Natural climate solutions versus bioenergy: Can carbon benefits of natural succession compete with bioenergy from short rotation coppice?

Short rotation plantations are often considered as holding vast potentials for future global bioenergy supply. In contrast to raising biomass harvests in forests, purpose‐grown biomass does not interfere with forest carbon (C) stocks. Provided that agricultural land can be diverted from food and feed production without impairing food security, energy plantations on current agricultural land appear as a beneficial option in terms of renewable, climate‐friendly energy supply. However, instead of supporting energy plantations, land could also be devoted to natural succession. It then acts as a long‐term C sink which also results in C benefits. We here compare the sink strength of natural succession on arable land with the C saving effects of bioenergy from plantations. Using geographically explicit data on global cropland distribution among climate and ecological zones, regionally specific C accumulation rates are calculated with IPCC default methods and values. C savings from bioenergy are given for a range of displacement factors (DFs), acknowledging the varying efficiency of bioenergy routes and technologies in fossil fuel displacement. A uniform spatial pattern is assumed for succession and bioenergy plantations, and the considered timeframes range from 20 to 100 years. For many parameter settings—in particular, longer timeframes and high DFs—bioenergy yields higher cumulative C savings than natural succession. Still, if woody biomass displaces liquid transport fuels or natural gas‐based electricity generation, natural succession is competitive or even superior for timeframes of 20–50 years. This finding has strong implications with climate and environmental policies: Freeing land for natural succession is a worthwhile low‐cost natural climate solution that has many co‐benefits for biodiversity and other ecosystem services. A considerable risk, however, is C stock losses (i.e., emissions) due to disturbances or land conversion at a later time.     

Is woody bioenergy carbon neutral? A comparative assessment of emissions from consumption of woody bioenergy and fossil fuel

Under the current accounting systems, emissions produced when biomass is burnt for energy are accounted as zero, resulting in what is referred to as the ‘carbon neutrality’ assumption. However, if current harvest levels are increased to produce more bioenergy, carbon that would have been stored in the biosphere might be instead released in the atmosphere. This study utilizes a comparative approach that considers emissions under alternative energy supply options. This approach shows that the emission benefits of bioenergy compared to use of fossil fuel are time‐dependent. It emerges that the assumption that bioenergy always results in zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to use of fossil fuels can be misleading, particularly in the context of short‐to‐medium term goals. While it is clear that all sources of woody bioenergy from sustainably managed forests will produce emission reductions in the long term, different woody biomass sources have various impacts in the short‐medium term. The study shows that the use of forest residues that are easily decomposable can produce GHG benefits compared to use of fossil fuels from the beginning of their use and that biomass from dedicated plantations established on marginal land can be carbon neutral from the beginning of its use. However, the risk of short‐to‐medium term negative impacts is high when additional fellings are extracted to produce bioenergy and the proportion of felled biomass used for bioenergy is low, or when land with high C stocks is converted to low productivity bioenergy plantations. The method used in the study provides an instrument to identify the time‐dependent pattern of emission reductions for alternative bioenergy sources. In this way, decision makers can evaluate which bioenergy options are most beneficial for meeting short‐term GHG emission reduction goals and which ones are more appropriate for medium to longer term objectives.     

Can carbon credits fund riparian forest restoration?

Ecological restoration is increasingly called on to provide ecosystem services (ES) valuable to humans, as well as to benefit biodiversity and improve wildlife habitat. Where mechanisms to pay for ES exist, they may serve as incentives to embark on habitat restoration projects. We evaluated the potential of newly established carbon markets in the United States to incentivize afforestation along riparian corridors, by comparing the income earnable by carbon offset credits with the costs of planting, maintaining, and registering such a restoration project in California. We used a 20‐year chronosequence of riparian forest sites along the Sacramento River as our model project. We found that carbon credits can repay more than 100% of costs after two decades of regrowth, if sufficient effort is put into sampling intensity in the first post‐restoration decade. However, carbon credits alone are unlikely to entice landowners currently engaged in agricultural activities to switch from farming crops to farming habitat.     

Can we rely on forest reserves for primate conservation?

Tropical forests contain much of the world's biodiversity, yet their rate of decline is increasing. The strategy most frequently used to protect this biodiversity is to make parks and reserves. While there is a great deal of research on the effectiveness of parks for protecting biodiversity, there is little research on how well extractive reserves conserve biodiversity. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of four forest reserves in western Uganda at maintaining populations of primates and compare census data from the reserves to data from the neighbouring well‐protected Kibale National Park. The relative abundance of the five most common primates in the park was approximately four times that of the forest reserves. In the forest reserves, evidence of new human encroachment was seen every 500 m, while in the park it was seen every 100,000 m. Two recommendations emerge from our research: (i) for forest reserves, such as those studied here, to have conservation value for primates, extraction must be reduced and (ii) until the long‐term viability of the populations in forest reserves can be ascertained, they should not be considered in estimates of the sizes of endangered species protected ranges.     

Can we manage microbial systems to enhance carbon storage?

Climate change is an urgent environmental issue with wide-ranging impacts on ecosystems and society. Microbes are instrumental in maintaining the balance between carbon (C) accumulation and loss in the biosphere, actively regulating greenhouse gas fluxes from vast reservoirs of organic C stored in soils, sediments and oceans. Heterotrophic microbes exhibit varying capacities to access, degrade and metabolise organic C—leading to variations in remineralisation and turnover rates. The present challenge lies in effectively translating this accumulated knowledge into strategies that effectively steer the fate of organic C towards prolonged sequestration. In this article, we discuss three ecological scenarios that offer potential avenues for shaping C turnover rates in the environment. Specifically, we explore the promotion of slow-cycling microbial byproducts, the facilitation of higher carbon use efficiency, and the influence of biotic interactions. The ability to harness and control these processes relies on the integration of ecological principles and management practices, combined with advances in economically viable technologies to effectively manage microbial systems in the environment.     

Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?

Large‐scale and long‐term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process‐based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26‐year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North‐East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical–biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5°. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5° scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales.     

Can we predict carbon stocks in tropical ecosystems from tree diversity? Comparing species and functional diversity in a plantation and a natural forest

? Linking tree diversity to carbon storage can provide further motivation to conserve tropical forests and to design carbon-enriched plantations. Here, we examine the role of tree diversity and functional traits in determining carbon storage in a mixed-species plantation and in a natural tropical forest in Panama. ? We used species richness, functional trait diversity, species dominance and functional trait dominance to predict tree carbon storage across these two forests. Then we compared the species ranking based on wood density, maximum diameter, maximum height, and leaf mass per area (LMA) between sites to reveal how these values changed between different forests. ? Increased species richness, a higher proportion of nitrogen fixers and species with low LMA increased carbon storage in the mixed-species plantation, while a higher proportion of large trees and species with high LMA increased tree carbon storage in the natural forest. Furthermore, we found that tree species varied greatly in their absolute and relative values between study sites. ? Different results in different forests mean that we cannot easily predict carbon storage capacity in natural forests using data from experimental plantations. Managers should be cautious when applying functional traits measured in natural populations in the design of carbon-enriched plantations.     

Can neutral theory predict the responses of Amazonian tree communities to forest fragmentation?

We use Hubbell's neutral theory to predict the impact of habitat fragmentation on Amazonian tree communities. For forest fragments isolated for about two decades, we generate neutral predictions for local species extinction, changes in species composition within fragments, and increases in the probability that any two trees within a fragment are conspecific. We tested these predictions using fragment and intact forest data from the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project in central Amazonia. To simulate complete demographic isolation, we excluded immigrants--species absent from a fragment or intact forest plot in the initial census but present in its last census--from our tests. The neutral theory correctly predicted the rate of species extinction from different plots as a function of the diversity and mortality rate of trees in each plot. However, the rate of change in species composition was much faster than predicted in fragments, indicating that different tree species respond differently to environmental changes. This violates the key assumption of neutral theory. When immigrants were included in our calculations, they increased the disparity between predicted and observed changes in fragments. Overall, neutral theory accurately predicted the pace of local extinctions in fragments but consistently underestimated changes in species composition.     

Can biomass supply meet the demands of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)?

To reach the reduced carbon emission targets proposed by the Paris agreement, one of the widely proposed decarbonizing strategies, referred to as negative emissions technologies (NETs), is the production and combustion of bioenergy crops in conjunction with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). However, concerns have been increasingly raised that relying on the potential of BECCS to achieve negative emissions could result in delayed reductions in gross CO₂ emissions, with consequent high risk of overshooting global temperature targets. We focus on two particular issues: the carbon efficiency and payback time of bioenergy use in BECCS and the potential constraints on the supply of bioenergy. The simplistic vision of BECCS is that 1 tonne of CO₂ captured in the growth of biomass equates to 1 tonne of CO₂ sequestered geologically, but this cannot be the case as CO₂ is emitted by variable amounts during the lifecycle from crop establishment to sequestration below ground in geological formations. The deployment of BECCS is ultimately reliant on the availability of sufficient, sustainably sourced, biomass. The two most important factors determining this supply are land availability and land productivity. The upper bounds of the area estimates required correspond to more than the world's harvested land for cereal production. To achieve these estimates of biomass availability requires the rapid evolution of a multitude of technological, social, political and economic factors. Here, we question whether, because of the limited sustainable supply of biomass, BECCS should continue to be considered the dominant NET in IPCC and other scenarios achieving the Paris targets, or should it be deemed no longer fit for purpose?     

Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (T_b) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key – but often biologically unreasonable – assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced T_b. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage‐specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with T_b, to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change.     

Carbon debt repayment or carbon sequestration parity? Lessons from a forest bioenergy case study in Ontario,Canada

Forest bioenergy can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with energy production. We assessed changes in GHG emissions resulting from displacement of coal with wood pellets for the Atikokan Generating Station located in Northwestern Ontario, Canada. Two contrasting biomass sources were considered for continuous wood pellet production: harvest residue from current harvest operations (residue scenario) and fibre from expanded harvest of standing live trees (stemwood scenario). For the stemwood scenario, two metrics were used to assess the effects of displacing coal with forest biomass on GHG emissions: (i) time to carbon sequestration parity, defined as the time from the beginning of harvest to when the combined GHG benefit of displacing coal with biomass and the amount of carbon in regenerating forest equalled the amount of forest carbon without harvest for energy production; and (ii) time to carbon debt repayment, defined as the time from the beginning of harvest to when the combined GHG benefit of displacing coal with biomass and the amount of carbon in the regenerating forest equalled forest carbon at the time of harvest. Only time to carbon sequestration parity was used for the residue scenario. In the residue scenario, carbon sequestration parity was achieved within 1 year. In the stemwood scenario, times to carbon sequestration parity and carbon debt repayment were 91 and 112 years, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that estimates were robust when parameter values were varied. Modelling experiments showed that increasing growth rates for regenerating stands in the stemwood scenario could substantially reduce time to carbon sequestration parity. We discuss the use of the two metrics (time to carbon sequestration parity and time to carbon debt repayment) for assessing the effects of forest bioenergy projects on GHG emissions and make recommendations on terminology and methodologies for forest bioenergy studies.     

The time aspect of bioenergy – climate impacts of solid biofuels due to carbon dynamics

The climate impacts from bioenergy involve an important time aspect. Using forest residues for energy may result in high initial emissions, but net emissions are reduced over time since, if the residues were left on the ground, they would decompose and release CO₂ to the atmosphere. This article investigates the climate impacts from bioenergy with special focus on the time aspects. More specifically, we analyze the climate impacts of forest residues and stumps where combustion related emissions are compensated by avoided emissions from leaving them on the ground to decompose. These biofuels are compared with fossil gas and coal. Net emissions are defined as emissions from utilizing the fuel minus emissions from a reference case of no utilization. Climate impacts are estimated using the measures radiative forcing and global average surface temperature. We find that the climate impacts from using forest residues and stumps depend on the decomposition rates and the time perspective over which the analysis is done. Over a 100 year perspective, branches and tops have lower climate impacts than stumps which in turn have lower impacts than fossil gas and coal. Over a 20 year time perspective, branches and tops have lower climate impacts than all other fuels but the relative difference is smaller. However, stumps have slightly higher climate impacts over 20 years than fossil gas but lower impacts than coal. Regarding metrics for climate impacts, over shorter time scales, approximately 30 years or less, radiative forcing overestimates the climate impacts compared with impacts expressed by global surface temperature change, which is due to the inertia of the climate system. We also find that establishing willow on earlier crop land may reduce atmospheric CO₂, provided new land is available. However, these results are inconclusive since we haven't considered the effects of producing the agricultural crops elsewhere.     

Litter decomposition: what controls it and how can we alter it to sequester more carbon in forest soils?

Key recent developments in litter decomposition research are reviewed. Long-term inter-site experiments indicate that temperature and moisture influence early rates of litter decomposition primarily by determining the plants present, suggesting that climate change effects will be small unless they alter the plant forms present. Thresholds may exist at which single factors control decay rate. Litter decomposes faster where the litter type naturally occurs. Elevated CO₂ concentrations have little effect on litter decomposition rates. Plant tissues are not decay-resistant; it is microbial and biochemical transformations of materials into novel recalcitrant compounds rather than selective preservation of recalcitrant compounds that creates stable organic matter. Altering single characteristics of litter will not substantially alter decomposition rates. Nitrogen addition frequently leads to greater stabilization into humus through a combination of chemical reactions and enzyme inhibition. To sequester more C in soil, we need to consider not how to slow decomposition, but rather how to divert more litter into humus through microbial and chemical reactions rather than allowing it to decompose. The optimal strategy is to have litter transformed into humic substances and then chemically or physically protected in mineral soil. Adding N through fertilization and N-fixing plants is a feasible means of stimulating humification.     

Can we predict nutrient limitation in streams and rivers?

1. Anthropogenic impacts on the biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) affect natural ecosystems worldwide. Modelling is required to predict where and when these key nutrients limit primary production in freshwaters. 2. We reviewed 382 nutrient‐enrichment experiments to examine which factors promote limitation of microphytobenthos biomass by N or P in streams and rivers. Using regression models, we examined whether the response of microphytobenthos biomass to N and P additions could be predicted by the absolute N and P concentrations in the water, the water N:P ratio or a combination of the two. 3. The absolute N concentration in the water was the best predictor of the magnitude of the response of microphytobenthos biomass to N additions. In comparison, the N:P ratio was the best predictor of whether or not N was limiting. However, predictions were uncertain except at extreme N:P ratios <1 : 1 and >100 : 1. 4. The absolute P concentration in the water was the best predictor of the magnitude of the response of microphytobenthos biomass to P additions. Neither the absolute nor the relative N and P concentrations predicted whether or not P was limiting. 5. The absolute and the relative N and P water concentrations contribute significant and complementary insights into the responses of microphytobenthos biomass to nutrient enrichment in running waters. However, ability to predict nutrient limitation from these concentrations is constrained by substantial error in the models. In the future, the prediction ability of models of nutrient limitation might be improved by focussing on regional scales and accounting for additional factors such as light and disturbance.     

Response of vegetation and soil carbon accumulation rate for China's mature forest on climate change北大核心CSCD

Aims This study aims to evaluate the impacts of future climate change on vegetation and soil carbon accumulation rate in China's forests. Methods The vegetation and soil carbon storage were predicted by the atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2) based on B2 climate change scenario during the period of 1981 2040. This study focused on mature forests in China and the forested area maintained constant over the study period. The carbon accumulation rate in year t is defined as the carbon storage of year t minus that of year t 1. Important findings Under B2 climate change scenario, mean air temperature in China's forested area was projected to rise from 7.8 °C in 1981 to 9.0 °C in 2040. The total vegetation carbon storage was then estimated to increase from 8.56 Pg C in 1981 to 9.79 Pg C in 2040, meanwhile total vegetation carbon accumulation rate was estimated to fluctuate between 0.054 0.076 Pg C•a1, with the average of 0.022 Pg C•a1. The total soil carbon storage was estimated to increase from 30.2 Pg C in 1981 to 30.72 Pg C in 2040, and total soil carbon accumulation rate was estimated to vary in the range of 0.035 0.072 Pg C•a1, with the mean of 0.010 Pg C•a1. The response of vegetation and soil carbon accumulation rate to climate change had significant spatial difference in China although the two time series did not show significant trend over the study period. Our results also showed warming was not in favor of forest carbon accumulation, so in the northeastern and southeastern forested area, especially in the Changbai Mountain, with highest temperature increase in the future, the vegetation and soil carbon accumulation rate were estimated to decrease greatly. However, in the southern of southwestern forested area and other forested area, with relatively less temperature increase, the vegetation and soil carbon accumulation rate was estimated to increase in the future.     

Can biodiversity hotspots protect more than tropical forest plants and vertebrates?

Conservation International's biodiversity hotspots are areas of high vascular plant endemism combined with high levels of habitat destruction and land use change. Although such hotspots have also been shown to be centres for terrestrial vertebrate endemism, much less is known about how well these areas function as hotspots for other less well‐studied groups, including the hyperdiverse arthropods, other invertebrates and fungi. Because there is a close evolutionary and ecological relationship between insects and plants, we suggest that the potential role of plants as umbrella species for herbivorous insects, potentially herbivorous fungi and nematodes, and parasitic insects should be explored. Finally, we reflect on the increasing social, economic, human conflict and governance issues and the impacts of increasing land use change and global climate change that threaten the biodiversity hotspot system.     

When can we distinguish between neutral and non‐neutral processes in community dynamics under ecological drift?

Determining whether the composition of ecological communities (species presence and abundance), can be predicted from species demographic traits, rather than being a result of neutral drift, is a key ecological question. Here we compare the similarity of community composition, from different community assembly models run under identical environmental conditions, where interspecific competition is assumed to be either neutral or niche-based. In both cases, species colonize a focal patch from a network of neighbouring patches in a metacommunity. We highlight the circumstances (rate and spatial scale of dispersal, and the relative importance of ecological drift) where commonly used community similarity metrics or species rank–abundance relationships are likely to give similar results, regardless of the underlying processes (neutral or non-neural) driving species' dynamics. As drift becomes more important in driving species abundances, deterministic niche structure has a smaller influence. Our ability to discriminate between different underlying processes driving community organization depends on the relative importance of different drift processes that operate on different spatial scales.     

Can we predict perceived risk?

This paper examines the possibility that we may be able to use subjective measures of perceived risk in order to assess the relative safety of different shift systems. A large-scale survey of safety-critical engineers included three items relating to risk on each shift, namely alertness, likelihood of making a mistake and confidence in driving home after it. These three measures were found to load on a separate factor for each shift. Hierarchical regression analyses indicated that perceived night shift risk could be predicted on the basis of circadian type, the extent to which the engineers could control their work schedule, and a number of features of the scheduled shift system. In most cases the relationships observed were reasonably consistent with established trends in either performance capability or accident and injury frequency. However, there were exceptions to this indicating that results based on measures of perceived risk should be interpreted with the utmost caution.