Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in phenotypic traits predict the dynamics of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes, the most important vectors of human malaria. Anopheles gambiae dynamics were monitored over a six-month period of seasonal growth and decline. The population exhibited density-dependent feedback, with the carrying capacity being modified by rainfall (97% wAIC(c) support). The individual phenotypic expression of the maternal (p = 0.0001) and current (p = 0.040) body size positively influenced population growth. Our field-based evidence uniquely demonstrates that individual fitness can have population-level impacts and, furthermore, can mitigate the impact of exogenous drivers (e.g. rainfall) in species whose reproduction depends upon it. Once frontline interventions have suppressed mosquito densities, attempts to eliminate malaria with supplementary vector control tools may be attenuated by increased population growth and individual fitness.     

Interannual dynamics of aerial and arboreal green spruce aphid populations

Partial defoliation of spruce by the green spruce aphid Elatobium abietinum (Walker) is a recurrent event in European and, increasingly, North American forests. The patterns of insect abundance on trees have never been satisfactorily described by a numerical model despite considerable knowledge of endogenous and exogenous factors in the population dynamics of the species. Long-term field population estimates of the aphid on foliage provided the opportunity to evaluate such a model. Unlike comparable models for tree-dwelling aphids, this was also applicable to almost completely independent aphid field data derived from the Rothamsted Insect Survey’s nationwide network of suction traps. Although based on relatively few parameters, the model was robust in its predictions of alate aphids geographically remote from the forest in which the original population was estimated. The population maximum, which causes the greatest forest damage, is reached in early summer and can be predicted from knowledge of winter temperature (chill bouts), spring temperature (thermal sum), and interannual negative feedback (density dependence). The model provides confirmation that alate populations of spruce aphids, upon which a number of other extensive studies have been based, are ultimately influenced by similar endogenous and climatic factors and that they are a reasonable proxy for aphids on trees.     

Cladogenesis of the European brown hare (Lepus europaeus Pallas, 1778)

A substantial portion of today’s biodiversity is attributed to the climatic oscillations of the Pleistocene Ice Ages. Gradual but dramatic climate changes were accompanied by expansion, contraction, and isolation of populations, promoting the accumulation of genome differences and adaptations in refugial populations and resulting in allopatric differentiation in a variety of taxa. In the present study, partial mitochondrial DNA sequences of the widely distributed European brown hare (Lepus europaeus) were analyzed to test whether the species’ present genetic structure is the result of postglacial re-colonization of Europe from Asia Minor (clade A) and the Balkans (clade B) only, as suggested previously, or if additional refugia are likely. Analyses indicated the presence of an additional refugium (Italy, clade I). The genealogic network of Italian hares displayed the tree-like structure expected from refugial populations, whereas central European brown hare haplotypes revealed a clear star-phylogeny indicative of past-bottleneck population growth. This population size expansion, which was confirmed by mismatch analysis, was estimated to have occurred ∼50–55 thousand years ago (kya). The divergence of clade A* from the remaining matrilines is estimated at 239 kya, whereas the divergence of the ancestors of clades B* and I from A* occurred about 128 kya. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Non-linear feedback processes and a latitudinal gradient in the climatic effects determine green spruce aphid outbreaks in the UK

The role of climatic fluctuations in determining the dynamics of insect populations has been a classical problem in population ecology. Here, we use long-term annual data on green spruce aphid populations at nine localities in the UK for determining the importance of endogenous processes, local weather and large-scale climatic factors. We rely on diagnostic and modelling tools from population dynamic theory to analyse these long-term data and to determine the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and local weather as exogenous factors influencing aphid dynamics. Our modelling suggests that the key elements determining population fluctuations in green spruce aphid populations in the UK are the strong non-linear feedback structure, the high potential for population growth and the effects of winter and spring weather. The results indicate that the main effect of the NAO on green spruce aphid populations is operating through the effect of winter temperatures on the maximum per capita growth rate (R_m). In particular, we can predict quite accurately the occurrence of an outbreak by using a simple logistic model with weather as a perturbation effect. However, model predictions using different climatic variables showed a clear geographical signature. The NAO and winter temperature were best for predicting observed dynamics toward the southern localities, while spring temperature was a much better predictor of aphid dynamics at northern localities. Although aphid species are characterized by complex life-cycles, we emphasize the value of simple and general population dynamic models in predicting their dynamics.     

Demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in semi-arid Chile: seasonality, feedback structure and climate

Here we present, to the authors' knowledge for the very first time for a small marsupial, a thorough analysis of the demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in western South America. We test the relative importance of feedback structure and climatic factors (rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index) in explaining the temporal variation in the demography of the mouse opossum. The demographic information was incorporated into a stage-structured population dynamics model and the model's predictions were compared with observed patterns. The mouse opossum's capture rates showed seasonal (within-year) and between-year variability, with individuals having higher capture rates during late summer and autumn and lower capture rates during winter and spring. There was also a strong between-year effect on capture probabilities. The reproductive (the fraction of reproductively active individuals) and recruitment rates showed a clear seasonal and a between-year pattern of variation with the peak of reproductive activity occuring during winter and early spring. In addition, the fraction of reproductive individuals was positively related to annual rainfall, while population density and annual rainfall positively influenced the recruitment rate. The survival rates were negatively related to annual rainfall. The average finite population growth rate during the study period was estimated to be 1.011 +/- 0.0019 from capture-recapture estimates. While the annual growth rate estimated from the seasonal linear matrix models was 1.026, the subadult and adult survival and maturation rates represent between 54% (winter) and 81% (summer) of the impact on the annual growth rate.     

Population dynamics of a diverse rodent assemblage in mixed grass-shrub habitat, southeastern Colorado, 1995-2000

We followed seasonal and year-to-year population dynamics for a diverse rodent assemblage in a short-grass prairie ecosystem in southeastern Colorado (USA) for 6 yr. We captured 2,798 individual rodents (range, one to 812 individuals per species) belonging to 19 species. The two most common species, deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and western harvest mice (Reithrodontomys megalotis), generally had population peaks in winter and nadirs in summer; several other murid species demonstrated autumn peaks and spring nadirs; heteromyids were infrequently captured in winter, and populations generally peaked in summer or autumn. Inter-annual trends indicated an interactive effect between temperature and precipitation. Conditions associated with low rodent populations or population declines were high precipitation during cold periods (autumn and winter) and low precipitation during warm periods (spring and summer). Severity of adverse effects varied by species. Heteromyids, for example, were apparently not negatively affected by the hot, dry spring and summer of 2000. Cross-correlations for the temporal series of relative population abundances between species pairs (which are affected by both seasonal and interannual population dynamics) revealed positive associations among most murids and among most heteromyids, but there were negative associations between murids and heteromyids. These results have important implications for those attempting to model population dynamics of rodent populations for purposes of predicting disease risk.     

Direct negative density‐dependence in a pond‐breeding frog population

Understanding population dynamics is critical for the management of animal populations. Comparatively little is known about the relative importance of endogenous (i.e. density‐dependent) and exogenous (i.e. density‐independent) factors on the population dynamics of amphibians with complex life cycles. We examined the potential effects of density‐dependent and ‐independent (i.e. climatic) factors on population dynamics by analyzing a 15‐yr time series data of the agile frog Rana dalmatina population from Târnava Mare Valley, Romania. We used two statistical models: 1) the partial rate correlation function to identify the feedback structure and the potential time lags in the time series data and 2) a Gompertz state‐space model to simultaneously investigate direct and delayed density dependence as well as climatic effects on population growth rate. We found evidence for direct negative density dependence, whereas delayed density dependence and climate did not show a strong influence on population growth rate. Here we demonstrated that direct density dependence rather than delayed density dependence or climate determined the dynamics of our study population. Our results confirm the findings of many experimental studies and suggest that density dependence may buffer amphibian populations against environmental stress. Consequently, it may not be easy to scale up from individual‐level effects to population‐level effects.     

Population dynamics of rice rats (a Hantavirus reservoir) in southern Chile: feedback structure and non-linear effects of climatic oscillations

We studied a fluctuating population of the long-tail rice rat ( Oligoryzomys longicaudatus ), the main Hantavirus vector in southern Chile, and spanning 19 years of monitoring. We determined that a first-order feedback structure and non-linear effects of Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAOI) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) explain 96% of the variation in annual per capita population growth rates. One important result of this study is that first-order feedback structure captures the essential features of population dynamics of long-tailed rice rats. This regulatory structure suggests that rice rats are limited by food, space or predators and regulated by intra-specific competition. The first-order dynamics observed in long-tailed rice rats strongly suggests that Hantavirus have no harmful effects on survival or reproductive processes. Besides the non-linear climatic signature in population dynamics, the periodic event of bamboo-flowering and mast seeding strongly influence rice rats population growth rates. Because of this, bamboo flowering may be used as a signal for forecasting long-tail rice rats outbreaks and for implementing information and health policies to avoid human-rodent contacts in specific areas. The observed effects of the two large-scale climatic indexes that influence climatic variability along southern Pacific Ocean, the AAOI and the SOI, emphasizes the role of considering non-linear feedback structures and climatic forces for understanding small rodent population dynamics. Because long-tailed rice rats represent the major Hantavirus reservoir in southern Chile and Argentina, we need to gain an in-depth understanding of the structure and functioning of these small rodent populations in face of the potential consequences of global change and climatic fluctuations.     

Treeline dynamics in relation to climatic variability in the central Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China

Aim Climate variability may be an important mediating agent of ecosystem dynamics in cold, arid regions such as the central Tianshan Mountains, north‐western China. Tree‐ring chronologies and the age structure of a Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana) forest were developed to examine treeline dynamics in recent decades in relation to climatic variability. Of particular interest was whether tree‐ring growth and population recruitment patterns responded similarly to climate warming. Location The study was conducted in eight stands that ranged from 2500 m to 2750 m a.s.l. near the treeline in the Tianchi Nature Reserve (43°45′?43°59′ N, 88°00′?88°20′ E) in the central Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, northwestern China. Methods Tree‐ring cores were collected and used to develop tree‐ring chronologies. The age of sampled trees was determined from basal cores sampled as close as possible to the ground. Population age structure and recruitment information were obtained using an age–d.b.h. (diameter at breast height) regression from the sampled cores and the d.b.h. measured on all trees in the plots. Ring‐width chronologies and tree age structure were both used to investigate the relationship between treeline dynamics and climate change. Results Comparisons with the climatic records showed that both the radial growth of trees and tree recruitment were influenced positively by temperature and precipitation in the cold high treeline zone, but the patterns of their responses differed. The annual variation in tree rings could be explained largely by the average monthly minimum temperatures during February and August of the current year and by the monthly precipitation of the previous August and January, which had a significant and positive effect on tree radial growth. P. schrenkiana recruitment was influenced mainly by consecutive years of high minimum summer temperatures and high precipitation during spring. Over the last several decades, the treeline did not show an obvious upward shift and new recruitment was rare. Some trees had established at the treeline at least 200 years ago. Recruitment increased until the early 20th century (1910s) but then decreased with poor recruitment over the past several decades (1950–2000). Main conclusions There were strong associations between climatic change and ring‐width patterns, and with recruitments in Schrenk spruce. Average minimum temperatures in February and August, and total precipitation in the previous August and January, had a positive effect on tree‐ring width, and several consecutive years of high minimum summer temperature and spring precipitation was a main factor favouring the establishment of P. schrenkiana following germination within the treeline ecotone. Both dendroclimatology and recruitment analysis were useful and compatible to understand and reconstruct treeline dynamics in the central Tianshan Mountains.     

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.     

Relative roles of density and rainfall on the short-term regulation of Mediterraneanwood mouse <Emphasis Type="Italic">Apodemus sylvaticus</Emphasis> populations

This study aims to quantify the relative effects of density-dependent (feedback structure) and density-independent climatic factors (rainfall) in regulating the short-term population dynamics of wood mice Apodemus sylvaticus Linnaeus, 1758 in three Mediterranean forest plots. Rainfall and density explained additively 62% of variation in population growth rates (38 and 24%, respectively), with no differences among study plots. Population growth rate was positive during autumn–winter and negative during spring–summer during a 2.5-year period. Population rate of change was negatively affected by wood mouse density during the normal breeding season of Mediterranean mice (autumn–winter) but not outside it. Growth rate was positively affected by the cumulative amount of rainfall three months before the normal breeding season, but not during it. Female breeding activity and recruitment did not differ among plots, and was not affected by density or rainfall. However, recruitment was positively affected by density and, marginally, by rainfall. Our results suggest that intraspecific competition (density-dependence) and food availability (rainfall) are equally important factors driving wood mouse population dynamics in Mediterranean forests. Mechanisms underlying density-dependence during the breeding season seemed to be based on food-mediated survival rather than on behaviourally-mediated reproduction. Taken together, these results indicate a high sensitivity of marginal Mediterranean wood mouse populations to the expected climate changes in the Mediterranean region.     

Population dynamics of a South American rodent: seasonal structure interacting with climate,density dependence and predator effects

Understanding the role of interactions between intrinsic feedback loops and external climatic forces is one of the central challenges within the field of population ecology. For rodent dynamics, the seasonal structure of the environment necessitates changes between two stages: reproductive and non-reproductive. Nevertheless, the interactions between seasonality, climate, density dependence and predators have been generally ignored. We demonstrate that direct climate effects, the nonlinear effect of predators and the nonlinear first-order feedback embedded in a seasonal structure are key elements underlying the large and irregular fluctuations in population numbers exhibited by a small rodent in a semi-arid region of central Chile. We found that factors influencing population growth rates clearly differ between breeding and non-breeding seasons. In addition, we detected nonlinear density dependencies as well as nonlinear and differential effects of generalist and specialist predators. Recent climatic changes may account for dramatic perturbations of the rodent's population dynamics. Changes in the predator guild induced by climate are likely to result, through the food web, in a large impact on small rodent demography and population dynamics. Assuming such interactions to be typical of ecological systems, we conclude that appropriate predictions of the ecological consequences of climate change will depend on having an in-depth understanding of the community-weather system.     

Rodents, plants, and precipitation: spatial and temporal dynamics of consumers and resources

Resource/consumer dynamics are potentially mediated by both limiting resources and biotic interactions. We examined temporal correlations between precipitation, plant cover, and rodent density, with varying time lags using long-term data from two sites in the Chihuahuan desert of North America: the Sevilleta Long-term Ecological Research site (LTER), New Mexico, USA and a site near Portal, Arizona, USA. We also calculated the spatial correlations in precipitation, plant cover, and rodent dynamics among six sites, five at Sevilleta and one at Portal. At Sevilleta, all three variables were temporally correlated, with plant cover responding to precipitation during the same growing season and rodent populations lagging at least one season behind. At Portal, plant stem count was also correlated with precipitation during the same growing season, but there was no significant correlation between rodents and either precipitation or plant growth. Spatial correlations in plant cover and rodent populations between sites reflected the localized nature of summer rainfall, so that sites with highly correlated summer precipitation exhibited higher correlations in plant cover and rodent populations. In general, our results indicate that limiting resources influence consumer dynamics, but these dynamics also depend crucially on the biotic interactions in the system.     

Winter and summer weather modulate the demography of wild turkeys at the northern edge of the species distribution

Temperate species occupying habitats at the northern limit of their geographical distribution are limited by weather and climatic conditions. Such conditions often directly affect population dynamics, and thus, influence shifts in distribution via changes in demographic parameters. We examined this question by following three distinct populations of wild turkeys inhabiting areas exposed to a gradient of meteorological conditions at the northern limit of the species distribution. Four years of radio-telemetry on 181 birds and monitoring of 95 nests revealed that population demographics of wild turkeys were influenced by snow depth, winter temperature and summer rainfall. During winter, survival of turkeys decreased drastically when snow depth remained >30 cm for >10 days and also decreased as temperatures got colder. In the spring, snow persistence delayed nest initiation, whereas nest survival was negatively affected by rainfall. Our findings show that the effects of critical meteorological factors such as snow and temperature can be compounded when both reach the limit of a species tolerance simultaneously.     

Demographic patterns of a widespread long‐lived tree are associated with rainfall and disturbances along rainfall gradients in SE Australia

Predicting species distributions with changing climate has often relied on climatic variables, but increasingly there is recognition that disturbance regimes should also be included in distribution models. We examined how changes in rainfall and disturbances along climatic gradients determined demographic patterns in a widespread and long‐lived tree species, Callitris glaucophylla in SE Australia. We examined recruitment since 1950 in relation to annual (200–600 mm) and seasonal (summer, uniform, winter) rainfall gradients, edaphic factors (topography), and disturbance regimes (vertebrate grazing [tenure and species], fire). A switch from recruitment success to failure occurred at 405 mm mean annual rainfall, coincident with a change in grazing regime. Recruitment was lowest on farms with rabbits below 405 mm rainfall (mean = 0–0.89 cohorts) and highest on less‐disturbed tenures with no rabbits above 405 mm rainfall (mean = 3.25 cohorts). Moderate levels of recruitment occurred where farms had no rabbits or less disturbed tenures had rabbits above and below 405 mm rainfall (mean = 1.71–1.77 cohorts). These results show that low annual rainfall and high levels of introduced grazing has led to aging, contracting populations, while higher annual rainfall with low levels of grazing has led to younger, expanding populations. This study demonstrates how demographic patterns vary with rainfall and spatial variations in disturbances, which are linked in complex ways to climatic gradients. Predicting changes in tree distribution with climate change requires knowledge of how rainfall and key disturbances (tenure, vertebrate grazing) will shift along climatic gradients.     

Cyclic voles and shrews and non-cyclic mice in a marginal grassland within European temperate forest

Cyclic population dynamics of small mammals are not restricted to the boreal and arctic zones of Eurasia and North America, but long-term data series from lower latitudes are still less common. We demonstrated here the presence of periodic oscillations in small mammal populations in eastern Poland using 22-year (1986–2007) trapping data from marginal meadow and river valley grasslands located in the extensive temperate woodland of Białowieża Primeval Forest. The two most common species inhabiting meadows and river valleys, root vole Microtus oeconomus and common shrew Sorex araneus, exhibited synchronous periodic changes, characterised by a 3-year time lag as indicated by an autocorrelation function. Moreover, the cycles of these two species were synchronous within both habitats. Population dynamics of the striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius was not cyclic. However, this species regularly reached maximum density 1 year before the synchronized peak of root voles and common shrews, which may suggest the existence of interspecific competition. Dynamics of all three species was dominated by direct density-dependent process, whereas delayed density dependent feedback was significant only in the root vole and common shrew. Climatic factors acting in winter and spring (affecting mainly survival and initial reproduction rates) were more important than those acting in summer and autumn and affected significantly only the common shrew. High temperatures in winter and spring had positive effects on autumn-to-autumn changes in abundance of this species, whereas deep snow in combination with high rainfall in spring negatively affected population increase rates in common shrew.     

Strong “bottom‐up” influences on small mammal populations: State‐space model analyses from long‐term studies

“Bottom‐up” influences, that is, masting, plus population density and climate, commonly influence woodland rodent demography. However, “top‐down” influences (predation) also intervene. Here, we assess the impacts of masting, climate, and density on rodent populations placed in the context of what is known about “top‐down” influences. To explain between‐year variations in bank vole Myodes glareolus and wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus population demography, we applied a state‐space model to 33 years of catch‐mark‐release live‐trapping, winter temperature, and precise mast‐collection data. Experimental mast additions aided interpretation. Rodent numbers in European ash Fraxinus excelsior woodland were estimated (May/June, November/December). December–March mean minimum daily temperature represented winter severity. Total marked adult mice/voles (and juveniles in May/June) provided density indices validated against a model‐generated population estimate; this allowed estimation of the structure of a time‐series model and the demographic impacts of the climatic/biological variables. During two winters of insignificant fruit‐fall, 6.79 g/m² sterilized ash seed (as fruit) was distributed over an equivalent woodland similarly live‐trapped. September–March fruit‐fall strongly increased bank vole spring reproductive rate and winter and summer population growth rates; colder winters weakly reduced winter population growth. September–March fruit‐fall and warmer winters marginally increased wood mouse spring reproductive rate and September–December fruit‐fall weakly elevated summer population growth. Density dependence significantly reduced both species' population growth. Fruit‐fall impacts on demography still appeared after a year. Experimental ash fruit addition confirmed its positive influence on bank vole winter population growth with probable moderation by colder temperatures. The models show the strong impact of masting as a “bottom‐up” influence on rodent demography, emphasizing independent masting and weather influences; delayed effects of masting; and the importance of density dependence and its interaction with masting. We conclude that these rodents show strong “bottom‐up” and density‐dependent influences on demography moderated by winter temperature. “Top‐down” influences appear weak and need further investigation.     

Mowing strategies for controlling Cirsium arvense in a permanent pasture in New Zealand compared using a matrix model

Defoliation has frequently been proposed as a means of controlling Cirsium arvense (L.) Scop. (Californian thistle, Canada thistle, creeping thistle, perennial thistle), an economically damaging pastoral weed in temperate regions of the world, but its optimization has remained obscure. We developed a matrix model for the population dynamics of C. arvense in sheep‐grazed pasture in New Zealand that accounts for the effects of aerial shoot defoliation on a population's photosynthetic opportunity and consequential overwintered root biomass, enabling mowing regimes varying in the seasonal timing and frequency of defoliation to be compared. The model showed that the long‐term population dynamics of the weed is influenced by both the timing and frequency of mowing; a single‐yearly mowing, regardless of time of year, resulted in stasis or population growth, while in contrast, 14 of 21 possible twice‐yearly monthly mowing regimes, mainly those with mowing in late spring, summer, and early autumn, resulted in population decline. Population decline was greatest (with population density halving each year) with twice‐yearly mowing either in late spring and late summer, early summer and late summer, or early summer and early autumn. Our results indicate that mowing can be effective in reducing populations of C. arvense in pasture in the long term if conducted twice each year when the initial mowing is conducted in mid spring followed by a subsequent mowing from mid summer to early autumn. These mowing regimes reduce the photosynthetic opportunity of the C. arvense population and hence its ability to form the overwintering creeping roots upon which population growth depends.     

Mechanisms that influence sex ratio variation in the invasive hymenopteran Sirex noctilio in South Africa

Sirex noctilio is an economically important invasive pest of commercial pine forestry in the Southern Hemisphere. Newly established invasive populations of this woodwasp are characterized by highly male‐biased sex ratios that subsequently revert to those seen in the native range. This trend was not observed in the population of S. noctilio from the summer rainfall regions in South Africa, which remained highly male‐biased for almost a decade. The aim of this study was to determine the cause of this persistent male bias. As an explanation for this pattern, we test hypotheses related to mating success, female investment in male versus female offspring, and genetic diversity affecting diploid male production due to complementary sex determination. We found that 61% of females in a newly established S. noctilio population were mated. Microsatellite data analysis showed that populations of S. noctilio from the summer rainfall regions in South Africa are far less genetically diverse than those from the winter rainfall region, with mean Nei's unbiased gene diversity indexes of 0.056 and 0.273, respectively. These data also identified diploid males at low frequencies in both the winter (5%) and summer (2%) rainfall regions. The results suggest the presence of a complementary sex determination mechanism in S. noctilio, but imply that reduced genetic diversity is not the main driver of the male bias observed in the summer rainfall region. Among all the factors considered, selective investment in sons appears to have the most significant influence on male bias in S. noctilio populations. Why this investment remains different in frontier or early invasive populations is not clear but could be influenced by females laying unfertilized eggs to avoid diploid male production in populations with a high genetic relatedness.     

Northern Atlantic Oscillation effects on the temporal and spatial dynamics of green spruce aphid populations in the UK

1. The role of climate variability in determining the spatial and temporal patterns of numerical fluctuations is a central problem in ecology. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index on the population dynamics and spatial synchrony of the green spruce aphid Elatobium abietinum across the UK was shown. 2. Fifteen overlapping time series within the UK were analysed; we used nonparametric models for determining the feedback nonlinear structure and the climatic effects. The spatial synchrony of these populations and the relationship between synchrony and NAO was estimated. 3. From the 15 time series across the UK, 11 showed positive and significant NAO effects. In most of the cases the NAO effects were nonlinear showing strong negative effects of low values. The NAO variation improve the explained variance of the first-order feedback models in 14.5%; ranging from 0% to 48%. All data showed strong-nonlinear (concave) feedback structure. In most of the localities the explained variance by the first-order feedback was about 50-60%. 4. The spatial synchrony of the per capita growth rates and residuals is high across long distances for those populations affected by NAO. The correlation function predicts a spatial scale of synchrony of about 350-400 km for NAO influenced populations. 5. We think that simple population theoretical models describing the link between NAO fluctuations and green spruce aphid dynamics may be fundamental for predicting and simulating the consequences of different climatic scenarios of the future.