Projecting future fire activity in Amazonia

Fires are major disturbances for ecosystems in Amazonia. They affect vegetation succession, alter nutrients and carbon cycling, and modify the composition of the atmosphere. Fires in this region are strongly related to land‐use, land‐cover and climate conditions. Because these factors are all expected to change in the future, it is reasonable to expect that fire activity will also change. Models are needed to quantitatively estimate the magnitude of these potential changes. Here we present a new fire model developed by relating satellite information on fires to corresponding statistics on climate, land‐use and land‐cover. The model is first shown to reproduce the main contemporary large‐scale features of fire patterns in Amazonia. To estimate potential changes in fire activity in the future, we then applied the model to two alternative scenarios of development of the region. We find that in both scenarios, substantial changes in the frequency and spatial patterns of fires are expected unless steps are taken to mitigate fire activity.     

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous USA with land use and variable fire regimes

The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous USA at 30 arc sec (~800 m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming no human impacts and naturally occurring wildfires. A moderate effect of increased atmospheric CO₂ on water use efficiency and growth enhanced carbon sequestration but did not greatly influence woody encroachment. The wildfires maintained prairie‐forest ecotones in the Great Plains. With simulated fire suppression, the number and impacts of wildfires was reduced as only catastrophic fires were allowed to escape. This greatly increased the expansion of forests and woodlands across the western USA and some of the ecotones disappeared. However, when fires did occur, their impacts (both extent and biomass consumed) were very large. We also evaluated the relative influence of human land use including forest and crop harvest by running the DGVM with land use (and fire suppression) and simple land management rules. From 2041 through 2060, carbon stocks (live biomass, soil and dead biomass) of US terrestrial ecosystems varied between 155 and 162 Pg C across the three emission scenarios when potential natural vegetation was simulated. With land use, periodic harvest of croplands and timberlands as well as the prevention of woody expansion across the West reduced carbon stocks to a range of 122–126 Pg C, while effective fire suppression reduced fire emissions by about 50%. Despite the simplicity of our approach, the differences between the size of the carbon stocks confirm other reports of the importance of land use on the carbon cycle over climate change.     

Fire‐induced taxonomic and functional changes in saproxylic beetle communities in fire sensitive regions

It is often suggested that fire acts as an environmental filter that selects species and functional traits, and reduces trait variability within communities, affecting ecosystem function and underlying services. This may be particularly important in fire‐sensitive ecosystems, such as the central European Alps, where fires are scarce. According to climate and land use change scenarios in Europe, fire risk will increase during the next decades, raising important questions about the maintenance of ecological and functional resilience in these regions. We used two families of saproxylic beetles (i.e. Cerambycidae and Buprestidae) as model group to test the combined effect of fire and altitude on species and trait composition in the central Alps of Switzerland. Trait response was based on weighted means and variation of 15 traits over the communities. Our results showed an overall positive effect of fire on taxonomic and functional diversity, while indicator species and community analyses revealed that the response to fire was also modulated by altitude. The positive effect of fire and the presence of large populations of pyrophilous species suggest co‐evolution with fire and adaptation to disturbance in the Alps. Biodiversity in the central Alps might thus be more resilient to fire than expected. In the light of climatic and land use changes, forest management and species conservation in the central Alps have to consider fire one of the major disruptive factors that have shaped and will shape species composition and ecosystem services.     

Nitrogen deposition in tropical forests from savanna and deforestation fires

We used satellite‐derived estimates of global fire emissions and a chemical transport model to estimate atmospheric nitrogen (N) fluxes from savanna and deforestation fires in tropical ecosystems. N emissions and reactive N deposition led to a net transport of N equatorward, from savannas and areas undergoing deforestation to tropical forests. Deposition of fire‐emitted N in savannas was only 26% of emissions – indicating a net export from this biome. On average, net N loss from fires (the sum of emissions and deposition) was equivalent to approximately 22% of biological N fixation (BNF) in savannas (4.0 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1) and 38% of BNF in ecosystems at the deforestation frontier (9.3 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1). Net N gains from fires occurred in interior tropical forests at a rate equivalent to 3% of their BNF (0.8 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1). This percentage was highest for African tropical forests in the Congo Basin (15%; 3.4 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1) owing to equatorward transport from frequently burning savannas north and south of the basin. These results provide evidence for cross‐biome atmospheric fluxes of N that may help to sustain productivity in some tropical forest ecosystems on millennial timescales. Anthropogenic fires associated with slash and burn agriculture and deforestation in the southern part of the Amazon Basin and across Southeast Asia have substantially increased N deposition in these regions in recent decades and may contribute to increased rates of carbon accumulation in secondary forests and other N‐limited ecosystems.     

Climate change, human land use and future fires in the Amazon

There is increasing consensus that the global climate will continue to warm over the next century. The biodiversity-rich Amazon forest is a region of growing concern because many global climate model (GCM) scenarios of climate change forecast reduced precipitation and, in some cases, coupled vegetation models predict dieback of the forest. To date, fires have generally been spatially co-located with road networks and associated human land use because almost all fires in this region are anthropogenic in origin. Climate change, if severe enough, could alter this situation, potentially changing the fire regime to one of increased fire frequency and severity for vast portions of the Amazon forest. High moisture contents and dense canopies have historically made Amazonian forests extremely resistant to fire spread. Climate will affect the fire situation in the Amazon directly, through changes in temperature and precipitation, and indirectly, through climate-forced changes in vegetation composition and structure. The frequency of drought will be a prime determinant of both how often forest fires occur and how extensive they become. Fire risk management needs to take into account landscape configuration, land cover types and forest disturbance history as well as climate and weather. Maintaining large blocks of unsettled forest is critical for managing landscape level fire in the Amazon. The Amazon has resisted previous climate changes and should adapt to future climates as well if landscapes can be managed to maintain natural fire regimes in the majority of forest remnants.     

Agricultural intensification increases deforestation fire activity in Amazonia

Fire-driven deforestation is the major source of carbon emissions from Amazonia. Recent expansion of mechanized agriculture in forested regions of Amazonia has increased the average size of deforested areas, but related changes in fire dynamics remain poorly characterized. We estimated the contribution of fires from the deforestation process to total fire activity based on the local frequency of active fire detections from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors. High-confidence fire detections at the same ground location on 2 or more days per year are most common in areas of active deforestation, where trunks, branches, and stumps can be piled and burned many times before woody fuels are depleted. Across Amazonia, high-frequency fires typical of deforestation accounted for more than 40% of the MODIS fire detections during 2003–2007. Active deforestation frontiers in Bolivia and the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso, Pará, and Rondônia contributed 84% of these high-frequency fires during this period. Among deforested areas, the frequency and timing of fire activity vary according to postclearing land use. Fire usage for expansion of mechanized crop production in Mato Grosso is more intense and more evenly distributed throughout the dry season than forest clearing for cattle ranching (4.6 vs. 1.7 fire days per deforested area, respectively), even for clearings >200 ha in size. Fires for deforestation may continue for several years, increasing the combustion completeness of cropland deforestation to nearly 100% and pasture deforestation to 50–90% over 1–3-year timescales typical of forest conversion. Our results demonstrate that there is no uniform relation between satellite-based fire detections and carbon emissions. Improved understanding of deforestation carbon losses in Amazonia will require models that capture interannual variation in the deforested area that contributes to fire activity and variable combustion completeness of individual clearings as a function of fire frequency or other evidence of postclearing land use.     

Carbon benefits from Forest Transitions promoting biomass expansions and thickening

The growth of the global terrestrial sink of carbon dioxide has puzzled scientists for decades. We propose that the role of land management practices—from intensive forestry to allowing passive afforestation of abandoned lands—have played a major role in the growth of the terrestrial carbon sink in the decades since the mid twentieth century. The Forest Transition, a historic transition from shrinking to expanding forests, and from sparser to denser forests, has seen an increase of biomass and carbon across large regions of the globe. We propose that the contribution of Forest Transitions to the terrestrial carbon sink has been underestimated. Because forest growth is slow and incremental, changes in the carbon density in forest biomass and soils often elude detection. Measurement technologies that rely on changes in two‐dimensional ground cover can miss changes in forest density. In contrast, changes from abrupt and total losses of biomass in land clearing, forest fires and clear cuts are easy to measure. Land management improves over time providing important present contributions and future potential to climate change mitigation. Appreciating the contributions of Forest Transitions to the sequestering of atmospheric carbon will enable its potential to aid in climate change mitigation.     

Contribution of Monsoon Asia to the carbon budget of the biosphere,past and future

The High Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM), which has been developed by the group of the author, was used to investigate the carbon balance of the vegetation and the soil in the ecosystems of Monsoon Asia in comparison to the rest of the world. The HRBM is a global grid-based (0.5 degree resolution) model with a monthly time step. It includes modules for natural vegetation, land use, vegetation fires, vegetation composition. A historical carbon budget was calculated for the period 1860–1978 and, on a global scale, validated using atmospheric CO₂ data. Based on the per-country development of the population and their requirements, different reasonable scenarios were used to investigate the potential impacts of land use and deforestation in the period 1990–2050. The HRBM calculates considerable contributions of Monsoon Asia to the global CO₂ emissions due to land use changes in the past. Between 1860 and 1978, about 1/4 of the global releases from land use changes came from South Asian and Southeast Asian biota. The future contributions in the period 1990–2050 depend on the assumed development of the agricultural methods. If the intensity of agriculture and the agricultural productivity will stay the same as in the 1980s, there will be a strong need to increase agricultural areas, and thus deforestation will dominate. If there will be a change over to intensive methods of agricultural production, the presently used areas might be sufficient to provide resources to the growing population.     

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process‐based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO₂ fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO₂ fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post‐fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.     

森林火灾污染物质释放及其影响研究进展

森林火灾是大气中气体污染物和颗粒物的重要来源,可对全球气候系统、大气环境以及生态系统产生重要影响,对全球温室气体和含碳颗粒物释放具有重要的贡献,是推动全球气候变化的重要因素。森林火灾释放污染物已成为区域乃至全球范围内重要污染源之一,这些污染物质与辐射、能见度以及温室效应等问题直接相关。准确地描述森林火灾释放的气体和颗粒污染物释放机理、释放总量、时空分布特征、不同尺度的扩散过程模拟,以及对区域大气环境的影响,对于量化森林火灾释放污染物总量及区域影响具有重要意义。基于森林火灾污染物质释放方面的国内外文献,从火灾释放的污染物质对环境的影响、森林火灾释放污染物定量化和传输路径监测的研究方法、污染物质的扩散和运输模型以及跨区域影响等几个方面进行了综述。森林火灾释放的CO、PM₁₀和PM_2.5对环境和人的生命安全造成巨大威胁,而且森林火灾释放的污染物质能够随气流长距离传输,不仅对当地的空气造成污染,污染物也能够随着气团进行长距离传输,并在传输过程与当地气溶胶混合,形成跨区域污染。森林火灾释放污染物扩散、传输模拟通过不同模型相互耦合完成,包括可燃物载量估算模型、可燃物消耗和释放模型、污染物扩散传输模型,以及污染物预测和可视化模型等。总结了国内外森林火灾释放污染物质主要研究方法,并展望了今后研究重点:目前我国关于森林火灾释放物质相关的研究尚不足以支撑我国森林火灾温室气体释放、污染物释放等方面的研究,并且我国目前还没有发展出适合于我国的森林火灾污染物释放模型,以及污染物扩散、传输系统。森林火灾排放因子库大多数引用国外研究结果,在一定程度上增加不确定性,缺乏森林火灾对区域大气环境影响的定量化研究。因此,今后我国应加强对森林火灾污染物质释放与影响的研究,尤其是污染物质扩散和传输模型的预测和可视化研究以及排放因子的测量。     

Trends and scenarios of the carbon budget in postagricultural Puerto Rico (1936–2060)

Contrary to the general trend in the tropics, Puerto Rico underwent a process of agriculture abandonment during the second half of the 20th century as a consequence of socioeconomic changes toward urbanization and industrialization. Using data on land‐use change, biomass accumulation in secondary forests, and ratios between gross domestic product (GDP) and carbon emissions, we developed a model of the carbon budget for Puerto Rico between 1936 and 2060. As a consequence of land abandonment, forests have expanded rapidly since 1950, achieving the highest sequestration rates between 1980 and 1990. Regardless of future scenarios of demography and land use, sequestration rates will decrease in the future because biomass accumulation decreases with forest age and there is little agricultural land remaining to be abandoned. Due to high per‐capita consumption and population density, carbon emissions of Puerto Rico have increased dramatically and exceeded carbon sequestration during the second half of the 20th century. Although Puerto Rico had the highest percent of reforestation for a tropical country, emissions during the period 1950–2000 were approximately 3.5 times higher than sequestration, and current annual emission is almost nine times the rate of sequestration. Additionally, while sequestration will decrease over the next six decades, current socioeconomic trends suggest increasing emissions unless there are significant changes in energy technology or consumption patterns. In conclusion, socioeconomic changes leading to urbanization and industrialization in tropical countries may promote high rates of carbon sequestration during the decades following land abandonment. Initial high rates of carbon sequestration can balance emissions of developing countries with low emission/GDP ratio. In Puerto Rico, the socioeconomic changes that promoted reforestation also promoted high‐energy consumption, and resulted in a net increase in carbon emissions.     

Landscape responses to a century of land use along the northern Patagonian forest-steppe transition

Land use history reconstructions in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere indicate that periods of deforestation are often followed by natural afforestation, so that the long-term outcome at the landscape level will be a balance of retractions and advances of plant communities associated with varying local land uses. During the last decades of the XIX century, large forest areas were cleared in Northwestern Patagonia to open farmland. In this article, we compared historical land use/land cover maps with land cover maps derived from Landsat images to analyze the factors that may have influenced the dynamics of land cover change of the forest-steppe ecotone during the last 100 years. Our results indicate that Patagonian forests underwent a rapid initial recovery after the extensive fires of last century, replacing mainly shrublands. More than 50% of the old burns are currently covered by forests, and modern fires affect areas characterized by fire-prone vegetation. Whereas natural afforestation is an ongoing process positively associated with moisture, the rate of forest losses has increased during the last three decades, concentrating on xeric aspects and the vicinity of roads. We conclude that the outcome of the dynamics between fire-intolerant forests and fire-prone plant communities will largely depend on human-related activities, modeled by structural features of the landscape (i.e., topography, dominant winds), and processes triggered by past land uses.     

Projected Changes in Terrestrial Carbon Storage in Europe under Climate and Land-use Change, 1990–2100

Changes in climate and land use, caused by socio-economic changes, greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural policies and other factors, are known to affect both natural and managed ecosystems, and will likely impact on the European terrestrial carbon balance during the coming decades. This study presents a comprehensive European Union wide (EU15 plus Norway and Switzerland, EU*) assessment of potential future changes in terrestrial carbon storage considering these effects based on four illustrative IPCC-SRES storylines (A1FI, A2, B1, B2). A process-based land vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM), adapted to include a generic representation of managed ecosystems, is forced with changing fields of land-use patterns from 1901 to 2100 to assess the effect of land-use and cover changes on the terrestrial carbon balance of Europe. The uncertainty in the future carbon balance associated with the choice of a climate change scenario is assessed by forcing LPJ-DGVM with output from four different climate models (GCMs: CGCM2, CSIRO2, HadCM3, PCM2) for the same SRES storyline. Decrease in agricultural areas and afforestation leads to simulated carbon sequestration for all land-use change scenarios with an average net uptake of 17–38 Tg C/year between 1990 and 2100, corresponding to 1.9–2.9% of the EU*s CO₂ emissions over the same period. Soil carbon losses resulting from climate warming reduce or even offset carbon sequestration resulting from growth enhancement induced by climate change and increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the second half of the twenty-first century. Differences in future climate change projections among GCMs are the main cause for uncertainty in the cumulative European terrestrial carbon uptake of 4.4–10.1 Pg C between 1990 and 2100.     

Climate change decreases the cooling effect from postfire albedo in boreal North America

Fire is a primary disturbance in boreal forests and generates both positive and negative climate forcings. The influence of fire on surface albedo is a predominantly negative forcing in boreal forests, and one of the strongest overall, due to increased snow exposure in the winter and spring months. Albedo forcings are spatially and temporally heterogeneous and depend on a variety of factors related to soils, topography, climate, land cover/vegetation type, successional dynamics, time since fire, season, and fire severity. However, how these variables interact to influence albedo is not well understood, and quantifying these relationships and predicting postfire albedo becomes increasingly important as the climate changes and management frameworks evolve to consider climate impacts. Here we developed a MODIS‐derived ‘blue sky’ albedo product and a novel machine learning modeling framework to predict fire‐driven changes in albedo under historical and future climate scenarios across boreal North America. Converted to radiative forcing (RF), we estimated that fires generate an annual mean cooling of ?1.77 ± 1.35 W/m² from albedo under historical climate conditions (1971–2000) integrated over 70 years postfire. Increasing postfire albedo along a south–north climatic gradient was offset by a nearly opposite gradient in solar insolation, such that large‐scale spatial patterns in RF were minimal. Our models suggest that climate change will lead to decreases in mean annual postfire albedo, and hence a decreasing strength of the negative RF, a trend dominated by decreased snow cover in spring months. Considering the range of future climate scenarios and model uncertainties, we estimate that for fires burning in the current era (2016) the cooling effect from long‐term postfire albedo will be reduced by 15%–28% due to climate change.     

The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire-making species, but 'natural' (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human-set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from 'natural' background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke-related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas-induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre-human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research.     

Using Unplanned Fires to Help Suppressing Future Large Fires in Mediterranean Forests

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20^th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire–succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000–2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18–22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change.     

Contrasting fire responses to climate and management: insights from two Australian ecosystems

This study explores effects of climate change and fuel management on unplanned fire activity in ecosystems representing contrasting extremes of the moisture availability spectrum (mesic and arid). Simulation modelling examined unplanned fire activity (fire incidence and area burned, and the area burned by large fires) for alternate climate scenarios and prescribed burning levels in: (i) a cool, moist temperate forest and wet moorland ecosystem in south‐west Tasmania (mesic); and (ii) a spinifex and mulga ecosystem in central Australia (arid). Contemporary fire activity in these case study systems is limited, respectively, by fuel availability and fuel amount. For future climates, unplanned fire incidence and area burned increased in the mesic landscape, but decreased in the arid landscape in accordance with predictions based on these limiting factors. Area burned by large fires (greater than the 95th percentile of historical, unplanned fire size) increased with future climates in the mesic landscape. Simulated prescribed burning was more effective in reducing unplanned fire activity in the mesic landscape. However, the inhibitory effects of prescribed burning are predicted to be outweighed by climate change in the mesic landscape, whereas in the arid landscape prescribed burning reinforced a predicted decline in fire under climate change. The potentially contrasting direction of future changes to fire will have fundamentally different consequences for biodiversity in these contrasting ecosystems, and these will need to be accommodated through contrasting, innovative management solutions.     

Cumulative effects of land use,altered fire regime and climate change on persistence of Ceanothus verrucosus,a rare,fire‐dependent plant species

Mediterranean ecosystems are among the highest in species richness and endemism globally and are also among the most sensitive to climate and land‐use change. Fire is an important driver of ecosystem processes in these systems; however, fire regimes have been substantially changed by human activities. Climate change is predicted to further alter fire regimes and species distributions, leading to habitat loss and threatening biodiversity. It is currently unknown what the population‐level effects of these landscape‐level changes will be. We linked a spatially explicit stochastic population model to dynamic bioclimate envelopes to investigate the effects of climate change, habitat loss and fragm entation and altered fire regime on population abundances of a long‐lived obligate seeding shrub, Ceanothus verrucosus, a rare endemic species of southern California. We tested a range of fire return intervals under the present and two future climate scenarios. We also assessed the impact of potential anthropogenic land‐use change by excluding land identified as developable by local governments. We found that the 35–50 year fire return interval resulted in the highest population abundances. Expected minimum population abundance (EMA) declined gradually as fire return interval increased, but declined dramatically for shorter fire intervals. Simulated future development resulted in a 33% decline in EMA, but relatively stable population trajectories over the time frame modeled. Relative changes in EMA for alternative fire intervals were similar for all climate and habitat loss scenarios, except under the more severe climate scenario which resulted in a change in the relative ranking of the fire scenarios. Our results show climate change to be the most serious threat facing obligate seeding shrubs embedded in urban landscapes, resulting in population decline and increased local extirpation, and that likely interactions with other threats increase risks to these species. Taking account of parameter uncertainty did not alter our conclusions.     

Does the Establishment of Sustainable Use Reserves Affect Fire Management in the Humid Tropics?

Tropical forests are experiencing a growing fire problem driven by climatic change, agricultural expansion and forest degradation. Protected areas are an important feature of forest protection strategies, and sustainable use reserves (SURs) may be reducing fire prevalence since they promote sustainable livelihoods and resource management. However, the use of fire in swidden agriculture, and other forms of land management, may be undermining the effectiveness of SURs in meeting their conservation and sustainable development goals. We analyse MODIS derived hot pixels, TRMM rainfall data, Terra-Class land cover data, socio-ecological data from the Brazilian agro-census and the spatial extent of rivers and roads to evaluate whether the designation of SURs reduces fire occurrence in the Brazilian Amazon. Specifically, we ask (1) a. Is SUR location (i.e., de facto) or (1) b. designation (i.e. de jure) the driving factor affecting performance in terms of the spatial density of fires?, and (2), Does SUR creation affect fire management (i.e., the timing of fires in relation to previous rainfall)? We demonstrate that pre-protection baselines are crucial for understanding reserve performance. We show that reserve creation had no discernible impact on fire density, and that fires were less prevalent in SURs due to their characteristics of sparser human settlement and remoteness, rather than their status de jure. In addition, the timing of fires in relation to rainfall, indicative of local fire management and adherence to environmental law, did not improve following SUR creation. These results challenge the notion that SURs promote environmentally sensitive fire-management, and suggest that SURs in Amazonia will require special attention if they are to curtail future accidental wildfires, particularly as plans to expand the road infrastructure throughout the region are realised. Greater investment to support improved fire management by farmers living in reserves, in addition to other fire users, will be necessary to help ameliorate these threats.     

Climate regime shift and forest loss amplify fire in Amazonian forests

Frequent Amazonian fires over the last decade have raised the alarm about the fate of the Earth's most biodiverse forest. The increased fire frequency has been attributed to altered hydrological cycles. However, observations over the past few decades have demonstrated hydrological changes that may have opposing impacts on fire, including higher basin‐wide precipitation and increased drought frequency and severity. Here, we use multiple satellite observations and climate reanalysis datasets to demonstrate compelling evidence of increased fire susceptibility in response to climate regime shifts across Amazonia. We show that accumulated forest loss since 2000 warmed and dried the lower atmosphere, which reduced moisture recycling and resulted in increased drought extent and severity, and subsequent fire. Extremely dry and wet events accompanied with hot days have been more frequent in Amazonia due to climate shift and forest loss. Simultaneously, intensified water vapor transport from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic increased high‐altitude atmospheric humidity and heavy rainfall events, but those events did not alleviate severe and long‐lasting droughts. Amazonia fire risk is most significant in the southeastern region where tropical savannas undergo long seasonally dry periods. We also find that fires have been expanding through the wet–dry transition season and northward to savanna–forest transition and tropical seasonal forest regions in response to increased forest loss at the “Arc of Deforestation.” Tropical forests, which have adapted to historically moist conditions, are less resilient and easily tip into an alternative state. Our results imply forest conservation and fire protection options to reduce the stress from positive feedback between forest loss, climate change, and fire.