Model and test in a fungus of the probability that beneficial mutations survive drift

Determining the probability of fixation of beneficial mutations is critically important for building predictive models of adaptive evolution. Despite considerable theoretical work, models of fixation probability have stood untested for nearly a century. However, recent advances in experimental and theoretical techniques permit the development of models with testable predictions. We developed a new model for the probability of surviving genetic drift, a major component of fixation probability, for novel beneficial mutations in the fungus Aspergillus nidulans, based on the life-history characteristics of its colony growth on a solid surface. We tested the model by measuring the probability of surviving drift in 11 adapted strains introduced into wild-type populations of different densities. We found that the probability of surviving drift increased with mutant invasion fitness, and decreased with wild-type density, as expected. The model accurately predicted the survival probability for the majority of mutants, yielding one of the first direct tests of the extinction probability of beneficial mutations.     

Fitness effects of derived deleterious mutations in four closely related wild tomato species with spatial structure

A key issue in evolutionary biology is an improved understanding of the genetic mechanisms by which species adapt to various environments. Using DNA sequence data, it is possible to quantify the number of adaptive and deleterious mutations, and the distribution of fitness effects of new mutations (its mean and variance) by simultaneously taking into account the demography of a given species. We investigated how selection functions at eight housekeeping genes of four closely related, outcrossing species of wild tomatoes that are native to diverse environments in western South America (Solanum arcanum, S. chilense, S. habrochaites and S. peruvianum). We found little evidence for adaptive mutations but pervasive evidence for strong purifying selection in coding regions of the four species. In contrast, the strength of purifying selection seems to vary among the four species in non-coding (NC) regions (introns). Using F(ST)-based measures of fixation in subdivided populations, we suggest that weak purifying selection has affected the NC regions of S. habrochaites, S. chilense and S. peruvianum. In contrast, NC regions in S. arcanum show a distribution of fitness effects with mutations being either nearly neutral or very strongly deleterious. These results suggest that closely related species with similar genetic backgrounds but experiencing contrasting environments differ in the variance of deleterious fitness effects.     

On the relative roles of selection and genetic drift in shaping MHC variation

Genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) have provided some of the clearest examples of how natural selection generates discordances between adaptive and neutral variation in natural populations. The type and intensity of selection as well as the strength of genetic drift are believed to be important in shaping the resulting pattern of MHC diversity. However, evaluating the relative contribution of multiple microevolutionary forces is challenging, and empirical studies have reported contrasting results. For instance, balancing selection has been invoked to explain high levels of MHC diversity and low population differentiation in comparison with other nuclear markers. Other studies have shown that genetic drift can sometimes overcome selection and then patterns of genetic variation at adaptive loci cannot be discerned from those occurring at neutral markers. Both empirical and simulated data also indicate that loss of genetic diversity at adaptive loci can occur faster than at neutral loci when selection and population bottlenecks act simultaneously. Diversifying selection, on the other hand, explains accelerated MHC divergence as the result of spatial variation in pathogen‐mediated selective regimes. Because of all these possible scenarios and outcomes, collecting information from as many study systems as possible, is crucial to enhance our understanding about the evolutionary forces driving MHC polymorphism. In this issue, Miller and co‐workers present an illuminating contribution by combining neutral markers (microsatellites) and adaptive MHC class I loci during the investigation of genetic differentiation across island populations of tuatara Sphenodon punctatus. Their study of geographical variation reveals a major role of genetic drift in shaping MHC variation, yet they also discuss some support for diversifying selection.     

Sexual selection is ineffectual or inhibits the purging of deleterious mutations in Drosophila melanogaster

The effects of sexual selection on population mean fitness are unclear and a subject of debate. Recent models propose that, because reproductive success may be condition dependent, much of the genome may be a target of sexual selection. Under this scenario, mutations that reduce health, and thus nonsexual fitness, may also be deleterious with respect to reproductive success, meaning that sexual selection may contribute to the purging of deleterious alleles. We tested this hypothesis directly by subjecting replicate Drosophila melanogaster populations to two treatments that altered the opportunity for sexual selection and then tracked changes in the frequency of six separate deleterious alleles with recessive and visible phenotypic effects. While natural selection acted to decrease the frequency of all six mutations, the addition of sexual selection did not aid in the purging of any of them, and for three of them appears to have hampered it. Courtship and mating have harmful effects in this species and mate choice assays showed that males directed more courtship and mating behavior toward wild-type over mutant females, providing a likely explanation for sexual selection's cost. Whether this cost extends to other mutations (e.g., those lacking visible phenotypic effects) is an important topic for future research.     

Mutation accumulation in populations of varying size: large effect mutations cause most mutational decline in the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus under UV‐C radiation

Theory predicts that fitness decline via mutation accumulation will depend on population size, but there are only a few direct tests of this key idea. To gain a qualitative understanding of the fitness effect of new mutations, we performed a mutation accumulation experiment with the facultative sexual rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus at six different population sizes under UV‐C radiation. Lifetime reproduction assays conducted after ten and sixteen UV‐C radiations showed that while small populations lost fitness, fitness losses diminished rapidly with increasing population size. Populations kept as low as 10 individuals were able to maintain fitness close to the nonmutagenized populations throughout the experiment indicating that selection was able to remove the majority of large effect mutations in small populations. Although our results also seem to imply that small populations are effectively immune to mutational decay, we caution against this interpretation. Given sufficient time, populations of moderate to large size can experience declines in fitness from accumulating weakly deleterious mutations as demonstrated by fitness estimates from simulations and, tentatively, from a long‐term experiment with populations of moderate size. There is mounting evidence to suggest that mutational distributions contain a heavier tail of large effects. Our results suggest that this is also true when the mutational spectrum is altered by UV radiation.     

Spatial and temporal variation in a suite of life-history traits in two species of wolf spider

Abstract.  1. Life-history traits and density were assayed in seven populations of two sympatric species of wolf spider for three consecutive years. The goal of the study was to quantify population dynamics and its relation to spatial and temporal life-history variation.
2. Adult female body size and fecundity varied significantly, among field sites and among years, in both species. Female spiders of both species differed in mean relative reproductive effort among sites, but not among years. The size of offspring was invariable, with no significant differences due to site or year.
3. All populations of both species tended to either decrease or increase in density during a given year and this was tightly correlated with changes in prey consumption rates.
4. Since life-history patterns are determined primarily by selection, it is concluded that size at sexual maturity for females is phenotypically plastic and responds to changes in prey availability. Offspring size however is not plastic and it is likely that other selection forces have determined offspring size. Temporal fluctuations in population size are correlated over a large area relative to dispersal capabilities for these species and conservation efforts for invertebrates must take this into consideration.     

A coalescent model of background selection with recombination,demography and variation in selection coefficients

There is increasing evidence that background selection, the effects of the elimination of recurring deleterious mutations by natural selection on variability at linked sites, may be a major factor shaping genome-wide patterns of genetic diversity. To accurately quantify the importance of background selection, it is vital to have computationally efficient models that include essential biological features. To this end, a structured coalescent procedure is used to construct a model of background selection that takes into account the effects of recombination, recent changes in population size and variation in selection coefficients against deleterious mutations across sites. Furthermore, this model allows a flexible organization of selected and neutral sites in the region concerned, and has the ability to generate sequence variability at both selected and neutral sites, allowing the correlation between these two types of sites to be studied. The accuracy of the model is verified by checking against the results of forward simulations. These simulations also reveal several patterns of diversity that are in qualitative agreement with observations reported in recent studies of DNA sequence polymorphisms. These results suggest that the model should be useful for data analysis.     

Adaptation of experimental yeast populations to stressful conditions in relation to population size

The purpose of this experiment was to find out how a population becomes adapted to extremely stressful conditions as its environment deteriorates. We created a deteriorating environment for experimental selection lines of yeast by a stepwise increase in the concentration of salt in the growth medium. After each step, we tested the ability of the lines to grow at a high concentration of salt near the lethal limit for the ancestral strain. We found that mutations enhancing growth in this highly stressful environment began to spread at intermediate salt concentrations. The degree of enhancement was related to effective population size by a power law with a small exponent. The effect size of these mutations also increased with the population size in a similar fashion. From these results, we interpret adaptation to lethal stress as an indirect response to selection for resistance to previous lower levels of stress in a deteriorating environment. This suggests that the pattern of genetic correlation between successively higher levels of stress is an important factor in facilitating evolutionary rescue.     

Evolution of dispersal in metapopulations with local density dependence and demographic stochasticity

In this paper, we predict the outcome of dispersal evolution in metapopulations based on the following assumptions: (i) population dynamics within patches are density-regulated by realistic growth functions; (ii) demographic stochasticity resulting from finite population sizes within patches is accounted for; and (iii) the transition of individuals between patches is explicitly modelled by a disperser pool. We show, first, that evolutionarily stable dispersal rates do not necessarily increase with rates for the local extinction of populations due to external disturbances in habitable patches. Second, we describe how demographic stochasticity affects the evolution of dispersal rates: evolutionarily stable dispersal rates remain high even when disturbance-related rates of local extinction are low, and a variety of qualitatively different responses of adapted dispersal rates to varied levels of disturbance become possible. This paper shows, for the first time, that evolution of dispersal rates may give rise to monotonically increasing or decreasing responses, as well as to intermediate maxima or minima.     

Environmental variance in male mating success modulates the positive versus negative impacts of sexual selection on genetic load

Sexual selection on males is predicted to increase population fitness, and delay population extinction, when mating success negatively covaries with genetic load across individuals. However, such benefits of sexual selection could be counteracted by simultaneous increases in genome-wide drift resulting from reduced effective population size caused by increased variance in fitness. Resulting fixation of deleterious mutations could be greatest in small populations, and when environmental variation in mating traits partially decouples sexual selection from underlying genetic variation. The net consequences of sexual selection for genetic load and population persistence are therefore likely to be context dependent, but such variation has not been examined. We use a genetically explicit individual-based model to show that weak sexual selection can increase population persistence time compared to random mating. However, for stronger sexual selection such positive effects can be overturned by the detrimental effects of increased genome-wide drift. Furthermore, the relative strengths of mutation-purging and drift critically depend on the environmental variance in the male mating trait. Specifically, increasing environmental variance caused stronger sexual selection to elevate deleterious mutation fixation rate and mean selection coefficient, driving rapid accumulation of drift load and decreasing population persistence times. These results highlight an intricate balance between conflicting positive and negative consequences of sexual selection on genetic load, even in the absence of sexually antagonistic selection. They imply that environmental variances in key mating traits, and intrinsic genetic drift, should be properly factored into future theoretical and empirical studies of the evolution of population fitness under sexual selection.     

Population dynamics and evolutionary processes: the manifold roles of habitat selection

Summary Any character that has a substantial effect on a species' distribution and abundance can exert a variety of indirect effects on evolutionary processes. It is suggested that an organism's capacity for habitat selection is just such a character. Habitat selection can constrain the selective environment experienced by a population. Habitat selection can also indirectly influence the relative importance of natural selection, drift, and gene flow, through its effect on population size and growth rate. In many circumstances (but not all), habitat selection increases population size and growth rate, and thereby makes selection in a local environment more effective than drift and gene flow.     

Climate and spatio-temporal variation in the population dynamics of a long distance migrant, the white stork

1. A central question in ecology is to separate the relative contribution of density dependence and stochastic influences to annual fluctuations in population size. Here we estimate the deterministic and stochastic components of the dynamics of different European populations of white stork Ciconia ciconia. We then examined whether annual changes in population size was related to the climate during the breeding period (the 'tap hypothesis' sensu Saether, Sutherland & Engen (2004, Advances in Ecological Research, 35, 185 209) or during the nonbreeding period, especially in the winter areas in Africa (the 'tube hypothesis'). 2. A general characteristic of the population dynamics of this long-distance migrant is small environmental stochasticity and strong density regulation around the carrying capacity with short return times to equilibrium. 3. Annual changes in the size of the eastern European populations were correlated by rainfall in the wintering areas in Africa as well as local weather in the breeding areas just before arrival and in the later part of the breeding season and regional climate variation (North Atlantic Oscillation). This indicates that weather influences the population fluctuations of white storks through losses of sexually mature individuals as well as through an effect on the number of individuals that manages to establish themselves in the breeding population. Thus, both the tap and tube hypothesis explains climate influences on white stork population dynamics. 4. The spatial scale of environmental noise after accounting for the local dynamics was 67 km, suggesting that the strong density dependence reduces the synchronizing effects of climate variation on the population dynamics of white stork. 5. Several climate variables reduced the synchrony of the residual variation in population size after accounting for density dependence and demographic stochasticity, indicating that these climate variables had a synchronizing effect on the population fluctuations. In contrast, other climatic variables acted as desynchronizing agents. 6. Our results illustrate that evaluating the effects of common environmental variables on the spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics require estimates and modelling of their influence on the local dynamics.     

Diffusion approximations for one-locus multi-allele kin selection,mutation and random drift in group-structured populations: a unifying approach to selection models in population genetics

Diffusion approximations are ascertained from a two-time-scale argument in the case of a group-structured diploid population with scaled viability parameters depending on the individual genotype and the group type at a single multi-allelic locus under recurrent mutation, and applied to the case of random pairwise interactions within groups. The main step consists in proving global and uniform convergence of the distribution of the group types in an infinite population in the absence of selection and mutation, using a coalescent approach. An inclusive fitness formulation with coefficient of relatedness between a focal individual J affecting the reproductive success of an individual I, defined as the expected fraction of genes in I that are identical by descent to one or more genes in J in a neutral infinite population, given that J is allozygous or autozygous, yields the correct selection drift functions. These are analogous to the selection drift functions obtained with pure viability selection in a population with inbreeding. They give the changes of the allele frequencies in an infinite population without mutation that correspond to the replicator equation with fitness matrix expressed as a linear combination of a symmetric matrix for allozygous individuals and a rank-one matrix for autozygous individuals. In the case of no inbreeding, the mean inclusive fitness is a strict Lyapunov function with respect to this deterministic dynamics. Connections are made between dispersal with exact replacement (proportional dispersal), uniform dispersal, and local extinction and recolonization. The timing of dispersal (before or after selection, before or after mating) is shown to have an effect on group competition and the effective population size. In memory of Sam Karlin.     

Natural selection on floral traits through male and female function in wild populations of the heterostylous daffodil Narcissus triandrus

Measurements of natural selection in hermaphrodite populations require the analysis of performance through both female and male sex functions. Here, we investigate selection on three floral traits: flower number, flower length, and corona width through both sex functions in natural populations of the tristylous daffodil Narcissus triandrus . Selection through female function was examined in six populations, and in two of these we also estimated male selection gradients using multilocus microsatellite genotyping of parents and offspring. We detected significant directional selection for flower number through female function, and significant stabilizing selection for corona width and flower length through male function. Variation in male reproductive success was strongly influenced by the distance between mates and was significantly higher than variation in female reproductive success in one population, a result consistent with Bateman's principle. However, variation through both sex functions was similar in the other population and there was a significant negative correlation between female and male fitness indicating sex-specific trade-offs in reproductive success. Selection on floral design in N. triandrus was stronger through male than female function probably because floral morphology plays an important role in promoting effective cross-pollen transfer in populations of this heterostylous species.     

Interplay of Darwinian and frequency-dependent selection in the host-associated microbial populations

In order to analyze the microevolutionary processes in host-associated microorganisms, we simulated the dynamics of rhizobia populations composed of a parental strain and its mutants possessing the altered fitness within "plant-soil" system. The population dynamics was presented as a series of cycles (each one involves "soil-->rhizosphere-->nodules-->soil" succession) described using recurrent equations. For representing the selection and mutation pressures, we used a universal approach based on calculating the shifts in the genetic ratios of competing bacterial genotypes within the particular habitats and across several habitats. Analysis of the model demonstrated that a balanced polymorphism may be established in rhizobia population: mutants with an improved fitness do not supplant completely the parental strain while mutants with a decreased fitness may be maintained stably. This polymorphism is caused by a rescue of low-fitted genotypes via negative frequency-dependent selection (FDS) that is implemented during inoculation of nodules and balances the Darwinian selection that occurs during multiplication or extinction of bacteria at different habitats. The most diverse populations are formed if the rhizobia are equally successful in soil and nodules, while a marked preference for any of these habitats results in the decrease of diversity. Our simulation suggests that FDS can maintain the mutualistic rhizobia-legume interactions under the stress conditions deleterious for surviving the bacterial strains capable for intensive N2 fixation. Genetic consequences of releasing the modified rhizobia strains may be addressed using the presented model.     

Genetic drift and mutational hazard in the evolution of salamander genomic gigantism

Salamanders have the largest nuclear genomes among tetrapods and, excepting lungfishes, among vertebrates as a whole. Lynch and Conery (2003) have proposed the mutational‐hazard hypothesis to explain variation in genome size and complexity. Under this hypothesis, noncoding DNA imposes a selective cost by increasing the target for degenerative mutations (i.e., the mutational hazard). Expansion of noncoding DNA, and thus genome size, is driven by increased levels of genetic drift and/or decreased mutation rates; the former determines the efficiency with which purifying selection can remove excess DNA, whereas the latter determines the level of mutational hazard. Here, we test the hypothesis that salamanders have experienced stronger long‐term, persistent genetic drift than frogs, a related clade with more typically sized vertebrate genomes. To test this hypothesis, we compared dN/dS and Kr/Kc values of protein‐coding genes between these clades. Our results do not support this hypothesis; we find that salamanders have not experienced stronger genetic drift than frogs. Additionally, we find evidence consistent with a lower nucleotide substitution rate in salamanders. This result, along with previous work showing lower rates of small deletion and ectopic recombination in salamanders, suggests that a lower mutational hazard may contribute to genomic gigantism in this clade.     

The extended Moran effect and large-scale synchronous fluctuations in the size of great tit and blue tit populations

1. Synchronous fluctuations of geographically separated populations are in general explained by the Moran effect, i.e. a common influence on the local population dynamics of environmental variables that are correlated in space. Empirical support for such a Moran effect has been difficult to provide, mainly due to problems separating out effects of local population dynamics, demographic stochasticity and dispersal that also influence the spatial scaling of population processes. Here we generalize the Moran effect by decomposing the spatial autocorrelation function for fluctuations in the size of great tit Parus major and blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus populations into components due to spatial correlations in the environmental noise, local differences in the strength of density regulation and the effects of demographic stochasticity. 2. Differences between localities in the strength of density dependence and nonlinearity in the density regulation had a small effect on population synchrony, whereas demographic stochasticity reduced the effects of the spatial correlation in environmental noise on the spatial correlations in population size by 21.7% and 23.3% in the great tit and blue tit, respectively. 3. Different environmental variables, such as beech mast and climate, induce a common environmental forcing on the dynamics of central European great and blue tit populations. This generates synchronous fluctuations in the size of populations located several hundred kilometres apart. 4. Although these environmental variables were autocorrelated over large areas, their contribution to the spatial synchrony in the population fluctuations differed, dependent on the spatial scaling of their effects on the local population dynamics. We also demonstrate that this effect can lead to the paradoxical result that a common environmental variable can induce spatial desynchronization of the population fluctuations. 5. This demonstrates that a proper understanding of the ecological consequences of environmental changes, especially those that occur simultaneously over large areas, will require information about the spatial scaling of their effects on local population dynamics.     

Genetic architecture of differences between populations of cowpea weevil (Callosobruchus maculatus) evolved in the same environment

We investigated the genetic architecture underlying differentiation in fitness-related traits between two pairs of populations of the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus (Coleoptera: Bruchidae). These populations had geographically distant (> 2000 km) origins but evolved in a uniform laboratory environment for 120 generations. For each pair of populations (Nigeria x Yemen and Cameroon x Uganda) we estimated the means of five fitness-related characters and a measure of fitness (net reproductive rate R0) in each of the parental populations and 12 types of hybrids (two F1 and two F2 lines and eight backcrosses). Models containing up to nine composite genetic parameters were fitted to the means of the 14 lines. The patterns of line means for all traits in the Nigeria x Yemen cross and for four traits (larval survival, developmental rate, female body weight, and fecundity) in the Cameroon x Uganda cross were best explained by models including additive, dominance, and maternal effects, but excluding epistasis. We did not find any evidence for outbreeding depression for any trait. An epistatic component of divergence was detected for egg hatching success and R0 in the Cameroon x Uganda cross, but its sign was opposite to that expected under outbreeding depression, that is, additive x additive epistasis had a positive effect on the performance of F2 hybrids. All traits except fecundity showed a pattern of heterosis. A large difference of egg-hatching success between the two reciprocal F1 lines in that cross was best explained as fertilization incompatibility between Cameroon females and sperm carrying Uganda genes. The results suggest that these populations have not converged to the same life-history phenotype and genetic architecture, despite 120 generations of uniform natural selection. However, the absence of outbreeding depression implies that they did not evolve toward different adaptive peaks.