Spatial patterns of flower colour variation in native and introduced ranges of Convolvulus arvensis (Convolvulaceae) revealed by citizen-science data and machine learning

• Flower colour polymorphism refers to the presence of multiple colour variants in plant populations. Investigation of this phenomenon led to multiple discoveries, including the principles of heredity and the foundations of population genetics. I examined flower colour variation across native and introduced ranges of Convolvulus arvensis, which exhibits flower colour polymorphism (individuals have white or pink petals).
• To study flower colour variation of this species throughout large geographic scale, I used observations gathered from the iNaturalist platform. To handle a large amount of data, I trained a neural network to classify the plants' morphs based on photographs. After which I performed spatial analyses to examine the patterns of the colour frequency, also in relation to environmental factors.
• The results show that flower colours are polymorphic across the whole species range, but the frequency of pink versus white flowers varies. In the Palearctic, I observed geographic clines of colour morph frequencies: a higher frequency of the pink morph in populations from Northwest Europe, whereas in South and East Europe, towards the eastern edge of the range, the white morph was dominant. In contrast, pattern of colour distribution in North America (where the species is invasive) seems random, but the model indicates a link between higher proportions of pink morphs in mild and humid climates.
• The mechanisms behind the observed patterns remain largely unknown, as changes in a morphs' frequency are not strongly linked to abiotic factors. To understand the spatial pattern, a detailed investigation, accounting for the species' phylogeography is needed. This study provides another example of how the general public may collect data relevant to ecological studies, even when the data are not collected for a specific project.

     

Ecological differentiation among key plant mutualists from a cryptic ant guild

As key dispersers of herbaceous seeds, Aphaenogaster ants strongly influence the distribution of woodland plants in eastern North America. Ants within this genus are difficult to distinguish and often are identified by subgroup, but emerging research suggests they occupy species-specific ecological niches. As such, distinct climatic requirements among Aphaenogaster spp. might result in transient plant interactions with climate change. We examine whether there are ecological and distributional differences among Aphaenogaster species that coincide with current taxonomic differentiations. We use occurrence records for six Aphaenogaster spp. that occur in deciduous forests in eastern North America. We associate the geographic patterning of species occurrence with temperature and precipitation data, and we examine whether unique climatic niches characterize each species. We then predict habitat suitability throughout eastern North America using species distribution models. For verification, we test how well the predicted ranges fit observed occurrences using novel data sets for each species. We find that Aphaenogaster species within this cryptic genus demonstrate unique ecological and geographic signatures. Each species within the subgroup generally responds differently to temperature, and somewhat differently to precipitation and seasonal variance, suggesting unique ecological niches for each species. Our results indicate that each ant species may respond uniquely to changes in climate. Such shifts could disrupt current community associations and biotic interactions with ant-dispersed plants.     

Salamander morph frequencies do not evolve as predicted in response to 40 years of climate change

The global climate is changing rapidly, yet biotic responses remain uncertain. Most studies focus on changes in species ranges or plastic responses like phenology, but adaptive evolution could be equally important. Studying evolutionary responses is challenging given limited historical data and a poor understanding of genetically variable traits under selection. We take advantage of a historical dataset to test for an adaptive response to climate change in a widespread, polymorphic amphibian, the eastern red‐backed salamander Plethodon cinereus. We resurveyed color morph frequencies across New England to test for an adaptive shift in response to climate change. We modeled historical and present‐day morph proportions as a function of climate and tested the accuracy of predictions both within and across different time periods. Our models showed moderate accuracy when predicting morph frequencies within time periods, but poor accuracy across time periods. Despite substantial changes in climate and significant relationships between morph frequency and climate variables within periods, we found no evidence for the predicted shift in morph frequencies across New England. The relationship between climate and color morph frequencies is likely more complex than originally suggested, potentially involving the interplay of additional factors such as microclimate variation, land use changes, and frequency‐dependent selection. Model extrapolation and changes in the correlation structure of climate variables also likely contributed to poor predictive ability. Evolution could provide a means to moderate the effects of climate change on many species. However, we often do not understand the direct links between climate variation, traits, and fitness. Therefore, forecasting climate‐mediated evolution remains an ongoing and important challenge for understanding climate change threats to species.     

Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North America's winter bird communities

Much of the recent changes in North American climate have occurred during the winter months, and as result, overwintering birds represent important sentinels of anthropogenic climate change. While there is mounting evidence that bird populations are responding to a warming climate (e.g., poleward shifts) questions remain as to whether these species‐specific responses are resulting in community‐wide changes. Here, we test the hypothesis that a changing winter climate should favor the formation of winter bird communities dominated by warm‐adapted species. To do this, we quantified changes in community composition using a functional index – the Community Temperature Index (CTI) – which measures the balance between low‐ and high‐temperature dwelling species in a community. Using data from Project FeederWatch, an international citizen science program, we quantified spatiotemporal changes in winter bird communities (n = 38 bird species) across eastern North America and tested the influence of changes in winter minimum temperature over a 22‐year period. We implemented a jackknife analysis to identify those species most influential in driving changes at the community level and the population dynamics (e.g., extinction or colonization) responsible for these community changes. Since 1990, we found that the winter bird community structure has changed with communities increasingly composed of warm‐adapted species. This reshuffling of winter bird communities was strongest in southerly latitudes and driven primarily by local increases in abundance and regional patterns of colonization by southerly birds. CTI tracked patterns of changing winter temperature at different temporal scales ranging from 1 to 35 years. We conclude that a shifting winter climate has provided an opportunity for smaller, southerly distributed species to colonize new regions and promote the formation of unique winter bird assemblages throughout eastern North America.     

Phylogenomics,biogeography, and evolution of morphology and ecological niche of the eastern Asian–eastern North American Nyssa (Nyssaceae)

Nyssa (Nyssaceae, Cornales) represents a classical example of the well‐known eastern Asian–eastern North American floristic disjunction. The genus consists of three species in eastern Asia, four species in eastern North America, and one species in Central America. Species of the genus are ecologically important trees in eastern North American and eastern Asian forests. The distribution of living species and a rich fossil record of the genus make it an excellent model for understanding the origin and evolution of the eastern Asian–eastern North American floristic disjunction. However, despite the small number of species, relationships within the genus have remained unclear and have not been elucidated using a molecular approach. Here, we integrate data from 48 nuclear genes, fossils, morphology, and ecological niche to resolve species relationships, elucidate its biogeographical history, and investigate the evolution of morphology and ecological niches, aiming at a better understanding of the well‐known EA–ENA floristic disjunction. Results showed that the Central American (CAM) Nyssa talamancana was sister to the remaining species, which were divided among three, rapidly diversified subclades. Estimated divergence times and biogeographical history suggested that Nyssa had an ancestral range in Eurasia and western North America in the late Paleocene. The rapid diversification occurred in the early Eocene, followed by multiple dispersals between and within the Erasian and North American continents. The genus experienced two major episodes of extinction in the early Oligocene and end of Neogene, respectively. The Central American N. talamancana represents a relic lineage of the boreotropical flora in the Paleocene/Eocene boundary that once diversified in western North America. The results supported the importance of both the North Atlantic land bridge and the Bering land bridge (BLB) for the Paleogene dispersals of Nyssa and the Neogene dispersals, respectively, as well as the role of Central America as refugia of the Paleogene flora. The total‐evidence‐based dated phylogeny suggested that the pattern of macroevolution of Nyssa coincided with paleoclimatic changes. We found a number of evolutionary changes in morphology (including wood anatomy and leaf traits) and ecological niches (precipitation and temperature) between the EA–ENA disjunct, supporting the ecological selection driving trait evolutions after geographic isolation. We also demonstrated challenges in phylogenomic studies of lineages with rapid diversification histories. The concatenation of gene data can lead to inference of strongly supported relationships incongruent with the species tree. However, conflicts in gene genealogies did not seem to impose a strong effect on divergence time dating in our case. Furthermore, we demonstrated that rapid diversification events may not be recovered in the divergence time dating analysis using BEAST if critical fossil constraints of the relevant nodes are not available. Our study provides an example of complex bidirectional exchanges of plants between Eurasia and North America in the Paleogene, but “out of Asia” migrations in the Neogene, to explain the present disjunct distribution of Nyssa in EA and ENA.     

Recent and rapid diversification of the small carpenter bees in eastern North America

Bees fulfil a critical ecological role as pollinators, significantly contributing to the reproductive success of myriad angiosperm species. Although increasingly appreciated for their agricultural contributions, relatively little is yet known about the natural history of the vast majority of the more than 20 000 wild bee species worldwide. The small carpenter bee genus Ceratina occurs globally, and is represented in North America by its most recently diverged subgenera, Ceratinula and Zadontomerus. Recent genetic analysis of eastern Ceratina (Zadontomerus) supports the existence of five closely related, yet genetically distinct species living in sympatry. This phylogeographical study employs molecular barcoding of the most comprehensive specimen collection yet assembled to confirm the identities of these recently diverged eastern North American Ceratina (Zadontomerus) species. Delineation of extant population structure, evolutionary history and known range of this emerging model native pollinator are greatly improved by this study. We consider ecological and behavioural factors potentially contributing to the maintenance of genetic identity among these sympatric species.     

Evolutionary response to global change: Climate and land use interact to shape color polymorphism in a woodland salamander

Evolutionary change has been demonstrated to occur rapidly in human‐modified systems, yet understanding how multiple components of global change interact to affect adaptive evolution remains a critical knowledge gap. Climate change is predicted to impose directional selection on traits to reduce thermal stress, but the strength of directional selection may be mediated by changes in the thermal environment driven by land use. We examined how regional climatic conditions and land use interact to affect genetically based color polymorphism in the eastern red‐backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus). P. cinereus is a woodland salamander with two primary discrete color morphs (striped, unstriped) that have been associated with macroclimatic conditions. Striped individuals are most common in colder regions, but morph frequencies can be variable within climate zones. We used path analysis to analyze morph frequencies among 238,591 individual salamanders across 1,170 sites in North America. Frequency of striped individuals was positively related to forest cover in populations occurring in warmer regions (>7°C annually), a relationship that was weak to nonexistent in populations located in colder regions (≤7°C annually). Our results suggest that directional selection imposed by climate warming at a regional scale may be amplified by forest loss and suppressed by forest persistence, with a mediating effect of land use that varies geographically. Our work highlights how the complex interaction of selection pressures imposed by different components of global change may lead to divergent evolutionary trajectories among populations.     

A rangewide herbarium‐derived dataset indicates high levels of gene flow in black cherry (Prunus serotina)

Isolation by Distance (IBD) is a genetic pattern in which populations geographically closer to one another are more genetically similar to each other than populations which are farther apart. Black cherry (Prunus serotina Ehrh.) (Rosaceae) is a forest tree species widespread in eastern North America, and found sporadically in the southwestern United States, Mexico, and Guatemala. IBD has been studied in relatively few North American plant taxa, and no study has rigorously sampled across the range of such a widespread species. In this study, IBD and overall genetic structure were assessed in eastern black cherry (P. serotina Ehrh. var. serotina), the widespread variety of eastern North America. Eastern North America. Prunus serotina Ehrh. var. serotina (Rosaceae). Dense sampling across the entire range of eastern black cherry was made possible by genotyping 15 microsatellite loci in 439 herbarium samples from all portions of the range. Mantel tests and STRUCTURE analyses were performed to evaluate the hypothesis of IBD and genetic structure. Mantel tests demonstrated significant but weak IBD, while STRUCTURE analyses revealed no clear geographic pattern of genetic groups. The modest geographic/genetic structure across the eastern black cherry range suggests widespread gene flow in this taxon. This is consistent with P. serotina's status as a disturbance‐associated species. Further studies should similarly evaluate IBD in species characteristic of low‐disturbance forests.     

Multilocus analysis of nucleotide variation and speciation in three closely related Populus (Salicaceae) species

Historical tectonism and climate oscillations can isolate and contract the geographical distributions of many plant species, and they are even known to trigger species divergence and ultimately speciation. Here, we estimated the nucleotide variation and speciation in three closely related Populus species, Populus tremuloides, P. tremula and P. davidiana, distributed in North America and Eurasia. We analysed the sequence variation in six single‐copy nuclear loci and three chloroplast (cpDNA) fragments in 497 individuals sampled from 33 populations of these three species across their geographic distributions. These three Populus species harboured relatively high levels of nucleotide diversity and showed high levels of nucleotide differentiation. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that P. tremuloides diverged earlier than the other two species. The cpDNA haplotype network result clearly illustrated the dispersal route from North America to eastern Asia and then into Europe. Molecular dating results confirmed that the divergence of these three species coincided with the sundering of the Bering land bridge in the late Miocene and a rapid uplift of the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau around the Miocene/Pliocene boundary. Vicariance‐driven successful allopatric speciation resulting from historical tectonism and climate oscillations most likely played roles in the formation of the disjunct distributions and divergence of these three Populus species.     

Species richness in plant genera disjunct between temperate eastern Asia and North America

The species richness of 109 amphi-Pacific disjunct genera was examined in eastern Asia and North America. Although the entire flora of eastern Asia contains approximately one-third more species than that of North America, the difference in species richness among disjunct taxa is less. When woody and herbaceous genera are considered separately, the former exhibit a strong diversity bias favouring eastern Asia whereas there is no significant difference in diversity between continents among herbaceous genera. This result is not due to habitat differences between woody and herbaceous genera, because the disjunct herbs inhabit primarily moist forests and woodlands. This result is also not related to relative phylogenetic advancement, even though older major lineages of plants tend to have a predominance of woody taxa. Woody genera are distributed in lower latitudes than herbaceous genera on both continents, and both woody and herbaceous genera are distributed in lower latitudes in eastern Asia than in North America. The North American temperate flora is primarily a relict of a flora form 7 more widespread throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Contemporary patterns of diversity suggest that the effects of climate changes in the late Tertiary were less severe in eastern Asia and promoted diversification, but were more severe in North America and may have caused widespread extinction. The difference in the effect of climate change on diversity in herbaceous and woody lineages reflects the different ecological relationships of species having these contrasting life forms. Clearly, the contemporary floras of eastern Asia and North America bear the imprint of history and emphasize the important interface between ecological relationships and evolutionary responses.     

Interglacial microrefugia and diversification of a cactus species complex: phylogeography and palaeodistributional reconstructions for Pilosocereus aurisetus and allies

The role of Pleistocene climate changes in promoting evolutionary diversification in global biota is well documented, but the great majority of data regarding this subject come from North America and Europe, which were greatly affected by glaciation. The effects of Pleistocene changes on cold‐ and/or dry‐adapted species in tropical areas where glaciers were not present remain sparsely investigated. Many such species are restricted to small areas surrounded by unfavourable habitats, which may represent potential interglacial microrefugia. Here, we analysed the phylogeographic structure and diversification history of seven cactus species in the Pilosocereus aurisetus complex that are restricted to rocky areas with high diversity and endemism within the Neotropical savannas of eastern South America. We combined palaeodistributional estimates with standard phylogeographic approaches based on two chloroplast DNA regions (trnT‐trnL and trnS‐trnG), exon 1 of the nuclear gene PhyC and 10 nuclear microsatellite loci. Our analyses revealed a phylogeographic history marked by multiple levels of distributional fragmentation, isolation leading to allopatric differentiation and secondary contact among divergent lineages within the complex. Diversification and demographic events appear to have been affected by the Quaternary climatic cycles as a result of isolation in multiple patches of xerophytic vegetation. These small patches presently harbouring P. aurisetus populations seem to operate as microrefugia, both at present and during Pleistocene interglacial periods; the role of such microrefugia should be explored and analysed in greater detail.     

Genetic signatures of natural selection in response to air pollution in red spruce (Picea rubens,Pinaceae)

One of the most important drivers of local adaptation for forest trees is climate. Coupled to these patterns, however, are human‐induced disturbances through habitat modification and pollution. The confounded effects of climate and disturbance have rarely been investigated with regard to selective pressure on forest trees. Here, we have developed and used a population genetic approach to search for signals of selection within a set of 36 candidate genes chosen for their putative effects on adaptation to climate and human‐induced air pollution within five populations of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.), distributed across its natural range and air pollution gradient in eastern North America. Specifically, we used F_ST outlier and environmental correlation analyses to highlight a set of seven single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were overly correlated with climate and levels of sulphate pollution after correcting for the confounding effects of population history. Use of three age cohorts within each population allowed the effects of climate and pollution to be separated temporally, as climate‐related SNPs (n = 7) showed the strongest signals in the oldest cohort, while pollution‐related SNPs (n = 3) showed the strongest signals in the youngest cohorts. These results highlight the usefulness of population genetic scans for the identification of putatively nonneutral evolution within genomes of nonmodel forest tree species, but also highlight the need for the development and application of robust methodologies to deal with the inherent multivariate nature of the genetic and ecological data used in these types of analyses.     

Do flatland‐ and mountain‐dwelling species show different structuring of their experienced environment over latitude? A western vs. central‐eastern North America rodent multispecies comparison

Species occurrence databases and climate databases were used to examine differences in patterns of species experienced climate across latitude for wide‐ranging rodents in the central‐eastern and western North America. The accumulated data were used to address three questions: (1) Do rodent species in the central and eastern region of North America select habitat at range edges to remain closer to climate conditions at the range core? (2) Is there a trend toward species having greater experienced climate variation consistent with smaller effects of orbitally controlled climate oscillations in the south vs. north? (3) How do species experienced temperature, precipitation, and elevation means and variation in this region compare to rodent species in the adjacent but more heterogeneous western North America? Results showed that central‐eastern North American species occur in as wide a range of environmental conditions as available throughout their ranges. These patterns are different from previous findings for rodents in the adjacent western USA and highlight major differences in current structure of species experienced environmental means and variation over latitude for species in spatially heterogeneous, mountainous areas vs. those that occupy flatter lands. The differences are likely important for determining differential response to climate changes.     

Do genetic structure and landscape heterogeneity impact color morph frequency in a polymorphic salamander?

Landscape heterogeneity plays an important role in population structure and divergence, particularly for species with limited vagility. Here, we used a landscape genetic approach to identify how landscape and environmental variables affect genetic structure and color morph frequency in a polymorphic salamander. The eastern red‐backed salamander, Plethodon cinereus, is widely distributed in northeastern North America and contains two common color morphs, striped and unstriped, that are divergent in ecology, behavior, and physiology. To quantify population structure, rates of gene flow, and genetic drift, we amplified 10 microsatellite loci from 648 individuals across 28 sampling localities. This study was conducted in northern Ohio, where populations of P. cinereus exhibit an unusually wide range of morph frequency variation. To test whether genetic distance was more correlated with morph frequency, elevation, canopy cover, waterways, ecological niche or geographic distance, we used resistance distance and least cost path analyses. We then examined whether landscape and environmental variables, genetic distance or geographic distance were correlated with variation in morph frequency. Tests for population structure revealed three genetic clusters across our sampling range, with one cluster monomorphic for the striped morph. Rates of gene flow and genetic drift were low to moderate across sites. Genetic distance was most correlated with ecological niche, elevation and a combination of landscape and environmental variables. In contrast, morph frequency variation was correlated with waterways and geographic distance. Thus, our results suggest that selection is also an important evolutionary force across our sites, and a balance between gene flow, genetic drift and selection interact to maintain the two color morphs.     

Y‐chromosome evidence supports widespread signatures of three‐species Canis hybridization in eastern North America

There has been considerable discussion on the origin of the red wolf and eastern wolf and their evolution independent of the gray wolf. We analyzed mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and a Y‐chromosome intron sequence in combination with Y‐chromosome microsatellites from wolves and coyotes within the range of extensive wolf–coyote hybridization, that is, eastern North America. The detection of divergent Y‐chromosome haplotypes in the historic range of the eastern wolf is concordant with earlier mtDNA findings, and the absence of these haplotypes in western coyotes supports the existence of the North American evolved eastern wolf (Canis lycaon). Having haplotypes observed exclusively in eastern North America as a result of insufficient sampling in the historic range of the coyote or that these lineages subsequently went extinct in western geographies is unlikely given that eastern‐specific mtDNA and Y‐chromosome haplotypes represent lineages divergent from those observed in extant western coyotes. By combining Y‐chromosome and mtDNA distributional patterns, we identified hybrid genomes of eastern wolf, coyote, gray wolf, and potentially dog origin in Canis populations of central and eastern North America. The natural contemporary eastern Canis populations represent an important example of widespread introgression resulting in hybrid genomes across the original C. lycaon range that appears to be facilitated by the eastern wolf acting as a conduit for hybridization. Applying conventional taxonomic nomenclature and species‐based conservation initiatives, particularly in human‐modified landscapes, may be counterproductive to the effective management of these hybrids and fails to consider their evolutionary potential.     

Phylogenomics,biogeography, and evolution of the blue‐ or white‐fruited dogwoods (Cornus)—Insights into morphological and ecological niche divergence following intercontinental geographic isolation

The eastern Asian (EA)–eastern North American (ENA) floristic disjunction represents a major pattern of phytogeography of the Northern Hemisphere. Despite 20 years of studies dedicated to identification of taxa that display this disjunct pattern, its origin and evolution remain an open question, especially regarding post‐isolation evolution. The blue‐ or white‐fruited dogwoods (BW) are the most species‐rich among the four major clades of Cornus L., consisting of ~35 species divided into three subgenera (subg. Yinquania, subg. Mesomora, and subg. Kraniopsis). The BW group provides an excellent example of the EA–ENA floristic disjunction for biogeographic study due to its diversity distribution centered in eastern Asia and eastern North America, yet its species relationships and delineation have remained poorly understood. In this study, we combined genome‐wide markers from RAD‐seq, morphology, fossils, and climate data to understand species relationships, biogeographic history, and ecological niche and morphological evolution. Our phylogenomic analyses with RAxML and MrBayes recovered a strongly supported and well‐resolved phylogeny of the BW group with three intercontinental disjunct clades in EA and ENA or Eurasia and North America, of which two are newly identified within subg. Kraniopsis. These analyses also recovered a potential new species but failed to resolve relationships within the C. hemsleyi–C. schindleri complex. In an effort to develop an approach to reduce computation time, analysis of different nodal age settings in treePL suggests setting a node's minimum age constraint to the lower bound of a fossil's age range to obtain similar ages to that of BEAST. Divergence time analyses with BEAST and treePL dated the BW stem back to the very Late Cretaceous and the divergence of the three subgenera in the Paleogene. By integrating fossil ages and morphology, a total evidence‐based dating approach was used in conjunction with time‐slice probabilities of dispersal under a DEC model to resolve ancestral ranges of each disjunct in the Miocene: Eurasia and ENA (disjunct 1), EA and western North America (disjunct 2), and EA (disjunct 3). The dated biogeographic history supports dispersal via the North Atlantic Land Bridge in the late Paleogene in disjunct 1 and dispersal via the Bering Land Bridge in the Miocene for disjuncts 2 and 3. Character mapping with a stochastic model in phytools and comparison of ecological niche, morphospace, and rate of evolution indicated differential divergence patterns in morphology, ecological niche, and molecules between disjunct sisters. Although morphological stasis was observed in most of the characters, evolutionary changes in growth habit and some features of leaf, flower, and fruit morphology occurred in one or both sister clades. A significant differentiation of ecological habitats in temperature, precipitation, and elevation between disjunct sisters was observed, suggesting a role of niche divergence in morphological evolution post‐isolation. The patterns of evolutionary rate between morphology and molecules varied among disjunct clades and were not always congruent between morphology and molecules, suggesting cases of non‐neutral morphological evolution driven by ecological selection. Our phylogenetic evidence and comparisons of evolutionary rate among disjunct lineages lend new insights into the formation of the diversity anomaly between EA and ENA, with particular support of an early diversification in EA. These findings, in conjunction with previous studies, again suggest that the EA–ENA disjunct floras are an assembly of lineages descended from the Mesophytic Forests that evolved from the early Paleogene “boreotropical flora” through varied evolutionary pathways across lineages.     

Association between host wing morphology polymorphism and Wolbachia infection in Vollenhovia emeryi (Hymenoptera: Myrmicinae)

Many eusocial insects, including ants, show complex colony structures, distributions, and reproductive strategies. In the ant Vollenhovia emeryi Wheeler (Hymenoptera: Myrmicinae), queens and males are produced clonally, while sterile workers arise sexually, unlike other ant species and Hymenopteran insects in general. Furthermore, there is a wing length polymorphism in the queen caste. Despite its evolutionary remarkable traits, little is known about the population structure of this ant species, which may provide insight into its unique reproductive mode and polymorphic traits. We performed in‐depth analyses of ant populations from Korea, Japan, and North America using three mitochondrial genes (COI, COII, and Cytb). The long‐winged (L) morph is predominant in Korean populations, and the short‐winged (S) morph is very rare. Interestingly, all L morphs were infected with Wolbachia, while all Korean S morphs lacked Wolbachia, demonstrating a association between a symbiont and a phenotypic trait. A phylogenetic analysis revealed that the S morph is derived from the L morph. We propose that the S morph is associated with potential resistance to Wolbachia infection and that Wolbachia infection does not influence clonal reproduction (as is the case in other ant species).     

Batesian mimics influence the evolution of conspicuousness in an aposematic salamander

Conspicuousness, or having high contrast relative to the surrounding background, is a common feature of unpalatable species. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the occurrence of conspicuousness, and while most involve the role of conspicuousness as a direct signal of unpalatability to potential predators, one hypothesis suggests that exaggerated conspicuousness may evolve in unpalatable species to reduce predator confusion with palatable species (potential Batesian mimics). This hypothesis of antagonistic coevolution between palatable and unpalatable species hinges on the ‘cost of conspicuousness’, in which conspicuousness increases the likelihood of predation more in palatable species than in unpalatable species. Under this mimicry scenario, four patterns are expected: (i) mimics will more closely resemble local models than models from other localities, (ii) there will be a positive relationship between mimic and model conspicuousness, (iii) models will be more conspicuous in the presence of mimics, and (iv) when models and mimics differ in conspicuousness, mimics will be less conspicuous than models. We tested these predictions in the salamander mimicry system involving Notophthalmus viridescens (model) and one colour morph of Plethodon cinereus (mimic). All predictions were supported, indicating that selection for Batesian mimicry not only influences the evolution of mimics, but also the evolution of the models they resemble. These findings indicate that mimicry plays a large role in the evolution of model warning signals, particularly influencing the evolution of conspicuousness.     

Unpacking the ‘black box’: Improving ecological interpretation of regression-based models

Aim

Many tree species distribution models use black-box machine learning techniques that often neglect interpretative aspects and instead focus mainly on maximizing predictive accuracy. In this study, we outline an interpretative modelling framework to gain better ecological insights while mapping abundance patterns of six North American species.

Location

Continental United States and Canada.

Methods

We develop an innovative procedure using regression trees by stabilizing variance, and mapping dominant rules which we term ‘optimized regression tree bagging for interpretation and mapping’ (ORTBIM). We apply this technique to understand ecological features influencing the abundance patterns of three eastern (Pinus strobus, Acer saccharum and Quercus montana), and three western (Picea engelmannii, Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii) tree species in North America. For these species, we assess and map the dominant climate–terrain interactions that partly determine abundance patterns in the eastern and western regions. In the process, we examine the role of varying responses and scales and explore finer-scale species climate–terrain niches and non-linear relationships.

Results

Our study emphasizes the prominent role of elevation and heat–moisture variables in the west and the greater importance of seasonal precipitation and seasonal temperature in the east. The abundance patterns under future climate (SSP5-8.5) show climate–terrain habitats shifting northward and westward into Canada and Alaska for the eastern species, and predominantly north-westward for the western species.

Conclusion

Our interpretative modelling framework can be used to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the abundance patterns across the full species range, formulate better predictive models and facilitate improved management practices under climate change.