Socioeconomic determinants of fertility: Selected Mexican regions, 1976–1977

Abstract

Cumulative fertility is analyzed for four regions of Mexico, based on World Fertility Survey data of 1976–77: the State of Baja California, the Northwest region, the State of Jalisco, and the Northeast region. Based on stepwise regression methodology, the study compares results for twelve subsamples of married respondents, three age categories by four regions. The dependent variables are children ever born and children ever bom in the last five years. Migration, urban, educational, and occupational variables are included as independent variables. Regression results reveal level of education is the major, and negative, influence on fertility. Other results include specific negative effects for prior occupation, size of place of residence, and childhood place of residence. Fertility effects appear different for migration origin and destination regions, but more similar for younger ages. Effects of migration on fertility are small.     

Determinants of fertility in Nepal: applications of an aggregate model

Bongaarts aggregate model of the proximate determinants of fertility is applied to data from the 1976 National Fertility Survey in Nepal. Breastfeeding is shown to be the most important limiting factor, resulting in a reduction of about 6 children per woman. Decline in the duration of breastfeeding by 1/4 would increase fertility by 1 additional child per woman. The temporary separation of spouses due to migration is conjectured to be the 2nd most important fertility inhibiting factor, not explicitly accounted for in the standard model. Results are presented for the 3 major ecological regions, urban-rural residence and educational attainment of women. High nuptiality and virtually no contraceptive use in Nepal produce age-specific fertility rates very close to a natural fertility pattern. Total average interval between births is 36 months; about 18 months are solely due to breastfeeding, the remaining months to combined effects of gestation, waiting time to conception, intrauterine mortality and post-partum infecundability. As urbanization increases and pace of modernization becomes more pronounced, the duration of breastfeeding is susceptible to decline.     

Multivariate analysis of infant and child mortality in Java and Bali

The data used in this analysis come from the 1976 Indonesian Fertility Survey, part of the World Fertility Survey. The data are examined 3 times, fitting them to models which include different combinations of independent variables. The dependent variables are: 1) the proportion of children born between 5 and 15 years before the survey who died before their 1st birthday, for infant mortality; and 2) among those alive on their 1st birthday, the proportions who died before reaching their 5th birthday, for child mortality. The figures indicate that the chance of dying for children who were 1st born, born shortly after a previous child, whose previous sibling had died, who lived in rural areas, or had parents who were young and with little education, was greater than for children without these characteristics. In all 3 models used, the greatest net effects are attributed to the survival of a preceding sibling or the length of the preceding interval. Birth order does not have a significant gross effect on infant mortality, but the net effects are significant because of the control on maternal age. Education of both parents has significant effects, but these are overshadowed in magnitude by the demographic variables. Maternal education has a greater influence in determining differences in child mortality than was found for infant mortality. Father's education also has a significant independent effect, but mainly for 1st births. It is uncertain whether these variables are measuring the effect of schooling as such, or other characteristics such as economic status or various social roles adopted by people with different levels of education. The variables distinguishing urban from rural status shows significant gross effects which are greatly reduced when controls for other variables are introduced in the model which includes all births. That is to say, the difference in the survival chances of a child in the city is more a function of the education of its parents, and the associated demographic variables than city residence as such. Access to medical services is quite probably the main element in these differences. The findings are weakened to some extent by the lack of satisfactory data on household economic status which might have provided a better base for indirectly discerning the effects of nutrition and sanitation on mortality at young ages.     

Rural-urban differentials in marital fertility in four Muslim populations

An analysis based on data collected as a part of the World Fertility Survey program in 4 Muslim populations Bangladesh, Java, Jordan and Pakistan does not show a consistent pattern in rural-urban differentials in marital fertility. While no significant diiferential in current fertility by place of current residence is noticeable in Bangladesh and Pakistan, urban women in Jordan showed lower fertility than their rural counterparts. Cumulative fertility, when controlled for duration of marriage, was found to be higher in urban than in rural areas of Bangladesh and Pakistan, but no clear pattern emerged in Jordan. In Java, both current and cumulative fertility were higher in urban than in rural areas; urban women who had spent their childhood and were brought up in the urban environment showed, in most instances, higher fertility than the other residence groups. (author's modified     

Breast-feeding in Bangladesh

In this paper the duration of breastfeeding is examined in relation to demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of women and households. 98% of Bangladesh mothers breastfeed their children from birth. In data from the Bangladesh Fertility Survey conducted in 1975-1976 on 4998 live births, the mean duration of breastfeeding was 27.3 months. Duration of breastfeeding was positively related with the age of women. Female children were breastfed for periods about 5 months shorter than male children. Children born to urban mothers were breastfed for shorter durations than children born to rural mothers of all age groups. The duration of breastfeeding decreased with the increase of education of the mother. Promotion of breastfeeding should be a primary responsibility of family planning clinics. Further decline in the duration of breastfeeding would increase levels of fertility and infant and child mortality.     

Socioeconomic determinants of age at first marriage in Bangladesh

Using data from the 1976 Bangladesh Fertility Survey, multiple classification analysis was used to evaluate the effect of socioeconomic factors on age at 1st marriage. The independent variables considered were education, childhood and current residence, religion, work status before marriage, and husband's childhood residence, education, and occupation. Analysis was carried out for the total sample as well as for 3 birth cohorts of approximately equal size: 1) those born before 1940, 2) those born between 1940-50, and 3) those born after 1950. Of all the included variables, women's education has the strongest influence on the variation of age at 1st marriage. For all ever-married women, the mean age at marriage for women with primary education is 13.4 years, 0.9 years higher than for women with no education (12.5 years), and 1.2 years lower than for women with a high school education or beyond (14.6 years). Difference in means for cohorts indicate a gradually increasing influence of education on people's decision in marriage. Husband's education does not appear to be as important. Childhood residence has, directly and indirectly, a strong influence in marriage age. Among other factors, women's premarital work participation, as well as region and husband's occupation, are important. Since women's education, childhood residence, and work participation are the strongest socioeconomic variables affecting marriage age, the modernizing influences of education, urbanization, and female work participation should have an effect on the marriage pattern; this effect is consistent with that observed in other societies.     

Determinants of current use of contraception and children ever born in Nepal

This paper explores the extent to which women's work for earnings, education and couple communication over family planning influence current contraceptive use and children ever born in Nepal. Data came from the 1996 Nepal Family Health Survey. The findings indicate that education has a significant positive influence on current use of contraception and a significant negative influence on children ever born. There was virtually no relationship between women working and current use of contraception. However, in full models, there was a significant positive relationship for women who earn cash for work on current use and a significant negative relationship for children ever born. Working alone does not increase contraceptive use or reduce the number of children ever born in Nepal, but earning cash for work does. The husband/couple variables also proved to be important determinants of current use of contraception and children ever born.     

Determinants of current use of contraception and children ever born in Nepal

Abstract

This paper explores the extent to which women's work for earnings, education and couple communication over family planning influence current contraceptive use and children ever born in Nepal. Data came from the 1996 Nepal Family Health Survey. The findings indicate that education has a significant positive influence on current use of contraception and a significant negative influence on children ever born. There was virtually no relationship between women working and current use of contraception. However, in full models, there was a significant positive relationship for women who earn cash for work on current use and a significant negative relationship for children ever born. Working alone does not increase contraceptive use or reduce the number of children ever born in Nepal, but earning cash for work does. The husband/couple variables also proved to be important determinants of current use of contraception and children ever born.     

Ethnic differentials in early childhood mortality in Nepal

This paper investigates the association of early childhood mortality (between birth and second birthday) with ethnicity in Nepal, based on data from the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey, which was part of the World Fertility Survey. The approach is through a series of hazard models, which incorporate ethnicity, year of birth, mother's illiteracy, father's illiteracy, rural-urban residence, region, sex, maternal age, survival of previous birth, previous birth interval, and breast-feeding as covariates. Ethnic differentials in early childhood mortality are not explained by the other socioeconomic and demographic covariates, except for a modest effect of illiteracy, but the remaining covariates explain a great deal of variability in early childhood mortality itself. Analysis using an improved specification of breast-feeding as an age-varying covariate indicates, on average, that breast-feeding, relative to not breast-feeding, reduces age-specific mortality risks during the first 2 years of life by 76%, a very large effect.     

Effect of birth spacing on infant and child mortality in rural Nepal

This examination of the effect of birth spacing on infant and child mortality in rural Nepal is based on data from the Nepal Fertility Survey 1976 carried out by the Nepal Family Planning and Maternal Child Health Project in collaboration with the World Fertility Survey. The study confirms that the higher risk of infant death to 1st born children is mainly due to the higher proportion of younger women having 1st births, rather than due to their being 1st order births per se. The effect of maternal age on infant and child mortality is largely associated with birth interval. Previous birth interval, therefore, stands out as the most important factor affecting infant mortality; the next most important factor is the survival of the preceding child. A child born after an interval of less than 18 months since the previous live birth has a 31% higher risk of dying during infancy than 1 born after an interval of 1 1/2 to 2 years. The risk of the index child's dying is only 50% of that when its preceding sibling is dead. Neither education of mother nor education of father has a significant effect on infant mortality in rural Nepal.     

A note on the determinants of breastfeeding durations in an African country

Abstract

This paper utilizes data from the 1977–78 Kenya Fertility Survey, one component of the World Fertility Survey, to analyze the determinants of breastfeeding durations for women 15 to 50 years old who had their last‐but‐one live birth between 3 and 15 years prior to the interview. Comparisons are made with the findings from the World Fertility Surveys in eight other developing countries in Asia and Latin America. Findings indicate that literacy, urban residence, secondary school education, and modern employment reduce the duration of breastfeeding in Kenya. In addition, the subgroups of women who appear to be curtailing breastfeeding are growing in proportional size or are composed of women who may be innovators or leaders. A continuation of this pattern into the future may increase levels of infant morbidity and mortality and, in the absence of increased modern contraceptive practice, may increase the societal level of fertility.     

Determinants of cumulative fertility in Kenya

This paper analyses the effects of age at first marriage, level of education, place of residence, marriage disruption, religion, contraceptive use, and work status on cumulative fertility in Kenya, using data from the 1977-78 Kenya Fertility Survey. Age at first marriage is the main determinant of cumulative fertility, but there are significant effects of level of education and marriage disruption. Place of residence is only significant for the Coast province. The implication of the findings is that to promote any real decline in fertility, emphasis should be placed on providing higher education and work opportunities for young women as an alternative to early marriage.     

Effect of infant mortality on subsequent fertility in Pakistan and Sri Lanka

This study used data from the 1975 World Fertility Surveys in Pakistan and Sri Lanka to examine the association between fertility and infant mortality. A positive association between the mean number of children ever born and the number of child deaths was found in both rural and urban areas of each country. In Pakistan, women with no child loss had 3.3 children ever born while those who lost 1 child had 4.7 children; in Sri Lanka the figures were 3.5 and 5.4 children, respectively. However, child replacement was much less marked when controls were introduced for demographic and socioeconomic factors. When deaths at specific parities were examined, and age and time since previous birth were controlled, child replacement at the 1st parity was reduced to .3 in Pakistan and .2 in Sri Lanka. Further control for a series of socioeconomic factors (e.g. husband's level of education, husband's occupation, household structure, religion, standard of living) reduced the child replacement ratio to .2 children in Pakistan and zero in Sri Lanka. Replacement was slightly more pronounced when there were fewer surviving male children. This analysis suggests that the relationship between infant mortality and fertility is complex. A possibility that could not be explored in this study is that variation in fertilitty may itself be responsible for some of the variation in infant mortality.     

The effect of female education on marital fertility in different size communities of Mexico

Based on a very large sample of married women aged 15 to 49 from the 1970 census of Mexico, the effect of literacy and education on the number of children ever born in different size communities is investigated. While cumulative marital fertility tends to be inversely related to community size, the overall shape of the education-fertility relationship is generally similar in rural, semi-urban, small urban, and large urban localities. These results combined with those for literacy do not support the hypothesis of an urbanization or a literacy threshold at which women's schooling begins to reduce family size. Literate wives have slightly more children than illiterate wives in rural areas, but in more urbanized regions this differential inverses and seems to widen with each increase in size of the community. Fertility is slightly higher at 1 to 3 years of primary school than at no education; it declines slightly at 4 to 5 years primary, and then declines substantially at complete primary, secondary, and preparatory/university levels. A statistically significant but small interaction between education and residence on cumulative marital fertility is noted. The overall greater impact of female education on cumulative marital fertility in urban as compared to semi-urban as compared to rural communities of Mexico is primarily due to the proportion of married women with fertility depressing educational backgrounds rather than to a markedly different effect of education, per se, on fertility. The results emphasize the country-wide importance of completion of the entire 6-year primary cycle.     

Covariates of age at first birth in Guyana: a hazards model analysis

Analysis of data from the Guyana Fertility Survey on the trends and covariates of age at 1st birth among various birth cohorts of women ever in union indicates that an early entry into union is associated with young age at 1st birth and higher number of children born. Multivariate analysis showed that women with higher education, urban residence, and entry into 1st birth compared to others, and that young women are delaying their 1st birth for longer durations than older women. Work status of women before 1st birth and the starting age of union seem to be the 2 major contributory factors for age at 1st birth. Noticeably, the role of education has changed and is now more significant among younger cohorts than among older ones for 1st birth timing.     

A note on the determinants of breastfeeding durations in an African country

This paper utilizes data from the 1977-78 Kenya Fertility Survey, 1 component of the World Fertility Survey, to analyze the determinants of breastfeeding durations for women 15 to 50 years old who had their last-but-1 live birth between 3 and 15 years prior to the interview. Comparisons are made with the findings fro m the World Fertility Surveys in 8 other developing countries in Asia and Latin America. Findings indicate that literacy, urban residence, secondary school education, and modern employment reduce the duration of breastfeeding in Kenya. In addition, the subgroups of women who appear to be curtailing breastfeeding are growing in proportional size or are composed of women may be innovators or leaders. A continuation of this pattern into the future may increase levels of infant morbidity and mortality and, in the absence of increased modern contraceptive practice, may increase the societal level of fertility. The death of the infant curtails the period of breastfeeding. Although there is a pronounced preference for male children in Kenya, this preference does not lead to differential durations of breastfeeding by sex of child. About 10% of Kenyan women used contraception in the last closed interval. Parity and age explain less than 1% of the variation in duration of breastfeeding in Kenya. Kenyan women are among the least likely to have attended secondary school, to have worked since marriage, and to have used modern contraception. The most traditional groups of Kenyan women, those who are Muslim or who are in polygamous unions, breastfeed for the longest durations. The Kenya Fertility Survey suggests that the subgroup of women with some secondary school education is growing considerably. Kikuyu women may be regarded as innovators in many respects. In addition to having shorter breastfeeding durations, they are the least likely to be in polygamous unions or to want more children, and they are the most likely to be using contraception.     

Determinants of breast-feeding and post-partum amenorrhoea in Orissa

A life table analysis is made of the duration of breast-feeding and post-partum amenorrhoea in Orissa, India, taking one variable at a time using data from a baseline survey of fertility and mortality (BSFM) conducted on the lines of the World Fertility Survey. Then a multivariate (proportional hazard) analysis showed that socioeconomic factors including residence, caste status and education influence the breast-feeding and post-partum amenorrhoea periods. There was no effect of maternal age on the length of breast-feeding, but mean length of post-partum amenorrhoea varied with age. The durations of breast-feeding and post-partum amenorrhoea are strongly related.     

Fertility determinants in the oil region of Mexico

This study analyzes fertility determinants in the oil region of Mexico, consisting of the states of Veracruz, Tabasco, and Campeche. Data are from the 1980 Mexican census and the unit of analysis is the municipio. The regression models, in which the dependent variables of children ever born and child-woman ratio are examined, reveal religious variables to be most significant, with greater fertility for non-Catholics and persons with no religion than for Catholics. Also of great importance are economic variables. Literacy and urbanization, both "classical" Mexican fertility variables, reduce fertility. There are major differences among three urban/rural and three indigenous language subsamples. Results are discussed vis-a-vis demographic theories and prior research.     

Variation in wealth and educational drivers of fertility decline across 45 countries

Fertility decline in human populations is an inherent evolutionary puzzle with major demographic, socio-cultural and evolutionary consequences. The individual level predictors of fertility decline are numerous, but the way these effects vary by country and how they are causally mediated by other factors has received relatively little attention. Here we take a multilevel approach to compare similarities and differences in the primary predictors of contemporary fertility declines—wealth and education—across 45 countries in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, the Caribbean, and the Middle East using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected from 2003 to 2015. We use multilevel models to understand variation in the slopes of these predictors on fertility, and structural equation models to examine the causal pathways by which they take their effects, focusing on four mediating variables: local mortality and birth rates, women’s work status, and contraceptive use. We find that associations between wealth and fertility differ substantially across populations, while associations between education and fertility are consistently negative. The mediators also vary: community-level birth rates and women’s contraceptive use are important mediators between education, wealth and the number of children born across a wide variety of countries, but community-level mortality rates and women’s work status are not. We discuss our results in the context of different causal pathways that reflect cultural and biological evolutionary dynamics as simultaneous and interacting drivers of fertility decline.     

Infant and child mortality in Bangladesh

Socioeconomic differences and trends in infant and child mortality in Bangladesh are examined using data from the 1975 World Fertility Survey and 1979 Contraceptive Prevalence Survery. There is evidence of some recent decline in infant mortality and child mortality. Logit analysis of infant and child mortality indicates that sociodemographic variables such as mother's education, recent period, or higher birth orders, has significant independent effects upon the reduction of infant and child mortality. Other variables such as fetal loss, father's education, or land ownership had no consistent significant effect. On the other hand the effect of urban residence on infant and child mortality was positive after the control of sociodemographic variables. Mere concentration on the supply of modern medical services may bring limited returns unless they are reinforced by appropriate social changes, in particular those affecting the socioeconomic status of women. Educated mothers are likely to belong to higher income households, have better knowledge of how to care for children, and can bring more resources to the care of a sick child.