Weighing the cost: the impact of serial heatwaves on body mass in a small Australian passerine

Rising temperatures pose a grave risk to arid zone birds because they are already living close to their physiological limits and must balance water conservation against the need for evaporative cooling. We assess how extreme temperatures affect a wild population of small passerines by monitoring daily mass change in individual jacky winters Microeca fascinans (a small Australasian robin) across a series of severe heatwaves that afflicted southern Australia in the summer of 2018–2019. Daily maximum temperature and duration of heat exposure were negatively related to the birds’ ability to maintain body mass. At maximum temperatures ≥ 42°C, birds lost 2.0% of their body mass daily and at ≥ 45°C, 2.6%. Apparent mortality increased almost three‐fold, and all breeding birds abandoned their nests. Nevertheless, net daily mass loss was less than might be expected from laboratory‐based findings, presumably because wild jacky winters undertook behavioural thermoregulation. The birds also regained some mass between heatwave events and suffered no long‐term reduction in body condition.     

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain‐on‐snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between‐year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long‐term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density‐dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.     

Decline of a montane Mediterranean pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population in relation to climate

Certain populations of long‐distance migratory birds are suffering declines, which may be attributed to effects of climate change. In this article, we have analysed a long‐term (1991–2015) data set on a pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population breeding in nest‐boxes in a Mediterranean montane oak forest, exploring the trends in population size due to changes in nestling recruitment, female survival and female immigration. We have related these changes in population parameters to local climate, winter NAO index and to breeding density. During the last 25 yr the population has declined by half, mainly in association with a decrease in nestling mass and structural size which had repercussions on the probability of nestling recruitment to the population. Lower local nestling recruitment in certain years was linked to lower female immigration rate in the same years. On the other hand, the local survival of females remained stable throughout the study period. Laying date and breeding success were negatively affected by local temperatures while breeding, recruitment rate likewise by minimum temperature prior to breeding in April. As minimum April temperatures have increased across the study period, this may have affected recruitment and immigration rates negatively. On the other hand, tarsus length and body mass of nestlings were positively associated with winter NAO index, pointing to more global climatic links. Moreover, there was also a negative temporal trend in body mass of adults, implying increasingly difficult conditions for breeding. Declining recruit production in the study area could be attributed to a mismatch between the timing of arrival and breeding in the population, and the peak of food availability in this area.     

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long‐lived amphibian

Weather fluctuations have been demonstrated to affect demographic traits in many species. In long‐lived organisms, their impact on adult survival might be buffered by the evolution of traits that reduce variation in interannual adult survival. For example, skipping breeding is an effective behavioral mechanism that may limit yearly variation in adult survival when harsh weather conditions occur; however, this in turn would likely lead to strong variation in recruitment. Yet, only a few studies to date have examined the impact of weather variation on survival, recruitment and breeding probability simultaneously in different populations of the same species. To fill this gap, we studied the impact of spring temperatures and spring rainfall on survival, on reproductive skipping behavior and on recruitment in five populations of a long‐lived amphibian, the yellow‐bellied toad (Bombina variegata). Based on capture–recapture data, our findings demonstrate that survival depends on interactions between age, population and weather variation. Varying weather conditions in the spring result in strong variation in the survival of immature toads, whereas they have little effect on adult toads. Breeding probability depends on both the individual's previous reproductive status and on the weather conditions during the current breeding season, leading to high interannual variation in recruitment. Crucially, we found that the impact of weather variation on demographic traits is largely context dependent and may thus differ sharply between populations. Our results suggest that studies predicting the impact of climate change on population dynamics should be taken with caution when the relationship between climate and demographic traits is established using only one population or few populations. We therefore highly recommend further research that includes surveys replicated in a substantial number of populations to account for context‐dependent variation in demographic processes.     

Effects of decreased anthropogenic food availability on an opportunistic gull: evidence for a size‐mediated response in breeding females

Some opportunistic vertebrates exploit, and may largely rely upon, food generated by human activities. Better understanding the influence of this additional anthropogenic food on species' ecology would inform sustainable waste management. In the Balearic Archipelago of Spain, closure of an open‐air landfill site provided an experimental setting to measure the effect of removing anthropogenic food on the average body mass, breeding parameters and body condition of opportunistic Yellow‐legged Gulls Larus michahellis. After landfill closure there was a significant decline in the average body mass of breeding females and males (?10.4 and ?7.8%, respectively), in average egg volume (?4.8%), and a shift in the modal clutch size from three to two eggs. Body condition decreased after landfill closure in both sexes. In breeding females, the drop in body weight was greater for birds with a low body size index. The differential response to a reduction of anthropogenic food between small and large birds suggests that food of anthropogenic origin contributes to tempering the effects of natural selection, making the long‐term demographic effects of changes in food supply difficult to predict.     

When to start and when to stop: Effects of climate on breeding in a multi‐brooded songbird

Climate warming has been shown to affect the timing of the onset of breeding of many bird species across the world. However, for multi‐brooded species, climate may also affect the timing of the end of the breeding season, and hence also its duration, and these effects may have consequences for fitness. We used 28 years of field data to investigate the links between climate, timing of breeding, and breeding success in a cooperatively breeding passerine, the superb fairy‐wren (Malurus cyaneus). This multi‐brooded species from southeastern Australia has a long breeding season and high variation in phenology between individuals. By applying a “sliding window” approach, we found that higher minimum temperatures in early spring resulted in an earlier start and a longer duration of breeding, whereas less rainfall and more heatwaves (days > 29°C) in late summer resulted in an earlier end and a shorter duration of breeding. Using a hurdle model analysis, we found that earlier start dates did not predict whether or not females produced any young in a season. However, for successful females who produced at least one young, earlier start dates were associated with higher numbers of young produced in a season. Earlier end dates were associated with a higher probability of producing at least one young, presumably because unsuccessful females kept trying when others had ceased. Despite larger scale trends in climate, climate variables in the windows relevant to this species’ phenology did not change across years, and there were no temporal trends in phenology during our study period. Our results illustrate a scenario in which higher temperatures advanced both start and end dates of individuals’ breeding seasons, but did not generate an overall temporal shift in breeding times. They also suggest that the complexity of selection pressures on breeding phenology in multi‐brooded species may have been underestimated.     

Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth

Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species’ life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross‐validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long‐term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO₂ concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long‐term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.     

Dynamic size responses to climate change: prevailing effects of rising temperature drive long‐term body size increases in a semi‐arid passerine

Changes in animal body size have been widely reported as a correlate of contemporary climate change. Body size affects metabolism and fitness, so changing size has implications for resilience, yet the climatic factors that drive size variation remain poorly understood. We test the role of mean and extreme temperature, rainfall, and remotely sensed primary productivity (NDVI) as drivers of body size in a sedentary, semi‐arid Australian passerine, Ptilotula (Lichenostomus) penicillatus, over 23 years. To distinguish effects due to differential growth from changes in population composition, we analysed first‐year birds and adults separately and considered climatic variation at three temporal scales (current, previous, and preceding 5 years). The strongest effects related to temperature: in both age classes, larger size was associated with warmer mean temperatures in the previous year, contrary to Bergmann's Rule. Moreover, adults were larger in warmer breeding seasons, while first years was larger after heatwaves; these effects are more likely to be mediated through size‐dependent mortality, highlighting the role of body size in determining vulnerability to extinction. In addition to temperature, larger adult size was associated with lower primary productivity, which may reflect a trade‐off between vegetative growth and nectar production, on which adults rely. Finally, lower rainfall was associated with decreasing size in first year and adults, most likely related to decreased food availability. Overall, body size increased over 23 years, strongly in first‐year birds (2.7%) compared with adults (1%), with size outcomes a balance between competing drivers. As rainfall declined over time and productivity remained fairly stable, the temporal increase in body size appears largely driven by rising mean temperature and temperature extremes. Body size responses to environmental change are thus complex and dynamic, driven by effects on growth as well as mortality.     

Weather effects on birds of different size are mediated by long‐term climate and vegetation type in endangered temperate woodlands

Species occurrence is influenced by a range of factors including habitat attributes, climate, weather, and human landscape modification. These drivers are likely to interact, but their effects are frequently quantified independently. Here, we report the results of a 13‐year study of temperate woodland birds in south‐eastern Australia to quantify how different‐sized birds respond to the interacting effects of: (a) short‐term weather (rainfall and temperature in the 12 months preceding our surveys), (b) long‐term climate (average rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures over the period 1970–2014), and (c) broad structural forms of vegetation (old‐growth woodland, regrowth woodland, and restoration plantings). We uncovered significant interactions between bird body size, vegetation type, climate, and weather. High short‐term rainfall was associated with decreased occurrence of large birds in old‐growth and regrowth woodland, but not in restoration plantings. Conversely, small bird occurrence peaked in wet years, but this effect was most pronounced in locations with a history of high rainfall, and was actually reversed (peak occurrence in dry years) in restoration plantings in dry climates. The occurrence of small birds was depressed—and large birds elevated—in hot years, except in restoration plantings which supported few large birds under these circumstances. Our investigation suggests that different mechanisms may underpin contrasting responses of small and large birds to the interacting effects of climate, weather, and vegetation type. A diversity of vegetation cover is needed across a landscape to promote the occurrence of different‐sized bird species in agriculture‐dominated landscapes, particularly under variable weather conditions. Climate change is predicted to lead to widespread drying of our study region, and restoration plantings—especially currently climatically wet areas—may become critically important for conserving bird species, particularly small‐bodied taxa.     

Environmental drivers of roosting body mass variation in boreal Great Tits Parus major

Small wintering passerines adaptively modulate daily body mass acquisition as part of their energy management policy. However, whether birds optimize overnight mass loss or body mass at dawn remains poorly understood. We studied environmental correlates of individual variation in body mass at dusk, overnight mass loss and body mass at dawn in a wild population of Great Tits Parus major wintering in northern Fennoscandia. Body mass at dusk, overnight mass loss and body mass at dawn were independent of prevailing conditions despite extremely low night ambient temperatures. Body mass at dusk was higher in males than in females, and decreased throughout winter and when snowfall was higher in the previous month. Overnight mass loss increased with precipitation during the previous week and tended to be higher in mid‐winter, when nights were longest. However, birds reduced overnight mass loss with higher temperatures in the previous week and higher precipitation in the previous 2 weeks. Dawn body mass was strongly correlated with dusk body mass and overnight mass loss, and showed only mild associations with weather variables once dusk mass was accounted for. Body mass in roosting boreal Great Tits seems to be constrained by recent snowfall as the winter progresses, but otherwise appears to be mostly unaffected by previous and current temperatures, suggesting a regular use of facultative hypothermia.     

Experimental nest cooling reveals dramatic effects of heatwaves on reproduction in a Mediterranean bird of prey

Future climatic scenarios forecast increases in average temperatures as well as in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events, such as heatwaves. Whereas behavioral adjustments can buffer direct physiological and fitness costs of exposure to excessive temperature in wild animals, these may prove more difficult during specific life stages when vagility is reduced (e.g., early developmental stages). By means of a nest cooling experiment, we tested the effects of extreme temperatures on different stages of reproduction in a cavity-nesting Mediterranean bird of prey, the lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni), facing a recent increase in the frequency of heatwaves during its breeding season. Nest temperature in a group of nest boxes placed on roof terraces was reduced by shading them from direct sunlight in 2 consecutive years (2021 and 2022). We then compared hatching failure, mortality, and nestling morphology between shaded and non-shaded (control) nest boxes. Nest temperature in control nest boxes was on average 3.9°C higher than in shaded ones during heatwaves, that is, spells of extreme air temperature (>37°C for ≥2 consecutive days) which hit the study area during the nestling-rearing phase in both years. Hatching failure markedly increased with increasing nest temperature, rising above 50% when maximum nest temperatures exceeded 44°C. Nestlings from control nest boxes showed higher mortality during heatwaves (55% vs. 10% in shaded nest boxes) and those that survived further showed impaired morphological growth (body mass and skeletal size). Hence, heatwaves occurring during the breeding period can have both strong lethal and sublethal impacts on different components of avian reproduction, from egg hatching to nestling growth. More broadly, these findings suggest that the projected future increases of summer temperatures and heatwave frequency in the Mediterranean basin and elsewhere in temperate areas may threaten the local persistence of even relatively warm-adapted species.     

Delayed egg‐laying and shortened incubation duration of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds coincide with climate cooling

Biological impacts of climate change are exemplified by shifts in phenology. As the timing of breeding advances, the within‐season relationships between timing of breeding and reproductive traits may change and cause long‐term changes in the population mean value of reproductive traits. We investigated long‐term changes in the timing of breeding and within‐season patterns of clutch size, egg volume, incubation duration, and daily nest survival of three shorebird species between two decades. Based on previously known within‐season patterns and assuming a warming trend, we hypothesized that the timing of clutch initiation would advance between decades and would be coupled with increases in mean clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival rate. We monitored 1,378 nests of western sandpipers, semipalmated sandpipers, and red‐necked phalaropes at a subarctic site during 1993–1996 and 2010–2014. Sandpipers have biparental incubation, whereas phalaropes have uniparental incubation. We found an unexpected long‐term cooling trend during the early part of the breeding season. Three species delayed clutch initiation by 5 days in the 2010s relative to the 1990s. Clutch size and daily nest survival showed strong within‐season declines in sandpipers, but not in phalaropes. Egg volume showed strong within‐season declines in one species of sandpiper, but increased in phalaropes. Despite the within‐season patterns in traits and shifts in phenology, clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival were similar between decades. In contrast, incubation duration did not show within‐season variation, but decreased by 2 days in sandpipers and increased by 2 days in phalaropes. Shorebirds demonstrated variable breeding phenology and incubation duration in relation to climate cooling, but little change in nonphenological components of traits. Our results indicate that the breeding phenology of shorebirds is closely associated with the temperature conditions on breeding ground, the effects of which can vary among reproductive traits and among sympatric species.     

Higher temperatures during development reduce body size in the zebra finch in the laboratory and in the wild

The most commonly documented morphological response across many taxa to climatic variation across their range follows Bergmann's rule, which predicts larger body size in colder climates. In observational data from wild zebra finches breeding across a range of temperatures in the spring and summer, we show that this relationship appears to be driven by the negative effect of high temperatures during development. This idea was then experimentally tested on zebra finches breeding in temperature‐controlled climates in the laboratory. These experiments confirmed that those individualso produced in a hot environment (30 °C) were smaller than those produced in cool conditions (18 °C). Our results suggest a proximate causal link between temperature and body size and suggest that a hotter climate during breeding periods could drive significant changes in morphology within and between populations. This effect could account for much of the variation in body size that drives the well‐observed patterns first described by Bergmann and that is still largely attributed to selection on adult body size during cold winters. The climate‐dependent developmental plasticity that we have demonstrated is an important component in understanding how endotherms may be affected by climate change.     

Offspring size at weaning affects survival to recruitment and reproductive performance of primiparous gray seals

Offspring size affects survival and subsequent reproduction in many organisms. However, studies of offspring size in large mammals are often limited to effects on juveniles because of the difficulty of following individuals to maturity. We used data from a long‐term study of individually marked gray seals (Halichoerus grypus; Fabricius, 1791) to test the hypothesis that larger offspring have higher survival to recruitment and are larger and more successful primiparous mothers than smaller offspring. Between 1998 and 2002, 1182 newly weaned female pups were branded with unique permanent marks on Sable Island, Canada. Each year through 2012, all branded females returning to the breeding colony were identified in weekly censuses and a subset were captured and measured. Females that survived were significantly longer offspring than those not sighted, indicating size‐selective mortality between weaning and recruitment. The probability of female survival to recruitment varied among cohorts and increased nonlinearly with body mass at weaning. Beyond 51.5 kg (mean population weaning mass) weaning mass did not influence the probability of survival. The probability of female survival to recruitment increased monotonically with body length at weaning. Body length at primiparity was positively related to her body length and mass at weaning. Three‐day postpartum mass (proxy for birth mass) of firstborn pups was also positively related to body length of females when they were weaned. However, females that were longer or heavier when they were weaned did not wean heavier firstborn offspring.     

Cold tolerance,and not earlier arrival on breeding grounds,explains why males winter further north in an Arctic‐breeding songbird

Sex biases in distributions of migratory birds during the non‐breeding season are widespread; however, the proximate mechanisms contributing to broad‐scale sex‐ratio variation are not well understood. We analyzed a long‐term winter‐banding dataset in combination with spring migration data from individuals tracked by using geolocators to test three hypotheses for observed variation in sex‐ratios in wintering flocks of snow buntings Plectrophenax nivalis. We quantified relevant weather conditions in winter (temperature, snowfall and snow depth) at each banding site each year and measured body size and condition (fat scores) of individual birds (n > 5500). We also directly measured spring migration distance for 17 individuals by using light‐level geolocators. If the distribution pattern of birds in winter is related to interactions between individual body size and thermoregulation, then larger bodied birds (males) should be found in colder sites (body size hypothesis). Males may also winter closer to breeding grounds to reduce migration distance for early arrival at breeding sites (arrival timing hypothesis). Finally, males may be socially dominant over females, and thus exclude females from high‐quality wintering sites (social dominance hypothesis). We found support for the body size hypothesis, in that colder and snowier weather predicted both larger body size and higher proportions of males banded. Direct tracking revealed that males did not winter significantly closer to their breeding site, despite being slightly further north on average than females from the same breeding population. We found some evidence for social dominance, in that females tended to carry more fat than males, potentially indicating lower habitat quality for females. Global climatic warming may reduce temperature constraints on females and smaller‐bodied males, resulting in broad‐scale changes in distributional patterns. Whether this has repercussions for individual fitness, and therefore population demography, is an important area of future research.     

The effects of rainfall on different components of seasonal fecundity in a tropical forest passerine

Seasonal fecundity is a composite metric that is determined by component parameters such as clutch size, nest survival and re‐nesting probability. Many of these component parameters are known to vary with environmental conditions, in particular rainfall prior to or during the breeding season. In some species, seasonal fecundity is positively related to rainfall, but little is known about which component parameters of seasonal fecundity respond most strongly to rainfall. We used intensive nest monitoring of a multi‐brooded tropical forest passerine, the Montserrat Oriole Icterus oberi, to examine the effects of rainfall during the pre‐breeding season on component parameters of annual fecundity. We monitored all nests of a total of 42 pairs over 5 years in which rainfall varied substantially. We then related clutch size, nest survival, onset and length of the breeding season, re‐nesting probability and re‐nesting interval to pre‐breeding season rainfall using generalized linear mixed models that accounted for random variation across sites and individual pairs, and incorporated other variables known to affect the response. Higher pre‐breeding season rainfall led to an increase in clutch size and a decrease in re‐nesting interval, but nest survival, re‐nesting probability and length of the breeding season were not affected by variation in rainfall. The onset of the breeding season was delayed in very dry years. We conclude that higher rainfall is likely to increase food availability and thus body condition of female Montserrat Orioles, leading to an increase in fecundity due to larger clutch sizes.     

A quadratic correlation between long‐term mean group size and group density in a cooperatively breeding passerine

Both mean group size (MGS) and mean group density (MGD) are critical indices to characterize a population of cooperatively breeding birds. When a population reaches its carrying capacity, both long‐term MGS and long‐term MGD will remain relatively stable. However, there has been little study of how these two variables relate. The Masked laughingthrush Garrulax perspicillatus is a cooperatively breeding bird living in fragmented habitats. During 2010 and 2012‐2016, we used song playback to observe and confirm the group sizes and territory ranges of the birds and the data of bird presence to determine habitat suitability. By grouping the nearest territories according to their geographical coordinates, we divided the whole study area into 12 subareas and the whole population into 12 subpopulations. Then, we calculated both MGS and MGD for different time durations for each subpopulation. Finally, using MGD as independent variable and MGS as the dependent variable, we explored the correlations between MGS and MGD by fitting quadratic functions and modeling quadratic regression. Both MGS and MGD were averaged for different time durations and were cross‐related. Our results show that the MGS for more than 2 years significantly correlated with MGD for more than 3 years in a reverse parabolic shape, differing from that of short‐term effects. Our findings suggest that long‐term MGD is a better predictor of long‐term habitat quality and that long‐term MGS is determined by long‐term habitat quality in Masked Laughingthrushes. Based on above findings, we can infer that: (1) Long‐term habitat quality determines the long‐term MGS, but it sets no prerequisite for the status and source of group members; (2) Long‐term MGS in certain populations is adapted to the corresponding level of long‐term habitat quality, it facilitates us to predict the helper effects on current or future survival or reproduction in different situations. These findings and inferences are both helpful for us to understand the evolution of cooperative breeding.     

Density‐dependent survival and recruitment in a long‐distance Palaearctic migrant,the Sand Martin Riparia riparia

Long‐term studies can provide powerful insights into the relative importance of different demographic and environmental factors determining avian population dynamics. Here we use 23 years of capture–mark–recapture data (1981–2003) to estimate recruitment and survival rates for a Sand Martin Riparia riparia population in Cheshire, NW England. Inter‐annual variation in recruitment and adult survival was positively related to rainfall in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, but unrelated to weather conditions on the breeding grounds. After allowing for the effects of African rainfall, both demographic rates were negatively density‐dependent: adult survival was related to the size of the western European Sand Martin population (probably reflecting competition for resources in the shared wintering grounds) while recruitment was related to the size of the local study population in Cheshire (potentially reflecting competition for nesting sites or food). Local population size was more sensitive to variation in adult survival than to variation in recruitment, and an increase in population size after 1995 was driven mainly by the impact of more favourable conditions in the African wintering grounds on survival rates of adults. Overwinter survival in this long‐distance Palaearctic migrant is determined partly by the amount of suitable wetland foraging habitat in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds (which is limited by the extent of summer rainfall) and partly by the number of birds exploiting that habitat.     

Influence of stochastic processes and catastrophic events on the reproductive dynamics of the endangered Maroon‐fronted Parrot Rhynchopsitta terrisi

Stochastic and catastrophic events may strongly impact the dynamics of wild populations. Annual fluctuations in rainfall may affect parrot populations, but few studies address the impact of other stochastic or catastrophic events on their population dynamics. The Maroon‐fronted Parrot Rhynchopsitta terrisi is an endangered species that nests colonially in cavities and crevices in limestone cliffs. From 1995 to 2010, we quantified Parrot attendance at nesting colonies throughout its breeding range, and reproductive output of nesting Parrots from 1997 to 2010 at the two most important nesting colonies. There was significant variation among colonies in the number of cavities occupied by Parrots each year. Rainfall significantly influenced both the number of occupied cavities and productivity, which declined after very dry years. Natural unpredictable events such as hurricanes did not modify the nesting activity of Maroon‐fronted Parrots at breeding colonies. However, wildfires increased in dry years, negatively affecting attendance at breeding colonies. The Maroon‐fronted Parrot may overcome the impacts of climatic variability, natural stochastic processes, and human‐induced catastrophic events by using nesting colonies as a network of resources throughout the breeding range. Given the current trends in climate change, it is likely the species may suffer stronger and more frequent unpredictable catastrophic events, potentially putting at risk its survival in the long term.     

Comparison of population genetic estimates amongst wild,F1 and F2 cultured abalone (Haliotis midae)

Haliotis midae is South Africa's most important aquaculture species. The reproduction cycle is currently not closed as many farms rely on wild‐caught broodstock for seed production. However, there is an increasing interest in genetic improvement in commercial stocks, with a growing number of producers implementing selective breeding strategies. High throughput commercial production and mass spawning make it difficult to maintain breeding records; therefore, mostly mass selection is practised. The high fecundity and unequal parental contributions also often lead to increased levels of inbreeding. This study therefore aimed to assess the genetic effects of such breeding practices on commercial populations of H. midae. Using microsatellite loci, the genetic properties of a wild, an F1 and an F2 population were estimated and compared. Although there was no significant loss of genetic diversity amongst the cultured populations in comparison with the wild progenitor population, there was low‐to‐moderate genetic differentiation between populations. Relatedness amongst the F2 population was significant, and the rate of inbreeding was high. The effective population size for the F2 (±50) was also comparatively small with respect to the wild (∞) and F1 (±470) populations. These results suggest that farms need to give caution to breeding practices beyond the first (F1) generation and aim to increase effective population sizes and minimise inbreeding to ensure long‐term genetic gain and productivity. This study also confirms the usefulness of population genetic analyses for commercial breeding and stock management in the absence of extensive pedigree records.