Tree species growth response to climate warming varies by forest canopy position in boreal and temperate forests

Reports of forest sensitivity to climate change are based largely on the study of overstory trees, which contribute significantly to forest growth and wood supply. However, juveniles in the understory are also critical to predict future forest dynamics and demographics, but their sensitivity to climate remains less known. In this study, we applied boosted regression tree analysis to compare the sensitivity of understory and overstory trees for the 10 most common tree species in eastern North America using growth information from an unprecedented network of nearly 1.5 million tree records from 20,174 widely distributed, permanent sample plots across Canada and the United States. Fitted models were then used to project the near-term (2041–2070) growth for each canopy and tree species. We observed an overall positive effect of warming on tree growth for both canopies and most species, leading to an average of 7.8%–12.2% projected growth gains with climate change under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The magnitude of these gains peaked in colder, northern areas for both canopies, while growth declines are projected for overstory trees in warmer, southern regions. Relative to overstory trees, understory tree growth was less positively affected by warming in northern regions, while displaying more positive responses in southern areas, likely driven by the buffering effect of the canopy from warming and climate extremes. Observed differences in climatic sensitivity between canopy positions underscore the importance of accounting for differential growth responses to climate between forest strata in future studies to improve ecological forecasts. Furthermore, latitudinal variation in the differential sensitivity of forest strata to climate reported here may help refine our comprehension of species range shift and changes in suitable habitat under climate change.     

Thermal acclimation of photosynthesis: a comparison of boreal and temperate tree species along a latitudinal transect

Common gardens were established along a ～900 km latitudinal transect to examine factors limiting geographical distributions of boreal and temperate tree species in eastern North America. Boreal representatives were trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) and paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.), while temperate species were eastern cottonwood (Populus deltoides Bartr ex. Marsh var. deltoides) and sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua L.). The species were compared with respect to adjustments of leaf photosynthetic metabolism along the transect, with emphasis on temperature sensitivities of the maximum rate of ribulose bisphosphate (RuBP) carboxylation (E_V) and regeneration (E_J). During leaf development, the average air temperature (T_growth) differed between the coolest and warmest gardens by 12 °C. Evidence of photosynthetic thermal acclimation (metabolic shifts compensating for differences in T_growth) was generally lacking in all species. Namely, neither E_V nor E_J was positively related to T_growth. Correspondingly, the optimum temperature (T_opt) of ambient photosynthesis (A_sat) did not vary significantly with T_growth. Modest variation in T_opt was explained by the combination of E_V plus the slope and curvature of the parabolic temperature response of mesophyll conductance (g_m). All in all, species differed little in photosynthetic responses to climate. Furthermore, the adaptive importance of photosynthetic thermal acclimation was overshadowed by g_m's influence on A_sat's temperature response.     

Climate tracking by freshwater fishes suggests that fish diversity in temperate lakes may be increasingly threatened by climate warming

Aim

Many freshwater fishes are migrating poleward to more thermally suitable habitats in response to warming climates. In this study, we aimed to identify which freshwater fishes are most sensitive to climatic changes and asked: (i) how fast are lakes warming? (ii) how fast are fishes moving? and (iii) are freshwater fishes tracking climate?

Location

Ontario, Canada.

Methods

We assembled a database containing time series data on climate and species occurrence data from 10,732 lakes between 1986 and 2017. We calculated the rate of lake warming and climate velocity for these lakes. Climate velocities were compared with biotic velocities, specifically the rate at which the northernmost extent of each species shifted north.

Results

Lakes in Ontario warmed by 0.2°C decade⁻¹ on average, at a climate velocity of 9.4 km decade⁻¹ between 1986 and 2017. In response, some freshwater fishes have shifted their northern range boundaries with considerable interspecific variation ranging from species moving southwards at a rate of −58.9 km decade⁻¹ to species ranges moving northwards at a rate of 83.6 km decade⁻¹ over the same time period. More freshwater fish species are moving into northern lakes in Ontario than those being lost. Generally, predators are moving their range edges northwards, whereas prey fishes are being lost from northern lakes.

Main Conclusions

The concurrent loss of cooler refugia, combined with antagonistic competitive and predatory interactions with the range expanding species, has resulted in many commercially important predators moving their range edges northwards, whereas prey species have contracted their northern range edge boundaries. Trophic partitioning of range shifts highlights a previously undocumented observation of the loss of freshwater fishes from lower trophic levels in response to climate-driven migrations.     

Species-specific flowering phenology responses to experimental warming and drought alter herbaceous plant species overlap in a temperate–boreal forest community

Background and AimsWarmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns are expected to continue to occur as the climate changes. How these changes will impact the flowering phenology of herbaceous perennials in northern forests is poorly understood but could have consequences for forest functioning and species interactions. Here, we examine the flowering phenology responses of five herbaceous perennials to experimental warming and reduced summer rainfall over 3 years.MethodsThis study is part of the B4WarmED experiment located at two sites in northern Minnesota, USA. Three levels of warming (ambient, +1.6 °C and +3.1 °C) were crossed with two rainfall manipulations (ambient and 27 % reduced growing season rainfall).Key ResultsWe observed species-specific responses to the experimental treatments. Warming alone advanced flowering for four species. Most notably, the two autumn blooming species showed the strongest advance of flowering to warming. Reduced rainfall alone advanced flowering for one autumn blooming species and delayed flowering for the other, with no significant impact on the three early blooming species. Only one species, Solidago spp., showed an interactive response to warming and rainfall manipulation by advancing in +1.6 °C warming (regardless of rainfall manipulation) but not advancing in the warmest, driest treatment. Species-specific responses led to changes in temporal overlap between species. Most notably, the two autumn blooming species diverged significantly in their flowering timing. In ambient conditions, these two species flowered within the same week. In the warmest, driest treatment, flowering occurred over a month apart.ConclusionsHerbaceous species may differ in how they respond to future climate conditions. Changes to phenology may lead to fewer resources for insects or a mismatch between plants and pollinators.     

Contrasting responses of black fly species (Diptera: Simuliidae) to experimental whole-stream warming

1. As global temperatures continue to rise, assessment of how species within ecological communities respond to shifts in temperature has become increasingly important. However, such assessments require detailed long-term observations or ecosystem-level manipulations that allow for interactions among species and the potential for species dispersal and exchange with the regional species pool.
2. We examined the effects of experimental whole-stream warming on a larval black fly assemblage in southwest Iceland. We used a paired-catchment design, in which we studied the warmed stream and a nearby reference stream for 1 year prior to warming and 2 years during warming and estimated population abundance, biomass, secondary production, and growth rates for larvae of three black fly species.
3. Experimental warming by 3.8°C had contrasting effects on the three black fly species in the assemblage. The abundance, biomass, growth, and production of Prosimulium ursinum decreased in the experimental stream during the warming manipulation. Despite increasing in the reference stream, the abundance, biomass, and production of another species, Simulium vernum, decreased in the experimental stream during warming.
4. In contrast, warming had an overall positive effect on Simulium vittatum. While warming had little effect on the growth of overwintering cohorts of S. vittatum, warming led to an additional cohort during the summer months and increased its abundance, biomass, and production. Overall, family-level production was enhanced by warming, despite variation in species-level responses.
5. Our study illustrates that the effects of climate warming are likely to differ even among closely related species. Moreover, our study highlights the need for further investigation into the uneven effects of warming on individual species and how those variable effects influence food web dynamics and ecosystem function.

     

Phenological synchrony between eastern spruce budworm and its host trees increases with warmer temperatures in the boreal forest

Climate change is predicted to alter relationships between trophic levels by changing the phenology of interacting species. We tested whether synchrony between two critical phenological events, budburst of host species and larval emergence from diapause of eastern spruce budworm, increased at warmer temperatures in the boreal forest in northeastern Canada. Budburst was up to 4.6 ± 0.7 days earlier in balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days earlier in black spruce per degree increase in temperature, in naturally occurring microclimates. Larval emergence from diapause did not exhibit a similar response. Instead, larvae emerged once average ambient temperatures reached 10°C, regardless of differences in microclimate. Phenological synchrony increased with warmer microclimates, tightening the relationship between spruce budworm and its host species. Synchrony increased by up to 4.5 ± 0.7 days for balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days for black spruce per degree increase in temperature. Under a warmer climate, defoliation could potentially begin earlier in the season, in which case, damage on the primary host, balsam fir may increase. Black spruce, which escapes severe herbivory because of a 2‐week delay in budburst, would become more suitable as a resource for the spruce budworm. The northern boreal forest could become more vulnerable to outbreaks in the future.     

Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change

This study assessed potential changes in the distributions of Australian butterfly species in response to global warming. The bioclimatic program, BIOCLIM, was used to determine the current climatic ranges of 77 butterfly species restricted to Australia. We found that the majority of these species had fairly wide climatic ranges in comparison to other taxa, with only 8% of butterfly species having a mean annual temperature range spanning less than 3 °C. The potential changes in the distributions of 24 butterfly species under four climate change scenarios for 2050 were also modelled using BIOCLIM. Results suggested that even species with currently wide climatic ranges may still be vulnerable to climate change; under a very conservative climate change scenario (with a temperature increase of 0.8–1.4 °C by 2050) 88% of species distributions decreased, and 54% of species distributions decreased by at least 20%. Under an extreme scenario (temperature increase of 2.1–3.9 °C by 2050) 92% of species distributions decreased, and 83% of species distributions decreased by at least 50%. Furthermore, the proportion of the current range that was contained within the predicted range decreased from an average of 63% under a very conservative scenario to less than 22% under the most extreme scenario. By assessing the climatic ranges that species are currently exposed to, the extent of potential changes in distributions in response to climate change and details of their life histories, we identified species whose characteristics may make them particularly vulnerable to climate change in the future.     

Functional leaf and size traits determine the photosynthetic response of 10 dryland species to warming

Aims Relatively few studies so far have assessed how ongoing global warming will affect the photosynthetic performance of dryland plant species. We evaluated the effects of warming on the photosynthetic rates of 10 species with contrasting functional attributes, and whether their functional traits modulated photosynthetic responses to warming.Methods A common garden experiment was conducted over 2 years with distinct environmental conditions (drier vs. wetter year). The experiment was designed as a randomized block design with two treatments: warming (control vs. ~2.9°C temperature increase) and species (Agropyron cristatum, Festuca ovina, Lygeum spartum, Medicago sativa, Plantago lanceolata, Psoralea bituminosa, Sanguisorba minor, Hedysarum coronarium, Dorycnium pentaphyllum and Phlomis herba-venti). We linked functional traits measurements with temporal variations in photosynthetic responses to warming.Important findings In the drier year, warming increased photosynthetic rates at the beginning of the growing season, suggesting a modification in the growing period (earlier spring). In the wetter year, functional traits modulated photosynthetic responses to warming. Larger species with shorter leaves (e.g. M. sativa) had higher photosynthetic rates under warming compared to smaller species with larger leaves (e.g. F. ovina). Our results highlight the importance of (i) studying photosynthetic responses along different years and (ii) considering functional traits when evaluating photosynthetic responses to climate change, particularly in stressful environments such as drylands.     

The demography of range boundaries versus range cores in eastern US tree species

Regional species–climate correlations are well documented, but little is known about the ecological processes responsible for generating these patterns. Using the data from over 690 000 individual trees I estimated five demographic rates—canopy growth, understorey growth, canopy lifespan, understorey lifespan and per capita reproduction—for 19 common eastern US tree species, within the core and the northern and southern boundaries, of the species range. Most species showed statistically significant boundary versus core differences in most rates at both boundary types. Differences in canopy and understorey growth were relatively small in magnitude but consistent among species, being lower at the northern (average −17%) and higher at the southern (average +12%) boundaries. Differences in lifespan were larger in magnitude but highly variable among species, except for a marked trend for reduced canopy lifespan at the northern boundary (average −49%). Differences in per capita reproduction were large and statistically significant for some species, but highly variable among species. The rate estimates were combined to calculate two performance indices: R₀ (a measure of lifetime fitness in the absence of competition) was consistently lower at the northern boundary (average −86%) whereas Z^* (a measure of competitive ability in closed forest) showed no sign of a consistent boundary–core difference at either boundary.     

Rapid range expansion and community reorganization in response to warming

Species ranges are expected to expand along their cooler boundaries in response to rising temperatures associated with current global climate change. However, this ‘fingerprint’ of climate change is yet to be assessed for an entire flora. Here, we examine patterns of altitudinal range change in the complete native vascular flora of sub‐Antarctic Marion Island. We demonstrate a rapid mean upslope expansion in the flora since 1966, in response to 1.2 °C warming on the island. The 3.4±0.8 m yr^?1 (mean±SE) upslope expansion rate documented is amongst the highest estimates from partial floras. However, less than half of the species in the flora were responsible for the expansion trend, demonstrating that the global fingerprint of warming may be driven by a highly responsive subset of the species pool. Individual range expansion rates varied greatly, with species‐specific niche requirements explaining some of this variation. As a result of the idiosyncratic expansion rates, altitudinal patterns of species richness and community composition changed considerably, with the formation of no‐analog communities at high and intermediate altitudes. Therefore, both species‐ and community‐level changes have occurred in the flora of Marion Island over a relatively short period of rapid warming, demonstrating the sensitivity of high latitude communities to climate change. Patterns of change within this flora illustrate the range of variation in species responses to climate change and the consequences thereof for species distributions and community reorganization.     

山地物种海拔分布对气候变化响应的研究进展

过去1个世纪以来, 全球气候变化显著并已成为全球生物多样性面临的重要威胁之一。如何利用有限的资源最有效地保护生物多样性已成为亟待解决的最重要科学问题之一。山地因其具有较高的生境异质性、气候多样性和较低的人类活动干扰, 已成为最重要的生物多样性避难所, 也具有较高的生态服务价值, 在生物多样性保护中扮演着重要角色。但山地更容易受到气候变化的影响, 山地地区较为剧烈的气候变化将对山地生态系统的稳定性及其多样性造成严重威胁。理解山地物种海拔分布对气候变化的响应和潜在机理, 以及气候变化带来的物种海拔分布变化的负面效应, 将为全球气候变化背景下的山地生物多样性保护提供参考依据。本文综述了全球山地地区的气候变化情况, 总结了物种海拔迁移的研究进展, 重点讨论了山地物种分布最适海拔、海拔上下限和海拔分布范围变化的研究进展及不足, 比较了不同地区和不同类群物种海拔迁移的差异性, 以及物种对气候变化响应的滞后性。从生物及非生物因素等多个角度概括了物种海拔迁移响应气候变化的潜在机理, 评估并总结了气候变化引起的物种海拔分布所产生的负面效应, 主要对物种向上迁移对高海拔地区物种多样性的影响、物种迁移带来的分布区改变导致的物种灭绝风险以及物种海拔分布变化导致的种间相互作用改变等方面进行全面探讨。最后, 展望了未来在此领域研究中应注意的问题, 提出了在未来气候变化下山地生物多样性保护需要采取的措施, 强调应重点关注对气候变化较为敏感的类群及生物多样性区域, 加强中国山地物种对气候变化响应的监测网络建设和研究力度, 重点加强监测气候变化对动植物互作关系的影响。     

The capacity to emit isoprene differentiates the photosynthetic temperature responses of tropical plant species

Experimental research shows that isoprene emission by plants can improve photosynthetic performance at high temperatures. But whether species that emit isoprene have higher thermal limits than non‐emitting species remains largely untested. Tropical plants are adapted to narrow temperature ranges and global warming could result in significant ecosystem restructuring due to small variations in species' thermal tolerances. We compared photosynthetic temperature responses of 26 co‐occurring tropical tree and liana species to test whether isoprene‐emitting species are more tolerant to high temperatures. We classified species as isoprene emitters versus non‐emitters based on published datasets. Maximum temperatures for net photosynthesis were ~1.8°C higher for isoprene‐emitting species than for non‐emitters, and thermal response curves were 24% wider; differences in optimum temperatures (T_opt) or photosynthetic rates at T_opt were not significant. Modelling the carbon cost of isoprene emission, we show that even strong emission rates cause little reduction in the net carbon assimilation advantage over non‐emitters at supraoptimal temperatures. Isoprene emissions may alleviate biochemical limitations, which together with stomatal conductance, co‐limit photosynthesis above T_opt. Our findings provide evidence that isoprene emission may be an adaptation to warmer thermal niches, and that emitting species may fare better under global warming than co‐occurring non‐emitting species.     

Thermal plasticity of photosynthesis: the role of acclimation in forest responses to a warming climate

The increasing air temperatures central to climate change predictions have the potential to alter forest ecosystem function and structure by exceeding temperatures optimal for carbon gain. Such changes are projected to threaten survival of sensitive species, leading to local extinctions, range migrations, and altered forest composition. This study investigated photosynthetic sensitivity to temperature and the potential for acclimation in relation to the climatic provenance of five species of deciduous trees, Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus rubra, Quercus falcata, Betula alleghaniensis, and Populus grandidentata. Open‐top chambers supplied three levels of warming (+0, +2, and +4 °C above ambient) over 3 years, tracking natural temperature variability. Optimal temperature for CO₂ assimilation was strongly correlated with daytime temperature in all treatments, but assimilation rates at those optima were comparable. Adjustment of thermal optima was confirmed in all species, whether temperatures varied with season or treatment, and regardless of climate in the species' range or provenance of the plant material. Temperature optima from 17° to 34° were observed. Across species, acclimation potentials varied from 0.55 °C to 1.07 °C per degree change in daytime temperature. Responses to the temperature manipulation were not different from the seasonal acclimation observed in mature indigenous trees, suggesting that photosynthetic responses should not be modeled using static temperature functions, but should incorporate an adjustment to account for acclimation. The high degree of homeostasis observed indicates that direct impacts of climatic warming on forest productivity, species survival, and range limits may be less than predicted by existing models.     

Acclimation of respiration to temperature and CO2 in seedlings of boreal tree species in relation to plant size and relative growth rate

The role of acclimation of dark respiration to temperature and CO₂ concentration and its relationship to growth are critical in determining plant response to predicted global change. We explored temperature acclimation of respiration in seedlings of tree species of the North American boreal forest. Populus tremuloides, Betula papyrifera, Larix laricina, Pinus banksiana, and Picea mariana plants were grown from seed in controlled-environments at current and elevated concentrations of CO₂ (370 and 580 μmol mol^–1) in combination with three temperature treatments of 18/12, 24/18, and 30/24 °C (light/dark period). Specific respiration rates of roots and shoots acclimated to temperature, damping increases in rates across growth-temperature environments compared to short-term temperature responses. Compared at a standard temperature, root and shoot respiration rates were, on average, 40% lower in plants grown at the highest compared to lowest growth temperature. Broad-leaved species had a lower degree of temperature acclimation of respiration than did the conifers. Among species and treatment combinations, rates of respiration were linearly related to size and relative growth rate, and relationships were comparable among growth environments. Specific respiration rates and whole-plant respiratory CO₂ efflux as a proportion of daily net CO₂ uptake increased at higher growth temperatures, but were minimally affected by CO₂ concentration. Whole-plant specific respiration rates were two to three times higher in broad-leaved than coniferous species. However, compared to faster-growing broad-leaved species, slower-growing conifers lost a larger proportion of net daily CO₂ uptake as respiratory CO₂ efflux, especially in roots. Interspecific variation in acclimation responses of dark respiration to temperature is more important than acclimation of respiration to CO₂ enrichment in modifying tree seedling growth responses to projected increases in CO₂ concentration and temperature.     

Radial growth response of four dominant boreal tree species to climate along a latitudinal gradient in the eastern Canadian boreal forest

To address the central question of how climate change influences tree growth within the context of global warming, we used dendroclimatological analysis to understand the reactions of four major boreal tree species –Populus tremuloides, Betula papyrifera, Picea mariana, and Pinus banksiana– to climatic variations along a broad latitudinal gradient from 46 to 54°N in the eastern Canadian boreal forest. Tree‐ring chronologies from 34 forested stands distributed at a 1° interval were built, transformed into principal components (PCs), and analyzed through bootstrapped correlation analysis over the period 1950–2003 to identify climate factors limiting the radial growth and the detailed radial growth–climate association along the gradient. All species taken together, previous summer temperature (negative influences), and current January and March–April temperatures (positive influences) showed the most consistent relationships with radial growth across the gradient. Combined with the identified species/site‐specific climate factors, our study suggested that moisture conditions during the year before radial growth played a dominant role in positively regulating P. tremuloides growth, whereas January temperature and growing season moisture conditions positively impacted growth of B. papyrifera. Both P. mariana and P. banksiana were positively affected by the current‐year winter and spring or whole growing season temperatures over the entire range of our corridor. Owing to the impacts of different climate factors on growth, these boreal species showed inconsistent responsiveness to recent warming at the transition zone, where B. papyrifera, P. mariana, and P. banksiana would be the most responsive species, whereas P. tremuloides might be the least. Under continued warming, B. papyrifera stands located north of 49°N, P. tremuloides at northern latitudes, and P. mariana and P. banksiana stands located north of 47°N might benefit from warming winter and spring temperatures to enhance their radial growth in the coming decades, whereas other southern stands might be decreasing in radial growth.     

Divergent carbon cycle response of forest and grass‐dominated northern temperate ecosystems to record winter warming

Northern temperate ecosystems are experiencing warmer and more variable winters, trends that are expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Despite this, most studies have focused on climate change impacts during the growing season, particularly when comparing responses across different vegetation cover types. Here we examined how a perennial grassland and adjacent mixed forest ecosystem in New Hampshire, United States, responded to a period of highly variable winters from 2014 through 2017 that included the warmest winter on record to date. In the grassland, record‐breaking temperatures in the winter of 2015/2016 led to a February onset of plant growth and the ecosystem became a sustained carbon sink well before winter ended, taking up roughly 90 g/m² more carbon during the winter to spring transition than in other recorded years. The forest was an unusually large carbon source during the same period. While forest photosynthesis was restricted by leaf‐out phenology, warm winter temperatures caused large pulses of ecosystem respiration that released nearly 230 g C/m² from February through April, more than double the carbon losses during that period in cooler years. These findings suggest that, as winters continue to warm, increases in ecosystem respiration outside the growing season could outpace increases in carbon uptake during a longer growing season, particularly in forests that depend on leaf‐out timing to initiate carbon uptake. In ecosystems with a perennial leaf habit, warming winter temperatures are more likely to increase ecosystem carbon uptake through extension of the active growing season. Our results highlight the importance of understanding relationships among antecedent winter conditions and carbon exchange across land‐cover types to understand how landscape carbon exchange will change under projected climate warming.     

Comparison of temperate and tropical rainforest tree species: photosynthetic responses to growth temperature

Little is known about the differences in physiology between temperate and tropical trees. Australian rainforests extend from tropical climates in the north to temperate climates in the south over a span of 33° latitude. Therefore, they provide an opportunity to investigate differences in the physiology of temperate and tropical trees within the same vegetation type. This study investigated how the response of net photosynthesis to growth temperature differed between Australian temperate and tropical rainforest trees and how this correlated with differences in their climates. The temperate species showed their maximum rate of net photosynthesis at lower growth temperatures than the tropical species. However, the temperate species showed at least 80% of maximum net photosynthesis over a 12-16°C span of growth temperature, compared with a span of 9-11°C shown by the tropical species. The tropical species showed both larger reductions in maximum net photosynthesis at low growth temperatures and larger reductions in the optimum instantaneous temperature for net photosynthesis with decreasing growth temperature than the temperate species. The ability of the temperate species to maintain maximum net photosynthesis over a greater span of growth temperatures than the tropical species is consistent with the greater seasonal and day-to-day variation in temperature of the temperate climate compared with the tropical climate.     

Plasticity in thermal tolerance has limited potential to buffer ectotherms from global warming

Global warming is increasing the overheating risk for many organisms, though the potential for plasticity in thermal tolerance to mitigate this risk is largely unknown. In part, this shortcoming stems from a lack of knowledge about global and taxonomic patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity. To address this critical issue, we test leading hypotheses for broad-scale variation in ectotherm tolerance plasticity using a dataset that includes vertebrate and invertebrate taxa from terrestrial, freshwater and marine habitats. Contrary to expectation, plasticity in heat tolerance was unrelated to latitude or thermal seasonality. However, plasticity in cold tolerance is associated with thermal seasonality in some habitat types. In addition, aquatic taxa have approximately twice the plasticity of terrestrial taxa. Based on the observed patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity, we propose that limited potential for behavioural plasticity (i.e. behavioural thermoregulation) favours the evolution of greater plasticity in physiological traits, consistent with the ‘Bogert effect’. Finally, we find that all ectotherms have relatively low acclimation in thermal tolerance and demonstrate that overheating risk will be minimally reduced by acclimation in even the most plastic groups. Our analysis indicates that behavioural and evolutionary mechanisms will be critical in allowing ectotherms to buffer themselves from extreme temperatures.