Adaptive evolution of anti-predator ability promotes the diversity of prey species: critical function analysis

In this paper, with the method of adaptive dynamics and critical function analysis, we investigate the evolutionary diversification of prey species. We assume that prey species can evolve safer strategies such that it can reduce the predation risk, but this has a cost in terms of its reproduction. First, by using the method of critical function analysis, we identify the general properties of trade-off functions that allow for continuously stable strategy and evolutionary branching in the prey strategy. It is found that if the trade-off curve is globally concave, then the evolutionarily singular strategy is continuously stable. However, if the trade-off curve is concave-convex-concave and the prey's sensitivity to crowding is not strong, then the evolutionarily singular strategy may be an evolutionary branching point, near which the resident and mutant prey can coexist and diverge in their strategies. Second, we find that after branching has occurred in the prey strategy, if the trade-off curve is concave-convex-concave, the prey population will eventually evolve into two different types, which can coexist on the long-term evolutionary timescale. The algebraical analysis reveals that an attractive dimorphism will always be evolutionarily stable and that no further branching is possible for the concave-convex-concave trade-off relationship.     

Evolutionary branching and long-term coexistence of cycling predators: critical function analysis

It is well known that two predators with different functional responses can coexist on one prey when the system exhibits nonequilibrium dynamics. In this paper, we investigate under which conditions such coexistence is evolutionarily stable, and whether the two predators may evolve from a single ancestor via evolutionary branching. We assume that predator strategies differ in handling time, and hence in the shape of their Holling type II functional response. Longer handling times are costly in terms of lost foraging time, but allow the predator to extract more nutrients from the prey and therefore to produce more offspring per consumed prey. In the analysis, we apply a new method to accommodate arbitrary trade-off functions between handling time and offspring production. Contrary to previous results obtained assuming a particular trade-off [Kisdi, E. and Liu, S., 2006. J. Evol. Biol. 19, 49-58], we find that evolutionary branching of handling time is possible, although it does not appear to be very likely and can be excluded for a class of trade-offs. Evolutionarily stable coexistence of two predators occurs under less restrictive conditions, which are always satisfied when the trade-off function has two strongly concave parts connected by a convex piece.     

Evolutionary branching of virulence in a single-infection model

This study explores the evolutionary dynamics of pathogen virulence in a single-infection model with density-dependent mortality. Although virulence is not an adaptation of the pathogen per se, it is generally believed to be an inevitable by-product of a pathogen's need to propagate and transmit to new hosts: an increase in virulence will parallel an increase in transmission efficacy. The exact characteristics of the trade-off curve defined by this relationship are important with respect to possible evolutionary scenarios. We conduct a critical function analysis, a method that exposes the evolutionary outcome resulting from trade-offs of arbitrary shape, and find that this simple model can display a wide variety of evolutionary dynamics; comprising multiple stable attractors, evolutionary repellors, and most notably, evolutionary branching points. We identify the conditions under which the different evolutionary outcomes are realised. Our analysis furthermore considers the evolution of coexisting strains, and identifies the trade-off characteristics that will support an evolutionarily stable dimorphic state. We find that an evolutionarily stable dimorphism may exist also in the absence of a branching point in the monomorphic state. The analysis reveals that an evolutionarily stable dimorphism will always be attracting and that no further branching is possible under this model. We discuss our results in relation to the dimension of the environmental feedback inherent in the model, and to results from previous studies and models of evolution of virulence.     

Adaptive evolution of foraging-related traits in a predator-prey community

In this paper, with the method of adaptive dynamics and geometric technique, we investigate the adaptive evolution of foraging-related phenotypic traits in a predator-prey community with trade-off structure. Specialization on one prey type is assumed to go at the expense of specialization on another. First, we identify the ecological and evolutionary conditions that allow for evolutionary branching in predator phenotype. Generally, if there is a small switching cost near the singular strategy, then this singular strategy is an evolutionary branching point, in which predator population will change from monomorphism to dimorphism. Second, we find that if the trade-off curve is globally convex, predator population eventually branches into two extreme specialists, each completely specializing on a particular prey species. However, if the trade-off curve is concave-convex-concave, after branching in predator phenotype, the two predator species will evolve to an evolutionarily stable dimorphism at which they can continue to coexist. The analysis reveals that an attractive dimorphism will always be evolutionarily stable and that no further branching is possible under this model.     

Evolutionary dynamics of fearfulness and boldness

A negative relationship between reproductive effort and survival is consistent with life-history. Evolutionary dynamics and evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for the trade-off between survival and reproduction are investigated using a simple model with two phenotypes, fearfulness and boldness. The dynamical stability of the pure strategy model and analysis of ESS conditions reveal that: (i) the simple coexistence of fearfulness and boldness is impossible; (ii) a small population size is favorable to fearfulness, but a large population size is favorable to boldness, i.e., neither fearfulness, nor boldness is always favored by natural selection; and (iii) the dynamics of population density is crucial for a proper understanding of the strategy dynamics.     

Superinfections can induce evolutionarily stable coexistence of pathogens

Parasites reproduce and are subject to natural selection at several different, but intertwined, levels. In the recent paper, Gilchrist and Coombs (Theor. Popul. Biol. 69:145–153, 2006) relate the between-host transmission in the context of an SI model to the dynamics within a host. They demonstrate that within-host selection may lead to an outcome that differs from the outcome of selection at the host population level. In this paper we combine the two levels of reproduction by considering the possibility of superinfection and study the evolution of the pathogen’s within-host reproduction rate p. We introduce a superinfection function φ = φ(p,q), giving the probability with which pathogens with trait q, upon transmission to a host that is already infected by pathogens with trait p, “take over” the host. We consider three cases according to whether the function q → φ(p,q) (i) has a discontinuity, (ii) is continuous, but not differentiable, or (iii) is differentiable in q = p. We find that in case (i) the within-host selection dominates in the sense that the outcome of evolution at the host population level coincides with the outcome of evolution in a single infected host. In case (iii), it is the transmission to susceptible hosts that dominates the evolution to the extent that the singular strategies are the same as when the possibility of superinfections is ignored. In the biologically most relevant case (ii), both forms of reproduction contribute to the value of a singular trait. We show that when φ is derived from a branching process variant of the submodel for the within-host interaction of pathogens and target cells, the superinfection functions fall under case (ii). We furthermore demonstrate that the superinfection model allows for steady coexistence of pathogen traits at the host population level, both on the ecological, as well as on the evolutionary time scale.      

Stability of evolutionarily stable strategies in discrete replicator dynamics with time delay

We construct two models of discrete-time replicator dynamics with time delay. In the social-type model, players imitate opponents taking into account average payoffs of games played some units of time ago. In the biological-type model, new players are born from parents who played in the past. We consider two-player games with two strategies and a unique mixed evolutionarily stable strategy. We show that in the first type of dynamics, it is asymptotically stable for small time delays and becomes unstable for big ones when the population oscillates around its stationary state. In the second type of dynamics, however, evolutionarily stable strategy is asymptotically stable for any size of a time delay.     

The evolution of phenotypic traits in a predator-prey system subject to Allee effect

This paper considers the evolution of phenotypic traits in a community comprising the populations of predators and prey subject to Allee effect. The evolutionary model is constructed from a deterministic approximation of the stochastic process of mutation and selection. Firstly, we investigate the ecological and evolutionary conditions that allow for continuously stable strategy and evolutionary branching. We find that the strong Allee effect of prey facilitates the formation of continuously stable strategy in the case that prey population undergoes evolutionary branching if the Allee effect of prey is not strong enough. Secondly, we show that evolutionary suicide is impossible for prey population when the intraspecific competition of prey is symmetric about the origin. However, evolutionary suicide can occur deterministically on prey population if prey individuals undergo strong asymmetric competition and are subject to Allee effect. Thirdly, we show that the evolutionary model with symmetric interactions admits a stable limit cycle if the Allee effect of prey is weak. Evolutionary cycle is a likely outcome of the process, which depends on the strength of Allee effect and the mutation rates of predators and prey.     

Evolutionary syndromes linking dispersal and mating system: the effect of autocorrelation in pollination conditions

Self-fertilization is classically thought to be associated with propagule dispersal because self-fertilization is a boon to colonizers entering environments devoid of pollinators or potential mates. Yet, it has been theoretically shown that random fluctuations in pollination conditions select for the opposite association of traits. In nature, however, various ecological factors may deviate from random variations, and thus create temporal correlation in pollination conditions. Here, we develop a model to assess the effects of pollination condition autocorrelation on the joint evolution of dispersal and self-fertilization. Basically, two syndromes are found: dispersing outcrossers and nondispersing (partial) selfers. Importantly, (1) selfers are never associated with dispersal, whereas complete outcrossers are, and (2) the disperser/outcrosser syndrome is favored (resp. disfavored) by negative (resp. positive) autocorrelation in pollination conditions. Our results suggest that observed dispersal/mating system syndromes may depend heavily on the regime of pollination condition fluctuations. We also point out potential negative evolutionary effects of anthropic management of the environment on outcrossing species.     

CSS, NIS and dynamic stability for two-species behavioral models with continuous trait spaces

Static continuously stable strategy (CSS) and neighborhood invader strategy (NIS) conditions are developed for two-species models of frequency-dependent behavioral evolution when individuals have traits in continuous strategy spaces. These are intuitive stability conditions that predict the eventual outcome of evolution from a dynamic perspective. It is shown how the CSS is related to convergence stability for the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics and the NIS to convergence to a monomorphism for the replicator equation of evolutionary game theory. The CSS and NIS are also shown to be special cases of neighborhood p^*- superiority for p^* equal to one half and zero, respectively. The theory is illustrated when each species has a one-dimensional trait space.     

Determining the optimal developmental route of Strongyloides ratti: an evolutionarily stable strategy approach

Understanding the processes that drive parasite evolution is crucial to the development of management programs that sustain long-term, effective control of infectious disease in the face of parasite adaptation. Here we present a novel evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) model of the developmental decisions of a nematode parasite, Strongyloides ratti. The genus Strongyloides exhibits an unusual developmental plasticity such that progeny from an individual may either develop via a direct (homogonic) route, where the developing larvae are infective to new hosts, or an indirect (heterogonic) route, where the larvae develop into free-living, dioecious adults that undergo at least one bout of sexual reproduction outside the host, before producing offspring that develop into infective larvae. The model correctly predicts a number of observed features of the parasite's behavior and shows that this plasticity may be adaptive such that pure homogonic development, pure heterogonic development, or a mixed strategy may be optimal depending on the prevailing environmental conditions, both within and outside the host. Importantly, our results depend only on the benefits of an extra round of reproduction in the environment external to the host and not on benefits to sexual reproduction through the purging of deleterious mutation or the generation of novel, favorable genotypes. The ESS framework presented here provides a powerful, general approach to predict how macroparasites, the agents of many of the world's most important infectious diseases, will evolve in response to the various selection pressures imposed by different control regimes in the future.     

Descriptions of superparasitism by optimal foraging theory,evolutionarily stable strategies and quantitative genetics

Many parasitoids superparasitize, in which an insect attacks a previously parasitized host, laying an egg in the host even though only one offspring will emerge from the host. In this paper superparasitism is considered from the perspectives of optimal foraging theory, evolutionarily stable strategies, and quantitative genetics. The focal question is: at what point in its life should an individual parasitoid begin attacking previously parasitized hosts? Each of the three theoretical methods can be used to answer the question and by doing so, we see how the three methods are connected. Qualitative, empirical predictions based on the theories are described.     

Adaptive dynamics of cooperation may prevent the coexistence of defectors and cooperators and even cause extinction

It has recently been demonstrated that ecological feedback mechanisms can facilitate the emergence and maintenance of cooperation in public goods interactions: the replicator dynamics of defectors and cooperators can result, for example, in the ecological coexistence of cooperators and defectors. Here we show that these results change dramatically if cooperation strategy is not fixed but instead is a continuously varying trait under natural selection. For low values of the factor with which the value of resources is multiplied before they are shared among all participants, evolution will always favour lower cooperation strategies until the population falls below an Allee threshold and goes extinct, thus evolutionary suicide occurs. For higher values of the factor, there exists a unique evolutionarily singular strategy, which is convergence stable. Because the fitness function is linear with respect to the strategy of the mutant, this singular strategy is neutral against mutant invasions. This neutrality disappears if a nonlinear functional response in receiving benefits is assumed. For strictly concave functional responses, singular strategies become uninvadable. Evolutionary branching, which could result in the evolutionary emergence of cooperators and defectors, can occur only with locally convex functional responses, but we illustrate that it can also result in coevolutionary extinction.     

The unavoidable costs and unexpected benefits of parasitism: population and metapopulation models of parasite-mediated competition

When faced with limited resources, organisms have to determine how to allocate their resources to maximize fitness. In the presence of parasites, hosts may be selected for their ability to balance between the two competing needs of reproduction and immunity. These decisions can have consequences not only for host fitness, but also for the ability of parasites to persist within the population, and for the competitive dynamics between different host species. We develop two mathematical models to investigate how resource allocation strategies evolve at both population and metapopulation levels. The evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) at the population level is a balanced investment between reproduction and immunity that maintains parasites, even though the host has the capacity to eliminate parasites. The host exhibiting the ESS can always invade other host populations through parasite-mediated competition, effectively using the parasites as biological weapons. At the metapopulation level, the dominant strategy is sometimes different from the population-level ESS, and depends on the ratio of local extinction rate to host colonization rate. This study may help to explain why parasites are as common as they are, and can serve as a modeling framework for investigating parasite-mediated ecological invasions. Furthermore, this work highlights the possibility that the ‘introduction of enemies’ process may facilitate species invasion.     

Characterization of riparian species and stream detritus using multiple stable isotopes

Multiple stable isotopes were used to determine the effectiveness of distinguishing among several dominant riparian species and aquatic macrophytes both spatially (three sites) and temporally (three seasons) along an 8-km reach of a blackwater stream. The differences in isotopic composition were used to assess contributions of various organic matter sources to the detrital pool of the stream. Samples of riparian and aquatic macrophyte vegetation and detritus were collected at three times to represent early leaf-out (April), mid-summer (August), and just prior to abscission (October). Each sample was analyzed for stable isotopes of carbon ¹³C, nitrogen ¹⁵N, and sulfur ³⁴S Within a site and sampling date, ¹³C-values were significantly different among certain riparian species and detritus samples. Species differences persisted between seasons. ³⁴S values were the most variable of the three elements examined although they remained fairly constant through time within each species and site. The results suggest that temporal changes in isotopic compositions of riparian species and aquatic macrophytes are site-specific. Discriminant analysis dissimilarity plots (based on all three isotopes) demonstrated that the contribution of species to the detrital pool depended on the site and season. At the upper site, detritus was isotopically most similar to Quercus laurifolia and Sparganium americanum in April, and the aquatic macrophytes (S. americanum and Potamogeton spp.) in August and October. At the middle site, detritus was most similar to Carpinus caroliniana and Q. nigra in April but no single source was similar to detritus in August or October. At the lower site, detritus was most similar to Taxodium distichum for all three seasons.     

A mixed strategy model for the emergence and intensification of social learning in a periodically changing natural environment

Based on a population genetic model of mixed strategies determined by alleles of small effect, we derive conditions for the evolution of social learning in an infinite-state environment that changes periodically over time. Each mixed strategy is defined by the probabilities that an organism will commit itself to individual learning, social learning, or innate behavior. We identify the convergent stable strategies (CSS) by a numerical adaptive dynamics method and then check the evolutionary stability (ESS) of these strategies. A strategy that is simultaneously a CSS and an ESS is called an attractive ESS (AESS). For certain parameter sets, a bifurcation diagram shows that the pure individual learning strategy is the unique AESS for short periods of environmental change, a mixed learning strategy is the unique AESS for intermediate periods, and a mixed learning strategy (with a relatively large social learning component) and the pure innate strategy are both AESS's for long periods. This result entails that, once social learning emerges during a transient era of intermediate environmental periodicity, a subsequent elongation of the period may result in the intensification of social learning, rather than a return to innate behavior.     

Evolution of cannibalistic traits: scenarios derived from adaptive dynamics

The evolution of cannibalistic traits in consumer populations is studied in this paper with the approach of adaptive dynamics theory. The model is kept at its minimum complexity by eliminating some environmental characteristics, like heterogeneity and seasonalities, and by hiding the size-structure of the population. Evolutionary dynamics are identified through numerical bifurcation analysis, applied both to the ecological (resident-mutant) model and to the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics. The result is a rich catalog of evolutionary scenarios involving evolutionary stable strategies and branching points both in the monomorphic and dimorphic dynamics. The possibility of evolutionary extinction of highly cannibalistic populations is also ascertained. This allows one to explain why cannibalism can be a transient stage of evolution.     

Modelling the adaptive dynamics of traits involved in inter- and intraspecific interactions: An assessment of three methods

In recent years, three related methods have been used to model the phenotypic dynamics of traits under the influence of natural selection. The first is based on an approximation to quantitative genetic recursion equations for sexual populations. The second is based on evolution in asexual lineages with mutation-generated variation. The third method finds an evolutionarily stable set of phenotypes for species characterized by a given set of fitness functions, assuming that the mode of reproduction places no constraints on the number of distinct types that can be maintained in the population. The three methods share the property that the rate of change of a trait within a homogeneous population is approximately proportional to the individual fitness gradient. The methods differ in assumptions about the potential magnitude of phenotypic differences in mutant forms, and in their assumptions about the probability that invasion or speciation occurs when a species has a stable, yet invadable phenotype. Determining the range of applicability of the different methods is important for assessing the validity of optimization methods in predicting the evolutionary outcome of ecological interactions. Methods based on quantitative genetic models predict that fitness minimizing traits will often be evolutionarily stable over significant time periods, while other approaches suggest this is likely to be rare. A more detailed study of cases of disruptive selection might reveal whether fitness-minimizing traits occur frequently in natural communities.     

An analysis of the coexistence of two host species with a shared pathogen

Population dynamics of two-host species under direct transmission of an infectious disease or a pathogen is studied based on the Holt–Pickering mathematical model, which accounts for the influence of the pathogen on the population of the two-host species. Through rigorous analysis and a numerical scheme of study, circumstances are specified under which the shared pathogen leads to the coexistence of the two-host species in either a persistent or periodic form. This study shows the importance of intrinsic growth rates or the differences between birth rates and death rates of the two host susceptibles in controlling these circumstances. It is also demonstrated that the periodicity may arise when the positive intrinsic growth rates are very small, but the periodicity is very weak which may not be observed in an empirical investigation.      

Individual dietary specialization in a generalist predator: A stable isotope analysis of urban and rural red foxes

Some carnivores are known to survive well in urban habitats, yet the underlying behavioral tactics are poorly understood. One likely explanation for the success in urban habitats might be that carnivores are generalist consumers. However, urban populations of carnivores could as well consist of specialist feeders. Here, we compared the isotopic specialization of red foxes in urban and rural environments, using both a population and an individual level perspective. We measured stable isotope ratios in increments of red fox whiskers and potential food sources. Our results reveal that red foxes have a broad isotopic dietary niche and a large variation in resource use. Despite this large variation, we found significant differences between the variance of the urban and rural population for δ¹³C as well as δ¹⁵N values, suggesting a habitat‐specific foraging behavior. Although urban regions are more heterogeneous regarding land cover (based on the Shannon index) than rural regions, the dietary range of urban foxes was smaller compared with that of rural conspecifics. Moreover, the higher δ¹³C values and lower δ¹⁵N values of urban foxes suggest a relatively high input of anthropogenic food sources. The diet of most individuals remained largely constant over a longer period. The low intraindividual variability of urban and rural red foxes suggests a relatively constant proportion of food items consumed by individuals. Urban and rural foxes utilized a small proportion of the potentially available isotopic dietary niche as indicated by the low within‐individual variation compared to the between‐individual variation. We conclude that generalist fox populations consist of individual food specialists in urban and rural populations at least over those periods covered by our study.