Climate change and range restriction of common salamanders in eastern Canada and the United States

The sensitivity of amphibian species to shifts in environmental conditions has been exhibited through long-term population studies and the projection of ecological niche models under expected conditions. Species in biodiversity hotspots have been the focus of ample predictive modeling studies, while, despite their significant ecological value, wide-ranging and common taxa have received less attention. We focused on predicting range restriction of the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum), blue-spotted salamander (A. laterale), four-toed salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum), and red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) under future climate scenarios. Using bias-corrected future climate data and biodiversity database records, we developed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models under current conditions and for climate change projections in 2050 and 2070. We calculated positivity rates of species localities to represent proportions of habitat expected to remain climatically suitable with continued climate change. Models projected under future conditions predicted average positivity rates of 91% (89–93%) for the blue-spotted salamander, 23% (2–41%) for the spotted salamander, 4% (0.7–9%) for the four-toed salamander, and 61% (42–76%) for the red-backed salamander. Range restriction increased with time and greenhouse gas concentration for the spotted salamander, four-toed salamander, and red-backed salamander. Common, widespread taxa that often receive less conservation resources than other species are at risk of experiencing significant losses to their climatic ranges as climate change continues. Efforts to maintain populations of species should be focused on regions expected to experience fewer climatic shifts such as the interior and northern zones of species' distributions.     

Climate change‐induced vegetation change as a driver of increased subarctic biogenic volatile organic compound emissions

Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have been earlier shown to be highly temperature sensitive in subarctic ecosystems. As these ecosystems experience rapidly advancing pronounced climate warming, we aimed to investigate how warming affects the BVOC emissions in the long term (up to 13 treatment years). We also aimed to assess whether the increased litterfall resulting from the vegetation changes in the warming subarctic would affect the emissions. The study was conducted in a field experiment with factorial open‐top chamber warming and annual litter addition treatments on subarctic heath in Abisko, northern Sweden. After 11 and 13 treatment years, BVOCs were sampled from plant communities in the experimental plots using a push–pull enclosure technique and collection into adsorbent cartridges during the growing season and analyzed with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Plant species coverage in the plots was analyzed by the point intercept method. Warming by 2 °C caused a 2‐fold increase in monoterpene and 5‐fold increase in sesquiterpene emissions, averaged over all measurements. When the momentary effect of temperature was diminished by standardization of emissions to a fixed temperature, warming still had a significant effect suggesting that emissions were also indirectly increased. This indirect increase appeared to result from increased plant coverage and changes in vegetation composition. The litter addition treatment also caused significant increases in the emission rates of some BVOC groups, especially when combined with warming. The combined treatment had both the largest vegetation changes and the highest BVOC emissions. The increased emissions under litter addition were probably a result of a changed vegetation composition due to alleviated nutrient limitation and stimulated microbial production of BVOCs. We suggest that the changes in the subarctic vegetation composition induced by climate warming will be the major factor indirectly affecting the BVOC emission potentials and composition.     

Early Pleistocene vegetation change in upland south‐eastern Australia

Aim This study aims to improve our understanding of the late Cenozoic history of Australian rain forest and sclerophyll biomes by presenting a detailed pollen record demonstrating the floristic composition and orbital‐scale patterns of change in forest communities of upland south‐eastern Australia, during the Early Pleistocene. The record is examined in order to shed light on the nature of the transition from rain forest‐dominated ‘Tertiary’ Australian vegetation to open‐canopied ‘Quaternary’ vegetation. Location Stony Creek Basin (144.13° E, 37.35° S, 550 m a.s.l), a small, infilled palaeolake in the western uplands of Victoria, Australia. Methods A c. 40‐m‐long sediment core was recovered from the infilled palaeolake. Palynology was used to produce a record of changing vegetation through time. Multivariate analyses provided a basis for interpreting the composition of rain forest and sclerophyll forest communities and for identifying changes in these communities over successive insolation cycles. Results Early Pleistocene upland south‐eastern Australian vegetation was characterized by orbital‐scale, cyclic alternation between rain forest and sclerophyll forests. Individual intervals of forest development underwent patterns of sequential taxon expansion that recurred in successive vegetation cycles. Diverse rain forests included a number of angiosperm and gymnosperm taxa now extinct regionally to globally. Sclerophyll forests were also diverse, and occurred under warm and wet climate conditions. Main conclusions The Stony Creek Basin record demonstrates that as recently as c. 1.5 Ma diverse rain forests persisted in southern Australia beyond the modern continental range of rain forest. The importance of conifers in these rain forests emphasizes that they have no modern Australian analogue. Alternation in dominance between these forests and diverse, sclerophyllous open canopied forests was apparently driven by changes in seasonality, and may have been promoted by fire.     

Land‐use and fire history effects on post‐fire vegetation dynamics in eastern Spain

Question: Is post‐fire, medium‐term vegetation dynamics determined by land‐use or fire history prior to fire? Location: South‐facing slope in the Gallinera valley, Alicante province, eastern Spain. Methods: After mapping the land‐use and fire history of the study site using photo‐interpretation, we sampled vegetation structure on a set of plots representing the most frequent land‐use and fire history combinations on an area burned six years before sampling. We studied the effects of land‐use history, comparing the one‐fire land‐use trajectories. We analysed the effects of fire history; comparing one‐ and two‐fire plots for both previously cropped and uncropped areas. Results: Most variables were not significantly different between the earliest abandoned plots (abandoned at least 38 years before the fire) and the uncropped plots. On the most recently abandoned plots (abandoned between one and four years before the fire), the therophyte richness and the ratio of seeder: resprouter richness were significantly greatest. Different fire recurrences did not determine different post‐fire vegetation on either the uncropped or the early abandoned plots (all dominated by fire‐recruited seeder shrubs). The most recently abandoned plots had a lower resilience to fire. Conclusions: Land‐use history and recent pre‐fire land use, in particular, determined the post‐fire vegetation in the medium term. The vegetation composition converged during secondary succession among land‐use histories. Increasing fire recurrence had a small effect on mature plant communities, due to the combination of life‐history traits determining the response to fire of the dominant species.     

Climate change increases risk of plant invasion in the Eastern United States

Invasive plant species threaten native ecosystems, natural resources, and managed lands worldwide. Climate change may increase risk from invasive plant species as favorable climate conditions allow invaders to expand into new ranges. Here, we use bioclimatic envelope modeling to assess current climatic habitat, or lands climatically suitable for invasion, for three of the most dominant and aggressive invasive plants in the southeast United States: kudzu (Pueraria lobata), privet (Ligustrum sinense; L. vulgare), and cogongrass (Imperata cylindrica). We define climatic habitat using both the Maxent and Mahalanobis distance methodologies, and we define the best climatic predictors based on variables that best ‘constrain’ species distributions and variables that ‘release’ the most land area if excluded. We then use an ensemble of 12 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to project changes in climatic habitat for the three invasive species by 2100. The combined methodologies, predictors, and models produce a robust assessment of invasion risk inclusive of many of the approaches typically used individually to assess climate change impacts. Current invasion risk is widespread in southeastern states for all three species, although cogongrass invasion risk is more restricted to the Gulf Coast. Climate change is likely to enable all three species to greatly expand their ranges. Risk from privet and kudzu expands north into Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and New England states by 2100. Risk from cogongrass expands as far north as Kentucky and Virginia. Heightened surveillance and prompt eradication of small pockets of invasion in northern states should be a management priority.     

Field and climate‐based model for predicting the density of host‐seeking nymphal Ixodes scapularis,an important vector of tick‐borne disease agents in the eastern United States

Aim Ixodes scapularis is the most important vector of human tick‐borne pathogens in the United States, which include the agents of Lyme disease, human babesiosis and human anaplasmosis, among others. The density of host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs is an important component of human risk for acquiring Borrelia burgdorferi, the aetiological agent of Lyme disease. In this study we used climate and field sampling data to generate a predictive map of the density of host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs that can be used by the public, physicians and public health agencies to assist with the diagnosis and reporting of disease, and to better target disease prevention and control efforts. Location Eastern United States of America. Methods We sampled host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs in 304 locations uniformly distributed east of the 100th meridian between 2004 and 2006. Between May and September, 1000 m² were drag sampled three to six times per site. We developed a zero‐inflated negative binomial model to predict the density of host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs based on altitude, interpolated weather station and remotely sensed data. Results Variables that had the strongest relationship with nymphal density were altitude, monthly mean vapour pressure deficit and spatial autocorrelation. Forest fragmentation and soil texture were not predictive. The best‐fit model identified two main foci – the north‐east and upper Midwest – and predicted the presence and absence of I. scapularis nymphs with 82% accuracy, with 89% sensitivity and 82% specificity. Areas of concordance and discordance with previous studies were discussed. Areas with high predicted but low observed densities of host‐seeking nymphs were identified as potential expansion fronts. Main conclusions This model is unique in its extensive and unbiased field sampling effort, allowing for an accurate delineation of the density of host‐seeking I. scapularis nymphs, an important component of human risk of infection for B. burgdorferi and other I. scapularis‐borne pathogens.     

Observation of irrigation‐induced climate change in the Midwest United States

Irrigated agriculture alters near‐surface temperature and humidity, which may mask global climate change at the regional scale. However, observational studies of irrigation‐induced climate change are lacking in temperate, humid regions throughout North America and Europe. Despite unknown climate impacts, irrigated agriculture is expanding in the Midwest United States, where unconfined aquifers provide groundwater to support crop production on coarse soils. This is the first study in the Midwest United States to observe and quantify differences in regional climate associated with irrigated agricultural conversion from forests and rainfed agriculture. To this end, we established a 60 km transect consisting of 28 stations across varying land uses and monitored surface air temperature and relative humidity for 31 months in the Wisconsin Central Sands region. We used a novel approach to quantify irrigated land use in both space and time with a database containing monthly groundwater withdrawal estimates by parcel for the state of Wisconsin. Irrigated agriculture decreased maximum temperatures and increased minimum temperatures, thus shrinking the diurnal temperature range (DTR) by an average of 3°C. Irrigated agriculture also decreased the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by an average of 0.10 kPa. Irrigated agriculture significantly decreased evaporative demand for 25% and 66% of study days compared to rainfed agriculture and forest, respectively. Differences in VPD across the land‐use gradient were highest (0.21 kPa) during the peak of the growing season, while differences in DTR were comparable year‐round. Interannual variability in temperature had greater impacts on differences in DTR and VPD across the land‐use gradient than interannual variability in precipitation. These regional climate changes must be considered together with increased greenhouse gas emissions, changes to groundwater quality, and surface water degradation when evaluating the costs and benefits of groundwater‐sourced irrigation expansion in the Midwest United States and similar regions around the world.     

Increasing elephantLoxodonta africana density is a more important driver of change in vegetation condition than rainfall

The impact of African elephantsLoxodonta africana Blumenbuch, 1797 on biodiversity is hotly debated in wildlife management circles with scientists polarised in their views. This polarisation is largely due to the individual experiences of researchers. We aimed to determine whether elephants or rainfall patterns drove changes in vegetation condition (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) by avoiding a site-specific approach and looking at the issue at a broader scale. We used published estimates of elephant population density from 30 sites and recorded the change in density from 1995–1999, from 1999–2002 and from 2002–2006. We also recorded the deviation of annual rainfall from the long-term mean for those periods. We modelled these variables against the change in NDVI between periods using mixed effects models. We found that elephants were more influential in driving change in vegetation condition than rainfall, and this also occurred at one of our individual test sites where long-term data were available (Kruger). Elephants and rainfall combined to drive change in vegetation condition at our other long-term test site (Amboseli). Management activities (fencing, water provision) may cause the differences between the two long-term study sites. Change in productivity driven by rainfall has ramifications for biodiversity, suggesting that elephant derived changes in vegetation productivity (NDVI) also impacts on biodiversity. Thus, this study supports previous findings from individual sites that elephants impact vegetation, however there is also a suggestion that these impacts may vary according to management actions.     

Song‐type sharing in a population of Song Sparrows in the eastern United States

Male Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) sometimes interact with neighboring territory owners by song‐type matching or repertoire matching. In some Song Sparrow populations, levels of song sharing are high and most neighbors can interact by matching, but levels of song sharing are much lower in other populations, limiting the degree to which males can match their neighbors. One explanation for variation in sharing levels is that the importance of song‐type and repertoire matching, and therefore the extent of song sharing, varies geographically in North America, being greater in western populations than eastern populations. However, to date, two studies of eastern populations have provided conflicting evidence concerning levels of song sharing by Song Sparrows. Thus, we measured sharing of whole songs and introductory phrases of songs between males with adjacent territories in another population of Song Sparrows in the eastern United States (North Carolina), near the eastern and southern limits of the species’ breeding range. Males (N = 17) in our study shared an average of only 8.7% of their song types with neighbors, and more than half of neighbor pairs shared no whole songs. Sharing of introductory phrases was more common (mean = 22.8%). The level of whole song sharing in our study is the second lowest yet reported for any Song Sparrow population, supporting the hypothesis that sharing is generally lower in eastern than in western populations.     

Population genomic analysis uncovers African and European admixture in Drosophila melanogaster populations from the south‐eastern United States and Caribbean Islands

Drosophila melanogaster is postulated to have colonized North America in the past several 100 years in two waves. Flies from Europe colonized the east coast United States while flies from Africa inhabited the Caribbean, which if true, make the south‐east US and Caribbean Islands a secondary contact zone for African and European D. melanogaster. This scenario has been proposed based on phenotypes and limited genetic data. In our study, we have sequenced individual whole genomes of flies from populations in the south‐east US and Caribbean Islands and examined these populations in conjunction with population sequences from the west coast US, Africa, and Europe. We find that west coast US populations are closely related to the European population, likely reflecting a rapid westward expansion upon first settlements into North America. We also find genomic evidence of African and European admixture in south‐east US and Caribbean populations, with a clinal pattern of decreasing proportions of African ancestry with higher latitude. Our genomic analysis of D. melanogaster populations from the south‐east US and Caribbean Islands provides more evidence for the Caribbean Islands as the source of previously reported novel African alleles found in other east coast US populations. We also find the border between the south‐east US and the Caribbean island to be the admixture hot zone where distinctly African‐like Caribbean flies become genomically more similar to European‐like south‐east US flies. Our findings have important implications for previous studies examining the generation of east coast US clines via selection.     

Deer herbivory as an important driver of divergence of ground vegetation communities in temperate forests

Ungulate herbivory can fundamentally affect terrestrial vegetation at the landscape and regional levels, but its impact has never been analyzed from meta‐community perspectives. Here, we study a meta‐community of forest ground‐layer plants in a warm‐temperate region along a clear gradient of deer density interplaying with gradients of other environmental factors (forest type, sky openness and topographic wetness). Canonical corresponding analysis showed that deer density was the most important determinant of species distributions. These distributions conformed to a two‐directional filtering model, which selects for competitive species at low deer density but favours herbivory‐tolerant plants at high deer density, with these two directions counterbalancing each other when herbivory is intermediary. This resulted in a bi‐directionally nested meta‐community, in which local species richness was highest at intermediate levels of deer density, conforming also to the intermediate disturbance hypothesis. Our results suggest that herbivory can be the most important driver of meta‐community structure in mesic systems; this contrasts with the results of earlier studies conducted in harsh environments, where species sorting by abiotic factors at early life stages reduced the role of biotic interactions, including herbivory.     

Climate and pH as determinants of vegetation succession in Central European man‐made habitats

Questions: (1) What are the most important abiotic environmental variables influencing succession in central European man‐made habitats? (2) How do these variables interact with one another and with variation in community properties? Location: Central, western and southern parts of the Czech Republic. Habitats included old fields, urban sites, spoil heaps after coal mining, sites at water reservoirs, extracted sand pit and peatland and reclaimed sites in areas deforested by air pollution. Methods: We investigated vegetation patterns on 15 succes‐sional seres, sampled by the same methods. Time of succession over which the data were available ranged from 12 to 76 years. The cover of vascular plant species (in %) was estimated in 5 m × 5 m plots. The relationships between vegetation characteristics (species composition, total cover, cover of woody species, species number and rate of dominant species turnover) and 13 abiotic site factors, including climatic and soil variables, were tested using CCA ordination and regression models. Results: Substratum pH, the only substratum characteristic, and climate were the environmental variables significantly affecting the vegetation patterns in the course of succession. The rate of succession, measured as the turnover of dominant species, was significantly more rapid in lowland than in mountain climates. On alkaline soils, species numbers in succession increased towards warmer climates. However, acid soils prevented any increase in species numbers, regardless of the climate. Surprisingly, forms of nitrogen and contents of C, P and cations did not exhibit any significant effect on the vegetation characteristics studied. Conclusions: Our approach, to compare a number of seres, can contribute not only to our understanding of succession, but also to help restoration projects to predict vegetation change because the crucial environmental variables, as identified by this study, are easy to measure.     

Climate change and spotted owls: potentially contrasting responses in the Southwestern United States

Developing strategies that reduce the impacts of climate change on biodiversity will require projections of the future status of species under alternative climate change scenarios. Demographic models based on empirical data that link temporal variation in climate with vital rates can improve the accuracy of such predictions and help guide conservation efforts. Here, we characterized how population dynamics and extinction risk might be affected by climate change for three spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) populations in the Southwestern United States over the next century. Specifically, we used stochastic, stage‐based matrix models parameterized with vital rates linked to annual variation in temperature and precipitation to project owl populations forward in time under three IPCC emissions scenarios relative to contemporary climate. Owl populations in Arizona and New Mexico were predicted to decline rapidly over the next century and had a much greater probability of extinction under all three emissions scenarios than under current climate conditions. In contrast, owl population dynamics in Southern California were relatively insensitive to predicted changes in climate, and extinction risk was low for this population under all scenarios. The difference in predicted climate change impacts between these areas was due to negative associations between warm, dry conditions and owl vital rates in Arizona and New Mexico, whereas cold, wet springs reduced reproduction in Southern California. Predicted changes in population growth rates were mediated more by weather‐induced changes in fecundity than survival, and were generally more sensitive to increases in temperature than declines in precipitation. Our results indicate that spotted owls in arid environments may be highly vulnerable to climate change, even in core parts of the owl's range. More broadly, contrasting responses to climate change among populations highlight the need to tailor conservation strategies regionally, and modeling efforts such as ours can help prioritize the allocation of resources in this regard.     

Fine‐scale five‐year vegetation change in boreal bog vegetation

Abstract. Within an ombrogenous part of N. Kisselbergmosen, Rødenes, SE Norway, fine‐scale changes in species abundance, successional trends relative to the main gradients (as represented by DCA axes), and co‐ordinated change within pairs of the bottom layer species are studied. Data sets were sampled twice with a five‐year interval, and included species abundance and cover of mud bottom, naked peat and litter in 436 sample plots (16 cm× 16 cm), and species abundance in 6976 subplots (4 cm× 4 cm). Depth from the surface of subplots to the water table was estimated in 1991. Most summers and growing seasons were somewhat drier than normal in the 5‐yr period. The area covered by mud‐bottom, naked peat and litter increased significantly, as did the frequencies of the dwarf shrubs Calluna vulgaris and Andromeda polifolia in hummocks and upper lawn. Sample plots were significantly displaced downward the peat productivity gradient (DCA 2), reflecting the reduced cover of many bottom layer species, including all Sphagnum spp. Significant coordinated changes in cover of bottom layer species are described. The changes observed in hummocks support the existence of a local regeneration cycle, as suggested by other researchers. Some of the vegetation changes seem parallel to those reported from areas with a higher nitrogen deposition, but it is not likely that nitrogen deposition alone is the major cause of the observed changes. Between‐year variation in population size and climatic fluctuations may as well explain the observed changes.