Bias in the prediction of genetic gain due to mass and half-sib selection in random mating populations

The prediction of gains from selection allows the comparison of breeding methods and selection strategies, although these estimates may be biased. The objective of this study was to investigate the extent of such bias in predicting genetic gain. For this, we simulated 10 cycles of a hypothetical breeding program that involved seven traits, three population classes, three experimental conditions and two breeding methods (mass and half-sib selection). Each combination of trait, population, heritability, method and cycle was repeated 10 times. The predicted gains were biased, even when the genetic parameters were estimated without error. Gain from selection in both genders is twice the gain from selection in a single gender only in the absence of dominance. The use of genotypic variance or broad sense heritability in the predictions represented an additional source of bias. Predictions based on additive variance and narrow sense heritability were equivalent, as were predictions based on genotypic variance and broad sense heritability. The predictions based on mass and family selection were suitable for comparing selection strategies, whereas those based on selection within progenies showed the largest bias and lower association with the realized gain.     

Genomic selection of purebred animals for crossbred performance in the presence of dominant gene action

Background

Genomic selection is an appealing method to select purebreds for crossbred performance. In the case of crossbred records, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) effects can be estimated using an additive model or a breed-specific allele model. In most studies, additive gene action is assumed. However, dominance is the likely genetic basis of heterosis. Advantages of incorporating dominance in genomic selection were investigated in a two-way crossbreeding program for a trait with different magnitudes of dominance. Training was carried out only once in the simulation.

Results

When the dominance variance and heterosis were large and overdominance was present, a dominance model including both additive and dominance SNP effects gave substantially greater cumulative response to selection than the additive model. Extra response was the result of an increase in heterosis but at a cost of reduced purebred performance. When the dominance variance and heterosis were realistic but with overdominance, the advantage of the dominance model decreased but was still significant. When overdominance was absent, the dominance model was slightly favored over the additive model, but the difference in response between the models increased as the number of quantitative trait loci increased. This reveals the importance of exploiting dominance even in the absence of overdominance. When there was no dominance, response to selection for the dominance model was as high as for the additive model, indicating robustness of the dominance model. The breed-specific allele model was inferior to the dominance model in all cases and to the additive model except when the dominance variance and heterosis were large and with overdominance. However, the advantage of the dominance model over the breed-specific allele model may decrease as differences in linkage disequilibrium between the breeds increase. Retraining is expected to reduce the advantage of the dominance model over the alternatives, because in general, the advantage becomes important only after five or six generations post-training.

Conclusion

Under dominance and without retraining, genomic selection based on the dominance model is superior to the additive model and the breed-specific allele model to maximize crossbred performance through purebred selection.     

Efficiency of including first-generation information in second-generation ranking and selection: results of computer simulation

Using computer simulation, we evaluated the impact of using first-generation information to increase selection efficiency in a second-generation breeding program. Selection efficiency was compared in terms of increase in rank correlation between estimated and true breeding values (i.e., ranking accuracy), reduction in coefficient of variation of correlation coefficients (i.e., ranking reliability), and increase in realized gain, with best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). The test populations were generated with varying parameters: selection strategy (forward vs backward selection of parents); number of parents (24∼96); number of crosses per parent (1∼8); heritability (0.05∼0.35); ratio of dominance to additive variance (0∼3); ratio of additive-by-site to additive variance (0∼3); and ratio of dominance-by-site to additive variance (0∼3). The two selection strategies gave distinct results. When parents of the second-generation crosses had been selected via backward selection, adding first-generation information markedly increased selection efficiency. Conversely, when parents had been selected via forward selection, first-generation information provided little increase in efficiency. The amount of increase depended more on heritabilities in both generations and less on dominance and genotype–by–environment effects. Including first-generation information helped more when there were many parents and few crosses per parent in the second generation. Only in the case of extremely low first-generation heritabilities was there no benefit to adding first-generation information in terms of improved ranking reliability and accuracy.     

Genomic analysis of dominance effects on milk production and conformation traits in Fleckvieh cattle

Background

Estimates of dominance variance in dairy cattle based on pedigree data vary considerably across traits and amount to up to 50% of the total genetic variance for conformation traits and up to 43% for milk production traits. Using bovine SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) genotypes, dominance variance can be estimated both at the marker level and at the animal level using genomic dominance effect relationship matrices. Yield deviations of high-density genotyped Fleckvieh cows were used to assess cross-validation accuracy of genomic predictions with additive and dominance models. The potential use of dominance variance in planned matings was also investigated.

Results

Variance components of nine milk production and conformation traits were estimated with additive and dominance models using yield deviations of 1996 Fleckvieh cows and ranged from 3.3% to 50.5% of the total genetic variance. REML and Gibbs sampling estimates showed good concordance. Although standard errors of estimates of dominance variance were rather large, estimates of dominance variance for milk, fat and protein yields, somatic cell score and milkability were significantly different from 0. Cross-validation accuracy of predicted breeding values was higher with genomic models than with the pedigree model. Inclusion of dominance effects did not increase the accuracy of the predicted breeding and total genetic values. Additive and dominance SNP effects for milk yield and protein yield were estimated with a BLUP (best linear unbiased prediction) model and used to calculate expectations of breeding values and total genetic values for putative offspring. Selection on total genetic value instead of breeding value would result in a larger expected total genetic superiority in progeny, i.e. 14.8% for milk yield and 27.8% for protein yield and reduce the expected additive genetic gain only by 4.5% for milk yield and 2.6% for protein yield.

Conclusions

Estimated dominance variance was substantial for most of the analyzed traits. Due to small dominance effect relationships between cows, predictions of individual dominance deviations were very inaccurate and including dominance in the model did not improve prediction accuracy in the cross-validation study. Exploitation of dominance variance in assortative matings was promising and did not appear to severely compromise additive genetic gain.     

The consequences of including non-additive effects on the genetic evaluation of harvest body weight in Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

Background

In this study, we used different animal models to estimate genetic and environmental variance components on harvest weight in two populations of Oncorhynchus kisutch, forming two classes i.e. odd- and even-year spawners.

Methods

The models used were: additive, with and without inbreeding as a covariable (A + F and A respectively); additive plus common environmental due to full-sib families and inbreeding (A + C + F); additive plus parental dominance and inbreeding (A + D + F); and a full model (A + C + D + F). Genetic parameters and breeding values obtained by different models were compared to evaluate the consequences of including non-additive effects on genetic evaluation.

Results

Including inbreeding as a covariable did not affect the estimation of genetic parameters, but heritability was reduced when dominance or common environmental effects were included. A high heritability for harvest weight was estimated in both populations (even = 0.46 and odd = 0.50) when simple additive models (A + F and A) were used. Heritabilities decreased to 0.21 (even) and 0.37 (odd) when the full model was used (A + C + D + F). In this full model, the magnitude of the dominance variance was 0.19 (even) and 0.06 (odd), while the magnitude of the common environmental effect was lower than 0.01 in both populations. The correlation between breeding values estimated with different models was very high in all cases (i.e. higher than 0.98). However, ranking of the 30 best males and the 100 best females per generation changed when a high dominance variance was estimated, as was the case in one of the two populations (even).

Conclusions

Dominance and common environmental variance may be important components of variance in harvest weight in O. kisutch, thus not including them may produce an overestimation of the predicted response; furthermore, genetic evaluation was seen to be partially affected, since the ranking of selected animals changed with the inclusion of non-additive effects in the animal model.     

Effective sizes of livestock populations to prevent a decline in fitness

In livestock populations, fitness may decrease due to inbreeding depression or as a negatively correlated response to artificial selection. On the other hand, fitness may increase due to natural selection. In the absence of a correlated response due to artificial selection, the critical population size at which the increase due to natural selection and the decrease due to inbreeding depression balance each other is approximately D/2_wa ², where D=the inbreeding depression of fitness with complete inbreeding, and _wa ²=the additive genetic variance of fitness. This simple expression agrees well with results from transmission probability matrix methods. If fitness declines as a correlated negative response to artificial selection, then a large increase in the critical effective population size is needed. However, if the negative response is larger than the response to natural selection, a reduction in fitness cannot be prevented. From these results it is concluded that a negative correlation between artificial and natural selection should be avoided. Effective sizes to prevent a decline in fitness are usually larger than those which maximize genetic gain of overall efficiency, i.e., the former is a more stringent restriction on effective size. In the examples presented, effective sizes ranged from 31 to 250 animals per generation.     

Genetic and environmental heterogeneity of residual variance of weight traits in Nellore beef cattle

Background

Many studies have provided evidence of the existence of genetic heterogeneity of environmental variance, suggesting that it could be exploited to improve robustness and uniformity of livestock by selection. However, little is known about the perspectives of such a selection strategy in beef cattle.

Methods

A two-step approach was applied to study the genetic heterogeneity of residual variance of weight gain from birth to weaning and long-yearling weight in a Nellore beef cattle population. First, an animal model was fitted to the data and second, the influence of additive and environmental effects on the residual variance of these traits was investigated with different models, in which the log squared estimated residuals for each phenotypic record were analyzed using the restricted maximum likelihood method. Monte Carlo simulation was performed to assess the reliability of variance component estimates from the second step and the accuracy of estimated breeding values for residual variation.

Results

The results suggest that both genetic and environmental factors have an effect on the residual variance of weight gain from birth to weaning and long-yearling in Nellore beef cattle and that uniformity of these traits could be improved by selecting for lower residual variance, when considering a large amount of information to predict genetic merit for this criterion. Simulations suggested that using the two-step approach would lead to biased estimates of variance components, such that more adequate methods are needed to study the genetic heterogeneity of residual variance in beef cattle.     

Local Adaptation and Genetics of Acid-Stress Tolerance in the Moor Frog, Rana arvalis

As potential to adapt to environmental stress can be essential for population persistence, knowledge on the genetic architecture of local adaptation is important for conservation genetics. We investigated the relative importance of additive genetic, dominance and maternal effects contributions to acid stress tolerance in two moor frog (Rana arvalis) populations originating from low and neutral pH habitats. Experiments with crosses obtained from artificial matings revealed that embryos from the acid origin population were more tolerant to low pH than embryos from the neutral origin population in embryonic survival rates, but not in terms of developmental stability, developmental and growth rates. Strong maternal effect and small additive genetic contributions to variation were detected in all traits in both populations. In general, dominance contributions to variance in different traits were of similar magnitude to the additive genetic effects, but dominance effects outweighed the additive genetic and maternal effects contributions to early growth in both populations. Furthermore, the expression of additive genetic variance was independent of pH treatment, suggesting little additive genetic variation in acid stress tolerance. The results suggest that although local genetic adaptation to acid stress has taken place, the current variation in acid stress tolerance in acidified populations may owe largely to non-genetic effects. However, low but significant heritabilities (h ² 0.07–0.22) in all traits – including viability itself – under a wide range of pH conditions suggests that environmental stress created by low pH is unlikely to lower moor frog populations' ability to respond to selection in the traits studied. Nevertheless, acid conditions could lower populations' ability to respond to selection in the long run through reduction in effective population size.     

QTLs associated with dry matter intake,metabolic mid-test weight,growth and feed efficiency have little overlap across 4 beef cattle studies

Background

The identification of genetic markers associated with complex traits that are expensive to record such as feed intake or feed efficiency would allow these traits to be included in selection programs. To identify large-effect QTL, we performed a series of genome-wide association studies and functional analyses using 50 K and 770 K SNP genotypes scored in 5,133 animals from 4 independent beef cattle populations (Cycle VII, Angus, Hereford and Simmental × Angus) with phenotypes for average daily gain, dry matter intake, metabolic mid-test body weight and residual feed intake.

Results

A total of 5, 6, 11 and 10 significant QTL (defined as 1-Mb genome windows with Bonferroni-corrected P-value <0.05) were identified for average daily gain, dry matter intake, metabolic mid-test body weight and residual feed intake, respectively. The identified QTL were population-specific and had little overlap across the 4 populations. The pleiotropic or closely linked QTL on BTA 7 at 23 Mb identified in the Angus population harbours a promising candidate gene ACSL6 (acyl-CoA synthetase long-chain family member 6), and was the largest effect QTL associated with dry matter intake and mid-test body weight explaining 10.39% and 14.25% of the additive genetic variance, respectively. Pleiotropic or closely linked QTL associated with average daily gain and mid-test body weight were detected on BTA 6 at 38 Mb and BTA 7 at 93 Mb confirming previous reports. No QTL for residual feed intake explained more than 2.5% of the additive genetic variance in any population. Marker-based estimates of heritability ranged from 0.21 to 0.49 for residual feed intake across the 4 populations.

Conclusions

This GWAS study, which is the largest performed for feed efficiency and its component traits in beef cattle to date, identified several large-effect QTL that cumulatively explained a significant percentage of additive genetic variance within each population. Differences in the QTL identified among the different populations may be due to differences in power to detect QTL, environmental variation, or differences in the genetic architecture of trait variation among breeds. These results enhance our understanding of the biology of growth, feed intake and utilisation in beef cattle.     

COMPARING STRENGTHS OF DIRECTIONAL SELECTION: HOW STRONG IS STRONG?

The fundamental equation in evolutionary quantitative genetics, the Lande equation, describes the response to directional selection as a product of the additive genetic variance and the selection gradient of trait value on relative fitness. Comparisons of both genetic variances and selection gradients across traits or populations require standardization, as both are scale dependent. The Lande equation can be standardized in two ways. Standardizing by the variance of the selected trait yields the response in units of standard deviation as the product of the heritability and the variance-standardized selection gradient. This standardization conflates selection and variation because the phenotypic variance is a function of the genetic variance. Alternatively, one can standardize the Lande equation using the trait mean, yielding the proportional response to selection as the product of the squared coefficient of additive genetic variance and the mean-standardized selection gradient. Mean-standardized selection gradients are particularly useful for summarizing the strength of selection because the mean-standardized gradient for fitness itself is one, a convenient benchmark for strong selection. We review published estimates of directional selection in natural populations using mean-standardized selection gradients. Only 38 published studies provided all the necessary information for calculation of mean-standardized gradients. The median absolute value of multivariate mean-standardized gradients shows that selection is on average 54% as strong as selection on fitness. Correcting for the upward bias introduced by taking absolute values lowers the median to 31%, still very strong selection. Such large estimates clearly cannot be representative of selection on all traits. Some possible sources of overestimation of the strength of selection include confounding environmental and genotypic effects on fitness, the use of fitness components as proxies for fitness, and biases in publication or choice of traits to study.     

Estimates of marker-associated QTL effects in Monte Carlo backcross generations using multiple regression

Summary The decision of whether or not to use QTLassociated markers in breeding programs needs further information about the magnitude of the additive and dominance effects that can be estimated. The objectives of this paper are (1) to apply some of the Moreno-Gonzalez (1993) genetic models to backcross simulation data generated by the Monte Carlo method, and (2) to get simulation information about the number of testing progenies and mapping density in relation to the magnitude of gene effect estimates. Results of the Monte Carlo study show that the stepwise regression analysis was able to detect relatively small additive and dominance effects when the QTL are independently segregating. When testing selfed families derived from backcross individuals, dominance effects had a larger error standard deviation and were estimated at a lower frequency. Linked QTL require a higher marker mapping density on the genome and a larger number of progenies to detect small genetic effects. Reduction of the environmental error variance by evaluating selfed backcross families in replicate experiments increased the power of the test. Expressions of the number of progenies for detecting significant additive effects were developed for some genetic situations. The ratio of the within-backcross genetic variance to the square of a gene effect estimate is a function of the number of progenies, the heritability of the trait, the marker map density and the portion of the genetic variance explained by the model. Different values (from 0 to 1) assigned to (relative position of the QTL in the marker segment) did not cause a large shift in the residual mean square of the model.     

Combined genetic analysis of partial blast resistance in an upland rice population and recurrent selection for line and hybrid values

The CNA-IRAT 5 upland rice population has been improved for 4 years by recurrent selection for blast resistance in Brazil. In order to predict the efficiency of recurrent selection in different test systems and to compare the relative advantage of hybrids versus pure line breeding, a combined genetic analysis of partial blast resistance in the CNA-IRAT 5 population was undertaken. A three-level hierarchical design in inbreeding and a factorial design were derived from the base population. Partial blast resistance of lines and hybrids was evaluated in the greenhouse and in the field by inoculation with one virulent blast isolate. The means and genetic variances of the hybrids and lines were estimated. Genetic advance by recurrent selection was predicted from estimates of variance components. The inheritance of partial blast resistance was mainly additive but non-additive effects were detected at both levels of means and variances. Mean heterosis ranged from 4%–8% for lesion size and lesion density to 10–12% for leaf and panicle resistance. High dominance or homozygous dominance variances relative to additive variance and negative covariance between additive and homozygous dominance effects were estimated. A low frequency of favourable alleles for partial resistance would explain the observed organisation of genetic variability in the base population. Recurrent selection will efficiently improve partial blast resistance of the CNA-IRAT 5 population. Genetic advance for line or hybrid values was expected to be higher testing doubled haploid lines than S1 lines, or than general combining ability. Two components of partial resistance assessed in the greenhouse, lesion size and lesion density, could be used as indirect selection criteria to improve field resistance. On the whole, hybrid breeding for partial blast resistance appeared to be slightly more advantageous than pure line breeding.     

Genetic correlation and response to selection in simulated populations

Summary One of two quantitative traits was selected and correlated response in the other trait was measured in each of 30 generations for models of additive genes and of complete dominance. Each trait was controlled by 48 loci with equal effects, segregating independently from frequencies of 0.5 in the initial generation. Intensity of selection regulated the number of offspring from randomly mating 24 males and 24 females each generation. Three each of genetic correlations between traits, intensities of selection, and amounts of environmental variation were simulated.In the additive model correlated responses of the unselected trait to selection of the primary trait agreed closely with responses expected from theoretical considerations. In the model of complete dominance, responses of genotypic means of the unselected trait to selection of the primary trait in opposite directions were quite symmetrical for the first few generations but became distinctly asymmetrical in later generations. With little selection, response was fairly linear but became distinctly curvilinear as intensity of selection increased and environmental variance decreased. Between 15th and 30th generations some gains in the correlated trait to the 15th generation were lost.Michigan Agricultural Experiment Station Journal Article 4847. Part of North Central Regional Project NC-2.     

Selection with Partial Selfing. I. Mass Selection

The expected responses to mass selection carried out before or after reproduction in a population whose members all have a fixed probability of self pollination (s) are formulated using covariances of relatives and their component quadratic functions for a model with arbitrary additive and dominance effects. The response measured in the first generation offspring after selection (immediate gain) can differ from that retained when the population has regained equilibrium (permanent gain). The population mean behaves in a predictable manner during the return to equilibrium, and its value at any time can be predicted from earlier generations. The permanent gain from selection after reproduction is always (1 + s)/2 times as large as that from selection before reproduction, but the relationship of the immediate gains depends on the genetic model assumed. Numerical analysis applied to a model with two alleles per locus and varying allele frequencies, dominance ratios and numbers of loci showed that the proportion of the immediate gain retained at equilibrium was reduced with the large inbreeding depression associated with increasing dominance levels and numbers of loci and was generally lower for selection after reproduction than before. In the absence of information as to the magnitude of genetic variances and inbreeding depression in species reproducing by partial selfing, the importance of this phenomenon is unknown.     

Efficiency of direct selection on quantitative trait loci for a two-trait breeding objective

Selection on known loci affecting quantitative traits (DSQ) was compared to phenotypic selection index for a single and a two-trait selection objective. Two situations were simulated; a single known quantitative locus, and ten identified loci accounting for all the additive genetic variance. Selection efficiency of DSQ relative to traitbased selection was higher for two-trait selection, than was selection on a single trait with the same heritability. The advantage of DSQ was greater when the traits were negatively correlated. Relative selection efficiency (RSE) for a single locus responsible for 0.1 of the genetic variance was 1.11 with heritabilities of 0.45 and 0.2 and zero genetic and phenotypic correlations between the traits. RSE of DSQ for ten known loci was 1.5 to 1.8 in the first 3 generations of selection, but declined in each subsequent generation. With DSQ most loci reached fixation after 7 generations. Response to trait-based selection continued through generation 15 and approached the response obtained with DSQ after 10 generations. The cumulative genetic response after 10 generations of DSQ was only 93% to 97% of the economically optimum genotype because the less favorable allele reached fixation for some loci, generally those with effects in opposite directions on the two traits.     

Non-additive genetic variation in growth,carcass and fertility traits of beef cattle

Background

A better understanding of non-additive variance could lead to increased knowledge on the genetic control and physiology of quantitative traits, and to improved prediction of the genetic value and phenotype of individuals. Genome-wide panels of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been mainly used to map additive effects for quantitative traits, but they can also be used to investigate non-additive effects. We estimated dominance and epistatic effects of SNPs on various traits in beef cattle and the variance explained by dominance, and quantified the increase in accuracy of phenotype prediction by including dominance deviations in its estimation.

Methods

Genotype data (729 068 real or imputed SNPs) and phenotypes on up to 16 traits of 10 191 individuals from Bos taurus, Bos indicus and composite breeds were used. A genome-wide association study was performed by fitting the additive and dominance effects of single SNPs. The dominance variance was estimated by fitting a dominance relationship matrix constructed from the 729 068 SNPs. The accuracy of predicted phenotypic values was evaluated by best linear unbiased prediction using the additive and dominance relationship matrices. Epistatic interactions (additive × additive) were tested between each of the 28 SNPs that are known to have additive effects on multiple traits, and each of the other remaining 729 067 SNPs.

Results

The number of significant dominance effects was greater than expected by chance and most of them were in the direction that is presumed to increase fitness and in the opposite direction to inbreeding depression. Estimates of dominance variance explained by SNPs varied widely between traits, but had large standard errors. The median dominance variance across the 16 traits was equal to 5% of the phenotypic variance. Including a dominance deviation in the prediction did not significantly increase its accuracy for any of the phenotypes. The number of additive × additive epistatic effects that were statistically significant was greater than expected by chance.

Conclusions

Significant dominance and epistatic effects occur for growth, carcass and fertility traits in beef cattle but they are difficult to estimate precisely and including them in phenotype prediction does not increase its accuracy.     

Natural selection on the genetical component of variance in body condition in a wild bird population

Although there is substantial evidence that skeletal measures of body size are heritable in wild animal populations, it is frequently assumed that the nonskeletal component of body weight (or ‘condition’) is determined primarily by environmental factors, in particular nutritional state. We tested this assumption by quantifying the genetic and environmental components of variance in fledgling body condition index (=relative body weight) in a natural population of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis), and compared the strength of natural selection on individual breeding values with that on phenotypic values. A mixed model analysis of the components of variance, based on an ‘animal model’ and using 18 years of data on 17 717 nestlings, revealed a significant additive genetic component of variance in body condition, which corresponded to a narrow sense heritability (h²) of 0.30 (SE=0.03). Nongenetic contributions to variation in body condition were large, but there was no evidence of dominance variance nor of contributions from early maternal or common environment effects (pre‐manipulation environment) in condition at fledging. Comparison of pre‐ and post‐selection samples revealed virtually identical h² of body condition index, despite the fact that there was a significant decrease (35%) in the levels of additive genetic variance from fledging to breeding. The similar h² in the two samples occurred because the environmental component of variance was also reduced by selection, suggesting that natural selection was acting on both genotypic and environmental variation. The effects of selection on genetic variance were confirmed by calculation of the selection differentials for both phenotypic values and best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) estimates of breeding values: there was positive directional selection on condition index both at the phenotypic and the genotypic level. The significant h² of body condition index is consistent with data from human and rodent populations showing significant additive genetic variance in relative body mass and adiposity, but contrasts with the common assumption in ecology that body condition reflects an individual’s nongenetic nutritional state. Furthermore, the substantial reduction in the additive genetic component of variance in body condition index suggests that selection on environmental deviations cannot alone explain the maintenance of additive genetic variation in heritable traits, but that other mechanisms are needed to explain the moderate to high heritabilities of traits under consistent and strong directional selection.     

性状遗传力与QTL方差对标记辅助选择效果的影响

在采用动物模型标记辅助最佳线性无偏预测方法对个体育种值进行估计的基础上,模拟了在一个闭锁群体内连续对单个性状选择10个世代的情形,并系统地比较了性状遗传力和QTL方差对标记辅助选择所获得的遗传进展、QTL增效基因频率和群体近交系数变化的影响。结果表明：在对高遗传力和QTL方差较小的性状实施标记辅助选择时,可望获得更大的遗传进展;遗传力越高,QTL方差越大,则QTL增效基因频率的上升速度越快;遗传力较高时,群体近交系数上升的速度较为缓慢,而QTL方差对群体近交系数上升速度的影响则不甚明显。结合前人关于标记辅助选择相对效率的研究结果,可以认为：当选择性状的遗传力和QTL方差为中等水平时,标记辅助选择可望获得理想的效果。     

Effects of random and non-random errors on phenotypic selection in autotetraploids

Summary A theoretical investigation was made to ascertain the effects of random and non-random deviations, called errors, of phenotypic from genotypic values on population means and on the response to phenotypic recurrent selection. The study was motivated as a selection experiment for disease resistance where there was either variability in the inoculation or environment (the random errors) or where the inoculation was above or below the the optimum rate where genetic differences in resistance are maximized (the non-random errors). The study was limited to the genetics at a diallelic locus (alleles B and b) in an autotetraploid population in random mating equilibrium. The response to selection was measured as the covariance of selection and compared to the exact covariance which was the covariance of selection without errors in phenotype. The random errors were modeled by assuming that a given percentage () of the population was uniformly distributed among the five possible genotype classes independent of their true genotypes. This model was analyzed numerically for a theoretical population with the frequency of the B allele (p) ranging from 0.0 to 1.0 and assumed errors of=0.1 and 0.5 for the following six types of genic action of the B allele: additive, monoplex dominance, partial monoplex dominance, duplex dominance, partial duplex dominance, and recessive. The effect of random error was to consistently reduce the response to selection by a percentage independent of the type of genic action at the locus. The effect on the population mean was an upward bias when p was low and a downward bias when p approached unity. In the non-random error model below optimum inoculations altered the phenotypes by systematically including percentage of susceptible genotypes into one or more other genotype classes with more genetic resistance (a positive shift). With above optimum inoculations, some resistant genotypes are classed with the non-resistant genotypes (a negative shift). The effects on the covariance of selection were found by numerical analysis for the same types of genic action and's as investigated for random error. With a negative shift and a low p, the covariance of selection was always reduced, but for an increasing p the covariance approached and exceeded the exact covariance for all types of genic action except additive. With a positive shift and a low p, response to selection was greatly improved for three types of genic action: duplex dominance, partial duplex dominance, and recessive. The effect of a non-random error on population means was to greatly bias the means upwards for a low p and positive shift, but with increasing p the bias decreased. A relatively slight decrease in the mean occurred with a negative shift. This study indicated check varieties commonly used to monitor selection pressures in screening programs are very responsive to positive non-random shifts, but are relatively unresponsive to negative shifts. The interaction of selection pressure, types of genic action, and genotypes in the class shift models was suggested as a partial explanation for the lack of response to increasing selection pressures observed in some breeding programs.Cooperative investigations of the Alfalfa Production Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, and the Nevada Agricultural Experiment Station, Reno, Nevada. Paper No. 404 Scientific Journal Series. Nevada Agricultural Experiment Station