蒙古扁桃潜在地理分布对气候变化的响应

为了解蒙古高原第三纪孑遗珍稀濒危物种蒙古扁桃（Amygdalus mongolica）潜在分布特征及其对未来气候变化的响应,利用121个蒙古扁桃种群分布点数据,选取气候和土壤变量,通过在R软件Biomod2建模平台构建物种综合适宜生境模型（CHS）,模拟当前气候条件和预测未来两个时期（2050S和2090S）共3种不同气候情景下（SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5）蒙古扁桃的潜在分布、时空演变特征及适宜生境迁移。结果显示：气候适宜性模型（）的TSS>0.75,分布限制模型（L_i ）的受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）>0.90,表明选择综合适宜生境模型能精确地模拟不同气候情景蒙古扁桃潜在地理分布特征。当前气候条件下蒙古扁桃的适宜生境面积为64.00万^{km2,占全国总面积的6.67%,主要分布于蒙甘宁等地,少量分布于青海、新疆、陕西、山西、河北等地。未来（2050S、2090S）SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5三种气候情景下,蒙古扁桃的适宜生境面积均呈现出减少趋势,且2090S不同气候情景下适宜生境面积均小于2050S。蒙古扁桃适宜生境质心整体上有逐步向西和向高纬度地区迁移的趋势。}     

气候变化情景下茶丽纹象甲在中国的潜在适生区预测

茶丽纹象甲Myllocerinus aurolineatus Voss是茶树上重要的食叶性害虫之一,近年在中国各大产茶区广泛发生,并在局部茶园暴发成灾.本研究通过搜集整理茶丽纹象甲在中国的分布点数据,利用MaxEnt模型预测其在中国当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在适生区,并确定影响其潜在分布的主导环境变量.结果表明:模型重复运行10次的平均AUC值为0.923,标准差为0.007,预测效果表现为非常好.当前气候条件下,茶丽纹象甲的潜在适生区均主要集中在中国华东、华中、华南、西南大部分地区,总适生区面积为247.18万km2.未来气候情景下总适生区面积逐步增加,适生区边界沿当前适生区继续向北扩张,最北扩散至吉林省.在2061-2080年SSP5_85情景下总适生区面积达到最大,为255.59万km2,占中国总面积的26.62％.影响茶丽纹象甲潜在适生区分布的主导环境变量是最干月份降水量、年平均降水量、最冷月最低温、昼夜温差与年温差比值.因此研究当前及未来不同气候情景下茶丽纹象甲的潜在适生区变化,可为其监测预警和制定防控方案提供科学依据,有效防止其大范围扩散造成更大危害.     

气候变化背景下中国冷杉属植物地理分布模拟分析

中国是世界上冷杉属（Abies Mill.）植物种类最为丰富、分布地域最广的国家,也是研究冷杉属植物分布成因与规律的关键地区。本文通过中国数字植物标本馆、全球生物多样性信息数据库和相关文献三种途径收集我国冷杉属植物的地理分布数据,结合当前和未来气候情景,应用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）模拟冷杉属植物的潜在分布,并使用GIS的空间分析功能做生境适宜性分析,评估我国各地区对冷杉属植物的保护能力。结果显示：（1）四川西南部、云南北部、西藏自治区东南部是我国冷杉属植物分布的热点地区;（2）在未来气候变化情景下,我国冷杉属植物的适宜生境面积将明显减少;（3）适宜生境在未来有向北迁移的趋势;（4）就各地区保护能力而言,在当前气候情景下,云南省的保护能力最高,在未来,我国西部地区的保护能力呈上升趋势,中部和东部地区呈下降趋势。本研究可为冷杉属植物的保护工作提供一定的理论依据和参考价值。     

Should conservation strategies consider spatial generality? Farmland birds show regional not national patterns of habitat association

A key assumption underlying any management practice implemented to aid wildlife conservation is that it will have similar effects on target species across the range it is applied. However, this basic assumption is rarely tested. We show that predictors [nearly all associated with agri-environment scheme (AES) options known to affect European birds] had similar effects for 11 bird species on sites with differing farming practice (pastoral vs. mixed farming) or which differed in the density at which the species was found. However, predictors from sites in one geographical region tended to have different effects in other areas suggesting that AES options targeted at a regional scale are more likely to yield beneficial results for farmland birds than options applied uniformly in national schemes. Our study has broad implications for designing conservation strategies at an appropriate scale, which we discuss.     

Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (T_b) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key – but often biologically unreasonable – assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced T_b. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage‐specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with T_b, to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change.