Climate‐change refugia: shading reef corals by turbidity

Coral reefs have recently experienced an unprecedented decline as the world's oceans continue to warm. Yet global climate models reveal a heterogeneously warming ocean, which has initiated a search for refuges, where corals may survive in the near future. We hypothesized that some turbid nearshore environments may act as climate‐change refuges, shading corals from the harmful interaction between high sea‐surface temperatures and high irradiance. We took a hierarchical Bayesian approach to determine the expected distribution of 12 coral species in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, between the latitudes 37°N and 37°S, under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (W m^?2) by 2100. The turbid nearshore refuges identified in this study were located between latitudes 20–30°N and 15–25°S, where there was a strong coupling between turbidity and tidal fluctuations. Our model predicts that turbidity will mitigate high temperature bleaching for 9% of shallow reef habitat (to 30 m depth) – habitat that was previously considered inhospitable under ocean warming. Our model also predicted that turbidity will protect some coral species more than others from climate‐change‐associated thermal stress. We also identified locations where consistently high turbidity will likely reduce irradiance to <250 μmol m^?2 s^?1, and predict that 16% of reef‐coral habitat ≤30 m will preclude coral growth and reef development. Thus, protecting the turbid nearshore refuges identified in this study, particularly in the northwestern Hawaiian Islands, the northern Philippines, the Ryukyu Islands (Japan), eastern Vietnam, western and eastern Australia, New Caledonia, the northern Red Sea, and the Arabian Gulf, should become part of a judicious global strategy for reef‐coral persistence under climate change.     

Caribbean mesophotic coral ecosystems are unlikely climate change refugia

Deeper coral reefs experience reduced temperatures and light and are often shielded from localized anthropogenic stressors such as pollution and fishing. The deep reef refugia hypothesis posits that light‐dependent stony coral species at deeper depths are buffered from thermal stress and will avoid bleaching‐related mass mortalities caused by increasing sea surface temperatures under climate change. This hypothesis has not been tested because data collection on deeper coral reefs is difficult. Here we show that deeper (mesophotic) reefs, 30–75 m depth, in the Caribbean are not refugia because they have lower bleaching threshold temperatures than shallow reefs. Over two thermal stress events, mesophotic reef bleaching was driven by a bleaching threshold that declines 0.26 °C every +10 m depth. Thus, the main premise of the deep reef refugia hypothesis that cooler environments are protective is incorrect; any increase in temperatures above the local mean warmest conditions can lead to thermal stress and bleaching. Thus, relatively cooler temperatures can no longer be considered a de facto refugium for corals and it is likely that many deeper coral reefs are as vulnerable to climate change as shallow water reefs.     

Slow‐flow habitats as refugia for coastal calcifiers from ocean acidification

The pH of the oceans’ surface water is dropping, termed ocean acidification (OA), and the 0.4 unit reduction in pH by 2100 is projected to negatively impact benthic coastal organisms that produce calcium carbonate “skeletons.” Research has focussed on identifying species that are susceptible to OA, but there is an urgent need to discover refuge habitats that will afford protection to vulnerable species. The susceptibility of calcium carbonate skeletons to dissolution by OA depends on the pH at their surface, and this is controlled by the interaction between seawater velocity and organismal metabolism. This perspective considers how seawater velocity modifies the responses of calcifying organisms (seaweed, shellfish, and tropical corals) to OA through its action on controlling diffusion boundary layer thickness and thereby the pH and calcium carbonate saturation state (Ω) at the organisms’ surface. Evidence is presented to support the idea that slow‐flow habitats, such as wave‐sheltered bays or the within canopies of seaweed/seagrass beds, might provide inexpensive refugia from OA for vulnerable coastal calcifiers.     

Acclimation to ocean acidification during long‐term CO2 exposure in the cold‐water coral Lophelia pertusa

Ocean acidity has increased by 30% since preindustrial times due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ and is projected to rise by another 120% before 2100 if CO₂ emissions continue at current rates. Ocean acidification is expected to have wide‐ranging impacts on marine life, including reduced growth and net erosion of coral reefs. Our present understanding of the impacts of ocean acidification on marine life, however, relies heavily on results from short‐term CO₂ perturbation studies. Here, we present results from the first long‐term CO₂ perturbation study on the dominant reef‐building cold‐water coral Lophelia pertusa and relate them to results from a short‐term study to compare the effect of exposure time on the coral's responses. Short‐term (1 week) high CO₂ exposure resulted in a decline of calcification by 26–29% for a pH decrease of 0.1 units and net dissolution of calcium carbonate. In contrast, L. pertusa was capable to acclimate to acidified conditions in long‐term (6 months) incubations, leading to even slightly enhanced rates of calcification. Net growth is sustained even in waters sub‐saturated with respect to aragonite. Acclimation to seawater acidification did not cause a measurable increase in metabolic rates. This is the first evidence of successful acclimation in a coral species to ocean acidification, emphasizing the general need for long‐term incubations in ocean acidification research. To conclude on the sensitivity of cold‐water coral reefs to future ocean acidification further ecophysiological studies are necessary which should also encompass the role of food availability and rising temperatures.     

Investigating marine bio‐calcification mechanisms in a changing ocean with in vivo and high‐resolution ex vivo Raman spectroscopy

Ocean acidification poses a serious threat to marine calcifying organisms, yet experimental and field studies have found highly diverse responses among species and environments. Our understanding of the underlying drivers of differential responses to ocean acidification is currently limited by difficulties in directly observing and quantifying the mechanisms of bio‐calcification. Here, we present Raman spectroscopy techniques for characterizing the skeletal mineralogy and calcifying fluid chemistry of marine calcifying organisms such as corals, coralline algae, foraminifera, and fish (carbonate otoliths). First, our in vivo Raman technique is the ideal tool for investigating non‐classical mineralization pathways. This includes calcification by amorphous particle attachment, which has recently been controversially suggested as a mechanism by which corals resist the negative effects of ocean acidification. Second, high‐resolution ex vivo Raman mapping reveals complex banding structures in the mineralogy of marine calcifiers, and provides a tool to quantify calcification responses to environmental variability on various timescales from days to years. We describe the new insights into marine bio‐calcification that our techniques have already uncovered, and we consider the wide range of questions regarding calcifier responses to global change that can now be proposed and addressed with these new Raman spectroscopy tools.     

The cold‐water climate shield: delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century

The distribution and future fate of ectothermic organisms in a warming world will be dictated by thermalscapes across landscapes. That is particularly true for stream fishes and cold‐water species like trout, salmon, and char that are already constrained to high elevations and latitudes. The extreme climates in those environments also preclude invasions by most non‐native species, so identifying especially cold habitats capable of absorbing future climate change while still supporting native populations would highlight important refugia. By coupling crowd‐sourced biological datasets with high‐resolution stream temperature scenarios, we delineate network refugia across >250 000 stream km in the Northern Rocky Mountains for two native salmonids—bull trout (BT) and cutthroat trout (CT). Under both moderate and extreme climate change scenarios, refugia with high probabilities of trout population occupancy (>0.9) were predicted to exist (33–68 BT refugia; 917–1425 CT refugia). Most refugia are on public lands (>90%) where few currently have protected status in National Parks or Wilderness Areas (<15%). Forecasts of refuge locations could enable protection of key watersheds and provide a foundation for climate smart planning of conservation networks. Using cold water as a ‘climate shield’ is generalizable to other species and geographic areas because it has a strong physiological basis, relies on nationally available geospatial data, and mines existing biological datasets. Importantly, the approach creates a framework to integrate data contributed by many individuals and resource agencies, and a process that strengthens the collaborative and social networks needed to preserve many cold‐water fish populations through the 21st century.     

Thermal refugia against coral bleaching throughout the northern Red Sea

Tropical reefs have been impacted by thermal anomalies caused by global warming that induced coral bleaching and mortality events globally. However, there have only been very few recordings of bleaching within the Red Sea despite covering a latitudinal range of 15° and consequently it has been considered a region that is less sensitive to thermal anomalies. We therefore examined historical patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and associated anomalies (1982–2012) and compared warming trends with a unique compilation of corresponding coral bleaching records from throughout the region. These data indicated that the northern Red Sea has not experienced mass bleaching despite intensive Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) of >15°C‐weeks. Severe bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea where DHWs have been more frequent, but far less intense (DHWs <4°C‐weeks). A similar pattern was observed during the 2015–2016 El Niño event during which time corals in the northern Red Sea did not bleach despite high thermal stress (i.e. DHWs >8°C‐weeks), and bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea despite the lower thermal stress (DHWs < 8°C‐weeks). Heat stress assays carried out in the northern (Hurghada) and central (Thuwal) Red Sea on four key reef‐building species confirmed different regional thermal susceptibility, and that central Red Sea corals are more sensitive to thermal anomalies as compared to those from the north. Together, our data demonstrate that corals in the northern Red Sea have a much higher heat tolerance than their prevailing temperature regime would suggest. In contrast, corals from the central Red Sea are close to their thermal limits, which closely match the maximum annual water temperatures. The northern Red Sea harbours reef‐building corals that live well below their bleaching thresholds and thus we propose that the region represents a thermal refuge of global importance.     

Turbid reefs moderate coral bleaching under climate‐related temperature stress

Thermal‐stress events that cause coral bleaching and mortality have recently increased in frequency and severity. Yet few studies have explored conditions that moderate coral bleaching. Given that high light and high ocean temperature together cause coral bleaching, we explore whether corals at turbid localities, with reduced light, are less likely to bleach during thermal‐stress events than corals at other localities. We analyzed coral bleaching, temperature, and turbidity data from 3,694 sites worldwide with a Bayesian model and found that K_d490, a measurement positively related to turbidity, between 0.080 and 0.127 reduced coral bleaching during thermal‐stress events. Approximately 12% of the world's reefs exist within this “moderating turbidity” range, and 30% of reefs that have moderating turbidity are in the Coral Triangle. We suggest that these turbid nearshore environments may provide some refuge through climate change, but these reefs will need high conservation status to sustain them close to dense human populations.     

Hidden impacts of ocean acidification to live and dead coral framework

Cold-water corals, such as Lophelia pertusa, are key habitat-forming organisms found throughout the world''s oceans to 3000 m deep. The complex three-dimensional framework made by these vulnerable marine ecosystems support high biodiversity and commercially important species. Given their importance, a key question is how both the living and the dead framework will fare under projected climate change. Here, we demonstrate that over 12 months L. pertusa can physiologically acclimate to increased CO₂, showing sustained net calcification. However, their new skeletal structure changes and exhibits decreased crystallographic and molecular-scale bonding organization. Although physiological acclimatization was evident, we also demonstrate that there is a negative correlation between increasing CO₂ levels and breaking strength of exposed framework (approx. 20–30% weaker after 12 months), meaning the exposed bases of reefs will be less effective ‘load-bearers’, and will become more susceptible to bioerosion and mechanical damage by 2100.     

Sensitivity of coral calcification to ocean acidification: a meta‐analysis

To date, meta‐analyses of effects of acidification have focused on the overall strength of evidence for statistically significant responses; however, to anticipate likely consequences of ocean acidification, quantitative estimates of the magnitude of likely responses are also needed. Herein, we use random effects meta‐analysis to produce a systematically integrated measure of the distribution of magnitudes of the response of coral calcification to decreasing Ω_Arag. We also tested whether methodological and biological factors that have been hypothesized to drive variation in response magnitude explain a significant proportion of the among‐study variation. We found that the overall mean response of coral calcification is ~15% per unit decrease in Ω_Arag over the range 2 < Ω_Arag < 4. Among‐study variation is large (standard deviation of 8% per unit decrease in Ω_Arag). Neither differences in carbonate chemistry manipulation method, study duration, irradiance level, nor study species growth rate explained a significant proportion of the among‐study variation. However, studies employing buoyant weighting found significantly smaller decreases in calcification per unit Ω_Arag (~10%), compared with studies using the alkalinity anomaly technique (~25%). These differences may be due to the greater tendency for the former to integrate over light and dark calcification. If the existing body of experimental work is indeed representative of likely responses of corals in nature, our results imply that, under business as usual conditions, declines in coral calcification by end‐of‐century will be ~22%, on average, or ~15% if only studies integrating light and dark calcification are considered. These values are near the low end of published projections, but support the emerging view that variability due to local environmental conditions and species composition is likely to be substantial.     

Hydrologic refugia,plants, and climate change

Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability – mesic microenvironments – are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species‐specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate‐cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow.     

Characteristics of climate change refugia for Australian biodiversity

Identifying refugia is a critical component of effective conservation of biodiversity under anthropogenic climate change. However, despite a surge in conceptual and practical interest, identifying refugia remains a significant challenge across diverse continental landscapes. We provide an overview of the key properties of refugia that promote species' persistence under climate change, including their capacity to (i) buffer species from climate change; (ii) sustain long‐term population viability and evolutionary processes; (iii) minimize the potential for deleterious species interactions, provided that the refugia are (iv) available and accessible to species under threat. Further, we classify refugia in terms of the environmental and biotic stressors that they provide protection from (i.e. thermal, hydric, cyclonic, pyric and biotic refugia), but ideally refugia should provide protection from a multitude of stressors. Our systematic characterization of refugia facilitates the identification of refugia in the Australian landscape. Challenges remain, however, specifically with respect to how to assess the quality of refugia at the level of individual species and whole species assemblages. It is essential that these challenges are overcome before refugia can live up to their acclaim as useful targets for conservation and management in the context of climate change.     

Rethinking long‐term vegetation dynamics: multiple glacial refugia and local expansion of a species complex

Evidence is accumulating that some arcto‐boreal plant taxa persisted through the last glacial maximum (LGM) in Alaska and adjacent Canada. However, the spatial patterns of glacial persistence and associated postglacial colonization remain largely unknown. In this study, we investigated the LGM refugia of an alder (Alnus) species complex (n = 3 taxa) and assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of Alnus in this vast region. Specifically, we conducted high‐throughput DNA sequencing (ddRADseq) on Alnus foliar samples collected from a dense population network to investigate patterns of genetic structure and infer the presence of glacial lineages. Species distribution modeling (SDM) was used to investigate the probability and possible locations of glacial persistence. These analyses were integrated and then compared with fossil pollen data to identify the locations of refugial populations and spatial patterns of postglacial colonization. Our genetic analyses revealed two glacial lineages with separate geographic origins for each Alnus taxon, suggesting that the genus persisted in multiple LGM refugia. Non‐overlapping hindcast distributions based on SDMs further support the presence of multiple, spatially distinct refugia. These ddRADseq and SDM results, in conjunction with reassessment of fossil pollen records, suggest that Alnus expanded from several population nuclei that existed during the LGM and coalesced during the Holocene to form its present range. These results challenge the unidirectional model for postglacial vegetation expansion, implying that climate buffering associated with landscape heterogeneity and adaptation to millennial‐scale environmental variability played important roles in driving late‐Quaternary population dynamics.     

Identifying refugia from climate change using coupled ecological and genetic data in a transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree species

Populations occurring in areas of overlap between the current and future distribution of a species are particularly important because they can represent “refugia from climate change”. We coupled ecological and range‐wide genetic variation data to detect such areas and to evaluate the impacts of habitat suitability changes on the genetic diversity of the transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree Fraxinus angustifolia. We sampled and genotyped 38 natural populations comprising 1006 individuals from across Europe. We found the highest genetic diversity in western and northern Mediterranean populations, as well as a significant west to east decline in genetic diversity. Areas of potential refugia that correspond to approximately 70% of the suitable habitat may support the persistence of more than 90% of the total number of alleles in the future. Moreover, based on correlations between Bayesian genetic assignment and climate, climate change may favour the westward spread of the Black Sea gene pool in the long term. Overall, our results suggest that the northerly core areas of the current distribution contain the most important part of the genetic variation for this species and may serve as in situ macrorefugia from ongoing climate change. However, rear‐edge populations of the southern Mediterranean may be exposed to a potential loss of unique genetic diversity owing to habitat suitability changes unless populations can persist in microrefugia that have facilitated such persistence in the past.     

Multiple ice‐age refugia in Pacific cod,Gadus macrocephalus

Pleistocene ice‐ages greatly influenced the historical abundances of Pacific cod, Gadus macrocephalus, in the North Pacific and its marginal seas. We surveyed genetic variation at 11 microsatellite loci and mitochondrial (mt) DNA in samples from twelve locations from the Sea of Japan to Washington State. Both microsatellite (mean H = 0.868) and mtDNA haplotype (mean h = 0.958) diversities were large and did not show any geographical trends. Genetic differentiation between samples was significantly correlated with geographical distance between samples for both microsatellites (F_ST = 0.028, r² = 0.33) and mtDNA (F_ST = 0.027, r² = 0.18). Both marker classes showed a strong genetic discontinuity between northwestern and northeastern Pacific populations that likely represents groups previously isolated during glaciations that are now in secondary contact. Significant differences appeared between samples from the Sea of Japan and Okhotsk Sea that may reflect ice‐age isolations in the northwest Pacific. In the northeast Pacific, a microsatellite and mtDNA partition was detected between coastal and Georgia Basin populations. The presence of two major coastal mtDNA lineages on either side of the Pacific Ocean basin implies at least two ice‐age refugia and separate postglacial population expansions facilitated by different glacial histories. Northward expansions into the Gulf of Alaska were possible 14–15 kyr ago, but deglaciation and colonization of the Georgia Basin probably occurred somewhat later. Population expansions were evident in mtDNA mismatch distributions and in Bayesian skyline plots of the three major lineages, but the start of expansions appeared to pre‐date the last glacial maximum.     

Potential for adaptive evolution at species range margins: contrasting interactions between red coral populations and their environment in a changing ocean

Studying population‐by‐environment interactions (PEIs) at species range margins offers the opportunity to characterize the responses of populations facing an extreme regime of selection, as expected due to global change. Nevertheless, the importance of these marginal populations as putative reservoirs of adaptive genetic variation has scarcely been considered in conservation biology. This is particularly true in marine ecosystems for which the deep refugia hypothesis proposes that disturbed shallow and marginal populations of a given species can be replenished by mesophotic ones. This hypothesis therefore assumes that identical PEIs exist between populations, neglecting the potential for adaptation at species range margins. Here, we combine reciprocal transplant and common garden experiments with population genetics analyses to decipher the PEIs in the red coral, Corallium rubrum. Our analyses reveal partially contrasting PEIs between shallow and mesophotic populations separated by approximately one hundred meters, suggesting that red coral populations may potentially be locally adapted to their environment. Based on the effective population size and connectivity analyses, we posit that genetic drift may be more important than gene flow in the adaptation of the red coral. We further investigate how adaptive divergence could impact population viability in the context of warming and demonstrate differential phenotypic buffering capacities against thermal stress. Our study questions the relevance of the deep refugia hypothesis and highlights the conservation value of marginal populations as a putative reservoir of adaptive genetic polymorphism.     

Phylogeography of the burnet moth Zygaena transalpina complex: molecular and morphometric differentiation suggests glacial refugia in Southern France,Western France and micro‐refugia within the Alps

Patterns of common recolonization routes from glacial refugia to Central Europe during the Pleistocene are generalized to paradigms of postglacial recolonization in Europe. Recent studies indicate, however, that the actual phylogeographic history of many species might be more complex and cannot be simplified to generalized patterns. Burnet moths of the Zygaena transalpina complex represent a group of closely related taxa, which are considered as a typical example for these generalized patterns. At present, three groups are recognized that are assumed to have spread from three classical refugia in Western Europe, Italy and the Balkans to Central Europe. Here, we re‐investigate their phylogeography using a combined molecular and morphometric approach. Phylogenetic and nested clade phylogeographic analyses of 476 samples from 55 localities taken from Southern and Central Europe reveal that the Zygaena transalpina complex consists of three distinct haplotype clusters, which geographically roughly correspond to possible refugia in Western Europe, Italy and the Balkans. A synthesis of the data with a geometric morphometry dataset of 425 specimens from 46 localities corroborates this molecular result but differs in several aspects. Important new aspects are multiple refugia of the western ‘hippocrepidis’ branch and micro‐habitats within the Alps of the central ‘transalpina’ branch. Further, our results display a more complex phylogeographic pattern for this species complex, which is not tractable with a rigid, generalized pattern.     

Danian cold‐water corals from the Baunekule facies,Faxe Formation,Denmark: a rare taphonomic window of a coral mound flank habitat

Well‐preserved cold‐water corals are comparatively rare in the fossil record. This is partly due to the very low fossilization potential of the predominantly aragonitic corals but also due to the fact that coral ecosystems of deep water are a geologically young development. A Middle Danian cold‐water coral mound complex is well exposed in Faxe Quarry, Denmark. The coral mounds are intercalated with bryozoan mounds of various sizes and form the Faxe Formation. The coral limestone displays large variations in diagenesis, and this complicates the palaeoecological reconstructions. However, the Baunekule facies from the Faxe Formation contain a well‐preserved originally aragonitic and calcitic fauna. The aragonitic skeletons have been recrystallized to calcite during early diagenesis and the excellent preservation makes taxonomic identifications straightforward. A diverse fauna of ten scleractinian coral species, nine stylasterine coral species and seven octocoral species has been described from the Baunekule facies. The fossil fauna represents an ecological niche between the dead coral framework and coral rubble on a flank of a growing Dendrophyllia coral mound with multiple colonization events. The diversity and relative abundance of the fossil scleractinian corals are comparable to the modern settings in the NE Atlantic and Mediterranean. The distribution and diversity of the octocorals and the stylasterine corals are suggested to represent coral gardens as described from modern setting in the NE Pacific. The presence of a diverse and abundant stylasterine fauna suggests a stable palaeoenvironment, probably in a bathymetric depth range of 200–400 metre.