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1.
Susan M. Magnoli 《Evolutionary Applications》2020,13(8):2030-2037
Mismatches between the traits of a colonizing population and a novel habitat can generate strong selection, potentially resulting in rapid adaptation. However, for most colonization events, it can be difficult to detect rapid adaptation or distinguish it from nonadaptive evolutionary changes. Here, I take advantage of a replicated prairie restoration experiment to compare recently established plant populations in two closely located restored prairies to each other and to their shared source population to test for rapid adaptation. Using a reciprocal transplant experiment six years after the populations were established, I found that one restored plant population showed evidence of adaptation, outperforming the other restored population when grown at its home site. In contrast, I detected no evidence for adaptation at the other site. These findings demonstrate that while rapid adaptation can occur in colonizing plant populations, it may not be the rule. Better understanding of when adaptation may or may not occur in these contexts may help us use evolution to our advantage, potentially improving establishment of desirable species in restored habitats. 相似文献
2.
Colin A. Chapman Kim Valenta Tyler R. Bonnell Kevin A. Brown Lauren J. Chapman 《Biotropica》2018,50(3):384-395
Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long‐term studies examining potential drivers of these patterns, particularly in Africa. We evaluated a 15‐year dataset of tree phenology in Kibale National Park, Uganda, to identify abiotic predictors of fruit phenological patterns and discuss our findings in light of climate change. We quantified fruiting for 326 trees from 43 species and evaluated these patterns in relation to solar radiance, rainfall, and monthly temperature. We used time‐lagged variables based on seasonality in linear regression models to assess the effect of abiotic variables on the proportion of fruiting trees. Annual fruiting varied over 3.8‐fold, and inter‐annual variation in fruiting is associated with the extent of fruiting in the peak period, not variation in time of fruit set. While temperature and rainfall showed positive effects on fruiting, solar radiance in the two‐year period encompassing a given year and the previous year was the strongest predictor of fruiting. As solar irradiance was the strongest predictor of fruiting, the projected increase in rainfall associated with climate change, and coincident increase in cloud cover suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in fruiting. ENSO in the prior 24‐month period was also significantly associated with annual ripe fruit production, and ENSO is also affected by climate change. Predicting changes in phenology demands understanding inter‐annual variation in fruit dynamics in light of potential abiotic drivers, patterns that will only emerge with long‐term data. 相似文献
3.
As the environment changes, so too must plant communities and populations if they are to persist. Life‐history transitions and their timing are often the traits that are most responsive to changing environmental conditions. To compare the contributions of plasticity and natural selective response to variation in germination and flowering phenology, we performed a quantitative genetic study of phenotypic selection on Chamaecrista fasciculata (Fabaceae) across two consecutive years in a restored tallgrass prairie. The earliest dates of germination and flowering were recorded for two parental cohorts and one progeny cohort in an experimental garden. Environmental differences between years were the largest contributors to phenological variation in this population. In addition, there was substantial heritability for flowering time and statistically significant selection for advancement of flowering. Comparison between a progeny cohort and its preselection parental cohort indicated a change in mean flowering time consistent with the direction of selection. Selection on germination time was weaker than that on flowering time, while environmental effects on germination time were stronger. The response to selection on flowering time was detectable when accounting for the effect of the environment on phenotypic differences, highlighting the importance of controlling for year‐to‐year environmental variation in quantitative genetic studies. 相似文献
4.
Tsechoe Dorji Ørjan Totland Stein R. Moe Kelly A. Hopping Jianbin Pan Julia A. Klein 《Global Change Biology》2013,19(2):459-472
Global climate change is predicted to have large impacts on the phenology and reproduction of alpine plants, which will have important implications for plant demography and community interactions, trophic dynamics, ecosystem energy balance, and human livelihoods. In this article we report results of a 3‐year, fully factorial experimental study exploring how warming, snow addition, and their combination affect reproductive phenology, effort, and success of four alpine plant species belonging to three different life forms in a semiarid, alpine meadow ecosystem on the central Tibetan Plateau. Our results indicate that warming and snow addition change reproductive phenology and success, but responses are not uniform across species. Moreover, traits associated with resource acquisition, such as rooting depth and life history (early vs. late flowering), mediate plant phenology, and reproductive responses to changing climatic conditions. Specifically, we found that warming delayed the reproductive phenology and decreased number of inflorescences of Kobresia pygmaea C. B. Clarke, a shallow‐rooted, early‐flowering plant, which may be mainly constrained by upper‐soil moisture availability. Because K. pygmaea is the dominant species in the alpine meadow ecosystem, these results may have important implications for ecosystem dynamics and for pastoralists and wildlife in the region. 相似文献
5.
Significant changes in plant phenology have been observed in response to increases in mean global temperatures. There are concerns that accelerated phenologies can negatively impact plant populations. However, the fitness consequence of changes in phenology in response to elevated temperature is not well understood, particularly under field conditions. We address this issue by exposing a set of recombinant inbred lines of Arabidopsis thaliana to a simulated global warming treatment in the field. We find that plants exposed to elevated temperatures flower earlier, as predicted by photothermal models. However, contrary to life‐history trade‐off expectations, they also flower at a larger vegetative size, suggesting that warming probably causes acceleration in vegetative development. Although warming increases mean fitness (fruit production) by ca. 25%, there is a significant genotype‐by‐environment interaction. Changes in fitness rank indicate that imminent climate change can cause populations to be maladapted in their new environment, if adaptive evolution is limited. Thus, changes in the genetic composition of populations are likely, depending on the species’ generation time and the speed of temperature change. Interestingly, genotypes that show stronger phenological responses have higher fitness under elevated temperatures, suggesting that phenological sensitivity might be a good indicator of success under elevated temperature at the genotypic level as well as at the species level. 相似文献
6.
7.
Damien A. Fordham Frédérik Saltré Stuart C. Brown Camille Mellin Tom M. L. Wigley 《Global Change Biology》2018,24(3):1371-1381
The current distribution of species, environmental conditions and their interactions represent only one snapshot of a planet that is continuously changing, in part due to human influences. To distinguish human impacts from natural factors, the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, since the Last Glacial Maximum, are often used to determine whether patterns of diversity today are artefacts of past climate change. In the absence of high‐temporal resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions, this is generally done by assuming that past climate change occurred at a linear pace between widely spaced (usually, ≥1,000 years) climate snapshots. We show here that this is a flawed assumption because regional climates have changed significantly across decades and centuries during glacial–interglacial cycles, likely causing rapid regional replacement of biota. We demonstrate how recent atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the climate of the past 21,000 years can provide credible estimates of the details of climate change on decadal to centennial timescales, showing that these details differ radically from what might be inferred from longer timescale information. High‐temporal resolution information can provide more meaningful estimates of the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, the location and timing of drivers of physiological stress, and the extent of novel climates. They also produce new opportunities to directly investigate whether short‐term climate variability is more important in shaping biodiversity patterns rather than gradual changes in long‐term climatic means. Together, these more accurate measures of past climate instability are likely to bring about a better understanding of the role of palaeoclimatic change and variability in shaping current macroecological patterns in many regions of the world. 相似文献
8.
《Journal of Plant Ecology》2025,18(2)
Phenology is one of the most reliable tools for understanding the effect of climate change on forests. Although there has been increasing research into the effect of climate on phenological activity, little is known about how phenological patterns for the same species may vary among environments, particularly for tropical species. Here we analyzed the reproductive phenology of an important tropical rainforest tree species in northeastern Australia, Cardwellia sublimis, and compared the patterns among five different sites. We also tested and compared the climate drivers of reproductive phenological activity among sites for this species. Degree of seasonality varied across sites with most sites presenting moderate to high seasonality. Flowering and fruiting peaked in different seasons at the different sites and we found flowering and fruiting phenology were often influenced by different climate drivers at the different sites. Where the climate drivers were the same, the magnitude and direction of the effect of the drivers differed among sites. Precipitation was the most common climate driver of flowering, being significant for all sites, while fruiting was predominantly influenced by temperature and solar radiation. Finally, we found evidence that relationships between climate drivers and phenological patterns were dependent on inter-site differences in climate and geography. Our results demonstrate that species may present varied phenological patterns and varied responses to climate drivers depending on environmental conditions and site location. These results have important implications for modelling phenological patterns based on limited field information, as well as for understanding species vulnerability to climate change. 相似文献
9.
Flowering times of plants are important life-history components and it has previously been hypothesized that flowering phenologies may be currently subject to natural selection or be selectively neutral. In this study we reviewed the evidence for phenotypic selection acting on flowering phenology using ordinary and phylogenetic meta-analysis. Phenotypic selection exists when a phenotypic trait co-varies with fitness; therefore, we looked for studies reporting an association between two components of flowering phenology (flowering time or flowering synchrony) with fitness. Data sets comprising 87 and 18 plant species were then used to assess the incidence and strength of phenotypic selection on flowering time and flowering synchrony, respectively. The influence of dependence on pollinators, the duration of the reproductive event, latitude and plant longevity as moderators of selection were also explored. Our results suggest that selection favours early flowering plants, but the strength of selection is influenced by latitude, with selection being stronger in temperate environments. However, there is no consistent pattern of selection on flowering synchrony. Our study demonstrates that phenotypic selection on flowering time is consistent and relatively strong, in contrast to previous hypotheses of selective neutrality, and has implications for the evolution of temperate floras under global climate change. 相似文献
10.
Amanda M. Kenney John K. McKay James H. Richards Thomas E. Juenger 《Ecology and evolution》2014,4(23):4505-4521
Flowering time and water-use efficiency (WUE) are two ecological traits that are important for plant drought response. To understand the evolutionary significance of natural genetic variation in flowering time, WUE, and WUE plasticity to drought in Arabidopsis thaliana, we addressed the following questions: (1) How are ecophysiological traits genetically correlated within and between different soil moisture environments? (2) Does terminal drought select for early flowering and drought escape? (3) Is WUE plasticity to drought adaptive and/or costly? We measured a suite of ecophysiological and reproductive traits on 234 spring flowering accessions of A. thaliana grown in well-watered and season-ending soil drying treatments, and quantified patterns of genetic variation, correlation, and selection within each treatment. WUE and flowering time were consistently positively genetically correlated. WUE was correlated with WUE plasticity, but the direction changed between treatments. Selection generally favored early flowering and low WUE, with drought favoring earlier flowering significantly more than well-watered conditions. Selection for lower WUE was marginally stronger under drought. There were no net fitness costs of WUE plasticity. WUE plasticity (per se) was globally neutral, but locally favored under drought. Strong genetic correlation between WUE and flowering time may facilitate the evolution of drought escape, or constrain independent evolution of these traits. Terminal drought favored drought escape in these spring flowering accessions of A. thaliana. WUE plasticity may be favored over completely fixed development in environments with periodic drought. 相似文献
11.
J. A. HODGSON C. D. THOMAS T. H. OLIVER B. J. ANDERSON T. M. BRERETON E. E. CRONE 《Global Change Biology》2011,17(3):1289-1300
Many species appear to be undergoing shifts in phenology, arising from climate change. To predict the direction and magnitude of future changes requires an understanding of how phenology depends on climatic variation. Species show large‐scale spatial variation in phenology (affected by differentiation among populations) as well as variation in phenology from year‐to‐year at the same site (affected predominantly by local plasticity). Teasing apart spatial and temporal variation in phenology should allow improved predictions of phenology under climate change. This study is the first to quantify large‐scale spatial and temporal variation in the entire emergence pattern of species, and to test the relationships found by predicting future data. We use data from up to 33 years of permanent transect records of butterflies in the United Kingdom to fit and test models for 15 butterfly species. We use generalized additive models to model spatial and temporal variation in the distribution of adult butterflies over the season, allowing us to capture changes in the timing of emergence peaks, relative sizes of peaks and/or number of peaks in a single analysis. We develop these models using data for 1973–2000, and then use them to predict phenologies from 2001 to 2006. For six of our study species, a model with only spatial variation in phenology is the best predictor of the future, implying that these species have limited plasticity. For the remaining nine species, the best predictions come from a model with both spatial and temporal variation in phenology; for four of these, growing degree‐days have similar effects over space and time, implying high levels of plasticity. The results show that statistical phenology models can be used to predict phenology shifts in a second time period, suggesting that it should be feasible to project phenologies under climate change scenarios, at least over modest time scales. 相似文献
12.
Stronger pollen limitation should increase competition among plants, leading to stronger selection on traits important for pollen receipt. The few explicit tests of this hypothesis, however, have provided conflicting support. Using the arithmetic relationship between these two quantities, we show that increased pollen limitation will automatically result in stronger selection (all else equal) although other factors can alter selection independently of pollen limitation. We then tested the hypothesis using two approaches. First, we analysed the published studies containing information on both pollen limitation and selection. Second, we explored how natural selection measured in one Ontario population of Lobelia cardinalis over 3 years and two Michigan populations in 1 year relates to pollen limitation. For the Ontario population, we also explored whether pollinator‐mediated selection is related to pollen limitation. Consistent with the hypothesis, we found an overall positive relationship between selection strength and pollen limitation both among species and within L. cardinalis. Unexpectedly, this relationship was found even for vegetative traits among species, and was not found in L. cardinalis for pollinator‐mediated selection on nearly all trait types. 相似文献
13.
Phillip Gienapp Thomas E. Reed Marcel E. Visser 《Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society》2014,281(1793)
The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations. 相似文献
14.
Understanding the capacity for different species to reduce their susceptibility to climate change via phenotypic plasticity is essential for accurately predicting species extinction risk. The climatic variability hypothesis suggests that spatial and temporal variation in climatic variables should select for more plastic phenotypes. However, empirical support for this hypothesis is limited. Here, we examine the capacity for ten Drosophila species to increase their critical thermal maxima (CTMAX) through developmental acclimation and/or adult heat hardening. Using four fluctuating developmental temperature regimes, ranging from 13 to 33 °C, we find that most species can increase their CTMAX via developmental acclimation and adult hardening, but found no relationship between climatic variables and absolute measures of plasticity. However, when plasticity was dissected across developmental temperatures, a positive association between plasticity and one measure of climatic variability (temperature seasonality) was found when development took place between 26 and 28 °C, whereas a negative relationship was found when development took place between 20 and 23 °C. In addition, a decline in CTMAX and egg‐to‐adult viability, a proxy for fitness, was observed in tropical species at the warmer developmental temperatures (26–28 °C); this suggests that tropical species may be at even greater risk from climate change than currently predicted. The combined effects of developmental acclimation and adult hardening on CTMAX were small, contributing to a <0.60 °C shift in CTMAX. Although small shifts in CTMAX may increase population persistence in the shorter term, the degree to which they can contribute to meaningful responses in the long term is unclear. 相似文献
15.
Tamara J. Zelikova Ruth A. Hufbauer Sasha C. Reed Timothy Wertin Christa Fettig Jayne Belnap 《Ecology and evolution》2013,3(5):1374-1387
How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green‐up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site‐specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau. 相似文献
16.
Jonathan Barichivich Keith R. Briffa Ranga B. Myneni Timothy J. Osborn Thomas M. Melvin Philippe Ciais Shilong Piao Compton Tucker 《Global Change Biology》2013,19(10):3167-3183
We combine satellite and ground observations during 1950–2011 to study the long‐term links between multiple climate (air temperature and cryospheric dynamics) and vegetation (greenness and atmospheric CO2 concentrations) indicators of the growing season of northern ecosystems (>45°N) and their connection with the carbon cycle. During the last three decades, the thermal potential growing season has lengthened by about 10.5 days (P < 0.01, 1982–2011), which is unprecedented in the context of the past 60 years. The overall lengthening has been stronger and more significant in Eurasia (12.6 days, P < 0.01) than North America (6.2 days, P > 0.05). The photosynthetic growing season has closely tracked the pace of warming and extension of the potential growing season in spring, but not in autumn when factors such as light and moisture limitation may constrain photosynthesis. The autumnal extension of the photosynthetic growing season since 1982 appears to be about half that of the thermal potential growing season, yielding a smaller lengthening of the photosynthetic growing season (6.7 days at the circumpolar scale, P < 0.01). Nevertheless, when integrated over the growing season, photosynthetic activity has closely followed the interannual variations and warming trend in cumulative growing season temperatures. This lengthening and intensification of the photosynthetic growing season, manifested principally over Eurasia rather than North America, is associated with a long‐term increase (22.2% since 1972, P < 0.01) in the amplitude of the CO2 annual cycle at northern latitudes. The springtime extension of the photosynthetic and potential growing seasons has apparently stimulated earlier and stronger net CO2 uptake by northern ecosystems, while the autumnal extension is associated with an earlier net release of CO2 to the atmosphere. These contrasting responses may be critical in determining the impact of continued warming on northern terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle. 相似文献
17.
Benjamin Brachi Romain Villoutreix Nathalie Faure Nina Hautekèete Yves Piquot Maxime Pauwels Dominique Roby Joël Cuguen Joy Bergelson Fabrice Roux 《Molecular ecology》2013,22(16):4222-4240
Despite the increasing number of genomic tools, identifying the genetics underlying adaptive complex traits remains challenging in the model species Arabidopsis thaliana. This is due, at least in part, to the lack of data on the geographical scale of adaptive phenotypic variation. The aims of this study were (i) to tease apart the historical roles of adaptive and nonselective processes in shaping phenological variation in A. thaliana in France and (ii) to gain insights into the spatial scale of adaptive variation by identifying the putative selective agents responsible for this selection. Forty‐nine natural stands from four climatically contrasted French regions were characterized (i) phenologically for six traits, (ii) genetically using 135 SNP markers and (iii) ecologically for 42 variables. Up to 63% of phenological variation could be explained by neutral genetic diversity. The remaining phenological variation displayed stronger associations with ecological variation within regions than among regions, suggesting the importance of local selective agents in shaping adaptive phenological variation. Although climatic conditions have often been suggested as the main selective agents acting on phenology in A. thaliana, both edaphic conditions and interspecific competition appear to be strong selective agents in some regions. In a first attempt to identify the genetics of phenological variation at different geographical scales, we phenotyped worldwide accessions and local polymorphic populations from the French RegMap in a genome‐wide association (GWA) mapping study. The genomic regions associated with phenological variation depended upon the geographical scale considered, stressing the need to account for the scale of adaptive phenotypic variation when choosing accession panels for GWAS. 相似文献
18.
M. E. Shackleton;A. R. Siebers;P. J. Suter;O. Lines;A. Holland;J. W. Morgan;E. Silvester; 《Global Change Biology》2024,30(6):e17364
Thermal regimes of aquatic ecosystems are predicted to change as climate warming progresses over the next century, with high-latitude and high-elevation regions predicted to be particularly impacted. Here, we have modelled alpine stream water temperatures from air temperature data and used future predicted air temperature trajectories (representative concentration pathway [rcp] 4.5 and 8.5) to predict future water temperatures. Modelled stream water temperatures have been used to calculate cumulative degree days (CDDs) under current and future climate conditions. These calculations show that degree days will accumulate more rapidly under the future climate scenarios, and with a stronger effect for higher CDD values (e.g., rcp 4.5: 18–28 days earlier [CDD = 500]; 42–55 days earlier [CDD = 2000]). Changes to the time to achieve specific CDDs may have profound and unexpected consequences for alpine ecosystems. Our calculations show that while the effect of increased CDDs may be relatively small for organisms that emerge in spring–summer, the effects for organisms emerging in late summer–autumn may be substantial. For these organisms, the air temperatures experienced upon emergence could reach 9°C (rcp 4.5) or 12°C (rcp 8.5) higher than under current climate conditions, likely impacting on the metabolism of adults, the availability of resources, including food and suitable oviposition habitat, and reproductive success. Given that the movement of aquatic fauna to the terrestrial environment represents an important flux of energy and nutrients, differential changes in the time periods to achieve CDDs for aquatic and terrestrial fauna may de-couple existing predator–prey interactions. 相似文献
19.
Charlotte W. de Keyzer Nicole E. Rafferty David W. Inouye James D. Thomson 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(5):1783-1791
Shifts in the timing of life history events have become an important source of information about how organisms are responding to climate change. Phenological data have generally been treated as purely temporal, with scant attention to the inherent spatial aspects of such data. However, phenological data are tied to a specific location, and considerations of sampling design, both over space and through time, can critically affect the patterns that emerge. Focusing on flowering phenology, we describe how purely spatial shifts, such as adding new study plots, or the colonization of a study plot by a new species, can masquerade as temporal shifts. Such shifts can look like responses to climate change but are not. Furthermore, the same aggregate phenological curves can be composed of individuals with either very different or very similar phenologies. We conclude with a set of recommendations to avoid ambiguities arising from the spatiotemporal duality of phenological data. 相似文献
20.
Flowering and germination time are components of phenology, a complex phenotype that incorporates a number of traits. In natural populations, selection is likely to occur on multiple components of phenology at once. However, we have little knowledge of how joint selection on several phenological traits influences evolutionary response. We conducted one generation of artificial selection for all combinations of early and late germination and flowering on replicated lines within two independent base populations in the herb Campanula americana. We then measured response to selection and realized heritability for each trait. Response to selection and heritability were greater for flowering time than germination time, indicating greater evolutionary potential of this trait. Selection for earlier phenology, both flowering and germination, did not depend on the direction of selection on the other trait, whereas response to selection to delay germination and flowering was greater when selection on the other trait was in the opposite direction (e.g., early germination and late flowering), indicating a negative genetic correlation between the traits. Therefore, the extent to which correlations shaped response to selection depended on the direction of selection. Furthermore, the genetic correlation between timing of germination and flowering varies across the trait distributions. The negative correlation between germination and flowering time found when selecting for delayed phenology follows theoretical predictions of constraint for traits that jointly determine life history schedule. In contrast, the lack of constraint found when selecting for an accelerated phenology suggests a reduction of the covariance due to strong selection favoring earlier flowering and a shorter life cycle. This genetic architecture, in turn, will facilitate further evolution of the early phenology often favored in warm climates. 相似文献