establishment. The effects of soil texture on modeled yields tended to be consistent for all cultivars, but there were distinct climatic (e.g., annual mean maximum temperature) controls among the cultivars. Our modeled results suggest that early stand maintenance of irrigated switchgrass is strongly dependent on available soil N; estimated yields increased by 1.6–5.5 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 when residual soil mineral N was sufficient for optimal re‐growth. Therefore, management options of switchgrass for regional biomass production should be ecotype‐specific and ensure available soil N maintenance.     

Agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation potential globally,in Europe and in the UK: what have we learnt in the last 20 years?

Agricultural lands occupy about 40–50% of the Earth's land surface. Agricultural practices can make a significant contribution at low cost to increasing soil carbon sinks, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contributing biomass feedstocks for energy use. Considering all gases, the global technical mitigation potential from agriculture (excluding fossil fuel offsets from biomass) by 2030 is estimated to be ca. 5500–6000 Mt CO₂‐eq. yr^?1. Economic potentials are estimated to be 1500–1600, 2500–2700 and 4000–4300 Mt CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 at carbon prices of up to $US20, 50 and 100 t CO₂‐eq.^?1, respectively. The value of the global agricultural GHG mitigation at the same three carbon prices is $US32 000, 130 000 and 420 000 million yr^?1, respectively. At the European level, early estimates of soil carbon sequestration potential in croplands were ca. 200 Mt CO₂ yr^?1, but this is a technical potential and is for geographical Europe as far east as the Urals. The economic potential is much smaller, with more recent estimates for the EU27 suggesting a maximum potential of ca. 20 Mt CO₂‐eq. yr^?1. The UK is small in global terms, but a large part of its land area (11 Mha) is used for agriculture. Agriculture accounts for about 7% of total UK GHG emissions. The mitigation potential of UK agriculture is estimated to be ca. 1–2 Mt CO₂‐eq. yr^?1, accounting for less than 1% of UK total GHG emissions.     

Comparing predicted yield and yield stability of willow and Miscanthus across Denmark

To achieve the goals of energy security and climate change mitigation in Denmark and the EU, an expansion of national production of bioenergy crops is needed. Temporal and spatial variation of yields of willow and Miscanthus is not known for Denmark because of a limited number of field trial data. The semi‐mechanistic crop model BioCro was used to simulate the production of both short‐rotation coppice (SRC) willow and Miscanthus across Denmark. Predictions were made from high spatial resolution soil data and weather records across this area for 1990–2010. The potential average, rain‐fed mean yield was 12.1 Mg DM ha^?1 yr^?1 for willow and 10.2 Mg DM ha^?1 yr^?1 for Miscanthus. Coefficient of variation as a measure for yield stability was poorest on the sandy soils of northern and western Jutland, and the year‐to‐year variation in yield was greatest on these soils. Willow was predicted to outyield Miscanthus on poor, sandy soils, whereas Miscanthus was higher yielding on clay‐rich soils. The major driver of yield in both crops was variation in soil moisture, with radiation and precipitation exerting less influence. This is the first time these two major feedstocks for northern Europe have been compared within a single modeling framework and providing an important new tool for decision‐making in selection of feedstocks for emerging bioenergy systems.     

Yield potential of Miscanthus energy crops in the Loess Plateau of China

Growing second‐generation energy crops on marginal land is conceptualized as one of the primary means of future bioenergy development. However, the extent to which marginal land can support energy crop production remains unclear. The Loess Plateau of China, one of the most seriously eroded regions of the world, is particularly rich in marginal land. On the basis of the previous field experiment of planting Miscanthus species in Qingyang of the Gansu Province, herein, we estimated the yield potential of Miscanthus lutarioriparius, the species with the highest biomass, across the Loess Plateau. On the basis of the radiation model previously developed from Miscanthus field trials, annual precipitation was introduced as an additional variable for yield estimate in the semiarid and semihumid regions of the Loess Plateau. Of 62 million hectares (Mha) of the Loess Plateau, our model estimated that 48.7 Mha can potentially support Miscanthus growth, with the average yield of 17.8 t ha^?1 yr^?1. After excluding high‐quality cropland and pasture and land suitable for afforestation, a total of 33.3 Mha of presumably marginal land were left available for producing the energy crop at the average yield of 16.8 t ha^?1 yr^?1 and the total annual yield of 0.56 billion tons. The analysis of environmental factors indicated that erosion, aridity, and field steepness were the primary contributors to the poor quality of the marginal land. The change of land uses from traditional agriculture to energy crop production may prevent further erosion and land degradation and consequently establish a sustainable economy for the region.