Testing early warning metrics for drought‐induced tree physiological stress and mortality

Climate change‐driven drought stress has triggered numerous large‐scale tree mortality events in recent decades. Advances in mechanistic understanding and prediction are greatly limited by an inability to detect in situ where trees are likely to die in order to take timely measurements and actions. Thus, algorithms of early warning and detection of drought‐induced tree stress and mortality could have major scientific and societal benefits. Here, we leverage two consecutive droughts in the southwestern United States to develop and test a set of early warning metrics. Using Landsat satellite data, we constructed early warning metrics from the first drought event. We then tested these metrics' ability to predict spatial patterns in tree physiological stress and mortality from the second drought. To test the broader applicability of these metrics, we also examined a separate drought in the Amazon rainforest. The early warning metrics successfully explained subsequent tree mortality in the second drought in the southwestern US, as well as mortality in the independent drought in tropical forests. The metrics also strongly correlated with spatial patterns in tree hydraulic stress underlying mortality, which provides a strong link between tree physiological stress and remote sensing during the severe drought and indicates that the loss of hydraulic function during drought likely mediated subsequent mortality. Thus, early warning metrics provide a critical foundation for elucidating the physiological mechanisms underpinning tree mortality in mature forests and guiding management responses to these climate‐induced disturbances.     

Experimental drought and heat can delay phenological development and reduce foliar and shoot growth in semiarid trees

Higher temperatures associated with climate change are anticipated to trigger an earlier start to the growing season, which could increase the terrestrial C sink strength. Greater variability in the amount and timing of precipitation is also expected with higher temperatures, bringing increased drought stress to many ecosystems. We experimentally assessed the effects of higher temperature and drought on the foliar phenology and shoot growth of mature trees of two semiarid conifer species. We exposed field‐grown trees to a ~45% reduction in precipitation with a rain‐out structure (‘drought’), a ~4.8 °C temperature increase with open‐top chambers (‘heat’), and a combination of both simultaneously (‘drought + heat’). Over the 2013 growing season, drought, heat, and drought + heat treatments reduced shoot and needle growth in piñon pine (Pinus edulis) by ≥39%, while juniper (Juniperus monosperma) had low growth and little response to these treatments. Needle emergence on primary axis branches of piñon pine was delayed in heat, drought, and drought + heat treatments by 19–57 days, while secondary axis branches were less likely to produce needles in the heat treatment, and produced no needles at all in the drought + heat treatment. Growth of shoots and needles, and the timing of needle emergence correlated inversely with xylem water tension and positively with nonstructural carbohydrate concentrations. Our findings demonstrate the potential for delayed phenological development and reduced growth with higher temperatures and drought in tree species that are vulnerable to drought and reveal potential mechanistic links to physiological stress responses. Climate change projections of an earlier and longer growing season with higher temperatures, and consequent increases in terrestrial C sink strength, may be incorrect for regions where plants will face increased drought stress with climate change.     

Widespread drought‐induced tree mortality at dry range edges indicates that climate stress exceeds species' compensating mechanisms

Drought‐induced tree mortality is projected to increase due to climate change, which will have manifold ecological and societal impacts including the potential to weaken or reverse the terrestrial carbon sink. Predictions of tree mortality remain limited, in large part because within‐species variations in ecophysiology due to plasticity or adaptation and ecosystem adjustments could buffer mortality in dry locations. Here, we conduct a meta‐analysis of 50 studies spanning >100 woody plant species globally to quantify how populations within species vary in vulnerability to drought mortality and whether functional traits or climate mediate mortality patterns. We find that mortality predominantly occurs in drier populations and this pattern is more pronounced in species with xylem that can tolerate highly negative water potentials, typically considered to be an adaptive trait for dry regions, and species that experience higher variability in water stress. Our results indicate that climate stress has exceeded physiological and ecosystem‐level tolerance or compensating mechanisms by triggering extensive mortality at dry range edges and provides a foundation for future mortality projections in empirical distribution and mechanistic vegetation models.     

Global change‐type drought‐induced tree mortality: vapor pressure deficit is more important than temperature per se in causing decline in tree health

Drought‐induced tree mortality is occurring across all forested continents and is expected to increase worldwide during the coming century. Regional‐scale forest die‐off influences terrestrial albedo, carbon and water budgets, and land‐surface energy partitioning. Although increased temperatures during drought are widely identified as a critical contributor to exacerbated tree mortality associated with “global‐change‐type drought”, corresponding changes in vapor pressure deficit (D) have rarely been considered explicitly and have not been disaggregated from that of temperature per se. Here, we apply a detailed mechanistic soil–plant–atmosphere model to examine the impacts of drought, increased air temperature (+2°C or +5°C), and increased vapor pressure deficit (D; +1 kPa or +2.5 kPa), singly and in combination, on net primary productivity (NPP) and transpiration and forest responses, especially soil moisture content, leaf water potential, and stomatal conductance. We show that increased D exerts a larger detrimental effect on transpiration and NPP, than increased temperature alone, with or without the imposition of a 3‐month drought. Combined with drought, the effect of increased D on NPP was substantially larger than that of drought plus increased temperature. Thus, the number of days when NPP was zero across the 2‐year simulation was 13 or 14 days in the control and increased temperature scenarios, but increased to approximately 200 days when D was increased. Drought alone increased the number of days of zero NPP to 88, but drought plus increased temperature did not increase the number of days. In contrast, drought and increased D resulted in the number of days when NPP = 0 increasing to 235 (+1 kPa) or 304 days (+2.5 kPa). We conclude that correct identification of the causes of global change‐type mortality events requires explicit consideration of the influence of D as well as its interaction with drought and temperature.     

Relationships between individual‐tree mortality and water‐balance variables indicate positive trends in water stress‐induced tree mortality across North America

Accounting for water stress‐induced tree mortality in forest productivity models remains a challenge due to uncertainty in stress tolerance of tree populations. In this study, logistic regression models were developed to assess species‐specific relationships between probability of mortality (P_m) and drought, drawing on 8.1 million observations of change in vital status (m) of individual trees across North America. Drought was defined by standardized (relative) values of soil water content (W_s,z) and reference evapotranspiration (ET_r,z) at each field plot. The models additionally tested for interactions between the water‐balance variables, aridity class of the site (AC), and estimated tree height (h). Considering drought improved model performance in 95 (80) per cent of the 64 tested species during calibration (cross‐validation). On average, sensitivity to relative drought increased with site AC (i.e. aridity). Interaction between water‐balance variables and estimated tree height indicated that drought sensitivity commonly decreased during early height development and increased during late height development, which may reflect expansion of the root system and decreasing whole‐plant, leaf‐specific hydraulic conductance, respectively. Across North America, predictions suggested that changes in the water balance caused mortality to increase from 1.1% yr^?1 in 1951 to 2.0% yr^?1 in 2014 (a net change of 0.9 ± 0.3% yr^?1). Interannual variation in mortality also increased, driven by increasingly severe droughts in 1988, 1998, 2006, 2007 and 2012. With strong confidence, this study indicates that water stress is a common cause of tree mortality. With weak‐to‐moderate confidence, this study strengthens previous claims attributing positive trends in mortality to increasing levels of water stress. This ‘learn‐as‐we‐go’ approach – defined by sampling rare drought events as they continue to intensify – will help to constrain the hydraulic limits of dominant tree species and the viability of boreal and temperate forest biomes under continued climate change.     

Changes in structure of over‐ and midstory tree species in a Mediterranean‐type forest after an extreme drought‐associated heatwave

Worldwide, extreme climatic events such as drought and heatwaves are associated with forest mortality. However, the precise drivers of tree mortality at individual and stand levels vary considerably, with substantial gaps in knowledge across studies in biomes and continents. In 2010–2011, a drought‐associated heatwave occurred in south‐western Australia and drove sudden and rapid forest canopy collapse. Working in the Northern Jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) Forest, we quantified the response of key overstory (E. marginata, Corymbia calophylla) and midstory (Banksia grandis, Allocasuarina fraseriana) tree species to the extreme climate event. Using transects spanning a gradient of drought impacts (minimal (50–100 m), transitional (100–150 m) and severe (30–60 m)), tree species mortality in relation to stand characteristics (stand basal area and stem density) and edaphic factors (soil depth) was determined. We show differential mortality between the two overstory species and the two midstory species corresponding to the drought‐associated heatwave. The dominant overstory species, E. marginata, had significantly higher mortality (~19%) than C. calophylla (~7%) in the severe zone. The midstory species, B. grandis, demonstrated substantially higher mortality (~59%) than A. fraseriana (~4%) in the transitional zone. Banksia grandis exhibited a substantial shift in structure in response to the drought‐associated heatwave in relation to tree size, basal area and soil depth. This study illustrates the role of climate extremes in driving ecosystem change and highlights the critical need to identify and quantify the resulting impact to help predict future forest die‐off events and to underpin forest management and conservation.     

Eco‐evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green‐up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site‐specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.     

Shift from facilitative to neutral interactions by the cushion plant Silene acaulis along a primary succession gradient

Background

The stress‐gradient hypothesis predicts a shift from facilitative to competitive plant interactions with decreasing abiotic stress. This has been supported by studies along elevation and temperature gradients, but also challenged by the hypothesis of a facilitation collapse at extremely harsh sites. Although facilitation is known to be important in primary succession, few studies have examined these hypotheses along primary succession gradients.

Aim

To examine whether there is a relationship between the presence of the circumpolar cushion plant Silene acaulis and other species, and if so, whether there is a shift between positive and negative interactions along a primary succession gradient in a glacier foreland.

Location

Finse, southern Norway.

Methods

We examined the performance of the common alpine forb Bistorta vivipara, species richness of vascular plants, bryophytes and lichens, and the number of seedlings and fertile vascular plants in S. acaulis cushions, and control plots without S. acaulis, along a succession gradient with increasing distance from a glacier front, and thus decreasing abiotic stress. To examine if S. acaulis cushions modify the abiotic environment, we recorded soil temperature, moisture, organic content and pH in cushions and control plots.

Results

Bistorta vivipara performed better, as shown by bigger leaves in S. acaulis cushions compared to control plots in the harshest part of the gradient close to the glacier. There were few differences in B. vivipara performance between cushion and control plots in the more benign environment further away from the glacier. This suggests a shift from facilitative to mainly neutral interactions by S. acaulis on the performance of B. vivipara with decreasing abiotic stress. A trend, although not significant, of higher vascular species richness and fertility inside S. acaulis cushions along the whole gradient, suggests that S. acaulis also facilitates community‐level species richness. The causal mechanism of this facilitation is likely that the cushions buffer extreme temperatures.

Conclusions

Our results support the stress‐gradient hypothesis for the relationship between the cushion plant S. acaulis and the performance of a single species along a primary succession gradient in a glacier foreland. S. acaulis also tended to increase vascular plant species richness and fertility regardless of stress level along the gradient, suggesting facilitation at the community level. We found no collapse of facilitation at the most stressful end of the gradient in this alpine glacier foreland.     

Wood anatomy and carbon‐isotope discrimination support long‐term hydraulic deterioration as a major cause of drought‐induced dieback

Hydraulic impairment due to xylem embolism and carbon starvation are the two proposed mechanisms explaining drought‐induced forest dieback and tree death. Here, we evaluate the relative role played by these two mechanisms in the long‐term by quantifying wood‐anatomical traits (tracheid size and area of parenchyma rays) and estimating the intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE) from carbon isotopic discrimination. We selected silver fir and Scots pine stands in NE Spain with ongoing dieback processes and compared trees showing contrasting vigour (declining vs nondeclining trees). In both species earlywood tracheids in declining trees showed smaller lumen area with thicker cell wall, inducing a lower theoretical hydraulic conductivity. Parenchyma ray area was similar between the two vigour classes. Wet spring and summer conditions promoted the formation of larger lumen areas, particularly in the case of nondeclining trees. Declining silver firs presented a lower iWUE than conspecific nondeclining trees, but the reverse pattern was observed in Scots pine. The described patterns in wood anatomical traits and iWUE are coherent with a long‐lasting deterioration of the hydraulic system in declining trees prior to their dieback. Retrospective quantifications of lumen area permit to forecast dieback in declining trees 2–5 decades before growth decline started. Wood anatomical traits provide a robust tool to reconstruct the long‐term capacity of trees to withstand drought‐induced dieback.     

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide‐ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north

Choosing drought‐tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long‐term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change.     

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season‐average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first‐year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth‐year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow‐free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low‐elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high‐elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low‐provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High‐ and low‐elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high‐provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.     

Shifts from competition to facilitation between a foundation tree and a pioneer shrub across spatial and temporal scales in a semiarid woodland

* Theoretical and empirical research has supported the hypothesis that plant-plant interactions change from competition to facilitation with increasing abiotic stress. However, the consistency of such changes has been questioned in arid and semiarid ecosystems. * During a drought in the semiarid south-western USA, we used observations and a field experiment to examine the interactions between juveniles of a foundation tree (Pinyon pine, Pinus edulis) and a common shrub (Apache plume, Fallugia paradoxa) in replicated areas of high and low stress. * The presence of F. paradoxa reduced P. edulis performance at low-stress sites, but had the opposite effect at high-stress sites. However, the intensity of the interactions depended on temporal variation in climate and age of P. edulis. Both above- and below-ground factors contributed to competition, while only above-ground factors contributed to facilitation. * These results support the hypothesis that interactions can change from competition to facilitation as abiotic stress increases in semiarid environments. A shift from competition to facilitation may be important for the recovery of P. edulis and other foundation species that have experienced large-scale mortality during recent droughts.     

Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process‐based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear‐edges

Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought‐prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear‐edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear‐edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree‐ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process‐based Vaganov–Shashkin‐Lite growth model and climate–growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO₂ emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear‐edge. By contrast, growth of high‐elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of ?10.7% and ?16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear‐edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear‐edge stands. Our modeling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate forest vulnerability to warmer conditions.     

Shrub facilitation drives tree establishment in a semiarid fog‐dependent ecosystem

Questions

The exceptional occurrence of tall rain forest patches on foggy coastal mountaintops, surrounded by extensive xerophytic shrublands, suggests an important role of plant–plant interactions in the origin and persistence of these patches in semi‐arid Chile. We asked whether facilitation by shrubs can explain the growth and survival of rain forest tree species, and whether shrub effects depend on the identity of the shrub species itself, the drought tolerance of the tree species and the position of shrubs in regard to wind direction.

Location

Open area–shrubland–forest matrix, Fray Jorge Forest National Park, Chile.

Methods

We recorded survival after 12 years of a ~3600 tree saplings plantation (originally ~30‐cm tall individuals) of Aextoxicon punctatum, Myrceugenia correifolia and Drimys winteri placed outside forests, beneath the shrub Baccharis vernalis, and in open (shrub‐free) areas. We assessed the effects of neighbouring shrubs and soil humidity on survival and growth along a gradient related to the direction of fog movement.

Results

B. vernalis had a clear facilitative effect on tree establishment and survival since, after ~12 years, saplings only survived beneath the shrub canopy. Long‐term survival strongly depended on tree species identity, drought tolerance and position along the soil moisture gradient, with higher survival of A. punctatum (>35%) and M. correifolia (>14%) at sites on wind‐ and fog‐exposed shrubland areas. Sites occupied by the shrub Aristeguietia salvia were unsuitable for trees, presumably due to drier conditions than under B. vernalis.

Conclusions

Interactions between shrubs and fog‐dependent tree species in dry areas revealed a strong, long‐lasting facilitation effect on planted tree's survival and growth. Shrubs acted as benefactors, providing sites suitable for tree growth. Sapling mortality in the shrubland interior was caused by lower soil moisture, the consequence of lower fog loads in the air and thus insufficient facilitation. While B. vernalis was a key ecosystem engineer (nurse) and intercepted fog water that dripped to trees planted underneath, drier sites with A. salvia were unsuitable for trees. Consequently, nurse effects related to water input are strongly site and species specific, with facilitation by shrubs providing a plausible explanation for the initiation of forest patches in this semi‐arid landscape.     

Time‐since‐fire and climate interact to affect the structural recovery of an Australian semi‐arid plant community

How does time‐since‐fire influence the structural recovery of semi‐arid, eucalypt‐dominated Murray‐Mallee shrublands after fire, and is recovery affected by spatial variation in climate? We assessed the structure and dynamics of a hummock grass, Triodia scariosa N.T. Burb, and mallee eucalypts – two key structural components of mallee shrublands – using a >100 year time‐since‐fire chronosequence. The relative influence of climatic variables, both individually and combined with time‐since‐fire, was modelled to account for spatial variation in the recovery of vegetation structural components. Time‐since‐fire was the primary determinant of the structural recovery of T. scariosa and eucalypts. However, climate, notably mean annual rainfall and rainfall variability, also influenced the recovery of the eucalypt overstorey, T. scariosa cover and mean hummock height. We observed that (i) the mean number of live eucalypt stems per individual decreased while mean individual basal area increased, (ii) cover of T. scariosa peaked at ~30 years post‐fire and gradually decreased thereafter, and (iii) the ‘hummock’ form of T. scariosa occurred throughout the chronosequence, whereas the ‘ring’ form tended not to occur until ~30 years post‐fire. Time‐since‐fire was the key determinant of the structural recovery of eucalypt‐dominated mallee shrublands, but there is geographical variation in recovery related to rainfall and its variability. Fire regimes are likely to have different effects across the geographic range of mallee shrublands.     

From pattern to process: linking intrinsic water‐use efficiency to drought‐induced forest decline

The rise in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (Ca) has been related to tree growth enhancement and increasing intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE). However, the extent that rising Ca has led to increased long‐term iWUE and whether climate could explain deviations from expected Ca‐induced growth enhancement are still poorly understood. The aim of this research was to use Ca and local climatic variability to explain changes during the 20th century in growth and tree ring and needle δ¹³C in declining and nondeclining Abies alba stands from the Spanish Pyrenees, near the southern distribution limit of this species. The temporal trends of iWUE were calculated under three theoretical scenarios for the regulation of plant‐gas exchange at increasing Ca. We tested different linear mixed‐effects models by multimodel selection criteria to predict basal area increment (BAI), a proxy of tree radial growth, using these scenarios and local temperature together with precipitation data as predictors. The theoretical scenario assuming the strongest response to Ca explained 66–81% of the iWUE variance and 28–56% of the observed BAI variance, whereas local climatic variables together explained less than 11–21% of the BAI variance. Our results are consistent with a drought‐induced limitation of the tree growth response to rising CO₂ and a decreasing rate of iWUE improvement from the 1980s onward in declining A. alba stands subjected to lower water availability.