Assessing the influence of historic net and gross land changes on the carbon fluxes of Europe

Legacy effects of land cover/use on carbon fluxes require considering both present and past land cover/use change dynamics. To assess past land use dynamics, model‐based reconstructions of historic land cover/use are needed. Most historic reconstructions consider only the net area difference between two time steps (net changes) instead of accounting for all area gains and losses (gross changes). Studies about the impact of gross and net land change accounting methods on the carbon balance are still lacking. In this study, we assessed historic changes in carbon in soils for five land cover/use types and of carbon in above‐ground biomass of forests. The assessment focused on Europe for the period 1950 to 2010 with decadal time steps at 1‐km spatial resolution using a bookkeeping approach. To assess the implications of gross land change data, we also used net land changes for comparison. Main contributors to carbon sequestration between 1950 and 2010 were afforestation and cropland abandonment leading to 14.6 PgC sequestered carbon (of which 7.6 PgC was in forest biomass). Sequestration was highest for old‐growth forest areas. A sequestration dip was reached during the 1970s due to changes in forest management practices. Main contributors to carbon emissions were deforestation (1.7 PgC) and stable cropland areas on peaty soils (0.8 PgC). In total, net fluxes summed up to 203 TgC yr^?1 (98 TgC yr^?1 in forest biomass and 105 TgC yr^?1 in soils). For areas that were subject to land changes in both reconstructions (35% of total area), the differences in carbon fluxes were about 68%. Overall for Europe the difference between accounting for either gross or net land changes led to 7% difference (up to 11% per decade) in carbon fluxes with systematically higher fluxes for gross land change data.     

新疆玛纳斯河流域2000-2010年土地利用/覆盖变化及影响因素

在2000年和2010年两期遥感影像解译的基础上,从土地利用类型的结构、变化速率、变化方向及土地利用程度等方面分析了玛纳斯河流域土地利用的变化特征,并分析了影响土地利用变化的主要因素及不同因素之间的交互作用。结果表明:(1)近10年来,流域土地利用程度增强,人工绿洲呈扩张趋势,耕地和城乡工矿居民用地大量增加,林地和未利用地减少;上游地区草地和冰川积雪覆盖地面积增加。(2)耕地向内部外部双向扩张,主要来源于林地、荒漠和盐碱地;新增草地以山地裸地和山前荒漠的转变为主;林地主要转变为中游的耕地和城乡工矿居民用地及上游的草地和裸地;城乡工矿居民用地的增加主要来自荒漠、耕地和林地;未利用地变化以向人工绿洲土地类型的转变为主。(3)上游土地利用变化主要受气候变化的影响,降水量增加可能是冰川积雪面积扩张的主要原因;中游人类活动密集,耕地和城乡工矿居民用地扩张,荒漠植被退化;下游受气候和人类活动共同作用,尾闾湖泊萎缩,河岸和湖周植被退化。     

基于土地利用/覆被变化的荒漠绿洲碳储量动态评估

以典型的荒漠绿洲区为研究对象,基于不同时期土地利用/覆被类型图,运用Bookkeeping模型,结合土壤、植被碳密度基础资料及调查数据,评估了近30年临泽绿洲土地利用/覆被变化特征及其对碳储量的影响。结果表明:(1)临泽荒漠绿洲区的土地利用/覆被变化特征主要表现为:居民及建设用地、耕地、林地呈增加趋势,增幅分别为90.2%、75%、46.5%;盐碱地、水体、沙地、荒漠草地则呈减少趋势,减幅分别为73.9%、67.8%、46.2%、5.5%。(2) 30 a耕地面积增加了269.38 km~2,其中耕地开垦面积为372.57 km~2,开垦主要来源于盐碱地、荒漠草地和沙地,分别占耕地开垦面积的24.7%、24.4%和21.05%。耕地转变为其他土地覆被类型的面积为103.19 km~2,转变后的主要去向分别是居民及建设用地、盐碱地和荒漠草地,分别占耕地转变为其他土地覆被类型面积的32.78%、17.8%和15.37%。(3)土地利用/覆被变化导致总碳储量增加5.89×10~5t,其中土壤碳储量增加量为4.02×10~5t,植被碳储量增加量为1.86×10~5t;耕地变化使碳储量增加4.91×10~5t,其中使碳储量增加的转变分别是荒漠草地-耕地、沙地-耕地、盐碱地-耕地、耕地-林地,相反的转变则使碳储量减少。总体来看,临泽荒漠绿洲土地利用/覆被面积和结构均发生了变化,耕地开垦为最主要的土地利用/覆被变化,土地利用/覆被变化导致碳储量总体呈增加趋势,耕地变化是影响碳储量变化的主要因素。     

疏勒河中游土地利用与景观格局动态

利用1976年Landsat MSS、1989年Landsat TM、2000年Landsat ETM+和2010年TM遥感影像,运用GIS和景观生态学方法,分析了1976-2010年疏勒河中游玉门市土地利用/覆被和景观格局的变化.结果表明:1976-2010年间,玉门市土地利用类型转移的主要方向是草地和戈壁转化为耕地、耕地转化为建设用地、草地转化为戈壁;土地利用变化经历了“缓慢变化-急剧变化-显著变化”的过程,景观密度持续增大,最大斑块指数先增大后减小,面积加权形状指数增大,形状趋于不规则;斑块间的最邻近距离减小,景观逐渐向具有多种要素的密集格局演变,更加破碎;不同斑块间的分离度减小;景观的多样性和均匀度先减小后增加.农业人口增长和经济发展是研究区土地利用/覆被变化的最直接驱动力,气候和政策因素也是重要的影响因素.     

黑河中上游地区2000-2010年土地利用变化及水土保持服务功能

基于遥感影像数据,分析了黑河中上游地区2000年到2010年土地利用变化,在此基础上,从上游、中游以及整个区域的角度综合评价了该区域的水源涵养和土壤保持生态系统服务功能物质量变化。研究结果表明:1研究区60%以上为未利用地,2000—2010年,耕地、林地和未利用地面积大量增加,草地和水域面积减少。2耕地增加以荒漠和草地转入为主;林地转入表现为草地和荒漠造林,转出主要为林地荒漠化;草地转出主要去向为造林和荒漠化,而增加主要来源于冰雪覆盖地和荒漠;未利用地增加主要来源于草地的退化。3研究区土地利用程度较低,由东南向西北递减,2000—2010年,上游土地利用程度有所降低,中游大部分地区呈上升趋势。4由于上游山区林地面积的增加,植被覆盖下土壤的水源涵养量显著增加,土壤贮水量增加了0.764×108t。5土壤保持量由1.860×108t增加到1.899×108t,主要原因为草地转化为林地。在气候变化背景下,黑河流域应控制上游地区人工林面积,减少林地蒸腾量,以增加下游可用水量;适当控制中游地区耕地面积的扩张趋势,保证湿地、草地等自然生态系统生态用水量,维持流域山地-绿洲-荒漠系统的稳定,进而持续发挥生态系统土壤保持等功能。     

人类活动对资源型城市生态系统服务价值的影响——以鄂尔多斯为例

资源型城市通过资源开采驱动城市快速发展,同时通过生态恢复维持生态系统稳定。探究典型人类活动对资源型城市生态系统服务的消极和积极影响对于可持续城市建设具有重要意义。以鄂尔多斯市为例,基于1990-2018年土地利用/覆盖、NDVI等数据,修订了生态系统服务价值计算方法,量化了区域生态系统服务价值的时空格局,进而评估了人类活动过程对生态系统服务的影响。研究结果表明,研究时段内鄂尔多斯市城镇建设用地、林地和草地面积总体增加,耕地及未利用土地面积减少。区域生态系统服务总价值总体呈上升趋势,从1990年的2312.24亿元上升至2018年的2421.38亿元,增加了4.72%。2000年以后鄂尔多斯市退耕还林、未利用地植被恢复等措施使得生态系统服务价值增加了113.53亿元,同期城镇建设用地扩展占用生态生产用地导致生态系统服务价值减少了91.36亿元,生态建设的积极影响大于城镇建设用地扩展的消极影响。     

土地利用变化对土壤有机碳的影响研究进展

土壤有机碳是陆地碳库的重要组成部分,也是当前全球碳循环和全球变化研究的热点。土地利用/覆被变化及土地管理变化通过影响土壤有机碳的储量和分布,进而影响温室气体排放和陆地生态系统的碳通量。研究土地利用变化影响下的土壤有机碳储量及其动态变化规律,有助于加深理解全球气候变化与土地利用变化之间的关系。在阅读国内外有关文献的基础上,分别从土地利用及其管理方式变化的角度,概括了土地利用变化对土壤有机碳的影响过程与机理;针对当前研究的两大类方法,即实验方法和模型方法,分类详细介绍了它们各自的特点以及存在的一些问题。在此基础上,提出今后土地利用变化对土壤有机碳影响研究的发展趋势。     

南昌市植被覆盖度时空演变及其对非气候因素的响应

植被是陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,植被覆盖在空间上的差异是气候和人类活动交互作用的结果。随着城市扩张,人类活动的加剧及不合理的土地利用方式导致了很多生态问题,对植被覆盖有重大影响。基于地形调节植被指数的像元二分模型,利用3期landsat-5 TM影像图分析南昌市植被覆盖度时空演变特征,并结合DEM数据分析植被覆盖度及变化的地形梯度分异规律,利用3期土地利用图量化植被覆盖度变化对土地利用方式转变的响应。结果显示:1)研究区2001—2010年植被覆盖度从0.54下降为0.42,总体上呈退化趋势,2005年之后植被退化有所减缓;2)植被覆盖度的地形梯度变化显著。植被覆盖度与高程呈高度的正相关性,在坡度0—22°梯度带呈现较高的正相关,在坡度22—40°梯度带呈现较高的负相关。80%以上植被覆盖变化集中在海拔30 m以下、坡度4°以下的区域;3)植被覆盖度变化是地形与土地利用综合作用的结果。在平原低丘区,土地利用行为是植被覆盖变化的主导因素。城市的建设和扩张导致占用耕地、林地和草地,以及大面积的撂荒、伐林等土地活动对植被覆盖退化的贡献率为50%以上,是植被覆盖退化的主要原因,而退耕还林还草、废弃地复垦、后备资源开发为植被覆盖增加的主要原因。可为平原低丘区生态环境监测和构建环境友好型土地利用模式提供科学依据。     

CO2 emissions from land‐use change affected more by nitrogen cycle,than by the choice of land‐cover data

The high uncertainty in land‐based CO₂ fluxes estimates is thought to be mainly due to uncertainty in not only quantifying historical changes among forests, croplands, and grassland, but also due to different processes included in calculation methods. Inclusion of a nitrogen (N) cycle in models is fairly recent and strongly affects carbon (C) fluxes. In this study, for the first time, we use a model with C and N dynamics with three distinct historical reconstructions of land‐use and land‐use change (LULUC) to quantify LULUC emissions and uncertainty that includes the integrated effects of not only climate and CO₂ but also N. The modeled global average emissions including N dynamics for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000–2005 were 1.8 ± 0.2, 1.7 ± 0.2, and 1.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr^?1, respectively, (mean and range across LULUC data sets). The emissions from tropics were 0.8 ± 0.2, 0.8 ± 0.2, and 0.7 ± 0.3 GtC yr^?1, and the non tropics were 1.1 ± 0.5, 0.9 ± 0.2, and 0.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr^?1. Compared to previous studies that did not include N dynamics, modeled net LULUC emissions were higher, particularly in the non tropics. In the model, N limitation reduces regrowth rates of vegetation in temperate areas resulting in higher net emissions. Our results indicate that exclusion of N dynamics leads to an underestimation of LULUC emissions by around 70% in the non tropics, 10% in the tropics, and 40% globally in the 1990s. The differences due to inclusion/exclusion of the N cycle of 0.1 GtC yr^?1 in the tropics, 0.6 GtC yr^?1 in the non tropics, and 0.7 GtC yr^?1 globally (mean across land‐cover data sets) in the 1990s were greater than differences due to the land‐cover data in the non tropics and globally (0.2 GtC yr^?1). While land‐cover information is improving with satellite and inventory data, this study indicates the importance of accounting for different processes, in particular the N cycle.     

Towards an integrated global framework to assess the impacts of land use and management change on soil carbon: current capability and future vision

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 methodologies commonly underpin project‐scale carbon accounting for changes in land use and management and are used in frameworks for Life Cycle Assessment and carbon footprinting of food and energy crops. These methodologies were intended for use at large spatial scales. This can introduce error in predictions at finer spatial scales. There is an urgent need for development and implementation of higher tier methodologies that can be applied at fine spatial scales (e.g. farm/project/plantation) for food and bioenergy crop greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting to facilitate decision making in the land‐based sectors. Higher tier methods have been defined by IPCC and must be well evaluated and operate across a range of domains (e.g. climate region, soil type, crop type, topography), and must account for land use transitions and management changes being implemented. Furthermore, the data required to calibrate and drive the models used at higher tiers need to be available and applicable at fine spatial resolution, covering the meteorological, soil, cropping system and management domains, with quantified uncertainties. Testing the reliability of the models will require data either from sites with repeated measurements or from chronosequences. We review current global capability for estimating changes in soil carbon at fine spatial scales and present a vision for a framework capable of quantifying land use change and management impacts on soil carbon, which could be used for addressing issues such as bioenergy and biofuel sustainability, food security, forest protection, and direct/indirect impacts of land use change. The aim of this framework is to provide a globally accepted standard of carbon measurement and modelling appropriate for GHG accounting that could be applied at project to national scales (allowing outputs to be scaled up to a country level), to address the impacts of land use and land management change on soil carbon.     

Effects of land use change and management on the European cropland carbon balance

We model the carbon balance of European croplands between 1901 and 2000 in response to land use and management changes. The process‐based ORCHIDEE‐STICS model is applied here in a spatially explicit framework. We reconstructed land cover changes, together with an idealized history of agro‐technology. These management parameters include the treatment of straw and stubble residues, application of mineral fertilizers, improvement of cultivar species and tillage. The model is integrated for wheat and maize during the period 1901–2000 forced by climate each 1/2‐hour, and by atmospheric CO₂, land cover change and agro‐technology each year. Several tests are performed to identify the most sensitive agro‐technological parameters that control the net biome productivity (NBP) in the 1990s, with NBP equaling for croplands the soil C balance. The current NBP is a small sink of 0.16 t C ha^?1 yr^?1. The value of NBP per unit area reflects past and current management, and to a minor extent the shrinking areas of arable land consecutive to abandonment during the 20th Century. The uncertainty associated with NBP is large, with a 1‐sigma error of 0.18 t C ha^?1 yr^?1 obtained from a qualitative, but comprehensive budget of various error terms. The NBP uncertainty is dominated by unknown historical agro‐technology changes (47%) and model structure (27%), with error in climate forcing playing a minor role. A major improvement to the framework would consist in using a larger number of representative crops. The uncertainty of historical land‐use change derived from three different reconstructions, has a surprisingly small effect on NBP (0.01 t C ha^?1 yr^?1) because cropland area remained stable during the past 20 years in all the tested land use forcing datasets. Regional cross‐validation of modeled NBP against soil C inventory measurements shows that our results are consistent with observations, within the uncertainties of both inventories and model. Our estimation of cropland NBP is however likely to be biased towards a sink, given that inventory data from different regions consistently indicate a small source whereas we model a small sink.     

Richer histories for more relevant policies: 42 years of tree cover loss and gain in Southeast Sulawesi,Indonesia

Understandings of contemporary forest cover loss are critical for policy but have come at the expense of long‐term, multidirectional analyses of land cover change. This is a critical gap given (i) profound reconfigurations in land use and land control over the past several decades and (ii) evidence of widespread ‘woodland resurgence’ throughout the tropics. In this study, we argue that recent advancements within the field of land change science provide new opportunities to address this gap. In turn, we suggest that multidecadal and multidirectional analyses of land cover change can facilitate richer social analyses of land cover change and more relevant conservation policies and practice. Our argument is grounded in a case study from Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. Using a novel analytical platform, Google Earth Engine, and open access to high‐quality Landsat data, we map land cover change in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, from 1972 to 2014. We find that tree cover loss constitutes the single largest net change over the period 1972–2014 but that gross rates of tree cover gain were three times higher than gross loss rates from 1972 to 1995 and equivalent to loss rates from 1995 to 2014. We suggest the smallholder tree crop economy likely produced both forest loss and Imperata grassland restoration in this region. This case points to the need to expand rather than collapse the baselines used to study carbon and biodiversity change in tropical regions. It also demonstrates the possible utility of applying such methods to other regions.     

Historical land‐use and landscape change in southern Sweden and implications for present and future biodiversity

The two major aims of this study are (1) To test the performance of the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) to quantify past landscape changes using historical maps and related written sources, and (2) to use the LRA and map reconstructions for a better understanding of the origin of landscape diversity and the recent loss of species diversity. Southern Sweden, hemiboreal vegetation zone. The LRA was applied on pollen records from three small bogs for four time windows between AD 1700 and 2010. The LRA estimates of % cover for woodland/forest, grassland, wetland, and cultivated land were compared with those extracted from historical maps within 3‐km radius around each bog. Map‐extracted land‐use categories and pollen‐based LRA estimates (in % cover) of the same land‐use categories show a reasonable agreement in several cases; when they do not agree, the assumptions used in the data (maps)‐model (LRA) comparison are a better explanation of the discrepancies between the two than possible biases of the LRA modeling approach. Both the LRA reconstructions and the historical maps reveal between‐site differences in landscape characteristics through time, but they demonstrate comparable, profound transformations of the regional and local landscapes over time and space due to the agrarian reforms in southern Sweden during the 18th and 19th centuries. The LRA was found to be the most reasonable approach so far to reconstruct quantitatively past landscape changes from fossil pollen data. The existing landscape diversity in the region at the beginning of the 18th century had its origin in the long‐term regional and local vegetation and land‐use history over millennia. Agrarian reforms since the 18th century resulted in a dramatic loss of landscape diversity and evenness in both time and space over the last two centuries leading to a similarly dramatic loss of species (e.g., beetles).     

A Land System representation for global assessments and land‐use modeling

Current global scale land‐change models used for integrated assessments and climate modeling are based on classifications of land cover. However, land‐use management intensity and livestock keeping are also important aspects of land use, and are an integrated part of land systems. This article aims to classify, map, and to characterize Land Systems (LS) at a global scale and analyze the spatial determinants of these systems. Besides proposing such a classification, the article tests if global assessments can be based on globally uniform allocation rules. Land cover, livestock, and agricultural intensity data are used to map LS using a hierarchical classification method. Logistic regressions are used to analyze variation in spatial determinants of LS. The analysis of the spatial determinants of LS indicates strong associations between LS and a range of socioeconomic and biophysical indicators of human‐environment interactions. The set of identified spatial determinants of a LS differs among regions and scales, especially for (mosaic) cropland systems, grassland systems with livestock, and settlements. (Semi‐)Natural LS have more similar spatial determinants across regions and scales. Using LS in global models is expected to result in a more accurate representation of land use capturing important aspects of land systems and land architecture: the variation in land cover and the link between land‐use intensity and landscape composition. Because the set of most important spatial determinants of LS varies among regions and scales, land‐change models that include the human drivers of land change are best parameterized at sub‐global level, where similar biophysical, socioeconomic and cultural conditions prevail in the specific regions.     

Changes in Soil Properties Following 55 Years of Secondary Forest Succession at Fort Benning,Georgia, U.S.A.

We present results on changes in soil properties following land use change over an approximately 55‐year period at Fort Benning, Georgia, U.S.A. Soil cores were taken at 129 locations that were categorized as reforested (field/bare ground in 1944 and forest in 1999), disturbed (field/bare ground in 1944 and 1999), or reference forests (forest in 1944 and 1999). Soil disturbance included historic agriculture (pre‐1944) and military training (post‐1944). Density in mineral soils exhibited a historic land use legacy effect (reference < reforested < disturbed). Rates of change in bulk density decreased with depth and estimated total times to reach reference forest levels ranged from 83 (0–10 cm) to 165 (30–40 cm) years. A land use legacy effect on C stock was apparent in the O‐horizon and in 30‐ to 40‐cm soil increment (reference > reforested > disturbed). Soil C stock in all other increments and in particulate organic matter was affected by disturbance; however, no legacy was apparent (reference = reforested > disturbed). For the entire soil profile (O‐horizon to 40 cm), rate of C accrual was 28 g m⁻² yr⁻¹ (1.5%/yr). Nitrogen stocks were affected by disturbance in the O‐horizon and 0‐ to 10‐cm increment; however, no legacy effect was detected (reference = reforested > disturbed). Nitrogen accumulated at 0.56 g m⁻² yr⁻¹ (0.6%/yr) for the entire soil profile. At Fort Benning, soil C and N stocks of reforested stands were similar to those of reference forested stands after approximately 55 years. However, soil bulk density was greater on reforested stands than reference forest stands at 55 years and may require an additional century to reach reference levels.     

资源型城市土地利用转型及其对生境质量的影响——以乌海市为例

资源型城市前期发展导致了生境丧失或退化,实现高质量转型需要深入理解城市转型与生态环境质量之间的关系,土地利用转型特征及其对生境质量的影响规律研究为此提供依据与支撑。以资源型城市--乌海市为研究区,通过地学信息图谱和InVEST模型探究2005-2018年乌海市土地利用转型特征、生境质量时空变化及土地利用转型对生境质量的影响。结果表明：（1）2005-2018年乌海市土地利用变化趋势发生改变,土地利用转型明显,土地利用变化图谱单元数量逐渐增加78.14%,分布范围逐渐广泛。主要表现为草地与建设用地、采矿用地之间的相互转化,第一阶段（2005-2015年）草地大面积减少,建设用地和采矿用地大面积增加,第二阶段（2015-2018年）趋势相反。（2）乌海市生境质量变化呈现先强退化后弱提升趋势。2005-2015年乌海市18.75%的区域生境质量退化,提升面积较小;2015-2018年生境质量提升面积略大于退化面积。（3）2005-2015年草地向采矿用地、建设用地转化是区域生境质量降低的主要原因,2015-2018年区域生境质量提升的主导因素是采矿用地和建设用地向草地转化。研究结果揭示了资源型城市土地利用转型过程中生境质量的响应规律,可为资源型城市土地利用转型决策提供参考。     

Land Transitions in the Tropics: Going Beyond the Case Studies

Estimates of the percent of Earth's land surface that has either been transformed or degraded by human activity range between 39 and 50 percent, with agriculture accounting for the vast majority of these changes. Although much of the focus of research on land use and cover change in the tropics has been on deforestation, ongoing socioeconomic changes both locally and globally have made land transitions in the tropics extremely fluid. In addition, feedbacks between land cover change and human behavior constrain the extent and trajectories of land transitions. The sustainability of land use systems in the tropics depends on an understanding of coupled human–natural systems that can lead to general frameworks for management and prediction. The unprecedented availability of land use/cover data together with ecological data collected at large spatial scales offer exciting opportunities for advancing our understanding of socioecological systems. We rely on six studies of land transitions in the tropics to illustrate some promising approaches and pose critical questions to guide this body of research.     

晋西北生态脆弱区土地利用动态变化及驱动力

基于遥感和GIS技术,结合相关统计资料,以典型生态脆弱区晋西北为研究对象,利用获取的1980、1990、2000及2010年4期土地利用信息,对该区1980—2010年的土地利用动态变化特征及驱动因素进行分析.结果表明： 1980—2010年,研究区土地利用结构发生了明显变化,耕地面积持续减少,草地和林地面积分别经历了增-减-增和减-增-减的过程,工矿居民地面积持续增加,水域和未利用地面积持续减少.耕地主要流向草地和林地;工矿居民地的增加主要以耕地面积的减少为代价;减少的水域面积转为草地和耕地;未利用地的持续减少则是由于生态工程实施和城市扩张占用所致.2000年之前,研究区总体土地利用变化程度高于后期;单一土地利用动态度的变化,以工矿居民地、未利用地及林地和草地的变化程度较剧烈.驱动力分析表明,人口增加和经济发展共同驱动了区域耕地和工矿居民地的演变;多个林业生态工程的实施是驱动林草面积变化的主要对策因素;干旱化加剧的气候特征是水域面积持续减少及林地恢复较慢的主要驱动因素.     

珠江源区生境质量对土地利用变化的时空响应

生境质量评估给探究土地利用变化与生物多样性之间的关联机制提供了有效接口。采用InVEST模型评估2000—2020年间珠江源区生境质量时空演变特征,衡量土地利用变化对生境质量的影响。结果表明: 研究期间,建设用地变化幅度最大,面积增加321.48 km²,草地面积降低最显著。珠江源区生境质量整体处于较高水平,呈小幅下降趋势,低值区集中于城镇中心和农业主产区,南部和北部山地生境质量高。生境质量变化的冷点在南盘江沿岸曲沾坝子的聚集效应最显著,热点数量少且分布零散。在各类自然保护地中,会泽驾车自然保护区生境质量最低,珠江源自然保护区生境质量有轻微降低态势,主要原因是局部地区草地向耕地的转变。土地功能变化驱使的生境质量退化贡献率是改善贡献率的5.6倍,城乡建设空间侵占草地生态空间和农业生产空间是珠江源区生境质量降低的主导因素。建设用地扩张的贡献度从2000—2010年的69.9%降为2010—2020年的46.7%,2010—2020年间来自耕地扩张的退化威胁超过路网建设成为次要威胁源。珠江源区仍需加大自然保护地的管控力度,严格落实土地用途管制,以保障生态系统的无净损失和完整性。     

Land cover change or land‐use intensification: simulating land system change with a global‐scale land change model

Land‐use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land‐use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land systems that are characterized by their land cover mosaic, the agricultural management intensity, and livestock. Land system changes are simulated by the model, driven by regional demand for goods and influenced by local factors that either constrain or promote land system conversion. A characteristic of the new model is the endogenous simulation of intensification of agricultural management versus expansion of arable land, and urban versus rural settlements expansion based on land availability in the neighborhood of the location. Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate. The land system approach allows the inclusion of different types of demand for goods and services from the land system as a driving factor of land system change. Simulation results are compared to observed changes over the 1970–2000 period and projections of other global and regional land change models.