长江黄河源区湿地分布的时空变化及成因

通过整理解译1969年航片、1986年、2000年、2007年以及2013年TM影像数据,对长江黄河源区的高寒湿地分布的时空变化特征进行分析,并结合气象观测数据和人类活动状况,运用主成分分析和灰色关联度法定量分析造成高寒湿地退化的气候因素和人为因素的贡献,并揭示了高寒湿地退化与各环境因子之间的关联性。结果表明:1969年—2013年间,江河源区的高寒湿地面积减少了19.16%,各湿地类型的斑块分离度不断增大;空间上,高寒湿地的退化区主要分布在长江源区的东北部以及黄河源区的北部地区,与该区域冻土的退化有显著的一致性;1969年以来,江河源区的气候呈气温显著上升、相对湿度降低以及降水量微弱增加的暖干化趋势,湿地的退化与气候变化在时间上有明显的同步性,其中气温升高是形成湿地退化格局的主要原因,降水量和相对湿度的变化会对湿地的变化产生重要影响,尤其是对河流和湖泊的影响更为显著;此外,载畜量的变化是影响湿地变化最重要的人为因素。     

气候变化与人类活动对青藏高原湿地的影响研究进展

青藏高原是中国湿地分布最多的区域,其独特的高寒湿地对区域生态环境安全有着不可或缺的作用。梳理了青藏高原湿地变化的时空特征,基于此,重点分析了气候变化与人类活动对不同类型湿地的影响和作用机制。研究发现：(1)主导不同类型湿地变化的气候因素有差异,影响存在区域异质性。湖泊湿地主要受降水量影响,湖泊湿地在北部扩张、南部缩小的趋势与降水量的空间差异存在较强的一致性;沼泽湿地主要受气温影响,气温升高导致水分蒸发、植被群落演替,沼泽湿地向草地转化,江河源区和若尔盖高原等主要分布区域呈现退化趋势;河流湿地主要受气温影响,气温升高加速河源冰川消融、同时也增大河流蒸散发量,共同作用下河流湿地呈现北部减少、南部增加的趋势。(2)过度放牧、泥炭开采、水利建设等是影响湿地变化的主要人类活动。若尔盖高原同时存在过度放牧、泥炭开采和沟渠建设多重人类活动影响,当地沼泽湿地退化明显;柴达木盆地的人工湿地由于盐业开采迅速扩张。(3)当前研究存在数据可对比性不足、大区域尺度和野外定点持续监测数据缺乏等问题,导致对气候变化与人类活动影响机制研究不够深入。未来应加强高寒湿地定期监测与风险评估,完善高寒湿地生态系统与环境变化和...     

广西滨海区域景观格局分析及土地利用变化预测

研究滨海湿地景观动态及其发展趋势对于维持沿海地区可持续发展具有重要意义。利用移动窗口法分析广西滨海湿地景观格局时空变化,同时提取珍珠湾、茅尾海和丹兜海典型区进一步分析景观变化趋势,最后采用土地利用变化模型(Land Change Modeler,LCM)预测区域未来的景观演化趋势。结果表明,2000—2014年间,草地、乔木园地和常绿阔叶灌木林面积减少,而工业用地面积明显增加。研究区总体的景观异质性变化不大,破碎化趋势不明显。比较景观格局指数发现,边缘密度和多样性指数的空间分布特征相似,多样性指数较大的区域,边缘密度也大,并且多集中于珍珠湾、茅尾海和研究区的中东部。3个典型区的格局变化趋势相似,景观多样性指数降低而均匀度增加,其中,湿地斑块数目减少且所占面积比也减少。LCM模型结果表明,至2020年,草本湿地与森林灌丛湿地面积进一步降低,而工业用地和居民区则持续增长;其中,3个典型区土地利用变化均受到了工业发展的影响,以珍珠湾土地利用动态度最高,茅尾海其次,而丹兜海最小。当前,区域景观的变化明显降低了湿地植被的质量,加强湿地植被保护,限制工业区域的无序发展是维持区域生境完整和安全的有效途径。     

Modeling wetland plant metrics to improve the performance of vegetation-based indices of biological integrity

The objective of this study was to determine if the accuracy and precision of wetland plant indices of biological integrity (IBIs) could be improved through the use of modeling techniques. To do this, we developed a modeled vegetation IBI (MVIBI) based on metrics previously used to develop vegetation indices of biological integrity (VIBIs) for Ohio wetlands (e.g. % invasive grass, % sensitive species, shrub richness). We selected 82 emergent, forested, and shrub-dominated reference sites distributed across the State of Ohio and built Random Forest models to predict plant metric scores at reference wetlands from naturally occurring environmental features related to climate, hydrology, geology, soils, and landscape position. The models explained between 14 and 52% of the variance in the scores of 21 metrics indicating that variation in wetland plant assemblages was significantly associated with naturally occurring environmental gradients. We used principal component analysis to identify ten groups of statistically independent metrics and selected one metric from each group that discriminated most strongly between reference and most degraded sites based on t-scores. Two axes did not contain discriminating metrics so we used eight metrics in the MVIBI. Analysis of variance of reference site MVIBI scores indicated that we could use one distribution of reference site scores to assess multiple wetland types, thus eliminating the need to separately designate wetland types. We used the MVIBI to assess 170 test sites and compared the accuracy, precision, responsiveness, and sensitivity of the MVIBI to those of the original VIBIs. The MVIBI was up to twice as accurate and precise as the original VIBIs, indicating that modeling can be used to improve the performance of vegetation-based IBIs. The use of model-based IBIs for wetland plants should reduce assessment errors associated with natural variation in plant metrics and should increase confidence in wetland assessments.     

Effects of Local and Landscape Variables on Wetland Bird Habitat Use During Migration Through the Rainwater Basin

ABSTRACT Staging areas and migratory stopovers of wetland birds can function as geographic bottlenecks; common dependence among migratory wetland bird species on these sites has major implications for wetland conservation. Although 90% of playa wetlands in the Rainwater Basin (RWB) region of Nebraska, USA, have been destroyed, the area still provides essential stopover habitat for up to 10 million waterfowl each spring. Our objectives were to determine local (within wetland and immediate watershed) and landscape-scale factors influencing wetland bird abundance and species richness during spring migration at RWB playas. We surveyed 36–40 playas twice weekly in the RWB and observed approximately 1.6 million individual migratory wetland birds representing 72 species during spring migrations 2002–2004. We tested a priori hypotheses about whether local and landscape variables influenced overall species richness and abundance of geese, dabbling ducks, diving ducks, and shorebirds. Wetland area had a positive influence on goose abundance in all years, whereas percent emergent vegetation and hunting pressure had negative influences. Models predicting dabbling duck abundance differed among years; however, individual wetland area and area of semipermanent wetlands within 10 km of the study wetland consistently had a positive influence on dabbling duck abundance. Percent emergent vegetation also was a positive predictor of dabbling duck abundance in all years, indicating that wetlands with intermediate (50%) vegetation coverage have the greatest dabbling duck abundance. Shorebird abundance was positively influenced by wetland area and number of wetlands within 10 km and negatively influenced by water depth. Wetland area, water depth, and area of wetlands within 10 km were all equally important in models predicting overall species richness. Total species richness was positively influenced by wetland area and negatively influenced by water depth and area of semipermanent wetlands within 10 km. Avian species richness also was greatest in wetlands with intermediate vegetation coverage. Restoring playa hydrology should promote intermediate percent cover of emergent vegetation, which will increase use by dabbling ducks and shorebirds, and decrease snow goose (Chen caerulescens) use of these wetlands. We observed a reduction in dabbling duck abundance on wetlands open to spring snow goose hunting and recommend further investigation of the effects of this conservation order on nontarget species. Our results indicate that wildlife managers at migration stopover areas should conserve wetlands in complexes to meet the continuing and future habitat requirements of migratory birds, especially dabbling ducks, during spring migration.     

Factors Affecting Wetland Use by Spring Migrating Ducks in the Southern Prairie Pothole Region

There is increasing recognition of the importance of wetlands in the prairie pothole region (PPR) of the northern United States for stopover habitat for spring-migrating waterfowl. The quality and quantity of stopover habitat found near breeding areas can affect speed and success of migration and subsequent breeding events. Conservation and management of wetlands in the region has traditionally focused narrowly on reproductive phases of the life cycle, and little to no research has examined how ducks use a diversity of available wetlands in the region during migration. We conducted weekly surveys on 1,061 wetlands during spring 2018 and 2019 to examine factors affecting duck use of wetlands in the intensively modified southern PPR landscape of Iowa, USA, for wetland restoration and conservation strategies. We compared wetland types, which included farmed, seasonal, and semi-permanent wetlands, and lakes. The highest duck use per unit area occurred on semi-permanent wetlands, followed by seasonal, and then farmed wetlands, and lakes. Ducks were highly clustered in our study, with 75% of all use-days occurring on only 37 wetlands comprising 41% of all wetland area surveyed. We used hurdle models to examine how local and landscape factors measured within and around wetlands influenced duck use during spring migration. Multiple factors related to duck use at local and landscape scales, such as wetland area, vegetation abundance, and number of wetlands in the surrounding landscape. Among semi-permanent wetlands, local factors within wetlands were more important than landscape factors in determining duck use. Collectively, our findings suggest semi-permanent wetlands within the PPR play a key role in transitioning birds from wintering areas to breeding areas and that management of semi-permanent wetlands should promote interspersion of emergent vegetation and open water and growth of submersed aquatic plants to improve their function for migrants. © 2021 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

US forest response to projected climate‐related stress: a tolerance perspective

Although it is widely recognized that climate change will require a major spatial reorganization of forests, our ability to predict exactly how and where forest characteristics and distributions will change has been rather limited. Current efforts to predict future distribution of forested ecosystems as a function of climate include species distribution models (for fine‐scale predictions) and potential vegetation climate envelope models (for coarse‐grained, large‐scale predictions). Here, we develop and apply an intermediate approach wherein we use stand‐level tolerances of environmental stressors to understand forest distributions and vulnerabilities to anticipated climate change. In contrast to other existing models, this approach can be applied at a continental scale while maintaining a direct link to ecologically relevant, climate‐related stressors. We first demonstrate that shade, drought, and waterlogging tolerances of forest stands are strongly correlated with climate and edaphic conditions in the conterminous United States. This discovery allows the development of a tolerance distribution model (TDM), a novel quantitative tool to assess landscape level impacts of climate change. We then focus on evaluating the implications of the drought TDM. Using an ensemble of 17 climate change models to drive this TDM, we estimate that 18% of US ecosystems are vulnerable to drought‐related stress over the coming century. Vulnerable areas include mostly the Midwest United States and Northeast United States, as well as high‐elevation areas of the Rocky Mountains. We also infer stress incurred by shifting climate should create an opening for the establishment of forest types not currently seen in the conterminous United States.     

A comparison of wetland characteristics between Agricultural Conservation Easement Program and public lands wetlands in West Virginia,USA

In West Virginia, USA, there are 24 conservation easement program wetlands enrolled in the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP). These wetlands are located on private agricultural land and are passively managed. Due to their location within fragmented agricultural areas, wetlands enrolled in ACEP in West Virginia have the potential to add wetland ecosystem services in areas that are lacking these features. We evaluated ACEP wetlands compared to reference wetlands on public land in West Virginia by using surrounding land cover, vegetative cover, and wetland features and stressors such as the presence or absence of erosion, upland inclusion, algal mats, and evidence of impacts from the surrounding landscape as surrogate measurements of wetland function on 13 ACEP wetlands and 10 reference wetlands. ACEP wetlands had higher percentages of tree coverage and a higher proportion of agricultural land in the areas immediately surrounding the wetland. Reference wetlands had higher percent coverage of emergent vegetation and had a higher proportion of forest in the immediate landscape. Our findings suggest that ACEP wetlands provide valuable early successional and forested wetland cover in a state that is largely forested. Because of this, it is important to maintain and even expand ACEP in West Virginia to continue providing a valuable source of early successional wetland habitat.     

Characteristic community structure of Florida’s subtropical wetlands: the Florida wetland condition index for depressional marshes, depressional forested, and flowing water forested wetlands

Land use and land cover change has a marked affect on wetland condition, and different wetland types are affected differentially depending on many abiotic and biotic variables. To assess wetland condition, we have developed a Florida wetland condition index (FWCI) composed of indicators of community structure in the diatom, macrophyte, and macroinvertebrate assemblages for 216 wetlands (n = 74 depressional marsh, n = 118 depressional forested, n = 24 flowing water forested wetlands). Depressional wetlands located along a human disturbance gradient throughout Florida were sampled for each assemblage. Forested flowing water wetlands were sampled for macrophytes only. The landscape development intensity index (LDI) was used to quantify the human disturbance gradient. In general, human disturbance in adjacent areas had the greatest impact on depressional herbaceous wetlands, followed by depressional forested wetlands. Forested flowing water wetlands (i.e., forested strands and floodplain wetlands) were less affected by local conditions, with most of their changes in wetland condition correlated with alterations at the larger watershed scale. Strong correlations between the FWCIs and LDI index scores suggest that changes in community structure can be detected along a gradient of human land use activities adjacent to wetland ecosystems.     

Lipid catabolism of invertebrate predator indicates widespread wetland ecosystem degradation

Animals frequently undergo periods when they accumulate lipid reserves for subsequent energetically expensive activities, such as migration or breeding. During such periods, daily lipid-reserve dynamics (DLD) of sentinel species can quantify how landscape modifications affect function, health, and resilience of ecosystems. Aythya affinis (Eyton 1838; lesser scaup; diving duck) are macroinvertebrate predators; they migrate through an agriculturally dominated landscape in spring where they select wetlands with the greatest food density to refuel and accumulate lipid reserves for subsequent reproduction. We index DLD by measuring plasma-lipid metabolites of female scaup (n = 459) that were refueling at 75 spring migration stopover areas distributed across the upper Midwest, USA. We also indexed DLD for females (n = 44) refueling on a riverine site (Pool 19) south of our upper Midwest study area. We found that mean DLD estimates were significantly (P<0.05) less than zero in all ecophysiographic regions of the upper Midwest, and the greatest negative value was in the Iowa Prairie Pothole region (-31.6). Mean DLD was 16.8 at Pool 19 and was markedly greater than in any region of the upper Midwest. Our results indicate that females catabolized rather than stored lipid reserves throughout the upper Midwest. Moreover, levels of lipid catabolism are alarming, because scaup use the best quality wetlands available within a given stopover area. Accordingly, these results provide evidence of wetland ecosystem degradation across this large agricultural landscape and document affects that are carried-up through several trophic levels. Interestingly, storing of lipids by scaup at Pool 19 likely reflects similar ecosystem perturbations as observed in the upper Midwest because wetland drainage and agricultural runoff nutrifies the riverine habitat that scaup use at Pool 19. Finally, our results underscore how using this novel technique to monitor DLD, of a carefully selected sentinel species, can index ecosystem health at a landscape scale.     

Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce wetland habitat availability for many species.     

宁夏沿黄城市带湿地景观格局演变特征及驱动力

湿地作为全球生产力最高的生态系统之一,具有水净化、气候调节、碳汇等多种功能,但由于人类社会发展的胁迫和自然条件的改变,湿地流失尤为严重。为探究沿黄湿地景观格局演变规律,了解湿地资源的现状和动态变化,本研究以2000、2009、2018年3个时期Landsat卫星影像为数据源,选用景观指数、地理探测器等方法定量分析2000—2018年间宁夏沿黄城市带湿地景观格局演变特征及驱动力。结果表明: 2000—2018年,宁夏沿黄城市带湿地面积呈先增后减的趋势,湿地面积在研究前期增加了52.2 km²,增长率为8.2%,后期减少了26.8 km²,减少率为3.9%。湿地主要转出为建设用地和未利用地,转出面积分别为166.7、158.4 km²;新增湿地主要由未利用地和林草地转入,转入面积为543.1 km²。城市带湿地景观的破碎化程度呈上升趋势,但各类湿地均衡分布的态势逐渐增强,景观多样性也不断增加,景观优势种类逐渐弱化。自然要素和社会经济要素共同影响城市带湿地景观格局演变,其中,社会经济要素中的人口因素影响最显著,自然要素中的降水量、气温驱动作用明显,其他驱动力因子相对较弱但也不容忽视。     

Effects of beaver on the thermal biology of an amphibian

It is often assumed that ecological interactions happen at rapid rates relative to evolutionary change. In this study we examined the development and physiology of an amphibian ( Rana sylvatica ) from populations found in forested wetlands, and from wetlands that had been cleared by reinvading beaver ( Castor canadensis ). Embryos from beaver wetlands hatched at lower rates when raised in a shaded, common garden setting compared with embryos from forested wetlands. Larvae from beaver wetlands had higher critical thermal maxima compared with conspecifics from forested wetlands. These patterns suggest that R. sylvatica populations may have diverged rapidly (in less than 36 years) in response to changes in their environment induced by another species. Other agents of thermal change, such as anthropogenic landscape conversion or alteration of global climate, could have analogous impacts on wetland dependent species such as amphibians.     

上海市湿地景观格局时空演变与驱动机制的量化研究

基于1980-2018年上海市历史遥感数据,定量研究上海市湿地景观格局变化及其驱动机制。为此,采用Fragstats 4.2.1计算了景观格局指数,并在数据处理系统软件平台使用灰色关联系统分析了湿地景观格局与社会、经济以及自然环境之间的灰色关联度。结果表明：（1）自1980以来,上海市湿地面积持续缩减,尤其水田损失最多。截至到2018年,上海市共损失了21.06×10⁴hm²的湿地,现存湿地面积为38.22×10⁴hm²,其中人工湿地占85%,自然湿地占15%。人工湿地以水田为主,自然湿地以河流湿地为主。水田和河流斑块平均面积总体上呈波动缩小趋势。河流湿地的形状复杂性最高,其总面积在年际间缓慢缩减,平均分形维度指数年际间波动持平。水田平均分形维度指数年际间波动上升,景观形状向复杂化趋势发展。（2）1980-2010年间,湿地景观破碎化程度总体加剧,最大斑块指数呈波动下降趋势。2010年后,景观破碎化局势向好,最大斑块面积扩大。1980-2015年间,蔓延度指数呈波动下降趋势,香农多样性指数呈波动上升趋势。2015年是蔓延度指数和香农多样性指数变化的转折点。水库坑塘斑块形状较简单,年际间变化小,而且具有结构的自相似性。（3）湿地景观格局受自然、人为双重因素影响。城市扩张导致人工湿地面积减少。自然湿地的演变则主要受气温和降雨的影响。自然因素往往在较大的时空尺度上控制着湿地的景观格局变化。但随着经济的迅速发展,在较短的时间尺度上,国家政策等人为因素对景观格局的影响力逐渐增强。未来,国家对城市湿地保护政策的实施可以使湿地景观格局向好的方向演化。     

黑河中游湿地景观破碎化过程及其驱动力分析

在遥感和GIS技术支持下,基于1975-2010年长时间序列遥感影像,选取斑块密度指数(PD)、景观内部生境面积指数(IA)、斑块平均面积指数(MPS)、斑块形状破碎化指数(FS1、FS2)等具有典型生态意义的景观指数模型,系统分析了黑河中游湿地景观的破碎化过程,并结合灰色关联分析、主成分分析等方法,探讨了影响研究区湿地景观破碎化过程的各驱动因子.结果表明:近35年来,研究区湿地景观破碎化主要表现为斑块平均面积的萎缩,斑块密度的上升以及斑块形状破碎化指数的增大.整个研究时段内,研究区湿地斑块平均面积减少了48.95hm2,斑块密度的上升0.006个/hm2;导致黑河中游湿地景观破碎化发生和发展的驱动力包含自然和人文两个方面.自然因子对湿地景观破碎化进程的影响则主要体现在气温和降水上,而且气温对湿地景观破碎化进程的影响程度明显大于降水.但在1975-2010年间的这一较小时间尺度上,人类活动对湿地景观破碎化的贡献率明显高于自然因子,人类活动能力的增强以及影响范围的不断扩大是引发黑河中游湿地景观破碎化的主因.     

嫩江流域湿地生态需水量分析与预估

探讨了嫩江流域湿地生态需水量的计算方法,并对流域内不同降水频率下湿地生态需水量进行了计算。在此基础上,选择CMIP全球气候模式下RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5等3种排放情景,预测2030年、2050年和2100年嫩江流域湿地生态需水量的变化趋势。研究结果表明:不同降水频率下的流域湿地生态需水量分别为丰水年70.284亿m3,平水年118.696亿m3,枯水年169.343亿m3,反映了其与气候条件的相关性。3种排放情景下湿地生态需水量变化受到最高、最低气温和降水量变化的共同影响,其中RCP2.6情景下需水量呈先增加后减少的趋势;RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下需水量整体呈增加趋势,到2100年分别达到147.337亿m3和132.659亿m3。气候变化条件下,如何协调水资源需求间的矛盾,维持湿地生态系统健康稳定,将是未来研究关注的重点。     

Identifying nascent wetland forest conversion in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Wetlands cover large areas in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. However, their extent and distribution have not been accurately mapped. While wetland forests remain largely undisturbed, increasing threats by anthropogenic activities have been observed in areas with high population density per arable or exploitable land. The scarcity of terra firma forests in some territories of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has forced local communities to develop cropping methods that allow for cultivation in periodically flooded areas. Assessing wetlands extent and status is critical for long term conservation of these highly vulnerable ecosystems. In this study, we use multi-source and multi-resolution optical and radar remotely sensed data and elevation derived indices to map the wetlands of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Results showed that wetlands are a significant part of the landscape in the country, covering an estimated 440,000 km² or 19.2 % of the total country area. By combining the wetlands map with a previously produced land cover depiction of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a map including forested wetlands as a thematic class was derived. We investigated whether high terra firma population density and low percent remaining terra firma forest are related at the lowest administrative level (Sector); specifically, we tested these two variables as predictors of wetland forest cover loss. A polynomial regression relating population and primary terra firma forest to wetland forest cover loss yielded an r ² of 0.76, illustrating a nascent and significant land cover change dynamic. Areas most at risk for future wetland forest loss lie in the western Cuvette, and include (north–south) the Sud-Ubangi, Mongala, Equateur and Mai-Ndombe Districts. By quantifying available upland forest resources and overlaying with population density, it was possible to identify stressed areas inside of the forest domain (traditionally known for having generically high levels of forest resources). Results illustrate the need for addressing issues of wetland forest management and protection in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, especially where increasing populations are exhausting primary terra firma forest resources.     

Decadal change in wetland–woodland boundaries during the late 20th century reflects climatic trends

Wetlands are important and restricted habitats for dependent biota and play vital roles in landscape function, hydrology and carbon sequestration. They are also likely to be one of the most sensitive components of the terrestrial biosphere to global climate change. An understanding of relationships between wetland persistence and climate is imperative for predicting, mitigating and adapting to the impacts of future climate change on wetland extent and function. We investigated whether mire wetlands had contracted, expanded or remained stable during 1960–2000. We chose a study area encompassing a regional climatic gradient in southeastern Australia, specifically to avoid confounding effects of water extraction on wetland hydrology and extent. We first characterized trends in climate by examining data from local weather stations, which showed a slight increase in precipitation and marked decline in pan evaporation over the relevant period. Remote sensing of vegetation boundaries showed a marked lateral expansion of mires during 1961–1998, and a corresponding contraction of woodland. The spatial patterns in vegetation change were consistent with the regional climatic gradient and showed a weaker co‐relationship to fire history. Resource exploitation, wildland fires and autogenic mire development failed to explain the observed expansion of mire vegetation in the absence of climate change. We therefore conclude that the extent of mire wetlands is likely to be sensitive to variation in climatic moisture over decadal time scales. Late 20th‐century trends in climatic moisture may be related primarily to reduced irradiance and/or reduced wind speeds. In the 21st century, however, net climatic moisture in this region is projected to decline. As mires are apparently sensitive to hydrological change, we anticipate lateral contraction of mire boundaries in coming decades as projected climatic drying eventuates. This raises concerns about the future hydrological functions, carbon storage capacity and unique biodiversity of these important ecosystems.     

The future of Iranian wetlands under climate change

Temporal changes in the area of 10 significant wetlands in Iran were determined using the remote sensing image of TM and ETM+ band 5 for a period of 15 years (1998–2012). The relationship between the annual time series of the area and the difference of precipitation and potential evaporation (P-E) was obtained for the wetlands using three evaporation methods. The area of the wetlands was predicted for 2050 using the best-fitting model and seven global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (a total of 28 climate scenarios). The area of five wetlands had a significant positive correlation with the P-E (R² > 0.72). The area of one wetland (Ghoorigol) is predicted to increase and the area of four wetlands (Bakhtegan, Chaghakhor, Parishan and Gavkhooni) is predicted to decrease in 2050 in comparison to the maximum area of the wetlands from 1998 to 2012 under all the climate scenarios. In comparison to the mean area of the wetlands (1998–2012), one wetland (Ghoorigol) is predicted to be larger and two wetlands (Gavkhooni and Parishan) are predicted to be smaller under all the climate scenarios. Two wetlands (Bakhtegan and Chaghakhor) are predicted to be larger under most of the climate scenarios in 2050. The Uromia wetland, the largest wetland in Iran, is predicted to become completely dry by 2032 if anthropogenic impacts continue similar to what occurred from 1998 to 2012.     

Moss and vascular plant indices in Ohio wetlands have similar environmental predictors

Mosses and vascular plants have been shown to be reliable indicators of wetland habitat delineation and environmental quality. Knowledge of the best ecological predictors of the quality of wetland moss and vascular plant communities may determine if similar management practices would simultaneously enhance both populations. We used Akaike's Information Criterion to identify models predicting a moss quality assessment index (MQAI) and a vascular plant index of biological integrity based on floristic quality (VIBI-FQ) from 27 emergent and 13 forested wetlands in Ohio, USA. The set of predictors included the six metrics from a wetlands disturbance index (ORAM) and two landscape development intensity indices (LDIs). The best single predictor of MQAI and one of the predictors of VIBI-FQ was an ORAM metric that assesses habitat alteration and disturbance within the wetland, such as mowing, grazing, and agricultural practices. However, the best single predictor of VIBI-FQ was an ORAM metric that assessed wetland vascular plant communities, interspersion, and microtopography. LDIs better predicted MQAI than VIBI-FQ, suggesting that mosses may either respond more rapidly to, or recover more slowly from, anthropogenic disturbance in the surrounding landscape than vascular plants. These results supported previous predictive studies on amphibian indices and metrics and a separate vegetation index, indicating that similar wetland management practices may result in qualitatively the same ecological response for three vastly different wetland biological communities (amphibians, vascular plants, and mosses).