Twenty‐first‐century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins

Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio‐economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery‐dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish‐MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%–30% (±12%–17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%–80% (±35%–200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size‐classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.     

High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change

Despite recurrent emphasis on their ecological and economic roles, the importance of high trophic levels (HTLs) on ocean carbon dynamics, through passive (fecal pellet production, carcasses) and active (vertical migration) processes, is still largely unexplored, notably under climate change scenarios. In addition, HTLs impact the ecosystem dynamics through top-down effects on lower trophic levels, which might change under anthropogenic influence. Here we compare two simulations of a global biogeochemical–ecosystem model with and without feedbacks from large marine animals. We show that these large marine animals affect the evolution of low trophic level biomasses, hence net primary production and most certainly ecosystem equilibrium, but seem to have little influence on the 21st-century anthropogenic carbon uptake under the RCP8.5 scenario. These results provide new insights regarding the expectations for trophic amplification of climate change through the marine trophic chain and regarding the necessity to explicitly represent marine animals in Earth System Models.     

Ecosystem functioning of two marine food webs in the North‐Western Ionian Sea (Central Mediterranean Sea)

The ecosystem functioning of two marine food webs covering the north‐eastern (Salento) and south‐western (Calabria) sectors of the North‐Western Ionian Sea (NWIS) (Central Mediterranean Sea) was investigated through a food‐web model. Data inputs covered a wide set of ecological information applied to 58 functional groups (FGs). The sum of consumption and the mean predation mortality rate were calculated for benthic, demersal, and pelagic subsystems indicating the predator and prey roles of the FGs. A complex system of energy and biomass exchanges characterized the investigated food webs indicating an important benthic‐pelagic coupling. In the food webs of both areas, the regulation of flows between the benthic‐pelagic coupling seems to occur through the benthopelagic shrimps and the small pelagics due to their wasp‐waist control role. Differences were observed concerning the top predators. Odontocetes play this keystone role in the Salento food web. Anglers, bathyal squids, and sharks assume this functional role in Calabria. The geomorphology and hydrography in the NWIS could affect the biomass and energy exchanges in this coupling. The higher flows of consumption of the benthic system observed in the Calabria food web could be influenced by a widespread presence of canyons along the continental edge which increase the benthic productivity. In contrast, the flows of consumption in the Salento food web seem to be driven by the planktonic productivity supporting the pelagic, benthopelagic, and demersal compartments. This condition could be favored by the large extension of the shelf break zone. The food‐web models realized for the NWIS represent ideal platforms for the development of analysis with dynamic simulations. The comparative analysis of the two food webs by means of the FGs and their functional traits allowed the general pattern of ecosystem structure and functioning in the NWIS to be identified, making it an interesting approach to investigate the marine ecosystem.     

气候变化对中国近海8种中上层鱼类潜在生境分布的影响

随着底层和近底层渔业资源的衰退,海洋中上层鱼类在我国海洋捕捞业中逐渐占据重要的地位。预测气候变化情景下中上层经济鱼类的潜在生境分布及其变化规律,可为应对气候变化的鱼类栖息地保护和渔业生态系统管理提供重要科学依据。采用物种分布模型模拟并预测现状及2050年两种气候变化情景下8种中上层经济鱼类在中国近海的潜在分布,通过分布区的收缩-扩张情形和质心迁移距离定量分析气候变化对鱼类空间分布格局的影响。结果表明：(1)模型预测结果良好,各组模型的AUC值均高于0.85,影响目标鱼类潜在分布的主要驱动因子为海水表层温度和溶解氧;(2)8种中上层经济鱼类中,羽鳃鲐(Rastrelliger kanagurta)、鳓鱼(Ilisha elongata)等种类生境分布偏南,气候变化情景下分布北界可扩展至长江口,而鳀鱼(Engraulis japonicus)、青鳞小沙丁鱼(Sardinella zunasi)等种类主要分布在我国北方海域,气候变化情景下生境南缘边界退缩明显;(3)整体来看RCP8.5情景下的空间分布变化率大于RCP2.6情景,其中蓝圆鲹(Decapterus maruadsi)、青鳞小沙丁...     

Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change

The impact of climate change on the marine food web is highly uncertain. Nonetheless, there is growing consensus that global marine primary production will decline in response to future climate change, largely due to increased stratification reducing the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean. Evidence to date suggests a potential amplification of this response throughout the trophic food web, with more dramatic responses at higher trophic levels. Here we show that trophic amplification of marine biomass declines is a consistent feature of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models, across different scenarios of future climate change. Under the business‐as‐usual Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) global mean phytoplankton biomass is projected to decline by 6.1% ± 2.5% over the twenty‐first century, while zooplankton biomass declines by 13.6% ± 3.0%. All models project greater relative declines in zooplankton than phytoplankton, with annual zooplankton biomass anomalies 2.24 ± 1.03 times those of phytoplankton. The low latitude oceans drive the projected trophic amplification of biomass declines, with models exhibiting variable trophic interactions in the mid‐to‐high latitudes and similar relative changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Under the assumption that zooplankton biomass is prey limited, an analytical explanation of the trophic amplification that occurs in the low latitudes can be derived from generic plankton differential equations. Using an ocean biogeochemical model, we show that the inclusion of variable C:N:P phytoplankton stoichiometry can substantially increase the trophic amplification of biomass declines in low latitude regions. This additional trophic amplification is driven by enhanced nutrient limitation decreasing phytoplankton N and P content relative to C, hence reducing zooplankton growth efficiency. Given that most current Earth System Models assume that phytoplankton C:N:P stoichiometry is constant, such models are likely to underestimate the extent of negative trophic amplification under projected climate change.     

Climate change disrupts core habitats of marine species

Driven by climate change, marine biodiversity is undergoing a phase of rapid change that has proven to be even faster than changes observed in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how these changes in species composition will affect future marine life is crucial for conservation management, especially due to increasing demands for marine natural resources. Here, we analyse predictions of a multiparameter habitat suitability model covering the global projected ranges of >33,500 marine species from climate model projections under three CO₂ emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) up to the year 2100. Our results show that the core habitat area will decline for many species, resulting in a net loss of 50% of the core habitat area for almost half of all marine species in 2100 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. As an additional consequence of the continuing distributional reorganization of marine life, gaps around the equator will appear for 8% (RCP2.6), 24% (RCP4.5), and 88% (RCP8.5) of marine species with cross-equatorial ranges. For many more species, continuous distributional ranges will be disrupted, thus reducing effective population size. In addition, high invasion rates in higher latitudes and polar regions will lead to substantial changes in the ecosystem and food web structure, particularly regarding the introduction of new predators. Overall, our study highlights that the degree of spatial and structural reorganization of marine life with ensued consequences for ecosystem functionality and conservation efforts will critically depend on the realized greenhouse gas emission pathway.     

Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs

Sea water temperature affects all biological and ecological processes that ultimately impact ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examine the influence of temperature on global biomass transfers from marine secondary production to fish stocks. By combining fisheries catches in all coastal ocean areas and life‐history traits of exploited marine species, we provide global estimates of two trophic transfer parameters which determine biomass flows in coastal marine food web: the trophic transfer efficiency (TTE) and the biomass residence time (BRT) in the food web. We find that biomass transfers in tropical ecosystems are less efficient and faster than in areas with cooler waters. In contrast, biomass transfers through the food web became faster and more efficient between 1950 and 2010. Using simulated changes in sea water temperature from three Earth system models, we project that the mean TTE in coastal waters would decrease from 7.7% to 7.2% between 2010 and 2100 under the ‘no effective mitigation’ representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), while BRT between trophic levels 2 and 4 is projected to decrease from 2.7 to 2.3 years on average. Beyond the global trends, we show that the TTEs and BRTs may vary substantially among ecosystem types and that the polar ecosystems may be the most impacted ecosystems. The detected and projected changes in mean TTE and BRT will undermine food web functioning. Our study provides quantitative understanding of temperature effects on trophodynamic of marine ecosystems under climate change.     

Big in the benthos: Future change of seafloor community biomass in a global,body size‐resolved model

Deep‐water benthic communities in the ocean are almost wholly dependent on near‐surface pelagic ecosystems for their supply of energy and material resources. Primary production in sunlit surface waters is channelled through complex food webs that extensively recycle organic material, but lose a fraction as particulate organic carbon (POC) that sinks into the ocean interior. This exported production is further rarefied by microbial breakdown in the abyssal ocean, but a residual ultimately drives diverse assemblages of seafloor heterotrophs. Advances have led to an understanding of the importance of size (body mass) in structuring these communities. Here we force a size‐resolved benthic biomass model, BORIS, using seafloor POC flux from a coupled ocean‐biogeochemistry model, NEMO‐MEDUSA, to investigate global patterns in benthic biomass. BORIS resolves 16 size classes of metazoans, successively doubling in mass from approximately 1 μg to 28 mg. Simulations find a wide range of seasonal responses to differing patterns of POC forcing, with both a decline in seasonal variability, and an increase in peak lag times with increasing body size. However, the dominant factor for modelled benthic communities is the integrated magnitude of POC reaching the seafloor rather than its seasonal pattern. Scenarios of POC forcing under climate change and ocean acidification are then applied to investigate how benthic communities may change under different future conditions. Against a backdrop of falling surface primary production (?6.1%), and driven by changes in pelagic remineralization with depth, results show that while benthic communities in shallow seas generally show higher biomass in a warmed world (+3.2%), deep‐sea communities experience a substantial decline (?32%) under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Our results underscore the importance for benthic ecology of reducing uncertainty in the magnitude and seasonality of seafloor POC fluxes, as well as the importance of studying a broader range of seafloor environments for future model development.     

Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change

Seafloor organisms are vital for healthy marine ecosystems, contributing to elemental cycling, benthic remineralization, and ultimately sequestration of carbon. Deep‐sea life is primarily reliant on the export flux of particulate organic carbon from the surface ocean for food, but most ocean biogeochemistry models predict global decreases in export flux resulting from 21st century anthropogenically induced warming. Here we show that decadal‐to‐century scale changes in carbon export associated with climate change lead to an estimated 5.2% decrease in future (2091–2100) global open ocean benthic biomass under RCP8.5 (reduction of 5.2 Mt C) compared with contemporary conditions (2006–2015). Our projections use multi‐model mean export flux estimates from eight fully coupled earth system models, which contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, that have been forced by high and low representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and 4.5, respectively). These export flux estimates are used in conjunction with published empirical relationships to predict changes in benthic biomass. The polar oceans and some upwelling areas may experience increases in benthic biomass, but most other regions show decreases, with up to 38% reductions in parts of the northeast Atlantic. Our analysis projects a future ocean with smaller sized infaunal benthos, potentially reducing energy transfer rates though benthic multicellular food webs. More than 80% of potential deep‐water biodiversity hotspots known around the world, including canyons, seamounts, and cold‐water coral reefs, are projected to experience negative changes in biomass. These major reductions in biomass may lead to widespread change in benthic ecosystems and the functions and services they provide.     

The Impact of Whaling on the Ocean Carbon Cycle: Why Bigger Was Better

Background

Humans have reduced the abundance of many large marine vertebrates, including whales, large fish, and sharks, to only a small percentage of their pre-exploitation levels. Industrial fishing and whaling also tended to preferentially harvest the largest species and largest individuals within a population. We consider the consequences of removing these animals on the ocean''s ability to store carbon.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Because body size is critical to our arguments, our analysis focuses on populations of baleen whales. Using reconstructions of pre-whaling and modern abundances, we consider the impact of whaling on the amount of carbon stored in living whales and on the amount of carbon exported to the deep sea by sinking whale carcasses. Populations of large baleen whales now store 9.1×10⁶ tons less carbon than before whaling. Some of the lost storage has been offset by increases in smaller competitors; however, due to the relative metabolic efficiency of larger organisms, a shift toward smaller animals could decrease the total community biomass by 30% or more. Because of their large size and few predators, whales and other large marine vertebrates can efficiently export carbon from the surface waters to the deep sea. We estimate that rebuilding whale populations would remove 1.6×10⁵ tons of carbon each year through sinking whale carcasses.

Conclusions/Significance

Even though fish and whales are only a small portion of the ocean''s overall biomass, fishing and whaling have altered the ocean''s ability to store and sequester carbon. Although these changes are small relative to the total ocean carbon sink, rebuilding populations of fish and whales would be comparable to other carbon management schemes, including ocean iron fertilization.     

Projecting the impacts of climate change on skipjack tuna abundance and spatial distribution

Climate‐induced changes in the physical, chemical, and biological environment are expected to increasingly stress marine ecosystems, with important consequences for fisheries exploitation. Here, we use the APECOSM‐E numerical model (Apex Predator ECOSystem Model ‐ Estimation) to evaluate the future impacts of climate change on the physiology, spatial distribution, and abundance of skipjack tuna, the worldwide most fished species of tropical tuna. The main novelties of our approach lie in the mechanistic link between environmental factors, metabolic rates, and behavioral responses and in the fully three dimensional representation of habitat and population abundance. Physical and biogeochemical fields used to force the model are provided by the last generation of the IPSL‐CM5 Earth System Model run from 1990 to 2100 under a ‘business‐as‐usual’ scenario (RCP8.5). Our simulations show significant changes in the spatial distribution of skipjack tuna suitable habitat, as well as in their population abundance. The model projects deterioration of skipjack habitat in most tropical waters and an improvement of habitat at higher latitudes. The primary driver of habitat changes is ocean warming, followed by food density changes. Our projections show an increase of global skipjack biomass between 2010 and 2050 followed by a marked decrease between 2050 and 2095. Spawning rates are consistent with population trends, showing that spawning depends primarily on the adult biomass. On the other hand, growth rates display very smooth temporal changes, suggesting that the ability of skipjack to keep high metabolic rates in the changing environment is generally effective. Uncertainties related to our model spatial resolution, to the lack or simplification of key processes and to the climate forcings are discussed.     

气候变化对我国南方人工林地上生物量影响的模拟研究——以会同生态站磨哨实验林场为例

全球气候变暖对陆地生态系统尤其是森林生态系统有着重要的影响,气温升高、辐射强迫的增强将显著改变森林生态系统的结构和功能.南方人工林作为我国森林的重要组成部分,对气候变化的响应日益强烈.为了探究未来气候情景下我国南方人工林对气候变化的响应,降低未来气候变化对人工林可能带来的损失,本研究采用3种最新的气候情景—典型浓度排放路径情景(RCP2.6情景、RCP4.5情景、RCP8.5情景)预估数据,应用生态系统过程模型PnET-Ⅱ和空间直观景观模型LANDIS-Ⅱ模拟2014—2094年间湖南省会同森林生态实验站磨哨实验林场森林的地表净初级生产力(ANPP)、物种建立可能性(SEP)和地上生物量的变化.结果表明: 不同森林类型的SEP和ANPP对气候变化的响应有明显的差异,各森林类型对气候变化的响应程度表现为: 对于SEP,在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,人工针叶林＞天然阔叶林＞人工阔叶林;在RCP8.5情景下,天然阔叶林＞人工阔叶林＞人工针叶林.对于ANPP,在RCP2.6情景下,人工阔叶林＞天然阔叶林＞人工针叶林;在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,天然阔叶林＞人工阔叶林＞人工针叶林.人工针叶林的地上生物量在2050年左右开始下降,天然阔叶林和人工阔叶林整体呈现上升趋势.2014—2094年,研究区地上总生物量在不同气候情景下增加幅度不同,RCP2.6情景下增加了68.2%,RCP4.5情景下增加了79.3%,RCP8.5情景下增加了72.6%.3种情景下的总地上生物量大小排序为: RCP4.5> RCP8.5> RCP2.6.我们认为,适当的增温将有助于未来研究区森林总地上生物量的积累,但过度的增温也可能会阻碍森林的生产和生态功能的持续发展.     

Size‐balanced community reorganization in response to nutrients and warming

It is widely accepted that global warming will adversely affect ecological communities. As ecosystems are simultaneously exposed to other anthropogenic influences, it is important to address the effects of climate change in the context of many stressors. Nutrient enrichment might offset some of the energy demands that warming can exert on organisms by stimulating growth at the base of the food web. It is important to know whether indirect effects of warming will be as ecologically significant as direct physiological effects. Declining body size is increasingly viewed as a universal response to warming, with the potential to alter trophic interactions. To address these issues, we used an outdoor array of marine mesocosms to examine the impacts of warming, nutrient enrichment and altered top‐predator body size on a community comprised of the predator (shore crab Carcinus maenas), various grazing detritivores (amphipods) and algal resources. Warming increased mortality rates of crabs, but had no effect on their moulting rates. Nutrient enrichment and warming had near diametrically opposed effects on the assemblage, confirming that the ecological effects of these two stressors can cancel each other out. This suggests that nutrient‐enriched systems might act as an energy refuge to populations of species under metabolic constraints due to warming. While there was a strong difference in assemblages between mesocosms containing crabs compared to mesocosms without crabs, decreasing crab size had no detectable effect on the amphipod or algal assemblages. This suggests that in allometrically balanced communities, the expected long‐term effect of warming (declining body size) is not of similar ecological consequence to the direct physiological effects of warming, at least not over the six week duration of the experiment described here. More research is needed to determine the long‐term effects of declining body size on the bioenergetic balance of natural communities.     

Are corals coming to a reef near you? Projected extension of suitable thermal conditions for hard coral communities along the east Australian coast

Climate change is driving the poleward redistribution of coral species, but the rate and magnitude of future range extensions within temperate regions are rarely quantified. A better understanding of the likely future distribution of corals is needed to anticipate the resulting social, economic and environmental implications. Here, we project the rate and magnitude of extensions of suitable thermal conditions for hard coral communities along the east Australian coastline, using data on coral community presence, in conjunction with historical and projected ocean temperatures. Our projections indicate that temperatures will be suitable for coral communities dominated by the subtropical coral Pocillopora aliciae, currently found off Sydney, to extend their range poleward by 80 (RCP 2.6) to 450 km (RCP 8.5) by 2100, corresponding to a rate of 0.9–5.0 km year⁻¹. Similarly, thermal conditions will be such that diverse coral communities, such as those currently occurring in the Solitary Islands, may extend their range by 130 (RCP 2.6) to 580 km (RCP 8.5) by 2100, at a rate of 1.4–6.4 km year⁻¹. These projections are similar to those forecast for coral species in other parts of the world. Newly establishing coral communities in temperate regions may provide a range of novel local economic opportunities, particularly for marine tourism.     

Warming shifts top-down and bottom-up control of pond food web structure and function

The effects of global and local environmental changes are transmitted through networks of interacting organisms to shape the structure of communities and the dynamics of ecosystems. We tested the impact of elevated temperature on the top-down and bottom-up forces structuring experimental freshwater pond food webs in western Canada over 16 months. Experimental warming was crossed with treatments manipulating the presence of planktivorous fish and eutrophication through enhanced nutrient supply. We found that higher temperatures produced top-heavy food webs with lower biomass of benthic and pelagic producers, equivalent biomass of zooplankton, zoobenthos and pelagic bacteria, and more pelagic viruses. Eutrophication increased the biomass of all organisms studied, while fish had cascading positive effects on periphyton, phytoplankton and bacteria, and reduced biomass of invertebrates. Surprisingly, virus biomass was reduced in the presence of fish, suggesting the possibility for complex mechanisms of top-down control of the lytic cycle. Warming reduced the effects of eutrophication on periphyton, and magnified the already strong effects of fish on phytoplankton and bacteria. Warming, fish and nutrients all increased whole-system rates of net production despite their distinct impacts on the distribution of biomass between producers and consumers, plankton and benthos, and microbes and macrobes. Our results indicate that warming exerts a host of indirect effects on aquatic food webs mediated through shifts in the magnitudes of top-down and bottom-up forcing.     

多气候情景下中国森林火灾风险评估

森林火灾风险主要取决于致灾因子、承灾体以及防灾减灾能力,综合评估和预测森林火灾风险是制定科学的林火管理政策的基础.本文基于经典自然灾害风险模型和可获取数据构建森林火灾风险评估模型与指标体系,评估过去和未来的森林火灾风险.未来气候情景数据包括RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5下5个全球气候模式(GFDL-ESM2M、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-LR、 MIROC-ESM-CHEM和NorESM1-M)日值数据.根据最高温度、最小相对湿度、平均风速和每日降水量分别计算1987—2050年历史观测数据和未来气候情景下各格点每日火险天气指数系统中各个指数.结果表明: 1987—2010年,森林火灾风险高和很高的区域分别占21.2%和6.2%,主要分布在大兴安岭和长白山地区、云南大部分区域和南方零散分布的区域.森林火灾可能性高和很高的区域主要分布在东北和西南地区,分别占森林面积的13.1%和4.0%.与观测时段相比,2021—2050年RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5情景下森林火灾可能性高和很高的区域分别增加0.6%、5.5%、2.3%和3.5%,华北地区增幅明显.气候变化引起的森林火灾高风险区域有些增加,RCP 8.5情景下增幅最明显(+1.6%).     

Future ocean climate homogenizes communities across habitats through diversity loss and rise of generalist species

Predictions of the effects of global change on ecological communities are largely based on single habitats. Yet in nature, habitats are interconnected through the exchange of energy and organisms, and the responses of local communities may not extend to emerging community networks (i.e., metacommunities). Using large mesocosms and meiofauna communities as a model system, we investigated the interactive effects of ocean warming and acidification on the structure of marine metacommunities from three shallow‐water habitats: sandy soft‐bottoms, marine vegetation, and rocky reef substrates. Primary producers and detritus—key food sources for meiofauna—increased in biomass under the combined effect of temperature and acidification. The enhanced bottom‐up forcing boosted nematode densities but impoverished the functional and trophic diversity of nematode metacommunities. The combined climate stressors further homogenized meiofauna communities across habitats. Under present‐day conditions metacommunities were structured by habitat type, but under future conditions they showed an unstructured random pattern with fast‐growing generalist species dominating the communities of all habitats. Homogenization was likely driven by local species extinctions, reducing interspecific competition that otherwise could have prevented single species from dominating multiple niches. Our findings reveal that climate change may simplify metacommunity structure and prompt biodiversity loss, which may affect the biological organization and resilience of marine communities.     

Filter-feeding gelatinous macrozooplankton response to climate change and implications for benthic food supply and global carbon cycle

It is often suggested that gelatinous zooplankton may benefit from anthropogenic pressures of all kinds and in particular from climate change. Large pelagic tunicates, for example, are likely to be favored over other types of macrozooplankton due to their filter-feeding mode, which gives them access to small preys thought to be less affected by climate change than larger preys. In this study, we provide model-based estimate of potential community changes in macrozooplankton composition and estimate for the first time their effects on benthic food supply and on the ocean carbon cycle under two 21st-century climate-change scenarios. Forced with output from an Earth System Model climate projections, our ocean biogeochemical model simulates a large reduction in macrozooplankton biomass in response to anthropogenic climate change, but shows that gelatinous macrozooplankton are less affected than nongelatinous macrozooplankton, with global biomass declines estimated at −2.8% and −3.5%, respectively, for every 1°C of warming. The inclusion of gelatinous macrozooplankon in our ocean biogeochemical model has a limited effect on anthropogenic carbon uptake in the 21st century, but impacts the projected decline in particulate organic matter fluxes in the deep ocean. In subtropical oligotrophic gyres, where gelatinous zooplankton dominate macrozooplankton, the decline in the amount of organic matter reaching the seafloor is reduced by a factor of 2 when gelatinous macrozooplankton are considered (−17.5% vs. −29.7% when gelatinous macrozooplankton are not considered, all for 2100 under RCP8.5). The shift to gelatinous macrozooplankton in the future ocean therefore buffers the decline in deep carbon fluxes and should be taken into account when assessing potential changes in deep carbon storage and the risks that deep ecosystems may face when confronted with a decline in their food source.     

Model‐specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak

Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model‐specification uncertainty) for 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single‐model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model‐specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model‐specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contribute to sounder decision‐making by acknowledging the limits of the projections and help to identify areas where model‐specification uncertainty is high. As such, we further stress that this uncertainty should be strongly considered when making forest management plans, notably by adopting adaptive management strategies so as to reduce future risks.     

Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change

Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio‐economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%–40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the ‘no mitigation policy’ scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid‐21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 (‘strong mitigation’) and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.