Changes in autumn senescence in northern hemisphere deciduous trees: a meta-analysis of autumn phenology studies

Background and Aims Many individual studies have shown that the timing of leaf senescence in boreal and temperate deciduous forests in the northern hemisphere is influenced by rising temperatures, but there is limited consensus on the magnitude, direction and spatial extent of this relationship.Methods A meta-analysis was conducted of published studies from the peer-reviewed literature that reported autumn senescence dates for deciduous trees in the northern hemisphere, encompassing 64 publications with observations ranging from 1931 to 2010.Key Results Among the meteorological measurements examined, October temperatures were the strongest predictors of date of senescence, followed by cooling degree-days, latitude, photoperiod and, lastly, total monthly precipitation, although the strength of the relationships differed between high- and low-latitude sites. Autumn leaf senescence has been significantly more delayed at low (25° to 49°N) than high (50° to 70°N) latitudes across the northern hemisphere, with senescence across high-latitude sites more sensitive to the effects of photoperiod and low-latitude sites more sensitive to the effects of temperature. Delays in leaf senescence over time were stronger in North America compared with Europe and Asia.Conclusions The results indicate that leaf senescence has been delayed over time and in response to temperature, although low-latitude sites show significantly stronger delays in senescence over time than high-latitude sites. While temperature alone may be a reasonable predictor of the date of leaf senescence when examining a broad suite of sites, it is important to consider that temperature-induced changes in senescence at high-latitude sites are likely to be constrained by the influence of photoperiod. Ecosystem-level differences in the mechanisms that control the timing of leaf senescence may affect both plant community interactions and ecosystem carbon storage as global temperatures increase over the next century.     

Evidence of increased net ecosystem productivity associated with a longer vegetated season in a deciduous forest in south‐central Indiana,USA

Observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon and its biophysical drivers have been collected at the AmeriFlux site in the Morgan‐Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana, USA since 1998. Thus, this is one of the few deciduous forest sites in the world, where a decadal analysis on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) trends is possible. Despite the large interannual variability in NEP, the observations show a significant increase in forest productivity over the past 10 years (by an annual increment of about 10 g C m^?2 yr^?1). There is evidence that this trend can be explained by longer vegetative seasons, caused by extension of the vegetative activity in the fall. Both phenological and flux observations indicate that the vegetative season extended later in the fall with an increase in length of about 3 days yr^?1 for the past 10 years. However, these changes are responsible for only 50% of the total annual gain in forest productivity in the past decade. A negative trend in air and soil temperature during the winter months may explain an equivalent increase in NEP through a decrease in ecosystem respiration.     

气候变化对温带植物春季开花-展叶物候间隔的影响

气候变暖导致温带植物春季物候显著提前,影响陆地生态系统结构和功能。开花时间是决定植物繁殖和更新的重要因素,以往的研究主要关注气候变化对春季展叶或者开花等单一物候事件的影响,\"开花-展叶\"时间间隔对气候变化的响应受到的关注较少,深刻理解植物展叶和开花时间及其间隔对气候变化的响应差异对于理解生态系统对气候变化响应和生物多样性维持机制具有重要意义。以两个先开花后展叶植物迎春(Jasminum nudiflorum)和榆叶梅(Amygdalus triloba)为研究对象,通过野外剪枝和气候变化模拟实验探究了春季温度、光周期和冬季冷激对植物春季开花、展叶速度及其时间间隔的影响。研究结果表明,在升温2℃、5℃、10℃条件下,春季升温显著加快了两种植物春季展叶和开花的速度,迎春和榆叶梅的展叶速度分别平均缩短了(8.2±1.2)d和(3.9±1.4)d,开花速度分别平均缩短了(1.1±0.8)d和(5.0±1.4)d。冬季冷激增加加快了两种植物展叶速度,但对开花速度没有显著影响。此外,春季升温缩短了迎春的\"开花-展叶\"时间间隔,平均缩短了(17.0±1.2)d,对榆叶梅无显著影响。冬季冷激增加显著缩短了两个植物\"开花-展叶\"时间间隔,高冷激处理下迎春和榆叶梅的\"开花-展叶\"时间间隔分别比低冷激处理缩短了(7.8±0.9)d和(4.1±1.4)d。光周期对两种植物开花和展叶速度及其间隔的影响均不显著。研究揭示了植物春季展叶、开花速度及其间隔对气候变化的响应规律,对于揭示植物营养组织和生殖组织的资源分配过程,维持生态系统稳定性具有重要意义。     

Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas‐fir

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures (‘forcing’) typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures (‘chilling’) while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height‐ and diameter‐growth initiation in coast Douglas‐fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field‐based and controlled‐environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, toward lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter‐growth initiation than height‐growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas‐fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution.     

气候变化对北京常见树种春季萌芽的影响——基于控制实验研究

气候变化对植物物候产生了重要影响,春季萌芽时间的变化不仅会通过改变植物的光合作用影响碳汇能力,还会通过改变群落内的种间关系影响生态系统结构和功能。因此,掌握群落内不同树种春季萌芽对气候变化的响应对于深刻理解物候时间位分化、认识陆地生态系统碳水循环和能量平衡具有重要意义。为提高春季物候模型的预测精度,阐明气候变化对不同树种春季萌芽的影响,以鹅耳枥(Carpinus turczaninowii)、黑桦(Betula dahurica)、华北落叶松(Larix principis-rupprechtii)、糠椴(Tilia mandshurica)和元宝枫(Acer truncatum)5个温带森林的典型树种为研究对象,通过剪枝实验分析了冬季冷激、春季温度和光周期对枝条春季萌芽时间的影响。结果表明,温度升高和冷激增加显著提前了所有树种的春季萌芽时间,从5℃到20℃,春季萌芽时间平均提前了54.5 d;在较高的冷激条件下,春季萌芽时间平均缩短了17.8 d;光周期对各树种春季萌芽时间均没有显著影响,8 h和16 h光周期条件下各树种平均萌芽时间分别为30.3和30.5 d。此外,随着温度升高,...     

Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982–2006

Shifts in the timing of spring phenology are a central feature of global change research. Long‐term observations of plant phenology have been used to track vegetation responses to climate variability but are often limited to particular species and locations and may not represent synoptic patterns. Satellite remote sensing is instead used for continental to global monitoring. Although numerous methods exist to extract phenological timing, in particular start‐of‐spring (SOS), from time series of reflectance data, a comprehensive intercomparison and interpretation of SOS methods has not been conducted. Here, we assess 10 SOS methods for North America between 1982 and 2006. The techniques include consistent inputs from the 8 km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer NDVIg dataset, independent data for snow cover, soil thaw, lake ice dynamics, spring streamflow timing, over 16 000 individual measurements of ground‐based phenology, and two temperature‐driven models of spring phenology. Compared with an ensemble of the 10 SOS methods, we found that individual methods differed in average day‐of‐year estimates by ±60 days and in standard deviation by ±20 days. The ability of the satellite methods to retrieve SOS estimates was highest in northern latitudes and lowest in arid, tropical, and Mediterranean ecoregions. The ordinal rank of SOS methods varied geographically, as did the relationships between SOS estimates and the cryospheric/hydrologic metrics. Compared with ground observations, SOS estimates were more related to the first leaf and first flowers expanding phenological stages. We found no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground‐ or model‐based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS trends could be detected for only 12% of North America and were divided between trends towards both earlier and later spring.