A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

The historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate – including short‐ and long‐term droughts – are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire‐related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem.     

Effects of altered temperature and precipitation on desert protozoa associated with biological soil crusts

Biological soil crusts are diverse assemblages of bacteria, cyanobacteria, algae, fungi, lichens, and mosses that cover much of arid land soils. The objective of this study was to quantify protozoa associated with biological soil crusts and test the response of protozoa to increased temperature and precipitation as is predicted by some global climate models. Protozoa were more abundant when associated with cyanobacteria/lichen crusts than with cyanobacteria crusts alone. Amoebae, flagellates, and ciliates originating from the Colorado Plateau desert (cool desert, primarily winter precipitation) declined 50-, 10-, and 100-fold, respectively, when moved in field mesocosms to the Chihuahuan Desert (hot desert, primarily summer rain). However, this was not observed in protozoa collected from the Chihuahuan Desert and moved to the Sonoran desert (hot desert, also summer rain, but warmer than Chihuahuan Desert). Protozoa in culture began to encyst at 37 degrees C. Cysts survived the upper end of daily temperatures (37-55 degrees C), and could be stimulated to excyst if temperatures were reduced to 15 degrees C or lower. Results from this study suggest that cool desert protozoa are influenced negatively by increased summer precipitation during excessive summer temperatures, and that desert protozoa may be adapted to a specific desert's temperature and precipitation regime.     

Physiological responses of two contrasting desert plant species to precipitation variability are differentially regulated by soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics

Alterations in global and regional precipitation patterns are expected to affect plant and ecosystem productivity, especially in water‐limited ecosystems. This study examined the effects of natural and supplemental (25% increase) seasonal precipitation on a sotol grassland ecosystem in Big Bend National Park in the Chihuahuan Desert. Physiological responses – leaf photosynthesis at saturating light (A_sat), stomatal conductance (g_s), and leaf nitrogen [N] – of two species differing in their life form and physiological strategies (Dasylirion leiophyllum, a C₃ shrub; Bouteloua curtipendula, a C₄ grass) were measured over 3 years (2004–2006) that differed greatly in their annual and seasonal precipitation patterns (2004: wet, 2005: average, 2006: dry). Precipitation inputs are likely to affect leaf‐level physiology through the direct effects of altered soil water and soil nitrogen. Thus, the effects of precipitation, watering treatment, soil moisture, and nitrogen were quantified via multivariate hierarchical Bayesian models that explicitly linked the leaf and soil responses. The two species differed in their physiological responses to precipitation and were differentially controlled by soil water vs. soil nitrogen. In the relatively deeply rooted C₃ shrub, D. leiophyllum, A_sat was highest in moist periods and was primarily regulated by deep (16–30 cm) soil water. In the shallow‐rooted C₄ grass, B. curtipendula, A_sat was only coupled to leaf [N], both of which increased in dry periods when soil [N] was highest. Supplemental watering during the wet year generally decreased A_sat and leaf [N] in D. leiophyllum, perhaps due to nutrient limitation, and physiological responses in this species were influenced by the cumulative effects of 5 years of supplemental watering. Both species are common in this ecosystem and responded strongly, yet differently, to soil moisture and nitrogen, suggesting that changes in the timing and magnitude of precipitation may have consequences for plant carbon gain, with the potential to alter community composition.     

In transition: Avian biogeographic responses to a century of climate change across desert biomes

Transition zones between biomes, also known as ecotones, are areas of pronounced ecological change. They are primarily maintained by abiotic factors and disturbance regimes that could hinder or promote species range shifts in response to climate change. We evaluated how climate change has affected metacommunity dynamics in two adjacent biomes and across their ecotone by resurveying 106 sites that were originally surveyed for avian diversity in the early 20th century by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues. The Mojave, a warm desert, and the Great Basin, a cold desert, have distinct assemblages and meet along a contiguous, east–west boundary. Both deserts substantially warmed over the past century, but the Mojave dried while the Great Basin became wetter. We examined whether the distinctiveness and composition of desert avifaunas have changed, if species distributions shifted, and how the transition zone impacted turnover patterns. Avifauna change was characterized by (a) reduced occupancy, range contractions, and idiosyncratic species redistributions; (b) degradation of historic community structure, and increased taxonomic and climatic differentiation of the species inhabiting the two deserts; and (c) high levels of turnover at the transition zone but little range expansion of species from the warm, dry Mojave into the cooler, wetter Great Basin. Although both deserts now support more drier and warmer tolerant species, their bird communities still occupy distinct climatological space and differ significantly in climatic composition. Our results suggest a persistent transition zone between biomes contributes to limiting the redistribution of birds, and highlight the importance of understanding how transition zone dynamics impact responses to climate change.     

Differing climate and landscape effects on regional dryland vegetation responses during wet periods allude to future patterns

Dryland vegetation is influenced by biotic and abiotic land surface template (LST) conditions and precipitation (PPT), such that enhanced vegetation responses to periods of high PPT may be shaped by multiple factors. High PPT stochasticity in the Chihuahuan Desert suggests that enhanced responses across broad geographic areas are improbable. Yet, multiyear wet periods may homogenize PPT patterns, interact with favorable LST conditions, and in this way produce enhanced responses. In contrast, periods containing multiple extreme high PPT pulse events could overwhelm LST influences, suggesting a divergence in how climate change could influence vegetation by altering PPT periods. Using a suite of stacked remote sensing and LST datasets from the 1980s to the present, we evaluated PPT‐LST‐Vegetation relationships across this region and tested the hypothesis that enhanced vegetation responses would be initiated by high PPT, but that LST favorability would underlie response magnitude, producing geographic differences between wet periods. We focused on two multiyear wet periods; one of above average, regionally distributed PPT (1990–1993) and a second with locally distributed PPT that contained two extreme wet pulses (2006–2008). 1990–1993 had regional vegetation responses that were correlated with soil properties. 2006–2008 had higher vegetation responses over a smaller area that were correlated primarily with PPT and secondarily to soil properties. Within the overlapping PPT area of both periods, enhanced vegetation responses occurred in similar locations. Thus, LST favorability underlied the geographic pattern of vegetation responses, whereas PPT initiated the response and controlled response area and maximum response magnitude. Multiyear periods provide foresight on the differing impacts that directional changes in mean climate and changes in extreme PPT pulses could have in drylands. Our study shows that future vegetation responses during wet periods will be tied to LST favorability, yet will be shaped by the pattern and magnitude of multiyear PPT events.     

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

A cross‐site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2‐CC, MIROC5, and MRI‐CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET‐BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO₂ effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce‐fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO₂ effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change.     

Predominant role of water in regulating soil and microbial respiration and their responses to climate change in a semiarid grassland

Climate change can profoundly impact carbon (C) cycling of terrestrial ecosystems. A field experiment was conducted to examine responses of total soil and microbial respiration, and microbial biomass to experimental warming and increased precipitation in a semiarid temperate steppe in northern China since April 2005. We measured soil respiration twice a month over the growing seasons, soil microbial biomass C (MBC) and N (MBN), microbial respiration (MR) once a year in the middle growing season from 2005 to 2007. The results showed that interannual variations in soil respiration, MR, and microbial biomass were positively related to interannual fluctuations in precipitation. Laboratory incubation with a soil moisture gradient revealed a constraint of the temperature responses of MR by low soil moisture contents. Across the 3 years, experimental warming decreased soil moisture, and consequently caused significant reductions in total and microbial respiration, and microbial biomass, suggesting stronger negatively indirect effects through warming‐induced water stress than the positively direct effects of elevated temperature. Increased evapotranspiration under experimental warming could have reduced soil water availability below a stress threshold, thus leading to suppression of plant growth, root and microbial activities. Increased precipitation significantly stimulated total soil and microbial respiration and all other microbial parameters and the positive precipitation effects increased over time. Our results suggest that soil water availability is more important than temperature in regulating soil and microbial respiratory processes, microbial biomass and their responses to climate change in the semiarid temperate steppe. Experimental warming caused greater reductions in soil respiration than in gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). In contrast, increased precipitation stimulated GEP more than soil respiration. Our observations suggest that climate warming may cause net C losses, whereas increased precipitation may lead to net C gains in the semiarid temperate steppe. Our findings highlight that unless there is concurrent increase in precipitation, the temperate steppe in the arid and semiarid regions of northern China may act as a net C source under climate warming.     

Interspecific trait variability and local soil conditions modulate grassland model community responses to climate

Medium‐to‐high elevation grasslands provide critical services in agriculture and ecosystem stabilization, through high biodiversity and providing food for wildlife. However, these ecosystems face elevated risks of disruption due to predicted soil and climate changes. Separating the effects of soil and climate, however, is difficult in situ, with previous experiments focusing largely on monocultures instead of natural grassland communities. We experimentally exposed model grassland communities, comprised of three species grown on either local or reference soil, to varied climatic environments along an elevational gradient in the European Alps, measuring the effects on species and community traits. Although species‐specific biomass varied across soil and climate, species'' proportional contributions to community‐level biomass production remained consistent. Where species experienced low survivorship, species‐level biomass production was maintained through increased productivity of surviving individuals; however, maximum species‐level biomass was obtained under high survivorship. Species responded directionally to climatic variation, spatially separating differentially by plant traits (including height, reproduction, biomass, survival, leaf dry weight, and leaf area) consistently across all climates. Local soil variation drove stochastic trait responses across all species, with high levels of interactions occurring between site and species. This soil variability obscured climate‐driven responses: we recorded no directional trait responses for soil‐corrected traits like observed for climate‐corrected traits. Our species‐based approach contributes to our understanding of grassland community stabilization and suggests that these communities show some stability under climatic variation.     

Near‐future forest vulnerability to drought and fire varies across the western United States

Recent prolonged droughts and catastrophic wildfires in the western United States have raised concerns about the potential for forest mortality to impact forest structure, forest ecosystem services, and the economic vitality of communities in the coming decades. We used the Community Land Model (CLM) to determine forest vulnerability to mortality from drought and fire by the year 2049. We modified CLM to represent 13 major forest types in the western United States and ran simulations at a 4‐km grid resolution, driven with climate projections from two general circulation models under one emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). We developed metrics of vulnerability to short‐term extreme and prolonged drought based on annual allocation to stem growth and net primary productivity. We calculated fire vulnerability based on changes in simulated future area burned relative to historical area burned. Simulated historical drought vulnerability was medium to high in areas with observations of recent drought‐related mortality. Comparisons of observed and simulated historical area burned indicate simulated future fire vulnerability could be underestimated by 3% in the Sierra Nevada and overestimated by 3% in the Rocky Mountains. Projections show that water‐limited forests in the Rocky Mountains, Southwest, and Great Basin regions will be the most vulnerable to future drought‐related mortality, and vulnerability to future fire will be highest in the Sierra Nevada and portions of the Rocky Mountains. High carbon‐density forests in the Pacific coast and western Cascades regions are projected to be the least vulnerable to either drought or fire. Importantly, differences in climate projections lead to only 1% of the domain with conflicting low and high vulnerability to fire and no area with conflicting drought vulnerability. Our drought vulnerability metrics could be incorporated as probabilistic mortality rates in earth system models, enabling more robust estimates of the feedbacks between the land and atmosphere over the 21st century.     

Dispersal limitations increase vulnerability under climate change for reptiles and amphibians in the southwestern United States

Species conservation plans frequently rely on information that spans political and administrative boundaries, especially when predictions are needed of future habitat under climate change; however, most species conservation plans and their requisite predictions of future habitat are often limited in geographical scope. Moreover, dispersal constraints for species of concern are not often incorporated into distribution models, which can result in overly optimistic predictions of future habitat. We used a standard modeling approach across a suite of 23 taxa of amphibians and reptiles in the North American deserts (560,024 km² across 13 ecoregions) to assess impacts of climate change on habitat and combined landscape population dispersal simulations with species distribution modeling to reduce the risk of predicting future habitat in areas that are not available to species given their dispersal abilities. We used 3 general circulation models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to represent multiple scenarios of future habitat potential and assess which study species may be most vulnerable to changes forecasted under each climate scenario. Amphibians were the most vulnerable taxa, but the most vulnerable species tended to be those with the lowest dispersal ability rather than those with the most specialized niches. Under the most optimistic climate scenario considered (RCP 2.6; a stringent scenario requiring declining emissions from 2020 to near zero emissions by 2100), 76% of the study area may experience a loss of >20% of the species examined, while up to 87% of the species currently present may be lost in some areas under the most pessimistic climate scenario (RCP 8.5; a scenario wherein greenhouse gases continue to increase through 2100 based on trajectories from the mid-century). Most areas with high losses were concentrated in the Arizona and New Mexico Plateau ecoregion, the Edwards Plateau in Texas, and the Southwestern Tablelands in New Mexico and Texas, USA. Under the most pessimistic climate scenario, all species are predicted to lose some existing habitat, with an average of 34% loss of extant habitat across all species. Even under the most optimistic scenario, we detected an average loss of 24% of extant habitat across all species, suggesting that changing climates may influence the ranges of reptiles and amphibians in the Southwest.     

黄土区草地不同组分与土壤侵蚀关系及其对降雨情景的响应

随着气候变化黄土高原植被与坡面侵蚀关系面临更多复杂和极端降雨情景的挑战。以黄土丘陵区草地坡面为对象,选择3场当地典型降雨事件,研究植物冠层、枯落物和根系与土壤侵蚀的关系及其对不同降雨情景的响应规律。事件-Ⅰ为短历时、高强度和大雨量,事件-Ⅱ为中等历时、强度和雨量,事件-Ⅲ为长历时、低强度和小雨量,3场事件分别代表2015—2017年侵蚀性降雨事件聚类分析后的3种情景。从多年次降雨事件尺度来看,冠层主要作用于降低泥沙浓度,减少了48.20%的径流含沙量,占总贡献率的53.03%,并贡献了约1/3的减流和减沙效应;枯落物的减流效应最高,减少了28.43%的径流量,占总贡献率的50.75%,其减沙的相对贡献率仅为26.41%;根系的减沙效应最高,减少了36.33%的土壤流失量,占总贡献的37.95%,远高于其减流相对贡献率(15.58%)。说明草地植物对土壤侵蚀的作用机制受到冠层、枯落物和根系的影响,各组分越完整,减流减沙能力越高。单次事件分析表明,由事件-Ⅰ、事件-Ⅱ到事件-Ⅲ,冠层的减流率和减沙率均为负值(-77.97%至-0.91%),相对贡献呈逐渐减小趋势;而枯落物和根系的减流率和减...     

青藏高原气候变化与高寒草地

综述了近五十年来青藏高原气候和高寒草地的变化趋势,阐述了气候变化对高寒草地的可能影响。气候变化主要通过水、热过程及其诱导的环境变化对青藏高原高寒草地产生显著的影响。主要过程包括：气候变化对气候带、植被带、植物、植物群落、农业生产以及生态系统固碳潜力等的影响。从目前的观测和研究结果来看,有关青藏高原气候变化及其对高寒草地的可能影响都还很难得出一致的结论。因此,如何科学评价气候变化及其预测和评价对高寒草地结构和功能的潜在影响,以及如何将已经发生的变化纳入到全球变化模型或评价体系中,以便更加精确地评估气候变化的长期影响,将成为必须要回答的关键科学问题。     

Global climate change and soil carbon stocks; predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil

Enhanced release of CO₂ to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO₂ levels and accelerated global warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre's coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single‐pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated ‘RothC’ multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 Gt C by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 Gt C decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model.     

Adapting a patch model to simulate the sensitivity of Central-Canadian boreal ecosystems to climate variability

Aim To investigate effects of within-season and interannual climate variability on the behaviour of boreal forest ecosystems as simulated by the FORSKA2 patch model. Location Eleven climate station locations distributed along a transect across the boreal zone of central Canada. Methods FORSKA2′s water balance submodel was modified to enable it to behave more realistically under a varying climate. Long-term actual monthly time-series of temperature and precipitation data were detrended and used to drive the modified model. Long-term monthly averages of the same detrended data were used to drive the unmodified model. Results Modifications created significant improvements when simulating species composition at sites in boreal Canada. Simulated forest biomass values were slightly higher than those obtained from the unmodified model using averaged climate records, but resembled the observed distribution of vegetation more closely. Main conclusions Modified FORSKA2 suggests that boreal forest composition and distribution may be more sensitive to changes in monthly rainfall data than to changes in temperature. Climate variability affects seasonal water balances and should be considered when using patch models to forecast vegetation dynamics during and following a period of climate transition. The modified model provided improved representation of the latitudinal trend in spatially averaged biomass density in this region.     

黄土高原水土保持林对土壤水分的影响

黄土高原植被恢复的限制因素主要是土壤水分,植被与土壤水分关系的研究对黄土高原植被恢复具有重要意义.2008年7月1日至2009年10月31日间采用EnviroSMART土壤水分定位监测系统以每30min监测1次的频度,对晋西黄土区刺槐人工林地、油松人工林地、次生林地的土壤水分变化进行了研究.研究得出:次生林地0-150 cm土层中平均蓄水量为331.95mm,刺槐人工林地为233.85 mm,有整地措施的油松人工林地为314.85mm,刺槐人工林比次生林多消耗的98.10mm土壤水分主要来源于80 cm以下土层.次生林主要消耗0-80 cm土层的水分,而人工林不但对0-80 cm土层水分的消耗量大于次生林,对深层土壤的消耗也较次生林大,这将有可能导致人工林地深层土壤的“干化”.在土壤水分减少期(11-1月)刺槐人工林土壤水分的日均损耗量为0.86mm、油松人工林为0.82 mm、次生林为0.84 mm.土壤水分缓慢恢复期(2-5月)刺槐人工林地土壤水分的恢复速度0.90mm/d,油松人工林地为0.53 mm/d、次生林地为0.79 mm/d.土壤水分剧烈变化期(5-10月)刺槐人工林地土壤水分含量的极差为95.71mm,油松人工林地为179.1mm,次生林地为72.03mm.在干旱少雨的黄土高原进行植被恢复时,应多采取封山育林等方式,依靠自然力量形成能够与当地土壤水资源相协调的次生林,是防止人工植被过度耗水形成“干化层”、保障水土保持植被持续发挥生态服务功能的关键.     

Differential responses of production and respiration to temperature and moisture drive the carbon balance across a climatic gradient in New Mexico

Southwestern North America faces an imminent transition to a warmer, more arid climate, and it is critical to understand how these changes will affect the carbon balance of southwest ecosystems. In order to test our hypothesis that differential responses of production and respiration to temperature and moisture shape the carbon balance across a range of spatio‐temporal scales, we quantified net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO₂ and carbon storage across the New Mexico Elevational Gradient, which consists of six eddy‐covariance sites representing biomes ranging from desert to subalpine conifer forest. Within sites, hotter and drier conditions were associated with an increasing advantage of respiration relative to production such that daily carbon uptake peaked at intermediate temperatures – with carbon release often occurring on the hottest days – and increased with soil moisture. Across sites, biotic adaptations modified but did not override the dominant effects of climate. Carbon uptake increased with decreasing temperature and increasing precipitation across the elevational gradient; NEE ranged from a source of ～30 g C m^?2 yr^?1 in the desert grassland to a sink of ～350 g C m^?2 yr^?1 in the subalpine conifer forest. Total aboveground carbon storage increased dramatically with elevation, ranging from 186 g C m^?2 in the desert grassland to 26 600 g C m^?2 in the subalpine conifer forest. These results make sense in the context of global patterns in NEE and biomass storage, and support that increasing temperature and decreasing moisture shift the carbon balance of ecosystems in favor of respiration, such that the potential for ecosystems to sequester and store carbon is reduced under hot and/or dry conditions. This implies that projected climate change will trigger a substantial net release of carbon in these New Mexico ecosystems (～3 Gt CO₂ statewide by the end of the century), thereby acting as a positive feedback to climate change.     

Dissimilar responses of fungal and bacterial communities to soil transplantation simulating abrupt climate changes

Both fungi and bacteria play essential roles in regulating soil carbon cycling. To predict future carbon stability, it is imperative to understand their responses to environmental changes, which is subject to large uncertainty. As current global warming is causing range shifts toward higher latitudes, we conducted three reciprocal soil transplantation experiments over large transects in 2005 to simulate abrupt climate changes. Six years after soil transplantation, fungal biomass of transplanted soils showed a general pattern of changes from donor sites to destination, which were more obvious in bare fallow soils than in maize cropped soils. Strikingly, fungal community compositions were clustered by sites, demonstrating that fungi of transplanted soils acclimatized to the destination environment. Several fungal taxa displayed sharp changes in relative abundance, including Podospora, Chaetomium, Mortierella and Phialemonium. In contrast, bacterial communities remained largely unchanged. Consistent with the important role of fungi in affecting soil carbon cycling, 8.1%–10.0% of fungal genes encoding carbon‐decomposing enzymes were significantly (p < 0.01) increased as compared with those from bacteria (5.7%–8.4%). To explain these observations, we found that fungal occupancy across samples was mainly determined by annual average air temperature and rainfall, whereas bacterial occupancy was more closely related to soil conditions, which remained stable 6 years after soil transplantation. Together, these results demonstrate dissimilar response patterns and resource partitioning between fungi and bacteria, which may have considerable consequences for ecosystem‐scale carbon cycling.     

Regeneration of planted conifers across climatic moisture gradients on the Canadian prairies: implications for distribution and climate change

The influence of dry climates on white spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss)) regeneration was examined by conducting surveys of seedlings and small trees that had regenerated naturally at 100 farm shelterbelts and plantations in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The sites surveyed were located along a climate moisture gradient extending from the relatively moist boreal forest, across the aspen parkland, to the semi-arid prairie grasslands. Natural regeneration was greatest at sites in the boreal forest and northern aspen parkland, decreased in the southern aspen parkland, and was negligible in the grassland zone. Furthermore, the few seedlings found in the drier zones were usually in poor condition. Similar results were obtained for the introduced Colorado spruce ( Picea pungens Engelm.) and Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.). It is concluded that the present climate of the southern parkland and grassland is too dry to permit natural regeneration of white spruce and other conifers. If increases in atmospheric CO₂ levels lead to a drier future climate in the southern boreal forest of western Canada, the ability of conifers to regenerate naturally may be significantly reduced.     

The sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature,moisture, and carbon supply at the global scale

Soil respiration (Rs) is a major pathway by which fixed carbon in the biosphere is returned to the atmosphere, yet there are limits to our ability to predict respiration rates using environmental drivers at the global scale. While temperature, moisture, carbon supply, and other site characteristics are known to regulate soil respiration rates at plot scales within certain biomes, quantitative frameworks for evaluating the relative importance of these factors across different biomes and at the global scale require tests of the relationships between field estimates and global climatic data. This study evaluates the factors driving Rs at the global scale by linking global datasets of soil moisture, soil temperature, primary productivity, and soil carbon estimates with observations of annual Rs from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB). We find that calibrating models with parabolic soil moisture functions can improve predictive power over similar models with asymptotic functions of mean annual precipitation. Soil temperature is comparable with previously reported air temperature observations used in predicting Rs and is the dominant driver of Rs in global models; however, within certain biomes soil moisture and soil carbon emerge as dominant predictors of Rs. We identify regions where typical temperature‐driven responses are further mediated by soil moisture, precipitation, and carbon supply and regions in which environmental controls on high Rs values are difficult to ascertain due to limited field data. Because soil moisture integrates temperature and precipitation dynamics, it can more directly constrain the heterotrophic component of Rs, but global‐scale models tend to smooth its spatial heterogeneity by aggregating factors that increase moisture variability within and across biomes. We compare statistical and mechanistic models that provide independent estimates of global Rs ranging from 83 to 108 Pg yr^?1, but also highlight regions of uncertainty where more observations are required or environmental controls are hard to constrain.