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1.
Norway spruce is one of the economically most important tree species in Central European forestry. However, its high susceptibility to droughts poses a strong challenge to its cultivation under future conditions with likely more frequent and prolonged droughts and shifts in the seasonal climate. To compensate for expected losses of forest areas suitable for the cultivation of spruce, more drought-tolerant species are required. Silver fir and Douglas fir are two potential candidates, which promise lower drought susceptibility and equal or even higher yield when compared to Norway spruce.Using the Black Forest as a regional case study, we assessed the effects of seasonal climate change, including drought stress, on tree-ring width formation of these three economically relevant conifer species over the last 60 years. In addition, we projected potential species-specific growth changes under different climate change scenarios until 2100.Our results suggest that both silver fir and Douglas fir will possibly experience growth increases in a warmer future climate, as predicted under the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios, whereas growth of spruce is expected to decline. Moreover, drought susceptibility in silver fir and Douglas fir is lower than in spruce, as shown for past drought events, and their ability to benefit from milder winters and springs could play a major role in their capacity to compensate for drier summers in the near to mid-term future. This study highlights the need to advance our understanding of the processes that drive drought resistance and resilience in tree species to guide management strategies in the face of climate change.  相似文献   

2.
The future performance of native tree species under climate change conditions is frequently discussed, since increasingly severe and more frequent drought events are expected to become a major risk for forest ecosystems. To improve our understanding of the drought tolerance of the three common European temperate forest tree species Norway spruce, silver fir and common beech, we tested the influence of climate and tree‐specific traits on the inter and intrasite variability in drought responses of these species. Basal area increment data from a large tree‐ring network in Southern Germany and Alpine Austria along a climatic cline from warm‐dry to cool‐wet conditions were used to calculate indices of tolerance to drought events and their variability at the level of individual trees and populations. General patterns of tolerance indicated a high vulnerability of Norway spruce in comparison to fir and beech and a strong influence of bioclimatic conditions on drought response for all species. On the level of individual trees, low‐growth rates prior to drought events, high competitive status and low age favored resilience in growth response to drought. Consequently, drought events led to heterogeneous and variable response patterns in forests stands. These findings may support the idea of deliberately using spontaneous selection and adaption effects as a passive strategy of forest management under climate change conditions, especially a strong directional selection for more tolerant individuals when frequency and intensity of summer droughts will increase in the course of global climate change.  相似文献   

3.
Assessing the effect of global warming on forest growth requires a better understanding of species‐specific responses to climate change conditions. Norway spruce and European beech are among the dominant tree species in Europe and are largely used by the timber industry. Their sensitivity to changes in climate and extreme climatic events, however, endangers their future sustainability. Identifying the key climatic factors limiting their growth and survival is therefore crucial for assessing the responses of these two species to ongoing climate change. We studied the vulnerability of beech and spruce to warmer and drier conditions by transplanting saplings from the top to the bottom of an elevational gradient in the Jura Mountains in Switzerland. We (1) demonstrated that a longer growing season due to warming could not fully account for the positive growth responses, and the positive effect on sapling productivity was species‐dependent, (2) demonstrated that the contrasting growth responses of beech and spruce were mainly due to different sensitivities to elevated vapor–pressure deficits (VPD), (3) determined the species‐specific limits to VPD above which growth rate began to decline, and (4) demonstrated that models incorporating extreme climatic events could account for the response of growth to warming better than models using only average values. These results support that the sustainability of forest trees in the coming decades will depend on how extreme climatic events will change, irrespective of the overall warming trend.  相似文献   

4.
Tree populations usually show adaptations to their local environments as a result of natural selection. As climates change, populations can become locally maladapted and decline in fitness. Evaluating the expected degree of genetic maladaptation due to climate change will allow forest managers to assess forest vulnerability, and develop strategies to preserve forest health and productivity. We studied potential genetic maladaptation to future climates in three major European tree species, Norway spruce (Picea abies), silver fir (Abies alba), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica). A common garden experiment was conducted to evaluate the quantitative genetic variation in growth and phenology of seedlings from 77 to 92 native populations of each species from across Switzerland. We used multivariate genecological models to associate population variation with past seed source climates, and to estimate relative risk of maladaptation to current and future climates based on key phenotypic traits and three regional climate projections within the A1B scenario. Current risks from climate change were similar to average risks from current seed transfer practices. For all three climate models, future risks increased in spruce and beech until the end of the century, but remained low in fir. Largest average risks associated with climate projections for the period 2061–2090 were found for spruce seedling height (0.64), and for beech bud break and leaf senescence (0.52 and 0.46). Future risks for spruce were high across Switzerland. However, areas of high risk were also found in drought‐prone regions for beech and in the southern Alps for fir. Genetic maladaptation to future climates is likely to become a problem for spruce and beech by the end of this century, but probably not for fir. Consequently, forest management strategies should be adjusted in the study area for spruce and beech to maintain productive and healthy forests in the future.  相似文献   

5.
Improving our understanding of the potential of forest adaptation is an urgent task in the light of predicted climate change. Long‐term alternatives for susceptible yet economically important tree species such as Norway spruce (Picea abies) are required, if the frequency and intensity of summer droughts will continue to increase. Although Silver fir (Abies alba) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) have both been described as drought‐tolerant species, our understanding of their growth responses to drought extremes is still limited. Here, we use a dendroecological approach to assess the resistance, resilience, and recovery of these important central Europe to conifer species the exceptional droughts in 1976 and 2003. A total of 270 trees per species were sampled in 18 managed mixed‐species stands along an altitudinal gradient (400–1200 m a.s.l.) at the western slopes of the southern and central Black Forest in southwest Germany. While radial growth in all species responded similarly to the 1976 drought, Norway spruce was least resistant and resilient to the 2003 summer drought. Silver fir showed the overall highest resistance to drought, similarly to Douglas fir, which exhibited the widest growth rings. Silver fir trees from lower elevations were more drought prone than trees at higher elevations. Douglas fir and Norway spruce, however, revealed lower drought resilience at higher altitudes. Although the 1976 and 2003 drought extremes were quite different, Douglas fir maintained consistently the highest radial growth. Although our study did not examine population‐level responses, it clearly indicates that Silver fir and Douglas fir are generally more resistant and resilient to previous drought extremes and are therefore suitable alternatives to Norway spruce; Silver fir more so at higher altitudes. Cultivating these species instead of Norway spruce will contribute to maintaining a high level of productivity across many Central European mountain forests under future climate change.  相似文献   

6.
Climate change may reduce forest growth and increase forest mortality, which is connected to high carbon costs through reductions in gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Yet, the spatiotemporal patterns of vulnerability to both short‐term extreme events and gradual environmental changes are quite uncertain across the species’ limits of tolerance to dryness. Such information is fundamental for defining ecologically relevant upper limits of species tolerance to drought and, hence, to predict the risk of increased forest mortality and shifts in species composition. We investigate here to what extent the impact of short‐ and long‐term environmental changes determines vulnerability to climate change of three evergreen conifers (Scots pine, silver fir, Norway spruce) and two deciduous hardwoods (European beech, sessile oak) tree species at their southernmost limits of distribution in the Mediterranean Basin. Finally, we simulated future forest growth under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios using a multispecies generalized linear mixed model. Our analysis provides four key insights into the patterns of species’ vulnerability to climate change. First, site climatic marginality was significantly linked to the growth trends: increasing growth was related to less climatically limited sites. Second, estimated species‐specific vulnerability did not match their a priori rank in drought tolerance: Scots pine and beech seem to be the most vulnerable species among those studied despite their contrasting physiologies. Third, adaptation to site conditions prevails over species‐specific determinism in forest response to climate change. And fourth, regional differences in forests vulnerability to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin are linked to the influence of summer atmospheric circulation patterns, which are not correctly represented in global climate models. Thus, projections of forest performance should reconsider the traditional classification of tree species in functional types and critically evaluate the fine‐scale limitations of the climate data generated by global climate models.  相似文献   

7.
Genetic resources of forest trees are considered as a key factor for the persistence of forest ecosystems because the ability of tree species to survive under changing climate depends strongly on their intraspecific variation in climate response. Therefore, utilizing available genetic variation in climate response and planting alternative provenances suitable for future climatic conditions is considered as an important adaptation measure for forestry. On the other hand, the distribution of adaptive genetic diversity of many tree species is still unknown and the predicted shift of ecological zones and species’ distribution may threaten forest genetic resources that are important for adaptation. Here, we use Norway spruce in Austria as a case study to demonstrate the genetic variation in climate response and to analyse the existing network of genetic conservation units for its effectiveness to safeguard the hotspots of adaptive and neutral genetic diversity of this species. An analysis of the climate response of 480 provenances, clustered into 9 groups of climatically similar provenances, revealed high variation among provenance groups. The most productive and promising provenance clusters for future climates originate from three regions that today depict the warmest and driest areas of the natural spruce distribution in Austria. Gap analysis of the Austrian genetic conservation units in the EUFGIS Portal suggests adequate coverage of the genetic hotspots in southern parts of Austria, but not in eastern and northern Austria. Therefore conservation measures and sustainable utilization of the valuable genetic resources in these regions need to be expanded to cover their high adaptive genetic variation and local adaptation to a warmer climate. The study shows that current conservation efforts need to be evaluated for their effectiveness to protect genetic resources that are important for the survival of trees in a future climate.  相似文献   

8.
In the face of climate change and accompanying risks, forest management in Europe is becoming increasingly important. Model simulations can help to understand the reactions and feedbacks of a changing environment on tree growth. In order to simulate forest growth based on future climate change scenarios, we tested the basic processes underlying the growth model BALANCE, simulating stand climate (air temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and precipitation), tree phenology, and photosynthesis. A mixed stand of 53- to 60-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in Southern Germany was used as a reference. The results show that BALANCE is able to realistically simulate air temperature gradients in a forest stand using air temperature measurements above the canopy and PAR regimes at different heights for single trees inside the canopy. Interception as a central variable for water balance of a forest stand was also estimated. Tree phenology, i.e. bud burst and leaf coloring, could be reproduced convincingly. Simulated photosynthesis rates were in accordance with measured values for beech both in the sun and the shade crown. For spruce, however, some discrepancies in the rates were obvious, probably due to changed environmental conditions after bud break. Overall, BALANCE has shown to respond to scenario simulations of a changing environment (e.g., climate change, change of forest stand structure).  相似文献   

9.
Questions: How to evaluate the mixture effect on basal area increment in two‐species forest stands? Is a mixed Norway spruce–silver fir stand more productive than pure adjacent stands of either species? How to develop generic modelling approaches to assess mixture effects in forest stands? Location: In addition to a case study on Norway spruce–silver fir stands in French mountain forests, the generic approach used goes beyond local applications. Methods: We took advantage of National Forest Inventory data to develop a unique stand basal‐area‐increment model for pure and mixed stands of Norway spruce and silver fir that responds to ecological site conditions. The database was made up of 284 pure Norway spruce stands, 196 pure silver fir stands, and 323 mixed stands of these species. Results: Pure silver fir basal area increment is strongly influenced by spring climatic conditions, whereas pure Norway spruce is more influenced by soil conditions. The mixture of these species has a positive effect on silver fir, which decreases as the proportion of fir increases. In contrast, the mixture has no noticeable effect on Norway spruce. Conclusion: We developed a stand basal‐area‐increment model evidencing an advantage of the mixture on silver fir basal area increment, but not on Norway spruce. The mathematical formulation of the model developed is generic and can be used in all two‐species mixture situations. It also makes it possible to compare different mixture situations with each other.  相似文献   

10.
E.-D. Schulze  G. Mischì  G. Asche  A. Brner 《Flora》2007,202(8):705-713
Larix decidua, the European Larch tree, is a typical forest species of the Southern Alps of North Italy growing in mixture with Picea, in isolated pure stands, or as solitary trees on meadows at 1000–2000 m elevation. Presently, the old-growth Larix forests show no regeneration, while Picea abies, Norway spruce, invades at lower elevation, and Pinus cembra, Stone pine, at higher elevation. In this study, we investigate the conditions that lead to pure stands of L. decidua in the past. It is shown that intensive land-use of grazing was essential for Larix regeneration, and that the pure stands of Larix will disappear in the future with the change of land-use, unless management will be intensified again to produce mineral soil for Larix to regenerate.  相似文献   

11.
Matías L  Zamora R  Castro J 《Oecologia》2012,169(3):833-844
The understanding of the impact of extreme climatic events under a global climate change scenario is crucial for the accurate forecast of future plant community dynamics. We have experimentally assessed the effect of drier and wetter summer conditions on the recruitment probabilities and the growth of seedlings from eight woody species representative of the most important functional groups in the community, pioneer shrubs, mid-successional shrubs and trees, across the main habitats in the study area (open habitat, shrubland, and forest). Our hypothesis proposes that wet summer conditions would represent a good opportunity for tree species regeneration, enhancing both forest maintenance and expansion. A drier summer scenario, on the other hand, would limit forest regeneration, and probably hinder the colonization of nearby habitats. We found a habitat effect on the emergence, survival, and final biomass, whereas different climate scenarios affected seedling survival and biomass. A wet summer boosted growth and survival, whereas greater drought reduced survival only in some cases. These results were modulated by the habitat type. Overall, shrub species presented higher survival and growth and were less affected by more severe drought, whereas some tree species proved to be extremely dependent on wet summer conditions. We conclude that the reduction in frequency of wet summers predicted for the coming decades in Mediterranean areas will have greater consequences for species recruitment than will increased drought. The different response of the species from the various functional groups has the potential to alter the composition and dominance of future plant communities.  相似文献   

12.
Research related to the allometric relationships of tree height and projected tree crown area to diameter at breast height was conducted to look at the biological suitability and timber production potential of Douglas fir under the conditions present in central Europe. The dependence of allometric relationships on soil nutrient conditions were described in forest stands of Douglas fir and Norway spruce. The studied sites were climatically similar but differed in soil nutrient availability. A significant difference was found in the allometric relationships of Norway spruce trees from the nutrient poor and nutrient rich site. In contrast to the Norway spruce, there was no significant effect of site fertility on allometric relationships for Douglas fir suggesting that its allocation patterns were less sensitive to site nutrient conditions. Stem growth increment, which was measured weekly during two consecutive seasons for both species, was related to the weather conditions and available soil moisture. Stem growth of Douglas fir began about 2 weeks earlier than in the Norway spruce at both sites. At the nutrient rich site, most of the stem growth of both species occurred at the beginning of the season, while growth at the other site was more evenly distributed throughout the season. Data obtained in this study will be useful for modeling stem growth and analysis of water use efficiency of these two tree species.  相似文献   

13.
Predation of tree seeds can be a major factor structuring plant communities. We present a three year study on tree seed survival on experimental dishes in an old‐growth forest in central Europe in Austria. We addressed species specific, spatial and temporal aspects of post‐dispersal seed predation. Seeds of Norway spruce Picea abies, European beech Fagus sylvatica, and silver fir Abies alba were exposed on dishes in different types of exclosures which allowed access only to specific guilds of seed predators. Removal experiments were carried out in two old‐growth forests and a managed forest (macro‐sites), including micro‐sites with and without cover of ground vegetation. We conducted the experiment in three consecutive years with a mast year of beech and spruce before the first year of the study. The seed removal experiments were combined with live trapping of small mammals being potential seed predators. Our experiments showed a distinctly different impact of different predator guilds on seed survival on the dishes with highest removal rates of seeds from dishes accessible for small mammals. We observed differing preferences of small mammals for the different tree species. Seed survival in different macro‐ and micro‐habitats were highly variable with lower seed survival in old growth forests. In contrast to our assumption, and in contrast to the satiation hypothesis which assumes higher seed survival in and directly after mast years, seed survival was lower in the year following the mast year of beech when a population peak of small mammals occurred and higher in intermast periods when subsequently small mammal population crashed. This suggests a higher importance of sporadic masting shortly after mast years in intermast periods for establishment of forest trees provided that pollination efficiency is high enough in such years. Combined with the high seed mortality observed after the mast year, this corroborates the important role of seed predation for forest dynamics. An altered synchrony or asynchrony of masting of different tree species and changed masting frequencies through climate change may thus lead to strong and non‐linear effects on forest dynamics.  相似文献   

14.
In this review, I summarized the results obtained from experimental studies on the ecophysiological responses of Japanese forest tree species to O3, simulated acid rain and soil acidification. Based on the studies conducted in Japan, exposure to ambient levels of O3 below 100 nl·l−1 (ppb) for several months is sufficient to inhibit dry matter production and net photosynthesis of sensitive Japanese forest tree species such as Siebold's beech and Japanese zelkova. On the other hand, exposure to simulated acid rain with a pH of 4.0 or above for several months cannot induce any adverse effects on dry matter production and physiological functions of Japanese forest tree species. However, when the pH of simulated rain or fog is lowered below 4.0, negative effects appear on dry matter production and physiological functions such as transpiration in several sensitive Japanese forest tree species such as Japanese fir and Nikko fir. Based on limited information, it may be concluded that (1) Al dissolved into soil solution is the most important limiting factor for dry matter production, physiological functions and nutrient status of Japanese forest tree species grown in acidic soil, (2) the (Ca+Mg+K)/Al molar ratio in soil solution is a useful indicator to evaluate and predict the effects of soil acidification due to acid deposition on whole-plant dry matter production of Japanese forest tree species at the present time and in the future, and (3) Japanese coniferous tree species such as Japanese cedar and red pine are relatively sensitive to a reduction in (Ca+Mg+K)/Al molar ratio in soil solution compared with European forest tree species such as Norway spruce.  相似文献   

15.
Bioclimate envelope models have been widely used to illustrate the discrepancy between current species distributions and their potential habitat under climate change. However, the realism and correct interpretation of such projections has been the subject of considerable discussion. Here, we investigate whether climate suitability predictions correlate to tree growth, measured in permanent inventory plots and inferred from tree‐ring records. We use the ensemble classifier RandomForest and species occurrence data from ~200,000 inventory plots to build species distribution models for four important European forestry species: Norway spruce, Scots pine, European beech, and pedunculate oak. We then correlate climate‐based habitat suitability with volume measurements from ~50‐year‐old stands, available from ~11,000 inventory plots. Secondly, habitat projections based on annual historical climate are compared with ring width from ~300 tree‐ring chronologies. Our working hypothesis is that habitat suitability projections from species distribution models should to some degree be associated with temporal or spatial variation in these growth records. We find that the habitat projections are uncorrelated with spatial growth records (inventory plot data), but they do predict interannual variation in tree‐ring width, with an average correlation of .22. Correlation coefficients for individual chronologies range from values as high as .82 or as low as ?.31. We conclude that tree responses to projected climate change are highly site‐specific and that local suitability of a species for reforestation is difficult to predict. That said, projected increase or decrease in climatic suitability may be interpreted as an average expectation of increased or reduced growth over larger geographic scales.  相似文献   

16.
Tropical dry forests (TDF) are highly important tropical forest ecosystems. Yet, these forests are highly threatened, usually neglected and only poorly studied. Understanding the long-term influences of environmental conditions on tree growth in these forests is crucial to understand the functioning, carbon dynamics and potential responses to future climate change of these forests. Dendrochronology can be used as a tool to provide these insights but has only scantly been applied in (dry) tropical forests. Here we evaluate the dendrochronological potential of four Caatinga neotropical dry forest tree species – Aspidosperma pyrifolium, Ziziphus joazeiro, Tabebuia aurea, and Libidibia ferrea – collected in two locations in northeastern Brazil (Sergipe state). We provide an anatomical characterization of the ring boundaries for the four species and investigate correlations of their growth with local and regional climatic variables. All four species form annual rings and show high inter-correlation (up to 0.806) and sensitivity (up to 0.565). Growth of all species correlated with local precipitation as well as with sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and/or tropical Pacific oceans. We also show teleconnections between growth and the El Niño South Oscillation. The strong dependence of tree on precipitation is worrisome, considering that climate change scenarios forecast increased drought conditions in the Caatinga dry forest. Including more species and expanding dendrochronological studies to more areas would greatly improve our understanding of tree growth and functioning in TDFs. This type of knowledge is essential to assist the conservation, management and restoration of these critical tropical ecosystems.  相似文献   

17.
While previous studies focused on tree growth in pure stands, we reveal that tree resistance and resilience to drought stress can be modified distinctly through species mixing. Our study is based on tree ring measurement on cores from increment boring of 559 trees of Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.), European beech (Fagus sylvatica [L.]) and sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) in South Germany, with half sampled in pure, respectively, mixed stands. Indices for resistance, recovery and resilience were applied for quantifying the tree growth reaction on the episodic drought stress in 1976 and 2003. The following general reaction patterns were found. (i) In pure stands, spruce has the lowest resistance, but the quickest recovery; oak and beech were more resistant, but recover was much slower and they are less resilient. (ii) In mixture, spruce and oak perform as in pure stands, but beech was significantly more resistant and resilient than in monoculture. (iii) Especially when mixed with oak, beech is facilitated. We hypothesise that the revealed water stress release of beech emerges in mixture because of the asynchronous stress reaction pattern of beech and oak and a facilitation of beech by hydraulic lift of water by oak. This facilitation of beech in mixture with oak means a contribution to the frequently reported overyield of beech in mixed versus pure stands. We discuss the far‐reaching implications that these differences in stress response under intra‐ and inter‐specific environments have for forest ecosystem dynamics and management under climate change.  相似文献   

18.
In order to determine the mechanical resistance of several forest tree species to rockfall, an inventory of the type of damage sustained in an active rockfall corridor was carried out in the French Alps. The diameter, spatial position and type of damage incurred were measured in 423 trees. Only 5% of trees had sustained damage above a height of 1.3 m and in damaged trees, 66% of broken or uprooted trees were conifers. Larger trees were more likely to be wounded or dead than smaller trees, although the size of the wounds was relatively smaller in larger trees. The species with the least proportion of damage through stem breakage, uprooting or wounding was European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). Winching tests were carried out on two conifer species, Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) and Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.), as well as European beech, in order to verify the hypothesis that beech was highly resistant to rockfall and that conifers were more susceptible to uprooting or stem breakage. Nineteen trees were winched downhill and the force necessary to cause failure was measured. The energy (E fail) required to break or uproot a tree was then calculated. Most Silver fir trees failed in the stem and Norway spruce usually failed through uprooting. European beech was either uprooted or broke in the stem and was twice as resistant to failure as Silver fir, and three times more resistant than Norway spruce. E fail was strongly related to stem diameter in European beech only, and was significantly higher in this species compared to Norway spruce. Results suggest that European beech would be a better species to plant with regards to protection against rockfall. Nevertheless, all types of different abiotic stresses on any particular alpine site should be considered by the forest manager, as planting only broadleaf species may compromise the protecting capacity of the forest e.g. in the case of snow avalanches.  相似文献   

19.
The quantification of silicon (Si) uptake by tree species is a mandatory step to study the role of forest vegetations in the global cycle of Si. Forest tree species can impact the hydrological output of dissolved Si (DSi) through root induced weathering of silicates but also through Si uptake and restitution via litterfall. Here, monospecific stands of Douglas fir, Norway spruce, Black pine, European beech and oak established in identical soil and climate conditions were used to quantify Si uptake, immobilization and restitution. We measured the Si contents in various compartments of the soil–tree system and we further studied the impact of the recycling of Si by forest trees on the DSi pool. Si is mainly accumulated in leaves and needles in comparison with other tree compartments (branches, stembark and stemwood). The immobilization of Si in tree biomass represents less than 15% of the total Si uptake. Annual Si uptake by oak and European beech stands is 18.5 and 23.3 kg ha?1 year?1, respectively. Black pine has a very low annual Si uptake (2.3 kg ha?1 year?1) in comparison with Douglas fir (30.6 kg ha?1 year?1) and Norway spruce (43.5 kg ha?1 year?1). The recycling of Si by forest trees plays a major role in the continental Si cycle since tree species greatly influence the uptake and restitution of Si. Moreover, we remark that the annual tree uptake is negatively correlated with the annual DSi output at 60 cm depth. The land–ocean fluxes of DSi are certainly influenced by geochemical processes such as weathering of primary minerals and formation of secondary minerals but also by biological processes such as root uptake.  相似文献   

20.
This study investigated the sensitivity of managed boreal forests to climate change, with consequent needs to adapt the management to climate change. Model simulations representing the Finnish territory between 60 and 70 degrees N showed that climate change may substantially change the dynamics of managed boreal forests in northern Europe. This is especially probable at the northern and southern edges of this forest zone. In the north, forest growth may increase, but the special features of northern forests may be diminished. In the south, climate change may create a suboptimal environment for Norway spruce. Dominance of Scots pine may increase on less fertile sites currently occupied by Norway spruce. Birches may compete with Scots pine even in these sites and the dominance of birches may increase. These changes may reduce the total forest growth locally but, over the whole of Finland, total forest growth may increase by 44%, with an increase of 82% in the potential cutting drain. The choice of appropriate species and reduced rotation length may sustain the productivity of forest land under climate change.  相似文献   

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