Relationships between butterflyfish (Chaetodontidae) feeding rates and coral consumption on the Great Barrier Reef

This study explored differences in the feeding rate among 20 species of coral reef butterflyfishes (Chaetodontidae) from Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Feeding rate, measured as bites per minute (b.p.m.), varied between 2.98 ± 0.65 and 12.29 ± 0.27 (mean ± SE) according to species and was positively related to the proportional consumption of coral (r ² = 0.40, n = 20, P < 0.01), independent of phylogeny (standardised independent contrasts r ² = 0.29, n = 19, P < 0.05). All species fed actively throughout the day, with obligate corallivores having a higher feeding rate at all times than either facultative corallivores or non-corallivores. The feeding rate of the obligate corallivores was also highest during the middle of the day. For eight of the species for which data was available, there was a positive correlation between bite rate and competitive dominance (r = 0.71, P < 0.05). Chaetodon ephippium was the only species for which the feeding rate of pairs was higher than for solitary individuals.     

Cleaning to corallivory: ontogenetic shifts in feeding ecology of tubelip wrasse

Cleaning and corallivory are two prevalent feeding modes among coral reef fishes. Some fishes exhibit ontogenetic shifts between cleaning behaviour and corallivory, suggesting some common physiological or morphological adaptations suited to these highly contrasting feeding habits. This study investigated ontogenetic changes in feeding behaviour for three species of coral-feeding wrasses (F: Labridae). All three species (Labrichthys unilineatus, Labropsis alleni and Diproctacanthus xanthurus) exhibited substantial changes in feeding behaviour from juvenile to adult size classes. While L. unilineatus was corallivorous throughout its entire life, the coral taxa consumed varied greatly with ontogeny. Labropsis alleni and D. xanthurus exhibited pronounced changes, with juveniles cleaning before a switch to obligate corallivory at approximately 3.5–5 cm. The ability of L. alleni and D. xanthurus to adopt a cleaning strategy may be a consequence and their close relationship to the obligate cleaner wrasses (Genus: Labroides).     

Specialist corallivores dominate butterflyfish assemblages in coral‐dominated reef habitats

This study examined the dietary habits and functional composition of butterflyfishes in the Chagos Archipelago, central Indian Ocean. Eighteen species of butterflyfishes were recorded in Chagos, including six obligate corallivores (Chaetodon bennetti, Chaetodon guttatissimus, Chaetodon meyeri, Chaetodon trifascialis, Chaetodon trifasciatus and Chaetodon zanzibarensis), five facultative corallivores (Chaetodon auriga, Chaetodon falcula, Chaetodon interruptus, Chaetodon kleinii and Chaetodon madagaskariensis), two non‐corallivores (Chaetodon lunula and Chaetodon xanthocephalus) and a further five species (Chaetodon citrinellus, Chaetodon lineolatus, Heimitaurichthys zoster, Heniochus monoceros and Forcipiger flavissimus), for which local dietary habits were not studied. There were marked differences in the abundance of butterflyfishes among sites and between reef zones, mostly associated with variation in abundance of scleractinian corals. Obligate coral‐feeding species (mostly C. trifascialis) dominated across all sites. This study suggests that coral feeding and high levels of dietary specialization contribute to high population‐level fitness among coral reef butterflyfishes. Despite being more vulnerable to habitat disturbances and coral loss, it appears likely that specialist coral‐feeding butterflyfishes are also much more resilient to occasional disturbances, and therefore dominate in a wide range of coral reef habitats.     

Effects of coral bleaching on the feeding response of two species of coral-feeding fish

Coral bleaching is an increasingly prominent threat to coral reef ecosystems, not only to corals, but also to the many organisms that rely on coral for food and shelter. Coral-feeding fishes are negatively affected by coral loss caused by extensive bleaching, but it is unknown how feeding behaviour of most corallivorous fishes changes in response to coral bleaching. In this study, coral bleaching was experimentally induced in situ to examine the feeding response of two obligate corallivorous fish, Labrichthys unilineatus (Labridae) and Chaetodon baronessa (Chaetodontidae). Feeding rates were monitored before, during, and immediately after experimental bleaching of prey corals. L. unilineatus significantly increased its feeding on impacted corals during bleaching, but showed a steady decline in feeding once corals were fully bleached. Feeding response of L. unilineatus appears to parallel the expected stress-induced mucous production by bleaching colonies. In contrast, C. baronessa preferentially fed from healthy colonies over bleached colonies, although bleached colonies were consumed for five days following manipulation. Feeding by corallivorous fishes can play an important role in determining coral condition and mortality of corals following stress induced bleaching.     

Maintenance of fish diversity on disturbed coral reefs

Habitat perturbations play a major role in shaping community structure; however, the elements of disturbance-related habitat change that affect diversity are not always apparent. This study examined the effects of habitat disturbances on species richness of coral reef fish assemblages using annual surveys of habitat and 210 fish species from 10 reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Over a period of 11 years, major disturbances, including localised outbreaks of crown-of-thorns sea star (Acanthaster planci), severe storms or coral bleaching, resulted in coral decline of 46–96% in all the 10 reefs. Despite declines in coral cover, structural complexity of the reef framework was retained on five and species richness of coral reef fishes maintained on nine of the disturbed reefs. Extensive loss of coral resulted in localised declines of highly specialised coral-dependent species, but this loss of diversity was more than compensated for by increases in the number of species that feed on the epilithic algal matrix (EAM). A unimodal relationship between areal coral cover and species richness indicated species richness was greatest at approximately 20% coral cover declining by 3–4 species (6–8% of average richness) at higher and lower coral cover. Results revealed that declines in coral cover on reefs may have limited short-term impact on the diversity of coral reef fishes, though there may be fundamental changes in the community structure of fishes.     

Multiple disturbances and the global degradation of coral reefs: are reef fishes at risk or resilient?

Increased frequency of disturbances and anthropogenic activities are predicted to have a devastating impact on coral reefs that will ultimately change the composition of reef associated fish communities. We reviewed and analysed studies that document the effects of disturbance‐mediated coral loss on coral reef fishes. Meta‐analysis of 17 independent studies revealed that 62% of fish species declined in abundance within 3 years of disturbances that resulted in >10% decline in coral cover. Abundances of species reliant on live coral for food and shelter consistently declined during this time frame, while abundance of some species that feed on invertebrates, algae and/or detritus increased. The response of species, particularly those expected to benefit from the immediate loss of coral, is, however, variable and is attributed to erratic replenishment of stocks, ecological versatility of species and sublethal responses, such as changes in growth, body condition and feeding rates. The diversity of fish communities was found to be negatively and linearly correlated to disturbance‐mediated coral loss. Coral loss >20% typically resulted in a decline in species richness of fish communities, although diversity may initially increase following small declines in coral cover from high coverage. Disturbances that result in an immediate loss of habitat complexity (e.g. severe tropical storms), have a greater impact on fishes from all trophic levels, compared with disturbances that kill corals, but leave the reef framework intact (e.g. coral bleaching and outbreaks of Acanthaster planci). This is most evident among small bodied species and suggests the long‐term consequences of coral loss through coral bleaching and crown‐of‐thorn starfish outbreaks may be much more substantial than the short‐term effects currently documented.     

The effect of coral morphology on shelter selection by coral reef fishes

While the loss of structural complexity causes declines in coral reef fish diversity, the processes leading to this decline are largely unexplained. To explore the role of coral morphology in providing shelter for fishes, tabular, branching and massive corals were filmed with video cameras and their usage by large reef fishes compared. Tabular corals were utilised more than the other two morphologies, with at least triple the abundance, biomass and residence times of large fishes. The preference of coral reef fishes for specific structural traits of tabular corals was also examined using artificial structural units. This experimental component showed that large reef fishes preferred opaque rather than translucent canopies. It appears that large fishes cue to tabular corals because of the concealment and/or shade provided. It is suggested that a loss of tabular corals as a result of climate change would have significant ecological impacts for the coral reef fishes that use these structures for shelter.     

Extreme spatial heterogeneity in carbonate accretion potential on a Caribbean fringing reef linked to local human disturbance gradients

The capacity of coral reefs to maintain their structurally complex frameworks and to retain the potential for vertical accretion is vitally important to the persistence of their ecological functioning and the ecosystem services they sustain. However, datasets to support detailed along‐coast assessments of framework production rates and accretion potential do not presently exist. Here, we estimate, based on gross bioaccretion and bioerosion measures, the carbonate budgets and resultant estimated accretion rates (EAR) of the shallow reef zone of leeward Bonaire – between 5 and 12 m depth – at unique fine spatial resolution along this coast (115 sites). Whilst the fringing reef of Bonaire is often reported to be in a better ecological condition than most sites throughout the wider Caribbean region, our data show that the carbonate budgets of the reefs and derived EAR varied considerably across this ~58 km long fringing reef complex. Some areas, in particular the marine reserves, were indeed still dominated by structurally complex coral communities with high net carbonate production (>10 kg CaCO₃ m^?2 year^?1), high live coral cover and complex structural topography. The majority of the studied sites, however, were defined by relatively low budget states (<2 kg CaCO₃ m^?2 year^?1) or were in a state of net erosion. These data highlight the marked spatial heterogeneity that can occur in budget states, and thus in reef accretion potential, even between quite closely spaced areas of individual reef complexes. This heterogeneity is linked strongly to the degree of localized land‐based impacts along the coast, and resultant differences in the abundance of reef framework building coral species. The major impact of this variability is that those sections of reef defined by low‐accretion rates will have limited capacity to maintain their structural integrity and to keep pace with current projections of climate change induced sea‐level rise (SLR), thus posing a threat to reef functioning and biodiversity, potentially leading to trophic cascades. Since many Caribbean reefs are more severely degraded than those found around Bonaire, it is to be expected that the findings presented here are rather the rule than the exception, but the study also highlights the need for similar high spatial resolution (along‐coast) assessments of budget states and accretion rates to meaningfully explore increasing coastal risk at the country level. The findings also more generally underline the significance of reducing local anthropogenic disturbance and restoring framework building coral assemblages. Appropriately focussed local preservation efforts may aid in averting future large‐scale above reef water depth increases on Caribbean coral reefs and will limit the social and economic implications associated with the loss of reef goods and services.     

Otolith growth of Springer's demoiselle, Chrysiptera springeri (Pomacentridae, Allen & Lubbock), on a protected and non-protected coral reef

The structural complexity of coral reefs is important for their function as shelter and feeding habitats for coral reef fishes, but physical disturbance by human activities often reduce complexity of the reefs by selectively destroying fragile and more complex coral species. The damselfish Springer's demoiselle Chrysiptera springeri primarily utilize complex coral heads for shelter and are hence vulnerable to human disturbance. In order to evaluate the potential effect of habitat degradation on juvenile fish growth, coral reef cover, fish age at settling and otolith growth, juvenile Springer's demoiselle was investigated on a protected and non‐protected coral reef in Darvel Bay, Borneo. The protected reef had higher coverage of complex branching corals and exhibited a more complex 3‐dimensional structure than the non‐protected reef. Springer's demoiselle settled at the same age on non‐protected and protected reefs. The growth rates of the otoliths from Springer's demoiselle were similar during the pre‐settlement period on the two reefs (manova , P > 0.05), but from age 20 to 48 days (post‐settlement period) the otolith growth rate of juveniles on the non‐protected reef was reduced compared to those from the protected reef (manova , P = 0.017). However, the differences in the otolith size, and by inference, fish size, after 48 days were small. The small effect of habitat degradation on growth is likely related to the fact that the Springer's demoiselles collected on the non‐protected reef were associated with the few remaining complex coral heads. Increased foraging‐predation tradeoffs on the non‐protected reef may decrease food intake and growth of juvenile Springer's demoiselle, but the main effect of habitat degradation on their abundance is likely to be related to lack of suitable shelter, and consequently reduced carrying capacity, on disturbed reefs.     

Suspended sediment impairs habitat choice and chemosensory discrimination in two coral reef fishes

Increasing sediment onto coral reefs has been identified as a major source of habitat degradation, and yet little is known about how it affects reef fishes. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that sediment-enriched water impairs the ability of larval damselfish to find suitable settlement sites. At three different experimental concentrations of suspended sediment (45, 90, and 180 mg l⁻¹), pre-settlement individuals of two species (Pomacentrus amboinensis and P. moluccensis) were not able to select their preferred habitat. In a clear water environment (no suspended sediment), both species exhibit a strong preference for live coral over partially dead and dead coral, choosing live coral 70 and 80% of the time, respectively. However, when exposed to suspended sediment, no habitat choice was observed, with individuals of both species settling on live coral, partially dead, and dead coral, at the same frequency. To determine a potential mechanism underlying these results, we tested chemosensory discrimination in sediment-enriched water. We demonstrated that sediment disrupts the ability of this species to respond to chemical cues from different substrata. That is, individuals of P. moluccensis prefer live coral to dead coral in clear water, but in sediment-enriched water, chemical cues from live and dead coral were not distinguished. These results suggest that increasing suspended sediment in coral reef environments may reduce settlement success or survival of coral reef fishes. A sediment-induced disruption of habitat choice may compound the effects of habitat loss on coral reefs.     

The influence of colony size and coral health on the occupation of coral-associated gobies (Pisces: Gobiidae)

Fishes of the genus Gobiodon are habitat specialists by their association with Acropora corals. Little is known about the parameters that define host coral quality for these fishes, in particular their breeding pairs. Data were collected in the northern Red Sea using 10 × 1-m belt transects in different reefs and zones. Gobiid density was highly correlated with coral density over all sites and zones, and the more specialized goby species preferred coral species that are less vulnerable to environmental stress. Moreover, the occupation rate of corals by goby breeding pairs significantly increased with colony size and decreased with partial mortality of colonies. Logistic regression showed that both coral size (being most important) and partial mortality are key factors influencing the occupation by breeding pairs. This study provides the first evidence that breeding pairs of coral-associated gobiids have more advanced habitat requirements than con-specifics in other social states. As coral reefs are threatened worldwide and habitat loss and degradation increase, this information will help predict the potential effects on those reef fishes obligatorily associated with live corals.     

Feeding diets and significance of coral feeding among Chaetodontid fishes in Moorea (French Polynesia)

The feeding diets of 18 Chaetodontid fishes from a coral reef of Moorea (French Polynesia) were studied by quantitative analysis of their stomach contents. Three major types of feeding behaviours were distinguished. Sixteen species essentially ingested coral polyps. Among these species, 5 were exclusive coral browsers and the others displayed more heterogeneous diets. One species was a plankton feeder and the other consumed benthic invertebrates other than corals. The importance of coral consumption on the reef by Chaetodontid fishes was estimated knowing the feeding diets and density of species in the various biota. Moreover, the species which were previously observed as quantitatively dominant in the different reef zones, were found to be exclusive coral browsers. Besides, the proportion between obligative and facultative coral feeders was found to be relatively constant on the reef, emphasizing that a balance is established among the Chaetodontid species occupying the same habitat for the resource partitioning.     

Competition for shelter in a high-diversity system: structure use by large reef fishes

Competition among large reef fishes for shelter beneath tabular structures provides a rare opportunity to study competition in a species-rich environment. The system permits a detailed study of localised competition with major implications for coral reefs with respect to human impacts including climate change. Using underwater video cameras, this study examined competition among 30 species of large reef fishes (from nine families) for access to shelter provided by 26 tabular structures, which may be the highest reported diversity of vertebrates competing for a single resource. Mean concentrations of fishes under tabular structures were also among the highest biomass recorded on reefs (4.71 kg m⁻²). A generated dominance hierarchy for the occupation of shelter appeared to be primarily driven by the size of fishes. In contrast to previous studies, fishes higher in the hierarchy tended to exhibit the lowest levels of aggression. However, size difference between fishes was found to be strongly negatively correlated with the proportion of aggressive interactions (R ² = 0.971, P < 0.0001). The strong competition for the shade provided by these corals highlights concerns about future shifts in the structure of large reef fish communities as corals are lost. This is particularly concerning given the critical functional roles played by certain species of large reef fishes that utilise tabular structure for shelter and which occupy the lower ranks of the dominance hierarchy.

     

Herbivory facilitates growth of a key reef‐building Caribbean coral

The decline of reef‐building corals in conjunction with shifts to short‐lived opportunistic species has prompted concerns that Caribbean reef framework‐building capacity has substantially diminished. Restoring herbivore populations may be a potential driver of coral recovery; however, the impact of herbivores on coral calcification has been little studied. We performed an exclusion experiment to evaluate the impact of herbivory on Orbicella faveolata coral growth over 14 months. The experiment consisted of three treatments: full exclusion cages; half cage procedural controls; and uncaged control plates, each with small O. faveolata colonies. We found that herbivorous fish exclusion had a substantial impact on both macroalgal cover and coral growth. Fleshy macroalgae reached 50% cover within some exclusion cages, but were almost absent from uncaged control plates. Critically, O. faveolata calcification rates were suppressed by almost half within exclusion cages, with monthly coral growth negatively related to overgrowth by fleshy macroalgae. These findings highlight the importance of herbivorous fishes for coral growth and the detrimental impact of macroalgal proliferation in the Caribbean. Policy makers and local managers should consider measures to protect herbivorous fishes and reduce macroalgal proliferation to enable coral communities to continue to grow and function.     

Distribution and factors influencing on structure of reef fish communities in Nha Trang Bay Marine Protected Area, South-Central Vietnam

Visual censuses of coral reef fishes in Nha Trang Bay Marine Protected Area (MPA) were conducted during September–October 2005. Nha Trang Bay MPA is relatively rich in reef fishes compared to other areas in Vietnam and the Pacific Ocean outside the ‘Coral Triangle,’ consistent with its biogeographic location in the western South China Sea. A total of 266 species of 40 families of coral reef fishes formed five distinct assemblages. Spatial variations in distribution and structure of the assemblages were associated with eight significant biological and physical variables which were cover of living hard corals, encrusting corals, branching corals, Acropora, Millepora, Montipora, depth and distance from the coast of the mainland. The six factors in front are likely related to provision of shelter and nutrition, while the distance factor is likely to represent a gradient in disturbance and impacts from various mainland sources including sedimentation and pollution discharge from nearby rivers. Local species richness ranged from 35 to 70 species 500 m⁻² (mean: 51 ± 2 SE) for reef flat stations and from 23 to 68 species 500 m⁻² (mean: 48 ± 4 SE) for reef slope stations. Total species richness at each site averaged 76 species (±4 SE), ranging from 56 to 110 species, dominated by wrasses, damselfishes, butterflyfishes, parrotfishes, surgeonfishes, groupers and goatfishes. Density of total fishes at each station ranged from 348 to 1,444 individuals 500 m⁻² (mean: 722 ± 302 SE) for the reef flat stations and from 252 to 929 individuals 500 m⁻² (mean: 536 ± 215.7 SE) for the reef slope stations. Overall mean density at each site averaged 628.9 (±238.4 SE) individuals 500 m⁻². The highly protected sites supported higher mean density of fishes per site (ranged: 904.5–1,213 individuals 500 m⁻² for Hon Mun and 1,167.5 individuals 500 m⁻² for Hon Cau) compared to other sites (<800 individuals 500 m⁻²). Of the families included in the census, densities were dominated throughout the MPA by damselfishes and wrasses. Many target species, particularly groupers, snappers and emperors, were rare or absent and the low abundance of big fishes was consistent with over-harvesting. Similarly a low density of butterfly fishes and angelfishes is likely related to the supply for marine aquaria in Vietnam and overseas. This study provides an important baseline against which the success of present and future MPA management initiatives may be assessed.     

Branching coral as a macroalgal refuge in a marginal coral reef system

Marginal coral reef systems may provide valuable insights into the nature of ecosystem processes in systems on the trajectory towards a phase shift to an alternate ecosystem state. This study investigates the process of herbivory in a marginal coral reef system in the Keppel Islands at the southern end of the Great Barrier Reef. Branching Acropora coral and the brown macroalga Lobophora variegata occupied up to 95% of the reef crest substratum at the three surveyed reefs. Feeding rates of herbivorous fishes and removal rates of Lobophora were directly quantified within areas of branching Acropora and on planar surfaces. Feeding rates by herbivorous fishes were habitat dependent with the highest bite rates being found in planar habitats for both Lobophora and the epilithic algal matrix (EAM) by 1–2 orders of magnitude, respectively. Feeding rates on Lobophora were, however, much lower than rates on the EAM. The low rates of Lobophora removal and significantly lower rates of herbivory in branching habitats were consistent with the high biomass of this brown alga throughout the Keppel Islands and with its distribution on reef crests, where Lobophora biomass was 20 times greater in branching than in planar habitats. This lack of feeding by herbivorous fishes within branching coral habitats in the Keppel Islands contrasts with the typical role of coral and topographic complexity on herbivores on coral reefs and highlights the potential for complex interactions between algae, corals and fishes on coral reefs. On marginal systems, herbivory may modify algal distributions but may be unable to contain the proliferation of algae such as Lobophora.     

Elucidating the trophodynamics of four coral reef fishes of the Solomon Islands using δ15N and δ13C

Size-related diet shifts are important characteristics of fish trophodynamics. Here, body size–related changes in muscle δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C of four coral reef fishes, Acanthurus nigrofuscus (herbivore), Chaetodon lunulatus (corallivore), Chromis xanthura (planktivore) and Plectropomus leopardus (piscivore) were investigated at two locations in the Solomon Islands. All four species occupied distinct isotopic niches and the concurrent δ¹³C′ values of C. xanthura and P. leopardus suggested a common planktonic production source. Size-related shifts in δ¹⁵N, and thus trophic level, were observed in C. xanthura, C. lunulatus and P. leopardus, and these trends varied between location, indicating spatial differences in trophic ecology. A literature review of tropical fishes revealed that positive δ¹⁵N-size trends are common while negative δ¹⁵N-size trends are rare. Size-δ¹⁵N trends fall into approximately equal groups representing size-based feeding within a food chain, and that associated with a basal resource shift and occurs in conjunction with changes in production source, indicated by δ¹³C. The review also revealed large scale differences in isotope-size trends and this, combined with small scale location differences noted earlier, highlights a high degree of plasticity in the reef fishes studied. This suggests that trophic size analysis of reef fishes would provide a productive avenue to identify species potentially vulnerable to reef impacts as a result of constrained trophic behaviour.     

Evidence of an original scale development during the settlement phase of a coral reef fish (Acanthurus triostegus)

As the majority of coral reef fishes, the Convict Surgeonfish Acanthurus triostegus (Acanthuridae) has a complex life cycle that involves an ontogenetic change in morphology, physiology and behaviour as its pelagic larval stage colonizes the benthic habitat. Few studies are devoted to the changes in skeleton during the settlement phase of coral reef fishes. In the present study, we highlighted an unexpected scales development in A. trisostegus just after the reef settlement. At settlement (t₀), A. triostegus showed calcified and very thin vertical plates, lying in the dermis on the whole body. During the first 9 days after settlement, thin vertical plates regressed and adult scales began to appear simultaneously. At 12 days post‐settlement, the whole body was covered with small scales. Overall, such a rapid skeletal transformation is an example of morphological changes dealing with ‘metamorphosis’ of coral reef fishes.     

Evaluation of algal regulation by herbivorous fishes on Caribbean coral reefs

The role of herbivorous fishes in maintaining low macroalgal cover was evaluated on coral reefs on several reef sites from Guadeloupe, either protected or not. Grazing by herbivorous fishes was assessed on different algal facies using fish-bite counts. Algal consumption by fish was estimated as well as algal production. Bite counts revealed that herbivorous fishes feed preferentially on algal turf and avoid brown macroalgae. The algal consumption varied between 0.4 and 2.8 g m⁻² days⁻¹ and was higher inside marine protected areas than outside. Comparison with algal production revealed that herbivorous fishes did not succeed in regulating algal growth. The insufficient number of grazers may lead to the dominance of stable assemblages of macroalgae on coral reefs, preventing the recovery of reef into previous coral-dominated ecosystems.     

Spatial resilience of the Great Barrier Reef under cumulative disturbance impacts

In the face of increasing cumulative effects from human and natural disturbances, sustaining coral reefs will require a deeper understanding of the drivers of coral resilience in space and time. Here we develop a high‐resolution, spatially explicit model of coral dynamics on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Our model accounts for biological, ecological and environmental processes, as well as spatial variation in water quality and the cumulative effects of coral diseases, bleaching, outbreaks of crown‐of‐thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris), and tropical cyclones. Our projections reconstruct coral cover trajectories between 1996 and 2017 over a total reef area of 14,780 km², predicting a mean annual coral loss of ?0.67%/year mostly due to the impact of cyclones, followed by starfish outbreaks and coral bleaching. Coral growth rate was the highest for outer shelf coral communities characterized by digitate and tabulate Acropora spp. and exposed to low seasonal variations in salinity and sea surface temperature, and the lowest for inner‐shelf communities exposed to reduced water quality. We show that coral resilience (defined as the net effect of resistance and recovery following disturbance) was negatively related to the frequency of river plume conditions, and to reef accessibility to a lesser extent. Surprisingly, reef resilience was substantially lower within no‐take marine protected areas, however this difference was mostly driven by the effect of water quality. Our model provides a new validated, spatially explicit platform for identifying the reefs that face the greatest risk of biodiversity loss, and those that have the highest chances to persist under increasing disturbance regimes.