Many to flower, few to fruit: the reproductive biology of Hamamelis virginiana (Hamamelidaceae)

Hamamelis virginiana flowers from late September to late November. In 1977, we began studying the reproductive biology of this eastern North American arborescent shrub by examining floral phenology and rewards, pollen-ovule ratios, breeding system, pollination, pollinator and resource limitation, and seed dispersal. The homogamous, self-incompatible flowers emit a faint odor, bear nectar with sucrose ratios typical of bee- and fly-pollinated flowers, and produce abundant sticky pollen. Flowers were visited infrequently by insects representing six orders. Flies were the most common floral visitors, specifically members of the genus Bradysia, but small bees also carried high percentages of Hamamelis pollen. Despite high pollen/ovule ratios (11?445 grains/ovule), bees and flies are likely pollinators, as experiments indicate wind pollination is less likely. Pollen quantity and resource availability did not appear to limit reproductive output, but pollen quality did. Tests of >40?000 flowers showed natural fruit set to be <1%. The flowering time, breeding system, and clumped distribution of plants, likely due in part to limited seed dispersal, combine to yield this remarkably low fruit set. Because all other species of Hamamelis flower from late winter to early summer, it may be that H. virginiana evolved a fall flowering phenology to avoid competition for pollinators with the closely related H. vernalis.     

Exploring the causes of variation in phenology and morphology in Mediterranean geophytes: a genus-wide study of Cyclamen

The phenology and morphology of Mediterranean plants are constrained by drought in summer and cold temperatures in winter. In this study we examine how climatic factors and phylogenetic constraints have shaped variation in the phenology and morphology of 17 species of the genus Cyclamen cultivated in uniform garden conditions. We quantify the extent to which traits differ among subgenera and thus represent conserved traits within evolutionary lineages. We also explore whether leaf, flowering and seed-release phenology are correlated among species, and thus whether variation in flowering phenology results from selection on dispersal phenology. Our results show a significant influence of subgenus membership on leaf and flowering phenology but not on morphological traits or the timing of seed release. Among-species variation in foliage height, leaf size and seed mass (but not in floral traits) is correlated with chromosome number. Leaf traits show that species with a shorter vegetative period have a higher capacity for resource acquisition. Major phenological shifts, i.e. spring vs. autumn flowering and a decoupling of leaf and flower phenology in autumnal flowering species, thus occurred prior to the diversification of species in each subgenus and not as a response to selection on dispersal timing. Leaf and flowering phenology illustrate a gradient of strategies from autumn flowering in the absence of leaves (hysteranthous species) to spring flowering with fully developed foliage (synanthous species). In the former, flowering is uncoupled from resource acquisition by simultaneous photosynthesis, indicative that hysteranthy is a response to temporal unpredictability in the onset of rain after the summer drought. Our results support the idea that whereas leaf development is controlled primarily by moisture availability and secondarily by temperature, flowering is temperature dependent, above a minimum moisture threshold. © 2004 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2004, 145 , 469–484.     

Pollen dispersal by <Emphasis Type="Italic">Artemisia tridentata</Emphasis> (Asteraceae)

While the biophysics of anemophilous pollen dispersal is understood in principle, empirical studies for testing such principles are rare, particularly in native ecosystems. This paper describes mechanisms underlying the dispersal of Artemisia pollen in a Wyoming sagebrush steppe. The relationships between meteorological variables and pollen flux were defined during the 1999 Artemisia flowering season, and detailed processes at the individual plant level were experimentally tested in the field in 2000. Results indicated that Artemisia pollen presentation is continuous but with early morning maxima. Atmospheric pollen concentrations and potential dispersal rates are controlled at diurnal time scales by individual flower development together with characteristic changes in temperature/humidity and wind speeds, at multi-day scales by frontal weather patterns, and at week-long scales by flowering phenology.     

Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records

The pace of climate change in the Arctic is dramatic, with temperatures rising at a rate double the global average. The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often temperature dependent and tends to advance as the climate warms. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations can provide historical phenology records and have been used, on a localised scale, to predict species’ phenological sensitivity to climate change. Conducting similar localised studies in the Canadian Arctic, however, poses a challenge where the collection of herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations have been temporally and spatially sporadic. We used flowering and seed dispersal times of 23 Arctic species from herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations collected from across the 2.1 million km² area of Nunavut, Canada, to determine (1) which monthly temperatures influence flowering and seed dispersal times; (2) species’ phenological sensitivity to temperature; and (3) whether flowering or seed dispersal times have advanced over the past 120 years. We tested this at different spatial scales and compared the sensitivity in different regions of Nunavut. Broadly speaking, this research serves as a proof of concept to assess whether phenology–climate change studies using historic data can be conducted at large spatial scales. Flowering times and seed dispersal time were most strongly correlated with June and July temperatures, respectively. Seed dispersal times have advanced at double the rate of flowering times over the past 120 years, reflecting greater late‐summer temperature rises in Nunavut. There is great diversity in the flowering time sensitivity to temperature of Arctic plant species, suggesting climate change implications for Arctic ecological communities, including altered community composition, competition, and pollinator interactions. Intraspecific temperature sensitivity and warming trends varied markedly across Nunavut and could result in greater changes in some parts of Nunavut than in others.     

EFFECTS OF DISPLAY SIZE,FLOWERING PHENOLOGY,AND NECTAR AVAILABILITY ON EFFECTIVE VISITATION FREQUENCY IN COMPARETTIA FALCATA (ORCHIDACEAE)

Comparettia falcata is an epiphytic, neotropical orchid that produces nectar as a pollinator reward. In Puerto Rico, C. falcata is allogamous and pollinated by the endemic hummingbird Chlorostilbon maugaeus. Autogamous pollinations are possible, but may result in reduced fruit set. For the 1989 and 1990 flowering seasons, the probability of pollinarium removals and natural pollinations increased with individual inflorescence display size. However, the frequency of effective pollinator visits was independent of flowering phenology in both years. A positive correlation between inflorescence size and reproductive success occurred in 1990 but not in 1989. In 1990 plants produced longer spurs, a higher standing crop of nectar, and a more concentrated nectar than in 1989. There was no relation between nectar availability (= standing crop of nectar) and sugar concentration in either year. Nectar availability and sugar concentration did not vary among the first four flowers of an inflorescence in either season. Nectar availability was not a good predictor of effective visitation. Comparettia falcata has a higher natural fruit set than tropical deceptive orchids, suggesting that pollinator visitation may be enhanced by nectar reward. The small, dilute nectar volumes secreted by C. falcata may benefit the plant by increasing interplant pollinator movement and pollen dispersal.     

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate‐induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.     

Phenological change in a spring ephemeral: implications for pollination and plant reproduction

Climate change has had numerous ecological effects, including species range shifts and altered phenology. Altering flowering phenology often affects plant reproduction, but the mechanisms behind these changes are not well‐understood. To investigate why altering flowering phenology affects plant reproduction, we manipulated flowering phenology of the spring herb Claytonia lanceolata (Portulacaceae) using two methods: in 2011–2013 by altering snow pack (snow‐removal vs. control treatments), and in 2013 by inducing flowering in a greenhouse before placing plants in experimental outdoor arrays (early, control, and late treatments). We measured flowering phenology, pollinator visitation, plant reproduction (fruit and seed set), and pollen limitation. Flowering occurred approx. 10 days earlier in snow‐removal than control plots during all years of snow manipulation. Pollinator visitation patterns and strength of pollen limitation varied with snow treatments, and among years. Plants in the snow removal treatment were more likely to experience frost damage, and frost‐damaged plants suffered low reproduction despite lack of pollen limitation. Plants in the snow removal treatment that escaped frost damage had higher pollinator visitation rates and reproduction than controls. The results of the array experiment supported the results of the snow manipulations. Plants in the early and late treatments suffered very low reproduction due either to severe frost damage (early treatment) or low pollinator visitation (late treatment) relative to control plants. Thus, plants face tradeoffs with advanced flowering time. While early‐flowering plants can reap the benefits of enhanced pollination services, they do so at the cost of increased susceptibility to frost damage that can overwhelm any benefit of flowering early. In contrast, delayed flowering results in dramatic reductions in plant reproduction through reduced pollination. Our results suggest that climate change may constrain the success of early‐flowering plants not through plant‐pollinator mismatch but through the direct impacts of extreme environmental conditions.     

MigClim: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Aim Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distributions using models based on ecological niche theory, but most of them have ignored dispersal‐limitations, assuming dispersal to be either unlimited or null. Depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under‐ or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of ‘potentially suitable’ and ‘potentially colonizable’ habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed Mig Clim, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. Mig Clim implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, landscape fragmentation or long‐distance dispersal. Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Using our Mig Clim model, several simulations were run for two virtual species by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the 100‐year period 2001–2100 and three different IPCC‐based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Results of dispersal‐limited projections were compared with unlimited and no‐dispersal projections. Results Our simulations indicate that: (1) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using Mig Clim can differ significantly (up to more than 95% difference in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (2) this divergence increases under more extreme climate warming scenarios and over longer time periods; and (3) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be as large as the one related to dispersal parameters. Main conclusions Accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections of species distribution under climate change scenarios.     

An ecoregion assessment of projected tree species vulnerabilities in western North America through the 21st century

Forest ecosystems across western North America will likely see shifts in both tree species dominance and composition over the rest of this century in response to climate change. Our objective in this study was to identify which ecological regions might expect the greatest changes to occur. We used the process‐based growth model 3‐PG, to provide estimates of tree species responses to changes in environmental conditions and to evaluate the extent that species are resilient to shifts in climate over the rest of this century. We assessed the vulnerability of 20 tree species in western North America using the Canadian global circulation model under three different emission scenarios. We provided detailed projections of species shifts by including soil maps that account for the spatial variation in soil water availability and soil fertility as well as by utilizing annual climate projections of monthly changes in air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit and frost at a spatial resolution of one km. Projected suitable areas for tree species were compared to their current ranges based on observations at >40 000 field survey plots. Tree species were classified as vulnerable if environmental conditions projected in the future appear outside that of their current distribution ≥70% of the time. We added a migration constraint that limits species dispersal to <200 m yr^?1 to provide more realistic projections on species distributions. Based on these combinations of constraints, we predicted the greatest changes in the distribution of dominant tree species to occur within the Northwest Forested Mountains and the highest number of tree species stressed will likely be in the North American Deserts. Projected climatic changes appear especially unfavorable for species in the subalpine zone, where major shifts in composition may lead to the emergence of new forest types.     

Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades

Recent changes in climate have led to significant shifts in phenology, with many studies demonstrating advanced phenology in response to warming temperatures. The rate of temperature change is especially high in the Arctic, but this is also where we have relatively little data on phenological changes and the processes driving these changes. In order to understand how Arctic plant species are likely to respond to future changes in climate, we monitored flowering phenology in response to both experimental and ambient warming for four widespread species in two habitat types over 21 years. We additionally used long‐term environmental records to disentangle the effects of temperature increase and changes in snowmelt date on phenological patterns. While flowering occurred earlier in response to experimental warming, plants in unmanipulated plots showed no change or a delay in flowering over the 21‐year period, despite more than 1 °C of ambient warming during that time. This counterintuitive result was likely due to significantly delayed snowmelt over the study period (0.05–0.2 days/yr) due to increased winter snowfall. The timing of snowmelt was a strong driver of flowering phenology for all species – especially for early‐flowering species – while spring temperature was significantly related to flowering time only for later‐flowering species. Despite significantly delayed flowering phenology, the timing of seed maturation showed no significant change over time, suggesting that warmer temperatures may promote more rapid seed development. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the specific environmental cues that drive species’ phenological responses as well as the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation when forecasting phenology over the coming decades. As demonstrated here, the effects of altered snowmelt patterns can counter the effects of warmer temperatures, even to the point of generating phenological responses opposite to those predicted by warming alone.     

Fecundity limits in Frangula alnus (Rhamnaceae) relict populations at the species’ southern range margin

The geographic range of many temperate plant species is constrained by climate, but it remains little known how climate affects population performance at low-latitude range margins. This study investigated the reproduction of the Eurasian tree Frangula alnus in relict populations near its southwestern range limit in southern Spain. The aim was to identify the principal stages and causes of ovule loss experienced by these marginal populations. More than 6,800 flowers were monitored over 2 years, insect observations and different experiments were carried out to assess levels of pollen and resource limitation, as well as the influence of flowering phenology on seed production. Most ovule losses occurred during flower anthesis and were due to strong cross-pollen limitation. Fruit set was affected by tree size, light regime and flowering phenology, probably through their effects on pollinator behaviour. Fruit set was almost zero throughout the first half of the flowering season. Then it increased paralleling changes in pollinator abundance but was soon overridden by increasing ovule desiccation due to summer drought. Successful seed production was mostly confined to a brief period near the end of the flowering season. Adverse weather during this period in the second study year resulted in a threefold bud and flower mortality and a 50% decrease of fruit production. Spring rainfalls in southwestern Spain have diminished more than 30% through past decades leading to an earlier onset of summer drought. This trend and its adverse effects on seed production may contribute to explaining the recent decline of F. alnus at its southwestern range limit.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at     

Floral nectar sugar composition and flowering phenology of the food plants used by the western pygmy possum, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cercartetus concinnus</Emphasis>, at Innes National Park,South Australia

The western pygmy possum (Cercartetus concinnus) is a small nocturnal marsupial that relies primarily on the nectar and pollen of myrtaceous species at Innes National Park and may occasionally also ingest invertebrates. This study confirmed plant utilization by C. concinnus using scat samples and pollen swabs, and investigated the flowering phenology of dietary plants to determine resource availability. We compared nectar composition between day and night and analyzed nectar sugar production for dietary species. Pollen swabs and scats suggested that C. concinnus relied primarily on the nectar and pollen of Kingscote mallee, Eucalyptus rugosa (76.8% of grains counted in combined scat samples) at Innes National Park, when available; only one of 30 scat samples contained numerous moth scales. The nectars of the species investigated showed marked differences in their composition, but only Melaleuca gibbosa and M. halmaturorum sugar composition changed between day and night. The nectar sugar ratio of E. rugosa differed from those of most other species investigated. C. concinnus may select this plant’s flowers because its nectar is relatively high in hexose sugars. Although E. diversifolia was abundant, its flowers were mostly ignored by possums, perhaps because the nectar in these flowers was proportionately much richer in sucrose than other species’. E. rugosa’s flowering index (calculated from flower load and canopy size) was greatest in December. Six of the seven eucalypt species flowered between November and April; for half of the year pygmy possums must find other resources.     

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.     

Prairie plant phenology driven more by temperature than moisture in climate manipulations across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest,USA

Plant phenology will likely shift with climate change, but how temperature and/or moisture regimes will control phenological responses is not well understood. This is particularly true in Mediterranean climate ecosystems where the warmest temperatures and greatest moisture availability are seasonally asynchronous. We examined plant phenological responses at both the population and community levels to four climate treatments (control, warming, drought, and warming plus additional precipitation) embedded within three prairies across a 520 km latitudinal Mediterranean climate gradient within the Pacific Northwest, USA. At the population level, we monitored flowering and abundances in spring 2017 of eight range‐restricted focal species planted both within and north of their current ranges. At the community level, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) measured from fall 2016 to summer 2018 to estimate peak live biomass, senescence, seasonal patterns, and growing season length. We found that warming exerted a stronger control than our moisture manipulations on phenology at both the population and community levels. Warming advanced flowering regardless of whether a species was within or beyond its current range. Importantly, many of our focal species had low abundances, particularly in the south, suggesting that establishment, in addition to phenological shifts, may be a strong constraint on their future viability. At the community level, warming advanced the date of peak biomass regardless of site or year. The date of senescence advanced regardless of year for the southern and central sites but only in 2018 for the northern site. Growing season length contracted due to warming at the southern and central sites (~3 weeks) but was unaffected at the northern site. Our results emphasize that future temperature changes may exert strong influence on the timing of a variety of plant phenological events, especially those events that occur when temperature is most limiting, even in seasonally water‐limited Mediterranean ecosystems.     

Phenological plasticity is a poor predictor of subalpine plant population performance following experimental climate change

Phenological shifts, changes in the seasonal timing of life cycle events, are among the best documented responses of species to climate change. However, the consequences of these phenological shifts for population dynamics remain unclear. Population growth could be enhanced if species that advance their phenology benefit from longer growing seasons and gain a pre-emptive advantage in resource competition. However, it might also be reduced if phenological advances increase exposure to stresses, such as herbivores and, in colder climates, harsh abiotic conditions early in the growing season. We exposed subalpine grasslands to ~3 K of warming by transplanting intact turfs from 2000 m to 1400 m elevation in the eastern Swiss Alps, with turfs transplanted within the 2000 m site acting as a control. In the first growing season after transplantation, we recorded species’ flowering phenology at both elevations. We also measured species’ cover change for three consecutive years as a measure of plant performance. We used models to estimate species’ phenological plasticity (the response of flowering time to the change in climate) and analysed its relationship with cover changes following climate change. The phenological plasticity of the 18 species in our study varied widely but was unrelated to their changes in cover. Moreover, early- and late-flowering species did not differ in their cover response to warming, nor in the relationship between cover changes and phenological plasticity. These results were replicated in a similar transplant experiment within the same subalpine community, established one year earlier and using larger turfs. We discuss the various ecological processes that can be affected by phenological shifts, and argue why the population-level consequences of these shifts are likely to be species- and context-specific. Our results highlight the importance of testing assumptions about how warming-induced changes in phenotypic traits, like phenology, impact population dynamics.     

The potential impact of global warming on the efficacy of field margins sown for the conservation of bumble-bees

Climate change is expected to drive species extinct by reducing their survival, reproduction and habitat. Less well appreciated is the possibility that climate change could cause extinction by changing the ecological interactions between species. If ecologists, land managers and policy makers are to manage farmland biodiversity sustainably under global climate change, they need to understand the ways in which species interact with each other as this will affect the way they respond to climate change. Here, we consider the ability of nectar flower mixtures used in field margins to provide sufficient forage for bumble-bees under future climate change. We simulated the effect of global warming on the network of plant–pollinator interactions in two types of field margin: a four-species pollen and nectar mix and a six-species wildflower mix. While periods without flowering resources and periods with no food were rare, curtailment of the field season was very common for the bumble-bees in both mixtures. The effect of this, however, could be ameliorated by adding extra species at the start and end of the flowering season. The plant species that could be used to future-proof margins against global warming are discussed.     

Bee diversity on nectarful and nectarless honey mesquites

Nectar production has been proposed as an adaptation to attract pollinators that benefit from this resource. Energetic investments may be expensive, so some species such as Prosopis glandulosa have developed a dimorphic system of nectar production, which is expected to affect floral visitor behaviour and then plant fitness. We quantified bee diversity during a 2 year period in a population of the honey mesquite in order to determine changes in bee diversity due to the presence of nectar, bee preferences to collect either nectar of pollen, and to determine between year variations of bee faunas. Floral visitors were captured at three different times of the day during the flowering seasons of 1994 and 1995, in a population of Prosopis glandulosa which has a 1:1 proportion of nectar: nectarless individuals. Pollinators were clearly distinct between nectar morphs, bee species diversity and relative abundance of visits were significantly greater on nectarful than on nectarless plants, with species on nectarless individuals being a subset of those in the nectarful morph. Our results suggest differences in the function of floral rewards (i.e., nectar and pollen) to attract floral visitors. For the Chihuahuan arid environment, mesquite provides floral rewards with ease, quantity and quality for close to 10% of all bee fauna making them important components of these communities.     

Tell me what you eat and I'll tell you when you fly: diet can predict phenological changes in response to climate change

Changes in phenology are correlated with climate change. However, we still struggle to understand the traits making species susceptible to climate change, and the implications of species' reactions for communities and food webs. Butterflies and moths are an ecologically important group that have shown pronounced phenological changes over the last decades. Tests using a > 150-year dataset from 566 European butterfly and moth species demonstrated that variation in phenological change was strongly related to traits describing plant-herbivore interactions (larval diet breadth, diet composition), and the life cycle. The results indicate that climate change related shifts in phenology are correlated with the seasonal availability and palatability of food plants. Lepidopterans feeding on herbaceous plants showed smaller shifts in flight periods but larger increases in voltinism than lepidopterans feeding on woody plants. Consequently, the effect of herbivorous lepidopterans may increase in herb-rich grassland ecosystems under warmer conditions, and not in forest ecosystems.     

Consequences of warming up a hotspot: species range shifts within a centre of bee diversity

Aim Bees are the most important pollinators of flowering plants and essential ecological keystone species contributing to the integrity of most terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we examine the potential impact of climate change on bees’ geographic range in a global biodiversity hotspot. Location South Africa with a focus on the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) diversity hotspot. Methods  Geographic ranges of 12 South African bee species representing dominant distribution types were studied, and the climate change impacts upon bees were examined with A2 and B2 climate scenarios of HadCM3 model, using MaxEnt for species distribution modelling. Results The predicted levels of climate change‐induced impacts on species ranges varied from little shifts and range expansion of 5–50% for two species to substantial range contractions between 32% and 99% in another six species. Four species show considerable range shifts. Bees of the winter rainfall area in the west of South Africa generally have smaller range sizes than in the summer rainfall area and generally show eastward range contractions toward the dry interior. Bee species prevalent in summer rainfall regions show a tendency for a south‐easterly shift in geographic range. Main conclusions The bee fauna of the CFR is identified as the most vulnerable to climate change due to the high level of endemism, the small range sizes and the island‐like isolation of the Mediterranean‐type climate region at the SW tip of Africa. For monitoring climate change impact on bees, we suggest to establish observatories in the coastal plains of the west coast that are predicted to be worst affected and areas where persistence of populations is most likely. Likely impacts of climate change on life history traits of bees (phenology, sociality, bee‐host plant synchronization) are discussed but require further investigation.     

Impacts of recent climate change on terrestrial flora and fauna: Some emerging Australian examples

The effects of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity are well known for some high‐profile Australian marine systems, including coral bleaching and kelp forest devastation. Less well‐published are the impacts of climate change being observed in terrestrial ecosystems, although ecological models have predicted substantial changes are likely. Detecting and attributing terrestrial changes to anthropogenic factors is difficult due to the ecological importance of extreme conditions, the noisy nature of short‐term data collected with limited resources, and complexities introduced by biotic interactions. Here, we provide a suite of case studies that have considered possible impacts of anthropogenic climate change on Australian terrestrial systems. Our intention is to provide a diverse collection of stories illustrating how Australian flora and fauna are likely responding to direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic climate change. We aim to raise awareness rather than be comprehensive. We include case studies covering canopy dieback in forests, compositional shifts in vegetation, positive feedbacks between climate, vegetation and disturbance regimes, local extinctions in plants, size changes in birds, phenological shifts in reproduction and shifting biotic interactions that threaten communities and endangered species. Some of these changes are direct and clear cut, others are indirect and less clearly connected to climate change; however, all are important in providing insights into the future state of terrestrial ecosystems. We also highlight some of the management issues relevant to conserving terrestrial communities and ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic climate change.